Market Performance - The Sci-Tech 50 Index decreased by 0.59% and the ChiNext Index fell by 0.82% over the last five trading days, while the large-cap value index rose by 0.01% and the large-cap growth index declined by 0.39% [1] - The Shanghai Stock Exchange 50 Index increased by 0.20%, and the small-cap index represented by the CSI 2000 rose by 1.09%, with defense and military, as well as oil and petrochemical sectors performing well, while telecommunications and comprehensive sectors lagged [1] Valuation Levels - As of December 31, 2025, the static PE ratio of the CSI All Share Index is at the 82nd percentile, with the Shanghai 50 and CSI 300 both at 75%, and the ChiNext Index close to 58% [1] - The CSI 500 and CSI 1000 are at 62% and 64% respectively, indicating that the ChiNext Index's valuation is relatively at the historical median level [1] Fund Flows - In the last five trading days, ETF inflows amounted to 25.6 billion yuan, and the margin trading balance increased by approximately 23.8 billion yuan, with an average daily trading volume of 208.23 billion yuan across the two markets [2] Thematic Investment - The latest thematic allocation includes sectors such as chemicals, non-bank financials, and satellite communications, specifically focusing on sub-indices like the CSI Sub-Industry Chemical Index, the National Index for Commercial Satellite Communications, and the CSI 300 Non-Bank Financial Index [2][3] AI and Machine Learning Insights - A convolutional neural network (CNN) model has been utilized to analyze charted price and volume data, mapping learned features to industry thematic sectors, indicating a trend towards AI-driven investment strategies [11]

风险提示：市场有风险，投资需谨慎。本文为AI大模型自动发布，任何在本文出现的信息（包括但不 限于个股、评论、预测、图表、指标、理论、任何形式的表述等）均只作为参考，不构成个人投资建 议。 来源：新浪基金∞工作室 港股通非银ETF（513750）业绩比较基准为同期中证港股通非银行金融主题指数收益率(使用估值汇率 折算)，管理人为广发基金管理有限公司，基金经理为罗国庆、曹世宇，成立（2023-11-10）以来回报为 73.50%，近一个月回报为4.78%。 12月29日，港股通非银ETF（513750）跌1.42%，成交额18.20亿元。当日份额增加4.42亿份，最新份额 为157.54亿份，近20个交易日份额增加7.63亿份。最新资产净值计算值为273.38亿元。 ...

2025 年 12 月 30 日 行业研究/行业周报 非银行金融行业近一年市场表现 资料来源：常闻 相关报告： 【山证非银行金融】中央经济工作会议 定调资本市场，关注板块投资价值-【山 证非银】行业周报（20251208-20251214）： 2025.12.17 券商杠杆空间拓宽-【山证非银】行业周 报（20251201-20251207）： 2025.12.11 孙田田 执业登记编码：S0760518030001 电话：0351-8686900 邮箱：suntiantian@sxzq.com 刘丽 执业登记编码：S0760511050001 电话：0351--8686985 邮箱：liuli2@sxzq.com 彭皓辰 投资要点 健全"长钱长投"政策环境。近日，中国人民银行发布《中国 金融稳定报告（2025）》，全面总结我国金融稳定工作进展，并对下 一阶段重点任务作出部署。报告提出，中国证监会、财政部、人力 资源社会保障部、中国人民银行、金融监管总局等相关部门将立足 大局，加强协作，形成合力，在中央金融办统筹协调下，进一步提 升工作的前瞻性、主动性和针对性，着力健全有利于"长钱长投" 的制度政策环境，显著 ...

Group 1: Market Outlook - The equity market is expected to continue its upward trend due to clear domestic policy, strong economic growth momentum, and relatively loose market liquidity[3] - Investors are advised to actively position for the spring market, focusing on sectors with improving performance and benefiting from policies[3] Group 2: Recommended Stocks - BeiGene (688235.SH): Global sales of its core product, Zanubrutinib, reached $2.78 billion in the first three quarters of 2025, a year-on-year increase of 53.2%[4] - Beijing Junzheng (300223.SZ): The storage cycle is on the rise, and the company is expected to benefit from the L3 autonomous driving market[11] - Haiguang Information (688041.SH): The company is a leading domestic computing power provider, with revenue maintaining rapid growth in the first three quarters of 2025[18] - Daotong Technology (688208.SH): The company has seen rapid revenue growth and is advancing its AI strategy[26] - Penghui Energy (300438.SZ): The company ranks among the top three globally in household storage cell shipments in the first three quarters of 2025[32] - Goldwind Technology (002202.SZ): The gross margin for wind turbine and component business reached 7.97% in the first half of 2025, showing significant improvement[39] - Chifeng Gold (600988.SH): The company is expected to benefit from rising gold prices and increased production from new mining projects[46] - Luoyang Molybdenum (603993.SH): The company is positioned to benefit from rising copper prices and increased production[52] - Huaxin Cement (600801.SH): The company reported a 120.7% year-on-year increase in net profit attributable to shareholders in Q3 2025[57] - China Pacific Insurance (601601.SH): The company has maintained a high dividend yield, exceeding 3% since 2018[65]

Macro Liquidity - The US dollar index has declined, and the degree of inversion in the China-US interest rate spread has narrowed. The nominal and real yields of 10-year US Treasuries have both decreased, indicating a drop in inflation expectations [2][14] - Offshore dollar liquidity has marginally eased, while the domestic interbank funding environment remains balanced. The yield spread between 10-year and 1-year government bonds continues to widen [2][19] Market Trading Activity - Overall market trading activity has increased, with many indices experiencing a rise in volatility. Sectors such as retail, military, consumer services, light industry, and textiles are seeing trading activity above the 80th percentile [3][25] - Most indices have shown increased volatility, with sectors like communication, electronics, electric new energy, and chemicals remaining above the 80th historical percentile [3][32] - Market liquidity indicators have declined, with liquidity metrics across sectors remaining below the 70th historical percentile [3][37] Sector Research Activity - Research activity is high in sectors such as electronics, pharmaceuticals, electric new energy, machinery, and non-ferrous metals. The research interest in automotive, computing, communication, and chemicals is also on the rise [4][43] Analyst Profit Forecasts - Analysts have raised profit forecasts for the entire A-share market for 2025 and 2026. The proportion of stocks with upward revisions in profit forecasts has increased across the board [4][51] - Specific sectors such as real estate, construction, coal, consumer services, and home appliances have also seen upward adjustments in profit forecasts for 2025 and 2026 [4][51] - The profit forecasts for the CSI 300 and SSE 50 indices for 2025 and 2026 have been revised upwards, while the profit forecasts for the CSI 500 have been adjusted downwards [4][51] Northbound Trading Activity - Northbound trading activity has decreased, continuing a net sell-off of A-shares. The ratio of buy-sell amounts in sectors like communication, non-ferrous metals, and consumer services has increased, while it has decreased in electronics, computing, and banking [5][29] - For stocks with holdings below 30 million shares, net buying has primarily occurred in computing, non-bank financials, and coal sectors, while net selling has been observed in communication, non-ferrous metals, and automotive sectors [5][31] Margin Financing Activity - Margin financing activity has rapidly increased, reaching the highest point since November 2025. The net buying has been concentrated in sectors like electronics, electric new energy, and communication, while net selling has occurred in non-bank financials, oil and petrochemicals, and retail sectors [6][35] - The proportion of financing purchases has increased in sectors such as consumer services, banking, and electric new energy [6][38] Fund Activity - The positions of actively managed equity funds have continued to rise, with significant net subscriptions in ETFs, particularly those related to institutional investors. Active equity funds have mainly increased their positions in non-ferrous metals, media, and consumer services, while reducing positions in communication, home appliances, and retail sectors [7][45] - The newly established equity fund scale has increased, with active funds seeing a rise while passive funds have decreased. ETFs related to the CSI A500 index have been primarily net purchased, while sectors like military, electronics, and agriculture have seen net selling [7][52]

Market Performance - The Sci-Tech 50 Index increased by 2.85% over the last five trading days, while the ChiNext Index rose by 3.90%. The large-cap value index fell by 0.02%, and the large-cap growth index increased by 2.70%. The Shanghai 50 Index gained 1.37%, and the small-cap index represented by the CSI 2000 rose by 3.55%. The sectors of non-ferrous metals and national defense performed well, while beauty care and social services lagged behind [1]. Valuation Levels - As of December 26, 2025, the static PE ratio of the CSI All Share Index is at the 82nd percentile. The Shanghai 50 and CSI 300 both stand at 74%, while the ChiNext Index is close to 59%. The CSI 500 and CSI 1000 are at 62% and 64%, respectively. The valuation of the ChiNext Index is relatively at the historical median level [1]. Risk Premium - The risk premium, calculated as the inverse of the static PE of the CSI All Share Index minus the yield of the 10-year government bond, is at 2.69% as of December 26, 2025. The two standard deviation boundary is at 4.70% [1]. Fund Flows - In the last five trading days, ETF inflows amounted to 41.6 billion yuan, and the margin trading balance increased by approximately 45.7 billion yuan. The average daily trading volume across the two markets was 1.9454 trillion yuan [2]. Thematic Investment - The latest thematic investment configuration includes sectors such as chemicals, non-bank financials, communications, and satellite industries. Specific indices mentioned are the CSI Sub-Industry Chemical Index, CSI 300 Non-Bank Financial Index, CSI All Share Communication Equipment Index, and the National Satellite Communication Industry Index [2][3]. AI and Machine Learning Application - The application of convolutional neural networks (CNN) for modeling price and volume data has been explored, focusing on standardizing chart data to predict future prices and mapping learned features to industry themes [10].

证券研究报告 | 金融工程 gszqdatemark 2025 12 26 年 月 日 量化分析报告 攻守兼备，穿越周期——华夏中证 A500ETF 基金投资价值分析 中证 A500 是适合作为风险分散的配置资产 1）中证 A500 指数未来一年预期收益为 12.9%。我们对各分项进行预 测并加总得到：未来一年中证 A500 预期收益为 12.9%，其中盈利预计有 较强支撑，贡献 8.7%的收益，估值项预测仍有 3%的上涨空间。 中证 500ESG 基准指数和中证 500 指数基日以来累计收益分别为 3.96% 和 2.42%，ESG 负面剔除后的指数超额收益显著，且年化波动率更低。 3）指数成分股：大市值、高流动性。中证 A500 指数前十大成分股龙头集 中度高，新经济与传统经济均衡配置，充分体现 A500 指数"大盘蓝筹 + 行业龙头"的编制特征。从中证 A500 指数成分股中信一级行业分布来看， 主要集中在电子、电力设备及新能源、银行、有色金属、医药等行业。中 证 A500 指数成分股在行业龙头、陆股通重仓、核心资产、基金重仓、成 交主力等概念的暴露较高，具备较好的市场流动性和较高的机构认可度。 华夏中 ...

金融工程 | 证券研究报告 — 周报 2025 年 12 月 26 日 中银量化多策略行业轮动 周报 – 20251225 当前（2025 年 12 月 25 日）中银多策略行业配置系统仓位：非银行金融 （11.8%）、银行（9.3%）、交通运输（9.1%）、食品饮料（7.6%）、基 础化工（7.3%）、钢铁（6.9%）、通信（6.0%）、石油石化（4.7%）、 家电（4.3%）、机械（3.7%）、煤炭（3.7%）、综合金融（3.6%）、有 色金属（3.5%）、建材（3.5%）、综合（3.4%）、农林牧渔（3.4%）、 电 力 设 备 及 新 能 源 （ 3.4% ） 、 电 子 （ 2.5% ） 、 电 力 及 公 用 事 业 （1.2%）、建筑（1.2%）。 相关研究报告 《中银证券量化行业轮动系列（七）：如何把 握市场"未证伪情绪"构建行业动量策略》 20220917 《中银证券量化行业轮动系列（八）："估值泡 沫保护"的高景气行业轮动策略》20221018 《中银证券宏观基本面行业轮动新框架：对传 统自上而下资产配置困境的破局》20230518 《中银证券量化行业轮动系列（九）：长期反 转-中期动量- ...

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】669号 股指反弹持续，贵金属小幅回调 ——中信期货晨报20251226 中信期货研究所 仲鼎 从业资格号F03107932 投资咨询号Z0021450 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 | | | | 金融市场涨跌幅 | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 板块 | 品种 | 现金 | | | 日度涨跌幅 周度涨跌幅 月度涨跌幅 李度涨跌幅 今年涨跌幅 | | | | 股指 | 沪深300期货 | 4610.6 | 0.344 | 1.85% | 3.09% | -0.16% | 11729X | | | 上证50期货 | 3034 | 0 23% | 0.92% | 2.53% | 1.51% | 13.29% | | | 中证500期货 | 7320.6 | 1 00 00 % | 3.76% | 7.64% | 0.41% | 28 ...

过去一周，市场风格出现显著切换。偏防守的价值因子以及代表交易博弈的量价类因子（波动率、技术）表现强势。 而此前表现优异的成长因子和一致预期因子则有所回撤。这反映出在震荡环境下，资金暂时脱离了业绩驱逻辑，转而 寻求低估值防御。展望未来一周，考虑到年末资金避险情绪，我们预期价值因子的防御属性仍将受捧，同时量价类因 子有望延续活跃态势，而成长风格短期或需等待拥挤度消化后的企稳。 以上结果通过历史数据统计、建模和测算完成，在政策、市场环境发生变化时模型存在失效的风险。 过去一周，国内主要市场指数平稳，其中上证 50、沪深 300、中证 500 和中证 1000 涨跌幅分别为 0.61%、-0.15%、 0.01%和-0.56%。 微盘股指标监控：综合来看，当前轮动模型由于微盘股滚动 20 天斜率收负，茅指数为正斜率，当前轮动模型发出切 换至茅指数信号，中期配置茅指数的预期能有更高相对收益。从中期微盘股择时角度来看，目前风控信号还没触发， 但能看到波动率拥挤率正在快速上行，风险有明显聚集。对于持有微盘板块投资者建议做好风险控制，以及密切跟踪 相对净值、动量及中期风险指标的动态。 过去一周，政策端进入了高频落地的执行期， ...