Core Viewpoint - The Hong Kong stock market is experiencing significant net inflows, with the Hong Kong Stock Connect seeing over HKD 1 trillion in net inflows year-to-date, surpassing the total for the entire year of 2024, indicating a potential record high for the year [1][4]. Group 1: Market Performance - The average daily trading volume of the Hong Kong Stock Connect has reached HKD 60.8 billion, accounting for 24.5% of the overall market [4]. - In August 2025, the Hong Kong stock market recorded a net inflow of HKD 112.2 billion, marking the ninth highest monthly inflow on record [6]. - The Southbound trading of ETFs has seen an average daily trading volume of HKD 3.8 billion in the first half of 2025, setting a new semi-annual record [6]. Group 2: Sector Analysis - The financial sector remains the largest holding in the Hang Seng Stock Connect, accounting for 32%, followed by information technology at 20% and consumer discretionary at 16% [6]. - The healthcare sector has seen the largest increase in weight from 3% to 7% year-to-date, while consumer discretionary and information technology sectors have increased by 3 and 2 percentage points, respectively [6]. Group 3: Earnings and Growth Outlook - The Hong Kong stock market has stabilized, with positive earnings growth in the first half of 2025, showing revenue and profit growth rates of 1.9% and 4.6%, respectively [8]. - The sectors of technology, healthcare, and materials are expected to maintain high growth, while some sectors like energy and utilities are still under pressure [8]. - The second half of 2025 is anticipated to see a turning point in earnings growth, with expectations for a rebound in previously underperforming sectors [8]. Group 4: Investment Trends - AI remains a key theme in the Hong Kong stock market, with internet stocks expected to benefit significantly [9]. - The demand for AI cloud services is driving revenue growth, with private cloud service providers outpacing state-owned telecom companies for the first time in four years [10].

第二批科创债 ETF 集中成立，A500 增强工具持续扩容 —— 量化市场追踪周报（2025W38） [Table_ReportTime] 2025 年 9 月 21 日 请阅读最后一页免责声明及信息披露 http://www.cindasc.com 1 [Table_ReportType] 金工点评报告 [Table_Author] 于明明 金融工程与金融产品 首席分析师 执业编号：S1500521070001 联系电话：+86 18616021459 邮 箱：yumingming@cindasc.com 吴彦锦 金融工程与金融产品 分析师 执业编号：S1500523090002 联系电话：+86 18616819227 邮 箱：wuyanjin@cindasc.com 周君睿 金融工程与金融产品 分析师 执业编号：S1500523110005 联系电话：+86 19821223545 邮 箱：zhoujunrui@cindasc.com [Table_Title] 量化市场追踪周报(2025W38)：第二批科创债 ETF 集中成立，A500 增强工具持续扩容 证券研究报告 金工研究 [Table_Repo ...

国泰海通证券 | 研究所 刘欣琦 金融组长、非银行金融首席分析师 行业核心洞察 重视配置的力量, 非银估值修复年 价值主张 我们希望能找到的好公司不仅具备确定性增 长的盈利预期,而且希望这种盈利预期是建 立在其客户好的价值体验基础上的,这样的 盈利才更具有持续性。 = (1) 2 : 11 2 21 1 年度代表作 1 . 点击下方图片 查看电话会回放详细议程 推 荐 阅 读 上线了！国泰海通2025研究框架培训视频版｜洞察价值，共创未来 报告来源 观点来自国泰海通证券已发布的研究报告。 报告名称：重视配置的力量，看好低估值非银股机会；报 告日期：20250727；报告作者：刘欣琦S0880515050001；风险提示：权益市场大幅波动;政策落地 不及预期。 重要提醒 本订阅号所载内容仅面向国泰海通证券研究服务签约客户。因本资料暂时无法设置访问限制，根据《证 券期货投资者适当性管理办法》的要求，若您并非国泰海通证券研究服务签约客户，为保证服务质量、 控制投资风险，还请取消关注，请勿订阅、接收或使用本订阅号中的任何信息。我们对由此给您造成的 不便表示诚挚歉意，非常感谢您的理解与配合！如有任何疑问，敬请按照文末联 ...

Core Viewpoint - The stock of Shankao Holdings experienced significant volatility, with a drop of over 70% following a period of substantial gains, highlighting concerns over concentrated shareholding and market reactions to company announcements [1][2][3]. Group 1: Stock Performance - Shankao Holdings' stock price surged approximately 150% over the past four months before the recent decline [1]. - From April 16, 2025, to September 1, 2025, the stock price increased by 193.6%, rising from HKD 5.82 to HKD 17.09 [4]. - As of September 17, 2025, the stock price was HKD 14.80, reflecting a 154.3% increase since April 16, 2025 [4]. Group 2: Shareholding Structure - The Hong Kong Securities and Futures Commission reported that 20 shareholders collectively hold about 1.445 billion shares, representing 24% of the issued share capital [3]. - Including two major shareholders who own 68.46%, these shareholders control a total of 92.46% of the company's shares [3]. - Only 4.54 million shares, or 7.54% of the issued share capital, are held by other shareholders, indicating a highly concentrated ownership structure [3]. Group 3: Company Actions and Market Reactions - On September 16, 2025, Shankao Holdings' stock fell by 24.22% after the company announced it was unaware of the reasons behind the stock price and trading volume fluctuations [5]. - Following the announcement of a share buyback plan, the stock price rebounded by 17.37% on September 17, 2025 [6]. - The company plans to repurchase shares at a price not exceeding HKD 17 per share, with a total buyback amount not exceeding USD 100 million [5]. Group 4: Company Overview - Shankao Holdings serves as an important overseas investment and emerging industry platform for Shandong High-Speed Group, with core business activities in industrial investment and licensed financial services [6]. - The company holds significant stakes in Shankao New Energy and Century Internet, owning 42% of the latter [6]. - Shankao Holdings is also a constituent of the Hong Kong Stock Connect and has a weight of 2.27% in the non-bank financial theme index [7].

Core Insights - The report highlights the recent regulatory updates in the non-bank financial sector, specifically the classification evaluation of futures companies, which aims to enhance regulatory effectiveness and promote differentiated development within the industry [5][7] - The report also emphasizes the growth in the scale of equity product distribution, with significant increases in the total assets under management for various fund categories, indicating a robust market environment for fund distribution [7][8] Industry Overview - The futures company classification evaluation regulations were released by the China Securities Regulatory Commission, focusing on improving the scoring system and enhancing risk management within the industry [7] - The report notes that the total scale of equity, non-monetary, and stock index funds reached 51.4 trillion yuan, 102 trillion yuan, and 19.5 trillion yuan respectively, with growth rates of 5.89%, 6.95%, and 14.57% compared to the end of 2024 [7] - The report indicates that major indices experienced varying degrees of increase, with the Shanghai Composite Index rising by 1.52% and the ChiNext Index increasing by 2.10% [7] Company Analysis - The specific company under review, Shichang Co., specializes in the research, production, and sales of automotive fuel systems, particularly plastic fuel tank assemblies [8] - The company has established itself as a "little giant" in the automotive fuel system sector, recognized for its technological advancements and strong customer relationships with major automotive manufacturers [8] - The report projects that Shichang Co. will achieve revenues of 282 million yuan, 406 million yuan, and 515 million yuan for the years 2022 to 2024, with growth rates of -3.50%, 44.24%, and 26.79% respectively [8] - The company is positioned to benefit from the growing demand for plastic fuel tanks, driven by the increasing production and sales of passenger vehicles in China, which are expected to reach 32.9 million units by 2025 [8]

Group 1: Industry Index Pool Construction - The report outlines the construction of an industry index pool that combines investability and representativeness, focusing on passive products tracking strong industry attributes [10][12]. - Since 2020, the scale of industry ETFs has experienced explosive growth, increasing from 85.8 billion yuan at the end of 2019 to over 310 billion yuan by the end of 2020, and approaching 900 billion yuan by August 2025 [10]. - The report categorizes various industry ETFs, highlighting that TMT, financial real estate, and pharmaceutical sectors have surpassed 100 billion yuan in ETF scale [10]. Group 2: Economic Prosperity Investment Practices - The report discusses the calculation of expected ROE growth for industries based on analysts' profit forecasts, comparing two fiscal years (FY1 and FY2) [20][21]. - It emphasizes that the FY2 grouping shows stronger monotonicity in performance compared to FY1, indicating better returns for the former [23][24]. - The backtesting period for the economic prosperity factor spans from January 1, 2018, to September 12, 2025, with a focus on marginal changes in industry index prosperity [27]. Group 3: Economic Trend Resonance Strategy - The economic trend resonance strategy combines fundamental marginal improvements with capital consensus, utilizing trend factors to quantify market sentiment [36][38]. - The constructed economic trend resonance portfolio has achieved an annualized return of 12.33% since 2018, outperforming the CSI 800 index by 11.13% [40][42]. - The portfolio's monthly excess return rate stands at 64%, with a profit-loss ratio of 1.30 [45]. Group 4: Economic Trend and Crowding Avoidance Strategy - The strategy integrates economic trend analysis with crowding avoidance to mitigate risks associated with overheated trading [49]. - The three-dimensional strategy has yielded an annualized return of 12.80% since 2018, exceeding the CSI 800 index by 11.60% [52][54]. - The portfolio's monthly excess return rate is 62%, with a profit-loss ratio of 1.47 [57]. Group 5: Current Industry Characteristics - As of August 2025, the report identifies industries that align with the economic trend resonance and crowding avoidance strategy, including the transportation index, home appliances, livestock, media, and oil and gas sectors [60]. - The expected growth rates for these sectors range from 1.1% to 9.6%, with varying levels of crowding and valuation metrics [60].

Domestic Market Overview - The domestic market experienced a slight decline after a brief rise, with the Shanghai Composite Index closing at 3870.6 points, down 0.12%, and the Shenzhen Component Index at 12924.13 points, down 0.43% [1][9] - Among 30 first-level industries, 9 saw an increase, with non-ferrous metals, real estate, and steel leading the gains, while communication, banking, and non-bank financial sectors faced significant declines [1][9] - The total trading volume of the A-share market reached 25,483 billion, showing an increase compared to the previous day [1][9] Overseas Market Overview - The three major U.S. stock indices closed mixed, with the Dow Jones down 0.59% and the Nasdaq up 0.44%, reaching a new historical high [2] - Tesla's stock surged over 7%, while other companies like Merck and Sherwin-Williams fell more than 2% [2] Industry News - The Ministry of Commerce announced an anti-dumping investigation into imported simulation chips from the U.S., citing evidence of significant price drops and a dumping margin exceeding 300% [10][14] - The automotive industry is set to implement a growth stabilization plan aiming for annual vehicle sales of approximately 32.3 million units in 2025, with 15.5 million being new energy vehicles [17] - A national standard draft for pre-prepared dishes has passed expert review and will soon seek public opinion, marking a significant regulatory step for the industry [19]

国泰海通证券 研究所 国泰海通非银研究系列电话会议 8月11-20日、9月1-10日 每晚19:30 直 == 非银行金融分析师 非银行金融分析师 王思明 n Andress of the start of the start of the start of the see of the see the see the series of the series of the series of the series and the see the see the see the series a 金融组长 目席分析 tin 刘秋琦 非银会融团队 会议信息系 更多国泰海通研究和服务 亦可联系对口销售获取 重要提醒 本订阅号所载内容仅面向国泰海通证券研究服务签约客户。因本资料暂时无法设置访问限制，根据《证 券期货投资者适当性管理办法》的要求，若您并非国泰海通证券研究服务签约客户，为保证服务质量、 控制投资风险，还请取消关注，请勿订阅、接收或使用本订阅号中的任何信息。我们对由此给您造成的 不便表示诚挚歉意，非常感谢您的理解与配合！如有任何疑问，敬请按照文末联系方式与我们联系。 法律声明 本公众订阅号(微信号 GTH ...

金融工程| 证券研究报告 —周报 2025 年 9 月 15 日 中银量化大类资产跟踪 中小盘反弹力度领先，微盘拥挤度降至低位 股票市场概览 本周 A 股上涨，港股上涨，美股上涨，其他海外权益市场普遍上涨。 A 股风格与拥挤度 成长 vs 红利：成长风格拥挤度及超额净值持续处于历史低位；红利风 格拥挤度近期处于历史较低位置。 小盘 vs 大盘：小盘风格超额净值及拥挤度均处于历史低位，大盘风格 拥挤度近期上升至历史较高位置。 微盘股 vs 基金重仓：微盘股拥挤度下降至历史低位；基金重仓超额累 计净值持续处于历史低位，拥挤度近期上行至历史高位。 A 股行情及成交热度 本周领涨的行业为电子、非银行金融、农林牧渔；领跌的行业为银行、综 合金融、医药。本周成交热度最高的行业为国防军工、纺织服装、纺织服 装；成交热度最低的行业为煤炭、综合金融、石油石化。 A 股估值与股债性价比 A 股资金面 机构调研活跃度 当前机构调研活跃度历史分位居前的行业为有色金属、房地产、石油石 化，居后的行业为银行、机械、医药。 利率市场 本周中国国债利率上涨，美国国债利率下跌，中美利差处于历史高位。 汇率市场 近一周在岸人民币较美元升值，离岸 ...

Core Insights - The market showed active trading in 25H1, with daily average stock fund transaction volume increasing by 64% year-on-year, and income from financial products sold by listed brokerages rising by 32% [1] - The top 100 distribution institutions held a combined "stock + mixed" fund balance of 5.14 trillion yuan, up 5.9% quarter-on-quarter; stock index funds totaled 1.95 trillion yuan, up 14.6%; and non-monetary funds reached 10.20 trillion yuan, up 6.9% [1] Distribution Institutions - The market share of brokerages in non-monetary and stock-mixed fund holdings increased, while the market share of stock index funds decreased, primarily taken by banks; brokerages still hold over 50% market share [2] - For non-monetary funds, the market shares of banks, third parties, and brokerages are 43.1%, 34.9%, and 20.4% respectively, with changes of -1.11 percentage points, +0.62 percentage points, and +0.46 percentage points quarter-on-quarter [2] - In the "stock + mixed" category, the market shares are 41.8% for banks, 28.6% for third parties, and 27.4% for brokerages, with slight changes quarter-on-quarter [2] Brokerages - Brokerages saw an increase in market share for stock-mixed and non-monetary fund holdings, while stock index fund market share slightly declined but still remains significant [3] - The "stock + mixed" fund and stock index fund holdings increased by 6.5% and 9.9% quarter-on-quarter, respectively, while non-monetary fund holdings rose by 9.4% [3] - Leading brokerages include CITIC Securities and Huatai Securities, both maintaining holdings above 120 billion yuan, with slight changes in market share [3] Banks - Banks experienced a decline in market share for non-monetary and stock-mixed funds, but stock index fund market share increased from a smaller base [4] - The "stock + mixed" fund holdings for banks increased by 5.5% quarter-on-quarter, while stock index funds surged by 38.7% [4] - China Merchants Bank leads with a "stock + mixed" fund holding of 492 billion yuan, showing a significant quarter-on-quarter increase [4] Investment Recommendations - The proposed fee reform for public funds is favorable for equity funds and ETFs, with brokerages expected to benefit from new evaluation criteria that favor those with significant growth in equity fund holdings [5] - Brokerages are positioned to enhance their market share in fund distribution and advisory services due to these favorable conditions [5]