智通财经APP获悉，开源证券发布研报称，近期白酒板块在政策、估值、基本面共振下强势上涨，行业 处于周期底部，需求复苏与政策优化支撑可持续性预期。其底部修复逻辑同样适用于啤酒、调味品等处 于双底部的食品饮料子行业。2026年大众品投资可聚焦零食、原奶/乳制品及餐饮供应链三大方向。需 关注经济、政策及需求复苏不及预期等风险。 周期底部复苏逻辑明确，看好白酒板块可持续性上涨 该行认为本轮白酒板块上涨具备可持续性，当前行业已处于周期底部区域，基本面向上修复逻辑清晰。 首先，白酒需求端呈现缓慢复苏态势，高端白酒批价回落至合理区间后，有效激发了真实消费需求，叠 加春节旺季临近，家庭聚会、礼品馈赠等场景需求集中释放，价格下行带来的消费提振效应逐步显现； 其次，禁酒令进行纠偏后，政策负面影响边际递减，从近期消费场景恢复情况来看，政策对白酒核心消 费需求的扰动持续减弱，市场预期趋于稳定；再次，随着宏观经济逐步企稳、促消费政策持续出台，整 体消费市场活力有望修复，白酒行业有望实现企稳回升。 伴随后续需求回暖和政策加码，多个子行业有望复制底部修复行情 板块底部修复逻辑并非白酒板块独有，可延伸至整个食品饮料行业。当前啤酒、调味品、速 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the news is that Southbound funds have increased their holdings in China National Nuclear Corporation (01735.HK) by 453,000 shares on February 5, indicating a positive sentiment towards the company [1] - Over the past five trading days, there were three days of net reductions in Southbound fund holdings, totaling a net decrease of 257,000 shares [1] - In the last 20 trading days, Southbound funds increased their holdings on 16 days, with a cumulative net increase of 19.798 million shares [1] - Currently, Southbound funds hold 144 million shares of China National Nuclear Corporation, accounting for 3.41% of the company's total issued ordinary shares [1] Group 2 - China National Nuclear Corporation Holdings Group Limited primarily engages in the renewable energy and engineering, procurement, and construction business [2] - The company operates through five business segments, including renewable energy and engineering, green building and related services, health and medical services, food supply chain, and smart energy management services [2] - The renewable energy and engineering segment focuses on the production and sales of photovoltaic products, while the green building segment provides construction and property management services [2]

证券研究报告 | 2026年02月04日 | 晨会纪要 | | --- | | 数据日期:2026-02-03 | 上证综指 | 深证成指沪深 | 300 指数 | 中小板综指 | 创业板综指 | 科创 50 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 收盘指数（点） | 4067.73 | 14127.10 | 4660.10 | 15290.00 | 4148.91 | 1471.06 | | 涨跌幅度（%） | 1.29 | 2.19 | 1.17 | 2.30 | 2.66 | 1.39 | | 成交金额（亿元） | 11107.20 | 14335.11 | 6666.26 | 4888.38 | 6773.19 | 988.26 | $$\overline{{{\mathbb{M}}}}\cong\pm\overline{{{\mathbb{M}}}}$$ (4) [ (4) 36 $\mu$H$\mu$H$\mu$H$\mu$] 宏观与策略 宏观深度:宏观经济深度报告-有形之手（1）：财政 ABC 之"四本账" 固定收益深度:固收+系列报告之十 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform the Market" rating for the food and beverage sector [4][5][10]. Core Views - The food and beverage sector is expected to perform well in 2026, with a focus on four main investment themes: cost advantages, efficiency improvements, innovation-driven growth, and opportunities for recovery in distressed segments [3][10][14]. - The report highlights the increasing signals of a bottoming out in the liquor market, particularly for baijiu, and emphasizes the importance of sales performance during the Spring Festival [2][10]. - The report suggests a diversified approach to investment, recommending leading companies in various sub-sectors, including dairy, beverages, snacks, and restaurant supply chains [2][3][10]. Summary by Relevant Sections Liquor - Baijiu prices are stable with an upward trend, and the report emphasizes monitoring sales during the Spring Festival. Key recommendations include Kweichow Moutai, Shanxi Fenjiu, and Luzhou Laojiao, with a focus on their market positioning and growth potential [2][10][11]. - The report anticipates a continued decline in production for smaller liquor companies, while larger firms are expected to manage inventory effectively [10][11]. Beer - The beer industry is experiencing healthy inventory levels, with expectations for demand recovery. Recommendations include Yanjing Beer and China Resources Beer, focusing on their growth potential and market strategies [11][12]. Snacks - The report identifies strong growth potential in the konjac snack segment, recommending leading companies like Weidong and Yanjinpuzi for their innovative product offerings and competitive advantages [12][17]. Dairy - The dairy sector is advised to focus on leading companies like Yili, with expectations for steady demand recovery and improved profitability in 2026. The report notes the importance of managing inventory and product innovation [14][15]. Beverages - The beverage sector is characterized by a focus on inventory reduction during the off-season, with key recommendations for companies like Nongfu Spring and Dongpeng Beverage, which are expected to benefit from market expansion and product innovation [15][16].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform the Market" rating for the food and beverage sector [4][5]. Core Views - The food and beverage sector is expected to perform well in 2026, with a focus on four main investment themes: cost advantages, efficiency improvements, innovation-driven growth, and opportunities for recovery in distressed segments [3][10]. - The report highlights the increasing bottom signals in the liquor market, particularly for baijiu, and emphasizes the importance of sales performance during the Spring Festival [2][10]. Summary by Relevant Sections Liquor - Baijiu prices, particularly for Moutai, are stable with a slight increase, and attention is drawn to the sales rhythm during the Spring Festival. The report recommends Moutai, Shanxi Fenjiu, and Luzhou Laojiao as top picks, while also suggesting to monitor other brands like Gujing Gongjiu and Wuliangye [2][10]. - The report anticipates a continued trend of small liquor companies exiting the market, with a projected production decline of 12.1% for baijiu in 2025 [10]. Beer - The beer industry is experiencing healthy inventory levels, with expectations for demand recovery. The report recommends Yanjing Beer and China Resources Beer as key players to watch [11][10]. Snacks - The report emphasizes the importance of strong alpha stocks in the snack sector, particularly focusing on konjac snacks, with companies like Weilong and Yanjinpuzi showing strong product innovation and competitive advantages [12][10]. Food Supply Chain - The food supply chain is entering a peak season for stocking and sales, with a focus on pre-prepared dishes. The report recommends leading companies like Yihai International and Haitian Flavoring, as well as companies that are expanding their channels like Qianwei Yangchun [13][14]. Dairy Products - The report suggests a cautious outlook for dairy companies due to competitive pressures, but highlights the potential for recovery in 2026, particularly for leading companies like Yili [14][10]. Beverages - The beverage sector is currently in a de-stocking phase, with stable preparations for the Spring Festival. The report continues to recommend companies like Nongfu Spring and Dongpeng Beverage, which are accelerating their national expansion [15][10].

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" (maintained) [1] Core Viewpoints - The demand for Moutai during the Spring Festival is more resilient than expected, indicating a clear improvement trend for mass-market products [4] - The food and beverage index increased by 1.6% from January 26 to January 30, outperforming the CSI 300 by approximately 1.5 percentage points [4][15] - The white wine market is gaining attention due to expectations of improvement in related industries, with Moutai's wholesale prices showing unexpected resilience [4][43] Market Performance - The food and beverage sector ranked 5th among primary sub-industries, with white wine (+3.9%), meat products (+0.5%), and other foods (0.0%) leading the performance [4][15] - Notable individual stock performances include Huangtai Liquor, Liziyuan, and CITIC Niya showing significant gains, while Haoxiangni, *ST Chuntian, and Anji Food experienced declines [4][15][20] Upstream Data - Some upstream raw material prices have decreased, with the price of fresh milk at 3.04 yuan/kg, down 2.6% year-on-year [21] - The price of pork is 18.6 yuan/kg, down 19.9% year-on-year, while the price of white strip chicken is 17.0 yuan/kg, down 1.2% year-on-year [23][29] Recommendations - Recommended stocks include Guizhou Moutai, Shanxi Fenjiu, Ximai Food, Weilong Delicious, and Ganyuan Food, with each showing potential for growth in 2026 [6]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" (maintained) [1] Core Viewpoints - The demand for Moutai during the Spring Festival is more resilient than expected, indicating a clear improvement trend for mass-market products [4] - The food and beverage index increased by 1.6% from January 26 to January 30, outperforming the CSI 300 by approximately 1.5 percentage points [4][15] - The white wine market is gaining attention, with Moutai's wholesale price rebounding to over 1600 yuan, signaling a potential bottom for the white wine sector [4][13] Market Performance - The food and beverage sector ranked 5th among primary sub-industries, with white wine (+3.9%) and meat products (+0.5%) leading the performance [15][16] - Key stocks such as Huangtai Liquor, Liziyuan, and CITIC Niya showed significant gains, while stocks like Haoxiangni and *ST Chuntian faced declines [4][15] Upstream Data - Some upstream raw material prices are declining, with the price of fresh milk at 3.04 yuan/kg, down 2.6% year-on-year [21] - The price of pork is 18.6 yuan/kg, down 19.9% year-on-year, indicating a significant drop in meat prices [23][29] Recommendations - Recommended stocks include Guizhou Moutai, Shanxi Fenjiu, Ximai Food, Weilong Delicious, and Ganyuan Food, with a focus on their growth potential and market strategies [6][50]

Core Viewpoint - The company, Guoquan (锅圈), is expected to achieve significant revenue and profit growth in 2025, with projected revenues of 7.75 billion to 7.85 billion yuan and net profits of 443 million to 463 million yuan, marking a year-on-year increase of 19.8% to 21.3% in revenue and 83.7% to 92% in profit [1] Group 1: Financial Performance - In 2022, the company reached a revenue peak of 7.173 billion yuan but experienced a 15% decline in 2023 to 6.094 billion yuan due to decreased demand for home hot pot following the end of public health events [1] - The company anticipates a slight recovery in 2024 with revenues increasing to 6.47 billion yuan, although still below the 2022 peak [1] - The expansion of store openings is a key factor driving the anticipated performance rebound in 2025, with a target of opening 10,000 new stores by the end of that year [1][3] Group 2: Store Expansion and Operations - As of 2025, the total number of stores is expected to reach 11,566, an increase of 1,416 stores from the beginning of the year, with a notable acceleration in store openings in the fourth quarter [3] - The company operates primarily through a franchise model, with 99.9% of its stores being franchisee-operated, which poses challenges in terms of store management and food safety [3][4] - Recent food safety incidents have raised concerns, including complaints about food quality and hygiene, which could impact the brand's reputation [4][6] Group 3: Strategic Initiatives - The company is exploring new business models, including a strategic investment in a smart kitchen service provider to launch "Guoquan Stir-fry," aiming to enter the smart Chinese cuisine market [6][8] - Plans for store renovations include transitioning from smaller stores of 70 square meters to larger ones of 150 square meters, with a long-term goal of establishing community central kitchens of 400 square meters [8] - The company aims to renovate 3,000 existing stores and open an additional 3,000 large stores in 2026, representing approximately 26% of the current store count [8]

Group 1 - The report from Zhongtai Securities analyzes the restaurant industry chain, highlighting that the upstream raw material sector is fragmented with weak bargaining power, resulting in low added value and efficiency [1] - The downstream restaurant sector is experiencing high rates of openings and closures, leading to rapid industry reshuffling, while high labor costs and talent turnover are constraining chain expansion [1] - Midstream catering companies are focusing on independent research and development to provide one-stop solutions for downstream clients, enhancing their profit margins and promoting the development of restaurant brands, with trends in hot pot balls, frozen baking, and cold chain logistics showing concentration and demand expansion [1] Group 2 - Current consumer attitudes in China are shifting from consumption upgrades to a focus on cost-effectiveness, with a growing preference for local brands and a shift towards health-conscious eating [2] - The future development paths for China's restaurant industry may include high-quality affordable options, automation and smart technology in kitchens to mitigate talent shortages, and a focus on niche markets to cater to diverse consumer needs [2] - These trends are expected to benefit catering supply chain companies that provide kitchen equipment and standardized semi-finished products [2]

Group 1: Hotel Industry Insights - The hotel industry is entering a new phase characterized by non-linear growth among leading players, driven by expectations of cyclical turning points and capital consolidation, with a long-term focus on scale and efficiency [17][18] - The valuation of hotels follows a three-dimensional framework: macro supply-demand mismatches determine valuation turning points, structural upgrades amplify volatility, and individual company cycles provide alpha opportunities [17] - The current cycle's bottom is marked by increased differentiation within the industry, with leading hotels expected to see RevPAR (Revenue per Available Room) recover as supply stabilizes and demand rebounds, particularly in leisure travel [17][18] Group 2: Social Services Sector - The social services sector has seen a 1.52% increase during the reporting period, outperforming the broader market by 2.71 percentage points, with notable stocks including Tongdao Liepin and Keri International [19][20] - The sector is actively responding to the silver economy, with policies promoting the development of elderly care services and companies like New Oriental launching local interest courses for retirees [21] - The Spring Festival is expected to drive significant travel demand, with predictions of approximately 95 million air passengers during the holiday period, indicating a strong recovery in travel-related services [21] Group 3: Food and Beverage Sector - The food and beverage sector has experienced a decline of 1.37%, with A-share food and beverage indices falling by 1.57%, while H-share indices showed a slight increase [26] - The sector is characterized by differentiated performance, with alcoholic beverages, particularly baijiu, showing stable prices and a focus on demand recovery during the Spring Festival [27] - Recommendations include leading companies in various categories, such as Moutai for baijiu, Yili for dairy, and Nongfu Spring for beverages, highlighting their strong growth potential and market positioning [27][28] Group 4: Pharmaceutical Industry - The pharmaceutical industry is witnessing a robust outflow of innovative drugs and a recovery in the CXO sector, driven by favorable clinical data and supportive policies [33][34] - The domestic supply-demand landscape remains stable, with a focus on innovative drug forms and technologies such as AI in healthcare and brain-machine interfaces, which are expected to see significant growth [35] - Investment recommendations include companies with strong competitive advantages in innovation and cost control, such as Mindray Medical and WuXi AppTec [35][36]