特朗普要鲸吞蚕食扩大美国版图之际，却忽略了国内最重要的事情，那就是金融秩序的稳定。现在，越来越多的因素浮出水面，似乎在预示着2026年某些既 定的金融规则将被改写。 虽然美联储内部有着理事会成员与12家地区联储的制约，但两者形成收割世界的利器的客观条件已经具备。因此在美联储易主之前，欧洲率先打出一整套组 合拳。 丹麦养老基金此前宣布抛售1亿美元的美债，并表示美国"不再是良好信用对象"，而波兰央行增持150吨黄金。整个欧元区持有1.99万亿美元美债，占海外美 债整体的21.3%。所幸特朗普在格陵兰岛问题上踩了急刹车，否则大规模抛售潮可能会导致更让人恐慌的场面。 伦敦金价在过去一个月内上涨10.2%，未来在技术层面会不会突破5400美元/盎司，值得观察。欧洲为实现金融上的战略自主，其实还要面临政治协商、技术 突破以及用户习惯等等，可以说任重道远，但无疑是当前多极化秩序中最具挑战美国地位的力量。 因此，我们也不难发现，无论是东亚还是欧洲，相同的迹象是黄金已经在挑战美债地位，这背后的深层次原因是什么呢？ 美联储现任主席鲍威尔的任期将在今年5月份结束，那么任命权再次来到特朗普手中。虽然他没有"违宪"直接破坏美联储的独立 ...

Market Overview - A-shares showed a rebound after hitting a low, with the ChiNext Index and Shanghai Composite Index turning positive after earlier declines [1] - The total market turnover for the half-day was 1.89 trillion yuan, a decrease of 325.2 billion yuan compared to the previous trading day, with over 4,400 stocks declining [1] Index Performance - Shanghai Composite Index: 4134.03 (+1.43, +0.03%) [2] - Shenzhen Component Index: 14262.96 (-53.67, -0.37%) [2] - ChiNext Index: 3333.91 (+14.76, +0.44%) [2] - Total A-shares: 6815.06 (-31.46, -0.46%) [2] Precious Metals Sector - The precious metals sector saw a rebound, with China Gold achieving three consecutive trading limit increases and Hunan Gold achieving two [3] - Hunan Silver quickly turned positive after previously hitting the trading limit [3] Precious Metals Prices - Global precious metals market experienced significant fluctuations, with gold prices reaching approximately $5070 per ounce and silver prices at $111 per ounce [5] - The report from Huawen Futures suggests that the investment attributes of gold and silver may strengthen due to the weakening of the US dollar's credibility [5] CPO Concept Performance - The CPO concept stocks performed actively, with Yuanjie Technology rising over 10% to reach a historical high, and Huilv Ecology hitting the trading limit [5] - A report indicated that the revenue from the data communication optical module market is expected to exceed $18 billion by 2025, driven by AI [5] Storage Chip Sector - The storage chip sector also showed strong performance, with Puran shares rising over 12% to a new high and Hengsuo shares increasing over 10% [6] - Samsung Electronics announced a price increase of over 100% for NAND flash memory supply in Q1, significantly exceeding market expectations [6] Commercial Aerospace Sector - The commercial aerospace sector rebounded, with Electric Science Chip (600877) hitting the trading limit and Western Materials also reaching the limit [7] - Zijin Mining's trading volume reached 20 billion yuan, with a 4.03% increase, bringing its market value to over 1.2 trillion yuan [7] Zijin Mining Acquisition - Zijin Mining announced an agreement to acquire Allied Gold Corporation at a cash price of 44 Canadian dollars per share, totaling approximately 5.5 billion Canadian dollars, equivalent to about 28 billion yuan [8]

Macro Dynamics - The Ministry of Commerce will optimize the implementation of the old-for-new consumption policy to promote the consumption of durable goods such as home appliances and automobiles [2] - In 2026, the Ministry will implement a special action to boost consumption, focusing on policy issuance, event organization, and improving consumption scenarios [2] Financial Institutions - Agricultural Bank of China will increase risk tolerance assessment requirements for its gold accumulation business starting January 30, 2026, to protect consumer rights [8] - The China Development Bank issued over 200 billion yuan in railway loans in 2025, marking a year-on-year increase of 27.8% [10] Company Dynamics - China Rare Earth expects a net profit of 143 million to 185 million yuan in 2025, reversing a loss of 287 million yuan from the previous year [15] - China Youth Travel Service anticipates a 47.72% decline in net profit for 2025, despite a 13.88% increase in total revenue to 11.339 billion yuan [17] - Junsheng Electronics forecasts a net profit increase of approximately 40.56% for 2025, driven by profitability improvements and business integration measures [18] - Silver Nonferrous, which has seen five consecutive trading limits, reported that silver product revenue accounted for only 4.54% of total revenue in the first half of 2025 [19]

Group 1: Monetary Policy - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) will continue to implement a moderately accommodative monetary policy in 2026, focusing on promoting stable economic growth and reasonable price recovery [1] - On January 23, 2026, the PBOC will conduct a 900 billion MLF operation with a one-year term to maintain ample liquidity in the banking system [2] Group 2: Health Insurance Development - The Ministry of Commerce and nine other departments have issued opinions to support the development of commercial health insurance products tailored for the pharmaceutical retail sector, aiming to create a payment guarantee system [3] - The initiative encourages collaboration between commercial health insurance and basic medical insurance, which is significant for reducing patient medication costs and improving the public health system [3] Group 3: Market Reactions - A-share gold concept stocks experienced a general decline, with notable drops in companies such as Xiaocheng Technology and Shandong Gold, likely influenced by recent fluctuations in international gold prices and a stronger dollar [4] Group 4: U.S. Federal Reserve Leadership - U.S. President Trump has hinted at a decision regarding the next Federal Reserve Chair, which could have significant implications for U.S. monetary policy and the global economic landscape [5]

Group 1 - Major US tech stocks experienced a pre-market decline, with Oracle falling over 4% to $184.71, a decrease of 3.34% [1] - Other tech giants such as Amazon, Google, Tesla, AMD, Meta, and Nvidia also saw declines, with Amazon and Google dropping over 3% and Tesla, AMD, Meta, and Nvidia falling over 2% [1][4] - The three major US stock index futures continued to decline, with Dow futures down 0.90%, S&P 500 futures down 0.91%, and Nasdaq futures down 1.09% [2][5] Group 2 - Gold and silver prices reached new historical highs, with spot gold rising 1.21% to $4725.686 per ounce and spot silver increasing by 0.76% to $95.074 per ounce [5] - Gold mining stocks saw a pre-market increase, with Harmony Gold rising nearly 6% and other mining companies like Coeur Mining and Pan American Silver increasing by nearly 5% [5]

Market Overview - The market opened high but closed lower, with the ChiNext index dropping nearly 2%. Chemical stocks surged, with companies like Cangzhou Dahua and Xinxiang Chemical Fiber hitting the daily limit. Precious metals and consumer stocks also performed well, while real estate stocks rebounded. In contrast, the commercial aerospace sector faced adjustments, and computing hardware stocks fell sharply, with over 3,100 stocks declining across the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets, totaling a transaction volume of 2.8 trillion yuan [1]. Chemical Industry - The chemical sector experienced significant gains, with Cangzhou Dahua and Xinxiang Chemical Fiber achieving consecutive daily limits. Recent reports indicated that from January 12 to 18, the prices of certain chemical products, such as epoxy propylene, increased by 7.9% week-on-week, and prices for organic silicon intermediates also rose [4][5]. - The domestic epoxy propylene market continued its upward trend, supported by tight supply and low overall inventory levels. The price of propylene rose by 4.88% compared to the previous week, indicating strong cost support. The demand side was driven by the "last train" effect of the cancellation of export tax rebates for polyether, leading to active market trading [5][6]. Real Estate Sector - The real estate sector saw a significant rise, with companies like Hefei Urban Construction and Cheng Investment Holdings hitting the daily limit. Analysts noted that the changes in the second-hand housing inventory post-Spring Festival would be a key focus for the market, influencing supply-demand dynamics and financial institutions' concerns regarding collateral depreciation [7][8]. Gold Market - The gold sector remained active, with companies such as Hunan Silver and Zhaojin Mining reaching the daily limit. On January 20, spot gold prices broke the $4,700 per ounce mark, setting a new historical high. Since the beginning of the year, spot gold has consistently risen, surpassing multiple price thresholds [9][10]. - Analysts expect that the upcoming U.S. Federal Reserve meeting will influence gold prices, with a high likelihood of further interest rate cuts, which could provide upward momentum for gold [10][12]. Other Notable Sectors - The consumer sector, domestic chips, and smart grid industries showed localized activity, while AI applications and aerospace sectors faced the most significant declines [12].

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Gold: Neutral [2] - Silver: Neutral [2] - Copper: Neutral [2] - Zinc: Neutral [2] - Lead: Neutral [2] - Tin: Neutral [2] - Aluminum: Bullish [2] - Alumina: Bearish [2] - Cast Aluminum Alloy: Bullish [2] - Platinum: Neutral [2] - Palladium: Neutral [2] - Nickel: Neutral [2] - Stainless Steel: Neutral [2] - Lithium Carbonate: Neutral [2] - Industrial Silicon: Neutral [2] - Polysilicon: Bullish [2] - Iron Ore: Bearish [2] - Rebar: Bearish [2] - Hot - Rolled Coil: Bearish [2] - Ferrosilicon: Neutral [2] - Silicomanganese: Neutral [2] - Coke: Neutral [2] - Coking Coal: Neutral [2] - Steam Coal: Bearish [2] - Logs: Bearish [2] - Paraxylene: Bearish [2] - PTA: Bearish [2] - MEG: Neutral [2] - Rubber: Bearish [2] - Synthetic Rubber: Neutral [2] - LLDPE: Bearish [2] - PP: Bearish [2] - Caustic Soda: Bearish [2] - Pulp: Bearish [2] - Glass: Bearish [2] - Methanol: Neutral [2] - Urea: Neutral [2] - Styrene: Neutral [2] - Soda Ash: Bearish [2] - LPG: Neutral [2] - Propylene: Neutral [2] - PVC: Bearish [2] - Fuel Oil: Neutral [2] - Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil: Neutral [2] - Container Freight Index (European Line): Neutral [2] - Staple Fiber: Neutral [2] - Bottle Chip: Neutral [2] - Offset Printing Paper: Bearish [2] - Pure Benzene: Neutral [2] - Palm Oil: Neutral [2] - Soybean Oil: Neutral [2] - Soybean Meal: Neutral [2] - Soybean: Neutral [2] - Corn: Neutral [2] - Sugar: Bearish [2] - Cotton: Bullish [2] - Eggs: Neutral [2] - Hogs: Bearish [2] - Peanuts: Neutral [2] Report's Core View The report provides a comprehensive analysis of various commodities in the futures market. It assesses the current situation of each commodity based on factors such as supply - demand, inventory, and macro - economic news, and gives corresponding investment ratings and trend intensities. For example, for gold, the rising risk - aversion sentiment is noted; for copper, the strengthening of LME spot and firm price are emphasized; for zinc, it is expected to trade in a range. Each commodity's analysis takes into account its unique fundamentals and market news [2]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Precious Metals - **Gold**: The risk - aversion sentiment has rebounded. The prices of domestic and international gold futures and spot have fluctuated. The trading volume and open interest of some contracts have decreased. ETF holdings have slightly changed, and inventories have different trends. Macro - economic news such as China's economic data and geopolitical issues may affect the price [6]. - **Silver**: The price is affected by tariff expectation fluctuations. Similar to gold, there are changes in trading volume, open interest, and inventories. The price of silver futures and spot shows certain volatility [6]. Base Metals - **Copper**: LME spot has strengthened, and the price remains firm. The trading volume of domestic and international copper futures has decreased, and the open interest has changed slightly. The inventory of LME copper has increased, while that of SHFE copper has decreased. The premium of LME copper has increased. Macro - economic news and industry - related events such as Chile's copper mine plan and power grid investment may impact the price [10]. - **Zinc**: It is expected to trade in a range. The prices of domestic and international zinc futures have declined, and the trading volume has decreased significantly. The inventory of LME zinc has decreased, and the premium has changed. China's economic data and EU - US trade issues are the influencing factors [13]. - **Lead**: The decrease in overseas inventory supports the price. The prices of domestic and international lead futures have declined, and the trading volume has decreased. The inventory of LME lead has decreased significantly [16]. - **Tin**: It is expected to trade in a range. The price of domestic tin futures has decreased, and the trading volume has decreased. The inventory of SHFE tin has decreased, and the price of spot tin has declined [20]. - **Aluminum**: It is expected to be oscillating strongly. The price of domestic aluminum futures has increased, and the trading volume has decreased. The inventory of LME aluminum has decreased. The cost of electrolytic aluminum production and the price of alumina are important factors [24]. - **Alumina**: It is expected to continue to decline. The price of domestic alumina futures has decreased, and the trading volume has decreased. The average price of domestic alumina has declined [24]. - **Cast Aluminum Alloy**: It follows the trend of electrolytic aluminum [24]. - **Platinum**: It is expected to trade in a box - shaped range. The price of platinum futures has increased, and the trading volume has decreased. ETF holdings have decreased slightly [28]. - **Palladium**: It follows the range - bound trend. The price of palladium futures has increased, and the trading volume has decreased. ETF holdings have decreased slightly [28]. - **Nickel**: The repeated statements from Indonesia have disturbed market sentiment, and the nickel price is expected to have wide - range fluctuations. The price of domestic nickel futures has increased, and the trading volume has decreased. Indonesia's policies on nickel mining and production are the key influencing factors [32]. - **Stainless Steel**: The price is supported by the contradiction in the ore end and the increase in nickel - iron prices. The price of domestic stainless - steel futures has increased, and the trading volume has decreased [32]. Energy and Chemicals - **Lithium Carbonate**: The downstream procurement has cooled down, and the price is expected to oscillate at a high level. The price of lithium carbonate futures has increased, and the trading volume has decreased. The price of battery - grade lithium carbonate has declined [37]. - **Industrial Silicon**: The upstream production cuts have disturbed the market, and the price of the futures has rebounded. The price of industrial silicon futures has increased, and the trading volume has increased. The inventory of industrial silicon has changed slightly [40]. - **Polysilicon**: Attention should be paid to the impact of market news. The price of polysilicon futures has increased, and the trading volume has decreased. The price of polysilicon has increased [40]. - **Iron Ore**: It is expected to have a weak oscillation. The price of iron ore futures has declined, and the trading volume has decreased. The price of imported iron ore has declined [43]. - **Rebar**: Affected by emergencies, the raw materials have dragged down the finished products. The price of rebar futures has declined, and the trading volume has decreased. The price of spot rebar has declined [46]. - **Hot - Rolled Coil**: Similar to rebar, affected by emergencies and raw - material drag. The price of hot - rolled coil futures has declined, and the trading volume has decreased. The price of spot hot - rolled coil has declined [46]. - **Ferrosilicon**: The demand - side expectation is tightening, and it is expected to have wide - range fluctuations. The price of ferrosilicon futures has declined, and the trading volume has decreased. The price of spot ferrosilicon has declined [50]. - **Silicomanganese**: Similar to ferrosilicon, with tightening demand - side expectation and wide - range fluctuations. The price of silicomanganese futures has declined, and the trading volume has decreased. The price of spot silicomanganese has declined [50]. - **Coke**: Affected by downstream accidents, it is expected to oscillate at a high level. The price of coke futures has increased slightly, and the trading volume has decreased. The price of spot coke has remained stable [54]. - **Coking Coal**: It is expected to oscillate at a high level. The price of coking coal futures has increased slightly, and the trading volume has decreased. The price of spot coking coal has remained stable [54]. - **Steam Coal**: The market sentiment is weak, and the price is expected to have a weak adjustment. The price of steam coal in various regions has declined [58]. - **Logs**: It is expected to have a weak oscillation. The price of log futures has declined, and the trading volume has increased. The price of spot logs has remained stable [60]. - **Paraxylene**: The cost is weak, and it is expected to be in a short - term oscillation market. The price of paraxylene futures has increased slightly, and the trading volume has decreased. The price of spot paraxylene has remained stable [64]. - **PTA**: Attention should be paid to reducing the processing fee. The price of PTA futures has increased slightly, and the trading volume has decreased. The price of spot PTA has increased [64]. - **MEG**: The downward space of valuation is limited. The price of MEG futures has declined, and the trading volume has decreased. The inventory of MEG in ports has decreased slightly [64]. - **Rubber**: It is expected to be weakly oscillating. The price of rubber futures has declined, and the trading volume has decreased. The price of spot rubber has declined [72]. - **Synthetic Rubber**: It is expected to be in a short - term weak operation. The price of synthetic rubber futures has declined, and the trading volume has decreased. The price of spot synthetic rubber has declined [76]. - **LLDPE**: The production of standard products has increased, and the spot trading has weakened. The price of LLDPE futures has declined, and the trading volume has decreased. The price of spot LLDPE has remained stable [79]. - **PP**: The monomer prices continue to diverge, and the cost support is relatively strong. The price of PP futures has declined, and the trading volume has decreased. The price of spot PP has declined [81]. - **Caustic Soda**: The downward trend still has pressure. The price of caustic soda futures has declined, and the price of spot caustic soda has declined [84]. - **Pulp**: It is expected to be weakly oscillating. The price of pulp futures has remained stable, and the trading volume has decreased. The price of spot pulp has remained stable [89]. - **Glass**: The price of the original sheet is stable. The price of glass futures has declined, and the trading volume has increased. The price of spot glass has remained stable [94]. - **Methanol**: It is expected to oscillate. The price of methanol futures has declined, and the trading volume has decreased. The price of spot methanol has declined [97]. - **Urea**: It is expected to oscillate and consolidate. The price of urea futures has declined, and the trading volume has decreased. The price of spot urea has remained stable [102]. - **Styrene**: It is expected to be in a short - term oscillation. The price of styrene futures has increased, and the trading volume has decreased. The price of spot styrene has increased [106]. - **Soda Ash**: The spot market has little change. The price of soda ash futures has declined, and the trading volume has decreased. The price of spot soda ash has remained stable [108]. - **LPG**: The downward driving force is gradually being realized. The price of LPG futures has declined, and the trading volume has decreased. The price of spot LPG has changed [113]. - **Propylene**: After the rapid increase in the spot price, the upward driving force has weakened. The price of propylene futures has declined, and the trading volume has decreased. The price of spot propylene has remained stable [113]. - **PVC**: It is expected to be weakly oscillating. The price of PVC futures has declined, and the trading volume has decreased. The price of spot PVC has remained stable [120]. - **Fuel Oil**: It is expected to have a narrow - range oscillation, and the short - term fluctuation will decrease. The price of fuel oil futures has remained stable, and the trading volume has decreased. The price of spot fuel oil has increased slightly [123]. - **Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: The night - session price has adjusted, and the price difference between high - and low - sulfur spot in the overseas market is temporarily stable. The price of low - sulfur fuel oil futures has increased, and the trading volume has decreased. The price of spot low - sulfur fuel oil has increased slightly [123]. Agricultural Products - **Container Freight Index (European Line)**: It is expected to be in a temporary oscillation market. The price of the index futures has declined, and the trading volume has decreased. The shipping capacity, geopolitical situation, and demand factors are the key influencing factors [125]. - **Staple Fiber**: It is expected to be in a short - term oscillation market, and the processing fee is at a low level. The price of staple - fiber futures has declined, and the trading volume has decreased. The price of spot staple fiber has declined [142]. - **Bottle Chip**: It is expected to be in a short - term oscillation market. The price of bottle - chip futures has increased slightly, and the trading volume has decreased. The price of spot bottle chip has declined [142]. - **Offset Printing Paper**: It is recommended to close short positions opportunistically. The price of offset - printing - paper futures has declined, and the trading volume has decreased. The price of spot offset printing paper has remained stable [145]. - **Pure Benzene**: It is expected to be mainly in a short - term oscillation. The price of pure - benzene futures has increased, and the trading volume has decreased. The price of spot pure benzene has increased [150]. - **Palm Oil**: The short - term negative factors are limited, and attention should be paid to the implementation rhythm of production cuts. The price of palm - oil futures has declined, and the trading volume has decreased. The price of spot palm oil has remained stable [153]. - **Soybean Oil**: The themes of US soybeans are insufficient, and the rebound height is limited. The price of soybean - oil futures has declined, and the trading volume has decreased. The price of spot soybean oil has increased slightly [153]. - **Soybean Meal**: Due to the closure of the US soybean market overnight, the domestic soybean - meal futures followed the rapeseed - meal futures to correct. The price of soybean - meal futures has declined, and the trading volume has decreased. The price of spot soybean meal has declined [159]. - **Soybean**: The spot price is stable, and the futures price is oscillating and adjusting. The price of soybean futures has declined, and the trading volume has decreased. The price of spot soybean has remained stable [159]. - **Corn**: The price has corrected. The price of corn futures has declined, and the trading volume has decreased. The price of spot corn has declined [162]. - **Sugar**: It is expected to be sorted at a low level. The price of sugar futures has declined, and the trading volume has decreased. The price of spot sugar has declined [165]. - **Cotton**: It is waiting for the end of the adjustment. The price of cotton futures has declined, and the trading volume has decreased. The price of spot cotton has declined [171]. - **Eggs**: The sentiment of the far - month contracts has weakened. The price of egg futures has declined, and the trading volume has changed. The price of spot eggs has increased [178]. - **Hogs**: The spot price has weakened, and the expectation of the peak season has decreased. The price of hog futures has declined, and the trading volume has increased. The price of spot hogs has declined [181]. - **Peanuts**: It is expected to oscillate. The price of peanut futures has increased, and the trading volume has increased. The price of spot peanuts has remained stable [185].

摘要北京时间周一(1月19日)欧洲时段，美元指数高位震荡，交投于99.171附近，金价目前交投于 4663.26美元/盎司，涨幅1.49%，最高触及4689.39美元/盎司，最低触及4594.31美元/盎司。 北京时间周一(1月19日)欧洲时段，美元指数高位震荡，交投于99.171附近，金价目前交投于4663.26美 元/盎司，涨幅1.49%，最高触及4689.39美元/盎司，最低触及4594.31美元/盎司。 今日黄金价格最新查询(2026年1月19日) | 名称 | 最新价 | 单位 | | --- | --- | --- | | 现货黄金 | 4663.26 | 美元/盎司 | | 黄金t+d | 1045.00 | 元/克 | | 纸黄金 | 1043.80 | 元/克 | | 沪金主力 | 1048.88 | 元/克 | 【基本面解析】 国际社会反击升温：央行行长罕见联合声援美联储独立性，北约、欧盟领导人抵达沃斯倡自由贸易;欧 洲抵制美对乌不利和平方案。美国2026财年国防预算破1.01万亿美元(冷战后最大增幅)，推高全球军费 至2.7万亿美元(+9.4%)，成"地缘经济对抗"主推手。 尽管美国以" ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article is that gold prices have risen significantly, with a 67% increase last year and a further 6% increase year-to-date, driven by central bank and insurance company purchases, as well as a shift of funds from cryptocurrencies to gold investments [1] - The report anticipates that geopolitical tensions and expectations of further interest rate cuts in the U.S. will enhance gold's appeal as a safe-haven asset, predicting an average gold price increase of 40% by 2026, with a potential rise to $5,200 per ounce next year and a long-term forecast of $5,500 per ounce [1] - The Chinese gold industry is rated "overweight," with expectations of rapid growth for all Chinese gold producers this year, highlighting Shandong Gold (01787) and Zhaojin Mining (01818) as preferred stocks with "buy" ratings and target prices of HKD 52.06 and HKD 44.78, respectively [1] Group 2 - Zijin International (02259) is given a "hold" rating, with expectations that its stock price may come under pressure after the cornerstone investor lock-up period ends in March, with a target price of HKD 152 [1] - Zijin Mining (02899) is rated "buy," with its target price raised to HKD 46.43, as it is believed to benefit from being a multi-metal producer [1]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information about the report industry investment rating in the provided content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Gold has reached a new starting point for an uptrend. It is recommended to increase the allocation of gold, focusing on its enhanced monetary attribute. Strategies such as unilateral long - entry and buying call options for gold are suggested, and volatility may rise. [3] - Due to increased risk - control pressure on silver exchanges recently, along with a slowdown in the US inventory flow and domestic speculative sentiment, which eases the spot problem, a profit - taking strategy for silver long positions is recommended. In particular, going long on the gold - silver ratio is recommended as it has good cost - effectiveness and protective value. [3] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Market Performance - **Price Changes**: This week, London gold rose by 2.61%, and London silver rose by 16.2%. The gold - silver ratio dropped from 57 in the previous week to 50. The 10 - year TIPS rose to 1.91%, the 10 - year nominal interest rate fell to 4.24% (2 - year 3.59%), and the US dollar index was 99.37. [3] - **Futures and ETF Data**: For example, the closing price of SHFE silver 2602 was 22,555 with a weekly increase of 20.25%, and the closing price of SHFE gold 2602 was 1,032.32 with a weekly increase of 2.57%. The non - commercial net long positions of Comex gold futures and options increased by 16,720, and the SPDR gold ETF holdings increased by 21.11 tons. The non - commercial net long positions of Comex silver futures and options increased by 28,532, while the SLV silver ETF holdings decreased by 235.42 tons. [4] 3.2 Price Difference Analysis - **Overseas Price Difference**: This week, the spread between London spot and COMEX gold主力 rose to - 2.064 dollars per ounce, and the spread between COMEX gold continuous and COMEX gold主力 was - 11.1 dollars per ounce. The spread between London spot and COMEX silver主力 rose to 0.189 dollars per ounce, and the spread between COMEX silver continuous and COMEX silver主力 was - 0.76 dollars per ounce. [9][15] - **Domestic Price Difference**: The gold futures - spot price difference this week was - 1.23 yuan per gram, at the lower end of the historical range. The silver futures - spot price difference was 158 yuan per gram, at the upper end of the historical range. The gold monthly spread was 7.84 yuan per gram, at the upper end of the historical range, and the silver monthly spread was 0 yuan per gram, at the lower end of the historical range. [21][24][29][33] 3.3 Delivery Cost Analysis - The total cost of the long - short cross - month positive arbitrage delivery of buying TD and selling SHFE gold was 26.73 yuan per gram; the total cost of buying SHFE gold December contract and selling June contract was 7.53 yuan per gram; the total cost of buying TD and selling SHFE silver was 561.79 yuan per kilogram; the total cost of buying SHFE silver December contract and selling June contract was - 168.44 yuan per kilogram. [35][36][37][38] 3.4 Deferred Fee Direction This week, the gold deferred fee at the Shanghai Gold Exchange was mainly paid from long to short, indicating stronger delivery power, while the silver deferred fee was mainly paid from short to long, indicating stronger receiving power. [39] 3.5 Inventory and Position - to - Inventory Ratio - COMEX gold inventory decreased by 5.47 tons this week, and the registered warrant ratio rose to 52.1%. COMEX silver inventory decreased by 329 tons to 13,348 tons, and the registered warrant ratio fell to 28.4%. Gold futures inventory increased by 2.4 tons, and silver futures inventory increased by 6.58 tons to 626 tons. [41][43][47] 3.6 CFTC Non - Commercial Positions This week, the non - commercial net long positions of COMEX CFTC gold decreased slightly, and the non - commercial net long positions of silver also decreased slightly. [49] 3.7 ETF Holdings This week, the gold SPDR ETF inventory increased by 21.11 tons, and domestic gold ETFs increased by 1.9 tons. The silver SLV ETF inventory decreased by 235 tons. [52][55] 3.8 Core Drivers of Gold - The correlation between gold and real interest rates has recovered this week, and the 10 - year TIPS continued to decline. [64]