12月7日，央行公布数据显示，我国11月末黄金储备报7412万盎司，环比增加3万盎司，为连续第13个月 增持黄金。 同日，国家外汇管理局统计数据显示，截至2025年11月末，我国外汇储备规模为33464亿美元，较10月 末上升30亿美元，升幅为0.09%。 各国央行和ETF基金仍在不断减持美债购入黄金 外汇储备连续四个月增加 今年以来中国外汇储备保持增长势头。其中，外汇储备在今年前6个月保持连续增长势头，分别增加 66.79亿美元、182亿美元、134.41亿美元、410亿美元、36亿美元、321.67亿美元，进入下半年，7月减 少251.87亿美元，8月增长299.19亿美元、9月增加165.04亿美元，10月小幅增加46.85亿美元、11月则小 幅增加30.29亿美元。 我国经济基础稳、优势多、韧性强、潜能大，是外汇储备规模保持基本稳定的根本支撑。外汇管理局表 示，2025年11月，受主要经济体宏观经济数据、货币政策预期等因素影响，美元指数下跌，全球金融资 产价格涨跌互现。汇率折算和资产价格变化等因素综合作用，当月外汇储备规模上升。我国经济保持总 体平稳、稳中有进发展态势，为外汇储备规模保持基本稳定提供支 ...

Group 1 - Precious metals prices have rebounded in November, with London gold rising 5.51% to $4223.1 per ounce and London silver increasing 15.91% to $56.397 per ounce, setting new historical records [1] - The expectation of a Federal Reserve rate cut in December has significantly influenced the rise in precious metals prices, with the probability of a rate cut exceeding 80% [3] - The fluctuations in precious metals prices from mid-October to mid-November were primarily due to the Federal Reserve's hawkish stance, easing geopolitical tensions, and diverging market forces [1][2] Group 2 - The Federal Reserve's recent dovish signals have led to a reassessment of the likelihood of a rate cut, with key officials indicating that the labor market is cooling and inflation expectations are stable [2][3] - Historical analysis shows that gold has experienced prolonged bull and bear market cycles, with the current bull market lasting nearly ten years and characterized by significant price increases [5][6] - The current bull market in gold has been supported by various factors, including Federal Reserve monetary policy, geopolitical issues, and increased central bank gold purchases [6]

Group 1: Stock Movements - Emperor International (00163) rose nearly 6% after reaching an agreement with banks to restore existing loan arrangements based on previously agreed commercial terms [1] - Gaming stocks generally increased, with MGM China (02282) up 3.43%, Melco International Development (00200) up 2.24%, Sands China (01928) up 2.32%, and Galaxy Entertainment (00027) up 1.81%. Morgan Stanley reported that total gaming revenue for the first 23 days of the month was MOP 15.6 billion, averaging MOP 678 million per day [1] - Dongyue Group (00189) increased nearly 5% as PVDF market prices rose from CNY 49,000 per ton at the beginning of November to CNY 52,000 per ton as of November 20 [1] - UBTECH Robotics (09880) surged over 4% after announcing a successful bid for a humanoid robot data collection and training center project in Jiangxi, valued at CNY 143 million [1] Group 2: Strategic Partnerships and Collaborations - China Energy Storage Technology (02399) fell over 6% after announcing a non-binding memorandum of understanding for strategic cooperation with Guo Heng Group Pte. Ltd. [2] - Yujian Technology (02432) rose over 6% after signing a strategic cooperation framework agreement with Green Source Group (02451) to promote the application of 5,000 robotic dogs in smart store upgrades [2] - Junsheng Electronics (00699) and Hezhima Intelligent (02533) continued to rise, with Junsheng up 4.14% after announcing a strategic cooperation to jointly develop robot control systems and solutions [3] Group 3: Market Trends and Consumer Behavior - Gold stocks collectively rose, with Zhenfeng Gold (01815) up 5.8%, China Silver Group (00815) up 2.99%, Lingbao Gold (03330) up 4.66%, Chifeng Gold (06693) up 3.3%, and China Gold International (02099) up 5.38%. Recent comments from Federal Reserve officials and delayed economic data have supported expectations for interest rate cuts [2] - Mixue Group (02097) saw a nearly 3% increase amid speculation about launching a breakfast menu, with initial trials in select cities [3] - Pop Mart (09992) rose nearly 4% following a government initiative aimed at enhancing consumer goods supply and promoting diverse consumption [4]

Core Viewpoint - The Russian Central Bank has begun selling physical gold reserves to address budget deficits, raising concerns about the potential end of the current gold bull market as global central banks continue to purchase gold aggressively [1][3][5]. Group 1: Russian Central Bank Actions - The Russian Central Bank started selling gold reserves in late November 2025 to cover a budget deficit exacerbated by frozen foreign exchange reserves due to sanctions [1][3]. - Russia's oil and gas revenues have decreased by 16.9% year-on-year in the first half of the year, leading to a fiscal deficit of 3.69 trillion rubles, nearing the annual limit [3]. - The sale of gold is a response to the inability to access approximately 300 billion euros of foreign reserves, with about 200 billion euros held in European clearing banks [1][3]. Group 2: Global Gold Market Dynamics - Despite Russia's gold sales, global central banks are expected to increase gold purchases, with Goldman Sachs predicting an average monthly purchase of 80 tons from Q4 2025 to 2026 [5]. - In the first half of 2025, global central banks net purchased 415 tons of gold, with 95% of surveyed central banks planning to increase their gold reserves in the next 12 months [5][7]. - The current gold price has risen over 50% since 2025, influenced by both central bank buying and the recent news of Russia's gold sales, which may prompt some investors to take profits [5][21]. Group 3: Domestic Gold Demand in Russia - Domestic gold demand in Russia is increasing, with citizens purchasing approximately 282 tons of gold over the past four years, and an expected increase of 62.2 tons in 2025 [3][8]. - The Russian government has eliminated VAT on retail gold purchases to stimulate domestic demand, helping sanctioned mining companies find new sales channels [3][8]. - The stability of the ruble has not been significantly affected by the Central Bank's gold sales, indicating a resilient domestic market [8]. Group 4: Broader Implications for Gold as an Asset - Geopolitical tensions and high global debt levels continue to enhance gold's appeal as a safe-haven asset and hedge against inflation [7][12]. - The liquidity and acceptance of gold as an international reserve asset remain unchanged, making it a crucial component of central bank reserves [21][30]. - Historical trends suggest that short-term market reactions to news may be smoothed by long-term trends, with central banks transitioning from net sellers to net buyers of gold post-2008 financial crisis [17][25].

Core Insights - The significant increase in household deposits in China, amounting to 12.73 trillion yuan in the first three quarters of 2025, reflects a cautious outlook among residents due to slowing economic recovery and weakened corporate profitability [2][4] - Despite a stable Consumer Price Index (CPI) with a year-on-year decrease of 0.3%, the real purchasing power is diminishing due to excessive money supply, leading to hidden devaluation of currency [2][7] Group 1: Household Deposits and Economic Context - The total increase in RMB deposits reached 22.71 trillion yuan, with household deposits accounting for over half, averaging nearly 9,000 yuan per person [5] - The growth rate of M2 at 8.4% significantly outpaces the growth of disposable income, indicating that the expansion of money supply dilutes the value of currency [5][7] - The low interest rates on savings, with three-year fixed rates dropping below 2%, result in negligible or negative real returns for depositors [7] Group 2: Real Estate Market Trends - The real estate market has seen a reversal, with the average price of second-hand homes in Beijing dropping from 43,000 yuan per square meter at the beginning of the year to 41,800 yuan by November [9] - Nationwide, the average price of second-hand residential properties fell by 0.34% month-on-month and 3.21% year-on-year, indicating a significant decline in market activity [9] Group 3: Investment Landscape - Gold has lost its appeal as a safe-haven asset, with prices fluctuating and high transaction fees eroding potential profits for individual investors [11] - The stock market, while experiencing some gains, has become highly volatile, with many retail investors facing losses due to rapid price changes in various sectors [13] - The digital yuan, despite its growing adoption, does not provide additional value protection against inflation, serving primarily as a more convenient payment method [15][16] Group 4: Economic Resilience - The increase in household savings reflects a collective caution among families regarding future economic conditions, contributing to a soft landing for the Chinese economy [18] - This cautious behavior, while indicative of underlying economic challenges, prevents the situation from escalating into a systemic crisis, showcasing the resilience of the Chinese economy [18]

Core Insights - The total value of global central bank gold holdings is expected to surpass that of U.S. Treasury bonds by the fall of 2025, indicating a significant shift in the perception of safe assets away from U.S. debt [2][10][25] - China's gold reserves have increased to 2,304 tons by October 2025, while its holdings of U.S. Treasury bonds have decreased to $730.7 billion, the lowest since 2009, reflecting a strategic long-term plan rather than a sudden decision [4][25] Summary by Sections China's Gold and U.S. Treasury Holdings - China's U.S. Treasury holdings have decreased from a peak of $1.32 trillion in 2013 to $730.7 billion in July 2025, a reduction of nearly 45% [4] - In contrast, China's gold reserves have grown from 1,948 tons at the end of 2020 to 2,304 tons by October 2025, with a value of approximately $300.7 billion, representing 41% of its U.S. Treasury holdings [4][6] Global Central Bank Trends - Following the Ukraine crisis in 2022, many central banks have shifted towards reducing U.S. Treasury holdings and increasing gold reserves, with 95% of central banks indicating plans to continue purchasing gold in the next year [8][10] - Emerging economies like Turkey, India, Poland, and Thailand are actively increasing the proportion of gold in their foreign exchange reserves [10] Shift in Global Financial Landscape - The percentage of U.S. dollars in global foreign exchange reserves has decreased from 71% in 2000 to 57% in 2024, marking a 30-year low, while gold remains a stable form of currency recognized across different eras and nations [13][15] - Non-Western countries are accumulating significant gold reserves, with estimates suggesting they hold 18,643 tons, nearing half of the global total [15] China's Strategic Position - China aims to increase its gold reserves to 15-20% of its foreign exchange reserves, which would require an additional 2,500 to 3,000 tons of gold, allowing for a gradual accumulation strategy [17] - As the largest producer and consumer of gold, China is less reliant on imports, providing a buffer against international market fluctuations [20][21] Implications for the Renminbi - China's gold reserves serve as a foundation for the internationalization of the Renminbi, allowing for greater confidence in trade settlements and potentially reducing reliance on the U.S. dollar [25][27] - The accumulation of gold is seen as a proactive measure to enhance financial sovereignty and stability in the face of changing global financial dynamics [29]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" outlook for the industry, indicating a relative strength of over 5% compared to market benchmarks [8][12]. Core Insights - The People's Bank of China has increased its gold reserves for 12 consecutive months, with a total of 7.409 million ounces as of October, reflecting a significant increase in value to $297.209 billion, up by $13.918 billion from the previous month [8]. - The proportion of gold in China's foreign exchange reserves has risen to 8.89%, an increase of 0.5 percentage points from the previous month, indicating potential for further growth compared to other major countries [8]. - The ongoing trend of de-dollarization and the internationalization of the Renminbi is expected to drive gold prices upward, with projections suggesting a potential rise to $4,500 to $5,000 per ounce in the medium term [8]. Summary by Sections Industry Overview - The report highlights the tightening supply expectations in the non-ferrous and steel sectors, suggesting potential investment opportunities in these segments [7]. Market Dynamics - The recent public consultation on the new "Steel Industry Capacity Replacement Measures" indicates that supply-side reforms may be imminent, which could positively impact the market [7]. Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on leading global copper and gold mining companies, particularly Zijin Mining (601899), which is expected to see significant growth in copper production in 2026 [8].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - Gold is expected to fluctuate, and there is still a probability of filling the previous gap. The medium - and long - term positive logic for gold remains, including potential Fed rate cuts, a weakening dollar, and central bank gold purchases due to global political and economic instability. It is recommended to hold the remaining long positions in gold medium - term and set stop - profits. For options, wait for opportunities to buy call options again [6]. 3. Summary According to Related Catalogs 3.1 Fundamental View - **Price Movement**: Since 2025, the price of the London gold and Shanghai gold indexes has increased by 51.55% and 49.17% respectively. Last week, they decreased by - 0.64% and - 0.07% respectively [4][17]. - **Inflation**: In June 2022, the CPI reached a high of 9.1% and then declined. The PCE also peaked in June 2022. Core CPI and core PCE showed a downward trend. Since February 2024, the CPI rebounded, and the decline of core inflation slowed or even reversed. In August, the PCE increased to 2.74% year - on - year, and the core PCE to 2.91%. In September, the US CPI inflation rose slightly, while the core CPI fell slightly and was lower than expected [4][20]. - **Interest Rates**: From mid - to late October 2023, the US medium - term Treasury bond yields declined until January this year. Since February 2024, they have rebounded, then fluctuated and declined near last year's high. Since September, they have fallen below the 2024 low and reached a new low [4][24]. - **Supply and Demand**: In 2024, the global gold supply - demand balance became less loose, mainly due to a large increase in investment demand. In China, gold supply increased slightly year - on - year, and demand also recovered, mainly due to a significant increase in investment demand. The central bank's gold purchases remained above 1000 tons. The domestic gold supply - demand is in a tight balance, mainly due to a significant increase in gold bars and coins. In the first half of 2025, investment demand increased significantly [4]. - **US Economy**: In August 2025, the US added 22,000 jobs, far lower than the market expectation of 70,000, reaching the lowest level since October last year. In August 2025, the average hourly wage of US non - farm employees increased by 0.4%, up 0.1% from the previous month. The unemployment rate in July remained at 4.3%. The non - farm employment data in August 2025 continued to be significantly weaker than expected [4][33]. 3.2 Strategy View and Outlook - **Outlook**: Last Friday, the main gold futures contract rebounded after hitting a low, with support at the 30 - day moving average. Gold is expected to fluctuate, and there is a chance to fill the previous gap. After the sharp rise in gold due to the Fed rate - cut expectations, the US government shutdown, and tariff hikes since the end of August, on the evening of October 21, the international gold price dropped significantly. The reasons are the decline in risk - aversion sentiment and profit - taking triggered by the overbought technical condition. However, the medium - and long - term positive factors for gold still exist [6]. - **Operation Suggestion**: Hold the remaining long positions in gold medium - term and set stop - profits. Wait for opportunities to buy call options [6]. 3.3 Industry Chain Structure (Periodic and Spot Markets) - Gold prices stopped falling last week. Since 2025, the London gold and Shanghai gold indexes have increased by 51.55% and 49.17% respectively, and last week they decreased by - 0.64% and - 0.07% respectively [15][17]. 3.4 Gold Supply and Demand - **Global and Domestic Supply - Demand Balance**: When the gold supply - demand is in a tight balance, it is conducive to rising gold prices; when it is in a weak balance, the impact on gold prices is small. In 2024, the global gold supply - demand became less loose, and in China, the supply increased slightly year - on - year while demand recovered, mainly due to increased investment demand [4][37]. - **Central Bank Gold Purchases**: In the second quarter of 2025, global central bank gold purchases continued to decline to 166.46 tons from 248.57 tons in the first quarter. From November 2022 to April 2024, the People's Bank of China continuously bought gold. After six consecutive months without purchases, it bought gold from November 2024 to September 2025, with a total purchase of 44.16 tons since 2024 [41]. - **ETF Demand**: In 2023, the gold holdings of ETFs decreased by 113.69 tons, and in 2024, they decreased by 28.46 tons. As of November 5, last week, gold ETFs increased their holdings by 1.55 tons, and in 2025, the holdings increased by 254.68 tons [45]. 3.5 Exchange Rate and Dollar Index - The domestic gold market has a slight premium over the international market. The report also presents data on the RMB exchange rate, the dollar index, and the exchange rates between the dollar and other currencies [69]. 3.6 Gold - Silver - Oil Ratio - The report provides data on the gold - silver ratio and the gold - oil ratio [73][75].

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights China's continuous increase in gold reserves, reflecting a strategic move to diversify international reserves and hedge against global macroeconomic risks [3][4]. Group 1: China's Gold Reserves - As of the end of October, China's gold reserves reached 74.09 million ounces (approximately 2304.457 tons), marking a month-on-month increase of 30,000 ounces (about 0.93 tons) and the 12th consecutive month of accumulation [3][4]. - The increase in gold reserves is part of a "low volume, multiple times" strategy by the People's Bank of China, aimed at smoothing market volatility and reducing the impact of large purchases on gold prices [3]. Group 2: Global Gold Market Trends - In October, gold prices hit a historical peak of $4,294 per ounce, marking the 50th new high of the year, before retreating to around $4,000 per ounce by the end of the month, with a cumulative increase of 4.9% for the month [3]. - The World Gold Council reported that global central banks accelerated gold purchases in Q3, with a net purchase of 220 tons, a 28% increase from Q2 and a 10% increase year-on-year [5]. - The demand for gold is driven by geopolitical tensions, persistent inflation, and uncertainties in global trade policies, leading to a sustained interest in gold as a safe-haven asset [5]. Group 3: Future Outlook - Analysts predict that the ongoing geopolitical uncertainties and weakening confidence in the dollar system will lead central banks and investors to continue increasing their gold holdings, supporting gold prices [5].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Macroeconomic indicators show mixed trends, with some signs of slowdown and others indicating growth potential. For example, GDP growth slowed slightly in Q3 2025, while export and import values increased year - on - year [1]. - The commodity market is influenced by various factors such as political events, supply - demand dynamics, and corporate strategies. Gold prices rose due to concerns about the US economy, and oil prices fell on fears of oversupply [4][9]. - The financial market is affected by central bank policies, government debt management, and international economic relations. The bond market continues to be volatile, and the stock market shows different performances in different regions [12][29]. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 1. Macro Data Overview - GDP growth in Q3 2025 was 4.8% year - on - year, down from 5.2% in the previous quarter [1]. - The manufacturing PMI in October 2025 was 49.0%, lower than the previous month and last year [1]. - The non - manufacturing PMI in October 2025 was 50.1%, slightly higher than the previous month but lower than last year [1]. - Social financing scale and money supply indicators showed different trends, with M1 growth accelerating and M2 growth slowing [1]. - CPI and PPI were both in negative territory in September 2025, indicating weak inflationary pressures [1]. - Fixed - asset investment decreased in September 2025, while social consumption and foreign trade showed growth [1]. 2. Commodity Investment Reference Comprehensive - China's October S&P services PMI was 52.6, and the composite PMI was 51.8, both slightly lower than the previous month [2]. - China announced measures to implement the consensus of the China - US economic and trade consultations in Kuala Lumpur, including tariff adjustments and relaxation of export controls [2]. - The US Supreme Court debated the legality of Trump's large - scale tariff policy, and a decision may be announced in December [2]. - On November 5, 2025, 34 domestic commodity varieties had positive basis, and 35 had negative basis [3]. Metals - International precious metal futures generally rose on November 5, 2025, due to concerns about the US government shutdown and economic outlook [4]. - Industrial and Commercial Bank of China plans to open a precious metal warehouse at Hong Kong International Airport [5]. - Anhui Province released a draft plan for the high - quality development of the gold industry from 2025 - 2027 [5]. - London Metal Exchange inventory data on November 4 showed changes in tin, lead, zinc, and other metal inventories [6]. Coal, Coke, Steel, and Minerals - The Shanghai Futures Exchange adjusted the trading limits and margin ratios for alumina futures contracts [7]. - Tongling Nonferrous Metals Group won the exploration rights for a copper - gold - molybdenum mine [7]. - The EU will investigate the sale of a nickel mine business to China Minmetals [7]. Energy and Chemicals - On November 5, 2025, US and Brent crude oil futures fell due to concerns about oversupply and increased US crude oil production [9]. - Libya plans to increase oil and gas production and is in talks with Chevron and Egyptian companies [9]. - Poland is negotiating to import more US LNG for Ukraine and Slovakia [9]. - Saudi Aramco set the official selling price for Arabian Light crude oil to Asia in December [9]. Agricultural Products - Chinese and US officials discussed agricultural trade, and China hopes the US will create a favorable environment for cooperation [10]. - The pig industry is facing challenges such as low prices, overcapacity, and high debt, and industry self - regulation is needed [10][11]. 3. Financial News Compilation Open Market - On November 5, 2025, the central bank conducted 655 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, with a net withdrawal of 4922 billion yuan [12]. Key News - China announced measures to implement the China - US economic and trade consultation consensus [13]. - The US Supreme Court debated the legality of Trump's tariff policy [13]. - China's October S&P services and composite PMIs decreased [13]. - Premier Li Qiang emphasized China's commitment to high - quality development and opening - up [13]. - Chinese and US officials discussed agricultural trade cooperation [14]. - The Chinese Foreign Ministry responded to the US Treasury Secretary's remarks [14]. - China and Russia agreed to strengthen macro - economic policy coordination [14]. - The central bank's 10 - month bond - buying operation resumed but was lower than expected [15]. - The Ministry of Finance established a Debt Management Department [16]. - The US Treasury announced its quarterly refinancing plan [17]. - Indonesia issued offshore RMB bonds in Hong Kong [17]. - Global bond sales reached a record high in 2025 [17]. - The US government shutdown continued, potentially affecting the economy [17]. - US ADP employment data was better than expected in October [18]. - There were various bond - related events, including debt restructuring, rating changes, and issuance cancellations [18][19]. Bond Market Summary - The Chinese bond market continued to fluctuate weakly, with limited impact from the central bank's bond - buying [20]. - Bond prices in the exchange market showed different trends, and interest rates in the money market had mixed changes [20][21]. - Yields of European and US bonds generally rose [24]. Foreign Exchange Market - The on - shore RMB against the US dollar depreciated slightly, while the offshore RMB appreciated [25]. - The US dollar index fell slightly, and non - US currencies showed different performances [25]. Research Report Highlights - Shenwan Fixed - Income believes that the probability of interest rate cuts may marginally increase, and the bond market may shift from a duration strategy to a carry - trade strategy [26]. - Yangtze River Fixed - Income expects the bond market to continue its recovery in Q4, with 10 - year Treasury bond yields likely to decline [27]. Today's Reminders - On November 6, 2025, a large number of bonds will be listed, issued, paid, and have their principal and interest repaid [28]. 4. Stock Market Key News - A - shares opened lower and closed higher, with the energy storage and new energy sectors leading the gains [29]. - The Hong Kong Hang Seng Index fell slightly, and the Southbound funds had a large net purchase [29][30].