Report Summary 1. Overall Information - Report Title: Galaxies Non - ferrous Metals R & D Report - Non - ferrous and Precious Metals Daily Morning Observation - Date: September 23, 2025 2. Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 3. Core Views - The precious metals market shows strong upward momentum, with gold hitting a new high and silver reaching its highest level since May 2011. The market is influenced by factors such as Fed interest rate expectations, geopolitical conflicts, and inflation concerns [2]. - The copper market is affected by macro - factors and supply - demand fundamentals. Although there is potential for further interest rate cuts, there are differences among policymakers. Supply is tight, and consumption shows a "peak season is not prosperous" situation [6][8]. - The alumina market has a weak fundamental trend, with domestic and foreign spot prices falling in resonance, and the import window opening slightly [11][13]. - The casting aluminum alloy market has a positive market expectation, with alloy ingot spot prices remaining stable and slightly strong [16][18]. - The electrolytic aluminum market is affected by Fed interest rate policies and domestic downstream demand. After the price correction, attention should be paid to the downstream stocking sentiment before the holidays [21][23]. - The zinc market has support at the bottom in the short term, and the price is expected to fluctuate within a range, mainly due to the potential reduction in domestic supply and the downstream pre - holiday stocking demand [25][26]. - The lead market has a situation where long and short factors are intertwined, and the price is expected to remain volatile at a high level [29][31]. - The nickel market maintains a wide - range oscillatory trend, with supply increasing faster than demand, and the price is affected by factors such as news from Indonesia and the Philippines [33][36]. - The stainless steel market is expected to remain oscillatory, with supply pressure above and support below due to factors such as production scheduling, inventory, and cost [39][42]. - The industrial silicon market may continue to correct in the short term, and the impact of polysilicon production scheduling and market sentiment on the price is greater [44][46]. - The polysilicon market has a long - term upward trend in spot prices, and the best strategy is to wait for the price to correct sufficiently before going long [48][50]. - The lithium carbonate market is expected to be oscillatory and slightly strong in the short term, with supply and demand both being strong [52][55]. - The tin market is expected to remain oscillatory at a high level, with tight supply at the mine end and weak demand [57][60]. 4. Summary by Metal Precious Metals - **Market Review** - Gold: London gold rose by over $60 during the day, hitting a new high of over $3740, and finally closed up 1.67% at $3746.63 per ounce. Shanghai gold futures rose 1.46% to 850.98 yuan per gram [2]. - Silver: London silver reached its highest level since May 2011, closing up 2.38% at $44.02 per ounce. Shanghai silver futures rose 1.77% to 10348 yuan per kilogram [2]. - Dollar Index: It first rose and then fell, ending a three - day winning streak, closing down 0.38% at 97.30 [2]. - US Treasury Yield: The 10 - year US Treasury yield continued to rebound, closing at 4.151% [2]. - RMB Exchange Rate: It fluctuated within a narrow range, closing down 0.07% at 7.1138 [2]. - **Important Information** - Fed officials' views are divided on further interest rate cuts. The probability of the Fed maintaining the interest rate unchanged in October is 10.2%, and the probability of a 25 - basis - point cut is 89.8%. In December, the probability of maintaining the interest rate unchanged is 1.7%, the probability of a cumulative 25 - basis - point cut is 23.1%, and the probability of a cumulative 50 - basis - point cut is 75.3% [2]. - **Logic Analysis** - After the Fed cut interest rates by 25 bps last week, the expectation of two more cuts this year remains high. The risk of stagflation in the US still exists, and geopolitical conflicts occasionally emerge, driving gold prices higher. Silver shows greater upward elasticity [2]. - **Trading Strategy** - Unilateral: Continue the low - buying idea. - Arbitrage: Wait and see. - Options: Collar call options [4]. Copper - **Market Review** - Futures: The night - session Shanghai copper 2511 contract closed at 80100 yuan per ton, down 0.02%. The Shanghai copper index decreased by 6971 lots to 470,600 lots. LME copper closed at $10002 per ton, up 0.06% [6]. - Spot: LME inventory decreased by 2275 tons to 145,300 tons, and COMEX inventory increased by 1511 tons to 318,200 tons [6]. - **Important Information** - Sino - US leaders' phone call improved market sentiment. Fed officials have different views on further interest rate cuts. Argentina plans to develop copper resources [6][8]. - **Logic Analysis** - Macro - factors are positive, but there are differences among policymakers on interest rate cuts. Supply is tight due to production accidents and other reasons, and consumption is weak [8]. - **Trading Strategy** - Unilateral: The copper price may consolidate at a high level in the short term. - Arbitrage: Continue to hold cross - market positive arbitrage positions. - Options: Wait and see [9]. Alumina - **Market Review** - Futures: The night - session alumina 2601 contract decreased by 28 yuan to 2906 yuan per ton [11]. - Spot: The spot prices in various regions decreased, with the national weighted index down 1.2 yuan to 3009 yuan [11]. - **Important Information** - Xinjiang's alumina spot tender price decreased. The operating capacity increased slightly. Australian alumina prices decreased, and China's alumina import and export data changed [11][13]. - **Logic Analysis** - Domestic and foreign spot prices are falling, the import window is slightly open, and the fundamentals are weak [13]. - **Trading Strategy** - Unilateral: The alumina price is expected to be weak. - Arbitrage: Wait and see. - Options: Wait and see [14]. Casting Aluminum Alloy - **Market Review** - Futures: The night - session casting aluminum alloy 2511 contract decreased by 50 yuan to 20265 yuan per ton [16]. - Spot: The spot prices in various regions decreased by 100 yuan per ton [16]. - **Important Information** - Policies affect the recycled aluminum industry. The social inventory of recycled aluminum alloy ingots in some regions changed, and the Shanghai Futures Exchange launched the standard warehouse receipt generation business for casting aluminum alloy [18]. - **Logic Analysis** - Some enterprises are stocking up for the National Day holiday. The downstream production rate is rising, and the market expectation is positive [18]. - **Trading Strategy** - Unilateral: After the aluminum alloy futures price pulls back from a high level, pay attention to the rebound opportunity supported by fundamentals. - Arbitrage: Wait and see. - Options: Wait and see [19]. Electrolytic Aluminum - **Market Review** - Futures: The night - session Shanghai aluminum 2511 contract decreased by 55 yuan to 20715 yuan per ton [21]. - Spot: The spot prices in various regions decreased [21]. - **Important Information** - Sino - US leaders' phone call. The inventory of aluminum ingots increased slightly. An Indonesian electrolytic aluminum project is progressing as planned, and China's aluminum export data changed [21][23]. - **Logic Analysis** - The Fed is cautious about further interest rate cuts. Attention should be paid to downstream stocking sentiment before the holidays [23]. - **Trading Strategy** - Unilateral: After the aluminum price pulls back, pay attention to the opportunity of stabilizing and rebounding. - Arbitrage: Wait and see. - Options: Wait and see [23]. Zinc - **Market Review** - Futures: LME zinc rose 0.05% to $2900 per ton, and Shanghai zinc 2511 rose 0.18% to 22035 yuan per ton. The Shanghai zinc index decreased by 1558 lots to 238,500 lots [25]. - Spot: The spot price in Shanghai increased slightly, and the downstream buying sentiment was strong [25]. - **Important Information** - The domestic zinc ingot inventory decreased, and the import data of zinc concentrate and refined zinc changed [25][26]. - **Logic Analysis** - Domestic supply may decrease slightly, and downstream pre - holiday stocking demand exists. The LME zinc price is supported by inventory reduction [26]. - **Trading Strategy** - Unilateral: The zinc price may fluctuate within a range in the short term. - Arbitrage: Wait and see. - Options: Wait and see [27]. Lead - **Market Review** - Futures: LME lead fell 0.17% to $1999.5 per ton, and Shanghai lead 2511 rose 0.03% to 17165 yuan per ton. The Shanghai lead index increased by 862 lots to 101,800 lots [29]. - Spot: The average price of SMM1 lead was flat. The trading volume was limited due to limited supply and high prices of recycled refined lead [29]. - **Important Information** - The domestic lead ingot inventory decreased, and the import data of lead concentrate and lead - acid batteries changed [29][31]. - **Logic Analysis** - Supply may increase as some smelters plan to resume production, and downstream enterprises may stock up before the holiday. The price is expected to remain volatile at a high level [31]. - **Trading Strategy** - Unilateral: The lead price may remain volatile at a high level in the short term. - Arbitrage: Wait and see. - Options: Wait and see [34][32]. Nickel - **Market Review** - Futures: LME nickel fell $70 to $15200 per ton, and Shanghai nickel NI2511 fell 220 yuan to 121410 yuan per ton. The index position increased by 1326 lots [33]. - Spot: The premiums of different nickel products were flat [33]. - **Important Information** - Rumors about an Indonesian mining company were refuted. The Democratic Republic of the Congo may extend the cobalt export ban [33][36]. - **Logic Analysis** - The nickel price pulled back with the weak commodity market. Supply is increasing faster than demand, and the price is affected by news from Indonesia and the Philippines [36]. - **Trading Strategy** - Unilateral: Wide - range oscillation. - Arbitrage: Wait and see. - Options: Wait and see [37]. Stainless Steel - **Market Review** - Futures: The main SS2511 contract rose 25 yuan to 12935 yuan per ton, and the index position decreased by 1804 lots [39]. - Spot: The spot prices of cold - rolled and hot - rolled stainless steel were in a certain range [41]. - **Important Information** - US import tariffs affect the stainless steel market. Taiwan's imports from Vietnam decreased. China's stainless steel consumption increased [41]. - **Logic Analysis** - Production scheduling has increased, but demand has not shown seasonal strength. The price is expected to remain oscillatory [42]. - **Trading Strategy** - Unilateral: Wide - range oscillation. - Arbitrage: Wait and see [42]. Industrial Silicon - **Market Review** - Futures: The main industrial silicon futures contract decreased by 0.83% to 8950 yuan per ton, with significant position reduction [44]. - Spot: The spot price increased by 100 - 150 yuan per ton [44]. - **Important Information** - Yunnan silicon plants plan to reduce production due to electricity price increases. The inventory structure is "low at both ends and high in the middle" [46]. - **Logic Analysis** - The inventory structure is prone to positive feedback between futures and spot. The impact of polysilicon production scheduling and market sentiment on the price is greater [46]. - **Trading Strategy** - Unilateral: Participate after the price stabilizes from the correction. - Options: Look for opportunities to sell out - of - the - money put options. - Arbitrage: None [46]. Polysilicon - **Market Review** - Futures: The main polysilicon futures contract decreased by 3.63% to 50990 yuan per ton, with position increase [48]. - Spot: The spot price was stable [48]. - **Important Information** - Spain's self - use photovoltaic installation capacity has declined for three consecutive years [48]. - **Logic Analysis** - The spot price is likely to rise in the long term. There are short - term negative factors for futures, and the best strategy is to go long after the price correction [50]. - **Trading Strategy** - Unilateral: Go long after the price corrects sufficiently. - Arbitrage: Reverse arbitrage between 2511 and 2512 contracts. - Options: None [50]. Lithium Carbonate - **Market Review** - Futures: The main 2511 contract decreased by 140 yuan to 73480 yuan per ton. The position and warehouse receipts decreased [52]. - Spot: The spot prices of electric and industrial lithium carbonate increased [52]. - **Important Information** - Canada's renewable energy market has great potential, and China's lithium - ion battery export data increased [52][55]. - **Logic Analysis** - The price pulled back due to the weak commodity market. Supply growth is limited, and demand is strong. The price is expected to be oscillatory and slightly strong [55]. - **Trading Strategy** - Unilateral: Oscillatory and slightly strong. - Arbitrage: Wait and see. - Options: Sell out - of - the - money put options [55]. Tin - **Market Review** - Futures: The main Shanghai tin 2510 contract decreased by 0.28% to 270610 yuan per ton, and the position increased by 263 lots [57]. - Spot: The spot price rose, and the inventory decreased [57]. - **Important Information** - Sino - US relations and Fed officials' views. An Indonesian tin company expects to achieve its production target [57][59]. - **Logic Analysis** - Supply at the mine end is tight, and demand is weak. Attention should be paid to Myanmar's复产 and electronic consumption recovery [60]. - **Trading Strategy** - Unilateral: Remain oscillatory at a high level. - Options: Wait and see [61].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - The Fed has entered a new round of interest - rate cut cycles, and the continued improvement of US manufacturing data is favorable for non - ferrous metals in the long - term. However, after the interest - rate cut is implemented, there will be a phased adjustment, and future trends depend on economic data [11]. - Different non - ferrous metals have different market conditions and investment strategies. For example, copper is recommended to go long on dips; zinc can be moderately long on dips; the aluminum industry chain is recommended to be short; tin short - term long positions can be appropriately taken profit; lead can be long on dips; nickel and stainless steel can be long on dips [3][4][5][6][7][8]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 First Part: Non - ferrous Metal Operation Logic and Investment Suggestions - **Macro Logic**: The Fed cut interest rates by 25bp, starting a new round of interest - rate cut cycles. China's one - year and five - year LPR in September remained unchanged. China's central bank adheres to an independent monetary policy and implements a moderately loose monetary policy. After the interest - rate cut, there was a phased adjustment, and future trends depend on economic data [11]. - **This Week's Focus**: The release of August PCE and September European and American manufacturing PMIs, intensive speeches by Fed officials including Powell, the release of China's September LPR, and the participation of Pan Gongsheng, Wu Qing, and Li Yunze in the "14th Five - Year Plan" series of press conferences [12]. - **Non - ferrous Metal Strategies**: Different non - ferrous metals have different operation logics, support and pressure areas, market judgments, and investment strategies. For example, copper is expected to strengthen in shock and is recommended to go long on dips; zinc will fluctuate in a range and can be long on dips; the aluminum industry chain is expected to be weak and is recommended to be short; tin will rebound in shock and short - term long positions can be reduced; lead will fluctuate upward and can be long on dips; nickel and stainless steel are recommended to be long on dips [13][14][15]. 3.2 Second Part: Non - ferrous Metal Market Review The closing prices and price changes of various non - ferrous metals are presented. For example, copper closed at 80160 with a 0.31% increase; zinc closed at 22090 with a 0.20% increase; aluminum closed at 20745 with a 0.24% decrease, etc. [16]. 3.3 Third Part: Non - ferrous Metal Position Analysis The latest position analysis of the non - ferrous metal sector shows the net long - short strength comparison, net long - short position differences, changes in net long and net short positions, and influencing factors of different varieties such as silver, gold, tin, copper, etc. [18]. 3.4 Fourth Part: Non - ferrous Metal Spot Market The spot prices and price changes of various non - ferrous metals are provided. For example, the Yangtze River Non - ferrous copper spot price is 80340 yuan/ton with a 0.24% increase; the Yangtze River Non - ferrous 0 zinc spot average price is 21960 yuan/ton with a 0.14% decrease, etc. [19][21]. 3.5 Fifth Part: Non - ferrous Metal Industry Chain Graphs related to the industry chain of various non - ferrous metals are presented, including inventory changes, processing fees, price trends, etc. For example, for copper, there are graphs of exchange copper inventory changes and SMM social copper inventory changes; for zinc, there are graphs of zinc inventory changes and zinc concentrate processing fee changes [23][27]. 3.6 Sixth Part: Non - ferrous Metal Arbitrage Graphs related to non - ferrous metal arbitrage are presented, including changes in the Shanghai - London ratio, basis spreads, and price differences between different varieties. For example, for copper, there are graphs of copper Shanghai - London ratio changes and the basis spread between Shanghai copper and London copper [56]. 3.7 Seventh Part: Non - ferrous Metal Options Graphs related to non - ferrous metal options are presented, including historical volatility, weighted implied volatility, trading volume, and open - interest changes. For example, for copper, there are graphs of copper option historical volatility and copper option weighted implied volatility [72].

更多分析师加入看多更多贵金属行列。 美联储降息预期、避险需求叠加投资热情，推动金价在今日（23日）亚太交易时段再创3749.27美元/盎司的历史 新高。白银也连续上涨三日，逼近44美元/盎司的逾14年新高。市场正密切关注白银能否突破1980年1月的历史收 盘高点48.70美元/盎司。 金银比翼同飞之际，以大宗商品全球主管马克西米利安·莱顿（Maximilian Layton）为首德花旗策略师团队预 测，"在美联储新鸽派领导层在2026年5~6月上任的前景、美国实际利率下降及美元承压的推动下，黄金和白银的 牛市行情将进一步扩大，并最终在2026年延伸至铜和铝领域。" 金价又又又创新高，开启长牛模式 金价今日微涨至3749.27美元/盎司，此前两个交易日连续上涨。 本轮金价上涨最直接的引擎，无疑来自于市场对美联储将进一步降息的强烈预期。虽然美联储主席鲍威尔仍强调 未来降息路径将保持谨慎，但市场仍预计美联储未来将大幅降息。 瑞士宝盛新世纪思维研究主管曼克（Carsten Menke）在降息前后对一财记者表示，过去几周，货币政策无疑是投 资需求增加的主要推动力，短线交易员与市场跟风者担心自己会错过这一波上涨，进一步推 ...

Company Overview - Shenhua Co., Ltd. is located in Yongcheng, Henan Province, and was established on August 31, 1998, with its listing date on August 31, 1999. The company primarily engages in the production, processing, and sales of aluminum products and coal, as well as power generation and supply [1]. - The main business revenue composition includes: electrolytic aluminum (69.40%), coal (14.11%), aluminum foil (6.41%), aluminum foil raw materials (4.44%), trading (3.82%), other businesses (1.73%), transportation (0.05%), anode carbon blocks (0.03%), and coking (0.03%) [1]. Stock Performance - As of September 23, Shenhua's stock price decreased by 2.03%, trading at 18.84 CNY per share, with a total market capitalization of 42.378 billion CNY. The stock has seen a year-to-date increase of 14.86%, but has declined by 3.24% over the last five trading days and 3.83% over the last twenty days [1]. - The trading volume on September 23 was 3.91 billion CNY, with a turnover rate of 0.91%. The net outflow of main funds was 55.746 million CNY, with large orders accounting for 17.11% of purchases and 26.53% of sales [1]. Financial Performance - For the period from January to June 2025, Shenhua reported a revenue of 20.428 billion CNY, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 12.12%. However, the net profit attributable to shareholders decreased by 16.62% to 1.904 billion CNY [2]. - Since its A-share listing, Shenhua has distributed a total of 9.422 billion CNY in dividends, with 5.843 billion CNY distributed over the last three years [3]. Shareholder Information - As of September 10, the number of shareholders for Shenhua increased to 70,800, marking an 8.26% rise. The average circulating shares per person decreased by 7.63% to 31,746 shares [2]. - As of June 30, 2025, the top ten circulating shareholders included Hong Kong Central Clearing Limited, holding 39.055 million shares (a decrease of 19.738 million shares), and Southern CSI 500 ETF, which entered as a new shareholder with 23.374 million shares [3].

Core Viewpoint - China Aluminum's stock price has experienced fluctuations, with a recent decline of 2.08% and a year-to-date increase of 4.37% [1] Financial Performance - For the first half of 2025, China Aluminum reported revenue of 116.39 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 5.13%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 7.07 billion yuan, up 0.77% year-on-year [2] - Cumulative cash dividends since the A-share listing amount to 11.25 billion yuan, with 5.71 billion yuan distributed over the past three years [3] Shareholder Information - As of June 30, 2025, the number of shareholders increased to 366,900, reflecting a growth of 5.08% [2] - The top ten circulating shareholders include new entrants such as Huaxia SSE 50 ETF and Huatai-PB CSI 300 ETF, with significant holdings [3] Market Activity - As of September 23, the stock price was 7.53 yuan per share, with a trading volume of 828 million yuan and a turnover rate of 0.82% [1] - The stock has seen a decline of 4.44% over the last five trading days and a decrease of 7.95% over the last 20 days [1]

Group 1: Energy Crude Oil - The short - term strategy is to sell at high prices, with the estimated average price of Brent crude in Q4 dropping to $63 per barrel from $67 in Q3. There are still geopolitical risks and supply disturbances [1] Fuel Oil - It is expected to follow crude oil in a weak and volatile pattern. High - sulfur demand is falling, and low - sulfur supply is under pressure, but both lack strong price drivers [19] Natural Gas (implied in LPG) - LPG is expected to trade in a bottom - grinding pattern. Supply has decreased slightly, demand has increased marginally, and the import cost is expected to improve [21] Coal (implied in Coke and Coking Coal) - Coke and coking coal prices are relatively firm due to high iron - water production. However, there is a game between price increases and decreases, and inventory is accumulating [14][15] Bitumen - It showed a relatively small decline in the oil products market. Demand is increasing due to pre - holiday rush work, and inventory is decreasing [20] Group 2: Metals Precious Metals - They are in a medium - term upward trend but should be treated with caution in the short term due to inflation pressure and geopolitical games [2] Base Metals - Aluminum: It is in a callback. Market drivers are weak, and it is necessary to pay attention to whether pre - holiday stocking can drive positive feedback between inventory and spot [3] - Zinc: Short - term rebounds may occur, but the overall strategy is to sell on rebounds due to the supply - demand imbalance during the holiday [6] - Lead: The fundamentals have improved in the short term, but the upward trend is under pressure due to external market supply [7] - Nickel: The supply disturbance has subsided, and the overall trend is weak [8] - Manganese Silicon and Ferrosilicon: In the context of "anti - involution", it is recommended to buy on dips [16][17] Iron and Steel - Steel prices are in a rebound but with limited upside due to weak demand. Iron ore is expected to fluctuate at a high level [12][13] Group 3: Chemicals Polycrystalline Silicon - The short - term futures may face a correction, but there may be a chance for a phased recovery if it stabilizes at the support level [10] Industrial Silicon - It is expected to continue the volatile pattern as the supply - demand contradiction persists [11] PVC and Caustic Soda - PVC may show a weak and volatile trend due to supply - demand imbalance. Caustic soda has a game between weak reality and strong expectations [27] PX and PTA - Their market expectations are weakening, and the processing margins have limited room for repair [28] Ethylene Glycol - It is under pressure due to new device expectations, but the current supply pressure is not large [29] Short - fiber and Bottle - grade Chip - Short - fiber can be considered for long - term allocation, while bottle - grade chip has limited room for processing margin recovery [30] Glass - It is in a pattern of high supply and weak demand. It is recommended to wait and see before the festival and look for long opportunities near the cost [31] 20 - rubber, Natural Rubber, and Butadiene Rubber - It is recommended to wait and see, paying attention to the impact of typhoon weather on supply [32] Urea - Supply is increasing, and the market may continue to be under pressure in the short term [22] Methanol - It is in a weak position in the short term, and attention should be paid to the actual implementation of overseas device gas restrictions [23] Pure Benzene - The reality is okay, but the expectation is weak due to high import expectations and poor downstream profits [24] Styrene - Supply is increasing more than demand, and the price trend is weak [25] Polypropylene and Plastic - They are in a weak and volatile pattern due to the game between supply and demand [26] Group 4: Agricultural Products Grains - Corn futures may continue to be weak at the bottom due to sufficient supply [38] Oilseeds and Oils - Soybean and soybean meal may continue to fluctuate in the short term, and soybean meal can be cautiously bullish in the long term. Soybean oil and palm oil should pay attention to trade trends and can be considered for long - term buying [34][35] Cotton - It is recommended to wait and see after the downward break. New cotton production is expected to be high, but the impact of possible抢购is controllable [40] Sugar - US sugar is under pressure, and the domestic market focuses on the next season's production estimate [41] Fruit - Apple futures are expected to decline in the short term due to expected high inventory [42] Wood - The price increase momentum is insufficient due to weak peak - season demand, and it is recommended to wait and see [43] Pulp - It is in a low - level volatile pattern, and attention should be paid to inventory and warehouse receipt changes [44] Group 5: Others Shipping - The container shipping index may return to the downward channel if the Maersk opening price continues to decline [18] Stock Index - The stock market is in a volatile state, and it is recommended to increase the allocation of technology - growth sectors in the medium term and consider the Hang Seng Technology Index [44] Bond - The bond market shows a structural differentiation, and the yield curve is expected to steepen [45]

Core Viewpoint - Nanshan Aluminum's stock has experienced a decline, with a current price of 3.80 CNY per share and a market capitalization of 44.132 billion CNY, reflecting a challenging market environment for the company [1]. Financial Performance - For the first half of 2025, Nanshan Aluminum reported a revenue of 17.274 billion CNY, representing a year-on-year growth of 10.25%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 2.625 billion CNY, which is a 19.95% increase compared to the previous year [2]. - Cumulative cash dividends since the company's A-share listing amount to 10.027 billion CNY, with 4.306 billion CNY distributed over the last three years [3]. Shareholder Information - As of June 30, 2025, the number of shareholders for Nanshan Aluminum is 165,500, a decrease of 7.76% from the previous period, while the average number of circulating shares per person increased by 8.41% to 70,175 shares [2]. - The top ten circulating shareholders include significant institutional investors, with Hong Kong Central Clearing Limited holding 749 million shares, an increase of 10.976 million shares from the previous period [3].

Industry Investment Ratings No investment ratings are provided in the report. Core Viewpoints - After the Fed cut interest rates by 25bp as expected, the market quickly digested the expectation and shifted to a volatile state. The technology sector still dominates the market. With the holiday approaching, capital activity has declined [2]. - Without incremental negative factors, 1.8% may be the high point for the 10 - year Treasury yield, but in the absence of strong positive factors, the short - term downward movement of the yield is also limited, with resistance around 1.75% [2]. - Gold remains in a high - level volatile state, and its volatility may rise again. Silver has high upward elasticity driven by突发事件 but the sentiment fades quickly [2]. - The EC futures contract continues to decline, and the main contract is weakly volatile [2]. - Steel exports support the valuation of the black commodity sector, and the spread between hot - rolled and rebar contracts is narrowing [2]. - The decline in iron ore shipments, the rebound in molten iron production, and the restocking demand support the strong price of iron ore [2]. - Coal prices at production areas are stable with a slight upward trend, and downstream restocking demand supports the upward trend of coal futures [2]. - The copper market is in a volatile consolidation phase, and the spot trading volume is good below 80,000 [2]. - There are more supply - side disturbances in Guinea for aluminum, and it is expected to fluctuate widely around the bottom of 2900 in the short term [2]. - The supply of tin ore imports remained low in August, providing fundamental support [2]. - Concerns about marginal increases in oil supply have led to a downward shift in short - term oil prices, but geopolitical factors still provide some support [2]. - The high supply pressure of urea persists, and the progress of urea factory orders before the National Day needs attention [2]. - The supply - demand outlook for PX has further weakened, and the cost side is also weak, putting short - term pressure on prices [2]. - The supply - demand situation of PTA has improved slightly but remains weak in the medium term, with limited driving forces [2]. - The short - fiber market has no obvious short - term drivers and follows the raw material price fluctuations [2]. - The demand for bottle - grade polyester chips has improved temporarily, but the supply - demand pattern remains loose, with limited upside for processing fees [2]. - The new ethylene glycol plant commissioning expectation and the weak terminal market put pressure on the upside of MEG [2]. - With the holiday approaching, the mid - stream of caustic soda is in a wait - and - see mode, and the spot price is under pressure [2]. - The spot procurement enthusiasm for PVC is average, and the market is in a volatile state [2]. - The supply - demand outlook for pure benzene has weakened, and the price driving force is limited [2]. - The weak oil price expectation puts pressure on the absolute price of styrene [2]. - The cost and supply - demand drivers for synthetic rubber are limited, and it may follow the trends of natural rubber and other commodities [2]. - The sentiment in the LLDPE spot market has weakened, and the basis remains stable [2]. - The number of PP plant overhauls has increased, and the trading volume is average [2]. - The port inventory of methanol has been accumulating, and the price is weak [2]. - After Argentina取消 the export tax, the two -粕 market is under pressure again [2]. - The pig slaughter pressure is high, and the spot price is unlikely to improve before the National Day [2]. - Under the bearish expectation, the corn futures price continues to decline [2]. - The Sino - US talks did not release incremental positive factors, and the oilseed market is in a volatile adjustment phase [2]. - The overseas sugar supply outlook is broad [2]. - With new cotton gradually coming onto the market, the supply pressure is increasing [2]. - The local domestic sales in the egg market still provide some support for demand, but the long - term trend is bearish [2]. - The early Fuji apples are traded at negotiated prices, and the sales volume is acceptable [2]. - The spot price of red dates fluctuates slightly, and the futures market is in a volatile state [2]. - The overall sentiment in the soda ash market has declined, and the price is trending weakly [2]. - The production and sales of glass have weakened, and the futures price has declined [2]. - Affected by typhoon weather, the rubber price is strongly volatile in the short term [2]. - The market sentiment for industrial silicon has weakened, and the price has declined [2]. - Affected by fundamental sentiment, the polysilicon price has dropped significantly [2]. - With no new news, the market sentiment for lithium carbonate is temporarily stable, and the fundamentals are in a tight balance during the peak season [2]. Summaries by Categories Equity Index Futures - Recommend selling short - term put options on the IF2509, IH2509, IC2509, and MO2511 contracts near the strike price of 6600 when the index pulls back to collect option premiums [2]. Treasury Futures - The T2512 contract is expected to fluctuate between 107.5 and 108.35. For single - side strategies, investors are advised to trade within the range, and consider going long lightly when the price pulls back to the low level if the market sentiment stabilizes, but should pay attention to taking profits in time. For the spot - futures strategy, the basis of the TL contract is oscillating at a high level, and investors can appropriately participate in the basis narrowing strategy [2]. Precious Metals - For gold, consider buying at low levels or buying out - of - the - money call options instead of going long. For silver, sell out - of - the - money put options when the price is high [2]. Freight Index Futures (EC) - Consider the spread arbitrage between the December and October contracts [2]. Black Commodities - For steel, try to go long on pullbacks and narrow the spread between the January hot - rolled and rebar contracts. For iron ore, go long on the 2601 contract at low levels, with the reference range of 780 - 850, and consider a long - iron - ore short - hot - rolled strategy. For coking coal, go long on the 2601 contract at low levels, with the reference range of 1150 - 1300, and consider a long - coking - coal short - coke strategy. For coke, go long on the 2601 contract at low levels, with the reference range of 1650 - 1800, and consider a long - coking - coal short - coke strategy [2]. Non - ferrous Metals - For copper, the main contract reference range is 79,000 - 81,000. For aluminum, the main contract reference range is 20,600 - 21,000. For aluminum alloy, the main contract reference range is 20,200 - 20,600. For zinc, the main contract reference range is 21,500 - 22,500 [2][3]. Energy and Chemicals - For crude oil, temporarily observe on the single - side, with the support range of WTI at [60, 61], Brent at [63, 64], and SC at [467, 474]. For urea, wait for the implied volatility to rise and then narrow it. For PX, short on rebounds following the crude oil trend and pay attention to the support around 6500. For PTA, short on rebounds following the crude oil trend, pay attention to the support around 4500, and consider a rolling reverse spread strategy between the January and May contracts. For short - fiber, the single - side strategy is the same as PTA, and the processing fee oscillates between 800 - 1100. For bottle - grade polyester chips, the single - side strategy is the same as PTA, and the processing fee is expected to fluctuate between 350 - 500. For ethylene glycol, sell call options on rallies and consider a reverse spread strategy between the January and May contracts. For caustic soda, adopt a short - selling strategy. For PVC, observe. For pure benzene, it will follow the benzene - ethylene and oil price fluctuations in the short term. For benzene - ethylene, short on absolute price rebounds and widen the spread between the November benzene - ethylene and November pure - benzene contracts. For synthetic rubber, pay attention to the support around 11,400. For LLDPE, observe near the previous low. For PP, observe in the short term. For methanol, observe as the downward space is currently limited [2]. Agricultural Products - For soybeans and rapeseed meal, adjust weakly in the short term. For live pigs, pay attention to the reverse spread opportunities between the January - May and March - July contracts. For corn, it is in a weak trend. For oils, the main palm oil contract adjusts weakly in the short term. For sugar, hold short positions. For cotton, adopt a short - selling strategy in the short term. For eggs, control the short - position size. For apples, the main contract runs around 8300. For red dates, it is bearish in the medium - to - long term. For soda ash, observe. For glass, observe. For rubber, observe. For industrial silicon, the main price fluctuation range is expected to be between 8000 - 9500 yuan/ton. For polysilicon, observe temporarily. For lithium carbonate, the main contract is expected to run between 70,000 - 75,000 [2].

Company Overview - Tianshan Aluminum Industry Co., Ltd. is located at 9th Floor, ProLogis Building, No. 2389 Zhangyang Road, Pudong New District, Shanghai, established on November 3, 1997, and listed on December 31, 2010 [1] - The company primarily engages in the production and sales of primary aluminum, aluminum deep processing products and materials, prebaked anodes, high-purity aluminum, and alumina [1] - The revenue composition includes: 65.26% from sales of self-produced aluminum ingots, 24.20% from alumina sales, 6.89% from aluminum foil and aluminum foil blanks, 2.10% from high-purity aluminum sales, and 1.55% from other sources [1] Financial Performance - As of June 30, 2025, Tianshan Aluminum achieved operating revenue of 15.328 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 11.19%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 2.084 billion yuan, a year-on-year growth of 0.51% [2] - Cumulative cash dividends since the A-share listing amount to 6.562 billion yuan, with 3.463 billion yuan distributed over the past three years [3] Stock Performance - As of September 23, Tianshan Aluminum's stock price decreased by 2.08%, trading at 10.82 yuan per share, with a total market capitalization of 50.333 billion yuan [1] - Year-to-date, the stock price has increased by 41.03%, with a recent decline of 5.09% over the last five trading days, a 5.46% increase over the last 20 days, and a 25.23% increase over the last 60 days [1] Shareholder Information - As of June 30, 2025, the number of shareholders reached 49,700, an increase of 4.44% from the previous period, with an average of 83,175 circulating shares per shareholder, a decrease of 4.25% [2] - Among the top ten circulating shareholders, Hong Kong Central Clearing Limited is the seventh largest, holding 113 million shares, a decrease of 10.084 million shares from the previous period [3] Market Activity - On September 23, the net outflow of main funds was 4.0862 million yuan, with large orders accounting for 15.68% of purchases and 22.68% of sales [1]

Company Overview - Jiangsu Dingsheng New Material Co., Ltd. is located in Zhenjiang, Jiangsu Province, and was established on August 12, 2003. The company was listed on April 18, 2018. Its main business involves the research, production, and sales of aluminum foil, with revenue composition being 85.57% from aluminum foil products, 12.80% from aluminum plates and strips, and 1.64% from other products [1]. Financial Performance - As of June 30, 2025, Dingsheng New Material achieved operating revenue of 13.314 billion yuan, representing a year-on-year growth of 15.94%. The net profit attributable to shareholders was 188 million yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 2.33% [2]. - The company has distributed a total of 910 million yuan in dividends since its A-share listing, with 682 million yuan distributed over the past three years [3]. Stock Performance - On September 23, Dingsheng New Material's stock price decreased by 2.05%, trading at 10.52 yuan per share, with a total market capitalization of 9.776 billion yuan. The stock has increased by 19.68% year-to-date, but has seen a decline of 6.65% over the past five trading days [1]. - The stock's trading volume included a net outflow of 19.2592 million yuan from main funds, with significant selling pressure observed [1]. Shareholder Information - As of June 30, 2025, the number of shareholders decreased by 7.03% to 45,500, while the average circulating shares per person increased by 8.91% to 20,420 shares [2]. - Among the top ten circulating shareholders, Hong Kong Central Clearing Limited is the ninth largest shareholder, having acquired 8.8482 million shares as a new shareholder [3]. Industry Context - Dingsheng New Material operates within the non-ferrous metals sector, specifically in industrial metals and aluminum. The company is associated with concepts such as green packaging, solid-state batteries, lithium batteries, and sodium batteries [1].