Group 1 - The nickel market is experiencing a mix of bullish and bearish factors, leading to a strong fluctuation in prices [1] - Bullish factors include rising demand from the new energy sector and increased demand from some downstream precursor manufacturers, resulting in stable transactions [1] - Bearish factors consist of high nickel ore inventories, a clear supply-demand imbalance, and weakening demand in stainless steel and new energy sectors due to increased supply from Indonesia [1] Group 2 - The expectation of a Federal Reserve interest rate cut has increased, leading to a decline in the dollar and an uplift in domestic liquidity, which boosts demand expectations [1] - Despite the support at the lower end of the nickel price range, the overall market remains volatile [1]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided regarding the industry investment rating in the given content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Nickel market: The expectation of nickel surplus persists, with general spot trading. Downstream demand has increased slightly overall due to the rise in stainless - steel production in August. The supply side has also seen a slight increase month - on - month, resulting in a slow increase in inventory. Nickel prices are expected to remain in a volatile pattern, and attention should be paid to changes in the macro - situation [6]. - Stainless - steel market: The global economic outlook and tariff policy changes still affect the external demand for stainless steel, and the Fed's decisions also influence the macro - atmosphere. Stainless - steel prices lack upward demand drivers but are supported by costs at the bottom, so they are expected to maintain a wide - range oscillation [9]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Chapter 1: Spread Tracking and Inventory 3.1.1 Nickel - Global Nickel Inventory Slow Accumulation - Global visible inventory stands at 258,000 tons, including 211,000 tons in LME inventory, 27,000 tons in SHFE inventory, and 41,000 tons in SMM's six - location social inventory [11]. 3.1.2 Stainless Steel - Social Inventory Reduction - Steel mills have fine - tuned the arrival volume of goods in the spot market, with limited new supplies. Social inventory has decreased for five consecutive weeks. Some steel mills that had centralized maintenance in August have announced复产 plans [8]. 3.2 Chapter 2: Fundamental Analysis 3.2.1 Nickel Supply and Demand - **Supply**: From January to July, the cumulative production of refined nickel increased by 40% year - on - year to 229,000 tons. It is expected that the total domestic refined nickel production in August will be 32,500 tons, a slight increase of 1% month - on - month. In the first six months of 2025, the net import of domestic refined nickel was 5,093 tons, compared with a net export of 922 tons in the same period last year [23]. - **Demand**: From January to July, the cumulative consumption of pure nickel increased by 3% year - on - year to 170,000 tons. In July, the downstream demand for nickel improved, and the PMI of the nickel downstream industry returned to the 50 boom - bust line, mainly driven by the recovery of stainless steel. The demand for electroplating and alloys remained stable, while that for batteries declined slightly [27]. 3.2.2 Stainless - Steel Raw Materials - **Nickel Ore**: The price of nickel ore has stabilized. The rainy season is approaching in the Philippines, and nickel mines are showing a strong price - holding sentiment. Some mines have reported higher FOB prices for September shipments. In Indonesia, the premium for domestic nickel ore in August remained at HPM + 24 (excluding rewards) [29]. - **NPI**: The NPI price has rebounded following the stainless - steel market. The latest transaction price of NPI has risen above 950 yuan per nickel point, and the raw material side is relatively strong [8]. - **Chromium Series**: Chromium ore prices have remained stable for a long time. In August 2025, Tsingshan Group's long - term contract purchase price for high - carbon ferrochrome was 7,995 yuan per 50 - base ton (cash - inclusive delivered - to - factory price), a decrease of 100 yuan per 50 - base ton compared with July [36]. - **Cold - Rolled Cost**: The cold - rolled cost has increased. Taking high - nickel iron at 950 yuan per nickel point and high - carbon ferrochrome at 8,150 yuan per 50 - base ton as an example, the estimated cold - rolled cash cost is around 13,300 yuan per ton [39]. 3.2.3 Stainless - Steel Supply and Demand - **Supply**: From January to July, the combined stainless - steel crude steel production in China and India was 25.86 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 6%. In August, production in Indonesia resumed, and domestic production remained basically flat. The planned production increased by 30,000 tons compared with July and remained at a high level [47]. - **Demand**: The production plan of white - goods has declined, while the shipbuilding industry provides support. In the first six months of 2025, China's stainless - steel import volume was 827,000 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 25%, and the export volume was 2.5 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 6%. The net export volume was 1.673 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 33% [47]. 3.2.4 New Energy Vehicles - **Domestic Sales**: From January to July, the production and sales of new energy vehicles reached 6.968 million and 6.937 million respectively, a year - on - year increase of 41.4% and 40.3%. The retail sales of new energy vehicles from August 1 - 10 were 262,000, a year - on - year and month - on - month increase of 6%. The penetration rate of new energy vehicle retail sales was 57.9% [56]. - **Overseas Market**: From January to June 2025, global new energy vehicle sales increased by 30.8% year - on - year to 9.55 million. In the US, sales increased by 0.6% year - on - year to 828,000, and in Europe, sales increased by 22.4% year - on - year to 1.756 million. China's new energy vehicle exports from January to July increased by 81% year - on - year to 1.281 million [60]. 3.2.5 Sulfuric Acid Nickel Market - **Production**: From January to July, China's sulfuric acid nickel production decreased by 17.4% year - on - year to 182,000 tons. The production of ternary precursors decreased by 3% year - on - year to 462,000 tons, and the production of ternary cathode materials increased by 8% year - on - year to 420,000 tons [62]. - **Raw Materials**: From January to July, Indonesia's MHP production increased by 57% year - on - year to 243,000 tons, while high - grade nickel matte production decreased by 39% year - on - year to 98,000 tons [64]. 3.2.6 Supply - Demand Balance - In July, the shortage of primary nickel narrowed, while pure nickel remained in surplus [65].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the given content Group 2: Report's Core Views - In the short - term, Shanghai nickel may continue its weak and volatile trend. In the long - term, the oversupply pattern of refined nickel remains unchanged, with continuous release of nickel intermediate product capacity and loosening of mine - end prices, limiting the upside space of nickel prices [3] - In the short - term, stainless steel may also continue its weak and volatile trend. In the long - term, the increase in the domestic trade benchmark price of Indonesian nickel ore and the upward shift of stainless steel cost support may limit the decline, but the global oversupply pattern remains unchanged, making it difficult for stainless steel prices to break through [5] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Nickel Variety Market Analysis - On August 14, 2025, the main contract 2509 of Shanghai nickel opened at 122,700 yuan/ton and closed at 121,200 yuan/ton, down 1.26% from the previous trading day's close. The trading volume was 102,257 lots, and the open interest was 66,437 lots. Night - trading showed limited capital participation and a wait - and - see attitude. Day - trading saw short - position funds actively increasing positions, and market sentiment turned pessimistic [1] - The nickel ore market remained calm, with prices stable. Sea freight slightly increased due to weather and shipping capacity. In the Philippines, mines were reluctant to lower prices. In Indonesia, the August (Phase II) domestic trade benchmark price of nickel ore was expected to drop slightly, and some iron plants were bearish on the premium [2] - Jinchuan Group's sales price in the Shanghai market was 124,700 yuan/ton, down 200 yuan/ton from the previous day. Spot trading of refined nickel improved slightly, with changes in premiums for different types of nickel [2] Strategy - Short - term: Shanghai nickel may continue its weak and volatile trend. Long - term: The oversupply pattern of refined nickel remains unchanged, and the upside space of nickel prices is limited. Unilateral strategy: mainly range - bound operation; no strategies for inter - period, cross - variety, spot - futures, and options [3] Stainless Steel Variety Market Analysis - On August 14, 2025, the main contract 2510 of stainless steel opened at 13,175 yuan/ton and closed at 13,025 yuan/ton. The trading volume was 160,562 lots, and the open interest was 135,237 lots. Night - trading showed limited capital participation and a wait - and - see attitude. Day - trading saw short - position funds actively increasing positions, and market sentiment turned pessimistic [3][4] - After the stainless steel futures price rose earlier in the week, the spot price increased, but downstream acceptance was poor. As the futures price fell, the spot price also dropped due to the pressure of sales [4] Strategy - Short - term: Stainless steel may continue its weak and volatile trend. Long - term: The increase in the domestic trade benchmark price of Indonesian nickel ore and the upward shift of cost support may limit the decline, but the global oversupply pattern remains unchanged, and prices are difficult to break through. Unilateral strategy: neutral; no strategies for inter - period, cross - variety, spot - futures, and options [5]

Core Insights - The trade relationship between Indonesia and China is strengthening, with trade volume reaching $70.8 billion in the first half of 2025, a year-on-year increase of 15.5% [1] - Indonesia's exports to China amounted to $30.5 billion, growing by 8.9%, driven by nickel, steel, and agricultural products [1] - Imports from China totaled $40.2 billion, marking a 21% increase, primarily in vehicles, electronic equipment, and machinery [1] Trade Performance - Indonesia's exports to China accounted for 22.5% of the country's total exports in the first half of 2025 [2] - The share of imports from China reached 34.7% of Indonesia's total imports during the same period [2] Sector Contributions - Significant growth in specific exports: rubber exports surged by 182%, coffee by 90%, cocoa by 88%, and fruits by 10% [1] - The increase in nickel and steel exports to China is closely linked to China's rising demand for materials needed for electric vehicles and infrastructure development [1]

Group 1: Report Investment Ratings - There is no information about the report's industry investment rating provided in the documents. Group 2: Core Views - Short - term nickel prices will mainly show a volatile trend, being more affected by macro - emotions. However, the pattern of oversupply remains unchanged, and the contradiction between the release of Indonesian production capacity and weak stainless steel demand is still unresolved, so nickel prices are under pressure in the medium term [3]. - Under the dual pressure of abundant nickel ore supply from Indonesia and South Korea's anti - dumping policy, stainless steel is under medium - term pressure. It is recommended to pay attention to the implementation of domestic steel mill production cuts in September and the marginal improvement signals of new energy vehicle demand [6]. Group 3: Nickel Variety Market Analysis Futures - On August 13, 2025, the main contract 2509 of Shanghai nickel opened at 122,520 yuan/ton and closed at 122,340 yuan/ton, a change of - 0.24% from the previous trading day's close. The night - session volume was 96,355 lots, and the day - session volume was 89,510 lots. The position decreased from 73,889 lots at night to 70,930 lots during the day, indicating continuous capital outflow [2]. Nickel Ore - The nickel ore market remained calm with stable prices. Philippine mines had a strong attitude of holding up prices, and downstream iron plants' loss narrowed, so their pressure on raw material procurement prices eased. In Indonesia, the August (Phase I) domestic trade benchmark price increased by 0.2 - 0.3 dollars, and the August (Phase I) premium was mainly +24, unchanged from the previous period [3]. Spot - Jinchuan Group's sales price in the Shanghai market was 124,900 yuan/ton, up 100 yuan/ton from the previous trading day, and the upward momentum continued to slow down. Downstream enterprises still had strong waiting - and - seeing sentiment, and the overall spot trading of refined nickel was average [3]. Group 4: Nickel Variety Strategy - Unilateral: mainly conduct range operations; Cross - period: no operation; Cross - variety: no operation; Spot - futures: no operation; Options: no operation [3] Group 5: Stainless Steel Variety Market Analysis Futures - On August 13, 2025, the main contract 2509 of stainless steel opened at 13,215 yuan/ton and closed at 13,130 yuan/ton. The night - session volume was 130,400 lots, and the day - session volume was 160,300 lots. The position increased from 143,700 lots at night to 144,200 lots during the day, indicating that short - sellers dominated [4][5]. Spot - In the morning, due to weak trading and falling futures prices, many sellers lowered their quotes to promote transactions. The overall inquiry atmosphere decreased compared with before, but as the traditional peak season approached, most downstream enterprises were still bullish on the future. The stainless steel prices in Wuxi and Foshan markets were both 13,300 yuan/ton [5]. Group 6: Stainless Steel Variety Strategy - Unilateral: neutral; Cross - period: no operation; Cross - variety: no operation; Spot - futures: no operation; Options: no operation [6]

Group 1 - Nickel prices are experiencing a sideways trend, with the main contract down by 0.24% to 122,340 yuan/ton, influenced by a moderate overall inflation in the US and a 95% probability of interest rate cuts in September [1] - The nickel ore market remains stable, with strong pricing sentiment from Philippine mines, while Indonesian primary nickel output remains high, leading to a continued decline in nickel ore prices, although they are still at relatively high levels [1] - Demand from the downstream nickel iron sector is improving, with steel mills reducing losses, which has slightly eased the pressure on raw material pricing [1] Group 2 - The overall supply of nickel products is high, with signs of production slowdown in Indonesian smelters, but the supply remains elevated [2] - Domestic demand for nickel has significantly increased in the first half of the year, yet the supply-demand balance remains in surplus, indicating limited contradictions in nickel's supply and demand [2] - Short-term focus should be on changes in the macroeconomic environment, while medium-term attention should be on the potential tightening of Indonesian nickel ore supply [2]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Report's Core View - For the nickel variety, the supply surplus pattern of refined nickel remains unchanged, with continuous release of nickel intermediate product capacity and loosening of mine - end prices. However, short - term macro sentiment has pushed up nickel prices. For the stainless steel variety, the pressure of nickel - iron surplus still exists, and the retail price of ferro - chrome is strongly stable. The social inventory of stainless steel has been decreasing. Recent continuous stimulation from macro - policy news has boosted the stainless steel market, and it is expected that the stainless steel price will maintain a range - bound and slightly stronger operation in the near future [1][3][5] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Nickel Variety - **Market Analysis** - **Futures**: On August 11, 2025, the main contract 2509 of Shanghai nickel opened at 121,000 yuan/ton and closed at 122,130 yuan/ton, a 0.80% change from the previous trading day's close. The trading volume was 112,549 lots, and the open interest was 77,193 lots. The night session opened slightly lower, then rose slightly, fell back after reaching a high, and oscillated slightly. The day session continued to rise and stood firm at the high of 122,000 yuan in the afternoon, closing with a positive line. The trading volume increased compared with the previous trading day, and the open interest decreased [1] - **Nickel Ore**: In the Philippines, there was sporadic rainfall across the country, but the overall weather and sea conditions were better than the previous week. It is expected that in the third quarter, the impact of precipitation in the main producing areas will be limited, the shipping volume will remain at a high level, and the port arrival volume of ore will continue to increase with sufficient supply. Mines are mostly in the stage of fulfilling contracts and loading ships. In Indonesia, the weather has improved, the nickel ore supply is loose, and the price has slightly increased. The domestic trade benchmark price in August (Phase I) increased by 0.2 - 0.3 US dollars, and the domestic trade premium was mainly +24 in August (Phase I), unchanged from the previous period, with a range of +23 - 25 [1] - **Spot**: Jinchuan Group's sales price in the Shanghai market was 124,200 yuan/ton, an increase of 1,100 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The spot transaction of refined nickel was generally average. The premium of Jinchuan nickel changed by - 50 yuan/ton to 2,200 yuan/ton, the premium of imported nickel changed by 0 yuan/ton to 350 yuan/ton, and the premium of nickel beans was 2,450 yuan/ton. The previous trading day's Shanghai nickel warrant volume was 20,723 (102.0) tons, and the LME nickel inventory was 211,296 (- 936) tons [2] - **Strategy** - Unilateral: Mainly conduct range operations - Others: No suggestions for inter - period, cross - variety, spot - futures, and options operations [3] Stainless Steel Variety - **Market Analysis** - **Futures**: On August 11, 2025, the main contract 2510 of stainless steel opened at 13,045 yuan/ton and closed at 13,225 yuan/ton. The trading volume was 202,613 lots, and the open interest was 135,260 lots. The night session oscillated strongly, and the day session continued to rise, closing with a positive line. Both the trading volume and open interest increased significantly compared with the previous trading day [3] - **Spot**: Boosted by the sharp rise in the SS futures market, the confidence of spot traders to be bullish has been significantly enhanced, and the quotes have increased accordingly. Small - scale traders started to replenish stocks, and the daily orders were acceptable. However, affected by the rapid price increase, some agents temporarily stopped accepting futures orders. The price of stainless steel in the Wuxi market was 13,200 yuan/ton, and in the Foshan market was 13,200 yuan/ton. The premium of 304/2B was 100 - 300 yuan/ton. According to SMM data, the ex - factory tax - included average price of high - nickel pig iron changed by 0.50 yuan/nickel point to 919.0 yuan/nickel point [3] - **Strategy** - Unilateral: Neutral - Others: No suggestions for inter - period, cross - variety, spot - futures, and options operations [5]

Key Points - The core viewpoint of the report emphasizes the need to "break the internal competition" as highlighted by the General Secretary in July 2025, with a structured approach focusing on three dimensions: industry, enterprise, and government [4][6] - The report identifies the formation of effective price alliances as a significant international strategy to combat internal competition, characterized by public agreements on market share distribution, unified pricing, and supply limitations [4][12] - Notable examples of successful price alliances include OPEC and the iron ore price alliance, which provide valuable lessons for domestic policy [4][44] Group 1: Price Alliances - Price alliances are defined by their key features: public agreements for market share distribution, unified pricing, and supply restrictions [12] - The report discusses the historical context and evolution of OPEC, highlighting its ability to maintain price stability through coordinated production adjustments among member countries [22][38] - The iron ore price alliance is presented as a model for collective negotiation, demonstrating the importance of industry collaboration to enhance bargaining power [4][40] Group 2: International Examples - Countries like Argentina, Bolivia, and Chile are working towards establishing a "Lithium Triangle OPEC" to coordinate lithium production and pricing [44] - Indonesia has proposed a nickel group similar to OPEC, aiming to leverage its significant nickel reserves for better market positioning [46] - The report notes that Russia and Qatar have expressed interest in forming a natural gas output organization akin to OPEC, indicating a trend towards resource-based alliances [49] Group 3: Domestic Implications - The report suggests that China should establish industry alliances for key resources and manufacturing sectors, focusing on "quota + price limits" to secure pricing power and prevent market disruption [4][57] - It emphasizes the need for collective bargaining in industries like photovoltaics and new energy, advocating for a unified national approach to enhance negotiation strength [4][58] - The report outlines a strategic framework for managing key strategic resources, including refined export quotas and minimum price regulations to protect national interests [57]

Report Information - Report Name: Nickel Daily Report [1] - Date: August 12, 2025 [2] - Research Team: Nonferrous Metals Research Team [3] - Researchers: Yu Feifei, Zhang Ping, Peng Jinglin [3] Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core View - The long - term surplus pressure of primary nickel remains significant. Short - term price rebounds of industrial chain products are due to long - term low prices, and should be treated as short - term rebounds. After the macro - optimistic sentiment fades, prices are likely to continue to face pressure [7] Summary by Directory 1. Market Review and Operation Suggestions - On the 11th, Shanghai nickel strengthened again, with the main contract rising 0.8% to 122,130. The spot market had sufficient available supply, but the receiving sentiment was average. The average premium of Jinchuan No.1 nickel decreased by 50 to 2,200 yuan/ton, and the spot premium/discount quotation range of domestic mainstream brand electrowinning nickel was - 100 - 300 yuan/ton [7] - The precipitation in the main producing areas of the Philippines in the third quarter has limited impact, and shipments will remain at a high level. The approved quota of RKAB in Indonesia is as high as 310 million wet tons, with a strong expectation of increased nickel ore supply, and prices are under downward pressure, weakening the support at the ore end [7] - Due to the short - term high price of nickel ore, most Indonesian iron plants are still in a state of cost inversion. The NPI price continued to rise, with an average of 919 yuan/nickel point on the 11th. Large stainless steel enterprises are still waiting and have limited acceptance of high - priced raw materials [7] - Nickel salt prices rebounded due to the rigid replenishment of precursors and low inventories of nickel salt plants. On the 11th, it continued to rise by 10 to 27,450 yuan/ton [7] 2. Industry News - Indonesia's National Investment Management Agency Danantara is exploring investment opportunities in the nickel downstream industry and considering acquiring the PT Gunbuster Nickel Industry (GNI) smelter. It plans to prepare an investment plan of over $20 billion and provide about $60 million in medium - term financing through a syndicated loan [8][10] - Bulgaria officially launched the largest operating battery energy storage system in the EU, with a capacity of 124 MW/496.2 MWh [9] - A research team in Turkey developed a TOPCon solar cell using nickel contact with almost no silver, which can significantly reduce production costs while maintaining high performance [9] - Renewable energy storage company Apatura obtained planning permission for a 100 - MW battery energy storage system project in Scotland, increasing its approved total energy storage capacity to over 1.6 GW [9]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No specific industry investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Views - Nickel: The supporting logic at the mine end is weakening, and the logic at the smelting end restricts elasticity [2][4]. - Stainless steel: The game between bulls and bears intensifies, and steel prices fluctuate [2][4]. - Lithium carbonate: It is running strongly [2][9]. - Industrial silicon: The night - trading price of coking coal has risen. Attention should be paid to the boost of market sentiment [2][13]. - Polysilicon: Attention should be paid to market information disturbances [2][13]. 3. Summaries by Related Catalogs Nickel and Stainless Steel - **Fundamental Data**: For nickel, the closing price of the Shanghai nickel main contract was 122,130, with a series of changes compared to previous periods. For stainless steel, the closing price of the main contract was 13,225, also showing different changes over time. There were also detailed data on production, industry chain, and relevant prices such as high - nickel pig iron, nickel plate - high - nickel iron spread, etc. [4] - **Macro and Industry News**: There were multiple news items, including Ontario's potential halt of nickel exports to the US, the trial production of the Indonesian CNI nickel - iron project, environmental violations in the IMIP in Indonesia, plans to shorten the mining quota period in Indonesia, changes in the RKAB production plan, production suspension in some Indonesian nickel - iron smelting industrial parks, and a steel mill's production reduction in Shandong [4][5][6][7] - **Trend Intensity**: The trend intensity of nickel is 0, and that of stainless steel is also 0 [8] Lithium Carbonate - **Fundamental Data**: Data on the closing price, trading volume, and open interest of the 2509 and 2511 contracts were provided, as well as information on the basis, raw materials, and product prices in the lithium carbonate industry chain [10] - **Macro and Industry News**: The SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate index price increased. CATL suspended mining operations due to an expired mining license and is applying for renewal. The retail penetration rate of new energy vehicles in July was 54.0%, with changes in the market shares of different brands [11][12] - **Trend Intensity**: The trend intensity of lithium carbonate is 1 [12] Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon - **Fundamental Data**: Information on the closing price, trading volume, and open interest of the Si2511 and PS2511 contracts was given, along with data on the basis, prices, profits, and inventories of industrial silicon and polysilicon, as well as raw material costs [13] - **Macro and Industry News**: The first - phase project of the Gansu Heihe Silicon - based New Material Comprehensive Utilization Project is in the final construction stage, with a total investment of 2.063 billion yuan and planned production capacities of industrial silicon and high - purity ferrosilicon [13][15] - **Trend Intensity**: The trend intensity of industrial silicon is 0, and that of polysilicon is 1 [15]