Group 1: Game Industry Transformation - The gaming industry is evolving from being primarily an entertainment product to a flexible tool that drives digital transformation in traditional sectors like healthcare, education, and manufacturing [1] - The integration of gaming technology and design thinking is creating new growth opportunities and reshaping perceptions of the industry [1] Group 2: High-Quality Development in Gaming - China's gaming industry is transitioning to a new phase focused on "high-quality development," with projected market revenue reaching 350.79 billion yuan by 2025, reflecting a year-on-year growth rate of 7.68% [2] - The "game economy" is emerging as a vast ecosystem with a market size exceeding 1.2 trillion yuan, driven by technological innovations and cultural content [2] - The industry is shifting from "product export" to "cultural export," emphasizing long-term value creation [2] Group 3: Energy Sector Developments - The central economic work conference highlighted the need for a green transition in energy, with a focus on renewable energy sources and carbon reduction [5] - Companies in the energy sector are expected to play a significant role in the construction of a new energy system, particularly in areas like storage, wind power, and solar energy [5] Group 4: Public Fundraising Trends - The public fund issuance market has seen a significant shift, with 1,468 new funds launched in 2025, marking a four-year high, while total fundraising remains stable compared to the past two years [8] - This trend indicates a move towards a more diversified and innovative approach in the equity fund sector [8] Group 5: Mergers and Acquisitions in State-Owned Enterprises - There have been 1,001 merger and acquisition cases involving state-owned companies in the A-share market this year, indicating a steady growth trend [9] - The focus of these transactions is on core business areas, with an emphasis on shedding non-core assets and accelerating investments in strategic emerging industries like semiconductors and renewable energy [9] Group 6: Platinum Market Dynamics - Platinum prices have surged over 110% this year, significantly outpacing gold's 65% increase, driven by changes in supply and demand dynamics [10] - The highest recorded price for platinum reached $1,987 per ounce, the highest since July 2008 [10] Group 7: AI and State-Owned Enterprises - The State-owned Assets Supervision and Administration Commission plans to deepen the "AI+" initiative during the 14th Five-Year Plan, focusing on overcoming technological bottlenecks and enhancing digital transformation [11] - Emphasis will be placed on traditional industry upgrades and the development of core technologies [11]

Economic Growth - The U.S. economy is forecasted to show strong growth in the third quarter, with median annualized growth expected at 3.2%, attributed to a significant pullback in imports following earlier increases due to tariffs [1][12] Investor Sentiment - Investor sentiment has reached extreme bullish levels at 8.5, which historically precedes market pullbacks, with global equities typically declining a median of 2.7% over the following two months [2][3][13] - The Fund Manager Survey indicates the most bullish sentiment in 3.5 years, driven by expectations of rate, tariff, and tax cuts [3][13] Market Performance - S&P 500 futures increased by 0.2% and Nasdaq futures rose by 0.3%, reflecting a prevailing fear of missing out among investors [6][13] - Japan's Nikkei index rose by 1.5%, benefiting from a decline in the yen, which is expected to enhance export earnings for Japanese companies [7][13] Currency Movements - The yen reached record lows against the euro and Swiss franc, prompting concerns from Japan's currency officials about excessive declines and potential intervention [8][13] - The dollar was steady against a basket of currencies, having gained 0.3% recently, with a potential target of 158.00 for further upward movement [9][13] Equity Inflows - Equity markets experienced record inflows of $98 billion last week, primarily driven by U.S. equity funds, while Chinese equity funds saw significant inflows as well [10][13] Commodity Prices - Silver prices reached a new record at $67.48 per ounce, marking a year-to-date gain of nearly 134%, while gold rose to $4,362 per ounce [11][13] - Oil prices increased following U.S. actions against Venezuelan oil tankers, with Brent crude rising to $60.88 per barrel and U.S. crude to $56.89 per barrel [11][13]

Group 1 - The recent strong performance of the non-ferrous metal sector, particularly copper and precious metals, raises questions about whether this trend is a short-term speculation or the beginning of a long-term trend, driven by complex factors [1] - The core drivers for industrial metals like copper and aluminum are more closely tied to changes in economic cycles, while precious metals like gold are primarily influenced by global monetary factors and risk events [2] - The current market perceives "global liquidity easing expectations" as the main engine behind this rally, with the impact of the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts on non-ferrous commodities being variable [2] Group 2 - The green energy revolution and technological innovation are identified as the two core drivers of the current global economic growth transformation, with upstream raw materials related to these trends expected to gain solid and sustainable supply-demand support [3] - Concerns about global copper supply tightness are acknowledged, with short-term supply constraints due to insufficient capital expenditure and policy restrictions, but long-term price increases may trigger market self-adjustment [4] - Current valuations of copper-related stocks are considered to be within a historically reasonable range, indicating a rational market attitude towards positive changes in downstream demand [4]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the news is the strategic cooperation agreement signed between Hainan Rural Commercial Bank and China Gold Group, focusing on mutual benefits in gold and precious metal product sales, brand promotion, and cultural activities [2][3] - The agreement aims to maximize economic and social benefits through deep collaboration and resource sharing between the two entities [2] - Hainan Rural Commercial Bank's chairman, Li Xiaogang, emphasized that the partnership will provide solid resource support and professional assurance for the bank's development in the precious metals business [2] Group 2 - The cooperation is seen as a significant step in the context of Hainan's Free Trade Port initiative, with both parties aiming to leverage policy advantages for deeper collaboration [3] - The signing marks a new phase of standardized and long-term development in their partnership, focusing on product innovation, channel sharing, and service upgrades [3] - The collaboration is positioned as a strong alliance of state-owned financial forces, contributing to the service of national strategies and the real economy [2][3]

--美联储主席候选人之争进入白热化阶段 夏莹莹（投资咨询证号：Z0016569） 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可【2011】1290号 2025年12月21日 第一章 核心矛盾及策略建议 1.1核心矛盾 贵金属周报 上周贵金属价格继续偏强运行，伦敦现货黄金接近10月份历史高位4380附近，伦敦现货白银则续刷历史新高 至67附近，从K线技术形态看，短期仍未出现拐头信号。周二后美联储降息预期略有回升，主要非农与CPI就 业数据补发，显示美经济下行压力与通胀缓和。另外，上周美联储主席候选人之争继续发酵，集中在哈塞 特、沃什和沃勒之间，不同候选人与特朗普政府的立场关联度依次减弱，这也就意味着对于美联储独立性的 维护能力依次增强，但总体而言，三位候选人皆属于宽货币的鸽派支持者。 11月底以来，白银表现远强于黄金，金银比进一步大幅回落。主要原因在于白银低供给弹性与低库存的现 实，叠加COMEX 2512合约大量交割、白银工业需求刚性、ETF投资需求持续流入（但上周iShares白银ETF 周度流出36.7吨）、绿色新能源与数字AI经济对白银需求的增长预期，以及美国对白银的232矿产调查结果不 确定性引发的进口关税担忧等多重因 ...

北京时间20日晚间，仍在交易的加密货币集体拉升，纷纷飘红，21日上午又集体跳水。CoinGlass 数据显示， 截至发稿，近24小时内，加密货币共有超6.7万人爆仓。 事实上，美股已连涨2天，随着节日临近，多位市场人士对行情抱有期待。 究其原因，有分析师表示，经济数据巩固了人们对美联储将采取降息策略的预期。 据新华社，美国 总统 特朗普 17日晚在对全国发表电视讲话时表示，下一任美联储 主席 提名人选 即将揭晓，且这名候选人会支持"大幅"降低利率。 图片来源：CoinGlass "我即将宣布我们的下一任美联储 主席 。" 特朗普 说，"这个人支持大幅降低利率，抵押还款会进 一步下降。" 美国联邦储备委员会10日宣布降息，但 特朗普 吐槽降息幅度"过小"，称"美国的利率就该是全球 最低的"。 据多家媒体报道， 特朗普 目前仍在对候选人进行考察，他在17日面试了美联储理事克里斯托弗· 沃勒。 12日， 特朗普 在接受《华尔街日报》采访时说，美联储前理事凯文·沃什是下一任美联储 主席 职 位的头号候选人，白宫国家经济委员会主任凯文·哈西特也很出色。 特朗普 说，希望联邦基金利率 一年后被降至"1%甚至更低"，以帮助 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the industry [8] Core Views - Precious Metals: Mixed U.S. employment data supports expectations for interest rate cuts, which in turn supports rising gold prices [3][12] - Industrial Metals: Domestic copper prices are fluctuating at high levels, while aluminum prices are declining [4][14] - New Energy Metals: Carbonate lithium prices are significantly rising, with intense competition at high levels [5][19] - Other Minor Metals: Rare earth prices are declining, while tungsten prices increased by 15.3% over the week [5][24] Summary by Sections Precious Metals - U.S. non-farm payrolls increased by 64,000 in November, exceeding expectations of 50,000, but the unemployment rate rose to 4.6%, the highest in over four years, reinforcing market expectations for further interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve [3][13] - The S&P Global U.S. Composite PMI for December fell to 53.0, the lowest since June, indicating weakened economic momentum [3][13] - Key stocks to watch include Zhaojin Mining, Zijin Mining, and others in both A-shares and H-shares [3][13] Industrial Metals - Copper prices are stabilizing due to unexpected increases in U.S. unemployment rates, which bolster expectations for interest rate cuts [4][15] - The price of copper reached 93,200 CNY/ton, up 27% year-to-date, driven by macroeconomic factors and supply constraints [4][17] - Aluminum prices are expected to remain under pressure due to seasonal demand fluctuations, but long-term demand from new energy sectors is anticipated to support prices [4][18] New Energy Metals - Carbonate lithium prices have surged, with the price reaching 111,400 CNY/ton as of December 19, reflecting a significant increase from earlier in the year [5][23] - The demand for lithium remains strong, particularly in the electric vehicle and energy storage sectors, despite some price resistance from downstream buyers [5][20] - Key stocks to consider include Ganfeng Lithium, Yahua Industrial, and others [5][23] Other Minor Metals - Rare earth prices are on a downward trend, with prices for praseodymium and neodymium decreasing [5][24] - Tungsten prices have seen a notable increase of 15.3% over the week, indicating a strong market response [5][24] - Suggested stocks include Hunan Gold, Zhongjin Lingnan, and others in the tungsten and rare earth sectors [5][24]

Core Insights - Iridium, a rare white metal, has maintained a high price of 800,000 RMB per kilogram, surpassing gold, due to its unique properties and scarcity [1] Group 1: Scarcity - Iridium is one of the rarest elements in the Earth's crust, with an annual global production of only about 8 tons, which is one-third of gold production [1] - It is primarily found in platinum or nickel ores, with independent deposits being extremely rare, contributing to its high value [1] Group 2: Mining and Refining - The extraction and refining of iridium are complex, requiring the processing of hundreds of tons of ore to obtain just one kilogram of iridium [2] - The high difficulty of separation and purification techniques, such as chemical dissolution and high-temperature smelting, further increases costs [2] Group 3: Irreplaceable Applications - Iridium has unique physical and chemical properties, including a melting point exceeding 2400°C and strong corrosion resistance, making it indispensable in various high-end applications [3][4][5] - It is used in critical industrial components, high-precision lasers, cosmic ray detectors, and as a strengthening agent in platinum for high-performance alloys [3][4][5] Group 4: Market Supply and Demand - The iridium market, while small, has a concentrated demand in high-tech and high-end manufacturing sectors, characterized by rigid demand [6] - Supply is highly concentrated, with South Africa and Russia being the primary producers, creating a fragile balance between scarce supply and stable demand, which helps maintain high prices [6] Group 5: Future Outlook - Demand for iridium is expected to steadily increase with the development of aerospace, new energy, and precision medical industries [7] - The discovery of new deposits is rare, and while recycling technology is improving, it remains limited in scale, ensuring iridium's position as a "price king" due to its scarcity and irreplaceability [7]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is maintained at "Outperform the Market" [5] Core Views - The report highlights a potential new round of copper price increases due to the long-term processing fee for copper mines being set at $0 per ton, which raises expectations for reduced smelting output [1] - The report maintains a positive outlook on various metals including gold, silver, copper, aluminum, tin, rare earths, antimony, lithium, cobalt, tantalum, and uranium [1] Summary by Sections Non-Ferrous Metals - Copper: The LME copper price closed at $11,870.5 per ton, up 1.58% week-on-week, while SHFE copper closed at 93,000 yuan per ton, down 0.61% week-on-week. The processing fee for copper concentrate for 2026 was set at $0 per ton, leading to expectations of price elasticity under supply constraints [2][3] - Aluminum: LME aluminum closed at $2,955.5 per ton, up 2.80% week-on-week, and SHFE aluminum closed at 22,120 yuan per ton, up 0.32% week-on-week. The report notes a slight increase in domestic production capacity and improved logistics in Xinjiang, while also highlighting the need to monitor inventory levels as demand transitions to a weaker seasonal phase [3] - Tin: As of December 19, the SHFE tin main contract was at 343,040 yuan per ton, up 3.88% week-on-week. Supply risks from conflict-affected regions have tightened raw material availability, while domestic inventory is increasing due to high prices and subdued demand [9] Precious Metals - Gold and Silver: COMEX gold and silver closed at $4,354.0 and $66.8 per ounce, respectively, with increases of 1.25% and 8.85% week-on-week. The report indicates a long-term bullish trend for gold prices driven by central bank and ETF accumulation [2] Strategic Metals - Rare Earths: As of December 19, prices for praseodymium and terbium oxides were 576,000 and 607,500 yuan per ton, respectively. The report notes strict adjustments in rare earth smelting due to regulatory controls, with potential for price increases if export orders recover significantly [10] - Cobalt: The price of cobalt is around 410,000 yuan per ton, with a tight supply of raw materials. The report anticipates continued upward pressure on cobalt prices due to supply constraints [11]

市场里有两条平行线——一个是上行空间的上限，一个是支撑的下限，如果两条线之间有足够空间，那就是想象的自由场，如果没有空 间，那就收起幻想另觅出路。 黄金会不会再涨，是技术问题，还是心理问题，是市场问题，还是政治问题，没人能把答案提前写好，但我们看见的，是一条可能性正 被放大的轨迹。 投资策略上要有两件事，一是把多头作为主线，回撤寻找支撑做多，二是高位见好就收，这很简单，但做起来不容易，因为人性喜欢等 待也害怕错过，所以对于想在数据前追高的人，要慎重，如果是长线持有者，就耐心等，要有耐心，因为错过一时不等于错过一世。 美联储继续降息，流动性释放是长期背景，外部不确定性是放大器，实业不回流则黄金得以为王，这不是空穴来风，而是逻辑推演的结 果，贸易战不止，资金难回实体，黄金就不会轻易回落。 美联储降息周期已经开始，这是宏观面不可逆的现实，美元的利率下行意味着市场流动性增加，问题在于这笔钱流向何处，是回到实 体，还是游走于金融资产。 资金去哪，价格就往哪走，这是最简单的因果，黄金这个"蓄水池"吸引了大量资金，短期内这种吸引力难以被根本性逆转。 如果外部环境不佳，贸易摩擦不断，资金回流实体的可能性就小，黄金继续上涨反倒 ...