Group 1: Market Overview - The market experienced a volatile upward trend with a total trading volume of 2.37 trillion yuan, an increase of 44.3 billion yuan compared to the previous trading day [1] - Various sectors showed rapid rotation, with gaming, AI applications, and controllable nuclear fusion leading in gains, while port shipping, precious metals, and oil and gas sectors faced declines [1] Group 2: Monetary Policy and Fund Management - The People's Bank of China plans to support foreign institutional investors in engaging in bond repurchase transactions in the Chinese bond market to enhance the efficiency of RMB bonds [1] - The total scale of public funds has surpassed 36 trillion yuan, marking the fifth historical high this year, with significant growth in stock and mixed funds [1] Group 3: Industry Insights - The copper smelting industry is expected to implement strict measures to control capacity expansion, addressing the "involution" issue highlighted by the China Nonferrous Metals Industry Association [2] - The focus on optimizing capacity in the copper smelting sector includes phasing out outdated capacities and enhancing efficiency through advanced smelting technologies [2] - The copper industry is anticipated to return to profitability, with expectations for improved capacity layout and operational efficiency due to ongoing state-owned enterprise reforms [2] Group 4: Investment Trends - The market is currently characterized by a divergence in performance among major indices, with the ChiNext index reaching a multi-year high while the Shanghai Composite Index remains relatively weak [3] - Investment focus is advised to remain on popular sectors, particularly in technology and new energy, with strong performance in the AI industry chain, semiconductors, and new energy core stocks [3]

Core Viewpoint - China Dajie Nonferrous Metals (00661) saw a significant intraday increase of over 27%, closing up 25.71% at HKD 0.088, with a trading volume of HKD 11.1895 million [1] Industry Summary - The third council meeting of the Copper Industry Branch of the China Nonferrous Metals Industry Association was held in Xiong'an New Area, Hebei, where representatives from major companies discussed operational conditions, copper concentrate processing fees, and challenges faced by enterprises [1] - The Copper Industry Branch expressed strong opposition to "involution" competition within the copper smelting industry [1] Company Insights - According to a report by Everbright Securities in July, implementing "anti-involution" policies in the copper industry may limit new copper smelting capacity and accelerate the exit of small smelting capacities, which could benefit downstream copper consumption driven by growth in renewable energy and grid upgrades [1] - The report suggests that if growth stabilization plans in the copper industry impose restrictions on smelting capacity, the value of smelting assets may be re-evaluated, highlighting companies with low copper self-sufficiency but large smelting capacities as potential investment opportunities [1]

智通财经APP获悉，中国大冶有色金属(00661)盘中涨超27%，截至发稿，涨25.71%，报0.088港元，成 交额1118.95万港元。 消息面上，中国有色金属工业协会铜业分会第三届理事会第五次会议在河北雄安新区召开。会上，金川 集团、江铜集团、铜陵有色、中国铜业、大冶有色、五矿有色、紫金矿业等理事单位代表围绕企业运行 情况、铜精矿加工费、铜业分会下一步工作、企业存在的困难和相关建议进行研讨交流。中国有色金属 工业协会铜业分会表示坚决反对铜冶炼行业"内卷式"竞争。 光大证券今年7月发布研报称，若在铜行业推行"反内卷"相关政策，或对新增铜冶炼产能做出限制、加 速中小冶炼产能退出，而铜下游消费仍会受益于新能源、电网改造等持续增长，冶炼产能过剩未来有望 缓解，冶炼企业后续盈利有望迎来改善。该行指出，若铜行业相关稳增长方案对冶炼产能做出限制，冶 炼资产价值有望重估，关注铜矿自给率较低而冶炼产能大的公司。 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - There is no information provided regarding the report industry investment rating in the given content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The US GDP in the second quarter had an annualized quarterly growth rate of 3.8%, a significant increase from the revised value of 3.3%, reaching the fastest growth rate in nearly two years, mainly due to unexpectedly strong consumer spending and a decline in imports. The final value of the core PCE price index was raised from 2.5% to 2.6% [2]. - Russia plans to implement a diesel export ban on resellers until the end of the year and extend the export ban on gasoline resellers and producers until the end of the year, except for supplies under inter - governmental agreements [2]. - As of the week ending September 25, the production of rebar increased after a decline, the factory inventory decreased for three consecutive weeks, the apparent demand increased for two consecutive weeks, and the social inventory decreased for two consecutive weeks. Rebar production was 206.46 million tons, an increase of 0.01 million tons from the previous week; the apparent demand for rebar was 220.44 million tons, an increase of 10.41 million tons from the previous week, with a growth rate of 4.96% [2]. - Starting from the settlement on September 29, 2025, the daily price limit range for industrial silicon futures contracts will be adjusted to 10%, for polysilicon futures contracts to 11%, and for lithium carbonate futures contracts to 10%. The margin standard for speculative trading will be adjusted to 12%, and for hedging trading to 11% [2]. - The "involution - style" competition in the copper smelting industry has led to continuously low processing fees for copper concentrates, which is the most prominent problem in the industry. Industry enterprises should oppose this kind of competition [3]. 3. Summaries by Related Catalogs Hot News - US second - quarter GDP annualized quarterly growth rate was 3.8%, core PCE price index final value was raised from 2.5% to 2.6% [2]. - Russia plans diesel and gasoline export bans until the end of the year [2]. - Rebar production increased, factory inventory decreased, apparent demand increased, and social inventory decreased in the week ending September 25 [2]. - Adjustments to the daily price limit range and margin standards for industrial silicon, polysilicon, and lithium carbonate futures contracts from September 29, 2025 [2]. - The copper smelting industry's "involution - style" competition problem was discussed at a meeting, and enterprises were urged to oppose it [3]. Plate Performance - Key focus: Urea, Shanghai Copper, Silver, Asphalt, PVC [4]. - Night - session performance: Non - metallic building materials (2.78%), Precious metals (31.98%), Oilseeds and oils (10.17%), Soft commodities (2.41%), Non - ferrous metals (20.18%), Coal, coke, and steel (13.66%), Energy (2.95%), Chemicals (11.55%), Grains (1.06%), Agricultural and sideline products (3.26%) [4]. Plate Position - Information about the position changes of commodity futures plates in the past five days is presented, but specific change values are not clearly summarized here due to the complex data form [5]. Performance of Major Asset Classes - **Equities**: Shanghai Composite Index had a daily change of - 0.01%, monthly change of - 0.12%, and annual change of 14.96%; S&P 500 had a daily change of - 0.50%, monthly change of 2.75%, and annual change of 12.86%; and other equity indices had corresponding changes [7]. - **Fixed - income**: 10 - year Treasury bond futures had a daily change of - 0.01%, monthly change of - 0.19%, and annual change of - 1.21%; 5 - year Treasury bond futures had a monthly change of 0.05% and an annual change of - 0.92%; 2 - year Treasury bond futures had a monthly change of - 0.09% and an annual change of - 0.63% [7]. - **Commodities**: CRB Commodity Index had a monthly change of - 0.82% and an annual change of 1.06%; WTI crude oil had a daily change of 0.38%, monthly change of 1.06%, and annual change of - 10.00%; London spot gold had a daily change of 0.34%, monthly change of 8.38%, and annual change of 42.36% [7]. - **Others**: US Dollar Index had a daily change of 0.61%, monthly change of 0.02%, and annual change of - 9.79%; CBOE Volatility Index had a monthly change of 8.33% and an annual change of - 4.09% [7].

Core Viewpoint - The A-share market experienced slight fluctuations as the holiday approached, with the non-ferrous metal sector showing initial gains before narrowing. The Non-Ferrous 50 ETF (159652) saw significant inflows, indicating strong investor interest in this sector [1][3]. Group 1: Market Performance - The Non-Ferrous 50 ETF (159652) initially rose over 2%, with net subscriptions reaching 15 million units, translating to over 20 million yuan in net inflows by 10:15 AM [1]. - The index components of the Non-Ferrous 50 ETF showed mixed performance, with the copper sector leading gains, particularly Jiangxi Copper, which rose over 4% [3]. Group 2: Industry Insights - The Non-Ferrous 50 ETF (159652) covers a broad range of metals, with copper accounting for 30% of its composition, making it a leading index in terms of copper and gold content [4]. - The China Nonferrous Metals Industry Association is addressing the "involution" competition in copper smelting, proposing measures to control capacity expansion [7]. - Global refined copper consumption is projected at 28.65 million tons in 2024, with China alone consuming 17 million tons, highlighting the country's dominant position in the market [8]. Group 3: Economic Factors - The industrial metal prices are influenced by both financial and commodity attributes, with the Federal Reserve's recent interest rate cuts expected to strengthen copper prices [10]. - The Federal Reserve's recent 25 basis point rate cut marks the beginning of a new easing cycle, which is anticipated to support gold prices in the long term [11]. - The current environment presents significant investment opportunities in non-ferrous metals, driven by supply-side policies, demand recovery, and global economic trends [11].

新能源及有色金属日报 | 2025-09-26 冶炼及进口方面，9月24日，中国有色金属工业协会铜业分会第三届理事会第五次会议在河北雄安新区召开。铜冶 炼行业"内卷式"竞争导致铜精矿加工费持续低位的问题是此次会议中代表反馈最集中的问题，也是行业当下最突 出的问题。中国有色金属工业协会党委常委、副会长陈学森在总结讲话中强调，铜冶炼行业"内卷式"竞争对行业 影响大，损害了国家和行业利益，与高质量发展导向存在偏差，铜行业企业要坚决反对铜冶炼行业"内卷式"竞争。 与此前的反内卷不同，此次反内卷更多针对于精铜冶炼企业，但由于国内冶炼企业多为大型国企，因此具体反内 卷措施如果落实仍有待观察。 反内卷指向冶炼企业 但具体政策落实则仍有待观察 市场要闻与重要数据 期货行情： 2025-09-25，沪铜主力合约开于 81000元/吨，收于 82710元/吨，较前一交易日收盘3.44%，昨日夜盘沪铜主力合约 开于 82290元/吨，收于 82380 元/吨，较昨日午后收盘下跌0.40%。 现货情况： 据 SMM 讯，昨日电解铜现货转为贴水，SMM1#铜均价82130-82880元/吨，主力合约贴水30元/吨（跌25元）。沪 铜早 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - **Bullish Outlook**: Crude oil, methanol, gold, silver, copper, iron ore, corn, lithium carbonate [6] - **Bearish Outlook**: Zinc, cotton, apple, soybean meal, rapeseed meal, stock index (IH, IF, IC, IM) [6] 2. Core Views of the Report - The scale of China's public - offering funds has exceeded 36 trillion yuan, with bond funds slightly decreasing due to the stock - bond seesaw effect. The US GDP growth rate in Q2 was revised up, and the PCE price index indicated persistent inflation. The market's expectation of a rate cut in October has cooled [1]. - For the stock index, September was more volatile, in a high - level consolidation phase after continuous growth. The long - term strategic allocation period of the Chinese capital market has just begun. The CSI 500 and CSI 1000 are more offensive, while the SSE 50 and SSE 300 are more defensive [2][12]. - The SC crude oil rose slightly at night. Russia will ban diesel exports and extend the gasoline export ban. The global decline rate of oil and gas field production has accelerated. Future OPEC production increase should be monitored [3][14]. - The glass futures continued to rebound, and the supply - demand situation was slowly improving. The inventory of glass and soda ash was being digested. Attention should be paid to autumn consumption and policy changes [4][18]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Main News of the Day 3.1.1 International News - The US GDP in Q2 was revised up to an annualized quarter - on - quarter growth of 3.8%, and the core PCE price index was revised up to 2.6% [7]. 3.1.2 Domestic News - The Ministry of Commerce included three US entities in the export control list and three Taiwan - related US entities in the unreliable entity list [8]. 3.1.3 Industry News - The China Non - Ferrous Metals Industry Association proposed measures to control the expansion of copper smelting capacity, and relevant departments are studying regulatory measures [9]. 3.2 Daily Returns of External Markets - The FTSE China A50 futures, ICE Brent crude oil, London gold, London silver, ICE No. 11 sugar, CBOT soybeans, CBOT wheat, CBOT corn, and CBOT soybean oil all rose, while LME copper and CBOT soybean meal fell [11]. 3.3 Morning Comments on Major Varieties 3.3.1 Financial Products - **Stock Index**: After the decline of US indices, the previous trading day's stock index rebounded. The financing balance increased. In the long - term, the strategic allocation period of the Chinese capital market has started [2][12]. - **Treasury Bonds**: Treasury bonds rebounded after hitting the bottom. The central bank continued to inject medium - term liquidity. The domestic economic situation was still in adjustment. With the Fed's rate cut, the central bank's policy space has increased, but policy adjustment needs central government deployment. It is recommended to be bearish on long - term bonds and neutral on short - term bonds [13]. 3.3.2 Energy and Chemical Products - **Crude Oil**: SC crude oil rose slightly at night. Russia restricted fuel exports, and the global decline rate of oil and gas field production accelerated. Future OPEC production increase should be monitored [3][14]. - **Methanol**: Methanol fell at night. The average operating load of coal - to - olefin plants increased, and the coastal inventory decreased. It is short - term bearish [15]. - **Rubber**: Rubber prices fell slightly. Supply may increase, the bonded area inventory decreased, and tire production increased. It is expected to fluctuate within a range [16]. - **Polyolefins**: Polyolefins rebounded slightly. Prices follow the cost, and future demand and supply policies should be monitored. It may fluctuate within a low - level range [17]. - **Glass and Soda Ash**: Glass futures continued to rebound, and the supply - demand situation was slowly improving. The inventory of glass and soda ash decreased. Attention should be paid to autumn consumption and policy changes [4][18]. 3.3.3 Metals - **Precious Metals**: Gold's upward trend paused. The Fed's rate - cut stance was cautious, but the rate - cut prospect was clear. The long - term driver for gold was still there, but there was short - term adjustment [20]. - **Copper**: Copper prices fell at night. The Indonesian mine accident may lead to a supply - demand gap, which will support copper prices in the long - term. Attention should be paid to the US dollar, smelting output, and downstream demand [21]. - **Zinc**: Zinc prices rose slightly at night. The smelting output may increase, and the short - term supply may be in surplus. It may fluctuate weakly within a range [22]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: Weekly production increased. Inventory was being digested rapidly. It may fluctuate in the short - term, and the actual situation of projects in Jiangxi should be monitored [23]. 3.3.4 Black Metals - **Coking Coal and Coke**: The night - session prices were weak. The fundamentals of finished steel products improved, and the prices are expected to fluctuate at a high level [25]. - **Iron Ore**: Steel mills resumed production, and iron ore demand was supported. Global iron ore shipments decreased, and port inventory decreased rapidly. It is expected to fluctuate strongly [26]. - **Steel**: The profitability of steel mills remained stable, and supply pressure increased. The supply - demand contradiction was not significant, and the market is expected to be bullish, with hot - rolled coils stronger than rebar [27]. 3.3.5 Agricultural Products - **Protein Meal**: Soybean meal fell at night, and rapeseed meal was strong. Argentina temporarily cancelled export taxes, but the exemption period ended early. Domestic soybean meal may fluctuate at a low level [28]. - **Edible Oils**: Edible oils were strong at night. The impact of floods in Malaysia on palm oil production was limited. After digesting the negative news of Argentina's tax cancellation, oil prices rebounded [29]. - **Sugar**: International sugar prices are expected to be weak, while domestic sugar prices are supported by low inventory but pressured by imports. Zhengzhou sugar may fluctuate after a rebound [30]. - **Cotton**: ICE cotton prices rose slightly. International supply pressure still exists, and domestic new - cotton purchase is in focus. Cotton prices are expected to fluctuate weakly [31]. 3.3.6 Shipping Index - **Container Shipping to Europe**: The EC rebounded. Shipping companies signaled post - holiday price support, but success depends on cargo volume and capacity control. It is expected to fluctuate in the short - term [32].

Domestic Market Overview - The domestic market experienced narrow fluctuations with mixed performance on September 25, 2025. The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3853.3 points, down 0.01%, while the Shenzhen Component Index rose 0.67% to 13445.9 points. The STAR Market 50 Index increased by 1.24%, and the ChiNext Index rose by 1.58%. The total trading volume of the A-share market reached 239.18 billion yuan, slightly up from the previous day [1][4][9] - Among the 30 sectors tracked by CITIC, 11 sectors saw gains, with telecommunications, media, and electric equipment & new energy leading the increases. Conversely, home appliances, textiles & apparel, and agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry & fishery experienced significant declines. Notably, indices related to servers, semiconductor silicon wafers, and the copper industry showed active performance [1][4][9] Overseas Market Overview - On September 24, 2025, the three major U.S. stock indices experienced slight declines. The Dow Jones fell by 0.38%, the S&P 500 dropped by 0.5%, and the Nasdaq also decreased by 0.5%. The index tracking the seven major U.S. tech companies fell by 0.34%, with Tesla dropping over 4% and Facebook declining by more than 1%. Chinese concept stocks showed mixed results, with Bitdeer falling over 5% [2][4] Key News Highlights - The Ministry of Commerce announced an investigation into trade and investment barriers related to restrictions imposed by Mexico on Chinese products, particularly concerning increased import tariffs on various categories including automobiles, textiles, and electronics [3][11] - The total scale of public funds in China has surpassed 36 trillion yuan, marking the fifth historical high this year. As of the end of August 2025, the scale of stock funds increased by over 620 billion yuan, while bond funds saw a decline of over 28 billion yuan [3][15] - The Digital RMB International Operation Center has officially commenced operations, aimed at enhancing cross-border payment systems and promoting the internationalization of the RMB [3][17][18] - The China Nonferrous Metals Industry Association's Copper Industry Branch is accelerating research on standardized management measures for copper smelting capacity construction, addressing the issue of "involution" competition within the copper smelting industry [3][20][21][22]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core View of the Report - The continuous rise of the US dollar restricts the upward movement of copper prices. The strong US economic data increases the uncertainty of the Fed's future interest - rate cut path, and the market's expectation of a rate cut in October has cooled [1]. 3. Summary According to Related Catalogs 3.1 Copper Fundamental Data - **Futures Prices**: The closing price of the Shanghai copper main contract was 82,710 with a daily increase of 3.44%, and the night - session closing price was 82,380 with a decrease of 0.40%. The LME copper 3M electronic disk was at 10,276 with a decrease of 0.43% [1]. - **Trading Volume and Open Interest**: The trading volume of the Shanghai copper main contract was 334,893, an increase of 283,166 from the previous day, and the open interest was 238,523, an increase of 66,079. The trading volume of the LME copper 3M electronic disk was 42,366, a decrease of 4,722, and the open interest was 296,000, an increase of 6,048 [1]. - **Futures Inventory**: The Shanghai copper inventory was 27,662, an increase of 243, and the LME copper inventory was 144,425, a decrease of 350. The LME copper注销仓单 ratio was 7.89%, a decrease of 0.24% [1]. - **Spreads**: The LME copper spread decreased by 0.18, the保税 - zone warehouse receipt premium decreased by 4, and the Shanghai 1 bright copper price increased by 1,300. Many other spreads also showed different degrees of change [1]. 3.2 Macro and Industry News - **Macro**: The US second - quarter GDP growth was revised up to 3.8%, the highest in nearly two years, and the PCE price index was 2.6%. The strong data increased the uncertainty of the Fed's future interest - rate cut path [1]. - **Industry**: In August, China's refined copper imports were 30.72 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 8.17% and a year - on - year increase of 11.14%. Congo was the largest supplier. Freeport declared force majeure at its Indonesian Grasberg mine, and its comprehensive sales in Q3 2025 are expected to be about 4% lower for copper and 6% lower for gold than the July 2025 estimate [1][3]. 3.3 Trend Intensity - The copper trend intensity is 0, indicating a neutral view [3]

Core Viewpoint - Jiangxi Copper (600362) shares rose over 4%, reaching a new high of 28.18 HKD, driven by industry developments and company fundamentals [1] Industry Summary - The China Nonferrous Metals Industry Association Copper Branch held its fifth meeting on September 24, emphasizing the negative impact of "involution" competition in the copper smelting industry, which harms national and industry interests [1] - The global second-largest copper mine, Grasberg in Indonesia, announced a force majeure and halted production due to a landslide [1] Company Summary - Jiangxi Copper possesses abundant copper resources and clear cost advantages, with stable annual production of copper and by-product gold, providing a solid profit foundation [1] - Future overseas resource expansion may yield potential growth, with the company's stake in the First Quantum Panama copper mine expected to resume production, and the Afghan Aynak copper mine development anticipated to progress [1] - The company's stake in the Kazakhstan Bakuta tungsten mine is steadily increasing production, with these potential projects expected to contribute significantly to performance growth [1]