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【机构策略】把握机会 风格切换正当时
Zheng Quan Shi Bao Wang· 2025-09-08 01:24
Group 1 - The market is expected to gradually cool down while waiting for signals from the fundamentals, with clear signals emerging from both Europe and the US regarding monetary and fiscal expansion [1] - The "anti-involution" trend in China is becoming clearer, leading to potential opportunities in sectors benefiting from improved operating conditions, such as non-ferrous metals, capital goods, and raw materials [1] - After profit recovery, sectors related to domestic demand, including food and beverage, tourism, and scenic spots, are expected to present investment opportunities [1] Group 2 - Recent liquidity characteristics in domestic and overseas markets show a clear divergence in ETF fund flows, with a decrease in broad-based ETFs and an increase in industry/theme-specific ETFs [2] - The market may be entering the last round of intensive subscription and redemption for active public funds since 2021, with core assets expected to gradually absorb redemption pressure [2] - The coexistence of high debt funding rates and passive interest rate cuts in overseas markets indicates a shift in China's manufacturing sector, with the potential for improved pricing power and profit margins in the long term [2]
券商晨会精华 | 持续看多锂电、储能
智通财经网· 2025-09-08 00:52
Market Overview - The market experienced a rebound last Friday, with the ChiNext Index leading the gains, and the Shanghai Composite Index regaining the 3800-point level. The total trading volume in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets was 2.3 trillion yuan, a decrease of 239.6 billion yuan compared to the previous trading day. The Shanghai Composite Index rose by 1.24%, the Shenzhen Component Index increased by 3.89%, and the ChiNext Index surged by 6.55% [1]. Sector Performance - Solid-state batteries, photovoltaics, CPO, and third-generation semiconductors were among the top-performing sectors, while a few sectors such as banking and dairy experienced declines [1]. Analyst Insights Huatai Securities - Huatai Securities noted that the short-cycle continues to show differentiation, with TMT and advanced manufacturing likely to see sustained proactive inventory replenishment. The overall recovery in inventory levels is expected to take time to reflect in revenue. The report highlighted that the mid-term dividend distribution in A-shares has reached a historical high, suggesting a focus on sectors like power grid equipment, engineering machinery, and basic chemicals [2]. CITIC Securities - CITIC Securities expressed a bullish outlook on lithium batteries and energy storage, citing the upcoming peak season and unexpected demand in energy storage. The supply-demand relationship in the lithium battery sector has significantly improved, with stable performance from low-valuation leading companies being favored. The report also mentioned that the domestic market for energy storage is expected to grow due to favorable policies and increasing demand in overseas markets [3]. Tianfeng Securities - Tianfeng Securities highlighted the investment opportunities in edge AI, driven by supportive policies, leadership from major companies, and upcoming product launches. The report emphasized Apple's commitment to innovation in edge AI products, which could lead to unexpected improvements in user experience and sales, suggesting a focus on Apple's supply chain [4].
青海研发的储能系统入选“国字号”名单
Ke Ji Ri Bao· 2025-09-08 00:40
Group 1 - The "35 kV high-voltage direct-connected grid-type energy storage system" project led by State Grid Qinghai Electric Power Company has been recognized in the fifth batch of major technological equipment in the energy sector, indicating a significant advancement in the development of new energy systems and storage technologies in Qinghai Province [1][2] - The project has completed its development and is now ready for engineering application, receiving national-level recognition for its technological capabilities [1] - Since the 14th Five-Year Plan, Qinghai Province has seen rapid growth in renewable energy, with the installed capacity of renewable energy reaching 73%, leading to challenges in grid stability due to high proportions of renewable energy and power electronic devices [1] Group 2 - The system features several key technological breakthroughs, including a complete design scheme for the 35 kV high-voltage direct-connected energy storage system, advanced grid frequency and voltage control methods, and a self-adaptive virtual energy balancing method for high-voltage cascading energy storage [2] - The energy storage control system developed allows for multi-time scale and multi-objective control, enhancing energy management and power coordination [2] - The successful development and application of this system at the Baoku Energy Storage Power Station in Haixi Prefecture, Qinghai Province, is expected to significantly improve the grid's capacity to absorb new energy and drive technological innovation across the entire energy storage industry [2]
累计装机规模约为“十三五”末的20倍 新型储能迈向规模化发展关键时期
Ke Ji Ri Bao· 2025-09-08 00:24
Core Insights - The fourth China International Energy Storage Exhibition (EESA) showcased the rapid evolution of China's energy storage industry, highlighting a shift from single-function systems to intelligent, multi-functional solutions [1] - The new energy storage capacity in China is projected to reach 73.76 million kilowatts (168 million kilowatt-hours) by the end of 2024, marking a 130% increase from the end of 2023 and approximately 20 times the capacity at the end of the 13th Five-Year Plan [2] - The exhibition featured innovative products from leading companies, including the EN 8 Pro system from Envision Group, which integrates AI for efficient interaction with power markets and systems [2] - Trina Solar is focusing on energy storage solutions, with its Elementa series battery storage system capable of storing up to 5,015 kilowatt-hours, aimed at stabilizing power grids [3] - Lithium-ion batteries dominate the new energy storage technology landscape, accounting for 96.4% of installed capacity, while other technologies like compressed air and flow batteries are emerging [4] - The rise of long-duration energy storage technologies, such as all-vanadium flow batteries, is expected to reshape the industry's technology roadmap [5] - Companies are increasingly adopting innovative cooling technologies to enhance the safety and lifespan of energy storage systems, as demonstrated by Tianqi Hongyuan's immersion cooling technology [6][7] - The new energy storage market is entering a phase of rapid expansion, with a 27.5% year-on-year increase in new installations in the first half of 2023 [8] - The integration of hydrogen energy systems with storage solutions is gaining traction, exemplified by Zhongtian Technology's hydrogen production system [8] - The V2G (Vehicle-to-Grid) interactive solution from Shenzhen Yingfeiyuan Technology allows electric vehicles to supply power back to the grid, promoting energy balance and providing financial benefits to vehicle owners [9] Industry Trends - The energy storage industry is transitioning towards intelligent and collaborative systems, driven by the dual goals of carbon neutrality and technological innovation [2][4] - The focus is shifting from manufacturing to comprehensive solutions in the photovoltaic sector, with companies like Trina Solar leading the charge [3] - The diversification of energy storage technologies is evident, with various innovative solutions being showcased at the exhibition [4] - The collaboration between energy storage and hydrogen production is seen as a revolutionary step towards improving energy efficiency and application scenarios [8] - The advancements in energy storage technologies are positioning China as a leader in the global energy storage market, with significant growth opportunities for domestic companies [9]
海辰储能海外大客户破产,真订单有多少?
阿尔法工场研究院· 2025-09-08 00:02
以下文章来源于雪贝财经 ,作者周闪闪 雪贝财经 . 提供专业、有洞察力的内容。 同时,其资产负债表中 " 以公允价值计量且其变动计入当期损益的金融负债 "在 2022 年达到 49.11 亿元 , 2023 年突然降至 450万 , 2024 年则已清零。这背后是否与历史 优先股 /类权益工具的公允价值变动 与重分类有关? 此外 ,还存在 "其他收益及亏损净额"的大幅摆动。 对于投资者而言,需要关注的迷惑还有更多。 海辰速度与交易真实性 海辰储能在 2019年才成立,主营业务为提供以储能电池和系统为核心的全场景储能解决方案。以锂离子储能电池出货量计,其于2024年全球储 能市场已排名第三。 导语:海辰储能2024年之所以能够实现扭亏为盈主要依靠北美市场,因其国内市场毛利率只有惨淡的8.1%,而海外市场的毛利率则高达42.3%。就在8 月,海辰储能在一份声明中极力淡化海外大客户Powin破产对其业务造成的影响。 高速增长的营收背后是急剧膨胀的应收账款,极低的研发费用率却在 5年内拿下了多达4000项专利,如此等等 。 我们通过研读海辰储能的 IPO 招股书和财务数据,发现其辉煌的业绩背后似乎隐藏着众多难以自洽的 ...
中信建投:持续看多锂电、储能
Xin Lang Cai Jing· 2025-09-07 23:52
中信建投研报表示,锂电方面,旺季来临+储能超预期,电芯涨价在即,且需求远期能见度高,板块供 需关系已经彻底扭转,业绩确定性强估值低位具备高低切逻辑。看好:①业绩稳定的低估值龙头公司; ②弹性标的关注6F率先涨价。储能方面,136号文后峰谷差拉大+各省容量政策到位推进国内市场招标 数据持续高增。海外市场今年以来欧洲、澳洲、亚洲市场需求好,预计行业仍将维持高景气。持续看多 锂电、储能。 ...
华泰证券:继续看好风电、储能、电力设备结构性机会
Di Yi Cai Jing· 2025-09-07 23:46
(文章来源:第一财经) 华泰证券研报指出,近日国家发改委发布《电力中长期市场基本规则(征求意见稿)》,针对电力中长 期市场的参与主体、交易品种、电价机制进行修订。过去几个月"136号文"各省承接文件加速出台,新 能源发展进入电价新时代。电力市场化政策细节正在持续丰富,继续看好风电、储能、电力设备结构性 机会。 ...
海外需求爆发,订单暴增220%!储能电芯遭“疯抢”;“深空经济”概念出炉,全球规模将达到万亿美元——《投资早参》
Mei Ri Jing Ji Xin Wen· 2025-09-07 23:06
Important Market News - As of August 2025, China's foreign exchange reserves reached $33,222 billion, an increase of $29.9 billion from the end of July, marking the highest level since January 2016 [1] - The rise in reserves is attributed to the depreciation of the US dollar index and overall increase in global financial asset prices, supported by China's stable economic performance [1] Industry Insights Energy Storage Market - In 2025, the overseas energy storage market is experiencing a surge in orders, leading to high demand for energy storage cells and systems, with 100Ah cell orders booked until February 2026 [2] - The North American market is driven by both large-scale storage and commercial storage, while countries like Germany and Italy have household storage penetration rates exceeding 25% [2] - In the first half of 2025, Europe added 12GWh of new storage capacity, a 210% year-on-year increase, with household storage accounting for over 60% of this growth [2][3] Aerospace Industry - The first Deep Space Economy and Industry Development Conference was held in Hefei, proposing a framework for the "deep space economy" and projecting a global market size of $1 trillion by 2040 [2] - The Chinese commercial aerospace market is expected to explode in 2025, with a market size increasing from 9.2 billion yuan in 2020 to 310 billion yuan in 2024, reflecting a compound annual growth rate exceeding 100% [4] Industrial Internet - The 2025 Global Industrial Internet Conference highlighted the integration of artificial intelligence with industrial internet, showcasing significant advancements in smart applications [5] - China has established over 30,000 basic-level smart factories, covering more than 80% of manufacturing industry categories, with the industrial internet market expected to exceed 1.2 trillion yuan by 2025 [5]
中信银行北京分行携手中信金租、海博思创 共筑“储能 + 金融”产融协同新生态
Bei Jing Qing Nian Bao· 2025-09-07 18:19
Core Viewpoint - The collaboration between CITIC Bank Beijing Branch, Haibo Sichuang Technology Co., Ltd., and CITIC Financial Leasing Co., Ltd. aims to leverage the integration of industry and finance in the "energy storage + finance" sector, targeting the trillion-level energy storage asset market to support the construction of a new power system and the achievement of carbon neutrality goals [1][2]. Group 1: Industry Context - China's dual carbon goals are advancing, with the National Development and Reform Commission's Document No. 136 being implemented, leading to a shift in the energy storage industry from policy-driven to market-led growth [1]. - The construction costs of energy storage stations are decreasing, and the electricity spot market is gradually opening, enhancing the economic viability of energy storage assets [1]. Group 2: Company Profiles - Haibo Sichuang is a leading company in China's energy storage industry, focusing on the research, production, and application of new energy storage technologies, with a market capitalization exceeding 10 billion [2]. - CITIC Bank, one of the earliest commercial banks established during China's reform and opening-up, has been actively involved in domestic and international financing, providing differentiated financial services to enterprises [2]. - CITIC Financial Leasing is a strategic component of CITIC Group and CITIC Bank, focusing on financing leasing in various sectors, including green business, and has accumulated rich experience in financing projects related to wind, solar, water, storage, and hydrogen [3]. Group 3: Strategic Collaboration - The three parties will leverage their respective resources and strengths in industry, technology, financial innovation, and leasing to create a financing model that integrates "energy storage assets + specialized operations + comprehensive financial solutions" [3]. - This strategic partnership reflects CITIC Bank Beijing Branch's commitment to green finance and supporting national energy strategies, aiming to innovate financial products and services to enhance the vitality of the energy storage industry [3].
大涨之后再看反内卷:风光储的绝地反击
2025-09-07 16:19
Summary of Conference Call Records Industry Overview - The conference call discusses the investment opportunities in the renewable energy sector, particularly focusing on solar energy, energy storage, and wind power. The "anti-involution" strategy has emerged as a new investment hotspot, with market funds shifting towards low-position, high-probability targets [1][3]. Key Companies and Their Performance 1. **阳光电源 (Sungrow Power Supply)** - Benefiting from the explosive demand for energy storage both domestically and internationally, with overseas large storage projects showing an Internal Rate of Return (IRR) exceeding 10% [1][5]. - Expected to maintain a 10% growth in shipment volume this year, with a projected output of 160-165 GW in solar and 40-50 GWh in energy storage by 2025 [12][13]. 2. **阿特斯太阳能 (Canadian Solar)** - Achieved a quarterly profit of 749 million yuan in Q2 2025, exceeding expectations, with a gross margin in the component business above 10% [6][7]. - Plans to diversify its production and supply chain to mitigate policy risks, with a target of over 3.5 GW production in the U.S. [6][8]. 3. **海博思创 (Huaibei Energy)** - Expected to ship 8-9 GWh in Q3 2025, with a clear shipment target for the coming years [14]. - Benefits from domestic energy storage policies, with a projected stable cash flow from independent energy storage operations [14]. 4. **德业股份 (Deye Technology)** - Anticipates overall revenue of 14 billion yuan and net profit of approximately 3.9 to 4 billion yuan by 2025, driven by European demand recovery and potential in the Indonesian market [15][16]. 5. **固德威 (GoodWe)** - Expected to see a doubling in market demand in Australia due to new subsidy policies, with projected shipments of 50,000 units in Q3 2025 [17]. - Anticipated annual performance of 250 to 300 million yuan [17]. 6. **运达股份 (Windar Photonics)** - Reported a 2.2 percentage point increase in gross margin in H1 2025, with expectations of profit reaching 650 million yuan or higher for the year [18][19]. 7. **东方电缆 (Oriental Cable)** - Holds a record high order backlog of 18.9 billion yuan, with 11.5 billion yuan in submarine cable orders [20]. - Expected to achieve profits exceeding 1.5 to 1.6 billion yuan for the year, with significant contributions from European market expansions [20]. Investment Logic and Market Trends - The "anti-involution" investment logic focuses on sectors like photovoltaics, energy storage, and new energy vehicles, which have been identified as key areas for growth following a government article on the topic [3]. - The global energy storage demand is projected to grow over 40% this year, with significant increases in China, the U.S., and Europe [5]. Additional Insights - The independent energy storage sector is expected to yield high returns, with IRR generally exceeding 6%, and some regions even surpassing 10% [5]. - Companies are increasingly focusing on diversifying their supply chains and production capabilities to mitigate risks associated with policy changes and market fluctuations [8][11]. This summary encapsulates the key points from the conference call, highlighting the performance and strategies of major companies in the renewable energy sector, along with the broader market trends and investment opportunities.