Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Leading the Market - A" and the rating is maintained [6] Core Views - The report highlights the impact of avian influenza on breeding restrictions, particularly focusing on white feather chickens [2] - The report indicates a short-term supply-demand game in pig farming, emphasizing the need to monitor weight feedback [22] - The report suggests investment opportunities in the aquaculture sector, noting stable prices in the aquatic products market [58] Summary by Sections 1. Weekly Market Review - The agricultural sector increased by 0.56% this week, ranking second among the Shenwan first-level industries [13] - The animal husbandry and veterinary sectors showed an upward trend, with notable stock performances [16] 2. Livestock Farming - **Pig Farming**: The average price of live pigs is 14.66 CNY/kg, with a week-on-week increase of 0.07% and a two-week increase of 0.31%. The average price of piglets is 647 CNY/head, with a week-on-week increase of 2.70% [22] - **Poultry Farming**: The average price of white feather meat chickens is 7.48 CNY/kg, with a week-on-week increase of 2.05%. The price of meat chicks is 2.98 CNY/chick, with a week-on-week increase of 2.41% [33] - **Aquaculture**: Prices for various aquatic products remain stable, with carp priced at 18.00 CNY/kg and shrimp at 300.00 CNY/kg [58] 3. Investment Recommendations - For pig farming, recommended companies include Wen's Foodstuffs, Muyuan Foods, and Shennong Group. For white feather chicken, focus on companies like Shengnong Development and Yisheng Biotechnology [4] - The report anticipates a tighter supply-demand balance in the first half of 2025, suggesting significant performance improvement potential in the post-cycle sector [4] 4. Industry Events - The report notes that over 35 million acres of grain have been sown nationwide, with a focus on improving yields through modern agricultural practices [69] - Central government support for pig farming is highlighted, particularly in terms of subsidies for breeding sows and fattening pigs [69]

姓名：曹宝琴 邮箱：caobaoqin@nzfco.com 期货从业资格号：F3008987 期货投资咨询从业证书号：Z0012851 今 日 早 评 重点品种： 【短评-焦煤】Mysteel统计独立焦企全样本：产能利用率 为71.90%增0.36%；焦 炭日均产 量64.13增0.32，焦 炭库存 129.99减4.96，炼焦煤总库存862.88增40.66，焦煤可用天数 10.1天增0.43天。评：供应端，产地部分煤矿因井下原因及煤 矸石处理问题收紧产量，甘其毛都通关车数环比回升，口岸库 存居高不下，海外澳煤价格低位企稳，澳煤进口性价比暂无。 需求端，焦炭产量小幅增加，刚需支撑仍存，下游采购积极性 好转，上游煤矿小幅去库。总体来看，宏观情绪改善以及刚需 支撑尚存，现货市场情绪有所回暖，盘面估值偏低，下行阻力 加大。煤矿生产仍处高位，基本面改善程度有限，二季度蒙煤 长协价格仍有下调预期，预计短期盘面震荡偏弱。 【短评-纯碱】全国重质纯碱主流价1504元/吨，下降3元/ 吨；纯碱开工88.96%，开工窄幅增加；金山、江苏井神检修结 束，盐湖、青海昆仑设备恢复；连云港碱业110万吨/年新产能 预期一季度投产；纯 ...

ETF甄选 | 市场全天震荡走势，周期ETF稀土、光 伏、养殖等表现亮眼 2025年3月26日，市场全天震荡走势，三大指数集体收跌。截至收盘，沪指跌0.04%，深成指跌0.05%， 创业板指跌0.26%。 板块方面，化纤行业、电机、光伏设备等板块涨幅居前，船舶制造、银行、采掘行业等板块跌幅居前。 财信证券指出，预计二季度光伏产业链价格受抢装需求释放以及低库存补库两方面驱动而有所回升，短 期关注主链企业盈利修复。新能源市场化政策落地后，电力交易机制及相关延伸服务持续演化，中期关 注需求侧响应相关方向的应用。 ETF方面，或受相关消息刺激，稀土、光伏、养殖等相关ETF表现亮眼！ 【机构：稀土价格处于周期底部位置，板块中长期趋势明确】 中泰证券表示，稀土价格处于周期底部位置，进口矿纳入管控，供给格局进一步集中，价格中枢有望上 移，25 年人形机器人开始进入量产阶段，若按照远期1亿台人形机器人销量，远期空间约20-40 万吨， 相当于再造一个稀土永磁市场，板块中长期趋势明确。 国金证券认为，临近2025年第一批配额发放时点，基于2024年度稀土价格整体呈现下行趋势、触底回升 幅度并不大，该行认为2025年配额增速或继 ...

午盘全线飘红！机器人赛道狂飙，散户直呼"终于喝到肉汤" 老铁们中午好！今天的A股市场可真是热闹非凡！三大指数先跌后涨，沪指勉强收红0.18%，创业板指表现更强势。最让人惊喜的是超4000只个股飘红，虽 然成交量缩了553亿，但这波"缩量上涨"的行情，活脱脱上演了一出"散户逆袭"的大戏！ 与热闹的成长股形成鲜明对比的，是银行股的集体躺平。招商银行跌超4%领跌，兴业、浦发等老牌蓝筹跟跌。但聪明钱可没闲着，自由现金流ETF规模暴 增234%，15亿资金疯狂涌入高股息资产。这操作就像在菜市场抢特价菜——既要新鲜又要实惠！ 别看盘面热闹，暗流可不少。高盛刚刚泼了盆冷水，警告A股牛市可能被事件风险打断。眼下正值财报季，稍有不慎就是业绩雷。但乐观派发现北向资金连 续4天净流入9亿，这波"明修栈道暗度陈仓"的戏码，像极了机构在玩心理战。 散户们今天终于扬眉吐气："指数涨得不多，但账户红彤彤啊！"不过要提醒各位老铁：月底向来是资金敏感期，加上外围关税政策悬而未决，小心主力 玩"钓鱼执法"。看看机器人概念这波疯狂，南方精工市盈率都飙到-368了，这种击鼓传花的游戏，千万别当最后一棒！ 操作策略记住三要诀：一是盯着机器人、光伏这些 ...

证券研究报告 | 2025年03月16日 美国农业部（USDA）月度供需报告数据分析专题 优于大市 全球大豆压榨量环比调增，中国玉米进口预估进一步下修 种植链农产品：中国玉米进口量预估下修，全球大豆压榨量调增。 1）玉米：国内供需宽松顶部已现，玉米价格有望维持温和上涨。USDA3 月供 需报告将玉米 24/25 产季期末库销比环比调减 0.13%至 23.32%，其中，中国 玉米 24/25 年度进口目标较 2 月预估进一步下调 200 万吨至 800 万吨玉米， 最终中国玉米期末库销比环比减 0.64%至 64.27%。目前国内玉米价格已处于 历史周期底部位置，中储粮自 2024 年 12 月起多次扩大收储，提振国内玉米 市场，后续预计价格底部支撑较强。 2）大豆：南美丰产压力下预计上半年价格维持底部震荡，新季美国大豆减 产或在今年秋季兑现。USDA3 月供需报告中预计 24/25 产季全球产量维持、 压榨量调增、期末库存略减，最终全球大豆期末库销比环比调减 0.94pcts 至 29.67%；总体 2025 上半年全球大豆供应压力仍大，考虑到贸易政策扰动 影响，预计价格维持底部震荡。当前豆系产品价格处于历 ...

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Overweight" indicating that the industry is expected to outperform the overall market [48]. Core Viewpoints - The report emphasizes focusing on the pet food and breeding sectors, highlighting a favorable competitive landscape and potential for performance recovery in the breeding industry [3][4]. - The pet economy is driven by demographic changes, with a significant increase in new pet owners expected from 2025 to 2040, supporting long-term growth [7][8]. - The breeding sector is nearing a bottom, with expectations of a cyclical recovery in the livestock market, particularly for pork and beef [7][8]. Summary by Sections Market Performance - The Shenwan Agricultural Index rose by 2.8% this week, outperforming the CSI 300 Index which increased by 1.6% [7][8]. - Top-performing stocks included Xue Rong Biological (44.0%), Pingtan Development (16.8%), and Zhongji Health (13.1%) [8]. Pet Food Sector - The pet food industry remains a core focus, with expectations of continued growth driven by consumer upgrades and a favorable competitive environment [7][8]. - Leading companies in the pet economy include Guibao Pet, Zhongchong Co., and Ruipu Biological [7][8]. Breeding Sector - The report suggests a left-side layout in the breeding sector, with the pork breeding industry nearing a bottom and a potential recovery in the beef market expected by late 2025 to early 2026 [7][8]. - Current pork prices are low, with the average price at 14.63 CNY/kg, indicating a challenging environment for farmers [7][8]. Chicken Breeding - The white feather chicken market is showing signs of recovery, with prices for chicken seedlings rising by 8.5% week-on-week [7][8]. - The report highlights the importance of consumer demand, particularly in the restaurant and catering sectors, for the recovery of the chicken breeding market [7][8]. Key Companies and Valuations - Key companies in the breeding sector include Muyuan Foods, Wens Foodstuffs, and Juxing Agriculture, with varying earnings per share (EPS) and price-to-earnings (PE) ratios projected for 2023 to 2025 [43].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the agricultural sector [5] Core Views - The agricultural sector is expected to perform better than the market, with specific focus on corn, soybeans, wheat, sugar, cotton, and livestock [5] Corn - The USDA March report indicates a slight increase in global corn production and usage, with the ending stocks-to-use ratio adjusted down by 0.13% to 23.32% [16][17] - China's corn import target for the 2024/25 season has been revised down by 2 million tons to 8 million tons, leading to a reduction in the ending stocks-to-use ratio to 64.27% [17][18] - Domestic corn prices are expected to maintain a recovery trend supported by state reserves and a historical price bottom [19][20] Soybeans - The USDA report maintains global soybean production estimates while increasing the crushing volume by 0.84% to 295 million tons, with ending stocks reduced to 121.41 million tons [25][26] - The soybean market is expected to experience price fluctuations in the first half of 2025, with long-term trends indicating a tightening supply [28][29] - The U.S. soybean planting area is projected to decrease by 3.6%, which may lead to a tighter supply in the upcoming season [31] Wheat - The USDA report shows an increase in global wheat production and consumption, with the ending stocks-to-use ratio rising to 32.24% [35][36] - China's wheat import target for the 2024/25 season has been reduced by 1.5 million tons to 6.5 million tons, indicating a relatively loose supply situation [36][37] Sugar - The report indicates a continuation of a loose supply-demand balance for sugar, with domestic production expected to increase by 1.04 million tons [4] - Short-term sugar prices are anticipated to remain weak due to high inventory levels and seasonal consumption patterns [4] Cotton - Global cotton demand is projected to increase, with the ending stocks-to-use ratio adjusted down to 67.21% [4] - Domestic cotton prices are at historical lows, and a recovery in demand could lead to a rebound [4] Livestock - U.S. pork prices are expected to see a slight increase, while domestic pig prices may decline, but low-cost producers are likely to maintain profitability [7] - The poultry market is affected by avian influenza, with expectations for a gradual recovery in supply [7] - Egg supply in China is currently abundant, with pressure on prices expected to persist throughout the year [7]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the report emphasizes the investment strategy of "Technology + Consumption" for 2025, with technology already forming a consensus expectation while the consumption aspect still has potential to be explored [1][9]. - The report identifies two key expectation gaps: the first being that even with weak fiscal expansion, retail sales (社零) will exhibit higher elasticity [2][12]. - The report anticipates that as the fiscal spending cycle transitions from a contraction phase in 2023-2024 to a weak expansion phase in 2025, retail sales will show significant upward elasticity [2][12]. Group 2 - The second expectation gap highlights the easing of local debt pressure on consumption, indicating that provinces with higher debt burdens will see more pronounced rebounds in retail sales in categories such as jewelry, clothing, automobiles, and cosmetics [3][18]. - The report suggests that the market may experience short-term consolidation due to high market sentiment, profit-taking, and the calendar effect of the Two Sessions, but the core driving force of the current market remains unchanged [20][21]. - Industry allocation recommendations include four key sectors: (1) Technology growth focusing on AI and autonomous control, (2) Consumption driven by policy and endogenous recovery, (3) Cost improvement sectors, and (4) Structural opportunities in overseas markets [21][22].

我们不是资讯的搬运工 而是有态度的发现者 2. 香港证监会发布香港虚拟资产市场监管路线图 3. 上海:经过5年努力中心城公共交通机动化出行分担率不低 于50% 二、行业最新动态 1. 广东推动人工智能与机器人领域立法 机器人行业政策支持不 断,相关个股:光莆股份(300632)、华中数控(300161)等 2. 中国信通院启动多模态智能体技术规范编制 AI智能体迎爆发元 年,相关个股:中控技术(688777)、能科科技(603859)等 3. 知名厂商实施涨价 机构看好存储行业周期复苏,相关个股: 万润科技(002654)、朗科科技(300042)等 万和财富早班车 2025年3月12日 | ● 国内金融市场 ● | | | ● 股指期货 · | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 品种 | 收盘 | 涨跌幅 | 品种 | 收盘 | 涨跌幅 | | 上证指数 | 3379.83 | 0.41% | 上证当月连续 | 2675.40 | 0.47% | | 深证成指 10861.16 | | 0.33% | 沪深当月连续 | 3930.00 | 0.37% | ...