银河有色 有色研发报告 铜 有色和贵金属每日早盘观察 2025 年 7 月 23 日星期三 | 研究所副所长、有色及贵 | 有色和贵金属每日早盘观察 | | --- | --- | | 金属板块负责人：车红云 | | | 期货从业证号：F03088215 | 贵金属 | | 投资咨询号：Z0017510 | 【市场回顾】 | | | 1. 贵金属市场：昨日，伦敦金由跌转涨，站上 3430 美元关口，最终收涨 1.02%，收报 | | 研究员：王伟 | 3431.2 美元/盎司，再创一个多月新高；伦敦银再度突破 39 美元关口，最终收涨 | | 期货从业证号：F03143400 | 0.95%，报 39.265 美元/盎司，续刷 2011 年 9 月新高。受外盘影响，沪金主力合约收涨 | | 投资咨询从业证号： Z0022141 | 0.91%，报 792.94 元/克，沪银主力合约盘中将历史新高刷至 9522，最终收涨 0.75%， | | | 报 9453 元/千克。 | | 研究员：王露晨 CFA | 2.美元指数：美元指数延续跌势，美盘初持续下挫，最终收跌 0.5%，报 97.322。 | | 期货从业 ...

有色早报 研究中心有色团队 2025/07/23 铜 ： 日期 沪铜现货 升贴水 废精铜 价差 上期所 库存 沪铜 仓单 现货进口 盈利 三月进口 盈利 保税库 premium 提单 premium 伦铜 C-3M LME 库存 LME 注销仓单 2025/07/16 95 164 81462 50242 -149.02 284.13 50.0 66.0 -64.49 121000 12325 2025/07/17 110 114 81462 42139 -219.86 526.79 49.0 65.0 -58.71 122150 11200 2025/07/18 175 408 84556 38239 -237.75 330.02 49.0 65.0 -53.76 122175 14075 2025/07/21 215 848 84556 28177 -44.80 476.03 49.0 66.0 -66.96 122075 12575 2025/07/22 250 794 84556 25507 76.62 427.41 49.0 66.0 -68.24 124850 12250 变化 35 -54 0 ...

有色商品日报 有色商品日报（2025 年 7 月 23 日） 一、研究观点 | 品 种 | 点评 | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 隔夜 LME 铜上涨 0.31%至 9898 美元/吨；SHFE 铜上涨 0.4%至 元/吨；国内现货 | | | 79970 | | | | | 进口仍处于小幅亏损状态。宏观方面，美国财长贝森特表示，关税收入"数额巨大"， | | | | | | | | 可能占美国 GDP 的 1%，未来十年关税收入有望达到 2.8 | | | 万亿美元，8 | 月 1 | 日是最后期 | | | 限，但不代表不可以再谈。另外，在解雇鲍威尔方面态度出现软化。美国总统特朗普表 | | | | | | | | 示，美国与日本、菲律宾、印尼等国接近达成协议。国内方面，央行表示国内房地产贷 | | | | | | | | 款增速回升，住户消费贷款保持增长。库存方面来看，LME 吨至 | | | 库存增加 | 2775 | 124850 | | 铜 | 吨；Comex 库存增加 379 吨至 221156 万吨；SHF ...

| 小期到日 | 24 | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 区域语院 语密度主题教 2025年7月23日 星期三 | | | | 同酸成 | Z0015979 | | 价格及基差 | | | | | | | | 现值 | 前值 | 日 涨跌 | 日涨跌幅 | 单位 | | SMM 1#电解铜 | 79755 | 79555 | +200.00 | 0.25% | 元/吨 | | SMM 1#电解铜升贴水 | 240 | 220 | +20.00 | | 元/吨 | | SMM 广东1#电解铜 | 79650 | 79245 | +405.00 | 0.51% | 元/吨 | | SMM 广东1#电解铜升贴水 | -10 | JE | -25.00 | - | 元/吨 | | SMM湿法铜 | 79550 | 79390 | +160.00 | 0.20% | 元/吨 | | SMM湿法铜开贴水 | 35 | 55 | -20.00 | - | 元/吨 | | 精废价差 | 1286 | 1479 | -192.77 | -13.04% | 元/肥 ...

Core Viewpoint - The company is proceeding with a plan to issue stocks to specific investors, which is expected to enhance its overall strength and profitability, providing stable long-term returns to shareholders [1]. Group 1: Compliance and Legal Framework - The company has confirmed that the stock issuance complies with relevant laws, regulations, and normative documents, including the Company Law and Securities Law of the People's Republic of China [1][2]. - The analysis report regarding the stock issuance has been conducted thoroughly, aligning with the company's actual situation and regulatory requirements [2]. Group 2: Fund Utilization and Strategic Alignment - The intended use of the raised funds aligns with national policies and the company's development needs, supporting its long-term goals and benefiting all shareholders [2]. - Previous fundraising efforts have adhered to regulations set by the China Securities Regulatory Commission and the Shenzhen Stock Exchange, ensuring transparency and proper management of funds [2]. Group 3: Commitment to Shareholder Returns - The company has proposed specific measures to ensure shareholder returns, with commitments from major stakeholders to fulfill these measures, in accordance with relevant government guidelines [3]. - The plan emphasizes sustainable development and the desire for reasonable returns for shareholders, particularly small and medium investors [3]. Group 4: Approval Process - The stock issuance plan requires approval from the company's shareholders and must be reviewed and registered by the Shenzhen Stock Exchange and the China Securities Regulatory Commission before implementation [3].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating The report does not explicitly provide an overall industry investment rating. However, it offers mid - term outlooks for each metal, such as "oscillating" for copper, "wait - and - see or short - term trading" for alumina, "oscillating in the short - term and potentially shorting on highs in the long - term" for aluminum, etc. [7][9][13] 2. Report's Core View The overall sentiment in the non - ferrous metals market is optimistic due to the spread of the "anti - involution" concept. Although the US tariff game continues and the macro - economic situation is complex, policy stimulus expectations and supply disruptions support metal prices. In the short - to - medium term, there are structural investment opportunities, and in the long - term, there are opportunities to short on highs for some metals with excess supply. [1] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1行情观点 - **Copper**: The upcoming non - ferrous metals growth - stabilization plan will support copper prices. The new plan will lead to the orderly exit of backward copper production capacity. Supply constraints remain, and inventory is low, but demand is weakening marginally, and US copper tariffs are unfavorable. Copper is expected to oscillate. [7][8][9] - **Alumina**: With scarce warehouse receipts and high "anti - involution" sentiment, alumina hit the daily limit. In the short - term, it has a strong foundation, but attention should be paid to the recovery rate and volume of warehouse receipts and new supply disruptions. It is advisable to wait and see or engage in short - term trading. [9][11][12] - **Aluminum**: Boosted by macro - sentiment, aluminum prices are oscillating strongly. In the short - term, prices are expected to oscillate within a range, and in the long - term, there are concerns about consumption, with a tendency to short on highs. [12][13] - **Aluminum Alloy**: Supported by macro - sentiment and cost, the market is oscillating strongly. In the short - term, ADC12 and ADC12 - A00 are oscillating at low levels, and there is room for an upward correction later, suitable for cross - variety arbitrage. [15] - **Zinc**: Boosted by macro - sentiment, zinc prices are short - term strong. However, in the long - term, supply is increasing while demand growth is limited, and prices are expected to be weakly oscillating. [16] - **Lead**: Boosted by macro - sentiment, lead prices are oscillating upward. As demand transitions from the off - season to the peak season, prices are expected to oscillate. [17][18][19] - **Nickel**: Due to non - ferrous metals supply - side reform, nickel prices are oscillating widely in the short - term. In the long - term, it is advisable to short on rebounds. [20][22][23] - **Stainless Steel**: Driven by the overall strength of the commodity sector, the stainless - steel market is rising. In the short - term, it may oscillate within a range, and attention should be paid to inventory and cost changes. [24][25] - **Tin**: With a further decline in LME inventory, tin prices have strong bottom support. Although there is a basis for price increases, the upward momentum is not strong, and prices are expected to oscillate, with increased volatility possible in August. [25][26] 3.2行情监测 The report lists various metals including copper, alumina, aluminum, zinc, lead, nickel, stainless steel, and tin under this section, but no specific monitoring content is provided in the given text. [28][42][55]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - Copper: Overnight LME copper rose 0.74% to $9,867/ton, SHFE copper rose 0.64% to 79,770 yuan/ton, and domestic spot imports remained slightly in the red. LME inventory decreased by 100 tons to 122,075 tons, Comex inventory increased by 477 tons to 220,775 tons, and SMM's Monday statistics showed that the national mainstream copper inventory decreased by 24,700 tons to 118,600 tons compared to last Thursday. Affected by the off - season, consumption was weak, but concerns about rising copper prices prompted some enterprises to replenish stocks in advance. With the weakening of the US dollar, the continuation of US - copper arbitrage, concerns about the implementation of a 50% tariff, and the impact of domestic anti - involution policies, the willingness to short copper prices weakened, and prices remained strong. Be cautious about shorting before late July and early August, and also pay attention to whether domestic anti - involution policies can be implemented [1]. - Aluminum: Alumina trended higher, with overnight AO2509 closing at 3,430 yuan/ton, up 3.56%, and positions increasing by 8,162 lots to 229,700 lots. Shanghai aluminum trended stronger, with overnight AL2509 closing at 20,860 yuan/ton, up 0.55%, and positions increasing by 1,595 lots to 318,500 lots. Aluminum alloy trended stronger, with the overnight main contract AD2511 closing at 20,250 yuan/ton, up 0.6%, and positions decreasing by 267 lots to 9,752 lots. SMM's alumina price rebounded to 3,199 yuan/ton, and the spot premium of aluminum ingots widened to 100 yuan/ton. Due to some alumina plants being in the stage of maintenance, the replacement of southwest electrolytic aluminum production capacity, increased raw material stocking, and low warehouse receipt levels, spot circulation tightened, and alumina remained strong. Although the volume of delivery into warehouses may gradually peak, it is difficult to short under the anti - involution effect. New orders for electrolytic aluminum processing decreased, and off - season inventory accumulation started, which was in a game with low near - month warehouse receipts, providing short - term support. The registration of aluminum alloy warehouse receipts is approaching, and the tight supply of scrap aluminum is stronger than the weak off - season demand logic, but the one - sided rebound space is limited. Attention can be paid to the AL - AD spread arbitrage opportunity when the refined - scrap spread narrows [1][2]. - Nickel: Overnight LME nickel rose 1.74% to $15,510/ton, and Shanghai nickel rose 1.52% to 123,540 yuan/ton. LME inventory increased by 300 tons to 207,876 tons, and domestic SHFE warehouse receipts increased by 551 tons to 22,111 tons. In June 2025, China's refined nickel exports were 10,142.83 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 3,831 tons and a year - on - year decrease of 208 tons; this month's net import of refined nickel was 6,867.321 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 15.74% and a year - on - year increase of 26.20%. The weekly nickel ore price was stable, the nickel iron price was at a three - year low, and the tender price was 900 yuan/nickel point; nickel salt transactions were calm, and prices declined slightly. For stainless steel, cost support weakened, weekly inventory decreased, and supply in July decreased slightly month - on - month, and the supply - demand pattern may be gradually repaired. For primary nickel, domestic weekly inventory increased month - on - month, and market pressure became apparent. Short - term prices will still fluctuate, but volatility may increase, with market sentiment, overseas policies, and fundamentals in a game [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Daily Data Monitoring - **Copper**: The price of flat - copper increased from 78,610 yuan/ton on July 18 to 79,510 yuan/ton on July 21, with a rise of 900 yuan/ton. The premium of flat - copper increased by 50 yuan/ton. The price of 1 bright scrap copper in Guangdong increased by 500 yuan/ton, and the refined - scrap spread increased by 405 yuan/ton. The prices of oxygen - free and low - oxygen copper rods in Shanghai increased by 1,000 yuan/ton and 900 yuan/ton respectively. The total inventory increased by 3,094 tons, and the social inventory (domestic + bonded area) decreased by 0.4 million tons [3]. - **Lead**: The average price of 1 lead in the Yangtze River increased by 130 yuan/ton, and the premium of 1 lead ingots in East China increased by 10 yuan/ton. The price of lead concentrate in some regions increased by 100 yuan/ton, and the processing fee remained unchanged. The inventory increased by 7,186 tons [3]. - **Aluminum**: The prices of aluminum in Wuxi and Nanhai increased by 220 yuan/ton and 190 yuan/ton respectively. The premium of aluminum decreased by 10 yuan/ton. The price of ADC12 aluminum alloy in South China increased by 100 yuan/ton. The total inventory increased by 5,625 tons, and the alumina social inventory decreased by 15,000 tons [4]. - **Nickel**: The price of Jinchuan nickel increased by 1,400 yuan/ton, and the price difference between Jinchuan nickel and Wuxi increased by 250 yuan/ton. The price of low - nickel iron remained unchanged. The nickel inventory increased by 230 tons, and the stainless - steel warehouse receipts decreased by 253 tons [4]. - **Zinc**: The main settlement price increased by 2.2%, and the SMM 0 and 1 spot prices increased by 500 yuan/ton. The domestic and imported zinc premium decreased by 10 yuan/ton. The inventory increased by 793 tons, and the LME inventory remained unchanged [5]. - **Tin**: The main settlement price increased by 0.6%, and the SMM spot price increased by 1,700 yuan/ton. The price of 60% and 40% tin concentrate decreased by 1,700 yuan/ton. The inventory increased by 51 tons, and the LME inventory remained unchanged [5]. 3.2 Chart Analysis - **Spot Premium**: Charts show the historical trends of spot premiums for copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, lead, and tin from 2019 - 2025 [7][9][12]. - **SHFE Near - Far Month Spread**: Charts display the historical trends of the spread between the first and second contracts for copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, lead, and tin from 2020 - 2025 [15][17][19]. - **LME Inventory**: Charts present the historical trends of LME inventory for copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, lead, and tin from 2019 - 2025 [21][23][25]. - **SHFE Inventory**: Charts show the historical trends of SHFE inventory for copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, lead, and tin from 2019 - 2025 [27][29][31]. - **Social Inventory**: Charts display the historical trends of social inventory for copper (including bonded areas), aluminum, nickel, zinc, stainless steel, and 300 - series stainless steel from 2019 - 2025 [33][35][37]. - **Smelting Profit**: Charts present the historical trends of copper concentrate index, rough copper processing fee, aluminum smelting profit, nickel - iron smelting cost, zinc smelting profit, and stainless - steel 304 smelting profit margin from 2019 - 2025 [40][42][44]. 3.3 Team Introduction - Zhan Dapeng, a master of science, is the director of non - ferrous research at Everbright Futures Research Institute, a senior precious metals researcher, a gold intermediate investment analyst, an excellent metal analyst of the Shanghai Futures Exchange, and the best industrial futures analyst of Futures Daily & Securities Times. He has more than a decade of commodity research experience, serves many leading spot enterprises, and has published dozens of professional articles in public newspapers and magazines. His team has won the awards for the best metal industry futures research team of Futures Daily & Securities Times in the 15th and 16th sessions and the title of excellent non - ferrous metal industry team of the Shanghai Futures Exchange in 2016 [47]. - Wang Heng, a master of finance from the University of Adelaide in Australia, is a non - ferrous researcher at Everbright Futures Research Institute, mainly focusing on aluminum and silicon research [47]. - Zhu Xi, a master of science from the University of Warwick in the UK, is a non - ferrous researcher at Everbright Futures Research Institute, mainly focusing on lithium and nickel research [48].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core Views of the Report - The domestic macro situation is favorable for non - ferrous metals this week. The Q2 GDP data is good, and the anti - involution policy on commodities has led to expectations of supply - side reform, which boosts the non - ferrous metals sector. For copper, the price has obvious support at the bottom, and attention should be paid to restocking opportunities around 7.6 - 7.7. For aluminum, the short - term fundamentals are okay, and attention should be paid to demand and reverse arbitrage opportunities. For zinc, short - term observation of the squeeze - out market is recommended, with long - term short - selling on rallies; long - short arbitrage between domestic and foreign markets can be held, and attention can be paid to positive arbitrage opportunities between months. For nickel, the short - term fundamentals are average, and attention can be paid to the opportunity of narrowing the nickel - stainless steel price ratio. For stainless steel, the fundamentals are weak, and attention should be paid to future policy trends. For lead, it is expected to fluctuate between 16800 - 17500 next week. For tin, short - term observation is recommended due to the coexistence of raw material supply disturbances and consumption decline expectations. For industrial silicon, if the start - up rate does not recover significantly in the short term, the futures price is expected to fluctuate. For lithium carbonate, the absolute price is expected to fluctuate, and a downward turning point requires significant inventory accumulation of warehouse receipts and spot goods [1][4][5][8][11][14][16] Group 3: Summary by Metals Copper - **Price and Inventory Changes**: From July 15 to July 21, the spot premium increased by 40, the scrap - refined copper spread increased by 440, the SHFE inventory remained unchanged, and the SHFE warehouse receipts decreased by 10062. The LME inventory decreased by 100, and the LME cancelled warrants decreased by 1500 [1] - **Market Analysis**: The domestic macro situation is favorable, the scrap - refined spread has shrunk significantly, the refined copper rod start - up rate has rebounded faster than expected, and the spot import window has opened. The market is less sensitive to tariff pricing, overseas liquidity is loose with a possible interest rate cut in the second half of the year, and the domestic downstream start - up rate is okay during the off - season. Attention should be paid to the possibility of a reversal in copper logistics [1] Aluminum - **Price and Inventory Changes**: From July 15 to July 21, the Shanghai aluminum ingot price increased by 190, the social inventory remained unchanged, and the LME inventory increased by 3725. The spot import profit decreased by 246.21, and the three - month import profit decreased by 72.82 [1] - **Market Analysis**: Supply has increased slightly, with imports from January to May providing an increment. The demand is expected to weaken seasonally in July, with flat supply and demand. The short - term fundamentals are okay, and attention should be paid to demand and reverse arbitrage opportunities in the context of low inventory [1] Zinc - **Price and Inventory Changes**: From July 15 to July 21, the Shanghai zinc ingot price increased by 500, the social inventory remained unchanged, and the SHFE inventory remained unchanged. The LME inventory decreased by 875, and the LME cancelled warrants increased by 38425 [4] - **Market Analysis**: The zinc price has fluctuated upwards this week. The domestic TC in July has increased compared to June, and new production capacity in the southwest and central China has been realized. Domestic demand has weakened seasonally, and overseas demand in Europe is weak. The domestic social inventory has increased, and the overseas LME inventory has decreased. There is an increased risk of short - squeezing in lead and zinc, and attention should be paid to the resonance between domestic and foreign markets [4] Nickel - **Price and Inventory Changes**: From July 15 to July 21, the Shanghai nickel spot price increased by 1850, the spot import return decreased by 222.41, and the LME C - 3M decreased by 12 [5] - **Market Analysis**: The pure nickel production remains at a high level, the demand is weak, and the premiums are stable. Both domestic and overseas nickel plate inventories have increased slightly. The tariff agreement between Indonesia and the US has no direct impact on pure nickel. The short - term fundamentals are average, and attention can be paid to the opportunity of narrowing the nickel - stainless steel price ratio [5] Stainless Steel - **Price and Inventory Changes**: From July 15 to July 21, the price of waste stainless steel increased by 200 [5] - **Market Analysis**: Steel mills have partially reduced production passively since late May. The demand is mainly for rigid needs, and some restocking has increased due to the macro environment. The prices of nickel iron and chrome iron remain stable. The inventories in Xijiao and Foshan have decreased slightly, and the exchange warehouse receipts have continued to decrease slightly. The fundamentals are weak, and attention should be paid to future policy trends [5] Lead - **Price and Inventory Changes**: From July 15 to July 21, the spot premium increased by 10, the social inventory situation is not clear, and the SHFE inventory remained unchanged. The LME inventory decreased by 3475, and the LME cancelled warrants increased by 500 [8] - **Market Analysis**: The lead price has slightly declined this week. The scrap volume is weak year - on - year, the waste battery supply is tight, and the refined lead production has increased from April to June but the concentrates are tightening. The battery finished product inventory is high, and the market's peak - season expectations have declined. It is expected that there will be inventory accumulation in July, and the price is expected to fluctuate between 16800 - 17500 next week [8] Tin - **Price and Inventory Changes**: From July 15 to July 21, the spot import return decreased by 1181.50, the spot export return increased by 817.65, the LME C - 3M increased by 9, and the LME inventory decreased by 50 [11] - **Market Analysis**: The tin price has fluctuated widely this week. The domestic smelting production may decline slightly in July - August due to low processing fees and upcoming maintenance. Overseas, there are signals of复产 in Wa State, and the import volume from Congo (Kinshasa) in June has exceeded expectations. The demand for solder is limited, and the growth rate of terminal electronics and photovoltaics is expected to decline. The domestic inventory has increased, and the LME inventory is at a low level but the inventory accumulation turning point is emerging. Short - term observation is recommended [11] Industrial Silicon - **Price and Inventory Changes**: From July 15 to July 21, the 421 Yunnan basis decreased by 565, the 421 Sichuan basis decreased by 515, the 553 East China basis decreased by 415, the 553 Tianjin basis decreased by 415, and the warehouse receipt quantity decreased by 252 [14] - **Market Analysis**: The start - up rate of leading enterprises has decreased again due to power station issues, and there is no expected resumption date. Yunnan and Sichuan have slightly resumed production, with Yunnan's start - up rate remaining low. The monthly production in July and later is expected to decline, and the supply - demand balance has shifted to inventory reduction. If the start - up rate does not recover significantly in the short term, the futures price is expected to fluctuate [14] Lithium Carbonate - **Price and Inventory Changes**: From July 15 to July 21, the SMM electric carbon price increased by 1350, the SMM industrial carbon price increased by 1300, the basis of the main contract decreased by 30, the basis of the near - month contract increased by 1350, and the warehouse receipt quantity decreased by 270 [16] - **Market Analysis**: The lithium carbonate futures price has continued to rise recently due to factors such as warehouse receipt games, supply - side news disturbances, and the repair of weak demand expectations. The basis has weakened slightly. After the simultaneous rise of futures and spot prices, downstream acceptance is low, and the actual transaction volume is small. The short - term supply and demand are both strong, and the inventory pressure in the intermediate links is gradually accumulating. The absolute price is expected to fluctuate, and a downward turning point requires significant inventory accumulation of warehouse receipts and spot goods [16]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints of the Report - For the overall non - ferrous metals, macro uncertainties remain high. Domestic policies boost the entire non - ferrous metals market in the short term, and prices are expected to run strongly in the short term. Follow - up attention should be paid to the development of news and downstream off - season conditions [9][10] - For aluminum, the short - term domestic macro situation significantly boosts the alumina price. Although the overall supply of alumina is relatively loose, the spot price in the southwest region is supported. The alumina spot price is expected to gradually peak, and attention should be paid to subsequent arrivals [9] - For zinc, domestic policies boost short - term prices, but medium - to - long - term supply increases still put pressure on the upper limit. Attention should be paid to the development of news [12][13] - For tin, it shows a short - term oscillatory and strong trend, but the downward pressure increases in the medium term [15] Summary by Directory 01 Non - ferrous Weekly Market Review - **Futures and Spot Prices**: From July 11 to July 18, 2025, the closing prices of copper, aluminum, zinc, nickel futures main contracts decreased, with weekly declines of 0.03%, 0.89%, 0.38%, and 0.73% respectively; the tin futures main contract price increased by 0.23%. Spot prices of copper, zinc, tin, and nickel decreased, with weekly declines of 0.04%, 0.34%, 0.28%, and 0.60% respectively; the aluminum spot price remained unchanged [7] 02 This Week's Non - ferrous Market Forecast Aluminum - **Logic**: Overseas tariff policies and personnel change rumors make risk assets cautious, while domestic "anti - involution" policies drive up industrial metals. Domestically, short - term macro factors boost alumina prices. Demand in the southwest region increases due to upcoming electrolytic aluminum capacity replacement projects, and supply may decrease due to upcoming maintenance. Nationally, alumina supply is relatively loose, and the increase in electrolytic aluminum plant inventories may put pressure on the alumina spot price [9] - **Viewpoint**: Prices are expected to run strongly in the short term, and follow - up attention should be paid to news and downstream off - season conditions [10] - **Follow - up Concerns**: Geopolitical crisis development, macro policy implementation, supply increase, and consumption release [11] Zinc - **Logic**: Domestic zinc ore processing fees remain stable, and imported zinc ore processing fees increase. The galvanizing start - up rate rises, and zinc ingot inventories increase. The die - casting zinc alloy start - up rate decreases, raw material inventories slightly increase, and finished product inventories decrease. Domestic inventories decrease overall [12] - **Viewpoint**: Domestic policies boost short - term prices, but medium - to - long - term supply increases put pressure on the upper limit. Attention should be paid to the development of news [13] - **Follow - up Concerns**: Macro policy implementation, mine production release, and consumption release [14] Tin - **Logic**: The resumption of production in Myanmar is slow, resulting in a shortage of raw materials for domestic smelters. Downstream demand is in the off - season, and orders in various sectors decline. Tin prices are supported at the bottom but face pressure at the top. An increase in supply may put pressure on prices [15] - **Viewpoint**: Short - term oscillatory and strong, with increasing downward pressure in the medium term [15] - **Follow - up Concerns**: Resumption of production in Congo (Kinshasa), Myanmar, and Malaysia; trade policies of various countries [15] 03 Variety Data Aluminum - **Bauxite**: Domestic high - grade bauxite prices in Henan remain unchanged week - on - week; domestic low - grade bauxite prices in Henan remain unchanged week - on - week; imported bauxite average prices decrease week - on - week. The port arrival volume increases week - on - week, and the departure volume decreases week - on - week [19][23] - **Alumina**: Domestic prices in Henan increase week - on - week, the full cost decreases week - on - week, and the profit in Shanxi increases week - on - week [26] - **Electrolytic Aluminum**: The total cost increases week - on - week, and the regional price difference decreases week - on - week. The start - up rates of some products change, and the inventory of electrolytic aluminum in different regions and forms shows different trends [28][32][38] - **Spot and Basis**: The basis of SMM A00 aluminum and SMM A00 aluminum in Foshan increases week - on - week, and the monthly spread of Shanghai aluminum shows different changes [44][47][48] Zinc - **Zinc Concentrate**: Domestic zinc concentrate prices decrease week - on - week, domestic zinc concentrate processing fees remain unchanged week - on - week, and imported zinc concentrate processing fees increase week - on - week. Enterprise production profits decrease week - on - week, import losses decrease week - on - week, and imported zinc concentrate inventories remain unchanged week - on - week [55][58] - **Refined Zinc**: Social inventories of zinc ingots increase week - on - week, bonded area inventories remain unchanged week - on - week, and inventories in the Shanghai Futures Exchange and LME increase week - on - week [61] - **Galvanizing**: Production decreases week - on - week, the start - up rate increases week - on - week, raw material inventories increase week - on - week, and finished product inventories increase week - on - week [64] - **Basis and Monthly Spread**: The basis of SMM 0 zinc ingot decreases week - on - week, and the monthly spread of Shanghai zinc increases week - on - week [67][71] Tin - **Refined Tin**: The combined output of Yunnan and Jiangxi provinces increases week - on - week, and the combined start - up rate also increases week - on - week [75] - **Tin Ingot Inventory**: SHFE tin ingot inventories and Chinese regional social inventories of tin ingots increase week - on - week [78] - **Tin Concentrate Processing Fees**: Processing fees in different regions remain unchanged week - on - week [80] - **Import Profit and Loss and Spot Price**: The import profit and loss level of tin ore increases week - on - week, and the average spot prices of tin concentrates in different regions decrease week - on - week [81][86]

Core Viewpoint - Shandong Hongchuang Aluminum Industry Holdings Co., Ltd. is undergoing an asset evaluation process for a share issuance to acquire assets, with a focus on the asset-based and income approaches for valuation, resulting in a significant increase in asset value [1][2]. Asset Evaluation Summary - The asset-based approach and income approach were used for the evaluation, with the asset-based approach concluding a total equity value of 63.518 billion yuan, an increase of 20.778 billion yuan, representing a growth rate of 48.62% [1][2]. - The evaluation identified 43 subsidiaries, with 39 wholly-owned, 2 controlled, and 2 affiliated companies, and assessed their net asset values based on ownership percentages [1][3]. - The primary sources of asset value increase were identified as inventory, fixed assets, construction in progress, and land use rights, with specific reasons for inventory valuation increases linked to profit considerations in semi-finished products [1][7]. Financial Metrics - The price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio for the target assets was reported at 3.49 times, significantly lower than the industry average of 10.61 times and comparable transaction average of 18.35 times; the price-to-book (P/B) ratio was 1.49 times, which is comparable to the industry average of 1.52 times [2][3]. Evaluation Methodology - The evaluation of inventory was based on the replacement cost method, with specific methodologies applied to different asset categories, including fixed assets and land use rights [8][10]. - Fixed assets were evaluated using the replacement cost method, with increases attributed to the economic lifespan exceeding accounting depreciation periods and rising construction costs [10][14]. - Land use rights were evaluated using market comparison, benchmark land price adjustment, and cost approach methods, reflecting an increase in value due to improved investment environments and infrastructure development in the region [24][25]. Specific Asset Increases - The total net asset evaluation increase was reported at 20.778 billion yuan, with significant contributions from fixed assets, land use rights, inventory, and construction in progress, accounting for 95.36% of the total increase [8][9]. - Specific increases included: - Inventory: 800 million yuan increase, 2.30% growth rate - Fixed assets: 6.71 billion yuan increase, 26.16% growth rate - Equipment: 8.68 billion yuan increase, 59.23% growth rate - Land use rights: 3.63 billion yuan increase, 65.83% growth rate [9][10][23].