Report Industry Investment Ratings - No relevant information provided. Core Views of the Reports Lithium - The lithium market has shown price increases across various lithium products. The futures market experienced wide - range fluctuations, with the main contract LC2605 falling 3.53% to 161,940. In the short - term, the market is expected to have wide - range oscillations in the 155,000 - 165,000 range. Attention should be paid to positive spread opportunities between months, and unilateral trading is advised to be on hold for the time being [1]. Nickel - The nickel price is expected to strengthen in the short - term, with the main contract's central reference in the 140,000 - 155,000 range. The trading is mainly influenced by macro factors and the rhythm of Indonesia's nickel ore RKAB quota, and the current tightening expectation of the ore end is dominant [3]. Stainless Steel - The stainless steel market is expected to have a relatively strong oscillation, with the main contract reference range of 13,800 - 14,500 yuan/ton. The market is influenced by strong cost support from the raw material end and weak demand, and future trends depend on raw material news and downstream inventory - building [6]. Tin - The tin price is affected by market sentiment and shows significant short - term fluctuations. It is recommended to be cautious in futures operations and consider using options for participation [8]. Aluminum and Alumina - Alumina prices are expected to have wide - range oscillations around the industry's cash cost line, with the main contract reference range of 2,600 - 2,950 yuan/ton. The aluminum price is likely to maintain a high - level wide - range oscillation, with the main contract operating range of 23,000 - 25,000 yuan/ton [9]. Aluminum Alloy - The cast aluminum alloy market is expected to have high - level range oscillations, with the main contract reference range of 22,000 - 24,000 yuan/ton. Attention should be paid to raw material supply stability, downstream pre - holiday inventory - building, and the impact of high prices on demand [11]. Copper - The medium - and long - term fundamentals of copper are still good. In the short - term, the price trend is strong, mainly due to the risk of global inventory structural imbalance and the risk premium of metal supply concerns. The price is expected to remain strong in the short - term, with core attention on CL premium changes and LME inventory changes, and support at 99,000 - 100,000 [12]. Zinc - The zinc price is expected to oscillate in the short - term, with support at around 24,000. Attention should be paid to zinc ore TC and refined zinc inventory changes [15]. Industrial Silicon - The industrial silicon is expected to maintain a low - level oscillation, with the main price fluctuation range of 8,000 - 9,000 yuan/ton. Attention should be paid to demand - side production changes [18]. Polysilicon - The polysilicon price is expected to have support at the 48,000 yuan/ton level. In the cooling cycle, it is recommended to wait and see, and pay attention to future production cuts and downstream demand recovery [19]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Lithium Price and Basis - SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate average price rose to 163,000 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 2.19%. Other lithium products also showed price increases, and the basis of SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate changed significantly [1]. Fundamental Data - In December, lithium carbonate production increased, while demand decreased. The inventory of lithium carbonate decreased overall, with a significant reduction in smelter inventory [1]. Nickel Price and Basis - The prices of various nickel products increased, and the import profit and loss of nickel futures and the LME 0 - 3 spread changed. The cost of producing electrolytic nickel from different raw materials also had corresponding changes [3]. Supply and Demand and Inventory - China's refined nickel production decreased, while imports increased. The inventory of SHFE and social inventory increased, while LME inventory decreased slightly [3]. Stainless Steel Price and Basis - The spot price of stainless steel was relatively stable, and the futures - spot price difference decreased. The prices of raw materials such as nickel ore and high - nickel pig iron increased slightly [6]. Fundamental Data - China's 300 - series stainless steel production decreased, while exports increased. The social inventory of 300 - series stainless steel decreased [6]. Tin Spot Price and Basis - The spot price of tin increased significantly, and the LME 0 - 3 spread also increased [8]. Fundamental Data - In November, tin ore imports increased, and in December, the production of refined tin was basically stable. The import and export volumes of refined tin increased, and the inventory decreased [8]. Aluminum and Alumina Price and Spread - The price of aluminum increased, and the price of alumina decreased slightly. The import profit and loss of electrolytic aluminum and alumina changed, and the monthly spread of aluminum also had corresponding adjustments [9]. Fundamental Data - In December, the production of alumina decreased, while the production of electrolytic aluminum increased. The inventory of electrolytic aluminum increased, and the inventory of alumina also increased [9]. Aluminum Alloy Price and Spread - The price of SMM aluminum alloy ADC12 increased, and the refined - scrap price difference of various aluminum alloys also increased [11]. Fundamental Data - In December, the production of recycled aluminum alloy ingots decreased, and the operating rates of recycled and primary aluminum alloy enterprises decreased. The social inventory of recycled aluminum alloy decreased slightly [11]. Copper Price and Basis - The price of SMM 1 electrolytic copper increased, and the refined - scrap price difference increased significantly. The import profit and loss and monthly spread of copper also changed [12]. Fundamental Data - In December, the production of electrolytic copper increased, while imports decreased. The inventory of various copper products increased [12]. Zinc Price and Spread - The price of SMM 0 zinc ingot increased, and the import profit and loss and monthly spread of zinc changed [15]. Fundamental Data - In December, the production of refined zinc decreased, and exports increased significantly. The operating rates of downstream zinc - related industries were mixed, and the inventory increased [15]. Industrial Silicon Spot Price and Basis - The spot price of industrial silicon was stable, and the basis decreased. The monthly spread of the futures contract also changed [18]. Fundamental Data - The national production of industrial silicon decreased, and the production in different regions had different trends. The production of downstream products such as organic silicon and polysilicon also changed, and the inventory decreased slightly [18]. Polysilicon Spot Price, Futures Price, and Spread - The polysilicon spot price was stable, the futures price was weakly oscillating, and the monthly spread of the futures contract changed [19]. Fundamental Data - The weekly production of polysilicon decreased slightly, and the monthly production increased slightly. The import and export volumes of polysilicon and silicon wafers changed, and the inventory of polysilicon decreased slightly while the silicon wafer inventory increased [19].

Copper - Overnight LME copper showed a rebound after initial declines, with domestic refined copper imports remaining unprofitable. The macroeconomic data from the US indicates a 0.6% month-on-month increase in retail sales for November, surpassing the expected 0.5%, reflecting consumer resilience [12] - The US NAR reported that December's existing home sales reached an annualized 4.35 million units, the highest since February 2023, exceeding expectations of 4.22 million and the previous value of 4.13 million [12] - LME copper inventory increased by 75 tons to 141,625 tons, while Comex inventory rose by 3,710 tons to 484,066 tons. SHFE copper warehouse receipts increased by 27,212 tons to 149,339 tons [12] - Copper prices are rising again, but downstream enterprises are cautious in purchasing, focusing on essential needs. The expanding import losses and the gradually opening export window may benefit first-quarter export demand [12] - The US Supreme Court did not rule on the Trump tariff policy, temporarily alleviating market concerns about tariffs, which helped stabilize copper prices [12] Nickel & Stainless Steel - LME nickel rose by 6.73% to $18,785 per ton, while SHFE nickel increased by 5.62% to 148,930 yuan per ton. LME inventory increased by 510 tons to 284,658 tons, and SHFE warehouse receipts rose by 836 tons to 40,272 tons [13] - The Indonesian Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources announced a reduction in the nickel ore production target for 2026 from 364 million tons to approximately 250-260 million tons [13] - The rapid price increase has led to a significant rise in primary nickel production, up 18.5% month-on-month to 37,200 tons, which may exert pressure on market prices [13][5] - The tightening of nickel ore quotas in Indonesia is expected to create a global supply-demand gap for primary nickel, potentially driving prices higher [5] Aluminum & Alumina - Overnight alumina prices showed a slight decline, with AO2605 settling at 2,788 yuan per ton, down 0.25%. SHFE aluminum also experienced a decline, with AL2603 at 24,665 yuan per ton, down 0.32% [14] - The SMM alumina price fell to 2,654 yuan per ton, while aluminum ingot spot premiums expanded to 80 yuan per ton [14] - High inventory levels at alumina plants have led to low premium procurement sentiment, continuing to pressure costs [14] - The end of environmental controls and the cancellation of export tax rebates may lead to increased exports, while aluminum ingot inventory pressure is easing [14] Industrial Silicon & Polysilicon - Industrial silicon prices showed a slight increase, with the main contract at 8,755 yuan per ton, up 0.34%. The reference price for industrial silicon remained stable at 9,628 yuan per ton [15] - Polysilicon prices experienced a decline, with the main contract at 48,945 yuan per ton, down 1.46% [15] - The Xinjiang region's major factories are entering maintenance periods, leading to increased inventory transfer to intermediate channels and rising hidden inventories [15] - The market is experiencing a cooling of speculative sentiment, with limited upside price potential for polysilicon [15] Lithium Carbonate - Lithium carbonate futures fell by 3.53% to 161,940 yuan per ton, while spot prices for battery-grade lithium carbonate increased by 3,500 yuan to 163,000 yuan per ton [16] - Weekly production of lithium increased by 115 tons to 22,535 tons, with spodumene and lithium mica production also rising [16] - Social inventory of lithium carbonate increased by 337 tons to 109,942 tons, with downstream inventory decreasing [16] - Despite rising raw material prices potentially suppressing terminal demand, the overall market sentiment remains bullish on lithium prices due to low downstream inventory and speculative demand [16]

Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the content. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The expectation of pre - exporting has resurfaced, and the expectation of supply - demand improvement has pushed up base metals. In the short - to - medium term, the logic of weak US dollar expectation and supply disruption concerns remains unchanged. There are long opportunities in copper, aluminum, and tin, and low - buying opportunities in nickel. In the long term, there are still expectations of potential incremental stimulus policies in China, and the supply of copper, aluminum, and tin may tighten, so their prices are expected to rise [3]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Copper - **Viewpoint**: Supply disruptions continue to increase, and copper prices remain high. - **Analysis**: The US CPI in December showed certain trends; the 2026 copper concentrate long - term processing fee was set at 0; China's electrolytic copper production increased in December; spot copper had a certain premium; there were strikes at a Chilean copper mine and a delay in the second - phase project of a copper mine in Ecuador. - **Logic**: Macro - wise, the Fed may continue to be loose, supporting copper prices. On the supply - demand side, copper mine supply is tightening, and refined copper supply is expected to contract. Although demand is currently weak, future supply - demand is expected to be tight. - **Outlook**: Copper prices are expected to be volatile and bullish [8][9]. Alumina - **Viewpoint**: The fundamentals are weak, and alumina prices are under pressure and fluctuating. - **Analysis**: Alumina prices in different regions showed changes on January 14, and the alumina warehouse receipts increased. - **Logic**: High - cost production capacity has some fluctuations, but the supply contraction is insufficient. The raw material prices are weak, and the cost support is limited. However, as the valuation is low, price fluctuations may increase. - **Outlook**: Alumina prices are expected to maintain a volatile trend [10]. Aluminum - **Viewpoint**: Inventory continues to accumulate, and aluminum prices fluctuate at high levels. - **Analysis**: Aluminum prices and premiums changed on January 14; domestic aluminum ingot and aluminum rod inventories increased; the electrolytic aluminum warehouse receipts on the SHFE increased; the aluminum ingot premium in Japan rose; China's aluminum exports in December 2025 had a certain growth rate. - **Logic**: Macro - wise, the expectation is positive. On the supply side, there are constraints on medium - term supply. On the demand side, high prices suppress demand, and inventory accumulates. - **Outlook**: In the short term, aluminum prices are expected to be volatile and bullish. In the medium term, the supply - demand may turn to shortage, and the price center may rise [13][14]. Aluminum Alloy - **Viewpoint**: Cost support continues, and the market fluctuates at high levels. - **Analysis**: The prices of aluminum alloy and related products changed on January 14; an Indonesian electrolytic aluminum project started production. - **Logic**: Cost support is strong due to tight scrap aluminum supply. Supply is restricted by raw materials and policies, and demand may improve marginally. Inventory shows different trends in different types. - **Outlook**: In the short and medium terms, prices are expected to be volatile and bullish [15]. Zinc - **Viewpoint**: The supply - demand fundamentals are still resilient, and zinc prices fluctuate at high levels. - **Analysis**: Spot zinc premiums in different regions were reported on January 14; zinc inventory decreased slightly; a zinc mine in Australia faced production pressure due to railway damage. - **Logic**: Macro - wise, the expectation is stable. The zinc ore supply is tight in the short term, and demand is in the off - season. In the short term, zinc prices may remain high and volatile, while in the long term, there is a risk of decline. - **Outlook**: Zinc prices are expected to be volatile [18][19]. Lead - **Viewpoint**: Warehouse receipts increased significantly, and the upside space for lead prices is limited. - **Analysis**: The prices of waste electric vehicle batteries and lead ingots changed on January 14; lead inventory increased; lead consumption was weak. - **Logic**: The spot premium increased, the supply increased as smelters resumed production, and the demand was seasonally weak. - **Outlook**: Lead prices are expected to be volatile [20][21]. Nickel - **Viewpoint**: Policy expectations compete with weak reality, and nickel prices rise again. - **Analysis**: Nickel warehouse receipts and inventory increased on January 14; Indonesia may approve a certain amount of nickel ore production quota in 2026, and the domestic trade ore price in Indonesia is expected to rise. - **Logic**: The supply pressure remains, demand is in the off - season, and the policy on nickel ore quotas is uncertain. - **Outlook**: Nickel prices are expected to be volatile, and attention should be paid to policy changes in Indonesia [22][23]. Stainless Steel - **Viewpoint**: Ferronickel prices continue to rise, and the stainless - steel market surges. - **Analysis**: Stainless - steel warehouse receipts decreased; spot stainless - steel had a certain premium; ferronickel prices rose; the domestic trade ore price in Indonesia is expected to rise. - **Logic**: Cost support exists, production may increase slightly in January, but demand is weak, and inventory may accumulate. - **Outlook**: Stainless - steel prices are expected to be volatile, and attention should be paid to policy changes in Indonesia [24]. Tin - **Viewpoint**: Supply disruptions continue, and tin prices soar. - **Analysis**: Tin warehouse receipts and positions increased on January 14; the spot tin price rose significantly. - **Logic**: Supply is restricted in multiple areas, such as Myanmar, Indonesia, and Africa. Demand is expected to increase due to the economic environment and the development of related industries. - **Outlook**: Tin prices are expected to be volatile and bullish [25][26]. Market Monitoring - Index - **Comprehensive Index**: The commodity 20 index was 2809.04, up 1.08%; the industrial products index was 2362.72, up 0.62%; the PPI commodity index was 1466.29, up 0.70%. - **Sector Index**: The non - ferrous metal index on January 14 was 2851.75, with a daily increase of 1.52%, a 5 - day increase of 2.83%, a 1 - month increase of 11.72%, and a year - to - date increase of 6.17% [152][153].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report Copper - Overnight, London copper rose and then fell, while domestic copper fluctuated widely. The import of refined copper in China remained at a loss. The US core inflation level slowed down compared to expectations, which laid the groundwork for the Fed to cut interest rates in the future. However, the probability of maintaining the current interest rate in January was still relatively high. In China, the adjustment of export tax rebates for products such as photovoltaic cells might lead to a rush to export in the first quarter. LME, Comex, SHFE copper warehouse receipts, and BC copper inventories all increased. As copper prices rose again, downstream enterprises became more cautious in purchasing, and the trading was mainly based on rigid demand. The expansion of import losses and the opening of the export window were beneficial to export demand in the first quarter. The optimistic sentiment in the precious metal market continued to spread to the non - ferrous market. Although the short - term fundamentals weakened, the capital sentiment remained strong, and the expectation of a rush to export in the first quarter also supported copper prices. It was recommended to maintain the idea of buying on dips but not to chase high prices [1]. Aluminum - Overnight, alumina fluctuated weakly, while Shanghai aluminum and aluminum alloy fluctuated strongly. The price of SMM alumina declined, and the spot discount of aluminum ingots narrowed. The ore reserves of alumina plants were high, and the short - term premium procurement sentiment was low, leading to a continuous decline in costs. After the end of environmental control, alumina production continued to increase, and with the addition of imports, the inventories of manufacturers and downstream continued to accumulate, and the logic of spot convergence to futures continued. Due to the reappearance of warehousing profits in Xinjiang, warehouse receipts might put new pressure on the market. After the end of environmental control and the cancellation of export tax rebates, photovoltaic enterprises rushed to export, and the operating rate of the processing end was expected to remain resilient, slightly alleviating the pressure of aluminum ingot inventory accumulation. The divergence between macro and micro gradually converged, and the over - heating boost was rationally corrected. Aluminum prices continued to be at a high level, and the spot discount continued to narrow [1][2]. Nickel - Overnight, LME nickel fell by 2.63%, and Shanghai nickel fell by 0.33%. LME and SHFE nickel inventories decreased. Indonesia would adjust its nickel quota according to industry demand to support the price of its mineral products. From the fundamental perspective, as prices rose rapidly, the prices of products at all links in the industrial chain strengthened, and the production of primary nickel increased by 18.5% month - on - month to 37,200 tons. Hedging demand might put some pressure on the market price. The Indonesian policy stimulated the rise of nickel prices. Attention should be paid to the actual implementation and market sentiment. It was recommended to pay attention to the opportunity of buying on dips near the cost line [2]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Research Views - **Copper**: The US core inflation slowed down, and there was a rush - to - export expectation in the first quarter in China. Inventories increased, downstream purchasing was cautious, and the export window opened. It was recommended to buy on dips [1]. - **Aluminum**: Alumina prices fell, aluminum prices rose. Cost decreased, inventory accumulated, and the processing end was expected to be resilient. Aluminum prices remained high [1][2]. - **Nickel**: Prices fell, inventories decreased. Indonesia adjusted the quota policy, primary nickel production increased, and it was recommended to buy on dips [2]. Daily Data Monitoring - **Copper**: The price of flat - water copper decreased by 710 yuan/ton, and the inventory of LME, Comex, and SHFE increased. The active contract import loss decreased by 260 yuan/ton [1][3]. - **Lead**: The average price of 1 lead decreased by 100 - 15 yuan/ton, and the inventory of the Shanghai Futures Exchange increased [3]. - **Aluminum**: The prices of Wuxi and Nanhai decreased, and the inventory of the Shanghai Futures Exchange and social inventory increased [4]. - **Nickel**: The price of Jinchuan nickel decreased by 1700 yuan/ton, and the inventory of the Shanghai Futures Exchange decreased [4]. - **Zinc**: The main settlement price increased by 1.1%, and the social inventory decreased by 0.19 million tons [6]. - **Tin**: The main settlement price increased by 5.0%, and the inventory of the Shanghai Futures Exchange decreased by 1001 tons [6]. Chart Analysis - **Spot Premium**: Charts show the historical trends of spot premiums of copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, lead, and tin from 2019 - 2026 [7][8][9]. - **SHFE Near - Far Month Spread**: Charts show the historical trends of the spread between the first and second contracts of copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, lead, and tin from 2019 - 2026 [13][17][18]. - **LME Inventory**: Charts show the historical trends of LME inventories of copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, lead, and tin from 2019 - 2026 [20][22][24]. - **SHFE Inventory**: Charts show the historical trends of SHFE inventories of copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, lead, and tin from 2019 - 2026 [26][28][30]. - **Social Inventory**: Charts show the historical trends of social inventories of copper (including bonded areas), aluminum, nickel, zinc, stainless steel, and 300 - series from 2019 - 2026 [32][34][36]. - **Smelting Profit**: Charts show the historical trends of copper concentrate index, rough copper processing fee, aluminum smelting profit, nickel - iron smelting cost, zinc smelting profit, and stainless - steel 304 smelting profit margin from 2019 - 2026 [39][41][43]. Team Introduction - **Zhan Dapeng**: A science master, currently the director of non - ferrous research at Everbright Futures Research Institute, a senior researcher in precious metals, and a gold intermediate investment analyst. He has more than a decade of experience in commodity research and has won many industry awards [46]. - **Wang Heng**: A finance master from the University of Adelaide, Australia. He is mainly responsible for the research of aluminum and silicon, and has won relevant industry awards [46]. - **Zhu Xi**: A science master from the University of Warwick, UK. He focuses on the research of lithium and nickel, and has won relevant industry awards [47].

Core Insights - The Saudi 500,000-ton electrolytic aluminum project led by Shandong Innovation Group has commenced shipping, marking a significant phase in its construction [1][3] - The project highlights a new model of collaboration between Chinese mining companies and Middle Eastern resources, leveraging low electricity costs in Saudi Arabia to reduce production costs significantly [3] Group 1: Project Overview - The shipment of 29 domestic concrete equipment from Changshu Port to Saudi Arabia signifies the project's advancement into a practical construction phase [1] - The project aims to capitalize on Saudi Arabia's electricity price of only $0.03 per kilowatt-hour, which is one-fifth of the domestic rate, allowing for a production cost of electrolytic aluminum below $1,800 per ton compared to approximately $2,200 per ton domestically [3] Group 2: Strategic Implications - This initiative represents a shift from traditional "solo" approaches of Chinese mining companies to a comprehensive model that includes resource acquisition, equipment export, and technology transfer [3] - The project is expected to boost China's electrolytic aluminum equipment exports, which exceeded 8 billion yuan in 2025, by integrating factory construction with equipment sales [3]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - Copper prices have significantly increased recently, driven by the expected US refined copper tariff leading to inventory transfer and investment fund inflows. The future performance of copper prices will depend on terminal demand, US restocking, and China's demand recovery. It is expected to accumulate inventory steeply before the Spring Festival and de - inventory quickly after the Spring Festival [1] - Aluminum price changes are mainly dominated by expected trading, with amplified price fluctuations. Domestic apparent demand is weaker than previously expected, but strong expectations can support the current high price [1][2] - The zinc supply side is facing a tightening situation, while domestic demand is seasonally weak. The price center may be difficult to decline deeply, and it is recommended to wait and see for unilateral trading, pay attention to reverse arbitrage opportunities between domestic and overseas markets, and positive arbitrage opportunities in the monthly spread [5] - The short - term fundamental situation of nickel is weak, with the supply slightly decreasing, overall weak demand, and inventory accumulation in the LME. The short - term policy and fundamentals are in a game state [6][7] - The stainless - steel market has high - level production, mainly rigid demand, and slightly decreasing inventory. The price is mainly driven by nickel price changes recently [11] - Lead prices are oscillating at a high level following the macro trend. The supply - demand mismatch has been alleviated, but the spot is still relatively tight, and it is recommended to pay attention to the risk of low warehouse receipts [12] - Tin prices are rising, with supply disturbances in major producing countries and strong downstream restocking demand. In the short term, the upward driving force is strong, and in the long term, demand determines the upside space [13] - The supply and demand of industrial silicon are approaching balance, with short - term prices expected to oscillate with costs and long - term prices expected to oscillate at the cycle bottom [16] - Lithium prices are rising, driven by potential disturbances in the resource end, increased processing fees, and macro - sentiment. The raw material supply is tight, and downstream procurement is cautious [19] Group 3: Summary by Metal Copper - **Price and Inventory Changes**: From January 7th to 13th, the spot premium of Shanghai copper changed by 125, the waste - refined copper price difference decreased by 438, the SHFE inventory remained unchanged, and the LME inventory increased by 4325 tons. The spot import profit decreased by 547.20 [1] - **Market Outlook**: The price increase was due to the expected US tariff and investment inflows. Future performance depends on demand and restocking [1] Aluminum - **Price and Inventory Changes**: From January 7th to 13th, the prices of Shanghai, Yangtze River, and Guangdong aluminum ingots decreased, the domestic alumina price decreased by 3, and the inventory in the aluminum exchange remained unchanged [1] - **Market Outlook**: Price changes are dominated by expected trading, with weak domestic apparent demand and strong expectations supporting the high price [1][2] Zinc - **Price and Inventory Changes**: From January 7th to 13th, the spot premium decreased by 10, the prices of Shanghai, Tianjin, and Guangdong zinc ingots increased, and the LME zinc inventory increased by 100 tons. The futures import profit decreased by 78.46 [5] - **Supply and Demand Situation**: The supply side is tightening, domestic demand is seasonally weak, and overseas demand in the US is rising. It is recommended to wait and see for unilateral trading, pay attention to reverse arbitrage and positive arbitrage opportunities [5] Nickel - **Price and Inventory Changes**: From January 7th to 13th, the Shanghai nickel spot price decreased by 1200, the spot import return changed, and the LME inventory decreased by 414 tons [6] - **Market Outlook**: Short - term fundamentals are weak, with supply slightly decreasing, weak demand, and inventory accumulation in the LME. Policy and fundamentals are in a game state [6][7] Stainless Steel - **Price and Inventory Changes**: From January 7th to 13th, the prices of 304 cold - rolled, 304 hot - rolled, 201 cold - rolled, 430 cold - rolled, and waste stainless steel remained unchanged. The inventory is at a high level with a slight decrease [11] - **Market Outlook**: High - level production, mainly rigid demand, and price is mainly driven by nickel price [11] Lead - **Price and Inventory Changes**: From January 7th to 13th, the spot premium decreased by 10, the LME inventory decreased by 2525 tons, and the five - region social inventory increased to 19,600 tons [12] - **Market Outlook**: Prices are oscillating at a high level, supply - demand mismatch has been alleviated, but the spot is still tight. Pay attention to the risk of low warehouse receipts [12] Tin - **Price and Inventory Changes**: From January 7th to 13th, the tin price center increased, the LME inventory increased by 25 tons [12][13] - **Market Outlook**: Supply disturbances exist in major producing countries, downstream restocking demand is strong. Short - term upward driving force is strong, and long - term demand determines upside space [13] Industrial Silicon - **Price and Inventory Changes**: From January 7th to 13th, the basis of 421 in Yunnan and Sichuan and 553 in East China and Tianjin increased by 120, and the warehouse receipt quantity increased by 240 [16] - **Market Outlook**: Supply and demand are approaching balance, short - term prices oscillate with costs, and long - term prices oscillate at the cycle bottom [16] Lithium Carbonate - **Price and Inventory Changes**: From January 7th to 13th, the SMM electric and industrial lithium carbonate prices increased by 7500, the warehouse receipt quantity increased by 928 [19] - **Market Outlook**: Lithium prices are rising due to resource - end disturbances, increased processing fees, and macro - sentiment. Raw material supply is tight, and downstream procurement is cautious [19]

Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoints - The expectation of pre - export surges and the anticipation of improved supply - demand dynamics are driving up the prices of base metals. In the short and medium term, the logic of a weak US dollar expectation and concerns about supply disruptions remains unchanged. There are opportunities to buy copper, aluminum, and tin at low prices. In the long term, the potential for incremental stimulus policies in China and supply disruptions in copper, aluminum, and tin suggest a positive outlook for their prices [2]. Summary by Variety Copper - **Viewpoint**: Supply disruptions are increasing, and copper prices are expected to remain high and fluctuate strongly. - **Analysis**: The US CPI in December 2026 was in line with expectations. The 2026 copper concentrate long - term processing fee was set at a record low of $0/ton and $0 cents/pound. In December, China's electrolytic copper production increased both month - on - month and year - on - year. The Mantoverde copper mine in Chile will go on strike, and the second - phase project of the Mirador copper mine in Ecuador has been postponed. - **Logic**: The Fed may continue its loose policy, which supports copper prices. Copper supply is tightening, and the supply of refined copper is expected to contract. Although demand is currently weak, the long - term supply - demand outlook is optimistic [7][8]. Alumina - **Viewpoint**: The fundamentals are weak, and alumina prices are under pressure and expected to fluctuate. - **Analysis**: On January 13, the alumina spot price in the north was flat, while the national weighted index and prices in some regions declined. The alumina warehouse receipts increased. - **Logic**: High - cost production capacity has some fluctuations, but the supply reduction is insufficient. The market is in a strong inventory accumulation trend, and the cost support is limited. However, as the valuation is in a low range, price fluctuations may increase [9]. Aluminum - **Viewpoint**: Inventory continues to accumulate, and aluminum prices are expected to remain high and fluctuate strongly. - **Analysis**: On January 13, the average price of SMM AOO aluminum decreased slightly, and the premium increased. The inventory of aluminum ingots and aluminum rods in major consumption areas increased. The electrolytic aluminum warehouse receipts on the SHFE increased. Some enterprises are promoting the "aluminum for copper" standard, and a company is transferring its production capacity. - **Logic**: The US interest - rate cut expectation remains, and China's "two new" policies are continuing. The supply is constrained in the medium term, and although high prices have suppressed demand in the short term, the overall supply - demand outlook is positive [13][14]. Aluminum Alloy - **Viewpoint**: Cost support continues, and the price is expected to remain high and fluctuate strongly. - **Analysis**: On January 13, the price of Baotai ADC12 was flat. An Indonesian electrolytic aluminum project has started production. - **Logic**: The supply of scrap aluminum is tight, providing strong cost support. The supply is constrained by raw material shortages and policy factors, while the demand is expected to improve with the implementation of the automobile trade - in policy. The inventory shows a mixed trend [15][16]. Zinc - **Viewpoint**: The supply - demand fundamentals are resilient, and zinc prices are expected to remain high and fluctuate. - **Analysis**: On January 13, the spot premiums of zinc in different regions varied. The SMM seven - region zinc ingot inventory decreased slightly. The Mount Isa railway line in Australia is damaged, affecting zinc concentrate supply. - **Logic**: The macro - environment is relatively stable. The zinc ore supply is short - term tight, and the demand is in the off - season. In the short term, zinc prices may remain high, but there is a downward risk in the long term [17][20]. Lead - **Viewpoint**: The sentiment in the non - ferrous sector has cooled, and social inventory has accumulated, leading to a downward trend in lead prices. - **Analysis**: On January 13, the price of waste electric vehicle batteries was stable, and the price of SMM 1 lead ingots decreased. The social inventory of lead ingots and the SHFE lead warehouse receipts increased. - **Logic**: The spot premium and the price difference between primary and recycled lead are stable. The supply is increasing as smelters resume production, while the demand is weakening, especially in the electric bicycle sector [22]. Nickel - **Viewpoint**: Policy expectations are conflicting with the weak reality, and nickel prices have回调. - **Analysis**: On January 13, the SHFE nickel warehouse receipts and LME nickel inventory decreased. SMM predicts a significant increase in the HPM of Indonesian domestic - trade nickel ore in the second half of January. - **Logic**: The supply of nickel is under pressure, and the demand is in the off - season. The policy on Indonesian nickel ore quotas is uncertain, which affects the market outlook [23][24]. Stainless Steel - **Viewpoint**: The decline in nickel prices has led to a downward trend in the stainless - steel market. - **Analysis**: The stainless - steel futures warehouse receipts decreased. The spot price of Foshan Hongwang 304 has a certain premium. The average price of high - nickel pig iron increased, and the HPM of Indonesian domestic - trade nickel ore is expected to rise. - **Logic**: The cost of stainless steel has some support. Although the production in January may increase slightly, the terminal demand is cautious. The inventory may accumulate in the off - season [25]. Tin - **Viewpoint**: Supply constraints are intensifying, and tin prices are expected to be strong. - **Analysis**: On January 13, the LME tin warehouse receipts increased, while the SHFE tin warehouse receipts decreased. The average price of Shanghai Non - ferrous Metals Network 1 tin ingots increased. - **Logic**: Supply disruptions in Myanmar, Indonesia, and Africa are limiting tin production. The demand for tin is increasing in the semiconductor, photovoltaic, and new - energy vehicle sectors, and the low inventory in the industry chain also supports prices [26][27]. Market Index Monitoring - On January 13, 2026, the comprehensive index of CITICS Futures commodities decreased by 0.30% to 2425.27, the commodity 20 index decreased by 0.28% to 2779.12, and the industrial products index decreased by 0.52% to 2348.14. - The non - ferrous metals index on January 13 was 2809.16, with a daily decline of 1.33%, a 5 - day decline of 1.30%, a 1 - month increase of 8.87%, and a year - to - date increase of 4.59% [150][152].

席君安朝贸客户中的专业投资者，请勿润强、订阅或接收任何相关信息。本内容不拘成具体业务的排价，亦不应被视为任何规资、法律、会计或税务建议，且本公司不会因素收入收到 体内容而规具为客户。本内容的信息来源于公开资料，本公司对这些信息的准朝性、完整性及未来变更的可能往不作任何保证。请您根据自身的风险承受微力作出投资决定并自主承担 投资风险、不应凭借本内容进行具体操作、本公司不对目使用本内容而造成的损失承担任何责任、除非劳有说职。本公司拥有本内容的组织和/流英地相关知识产权。 法坚本公司事先 书面许可。任何单位或个人不得以任何方式复制、转载、引用、刊登、发表、发行、修改、翻译此报告的全部或部分内容。 | 有色及贵金属日度数据简报 | 2026/1/13 | 李先飞 | 王蒙 | 刘雨萱 | Z0002529 | Z0012691 | Z0020476 | | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 国泰君安期货研究所有 | jixia ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - The expectation of pre - export surges and the anticipation of improved supply - demand dynamics are driving up the prices of base metals. In the short and medium term, the logic of weak US dollar expectation and supply disruption concerns remains unchanged. There are opportunities to buy copper, aluminum, and tin at low prices. In the long term, there are expectations of potential incremental stimulus policies in China, and due to supply disruptions, the supply - demand situation for copper, aluminum, and tin is expected to tighten, with a positive outlook on their prices [2]. - For different metals: - Copper: Supply disruptions are increasing, and copper prices will continue to trade at high levels [3][8]. - Alumina: The fundamentals are weak, and alumina prices are under pressure and will fluctuate [3][9]. - Aluminum: With an optimistic macro - sentiment, aluminum prices will fluctuate upwards [3][13]. - Aluminum alloy: The price has rebounded as it tracks the aluminum ingot [3][15]. - Zinc: The social inventory is decreasing again, and zinc prices will fluctuate with non - ferrous metals [3][16]. - Lead: The social inventory is accumulating, and lead prices will fluctuate with non - ferrous metals [3][19]. - Nickel: Supported by Indonesia's policy expectations, nickel prices will fluctuate upwards [3][20]. - Stainless steel: As ferronickel prices continue to rise, the stainless - steel futures will run strongly [3][25]. - Tin: With strengthened supply constraints, tin prices will rise further [3][27]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1行情观点 3.1.1 Copper - **Information analysis**: The US non - farm payrolls in December 2025 were lower than expected. The copper concentrate long - term processing fee for 2026 was set at $0/ton and $0/pound. In December, China's electrolytic copper production increased both month - on - month and year - on - year. The spot price of 1 electrolytic copper had a large increase in the average premium compared to the previous trading day. There were strikes at a Chilean copper mine, and the second - phase project of a copper mine in Ecuador was postponed [8]. - **Main logic**: Macroeconomic factors suggest that the Fed may continue its loose policy, which supports copper prices. In terms of supply - demand, copper mine supply disruptions are increasing, and the supply is tightening. The smelting supply is expected to shrink, while the demand is currently weak but the long - term supply - demand is expected to tighten [8][9]. - **Outlook**: Copper prices are expected to fluctuate upwards due to supply constraints and disruptions [8][9]. 3.1.2 Alumina - **Information analysis**: On January 12, the spot prices of alumina in various regions mostly declined, and the alumina warehouse receipts increased [9][10]. - **Main logic**: The macro - sentiment amplifies price fluctuations. Fundamentally, the supply contraction is insufficient, the inventory is accumulating, and the cost support is weak. However, due to low valuations, more funds are focusing on this variety, and price fluctuations may increase [10]. - **Outlook**: Alumina prices are expected to fluctuate as the current supply - demand is in surplus but the valuation is low [10]. 3.1.3 Aluminum - **Information analysis**: On January 12, the average price of SMM AOO aluminum increased, and the inventory of aluminum ingots and aluminum rods in the main consumption areas increased. The warehouse receipts of electrolytic aluminum on the SHFE increased. Some enterprises launched the "aluminum replacing copper" standard implementation work, and a company transferred its aluminum production capacity [13]. - **Main logic**: The macro - outlook is positive with expectations of US interest rate cuts and the implementation of China's "two new" policies. The supply has constraints in the medium term, while the current high prices are suppressing demand, and the inventory is accumulating. Overall, the short - term macro - expectation and supply - demand expectation are positive [13]. - **Outlook**: Aluminum prices are expected to fluctuate upwards in the short term and the price center may rise in the medium term [13][14]. 3.1.4 Aluminum alloy - **Information analysis**: On January 12, the price of a certain type of aluminum alloy increased, and the warehouse receipts decreased. An Indonesian electrolytic aluminum project started production [15]. - **Main logic**: The cost is strongly supported as the supply of scrap aluminum is tight. The supply is restricted by factors such as raw material shortages and profit inversion, and the demand is currently based on rigid procurement but is expected to improve in the medium term. The social inventory has decreased slightly, but the warehouse receipt inventory is accumulating [15]. - **Outlook**: The price is expected to fluctuate upwards in the short and medium term due to strong cost support and relatively stable supply - demand [15]. 3.1.5 Zinc - **Information analysis**: On January 12, the spot premiums of zinc in different regions varied. The SMM seven - region zinc ingot inventory decreased slightly. A railway line in Australia was damaged, affecting the zinc concentrate supply [16][17]. - **Main logic**: The macro - outlook is stable with some fluctuations. The zinc ore supply is currently tight, and the smelter's profit is declining. The domestic consumption is in the off - season, and the demand is average. In the short term, the zinc ingot export will continue, and the social inventory may continue to decrease. In the long term, the supply may increase while the demand growth is limited [18]. - **Outlook**: Zinc prices are expected to fluctuate as the production has increased in January, the demand is in the off - season, but the export and the strong non - ferrous metal sector support the price [18]. 3.1.6 Lead - **Information analysis**: On January 12, the price of waste electric vehicle batteries increased, the price of lead ingots increased, the social inventory of lead ingots increased significantly, and the SHFE lead warehouse receipts increased. The lead consumption was weak, and the inventory accumulated due to the approaching contract delivery [19]. - **Main logic**: In the spot market, the premium decreased, and the original - recycled lead price difference was stable. The supply increased as the recycled lead smelters in Anhui resumed production, although the profit was narrowing. The demand from the electric bicycle sector was weak, while the demand from the automotive battery sector improved. The lead - acid battery enterprise's operating rate was still at a relatively high level compared to previous years [19]. - **Outlook**: Lead prices are expected to fluctuate as the production has recovered, the demand is weakening marginally, the import window is open, but the waste battery cost remains high [19][20]. 3.1.7 Nickel - **Information analysis**: On January 12, the SHFE nickel warehouse receipts increased, and the LME nickel inventory decreased. It is expected that the domestic trade ore price in Indonesia will increase significantly in the second half of January. Indonesia plans to adjust the nickel production quota through RKAB to match the smelter's capacity [20][22][23]. - **Main logic**: The supply pressure remains as the domestic and Indonesian nickel production is high. The demand is in the traditional off - season, and the overall fundamentals are in surplus. The policy of Indonesia's nickel ore quota is uncertain [24]. - **Outlook**: Nickel prices are expected to fluctuate. If the actual quota in Indonesia is low, the surplus expectation in 2026 will decline significantly [24]. 3.1.8 Stainless steel - **Information analysis**: The stainless - steel futures warehouse receipts decreased. The price of ferronickel increased, and Indonesia plans to adjust the production quota to match the smelter's capacity [25][26]. - **Main logic**: The cost is supported as the ferronickel price has recovered. The production decreased in December and may increase slightly in January. The terminal demand is cautious. The social inventory has not increased significantly, but there may be pressure to accumulate inventory in the off - season [26][27]. - **Outlook**: Stainless - steel prices are expected to fluctuate. The production may increase slightly in January, the demand is weak in the off - season, but the cost support from the ore end exists [26][27]. 3.1.9 Tin - **Information analysis**: On January 12, the LME tin warehouse receipts increased, the SHFE tin warehouse receipts decreased, and the SHFE tin positions increased. The spot price of tin increased significantly [27]. - **Main logic**: Supply is the core concern. There are supply disruptions in Myanmar, Indonesia, and Africa. The supply of tin concentrate is tightening, and the processing fee is low, making it difficult to increase the refined tin production. The demand is expected to increase as the global economy is expected to improve, and the consumption in semiconductor, photovoltaic, and new - energy vehicle sectors is rising [28]. - **Outlook**: Tin prices are expected to fluctuate upwards as the supply risk is high and the inventory is low [28]. 3.2行情监测 - **Copper, Alumina, Aluminum, Aluminum alloy, Zinc, Lead, Nickel, Stainless steel, Tin**: No specific information provided in the given text, so no summary can be made. 3.3行情监测（商品指数） - The comprehensive index, specialty index, and sector index of CITIC Futures' commodity index all showed an upward trend on January 12, 2026. For example, the commodity 20 index increased by 1.85% to 2786.88, and the non - ferrous metal index increased by 1.86% to 2846.94 on that day [151][152].

摘要2026年1月12日，上海期货交易所发布关于同意云南锡业股份（000960）有限公司"YT"牌银锭注册 的公告，经研究决定，同意云南锡业股份有限公司生产的"YT"牌银锭在上海期货交易所注册，执行标 准价。 2026年1月12日，上海期货交易所发布关于同意云南锡业股份有限公司"YT"牌银锭注册的公告，经研究 决定，同意云南锡业股份有限公司生产的"YT"牌银锭在上海期货交易所注册，执行标准价。 自公告之日起，上述产品可用于上海期货交易所白银期货合约的履约交割。 产品相关说明如下： 执行标准：合约规定要求 注册企业：云南锡业股份有限公司 生产工厂：云南锡业股份有限公司铜业分公司 产地：云南省红河州蒙自市红河工业园区冶金材料加工区云锡产业园区7号路1号 产品名称：银锭 注册商标：YT 锭型：15千克IC-Ag99.99 外形尺寸：(365±20)*(135±20)毫米 块重：15±1千克 交割单位(30千克)：由2块15千克银锭组成 ...