交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 大越期货投资咨询部 金泽彬 从业资格证号：F3048432 投资咨询证号： Z0015557 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投 资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 每日观点 纯碱： 1、基本面：碱厂检修逐步恢复，供给高位下滑逐步企稳；下游浮法和光伏玻璃日熔量平稳，终 端需求一般，纯碱厂库下滑但仍处于历史高位；偏空 2、基差：河北沙河重质纯碱现货价1235元/吨，SA2509收盘价为1199元/吨，基差为36元，期货 贴水现货；偏多 3、库存：全国纯碱厂内库存162.43万吨，较前一周减少3.13%，库存在5年均值上方运行；偏空 4、盘面：价格在20日线下方运行，20日线向下；偏空 5、主力持仓：主力持仓净空，空减；偏空 6、预期：纯碱基本面供强需弱，短期预计低位震荡偏弱运行为主。 影响因素总结 利多： 纯碱早报 2025-6-3 | 日盘 | 主力合约收盘价 | 重质纯碱：沙河低端价 | 主力基差 | | ...

Report Information - Analyst: He Hui, Energy and Chemical Team, including Guo Jianfeng, Guo Yanpeng, and Li Qian [2] - Company: Zhonghui Futures Co., Ltd. - Date: May 30, 2025 [2] Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoints - In May, the domestic and overseas macroeconomic situation did not improve significantly, and the commodity market was weak. The soda ash futures market was also in a downward trend, searching for a bottom. [3] - Soda ash is facing a situation of over - capacity, insufficient demand, and cost collapse. In the short term, it is difficult to find supply - demand drivers, while in the long - term, it is anchored to natural soda ash cost and demand growth rate. [3] Market Review Futures Market - As of May 30, the SA2509 contract closed at 1,190 yuan/ton, with a monthly change of - 12% (a decrease of 165 yuan) [6] 现货市场 - In May, the prices of heavy soda ash were differentiated, with most prices decreasing by 50 yuan/ton, a change ranging from - 5.1% to 3.2% [6] Basis - In May, the spot price of soda ash was weak, while the futures price was even weaker, resulting in a stronger basis. The basis of the main SA509 contract (against Shahe heavy soda ash) was 40 points, with a basis rate of 3.3% [8] Inter - month Spread - The SA09 - 01 contract spread was 2 points, changing from negative to positive, showing a flat - water structure. The SA01 - 05 contract spread was - 52 points, indicating a weaker expectation for the far - month contract [11] Term Structure and Inter - commodity Spread - The soda ash futures market changed from a contango structure to a near - month back flat - water structure, compressing the downward space. The FG - SA09 contract spread was about - 200, and the long - glass short - soda ash spread had a profit of 100 points from - 300 [13] Supply Analysis Device Maintenance and New Capacity - Currently, the maintenance devices of soda ash plants are gradually restarting, and new capacities are being put into production one after another. In 2025, the total planned new capacity is 590 tons/year [17][18] Operating Rate - In May, the comprehensive operating rate of soda ash decreased significantly. Currently, the national operating rate is 78.57% (a month - on - month decrease of 10.87%), with the ammonia - soda process operating rate at 71.41% (a month - on - month decrease of 15.71%) and the combined - soda process operating rate at 76.54% (a month - on - month decrease of 10.58%) [20] Production - In May, the weekly average production of soda ash was 70.32 tons, with the estimated monthly production at 311.41 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 1.9% and a year - on - year decrease of 1.1%. The weekly average production of heavy soda ash was 38.38 tons, with the estimated monthly production at 170 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 2.4% and a year - on - year decrease of 5.1% [31][34] Demand Analysis Glass Melting Volume - Currently, the daily melting volume of float glass is 15.77 tons, a month - on - month increase of 0.32% and a year - on - year decrease of 8.25%. The daily melting volume of photovoltaic glass is 9.88 tons, a month - on - month increase of 0.61% and a year - on - year decrease of 13% [39] Total Melting Volume - In May, the average daily total production of float glass and photovoltaic glass was 25.55 tons, a month - on - month increase of 0.5% and a year - on - year decrease of 9.9% [42] Supply - demand Gap of Heavy Soda Ash - In May, the estimated monthly demand for heavy soda ash was 158.4 tons, and the supply - demand surplus was 11.55 tons, still in a state of oversupply [43] Inventory Analysis Total Inventory - Currently, the total inventory of domestic soda ash manufacturers is 162.43 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 3.94% and a year - on - year increase of 98.52%. The available inventory days are 13.47 days, a month - on - month decrease of 0.43 days and a year - on - year increase of 6.6 days [51] Inventory of Heavy and Light Soda Ash - Currently, the inventory of heavy soda ash is 80.6 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 4.1% and a year - on - year increase of 76.95%. The inventory of light soda ash is 81.83 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 3.79% and a year - on - year increase of 125.6% [54] Cost and Profit Analysis Cost - Currently, the production cost of the ammonia - soda process is 1,283 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 7.23% and a year - on - year decrease of 26.39%. The production cost of the combined - soda process (double - ton) is 1,610 yuan/ton (75% single - ton cost is 1,208 yuan), a month - on - month decrease of 2.1% and a year - on - year decrease of 19.1% [58] Profit - Currently, the production profit of the ammonia - soda process is 67.2 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 49.7 yuan/ton and a year - on - year decrease of 85.28%. The production profit of the combined - soda process is 215 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 40.5 yuan/ton and a year - on - year decrease of 78.49% [60] Trading Strategies Single - side Strategy - Currently, the main 09 contract has fallen below the combined - soda process cost of 1,200 yuan/ton. Technically, it shows a short - position arrangement of moving averages. Maintain a bearish view, dynamically track the pressure level of the 20 - day moving average, with a reference range of 1,050 - 1,250 [4] Arbitrage Strategy - Currently, the 9 - 1 spread of soda ash is near 0, almost at par. Considering the seasonal maintenance in summer and the planned new natural soda ash capacity at the end of the year, participate in the 9 - 1 positive spread. In terms of inter - commodity spreads, the FG - SA09 contract spread is about - 200, and the long - glass short - soda ash spread can still be held in the short term, and stop profit when the spread narrows to - 150 [4] Hedging Strategy - Currently, the inventory of soda ash plants is at an absolute high level. Upstream enterprises can pay attention to the short - hedging opportunities of the 09 contract when the futures price is at a premium or at par with the spot price, around 1,200 - 1,250. Downstream glass enterprises can conduct long - hedging when the futures price is lower than the spot delivery cost [4]

纯碱供应仍处于过剩状态，需要上游低开工来维持供需平衡，中上游显性库存处于较高水平。当前联碱 法和氨碱法生产利润均处于低位，边际装置按现金流成本算在盈亏平衡附近。 产能继续投放，供应维持增长 供应方面，国内纯碱处于产能投放周期之中。本轮纯碱投产周期始于2023年，2024年新投放产能250万 吨，2025年一季度新投产能90万吨，后续还有405万吨产能待投，整体2025年有效产能增速预计在5.6% 左右。2024年7月起，纯碱生产利润迅速恶化，2024年下半年纯碱开工率环比下行，2025年1—2月开工 率维持中性水平，3月远兴能源以及河南金山集中检修，纯碱开工率降至低位，4月装置回归，开工率环 比恢复。5月计划检修较多，包括江苏实联、河南金山和青海昆仑等，一些成本较高的装置维持降负的 状态。 进出口方面，2024年8月起，由于国内纯碱转为过剩，价格下行，纯碱出口窗口逐步打开，部分纯碱生 产企业也积极开拓海外销售市场，纯碱转为净出口状态；2025年一季度，纯碱净出口量维持在很高的水 平，后续预计也会继续维持。 重碱增长乏力，轻碱缺乏亮点 光伏玻璃处于触底反弹的阶段。2025年3月开始，光伏玻璃产线开始继续投产，前 ...

Group 1 - As of May 29, 2023, seven steel mills in Shandong have confirmed a total annual production target of 55.33 million tons, a decrease of approximately 3.5 million tons compared to the same period last year, with a planned reduction in crude steel production of 4%-10% for 2025 [1] - According to Mysteel, as of May 29, the production of rebar has shifted from an increase to a decrease, with social inventories declining for the twelfth consecutive week, while market demand has increased slightly to 2.4868 million tons, up by 15,500 tons or 0.63% from the previous week [1] - A stainless steel plant in South China plans to halt production for approximately 25 days starting July 5 due to ultra-low emission renovations, which is expected to impact stainless steel output by 80,000 tons [1] Group 2 - The Malaysian government plans to increase the biodiesel blending ratio for ground transportation vehicles from B10 to B20 [1] - As of May 25, 2023, Canadian canola exports decreased by 10.36% week-on-week to 160,100 tons, while commercial inventories stood at 919,900 tons [1] - As of May 29, the total inventory of float glass in China was 67.662 million heavy boxes, a decrease of 107,000 boxes week-on-week, while the total inventory of soda ash was 1.6243 million tons, down by 52,500 tons [2] Group 3 - OPEC+ member countries are expected to decide on increasing oil production at a meeting on May 31, although the potential scale of the increase remains unclear [2] - A major aluminum supplier has lowered its aluminum premium for shipments to Japan in Q3 to $145 per ton, down by 20% from Q2's $182 per ton [3]

广大学出版 曹剑兰(Z0019556) 数据来源:Wind、Mysteel、SMM、彭博、广发期货研究所 免责声明：本报告中的信息均来源于被广发树货有限公司认为可靠的已公开资料，但广发刚货对这些信息的准确性及完整性不作任何保证。在任何情况下，报告内容仅供参考， 报告中的信息或所表达的意见并不构成所述品种买卖的出价或询价,投资者据此投资,风险自担。 欢迎关注微信公众号 品种 主力合约 点评 操作建议 板块 IF2506 指数下方支撑较稳定,上方突破压力较大,成交缩 IH2506 股指 成交缩量等待驱动,股指延续震荡 量下未见明确主线,建议观望为主。 IC2506 IM2506 短期10年期国债利率可能在1.65%-1.7%区间波 短期信息空窗期,期债整体处于窄幅震荡格局中,等待基本面 动,30年国债利率可能在1.85%-1.95%区间波动 T2509 。单边策略上建议观望为主,关注高频经济数据和 指引。未来可能的增量驱动一来自于可能出现的跨月后资金面 TF2509 国债 转松. 二来自于本周将公布的PMI数据,目前预计5月PMI环比 TS2509 资金面动态。期现策略上,建议关注2509合约上 金融 或有小幅好 ...

| | 产业期现日报 | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可【2011】1292号 2025年5月29日 | | | | 寇帝斯 | Z0021810 | | 现货价格及基差 | | | | | | | 品种 | 5月27日 | 5月26日 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 | 单位 | | 云南国营会乱胶(SCRWF):下海 | 14400 | 14300 | 100 | 0.70% | | | 全乳基差(切换至2509合约) | -ਰੇਟੇ | -100 | 5 | 5.00% | 元/吨 | | 泰标混合胶报价 | 13800 | 14400 | -600 | -4.17% | | | 非标价差 | -695 | 0 | -695 | #DIV/0! | | | 品种 | 5月27日 | 5月26日 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 | 单位 | | 杯胶：国际市场:FOB中间价 | 52.10 | 52.80 | -0.70 | -1.33% | 泰铢/公斤 | | 胶水:国际市场:FOB中间价 | 62.75 | 62.75 | 0.0 ...

成交一般； 产销：沙河83，湖北129，华东102，华南110 | | | | | | 纯 碱 | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 2025/5/21 | 2025/5/27 | | 2025/5/28 周度变化 日度变化 | | | 2025/5/21 | 2025/5/27 | | 2025/5/28 周度变化 日度变化 | | | 沙河重碱 | 1310.0 | 1260.0 | 1260.0 | -50.0 | 0.0 | SA05合 约 | 1315.0 | 1268.0 | 1260.0 | -55.0 | -8.0 | | 华中重碱 | 1280.0 | 1240.0 | 1240.0 | -40.0 | 0.0 | SA01合约 | 1279.0 | 1212.0 | 1207.0 | -72.0 | -5.0 | | 华南重碱 | 1570.0 | 1570.0 | 1570.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | SA09合约 | 1288.0 | 1 ...

| | | | The Press of the control of the program and the first of the | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 板块 | 品种 | 现价 | | | 日度涨跌幅周度涨跌幅月度涨跌幅季度涨跌幅今年涨跌幅 | | | | 殷指 | 沪深300期货 | 3809.2 | -0.57% | -096% | 2.50% | -1.28% | -2.85% | | | 上证50期货 | 2668.6 | -01-94 | -0.91% | 2.28% | 0.10% | -0.35% | | | 中证500期货 | 5578 | -0.304 | 0.294 | 1.47% | -4.15% | -2.02% | | | 中证1000期货 | 5915 | -0.17% | 0.734 | 1.96% | -2.22% | 1.14% | | 国债 | 2年期国债期货 | 102.41 | -0.02% | 0.00% | -0.21% | -0.01% | -0.55% ...

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 纯碱早报 2025-5-28 大越期货投资咨询部 金泽彬 从业资格证号：F3048432 投资咨询证号： Z0015557 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投 资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 每日观点 纯碱： 1、基本面：碱厂检修逐步恢复，供给高位下滑逐步企稳；下游浮法和光伏玻璃日熔量平稳，终 端需求一般，纯碱厂库下滑但仍处于历史高位；偏空 2、基差：河北沙河重质纯碱现货价1290元/吨，SA2509收盘价为1231元/吨，基差为59元，期货 贴水现货；偏多 3、库存：全国纯碱厂内库存167.68万吨，较前一周减少2.06%，库存在5年均值上方运行；偏空 4、盘面：价格在20日线下方运行，20日线向下；偏空 5、主力持仓：主力持仓净空，空增；偏空 6、预期：纯碱基本面供强需弱，短期预计低位震荡运行为主。 影响因素总结 利多： 1、下游光伏玻璃产能有所提升，提振纯碱需求。 利空： 1、23年以来，纯碱产能大 ...

黑色建材日报 | 2025-05-28 市场情绪悲观，黑色震荡下行 玻璃纯碱：供应扰动影响，盘面玻强碱弱 市场分析 玻璃方面：昨日玻璃期货盘面震荡上行，投机情绪较浓。现货方面，沙河地区厂家出货尚可，华东市场偏弱整理， 华中地区多数企业暂稳，华南区域市场价格稳定，东北市场需求不佳，企业出货受限，西南区域成交继续放缓。 供需与逻辑：地产竣工数据依然很差，导致市场对玻璃消费比较悲观。目前玻璃产量低位运行，下游消费表现疲 软，短暂补库无法改变弱势现实，库存高企压制价格，短期玻璃承压运行，后续关注玻璃产线变化和房地产数据 情况。 纯碱方面：昨日期货盘面偏弱震荡运行，延续向下走势。现货方面，国内纯碱价格弱稳调整，成交价格灵活，盘 面价格低位震荡，下游适量低价成交。河南金山、昆仑碱业恢复运行，虽有个别企业降负检修，但供应量呈现小 幅提升。 供需与逻辑：随着新增投产项目陆续落地，纯碱高供应压力再度显现，预计后期去库压力偏大，价格仍将承压运 行，后续需要继续关注纯碱产线间歇性检修及投产情况。 宏观及房地产政策、浮法玻璃下游需求、纯碱产线检修和库存变化。 双硅：市场情绪低迷，双硅偏弱运行 市场分析 硅锰方面：昨日硅锰期货继续下挫 ...