Core Viewpoint - The significant rise in glass and soda ash futures prices is primarily driven by improved policy expectations and a recovery in market sentiment, with main contracts seeing increases of nearly 8% [1][2]. Macro Factors - The recent Central Bank meeting indicated a commitment to maintaining a moderately loose monetary policy, which is expected to support economic stability and boost market sentiment for commodities [3]. - The emphasis on counter-cyclical and cross-cyclical adjustments, along with maintaining ample liquidity, is seen as a foundation for improving macro expectations [3]. Industry Factors - The ongoing "anti-involution" policies are leading to structural adjustments in the glass and soda ash industries, with initiatives like differentiated electricity pricing aimed at phasing out outdated capacities [3]. - Specific regional efforts, such as the transition to cleaner energy in glass production, are expected to further support price rebounds [3]. Supply and Demand Dynamics - Recent improvements in production and sales in key regions are contributing to a favorable supply-demand balance for glass, with expectations of entering a destocking phase [4]. - However, the soda ash industry still faces significant supply pressure, with ongoing capacity expansions projected to add 410 million tons in 2025 and 430 million tons in 2026, while demand remains weak [5]. - The float glass market is experiencing a dual weakness in supply and demand, with recent production declines and a slow recovery in the real estate market expected to lead to continued demand decreases [5][6]. Market Outlook - Industry experts suggest that both glass and soda ash sectors are at the bottom of their cycles, with limited rebound potential and increased short-term market volatility anticipated [7]. - Policy expectations are expected to dominate price trends, with fundamental factors unlikely to support sustained price increases [8]. - The long-term oversupply situation in soda ash is not expected to change quickly, while glass prices may see upward movement later in the year if supply-side adjustments are realized [8].

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - The conference call discusses the soda ash and urea industries, highlighting current market conditions and future projections for both sectors. Soda Ash Industry Insights - **Price Trends**: In 2024, soda ash prices are expected to decline, currently at a low valuation. Attention is needed on real estate support policies and petrochemical industry policies that may influence market recovery [1][3] - **Production Capacity**: By 2025, soda ash production capacity is projected to grow at the highest rate since 2010, exceeding 15%, leading to increased supply pressure. Some companies are in long-term shutdowns but have not exited the market completely [1][3] - **Demand Dynamics**: Heavy soda ash demand is weak due to declining needs in float glass and photovoltaic glass sectors. However, light soda ash demand remains strong, driven by carbon lithium and environmental industries [1][4] - **Export Projections**: Soda ash exports are expected to exceed 2.1 million tons in 2025, a year-on-year increase of approximately 88.8%, which may alleviate some supply pressure [1][6] - **Supply-Demand Gap**: The supply-demand gap for soda ash is anticipated to widen to 6.4 million tons by 2026, with exports only mitigating about one-third of the pressure [1][7] - **Inventory Levels**: High inventory levels persist across the industry, with enterprise inventory at 1.51 million tons and midstream inventory around 5.3 million tons [1][6] Urea Industry Insights - **Demand Drivers**: Agriculture remains the core driver for urea demand, with growth attributed to increased planting areas and the replacement of other fertilizers. However, overall demand growth is slower than supply growth, leading to a relaxed supply-demand balance [2][18] - **Production Capacity and Output**: In 2025, urea's new production capacity is expected to be around 5.9 million tons, pushing total capacity over 80 million tons. The output is projected to grow nearly 12% year-on-year, marking the highest increase in a decade [11][14] - **Price Trends**: Urea prices are expected to stabilize with a central trading price around 1,750 yuan, fluctuating within a range of 200 yuan. Seasonal factors and policy changes will significantly impact price movements [11][24] - **Inventory Trends**: Urea inventory is projected to remain high, with enterprise inventory potentially exceeding 2 million tons if production continues to rise [17] - **Market Outlook**: The urea market is expected to face a weak supply-demand structure in the second half of 2025, despite a strong first half due to seasonal demand [11][10] Additional Considerations - **Policy Interventions**: Potential government interventions may include forced market exits for smaller companies or industry consolidation to address supply excess [8][12] - **Long-term Outlook**: Without significant policy changes or supply reductions, the oversupply situation may worsen. However, improvements in the macroeconomic environment could enhance market conditions [9][23] - **Cost Structures**: The cost structures of both soda ash and urea production vary significantly based on production methods, impacting future pricing strategies [25][26] This summary encapsulates the critical insights from the conference call regarding the soda ash and urea industries, focusing on market dynamics, production forecasts, and potential challenges ahead.

Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant information provided. Core Views - The market sentiment has improved, and steel prices are oscillating. Glass and soda ash are showing an oscillatory upward trend due to stable downstream consumption. Silicon ferroalloys (silicon manganese and silicon iron) are also experiencing price fluctuations influenced by various factors such as electricity costs, supply - demand relationships, and steel procurement [1][3]. Summaries by Related Catalogs Glass and Soda Ash - **Market Analysis**: The glass futures market oscillated upward yesterday, while the spot market's transaction center shifted downward, with downstream buyers purchasing on - demand. The soda ash futures market also oscillated upward, but downstream buyers showed strong wait - and - see sentiment and made purchases based on rigid demand [1]. - **Supply - Demand and Logic**: For glass, the supply - demand contradiction is still significant. Although some production lines are gradually cold - repairing, the production reduction is insufficient compared to the decline in rigid demand. There is a large inventory pressure, and there is a possibility of significant inventory accumulation during the Spring Festival. The market has expectations for the post - Spring Festival peak season. For soda ash, the supply - demand contradiction is relatively limited. Supply has decreased, and demand has weakened, leading to a month - on - month increase in inventory. With new soda ash projects planned for commissioning and the possibility of increased cold - repair of float glass production lines, it is necessary to control the production profit of soda ash enterprises [1]. - **Strategy**: Glass is expected to oscillate, and soda ash is also expected to oscillate. There are no cross - period or cross - variety strategies [2]. Silicon Manganese and Silicon Iron - **Market Analysis**: The manganese silicon futures market rose slightly yesterday, with the overall sentiment improving. The market is oscillating, and market participants are waiting for the new round of steel procurement. The 6517 manganese silicon is priced at 5570 - 5670 yuan/ton in the northern market and 5650 - 5700 yuan/ton in the southern market. The silicon iron futures market rose significantly due to the implementation of differential electricity prices in Shaanxi. Traders are actively purchasing during the January steel procurement, and the overall sales are good. The 72 - grade silicon iron natural lump is priced at 5250 - 5350 yuan/ton, and the 75 - grade silicon iron is priced at 5600 - 5700 yuan/ton [3]. - **Supply - Demand and Logic**: The fundamentals of manganese silicon are not good, with production still higher than demand and a significant increase in inventory. Although the resumption of steel mills after New Year's Day will help repair the rigid demand for manganese silicon, the high inventory pressure restricts price increases. The low inventory of manganese ore at ports provides price support. For silicon iron, the supply - demand contradiction has been significantly alleviated. Enterprises have actively reduced production, leading to a significant decrease in factory inventory. After the resumption of steel mills, the rigid demand for silicon iron is expected to improve. The planned implementation of differential electricity prices in Shaanxi will increase the production cost of silicon iron enterprises, and the futures market is in a loss state [3]. - **Strategy**: Manganese silicon is expected to oscillate, and silicon iron is expected to oscillate with an upward bias [4].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core View of the Report - The fundamentals of soda ash are weak, with high supply, declining terminal demand, and high inventory at the same period. The pattern of supply - demand mismatch in the industry has not been effectively improved. In the short term, it is expected to mainly operate in a weak and volatile manner [2][5] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Soda Ash Futures Market - The closing price of the main contract of soda ash futures increased from 1177 yuan/ton to 1190 yuan/ton, a rise of 1.10%. The low - end price of heavy soda ash in Shahe increased from 1120 yuan/ton to 1135 yuan/ton, a rise of 1.34%. The main basis was - 55 yuan/ton, a decrease of 3.51% [6] 3.2 Soda Ash Spot Market - The low - end price of heavy soda ash in Hebei Shahe was 1135 yuan/ton, up 15 yuan/ton from the previous day [12] 3.3 Soda Ash Production - The profit of heavy soda ash production was at a historical low. The profit of the North China ammonia - soda process was - 137.40 yuan/ton, and the profit of the East China co - production process was - 88.50 yuan/ton [15] - The weekly industry operating rate of soda ash was 81.65% [18] - The weekly output of soda ash was 71.19 tons, including 38.56 tons of heavy soda ash, at a historical high [21] - From 2023 to 2025, there was a large - scale expansion of soda ash production capacity. The total planned new capacity in 2023 was 640 tons, 180 tons in 2024, and 750 tons in 2025, with an actual planned production of 100 tons in 2025 [23] 3.4 Demand Analysis - The weekly sales - to - production ratio of soda ash was 108.54% [26] - The daily melting capacity of national float glass was 15.45 tons, and the operating rate was 73.89% [29] 3.5 Inventory Analysis - The inventory of soda ash in factories nationwide was 140.83 tons, a decrease of 2.10% from the previous week, and the inventory was at a historical high for the same period [35] 3.6 Supply - Demand Balance Sheet - The supply - demand balance sheet from 2017 to 2024E showed that the industry's effective production capacity, output, and apparent supply generally showed an upward trend, but there were fluctuations in the supply - demand gap [36] 3.7 Influencing Factors - **Positive factors**: Equipment problems led to reduced maintenance of enterprises, and the recovery of soda ash supply was slow [3] - **Negative factors**: Since 2023, soda ash production capacity has expanded significantly. In 2025, there were still large - scale production plans, and the industry output was at a historical high. The demand for soda ash decreased due to the production reduction of photovoltaic glass [4]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Views of the Report - The overall sentiment in the commodity market is positive, and the prices of finished steel products continue to fluctuate within the bottom range. The steel price is expected to continue to operate within the bottom range, and the winter storage participation willingness is still cautious [3]. - The iron ore price is expected to fluctuate. The upper space is restricted by high inventory and supply - easing expectations, while the lower space is supported by restocking expectations [5]. - The prices of manganese - silicon and ferrosilicon may continue to be affected by the overall market sentiment. Future market contradictions mainly lie in the direction of the black - metal sector and cost - push and supply - contraction issues [10][11]. - The price of industrial silicon is expected to fluctuate. It is currently supported by market sentiment, but its own fundamentals are weak, and it may continue to accumulate inventory [14][15]. - The price of polysilicon is expected to fluctuate. The supply - demand situation is loose, and the market is in a state of continuous game. It is recommended to wait and see [17]. - The glass price may have further upward potential, and it is recommended to focus on the price range of 1100 - 1150 yuan/ton [20]. - For soda ash, it is recommended to consider short - selling at the price range of 1200 - 1250 yuan/ton [23]. 3. Summary According to Related Catalogs Steel - **Market Quotes** - The closing price of the rebar main contract in the afternoon was 3111 yuan/ton, up 7 yuan/ton (0.225%) from the previous trading day. The registered warehouse receipts were 56,844 tons, with no change. The position of the main contract was 1.5629 million lots, up 14,597 lots. The aggregated price of rebar in Tianjin was 3150 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan/ton; in Shanghai, it was 3280 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan/ton [2]. - The closing price of the hot - rolled coil main contract was 3263 yuan/ton, up 15 yuan/ton (0.461%) from the previous trading day. The registered warehouse receipts were 104,588 tons, with no change. The position of the main contract was 1.2741 million lots, down 20,441 lots. The aggregated price of hot - rolled coil in Lecong was 3250 yuan/ton, with no change; in Shanghai, it was 3260 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan/ton [2]. - **Strategy Views** - The overall commodity market sentiment is good, and the prices of finished steel products continue to fluctuate within the bottom range. The rebar output increased slightly this week, the apparent demand declined, and the inventory continued to decline. The output of hot - rolled coils increased significantly, the apparent demand strengthened slightly, and the inventory continued to decline. The steel price is expected to continue to operate within the bottom range, and the winter storage participation willingness is still cautious [3]. Iron Ore - **Market Quotes** - The main contract of iron ore (I2605) closed at 801.00 yuan/ton, with a change of +0.50% (+4.00). The position changed by +22,093 lots to 640,900 lots. The weighted position was 975,200 lots. The spot price of PB powder at Qingdao Port was 813 yuan/wet ton, with a basis of 63.20 yuan/ton and a basis rate of 7.31% [4]. - **Strategy Views** - The supply of iron ore decreased as the year - end shipping rush of mines ended. The shipping volume from Australia and Brazil both declined. The near - end arrival volume increased. The demand side saw a slight increase in the daily average hot - metal output. The port inventory continued to accumulate, and the steel mills' imported ore inventory increased but was still at a low level in the past five years. The iron ore price is expected to fluctuate, with the upper space restricted by high inventory and supply - easing expectations and the lower space supported by restocking expectations [5]. Manganese - Silicon and Ferrosilicon - **Market Quotes** - On January 6th, affected by the news of differential electricity prices, the ferrosilicon futures price rose sharply, driving the manganese - silicon price up. The main contract of manganese - silicon (SM603) closed up 0.75% at 5918 yuan/ton. The spot price of 6517 manganese - silicon in Tianjin was 5730 yuan/ton, equivalent to 5920 yuan/ton on the futures market, with a premium of 2 yuan/ton. The main contract of ferrosilicon (SF603) closed up 2.70% at 5776 yuan/ton. The spot price of 72 ferrosilicon in Tianjin was 5850 yuan/ton, up 100 yuan/ton from the previous day, with a premium of 74 yuan/ton [8]. - **Strategy Views** - Since December, the overall market sentiment has been positive. The prices of manganese - silicon and ferrosilicon may continue to be affected by the overall market sentiment. The supply - demand pattern of manganese - silicon is still not ideal, but most factors have been priced in. The supply - demand structure of ferrosilicon is basically balanced. Future market contradictions mainly lie in the direction of the black - metal sector and cost - push and supply - contraction issues [10][11]. Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon - **Industrial Silicon** - **Market Quotes** - The main contract of industrial silicon (SI2605) closed at 8900 yuan/ton, with a change of +1.95% (+170). The weighted contract position changed by +18,638 lots to 361,170 lots. The spot price of non - oxygen - blown 553 in East China was 9200 yuan/ton, with no change; the basis of the main contract was 300 yuan/ton. The spot price of 421 was 9650 yuan/ton, with no change; the basis of the main contract was - 50 yuan/ton [13]. - **Strategy Views** - The price of industrial silicon is affected by the overall market sentiment and is expected to fluctuate. Its own fundamentals are weak, and it may continue to accumulate inventory. The price is mainly supported by silicon enterprises' production cuts [14][15]. - **Polysilicon** - **Market Quotes** - The main contract of polysilicon (PS2605) closed at 59365 yuan/ton, with a change of +1.23% (+720). The weighted contract position changed by - 4451 lots to 125,510 lots. The average price of N - type granular silicon was 50.5 yuan/kg, with no change; the average price of N - type dense material was 52.5 yuan/kg, up 0.5 yuan/kg; the average price of N - type re -投料 was 53.5 yuan/kg, up 0.25 yuan/kg. The basis of the main contract was - 5865 yuan/ton [16]. - **Strategy Views** - The supply - demand situation of polysilicon is loose, and the inventory accumulation pressure still exists. The prices of all links in the industrial chain have increased, but the downstream transactions are relatively light. The price is expected to fluctuate, and it is recommended to wait and see [17]. Glass and Soda Ash - **Glass** - **Market Quotes** - The main contract of glass closed at 1092 yuan/ton on Tuesday afternoon, up 1.02% (+11). The price of large - size glass in North China was 1000 yuan, with no change; in Central China, it was 1060 yuan, with no change. The weekly inventory of float - glass sample enterprises was 56.866 million cases, down 1.757 million cases (-3.00%). The top 20 long - position holders reduced 208 long positions, and the top 20 short - position holders reduced 227 short positions [19]. - **Strategy Views** - In December, the glass supply decreased, but the inventory was still relatively abundant. The demand decreased in winter. The market lacks substantial demand recovery or policy support. The glass price may have further upward potential, and it is recommended to focus on the price range of 1100 - 1150 yuan/ton [20]. - **Soda Ash** - **Market Quotes** - The main contract of soda ash closed at 1190 yuan/ton on Tuesday afternoon, up 1.10% (+13). The price of heavy soda ash in Shahe was 1137 yuan, with no change. The weekly inventory of soda - ash sample enterprises was 1.4083 million tons, down 30,200 tons (-3.00%), including 676,100 tons of heavy - soda ash inventory, down 26,900 tons, and 732,200 tons of light - soda ash inventory, down 3300 tons. The top 20 long - position holders reduced 740 long positions, and the top 20 short - position holders reduced 976 short positions [21]. - **Strategy Views** - In December, the domestic soda - ash market showed a narrow - range consolidation trend. The downstream procurement was mainly for rigid demand. The supply - surplus pattern has not changed fundamentally. It is recommended to consider short - selling at the price range of 1200 - 1250 yuan/ton [23].

Report Industry Investment Ratings - No industry investment ratings are provided in the reports. Core Views Urea - On January 6, urea futures closed higher, and the spot market rose slightly. The overall trading atmosphere improved, but the short - term high - supply situation was difficult to change, and the downstream demand was mainly for rigid needs. The urea price was expected to fluctuate strongly in the short term, and attention should be paid to the resumption rhythm of subsequent devices and the progress of downstream industrial and agricultural demand [1]. PVC and Caustic Soda - Caustic soda futures fluctuated strongly on Tuesday, and the spot market was relatively stable. The supply - demand pattern of the caustic soda market was expected to be stable and weak, and attention should be paid to the procurement volume of the main downstream and the price fluctuation of liquid chlorine. PVC prices rose rapidly on January 6, but the supply - demand contradiction increased, and the price was expected to fluctuate weakly [2]. Pure Benzene and Styrene - The overall supply of domestic petroleum benzene was stable, but the port inventory was high. The overall supply - demand pattern of pure benzene was weak, and the price was expected to fluctuate at a low level. The short - term supply - demand of styrene was in a tight balance, but the rebound space was limited [3]. Natural Rubber - The supply of natural rubber faced increased pressure from overseas production areas, but the cost support strengthened. The downstream replenishment was cautious, and the inventory in Qingdao increased significantly. The rubber price was driven up by market sentiment, and attention should be paid to the raw material situation in Thailand [4]. Crude Oil - On Tuesday, oil prices rose first and then fell. The short - term price of Brent crude oil was expected to fluctuate between $60 - 65 per barrel, and attention should be paid to geopolitical conflicts [6][7]. Glass and Soda Ash - Soda ash prices rebounded, but the supply - demand situation was still under pressure, and the price rebound space was limited. Glass prices rebounded at night, but the demand was expected to weaken, and attention should be paid to the inventory digestion of the middle - stream [9]. LPG - LPG prices rose, and the inventory decreased slightly. The short - term market was affected by factors such as geopolitical conflicts and inventory changes [11]. Methanol - Methanol prices continued to rise. The inland market was in a situation of weak supply and demand, while the port inventory was expected to enter the destocking cycle in the first quarter, and the market was expected to maintain a strong - fluctuating pattern [13][15]. Polyester Industry Chain - The supply of PX and PTA was expected to be high in January, but the demand was weak. The prices of PX and PTA were expected to fluctuate and adjust before the Spring Festival. The supply - demand of MEG was expected to accumulate inventory, and the price was under pressure. The supply - demand of short - fiber and bottle - chip was weak, and the prices were expected to follow the raw materials [18]. Summaries by Related Catalogs Urea - **Futures Prices**: On January 6, the 01 contract was 1694 yuan/ton, up 12 yuan; the 05 contract was 1768 yuan/ton, up 0.57%; the 09 contract was 1730 yuan/ton, up 0.87%; the main contract was 2293 yuan/ton [1]. - **Futures Contract Spreads**: The spread between the 01 and 05 contracts was - 84 yuan/ton, up 2 yuan; the spread between the 05 and 09 contracts was 33 yuan/ton, down 2 yuan; the spread between the 09 and 01 contracts was 48 yuan/ton, up 6.25% [1]. - **Main Positions**: The long positions of the top 20 decreased by 0.25%, and the short positions of the top 20 decreased by 0.36% [1]. - **Upstream Raw Materials**: The prices of most upstream raw materials were stable, and the price of synthetic ammonia in Shandong increased by 0.61% [1]. - **Spot Market**: The prices of small - particle urea in most regions rose slightly, and the FOB prices in China and the US Gulf were stable [1]. - **Supply - Demand**: The daily production of urea increased to 204,000 tons, the weekly production decreased by 0.49%, the plant - level inventory decreased by 4.65%, and the port inventory decreased by 0.50% [1]. PVC and Caustic Soda - **PVC Prices and Spreads**: On January 6, the market price of PVC in East China increased, the prices of futures contracts V2601 and V2605 rose by 3.3%, and the basis and spreads changed [2]. - **Caustic Soda Overseas Quotes and Export Profits**: The overseas quotes of caustic soda decreased, and the export profit decreased [2]. - **Supply - Demand and Inventory**: The operating rate of the caustic soda industry was stable, the demand of downstream industries was weak, and the inventory of caustic soda and PVC changed [2]. Pure Benzene and Styrene - **Upstream Prices and Spreads**: The prices of Brent crude oil and WTI crude oil decreased, the price of CFR China pure benzene increased by 0.3%, and the spreads between pure benzene and related products changed [3]. - **Styrene - Related Prices and Spreads**: The price of styrene in East China increased by 0.7%, and the spreads and basis of styrene futures changed [3]. - **Inventory and Operating Rates**: The inventory of pure benzene in Jiangsu ports increased by 6.0%, and the inventory of styrene in Jiangsu ports decreased by 4.7%. The operating rates of some industries in the pure benzene and styrene industry chain changed [3]. Natural Rubber - **Spot Prices and Basis**: On January 6, the price of Yunnan state - owned whole - latex increased by 0.64%, and the basis and spreads changed [4]. - **Production and Operating Rates**: In November, the production of natural rubber in Thailand, Indonesia, etc. changed, and the operating rates of tire - related industries changed [4]. - **Inventory Changes**: The bonded - area inventory of natural rubber increased by 4.48%, and the inventory in Qingdao showed different changes in inbound and outbound rates [4]. Crude Oil - **Crude Oil Prices and Spreads**: On January 6, the price of Brent crude oil decreased by 1.72%, the price of WTI crude oil decreased by 2.04%, and the spreads between different crude oil varieties and contracts changed [6][7]. - **Refined Oil Prices and Spreads**: The prices of NYM RBOB, NYM ULSD, and ICE Gasoil decreased, and the spreads between different refined oil contracts changed [6][7]. Glass and Soda Ash - **Glass Prices and Spreads**: The prices of glass in different regions were stable, and the prices of glass futures contracts changed slightly [9]. - **Soda Ash Prices and Spreads**: The prices of soda ash in different regions were stable, and the prices of soda ash futures contracts increased [9]. - **Supply and Inventory**: The operating rate and weekly production of soda ash decreased, the inventory of soda ash increased significantly, and the demand of downstream industries decreased [9]. LPG - **LPG Prices and Spreads**: On January 6, the prices of LPG futures contracts increased, and the spreads and basis changed [11]. - **LPG Inventory and Operating Rates**: The LPG refinery storage - capacity ratio increased slightly, the port inventory decreased by 8.41%, and the operating rates of upstream and downstream industries changed [11]. Methanol - **Methanol Prices and Spreads**: The prices of methanol futures contracts increased, and the spreads and basis changed [13]. - **Methanol Inventory and Operating Rates**: The inventory of methanol enterprises and ports increased, and the operating rates of upstream and downstream industries changed [13][14][15]. Polyester Industry Chain - **Upstream Prices**: The prices of Brent crude oil and WTI crude oil decreased slightly, and the prices of PX - related products increased [18]. - **Downstream Polyester Product Prices and Cash Flows**: The prices of polyester products such as POY, FDY, etc. changed slightly, and the cash flows and processing fees of polyester products changed [18]. - **Inventory and Operating Rates**: The inventory of MEG ports decreased slightly, and the operating rates of different industries in the polyester industry chain changed [18].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints of the Report - In 2026, new soda ash production capacity will still be put into operation, with overall sufficient supply. The downstream float glass industry still faces the pressure of declining real - estate demand and is expected to maintain low profits. Driven by the anti - involution policy, the elimination of backward capacity in the float glass industry is expected to accelerate. The problem of excessive supply - demand gap in the downstream photovoltaic glass industry still exists, and there is a possibility of more - than - expected production cuts in the future. The loose supply situation of soda ash in 2025 needs to be improved, and the futures price is expected to fluctuate weakly, with the upper pressure at the 1400 level [3][52] Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Chapter 1: Soda Ash Price Fluctuated Downward Throughout the Year - In 2025, the domestic soda ash market price fluctuated downward. From January to February, the domestic soda ash futures price rebounded with a high of 1600. From March to June, it fluctuated downward to a low of 1150. In July, it rebounded with a high of 1500. From August onwards, it showed a downward trend [8] Chapter 2: Supply - Side Analysis - **New Capacity Investment Expectations**: In the first half of 2025, the domestic soda ash capacity increased by 230 tons, and the total capacity reached 4110 tons by the end of June. In 2026, there will be a concentrated production - launch wave, with new capacity exceeding 5.5 million tons and the total capacity approaching 47 million tons. Key projects include the full - load operation of the 2.8 million - ton/year natural soda ash of Yuanxing Energy's Alxa Phase II, the gradual output release of Yuntu Holdings' 700,000 - ton soda ash project, the likely completion and operation of Jinshan's 2 - million - ton project, and the planned construction and operation of Hengyang Hengyi Alkali Factory's 1 - million - ton project [11][12] - **High - Level Fluctuation of Soda Ash Operation**: In 2025, the soda ash operation generally maintained an 80% - 90% range. In the first half of the year, there were concentrated enterprise overhauls in March and May, resulting in a significant increase in losses. In the second half of the year, it continued to fluctuate. In November, supply decreased due to equipment fluctuations, and in December, supply increased as overhauls were restored [16] - **Low - Level Fluctuation of Soda Ash Profits**: In 2025, soda ash production profits fluctuated around the break - even point, significantly lower than the previous year. As of December 11, 2025, the theoretical profit of the dual - ton soda ash by the joint - alkali method was - 49 yuan/ton, up 50.25% month - on - month; the theoretical profit of the ammonia - alkali method was - 67.60 yuan/ton, up 1.31% month - on - month [19] - **Significant Year - on - Year Increase in Soda Ash Exports**: In 2025, soda ash imports decreased significantly year - on - year, while exports increased significantly, but export prices declined. In January - June, imports were about 18,500 tons, and exports were about 1.0156 million tons, up 126.54% year - on - year. In October, imports were 30 tons, and exports were 214,500 tons, up 14.14% month - on - month and 32.62% year - on - year [21][22] - **High - Level Increase in Soda Ash Manufacturers' Inventory**: In 2025, the enterprise inventory fluctuated at a high level. As of December 11, the total inventory of domestic soda ash manufacturers was 1.4943 million tons, down 2.88% week - on - week. The soda ash delivery warehouse inventory first rose and then declined [23] Chapter 3: Demand - Side Analysis - **Analysis of Downstream Float Glass Demand** - **Impact of Profits on Float Glass Capacity Utilization**: From January to November 2025, the float glass output was 51.48 million tons, down about 5.2% year - on - year. The overall daily melting volume was stable, with an average industry start - up rate of about 74.32% and a capacity utilization rate of 77.48%. The real - estate demand for float glass is under pressure, and the industry is in the process of capacity clearance [30] - **Float Glass Profits Expected to Remain Low**: In 2025, float glass maintained relatively stable low profits from January to October and declined after October. As of December 18, 2025, the weekly average profit of float glass using natural gas as fuel was - 181.40 yuan/ton, up 15.02 yuan/ton month - on - month; that using coal - gas was - 7.63 yuan/ton, down 14.14 yuan/ton month - on - month; that using petroleum coke was - 0.07 yuan/ton, down 35.71 yuan/ton month - on - month [32] - **Expected Decline in Float Glass Demand and Accelerated Supply Contraction**: In 2025, the float glass price fluctuated weakly. The real - estate sector accounts for 65% of float glass demand, and the real - estate construction area has been declining. In 2026, the real - estate completion area is expected to decline further. The Chinese automobile production is expected to grow moderately in 2026. Driven by the anti - involution policy, the elimination of backward capacity in the float glass industry is expected to accelerate in 2026 [35][37][38] - **Analysis of Downstream Photovoltaic Glass Demand**: The photovoltaic glass price showed a downward trend from 2021 to 2025. In 2025, due to policy - driven terminal power station rush - installation in the second quarter, the price rose, but after that, there was a serious supply - demand mismatch, and the price dropped. In the third quarter, the price returned above the cost line under the "anti - involution" action. By the end of November, the price approached the cash cost line of some enterprises. In the current macro - economic environment, there is limited space for demand stimulation, and there is a possibility of more - than - expected production cuts [40][41] Chapter 4: Analysis of Other Influencing Factors - **Real - Estate and Building Materials Industry Policies**: The Central Economic Work Conference emphasized stabilizing the real - estate market and promoting the construction of a new real - estate development model. The "Building Materials Industry Steady Growth Work Plan (2025 - 2026)" strictly regulates cement and glass production capacity and promotes the elimination of backward capacity [43][44] - **The Domestic Economy is Expected to Continue to Recover, and Policies are Oriented towards Stabilizing the Economy**: The Central Economic Work Conference stressed implementing more proactive and effective macro - policies, expanding domestic demand, optimizing supply, and promoting high - quality economic development [47] Chapter 5: Market Outlook and Investment Strategy - The supply of soda ash is expected to increase in 2026, and enterprises may increase exports to relieve inventory pressure. The downstream float glass industry faces pressure from declining real - estate demand, and the elimination of backward capacity is expected to accelerate. The photovoltaic glass industry has a large supply - demand gap, and there is a possibility of more - than - expected production cuts. The soda ash futures price is expected to fluctuate weakly, with the upper pressure at the 1400 level [51][52]

Report Industry Investment Rating - The mid - term outlook for the industry is "oscillation", with some varieties having specific ratings such as "oscillation", "oscillation - biased upward", and "oscillation - biased downward" [5] Core Viewpoints - The central bank's emphasis on promoting high - quality economic development and reasonable price recovery has led to a warm macro - sentiment. There are still expectations of hot metal复产 and pre - holiday restocking, with iron ore prices remaining strong and coal and coke prices recovering from lows. The fundamentals of steel in the off - season have limited highlights, but cost support is strong, and the futures prices have rebounded from lows. The glass and soda ash futures follow the sector and perform strongly [1] - In the off - season, the fundamentals have limited highlights. Before the Spring Festival, continue to focus on the downstream restocking intensity. In January, the resumption of production by steel enterprises is expected to further boost the restocking expectation, and furnace material prices still have the potential to rise from lows, but the upside space is restricted by steel mill profits [5] Summary by Category Iron Element - Iron ore: The port inventory is continuously accumulating, and steel mills' restocking is slow. There is an expectation of blast furnace复产 in January. The复产 of hot metal and pre - holiday restocking support the ore price, and it is expected to oscillate in the short term [1] - Scrap steel: The supply and demand of scrap steel are both weak. Steel mills' inventory is relatively high, and restocking has slowed down. The spot price of scrap steel lacks upward momentum, but the profit of electric furnaces is acceptable, which supports demand. The overall fundamental contradiction is not prominent, and the price is expected to oscillate [1] Carbon Element - Coke: The cost side of coke has shown signs of stabilization, and the expectation of steel mill复产 still exists. As mid - and downstream winter restocking gradually begins, the coke supply - demand structure may gradually tighten. The space for further spot price cuts is limited, and the futures are expected to oscillate following coking coal [2] - Coking coal: As the year approaches, the intensity of winter restocking gradually increases, and the impulse behavior of Mongolian coal imports has improved. The overall supply pressure will be relieved, the fundamentals of coking coal will continue to improve marginally, and there is still upward momentum in futures and spot prices [2] Alloys - Manganese silicon: The pattern of loose supply and demand for manganese silicon continues, and the upstream has great pressure to destock. When the futures price rises to a high level, it will face selling hedging pressure. In the medium term, the futures price may gradually fall back to the cost valuation [3] - Ferrosilicon: Currently, the upstream supply pressure of ferrosilicon has been relieved, and the market's bullish sentiment has increased. The short - term futures price is expected to remain high. However, if the spot price is significantly adjusted upwards due to the influence of futures, the resumption of production by manufacturers may accelerate after profit repair, and the upstream supply pressure may reappear [3] Glass and Soda Ash - Glass: There are still expectations of supply disturbances, but the inventory of mid - and downstream is moderately high. Fundamentally, the current supply and demand are still in surplus. If there is no more cold repair before the end of the year, high inventory will always suppress the price, and it is expected to oscillate weakly; otherwise, the price will rise [2][4] - Soda ash: The overall supply and demand of soda ash are still in surplus, and it is expected to oscillate in the short term. In the long run, the pattern of supply surplus will further intensify, and the price center will continue to decline to promote capacity reduction [2] Specific Varieties - Steel: The cost is strong, and the futures price has rebounded from lows. In the off - season, supply and demand are both weak. Although the fundamentals of rebar still have resilience and the inventory pressure of hot - rolled coils still exists, with the resumption of production by steel mills and winter restocking, cost support is strong, and the futures price is expected to oscillate widely at a low level [7][8] - Iron ore: The market sentiment is strong, and the futures and spot prices are rising. The supply side has expectations of disturbances, and the demand side has an expectation of blast furnace复产 in January. The port inventory is accumulating, and steel mills' restocking is slow. The ore price is expected to oscillate in the short term [8] - Scrap steel: Steel mills' arrivals are at a low level, and the price oscillates. The supply and demand are both weak, and the fundamentals have no prominent contradictions, so the price is expected to oscillate [10] - Coke: The fundamentals have limited changes, and the futures price first weakens and then strengthens. The cost side has stabilized, and the futures are expected to oscillate following coking coal [12][13] - Coking coal: The online auctions show mixed results, and the night - session futures of commodities generally rise. As the year approaches, the fundamentals will continue to improve marginally, and there is upward momentum in prices [14] - Glass: The commodity sentiment has recovered, and the valuation premium has rebounded. The supply has expectations of disturbances, and the inventory is moderately high. If there is no more cold repair, the price is expected to oscillate weakly; otherwise, it will rise [15] - Soda ash: The fundamentals have limited changes, and the sentiment drives the valuation to repair. The supply and demand are in surplus, and it is expected to oscillate in the short term and the price center will decline in the long run [17] - Manganese silicon: The upstream supply pressure remains high, and attention should be paid to the guidance of steel tender prices. The supply - demand pattern is loose, and the futures price may fall back to the cost valuation in the medium term [18] - Ferrosilicon: The electricity cost in Shaanxi is increasing, and the market's bullish sentiment is rising. The upstream supply pressure has been relieved, but attention should be paid to the potential resurgence of supply pressure [20]

行业 纯碱、玻璃日报 日期 2026 年 1 月 6 日 油） 021-60635738 lijie@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3031215 021-60635737 renjunchi@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3037892 硅）028-8663 0631 penghaozhou@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3065843 021-60635740 pengjinglin@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3075681 021-60635570 liuyouran@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F03094925 021-60635727 期货从业资格号：F03134307 fengzeren@ccb.ccbfutures.com 数据来源：Wind，建信期货研究发展部 纯碱当日行情： 能源化工研究团队 研究员：李捷,CFA（原油燃料 研究员：任俊弛（PTA、MEG） 研究员：彭浩洲（尿素、工业 研究员：彭婧霖（聚烯烃） 研究员：刘悠然（纸浆） 研究员：冯泽仁（玻璃、纯 ...

专题报告 2026-01-06 纯碱：往期阿拉善产能投产对比 陈逸（联系人） 黑色研究员 从业资格号：F03137504 0755-23375135 cheny40@wkqh.cn 郎志杰 黑色研究员 从业资格号：F3030112 交易咨询号：Z0023202 0755-233751212 langzj@wkqh.cn 报告要点： 2025 年底，阿拉善天然碱二期项目已顺利完成试车并进入投料阶段，这标志着 2026 年将成为 纯碱行业供给再次迎来显著扩张的关键一年。回顾 2023 年阿拉善天然碱一期项目投产时的市 场环境，我们得以通过对比历史行业格局与供需演变路径，分析新一轮产能释放可能带来的市 场影响。 黑色建材研究 | 纯碱 往期阿拉善产能投产对比 2023 年，阿拉善一期项目按规划应投产 4 条产线，合计产能 500 万吨。年内实际有 3 条产线顺利投 产，贡献产能 400 万吨。同时，另有 300 万吨联碱法产能投入运营，全年累计新增产能达 700 万吨， 使 2023 年成为纯碱产能快速扩张的关键年份。上半年，受新增产能释放预期与下游需求偏弱的双 重影响，纯碱价格承压下行，最大跌幅接近 50%。进入 ...