Core Viewpoint - The construction materials and new materials industry is expected to maintain high investment attractiveness in 2025, despite continued pressure from traditional domestic demand in real estate and infrastructure [2]. Group 1: Cement Industry - Cement demand is projected to be under pressure, with structural adjustments expected. The anticipated demand distribution for 2025 is 30% from real estate, 50% from infrastructure, and 20% from rural areas [2][3]. - The industry is expected to experience a low point around April-May 2024, with a gradual improvement in supply-demand relationships as supply exits in an orderly manner [2][3]. Group 2: Glass Fiber Industry - The glass fiber sector is expected to benefit from the release of profits in AI electronic cloth by 2026, with a focus on high-end fabric price elasticity [3]. - The industry has undergone domestic substitution, establishing China as a global supplier, making both domestic and international demand crucial [3]. Group 3: Glass Industry - The glass sector is facing demand pressure and a slowdown in cold repairs, with a net reduction of approximately 4,000 tons per day as of December 21, 2025, which is a deceleration compared to 2024 [4]. - The overall glass prices are under pressure due to weak downstream demand, with a projected decline in construction completions by 18% year-on-year from January to November 2025 [4]. Group 4: Consumer Building Materials - The consumer building materials sector has shown signs of stabilization since Q3 2025, with narrowing revenue declines and reduced price competition, indicating that the most challenging phase has passed [5]. - Despite ongoing pressures in new housing demand, the release of second-hand housing and renovation projects is expected to provide strong support, leading to structural opportunities [5].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Macro-finance: Index futures are bullish in the medium to long term, suggesting to buy on dips; Treasury bonds are expected to move sideways [1] - Black building materials: Coking coal is suitable for short - term trading; rebar for range trading; glass is expected to be slightly bullish in a sideways trend [1] - Non - ferrous metals: Copper suggests holding long positions cautiously and holding a light position during holidays; aluminum advises more observation; nickel suggests observation or shorting on rallies; tin, gold, and silver are for range trading; lithium carbonate is expected to move in a range [1] - Energy and chemicals: PVC, styrene, rubber, urea, and methanol are for range trading; caustic soda and soda ash suggest temporary observation; polyolefins are expected to be weakly bullish in a sideways trend [1] - Cotton textile industry chain: Cotton and cotton yarn are expected to be slightly bullish in a sideways trend; apples and jujubes are expected to move sideways [1] - Agriculture and animal husbandry: Live pigs suggest a short - selling strategy on rallies for near - term contracts and a cautious bullish view for far - term contracts; eggs suggest that breeding enterprises can hedge on rallies for the 02 contract; corn suggests caution on chasing highs in the short term and hedging on rallies for grain - holding entities; soybean meal suggests a bullish view on dips for near - term 03 contracts and a bearish view for far - term 05 contracts; oils suggest gradually closing long positions and caution on chasing highs [1] 2. Core Views of the Report The report provides investment suggestions for various futures products based on their market fundamentals, supply - demand relationships, and macro - economic factors. It analyzes the influencing factors of each product, including policy changes, production and inventory levels, and market sentiment, and gives corresponding trading strategies [1] 3. Summaries by Related Catalogs Macro - finance - **Index futures**: They are expected to move sideways in the short term and be bullish in the medium to long term. The Chinese government's fiscal policy is positive, but industrial profit decline and market rotation may cause short - term fluctuations. Attention should be paid to trading volume changes [5] - **Treasury bonds**: They are expected to move sideways. The previous driving factors of the market are fading, and there is a lack of significant positive factors to drive a new trend. Attention should be paid to the strength changes between assets [5] Black building materials - **Coking coal**: It is expected to move sideways. The market is in a game between strong negative factors (high inventory of imported Mongolian coal, weak demand) and weak positive factors (domestic coal mine production cuts, cost support). Short - term trading is recommended [7] - **Rebar**: It is expected to move sideways. Futures prices are in a narrow range. The valuation is neutral, and the supply - demand contradiction is not significant in the short term. Range trading is recommended [7] - **Glass**: It is expected to be slightly bullish in a sideways trend. Supply is expected to decrease due to production line closures, and there is short - term speculation opportunity around the New Year's Day. However, in the long term, the supply - demand situation is not conducive to a continuous price increase [9] Non - ferrous metals - **Copper**: It has reached a new high. It is expected to be high - level sideways before the New Year's Day holiday. It is bullish in the long term but there is a risk of short - term correction. Cautious long - holding and light - position holiday - holding are recommended [10] - **Aluminum**: It is in a rebound. The fundamentals are still weak, and it is expected to be high - level sideways. More observation is recommended [12] - **Nickel**: It is expected to move sideways. It is expected to be in a surplus situation in the long term. Observation or shorting on rallies is recommended [14] - **Tin**: It is expected to be bullish in a sideways trend. Supply is tight, and downstream demand is weak. Attention should be paid to overseas supply disturbances and downstream demand recovery [14] - **Silver**: It is expected to be bullish in a sideways trend. The price center is moving up. Holding long positions is recommended, and caution is needed for new positions [16] - **Gold**: It is expected to be bullish in a sideways trend. The price center is moving up. Range trading is recommended, and caution is needed for chasing highs [16] - **Lithium carbonate**: It is expected to move in a range. Supply and demand are in a state of balance. Attention should be paid to the impact of Yichun's mining permit issues on supply [17] Energy and chemicals - **PVC**: It is expected to be in a low - level sideways trend. The supply - demand situation is weak, and the price is supported by low valuation and potential policy and cost factors [17] - **Caustic soda**: It is expected to be in a low - level sideways trend. The fundamentals are weak, and short - term observation is recommended [19] - **Styrene**: It is expected to move sideways. The short - term is in a range - bound state, and the medium - to long - term depends on the improvement of cost and supply - demand patterns [19] - **Rubber**: It is expected to move sideways. The raw material price increase is limited, and the inventory is accumulating. There is a risk of price correction [21] - **Urea**: It is expected to move sideways. Supply and demand are both decreasing, and the price is in a wide - range fluctuation [22] - **Methanol**: It is expected to be weakly bullish in a sideways trend. Supply is increasing, downstream demand is weak, and inventory is accumulating [24] - **Polyolefins**: They are expected to be weakly bullish in a sideways trend. Supply is strong, demand is weak, and the upward pressure is large [25] - **Soda ash**: Temporary observation is recommended. The supply is in surplus, but the cost support is strong, and the downward space of the price is limited [26] Cotton textile industry chain - **Cotton and cotton yarn**: They are expected to be slightly bullish in a sideways trend. Global cotton production and consumption are adjusted, and the price is supported by stable consumption and policy expectations [28] - **Apples**: They are expected to move sideways. The market price of late - harvested Fuji apples in storage is stable, and the trading of farmers' goods is still in a stalemate [28] - **Jujubes**: They are expected to move sideways. The acquisition of gray jujubes in Xinjiang is almost finished, and the remaining supply is limited [28] Agriculture and animal husbandry - **Live pigs**: The near - term contracts are expected to be bearish on rallies, and the far - term contracts are cautiously bullish. The supply is increasing in the short term, and the price rebound is limited. In the long term, the price depends on the degree of production capacity reduction [30] - **Eggs**: The 02 contract is suitable for breeding enterprises to hedge on rallies. The short - term supply and demand are balanced, and the medium - to long - term supply pressure still exists [34] - **Corn**: It is expected to be weakly bullish in a sideways trend. The short - term price increase is limited, and the long - term demand is gradually recovering, but the supply - demand pattern is relatively loose [36] - **Soybean meal**: It is expected to move sideways. The near - term 03 contract is bullish on dips, and the far - term 05 contract is bearish [36] - **Oils**: The short - term rebound is limited, and caution is needed for chasing highs. The long - term trend depends on factors such as palm oil production reduction, biodiesel policies, and soybean supply [44]

黑色建材日报 2025-12-30 陈张滢 从业资格号：F03098415 交易咨询号：Z0020771 0755-23375161 chenzy@wkqh.cn 郎志杰 从业资格号：F3030112 交易咨询号：Z0023202 0755-23375125 langzj@wkqh.cn 万林新 从业资格号：F03133967 0755-23375162 wanlx@wkqh.cn 赵 航 从业资格号：F03133652 0755-23375155 zhao3@wkqh.cn 【行情资讯】 螺纹钢主力合约下午收盘价为 3130 元/吨, 较上一交易日涨 12 元/吨（0.384%）。当日注册仓单 55616 吨, 环比减少 4826 吨。主力合约持仓量为 153.0792 万手，环比减少 3632 手。现货市场方面, 螺纹钢天津汇 总价格为 3170 元/吨, 环比增加 10/吨; 上海汇总价格为 3300 元/吨, 环比增加 10 元/吨。 热轧板卷主力 合约收盘价为 3287 元/吨, 较上一交易日涨 4 元/吨（0.121%）。 当日注册仓单 104588 吨, 环比减少 0 吨。主力合约持仓量为 12 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an overall industry investment rating. However, the mid - term outlook for most products is "oscillation", indicating a neutral stance on the short - to - medium - term investment in the black building materials industry [4][9][11][12][14][18][19] Core Viewpoints of the Report - The policy in 2026 remains positive with the implementation of a more proactive fiscal policy. In the off - season, steel continues to reduce inventory, and the fundamental contradictions are limited. The futures market shows an oscillatory trend. With steel mills resuming production and the expectation of winter storage replenishment, iron ore prices are strong, while the coal - coke industry chain has increasing inventory, and the fourth round of coke price cuts has started, putting pressure on the futures market [3][4] - In the off - season, the fundamentals have few bright spots. Before the Spring Festival, attention should be paid to the downstream replenishment intensity. In January, the resumption of production by steel enterprises is expected to boost the replenishment expectation, and there is an expectation of a price increase from the low level for furnace materials [4][5] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Iron Elements - **Iron Ore**: Overseas mine shipments increased month - on - month, and port inventory continued to accumulate. Steel mills made small - scale replenishments, and there was strong game between upstream and downstream. Short - term ore prices are expected to oscillate. Spot prices are strong, but after the price increase, spot trading is poor [4][9] - **Scrap Steel**: Supply and demand are both weak. Steel mills have high inventory and slow down replenishment. The spot price of scrap steel has limited upward momentum. The leading steel enterprises in East China proposed a price cut of 30 yuan/ton last weekend, and the spot market is expected to follow the price cut [4][11] Carbon Elements - **Coke**: The cost side has shown signs of stabilizing. After the fourth - round price cut is implemented, the spot price is expected to stabilize, and the futures market is expected to oscillate following coking coal. As the Chinese New Year approaches, the winter storage intensity increases, and the supply pressure will be relieved [4][12] - **Coking Coal**: The fundamentals will continue to improve marginally. There is still upward momentum for both futures and spot prices as the overall supply pressure will be alleviated with the improvement of Mongolian coal imports in January [4][13] Alloys - **Silicon Manganese**: The supply - demand pattern remains loose and is expected to become looser with the release of new production capacity in Inner Mongolia. The cost side currently supports the price, and the futures price is expected to oscillate around the cost valuation in the medium term [4][5][18] - **Silicon Iron**: Supply and demand are both weak. Alloy plants reduce production to match the declining demand. The cost of semi - coke still drags down the price, and the futures price is expected to oscillate around the cost valuation [4][5][19] Glass and Soda Ash - **Glass**: Supply is expected to be disrupted, but the inventory of the mid - and downstream is moderately high. If there is no more cold - repair by the end of the year, high inventory will suppress the price, and it is expected to oscillate weakly; otherwise, the price will rise [4][5][14] - **Soda Ash**: The overall supply - demand is in surplus. In the short term, it is expected to oscillate, and in the long term, the supply surplus pattern will intensify, and the price center will decline [4][5][17] Steel - Spot market transactions are average. The profitability of steel mills has improved, and the decline in the output of five major steel products has slowed down. The demand is seasonally declining, but there is still support. The overall steel inventory continues to decline, but the mid - level inventory is still high year - on - year. The cost side shows differentiation, and the futures price is expected to oscillate, with attention paid to the pre - holiday replenishment rhythm [9] Commodity Index - On December 29, 2025, the comprehensive index of CITIC Futures Commodity Index was 2339.89, down 0.59%; the Commodity 20 Index was 2687.93, down 0.42%; the industrial product index was 2258.87, down 0.70%. The steel industry chain index on the same day had a daily increase of 0.11%, a 5 - day decrease of 0.02%, a 1 - month decrease of 0.99%, and a year - to - date decrease of 6.27% [105][107]

Core Viewpoint - Hubei Province is committed to enhancing environmental protection efforts, focusing on pollution prevention and control, and ensuring compliance with the "14th Five-Year Plan" for carbon emissions and energy consumption reduction. Group 1: Air Quality Improvement - Hubei aims to control PM2.5 and O3 levels while promoting the construction of projects for reducing volatile organic compounds (VOCs) and nitrogen oxides emissions [1] - The province will continue to implement ultra-low emissions transformations in the thermal power and steel industries, as well as comprehensive rectification of industrial furnaces and kilns [1] - Focus will be placed on deep governance in industries such as cement, coking, glass, ceramics, and petrochemicals, emphasizing source reduction, process control, and end-of-pipe treatment for VOCs pollution [1] Group 2: Water Pollution Control - Hubei will strengthen actions against water pollution, focusing on the treatment of inferior water bodies and the remediation of black and odorous water bodies [1] - The province will conduct inspections and rectifications of key lake pollutant discharge outlets and promote comprehensive governance pilot projects for lake sedimentation [1] - Efforts will be made to ensure stable water quality in the Three Gorges and Danjiangkou reservoir areas through comprehensive management [1] Group 3: Soil and Waste Management - Hubei will continue to advance soil pollution prevention actions and enhance comprehensive solid waste management [2] - The province plans to initiate groundwater pollution prevention pilot projects and conduct environmental assessments of groundwater conditions around pollution sources [2] - There is an effort to include cities like Wuhan and Xiangyang in the national "waste-free city" pilot program [2]

年度报告——玻璃 寒霜未尽，道阻且长 [走Ta势bl评e_级Ra：nk] 玻璃 : 看跌 [Table_Summary] ★地产竣工端缩量态势下，浮法玻璃需求或继续下滑： 2026 年玻璃盘面针对地产政策能够展开的博弈空间有限，主要 因为政策逻辑已经发生重大转变，当前政府部门更倾向于通过 宏观的改善来带动地产。2026 年地产竣工端预计继续面临有效 稳地产政策缺位、竣工储备缩水、存量商品房去库压力大以及 房企流动性压力大等多重压力，预计 2026 年竣工面积较 2025 年下滑 10%左右，继续拖累浮法玻璃需求端。而从另一方面， 2024 年以来单位建筑面积玻璃用量开始大幅提升，能够在一定 程度上对冲部分来自竣工端的负面冲击。综合测算，2026 年浮 法玻璃消费量或较 2025 年下滑 3%左右。 ★供给继续缩量，关注潜在减产可能： 能 源 化 工 2026 年浮法玻璃产量的上行潜在增量将主要来自 2025 年年内 因环保压力延后到 2026 年春节后点火的部分产线，主要因为该 部分新建产线所用的产能置换指标即将到期。除此之外，2026 年有点火计划的产线多为视行情点火，市场下行阶段的点火概 率较低。而下行潜 ...

Industrial Sector - Raw material production continues seasonal adjustments, with steel and building materials output declining this week[1] - Cement clinker capacity utilization rate decreased, while asphalt production increased[1] - Polyester and weaving industry operating rates weakened seasonally, while semi-steel tire production increased[1] Real Estate - New home sales in 30 major cities decreased by 25.2% year-on-year as of December 26, with a slight improvement of 3.0 percentage points compared to last month[1] - The second-hand housing listing price index fell by 0.62% month-on-month, with the decline narrowing[1] Domestic Demand - Movie box office revenue remains high, with a year-on-year increase of 108.5% as of December 25[1] - Retail sales of automobiles decreased by 19% year-on-year from December 1-21, compared to a 7% decline in November[1] - Major home appliance retail sales fell by 34.4% year-on-year as of December 19, a decline of 11.3 percentage points from the end of November[1] External Demand - Port cargo throughput increased by 3.1% year-on-year as of December 21, with container throughput up by 9.1%[1] - Export container freight rates rose by 2.0% this week, marking three consecutive weeks of increase[1] Price Trends - The Nanhua Industrial Index rose by 2.8%, while the Nanhua Non-ferrous Metals Index increased by 5.0% this week[1] - Agricultural product wholesale price index fell by 0.4% week-on-week, showing a stronger performance compared to the same period last year[1]

Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the construction materials industry is "Outperform the Market" and is maintained [1] Core Insights - The report emphasizes the potential for a dual recovery in both fundamentals and valuations for the construction materials sector in 2026, driven by supportive real estate policies and a gradual stabilization of the industry [4] - Key policies released in December 2025 aim to optimize real estate conditions, which are expected to bolster demand [4] - Major construction material companies have seen a lag in stock performance but are reducing their reliance on real estate, with prices for various materials beginning to recover [4] Summary by Sections Cement - December marks the onset of the off-peak season in northern regions, with national demand continuing to decline. The housing market remains weak, while infrastructure demand shows regional disparities driven by policy [5] - Cement production in November 2025 was 154 million tons, reflecting a year-on-year decline [9] Glass - The glass industry is experiencing a sustained decline in demand due to real estate impacts, with traditional peak season orders showing limited improvement [6] - Supply-side adjustments are expected as several production lines undergo maintenance, but overall supply-demand pressures remain, leading to anticipated price stability at low levels [14] Fiberglass - Demand in sectors like wind power and thermoplastics remains stable, while traditional demand has slowed. The industry is expected to see growth driven by AI-related demand, particularly in low dielectric products [6] Consumer Building Materials - The industry has reached a profitability bottom, with no further price declines expected. Recent anti-competition policies have led to strong price increase demands across various categories, indicating potential for profit recovery in leading companies [6] Market Performance - In the past week (December 22-26), the construction materials index rose by 4.56%, outperforming major indices such as the Shanghai Composite Index and the Shenzhen Component Index [7]

Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The overall market shows complex trends, with different commodities and financial products having their own characteristics. Some are influenced by supply - demand fundamentals, some by geopolitical factors, and others by macro - economic policies and seasonal factors. The market rhythm switches quickly, and most products are in a state of oscillation, with different potential investment opportunities and risks [2][3][14] - Different industries have different outlooks. For example, some industries like polycrystalline silicon and manganese silicon are expected to have a relatively positive trend, while others such as urea and PVC may face certain challenges in supply - demand balance and price trends [13][18][28] Summary by Related Catalogs Precious Metals and Base Metals - **Precious Metals**: International gold prices continued a moderate upward trend after the breakthrough, while silver, platinum, and palladium accelerated their rise, with a gain of over 10%. The Fed's easing prospects and geopolitical risks support the strength of precious metals. The spot shortage expectation makes silver, platinum, and palladium more favored by funds, and the gold - silver ratio has dropped significantly below the average. However, exchange restrictions are frequent, and market volatility is extremely high [2] - **Copper**: Copper prices continued to rise strongly last Friday. The Shanghai copper weighted reached a maximum of 102,700 yuan, and it is expected that the London copper will open at $12,700 - $12,800. The market has quickly reached the bullish targets of most overseas institutions for 2026. The target price of the copper market is raised, with the London copper at about $13,100 and the Shanghai copper at about 104,000 yuan [3] - **Aluminum**: The aluminum market's fundamentals are neutral, with poor apparent demand and spot feedback. Shanghai aluminum mainly followed the upward trend, with relatively mild fluctuations. Long - positions should be held with the 40 - day moving average as the support [4] - **Zinc**: In late December, domestic smelter overhauls increased, supporting the adjustment of Shanghai zinc above the annual line. In January, the pressure on the zinc ingot supply side is small, and with the late Spring Festival in 2026 and the expected good start, the consumption side is not pessimistic. Shanghai zinc is expected to oscillate in the range of 22,800 - 23,800 yuan/ton [7] Energy and Chemicals - **Fuel Oil & Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: High - sulfur fuel oil supply is mainly affected by geopolitical factors, with the shipping rhythm in the Middle East and Russia slowing down. The demand side may be boosted by improved refinery profits and the US blockade of Venezuelan oil exports. Singapore's inventory continues to accumulate, and the high - inventory pressure is still significant. Low - sulfur fuel oil supply is dominated by overseas refinery starts. The demand side of ship fuel consumption is continuously weak due to high - sulfur substitution [21] - **Asphalt**: Since December, the weekly shipment volume has remained below 400,000 tons, at a low level in the same period of the past four years. Last week, both social and factory inventories increased. The supply - demand of BU is marginally relaxed, but positive news has a significant boost. However, it will eventually return to the price - pressured pattern dominated by supply - demand relaxation [22] Agricultural Products - **Soybean & Bean Meal**: CBOT soybeans oscillated downward after reopening last Friday, and Dalian soybean meal rose first and then fell. In the future, attention should be paid to the specific export situation of US soybeans and whether the La Nina weather in South America can have a continuous impact [35] - **Cotton**: US cotton rebounded from a low level last week, and the weekly signing data improved, with increased Chinese purchases. Domestic Zhengzhou cotton rose continuously, and the market is bullish. Although this year's new cotton production has increased significantly, the commercial inventory is basically the same as the previous year, and the sales progress is relatively fast [42] Others - **Stock Index**: The previous trading day, the broader market oscillated with heavy volume, and the Shanghai Composite Index recorded an 8 - day consecutive gain. All major futures index contracts closed higher, with IC leading the gain. Industrial profits of large - scale enterprises from January to November showed a growth trend, and the RMB exchange rate broke "7" last week [47] - **Treasury Bonds**: On December 26, 2025, the 30 - year treasury bond futures had the largest increase of 0.36%. In December, the central bank's net MLF injection was 10 billion yuan, a consecutive tenth - month incremental renewal. Against the background of increased counter - cyclical adjustment policies, long - term interest rates have risen significantly recently [48]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - **Macro Finance**: Index futures - medium to long - term bullish, buy on dips; Treasury bonds - oscillatory [1][5] - **Black Building Materials**: Coking coal - short - term trading; Rebar - range trading; Glass - oscillatory and slightly bullish [1][5][9] - **Non - ferrous Metals**: Copper - hold long positions cautiously, hold light positions during holidays; Aluminum - strengthen observation; Nickel - observe or short on rallies; Tin - range trading; Gold - range trading; Silver - range trading; Lithium carbonate - range oscillation [1][10][16] - **Energy and Chemicals**: PVC - range trading; Caustic soda - temporary observation; Soda ash - temporary observation; Styrene - range trading; Rubber - range trading; Urea - range trading; Methanol - range trading; Polyolefins - weakly oscillatory [1][17][24] - **Cotton Spinning Industry Chain**: Cotton and cotton yarn - oscillatory and slightly bullish; Apple - oscillatory; Jujube - oscillatory [1][26][28] - **Agricultural and Livestock**: Live pigs - short - term sell on rallies for near - month contracts, cautiously bullish for far - month contracts; Eggs - 02 contract for breeding enterprises can wait to hedge on rallies; Corn - short - term cautious on chasing highs, grain - holding entities hedge on rallies; Soybean meal - bullish on dips for near - month contracts, bearish for far - month contracts; Oils - close long positions gradually, cautious on chasing highs [1][29][36] Core Views - The market is in a complex situation with various factors influencing different sectors. For example, macro policies, supply - demand fundamentals, and seasonal factors all play important roles in determining the price trends of different commodities. Some sectors are expected to have short - term trading opportunities, while others require long - term observation due to uncertainties [5][7][10] Summary by Categories Macro Finance - **Index Futures**: Medium - to long - term bullish, but may oscillate in the short - term due to factors like policy changes, industrial profit decline, and exchange - rate concerns [5] - **Treasury Bonds**: Expected to oscillate as previous driving factors fade, and there is a lack of significant positive drivers for a new trend [5] Black Building Materials - **Coking Coal**: The market is in a game between clear bearish realities and weak marginal support. Short - term trading is recommended [7] - **Rebar**: With a neutral static valuation and stable expectations, short - term range trading is advised [7] - **Glass**: Although the long - term supply - demand situation is deteriorating, there may be short - term trading opportunities around the New Year. It is expected to be oscillatory and slightly bullish [9] Non - ferrous Metals - **Copper**: Reached a record high recently, but there is a risk of short - term correction. Long - term bullish, but hold positions cautiously and lightly during holidays [10] - **Aluminum**: The fundamentals are weak, but due to macro factors, it has rebounded. Strengthen observation [12] - **Nickel**: Expected to be in an oversupply situation in the long - term. Observe or short on rallies [14] - **Tin**: Supply is tight, and downstream consumption is weak. It is expected to be oscillatory and slightly bullish. Pay attention to supply and demand changes [14] - **Silver and Gold**: Driven by factors such as GDP growth and Fed policies, they are expected to oscillate. Hold long positions for silver and trade in a range for gold [15][16] - **Lithium Carbonate**: Supply and demand are in a state of balance. It is expected to oscillate in a range [16] Energy and Chemicals - **PVC**: With weak fundamentals, low valuation, and concerns about export sustainability, it is expected to oscillate at a low level [17] - **Caustic Soda**: Under the pressure of "high supply, high inventory, and weak demand", it is recommended to observe temporarily [19] - **Styrene**: Short - term range oscillation, with the need to pay attention to cost and supply - demand changes in the long - term [19] - **Rubber**: Due to the divergence between cost support and weak demand, it is expected to oscillate in a range [21] - **Urea**: Supply and demand are both decreasing. It is expected to oscillate in a wide range [22] - **Methanol**: With supply recovery and weak traditional demand, it is expected to be weakly oscillatory [24] - **Polyolefins**: In a situation of strong supply and weak demand, PE is expected to be weakly oscillatory, and PP is expected to oscillate in a range [24] - **Soda Ash**: With supply surplus as the main pressure, it is recommended to observe temporarily [26] Cotton Spinning Industry Chain - **Cotton and Cotton Yarn**: Affected by global supply - demand adjustments and policy expectations, they are expected to be oscillatory and slightly bullish [26] - **Apple and Jujube**: The market is relatively stable, and they are expected to oscillate [28] Agricultural and Livestock - **Live Pigs**: The price is oscillating at the bottom. Short - term sell on rallies for near - month contracts, and cautiously bullish for far - month contracts [29][30] - **Eggs**: Short - term supply and demand are relatively balanced. Breeding enterprises can hedge on rallies for the 02 contract [31][33] - **Corn**: Short - term sell pressure needs to be digested, and long - term demand will gradually recover. Hedge on rallies in the short - term [34][35] - **Soybean Meal**: Trade in a range, bullish on dips for near - month contracts and bearish for far - month contracts [35] - **Oils**: Short - term stop - falling and rebound, close long positions gradually [36][43]