有色商品日报 有色商品日报（2025 年 6 月 20 日） 一、研究观点 | 品 | 点评 | | | --- | --- | --- | | 种 | 隔夜 LME 铜震荡偏弱，下跌 0.32%至 9619.5 美元/吨；SHFE 铜主力下跌 0.27%至 | | | | 78280 元/吨；国内现货进口仍维系较大亏损。宏观方面，美联储在 6 月议息会议上维 | | | | 持利率不变后，特朗普再度喊话美联储要求其降息。关税谈判方面，欧盟正寻求与美 | | | | 国达成英国式贸易协议。中东局势仍是短期焦点，美方有意介入伊以冲突，特朗普已 | | | | 批准攻击计划但暂缓执行，各方也在呼吁伊以停止冲突，局势已在逐步升温。库存方 | | | 铜 | 面，LME 库存下降 4025 吨至 103325 吨；Comex 库存增加 1400 吨至 18.14 万吨； | | | | SMM 周四统计全国主流地区铜库存较周一下降 0.18 万吨至 14.59 万吨，较上周四上 | | | | 升 0.11 万吨。需求方面，淡季来临下，下游消费转弱。伊以冲突升温后铜价表现不 | | | | 佳，佐证投资者相比供给，更 ...

2025/06/16 -681.41 -1161.78 140 -25 130225 58075 2025/06/17 -797.78 -1366.18 140 -28 128875 58975 2025/06/18 -657.73 -1266.71 140 -30 128250 33150 2025/06/19 -583.20 -1068.47 140 -27 127475 33475 变化 74.53 198.24 0 3 -775 325 本周锌价震荡下跌，受累库预期及宏观扰动影响价格中枢下移。供应端，本周国内TC不变，进口TC小幅回升。6月相比 5月冶炼环比提升2.5万吨左右，矿端加工费月均预计提升150元/吨。需求端，内需边际走弱，华北和华南订单环比下 滑，但刚性仍存，绝对价格下跌过快时下游存在一定点价;海外，欧洲需求较弱，但部分炼厂因为加工费问题生产有一 定阻力，现货升贴水小幅提高。国内，社库震荡，绝对价格下跌升水有抬升，但价格企稳后升水又出现回落，累库加速 拐点预计在六月中旬出现。海外LME库存基本保持不变，5月后震荡去化，主要由于海外锌锭较多流入国内。策略方 面，锌空配思路不变，反弹逢高沽空; ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an overall industry investment rating. However, for individual metals, the ratings are as follows: - Copper: Mid - term outlook is "oscillation" [6] - Alumina: Mid - long term outlook is "oscillation on the weak side" [8] - Aluminum: Short - term outlook is "strong oscillation", mid - long term consumption may face pressure [9] - Aluminum alloy: Short - term outlook is "spot is weak in the off - season, the market follows aluminum and is strong", mid - long term outlook is that "spot ADC12 and ADC12 - A00 are expected to rebound" [12] - Zinc: Outlook is "oscillation on the weak side" [13] - Lead: Outlook is "oscillation" [17] - Nickel: Short - term outlook is "wide - range oscillation", mid - long term can "short on rebounds" [23] - Stainless steel: Short - term outlook is "range oscillation" [25] - Tin: Outlook is "oscillation" [27] Report's Core View - The reality of low inventory and the expectation of weakening demand are intertwined, and the non - ferrous metals market will continue to oscillate. In the short and medium term, the weak US dollar, low LME inventory, and weakening demand are intertwined. Attention should be paid to structural opportunities, and short - term long opportunities for copper, aluminum, and tin can be cautiously considered. In the long term, the demand prospects of basic metals are still uncertain, and opportunities to short on rallies for some varieties with supply surplus or expected surplus can be considered [1] Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1.行情观点 Copper - **View**: The Fed maintains the interest rate unchanged, and copper prices oscillate. - **Analysis**: US May labor market data is better than expected; global copper mining giant Antofagasta starts mid - year negotiations; China's electrolytic copper production increases; spot premiums decline; copper inventory decreases; Glencore buys Russian copper; Trump raises tariffs on steel and aluminum imports. - **Logic**: Overseas economy may continue to weaken. Supply is tight due to falling processing fees and smelter maintenance. Demand weakens in the off - season, and there is a risk of tariff increase on copper. - **Outlook**: Copper supply constraints remain, and low inventory supports prices. Copper may oscillate at a high level in the short term [6] Alumina - **View**: The number of warehouse receipts is at a low level, and the monthly spread of the alumina futures market widens. - **Analysis**: Spot prices decline; shipping freight increases; warehouse receipts decrease. - **Logic**: In the short and medium term, there is no shortage of ore, but warehouse receipt depletion is obvious. In the long term, events have limited impact without further fermentation. - **Outlook**: Mid - long term outlook is oscillation on the weak side. Short - term positive spreads or shorting can be considered after the far - month contract rises further [7][8] Aluminum - **View**: Low inventory and high premiums lead to high - level oscillation of aluminum prices. - **Analysis**: Spot prices decline; inventory decreases; geopolitical events occur; new tariff policies are introduced. - **Logic**: Short - term geopolitical and squeezing risks push up prices. Mid - long term consumption may face pressure. - **Outlook**: Short - term prices are strongly oscillating, and mid - long term consumption may be under pressure. Short - term positive spreads can be considered, and mid - long term shorting on rallies is recommended [9][10] Aluminum Alloy - **View**: The transaction prices of scrap aluminum and spot increase, and the aluminum alloy futures market rises. - **Analysis**: Spot prices decline; relevant policies are introduced; car companies make payment commitments. - **Logic**: Short - term pressure in the off - season is high, but low inventory of electrolytic aluminum drives prices up. Mid - long term demand is expected to recover seasonally. - **Outlook**: Short - term spot is weak in the off - season, and the market follows aluminum and is strong. Mid - long term spot ADC12 and ADC12 - A00 are expected to rebound [10][12] Zinc - **View**: Inventory continues to accumulate, and zinc prices oscillate on the weak side. - **Analysis**: Spot premiums are different in different regions; inventory increases; a mine's production plan is announced. - **Logic**: Macro uncertainty exists. Supply is loose, and demand is in the off - season. Inventory accumulates, and prices may decline further. - **Outlook**: Zinc prices are expected to oscillate on the weak side [12][13] Lead - **View**: Cost support is stable, and lead prices oscillate. - **Analysis**: Scrap battery prices rise; lead ingot prices increase; inventory changes; some enterprises are in maintenance or production reduction. - **Logic**: Spot premiums narrow slightly; supply tightens; demand is in the off - season but with some positive factors. - **Outlook**: Lead prices are expected to oscillate [13][14][17] Nickel - **View**: Supply and demand are under pressure, and nickel prices are weak in the short term. - **Analysis**: LME and domestic nickel inventories change; relevant investment and cooperation projects are announced. - **Logic**: Market sentiment dominates the market. Industry fundamentals weaken marginally. Inventory accumulates, and prices are under pressure. - **Outlook**: Short - term wide - range oscillation, mid - long term shorting on rebounds [17][23] Stainless Steel - **View**: Nickel iron prices continue to decline, and the stainless steel futures market oscillates. - **Analysis**: Futures warehouse receipts decrease; spot premiums exist; production data changes. - **Logic**: Nickel iron and chrome iron prices decline, and steel mills are under pressure. Supply and demand may weaken, and inventory accumulates slightly. - **Outlook**: Short - term range oscillation [24][25] Tin - **View**: There is no obvious driving force, and tin prices oscillate. - **Analysis**: Warehouse receipts and inventory increase; spot prices rise; high prices suppress restocking. - **Logic**: Supply disturbances in the main production areas subside. Without obvious driving forces, prices oscillate. Supply is tight, but upward elasticity is limited. - **Outlook**: Tin prices are expected to oscillate [25][27] 2.行情监测 - The report does not provide specific content for this part, so it is skipped.

有色金属日报 2025-6-20 从业资格号：F03120988 0755-23375122 zhangsj3@wkqh.cn 王梓铧 五矿期货早报 | 有色金属 铜 有色金属小组 吴坤金 从业资格号：F3036210 交易咨询号：Z0015924 0755-23375135 wukj1@wkqh.cn 曾宇轲 从业资格号：F03121027 0755-23375139 zengyuke@wkqh.cn 张世骄 从业资格号：F03130785 0755-23375132 wangzh7@wkqh.cn 刘显杰 从业资格号：F03130746 0755-23375125 liuxianjie@wkqh.cn 陈逸 从业资格号：F03137504 0755-23375125 cheny40@wkqh.cn 地缘局势边际恶化，国内权益市场走弱，铜价震荡回调，昨日伦铜收跌 0.32%至 9619 美元/吨，沪铜 主力合约收至 78280 元/吨。产业层面，昨日 LME 库存减少 4025 至 103325 吨，注册仓单量维持低 位，注销仓单比例下滑至 47.5%，Cash/3M 升水 133 美元/吨。国内方面，电解 ...

日度报告——综合晨报 特朗普将在两周内决定是否打击伊朗，A 股出 现单边回调 [T报ab告le_日R期an：k] 2025-06-20 宏观策略（外汇期货(美元指数)） 特朗普将在两周内决定是否打击伊朗 特朗普两周之内做出是否打击伊朗的决定，这意味着事态没有 进一步升级，进入到焦灼状态，市场短期维持震荡。 宏观策略（国债期货） 央行开展了 2035 亿元 7 天期逆回购操作 后续宽货币等利多难被证伪，因此多头情绪难以趋势性退潮， 债牛尚未结束，多头可继续持有。 综 宏观策略（股指期货） 合 A 股单边回调 晨 报 A 股单边下跌，既有政策不及预期的原因，又有自身结构脆弱估 值偏高的压力。总体而言，宣泄成为纾解高估的方式之一，为 下一轮上行提供便宜的筹码。 农产品（玉米淀粉） 淀粉糖产品原料消耗量增加 淀粉糖产品原料消耗量增加 黑色金属（螺纹钢/热轧卷板） Mysteel 五大品种库存周环比下降 15.67 万吨 本周五大品种库存去化有所加速，现货基本面依然相对坚挺。 螺纹表需环比回落不大，同比仍在-7%左右。由于淡季累库尚未 出现，钢价延续震荡小幅反弹，但走弱预期仍难证伪。 能源化工（PTA） 江浙终端开工率 ...

证券代码：601609 证券简称：金田股份 公告编号：2025-069 债券代码：113046 债券简称：金田转债 债券代码：113068 债券简称：金铜转债 宁波金田铜业（集团）股份有限公司关于为子公司提供担保的公告 本公司董事会及全体董事保证本公告内容不存在任何虚假记载、误导性陈述或者重大遗漏，并对其内容 的真实性、准确性和完整性承担法律责任。 重要内容提示： ● 被担保人名称 宁波金田新材料有限公司（以下简称"金田新材料"） 截至2025年6月17日，公司及子公司已为金田新材料提供的担保余额为人民币158,039.61万元；已为重庆 金田提供的担保余额为人民币11,001.00万元；已为越南金田提供的担保余额为人民币76,090.23万元（其 中10,596.72万美元按2025年6月17日美元兑人民币汇率7.1746折算；210,000.00万越南盾按2025年6月17 日越南盾兑人民币汇率0.0003折算）；已为兴荣铜业提供的担保余额为人民币8,500.00万元。 ● 本次担保是否有反担保：无 ● 特别风险提示：截至2025年6月17日，公司及子公司对子公司提供担保余额为人民币805,751.01万 ...

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 有色金属 姓名：何彬 宝城期货投资咨询部 从业资格证号：F03090813 投资咨询证号：Z0019840 电话：0571-87006873 邮箱：hebin@bcqhgs.com 作者声明 本人具有中国期货业协会授 予的期货从业资格证书，期货投 资咨询资格证书，本人承诺以勤 勉的职业态度，独立、客观地出 具本报告。本报告清晰准确地反 映了本人的研究观点。本人不会 因本报告中的具体推荐意见或观 点而直接或间接接收到任何形式 的报酬。 有色金属 | 日报 2025 年 6 月 19 日 有色日报 专业研究·创造价值 午后铜价下行 核心观点 沪铜 今日沪铜午后下行，主力期价由 7.85 万下跌至 7.83 万一线。午 后美元指数反弹使铜价承压，金价和银价也下行明显。产业层面， 本周四电解铜社库小幅上升，使铜价承压。短线期价下挫，关注前 期价格中枢 7.8 万技术支撑。 沪铝 今日铝价午后偏弱震荡，月差持续回落。国内宏观氛围较好，黑 色板块午后偏强运行，给予铝价支撑。产业层面，本周四电解铝维持 去库，国内需求较好，库存持续去化，给予期价支撑。国内宏观向好 叠加库存 ...

Core Points - The company announced an adjustment to the conversion price of its convertible bonds, changing from RMB 4.38 per share to RMB 4.29 per share, effective June 26, 2025 [1][3] - The adjustment is due to the company's planned distribution of cash dividends, where shareholders will receive RMB 0.87 per 10 shares [3] Group 1 - The previous conversion price of the convertible bonds was RMB 4.38 per share [1] - The new conversion price after adjustment will be RMB 4.29 per share [1][3] - The adjustment date for the conversion price is set for June 26, 2025 [1][3] Group 2 - The company will distribute cash dividends to shareholders at a rate of RMB 0.87 per 10 shares, which is inclusive of tax [3] - The adjustment to the conversion price is in accordance with the regulations set forth in the company's bond issuance prospectus [1][3] - The company will disclose the details of the conversion price adjustment on the Shenzhen Stock Exchange and other designated media [2]

证券代码：000758 证券简称：中色股份 公告编号：2025-048 中国有色金属建设股份有限公司 本公司及董事会全体成员保证公告内容的真实、准确、完整，没有虚假记载、 误导性陈述或重大遗漏。 中国有色金属建设股份有限公司（以下简称"公司"）2024 年度利润分配 方案已获 2025 年 5 月 16 日召开的 2024 年年度股东大会审议通过，现将权益分 派事宜公告如下： 一、股东大会审议通过权益分派方案情况 年度利润分配预案》。公司 2024 年度利润分配方案为：以 1,992,841,364 股为基 数，向全体股东每 10 股派发现金红利 0.46 元（含税），现金红利分配总额为 分配预案公告披露之日至权益分派实施前，若公司股本由于股份回购、股权激励 行权等原因发生变动，公司将按照"现金分红总额固定不变"的原则调整每股现 金分红金额。具体内容详见公司于 2025 年 4 月 24 日在《中国证券报》《证券时 报》《上海证券报》《证券日报》和巨潮资讯网（www.cninfo.com.cn）上披露的 《关于 2024 年度利润分配预案的公告》（公告编号：2025-022）。 变化，公司已办理完成部分限制性 ...

Core Points - The company announced its 2024 profit distribution plan, proposing a cash dividend of RMB 0.87 per 10 shares, totaling RMB 325,170,862.88, based on a total share capital of 3,737,596,125 shares as of December 31, 2024 [1][2][4] - The record date for the dividend distribution is set for June 25, 2025, with the ex-dividend date on June 26, 2025, and the payment date also on June 26, 2025 [1][4] - The distribution will be adjusted if the total share capital changes before the implementation date, maintaining the fixed distribution ratio per share [1][2] Distribution Details - The cash dividend will be distributed to all shareholders registered with the China Securities Depository and Clearing Corporation Limited, Shenzhen Branch, as of the record date [1][4] - For Hong Kong market investors and foreign institutions, a different cash dividend of RMB 0.783 per 10 shares will be applied, with varying tax rates for different types of shareholders [2][3] - The company will not withhold individual income tax for certain shareholders, with tax obligations calculated based on the holding period upon stock transfer [2][3]