Core Viewpoint - The Fujian Provincial Government has issued a set of measures aimed at achieving a strong economic and social development start in the first quarter of 2026, focusing on boosting consumption, expanding effective investment, and supporting the real economy among other areas [1]. Group 1: Boosting Consumption - The measures emphasize the dual engines of consumption and investment to stimulate domestic demand, with specific policies to enhance spring consumption, upgrade service consumption, and promote trade-in programs for consumer goods [2]. - A budget of 15 million yuan is allocated for key consumption promotion activities, and 30 million yuan is designated for subsidies on new passenger vehicle purchases [2]. - Initiatives include cultural and sports events to drive consumer engagement, alongside simplifying subsidy application processes to ensure efficient delivery of benefits to businesses and consumers [2]. Group 2: Expanding Effective Investment - The measures outline goals for the first quarter, including completing 300 billion yuan in investments and starting over 500 key projects, with encouragement for continuous work during the Spring Festival [3]. - Plans include promoting over 600 projects with a total investment exceeding 600 billion yuan, focusing on infrastructure, modern industries, and public services [3]. - The government aims to enhance land use guarantees and streamline the approval process for key projects and public welfare initiatives [3]. Group 3: Supporting the Real Economy - The measures aim to stabilize and strengthen the industrial sector, with incentives for manufacturing enterprises that increase electricity consumption by over 6% year-on-year [4]. - Financial rewards are set for companies participating in supply-demand matching activities, and support is provided for the real estate sector to enhance housing quality and service [4]. Group 4: Enhancing Trade and Investment - The measures include strategies to support foreign trade enterprises in expanding markets and attracting foreign investment, with initiatives like full subsidies for exhibition fees for outbound trade groups [7]. - The government plans to conduct joint investment promotion activities during the Spring Festival, targeting overseas Chinese and business communities [8]. - Policies are also in place to stabilize agricultural production and ensure social welfare, with specific projects aimed at boosting employment and supporting rural communities [8].

证券研究报告 基金深度报告（R3） 基金市场 美国 ETF 投资生态全景（一）：市场发展趋势与 产品体系梳理 海外基金专题系列报告一 2026 年 01 月 12 日 上证指数-上证基金指数走势图 -2% 8% 18% 28% 38% 2025-01 2025-04 2025-07 2025-10 基金指数 上证指数 燕轶纯 分析师 执业证书编号:S0530521030001 yanyichun@hnchasing.com 相关报告 投资要点 请务必阅读正文之后的免责声明 主要指数表现（涨跌幅%） | 指数名称 | 60 日 | 年初至今 | | --- | --- | --- | | 上证指数 | 3.01 | 3.82 | | 中证基金 | 1.94 | 1.78 | | 股票基金 | 3.35 | 3.74 | | 混合基金 | 4.75 | 3.33 | | 债券基金 | 0.17 | 0.14 | | 货币基金 | 0.18 | 0.03 | | 1 美国 ETF | 的发展历程 | 4 | | --- | --- | --- | | 2 美国 ETF | 市场概况及发展趋势 | 4 | | 2.1 ...

证 券 研 究 报 告 【宏观快评】 部委年度会议的 6 大要点——政策周观察第 63 期 ❖ 近一周，其他值得关注的政策： 1、反内卷：1）1 月 8 日，财政部等关于调整光伏等产品出口退税政策的公告。 自 2026 年 4 月 1 日起，取消光伏等产品增值税出口退税。自 2026 年 4 月 1 日起至 2026 年 12 月 31 日，将电池产品的增值税出口退税率由 9%下调至 6%； 2027 年 1 月 1 日起，取消电池产品增值税出口退税。2）1 月 7 日，工信部等 部门联合召开动力和储能电池行业座谈会，部署规范产业竞争秩序工作。 2、1 月 8 日，工信部等印发《"人工智能+制造"专项行动实施意见》。提出到 2027 年，推动 3-5 个通用大模型在制造业深度应用，推出 1000 个高水平工业 智能体。 ❖ 风险提示：政策更新不及时。 ❖ 宏观研究 邮箱：zhangyu3@hcyjs.com 执业编号：S0360518090001 证券分析师：陆银波 邮箱：luyinbo@hcyjs.com 执业编号：S0360519100003 证券分析师：袁玲玲 邮箱：yuanlingling@hcyjs ...

2012 31 | 影响因素 | 主要逻辑 | | --- | --- | | 回顾 | 元旦假期后的首周国内商品大幅上涨，工业品、农产品均出现了普涨的行情。主要原因，一是美国对委内瑞拉的军事行动引发市场对于大国之间资源争夺的预期； | | | 二是，美国数据好坏参半，美联储降息仍有空间；三是，国内扩大内需+反内卷政策共同推动商品价格重心的抬升。 | | 海外 | 1）ISM公布的数据显示，美国12月ISM制造业PMI降至47.9，创2024年以来最大萎缩幅度，连续10个月低于50荣枯线，表明制造业持续收缩。12月ISM非制造业 指数升至54.4，显著高于预期与前值，反映出美国的服务业的景气度在上升，服务业的扩张一定程度上对冲了制造业疲软对整体经济的拖累。短期来看，制造业 | | | 疲软预计仍将延续，难以快速出现拐点。中长期来看，关税不确定性缓解及相关法案落地或为资本支出提供支撑，但需注意制造业持续疲软对整体经济的影响。2） | | | 美国12月ADP就业人数新增4.1万人，相比11月份减少的2.9万人有所回升，但少于预期的4.9万人，12月份就业出现反弹，主要由教育和健康服务业以及休闲和酒 | | | ...

Core Viewpoint - The legislative process of the Value-Added Tax (VAT) Law has focused on the issue of input tax deduction for loan services, which directly impacts corporate financing costs and tax burdens. The VAT Law will take effect on January 1, 2026, with the implementation regulations published on December 30, 2025, clarifying current rules and leaving room for future policy optimization [1]. Group 1: Loan Service Input Tax Deduction - The current VAT system has prohibited the deduction of input tax on loan services, which has been a contentious issue, particularly for capital-intensive industries like finance and real estate, increasing corporate financing costs [2]. - The deletion of the prohibition on input tax deduction for loan services in the VAT Law aligns with the logic of VAT reform and signals a positive policy adjustment, allowing companies to reasonably expect future deductions [2][3]. - The implementation regulations maintain the current prohibition on input tax deduction for loan services, indicating that there will be no comprehensive opening in the short term, which has garnered widespread attention from businesses [3]. Group 2: Future Policy Optimization - The temporary nature of the current prohibition on loan service deductions is emphasized, with a commitment from fiscal and tax authorities to evaluate the policy's effectiveness over time, suggesting potential future adjustments based on economic conditions and administrative capabilities [4]. - The legislative framework allows for easier policy adjustments at the State Council level without needing to amend the law, which could facilitate gradual opening of deductions based on industry and scenario trials [4]. Group 3: Non-Compensated Lending - The new VAT Law provides significant benefits by removing the requirement for non-compensated loans to be treated as taxable sales, which previously applied only to non-group enterprises [5][6]. - Starting January 1, 2026, non-compensated loans between enterprises will no longer fall under the VAT taxable scope, significantly reducing the tax burden associated with such transactions [6]. - Companies must remain aware that corporate income tax policies remain unchanged, and non-compensated loans must adhere to independent transaction principles to avoid tax complications [6].

Core Viewpoint - The expansion of China's service industry opening-up pilot program is accelerating, with the recent issuance of a roadmap for nine cities, indicating a significant push towards enhancing service sector openness and reform [1][2]. Group 1: Pilot Program Achievements - The national service industry opening-up pilot program has shown remarkable results since its initiation in 2015, with 412.6 billion USD in foreign investment absorbed by 11 provinces and cities in 2024, accounting for 50.2% of the national total in the service sector [2]. - The new pilot cities are expected to promote service industry openness, with the central economic work conference emphasizing the need for orderly expansion of self-initiated openness in the service sector [2]. Group 2: Differentiated Exploration - The pilot cities are encouraged to develop tailored tasks based on their unique resources and industrial strengths, fostering innovation and complementary achievements [3]. - For instance, Ningbo is focusing on technology services and digital trade, while Dalian aims to leverage its position as an international shipping center to support the revitalization of Northeast China [3][4]. Group 3: Project Implementation for Regional Development - The pilot program aims to facilitate regional development through the implementation of specific projects, with the Ministry of Commerce emphasizing the importance of practical execution and coordination among departments [6][7]. - The Ministry will enhance communication with business entities and conduct evaluations of the pilot program's effectiveness to promote high-quality experiences and innovations [7].

Core Viewpoint - The expansion of China's service industry opening-up pilot program is accelerating, with the recent issuance of a roadmap for nine cities, indicating a significant push towards enhancing service sector openness and reform [1][2]. Group 1: Pilot Program Achievements - The national service industry opening-up pilot program has shown significant results since its initiation in 2015, with 412.6 billion USD in foreign investment absorbed by 11 pilot cities in 2024, accounting for 50.2% of the national total in the service sector [2]. - The new pilot cities, including Dalian, Ningbo, and others, are expected to promote self-directed opening in the service sector, leveraging their unique advantages and focusing on key areas such as telecommunications, healthcare, and finance [2][3]. Group 2: Differentiated Exploration - The pilot cities are encouraged to develop tailored tasks based on their unique resources and industrial foundations, promoting innovation and complementary achievements across regions [3]. - For instance, Ningbo is focusing on technology services and international shipping, while Dalian aims to enhance its role as an international shipping center in Northeast Asia [3][4]. Group 3: Project Implementation for Regional Development - The Ministry of Commerce plans to deepen the service industry opening-up pilot program, coordinating with relevant departments to ensure effective implementation of the pilot tasks and promote project landing to stimulate regional development [6][7]. - The program aims to enhance service consumption, moving from physical goods to services, and to cultivate new development momentum while shaping international competitive advantages [6].

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Not provided in the given content Core Views - The report analyzes the market conditions of various commodities and financial products, including energy, metals, chemicals, agricultural products, and financial derivatives. It provides insights into supply - demand dynamics, price trends, and investment suggestions for each category [2][3][4] Summary by Categories Energy - **Crude Oil**: Tensions in the Iranian geopolitical situation and the US seizure of Venezuelan oil tankers have increased short - term upward pressure on oil prices, but inventory pressure and supply surplus limit the upside [2] - **Fuel Oil & Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: Geopolitical factors have led to wide - range fluctuations in fuel oil prices. High - sulfur fuel oil may see increased demand, while low - sulfur fuel oil faces supply - side pressure [22] - **Bitumen**: Oil price rebounds have not been fully followed by bitumen. Venezuelan oil supply disruptions may impact bitumen raw materials in the future [23] Metals - **Precious Metals**: With mixed US employment data and ongoing global geopolitical unrest, precious metals are challenging previous highs [3] - **Base Metals**: - **Copper**: Prices are affected by US employment data, geopolitical situations, and domestic production and inventory. An option strategy has been proposed [4] - **Aluminum**: Short - term price movements are driven by funds, and there is a divergence from fundamentals. High profits may prompt aluminum plants to sell for hedging [5] - **Zinc**: Consumption is expected to be front - loaded in 2026, but the market may range - bound due to cost support and supply - side factors [8] - **Lead**: The market is range - bound, and attention should be paid to cost - related support [9] - **Nickel & Stainless Steel**: The market is in a state of shock, with inventory changes and policy sentiment influencing prices [10] - **Tin**: LME tin prices have risen, and domestic prices are supported. Attention is on inventory changes [11] - **Lithium Carbonate**: Prices are oscillating at a high level, with supply - demand factors driving the market [12] - **Industrial Silicon**: The market is expected to be weak due to supply - demand imbalances [13] - **Polysilicon**: A new policy has changed the trading logic, and prices may seek cost support [14] Ferrous Metals - **Steel (Rebar & Hot - Rolled Coil)**: Steel prices are oscillating, with demand and inventory showing different trends. Steel mill profits are improving, and iron - water production is rising [15] - **Iron Ore**: The market has rebounded, but there are risks of high - level volatility due to supply - demand and geopolitical factors [16] - **Coke & Coking Coal**: Both are expected to have a relatively strong and oscillating trend, with considerations for supply - demand and policy factors [17][18] - **Silicomanganese & Ferrosilicon**: For both, it is recommended to buy on dips, considering supply - demand and policy impacts [19][20] Chemicals - **Urea**: The market is expected to oscillate strongly within a range as spring agricultural demand approaches [24] - **Methanol**: Import expectations are reduced, but high coastal inventories and downstream feedback may suppress the market [25] - **Pure Benzene**: The short - term market is expected to oscillate, and a positive spread strategy may be considered in the medium - term [26] - **Styrene**: The market is in a state of consolidation due to cost and inventory factors [27] - **Polypropylene, Plastic, & Propylene**: Market sentiment varies, with supply - demand factors influencing prices [28] - **PVC & Caustic Soda**: PVC may have short - term trading opportunities and long - term price increases. Caustic soda is oscillating, with supply - demand and profit factors at play [29] - **PX & PTA**: Demand will decline during the Spring Festival, but cost support from oil prices exists. PX has a strong medium - term outlook [30] - **Ethylene Glycol**: The market will be under pressure in the short - term and may improve in the second quarter, but long - term pressure remains [31] Agricultural Products - **Soybeans & Soybean Meal**: The market is waiting for the USDA report. South American production expectations and weather are key factors, and prices may be weak [36] - **Edible Oils (Soybean Oil & Palm Oil)**: The market is expected to oscillate, with attention on palm oil export tax policies and inventory [37] - **Canola & Canola Oil**: The market is expected to oscillate weakly, with the focus on the impact of the Canadian Prime Minister's visit to China [38] - **Soybean No. 1**: The futures contract is in a downward trend, and attention should be paid to policies and market guidance [39] - **Corn**: The futures market is expected to oscillate widely, with attention on sales progress and auctions [40] - **Livestock & Poultry**: - **Pigs**: Short - term price support may come from secondary fattening, but long - term supply pressure exists [41] - **Eggs**: The market is expected to be strong in the short - term, and a long - position strategy is recommended [42] - **Cotton**: The market is expected to adjust, with attention on supply - demand and policy factors [43] - **Sugar**: The market is oscillating, with differences in international and domestic production progress [44] - **Apples**: The futures price has rebounded, and attention should be paid to demand and inventory removal [45] - **Wood**: The price is at a low level, and the market is recommended to be observed [46] - **Pulp**: The market is oscillating, and short - term upward potential is limited [47] Financial Derivatives - **Container Shipping Index (European Line)**: A new policy may push up short - term freight rates, but the long - term impact is uncertain [21] Financial Markets - **Stock Index**: The A - share market is expected to oscillate strongly, with growth and cyclical styles potentially outperforming [48] - **Treasury Bonds**: The market is slightly down, and attention should be paid to the flattening of the yield curve [49]

Core Viewpoint - The Chinese service industry is experiencing accelerated opening and expansion, with the recent issuance of a roadmap for comprehensive pilot projects in nine cities, aimed at enhancing foreign investment and promoting reform and development in the service sector [4][8]. Group 1: Pilot Project Implementation - The comprehensive pilot project for service industry opening has shown significant results since its initiation in 2015, with 412.6 billion USD in foreign investment absorbed by 11 provinces and cities in 2024, accounting for 50.2% of the national total in the service sector [4][8]. - The new pilot cities, including Dalian, Ningbo, and others, are encouraged to implement common tasks from the previously issued plan while also developing unique tasks based on their regional advantages and industry characteristics [4][5]. Group 2: Regional Differentiation and Focus Areas - The pilot cities are urged to adopt differentiated exploration strategies tailored to their unique resources and industrial foundations, promoting innovation and collaboration across regions [5]. - Specific support is provided to various cities: Ningbo is focusing on advanced manufacturing and cross-border trade, Dalian is enhancing its role in Northeast revitalization, and other cities are targeting areas such as cultural trade, marine technology, and biomedicine [6][7]. Group 3: Consumer Trends and Policy Implementation - There is a notable shift in consumer behavior from physical goods to service consumption, necessitating further opening of the service sector to cultivate new growth drivers and enhance international competitiveness [8]. - The Ministry of Commerce plans to strengthen communication with business entities, provide targeted policy guidance, and evaluate the effectiveness of pilot projects to ensure successful implementation and promote high-quality development in the service industry [9].

Group 1: Home Appliances Industry - The report emphasizes the importance of capturing opportunities at the bottom of the consumer sector, focusing on the "dividend +" allocation direction as high-end consumption and certain mass-market products show signs of recovery [1][5] - The report highlights that the market is gradually returning its attention to the consumer sector due to the implementation of national subsidy policies and the demand for high-quality investments, although high valuations and non-mainstream sectors remain less attractive [1][5] - Key recommendations include focusing on companies with strong business models, high dividends, stable performance, and favorable valuations, such as Haier Smart Home, Midea Group, and Gree Electric [3][5] Group 2: Commercial Aerospace and Power Equipment Industry - The commercial aerospace sector in China is characterized by grand planning and significant potential, with expectations for a transition from "hundreds" to "thousands" of low-orbit satellites between 2026 and 2027, marking a shift to mass production and high-density launches [6] - The report suggests that the aerospace cable industry, which requires high environmental performance and reliability, is expected to see significant growth due to the increasing frequency of rocket launches, with recommendations to focus on companies like Hualing Cable [6][7] - The report also discusses the importance of rocket fuel tanks, which represent a significant cost in rocket structures, and suggests monitoring companies like Taisheng Wind Energy for investment opportunities [7] Group 3: Inflation and Economic Indicators - The report notes that the Consumer Price Index (CPI) increased by 0.8% year-on-year in December, the highest since March 2023, indicating a recovery in prices [10][11] - The Producer Price Index (PPI) showed a month-on-month increase of 0.2% in December, with a narrowing year-on-year decline, suggesting a potential acceleration in nominal GDP growth [11][12] - The report anticipates that the trends of rising inflation and nominal GDP growth will continue into 2026, supported by improving economic indicators [11][12]