gtaxinstitute@essence.com.cn 综合晨报 国投期货研究院 (原油) 隔夜国际油价小幅下跌，布伦特09合约跌0.4%。二季度全球石油库存累增2.7%，较一季度的2%边 际加快,三季度第一周在原油去库、成品油累库中总体库存下降0.3%;从平衡表预期来看,三季度 旺季石油库存至少累积速度将放缓。5月以来油价自底部回升持续受到旺季采购预期支撑，但近期原 油现货升贴水及主产品裂解价差均未进一步走强,或显示强现实因素对油价的上行驱动减弱。综合 考虑俄乌地缘风险短期未超预期，以及美国对欧盟、加拿大、墨西哥及巴西的对等关税上调风险， 我们将本周原油市场评级从偏强调整为中性震荡，布伦特突破70美元/桶后的进一步上行空间始终受 限。 【责金属】 隔夜美国公布6月CP1反弹至2.7%符合预期，但核心CP1年率和月率均略低于预期，数据发布后贵金 属有所回落，市场认为该数据不足以改变美联储观望立场。美国关税政策截止日前各方谈判仍有空 间,风险情绪可能反复,责金属震荡为主。今晚关注美国PPI数据。 (铜) 隔夜铜价震荡， 伦铜暂时收阳在MA60日均线。 美国6月CP1同比上涨，关税影响逐渐显现，且8月不 确定性 ...

智通财经APP获悉，美国国债收益率持续在一个月高位附近震荡，市场正静待最新生产者价格数据（PPI）以判断贸易关税对通胀的实际影 响。截至周三，10年期美债收益率在前日上涨5个基点后稳定在4.48%一线，30年期品种则维持5%以上高位运行。 周二公布的6月通胀数据已显现初步信号：特朗普政府大规模加征关税的政策正逐步传导至物价端，这导致市场对美联储降息的预期明显降 温，债券市场买盘随之减弱。尽管整体通胀数据低于市场预期，但货币市场数据显示，交易员目前认为美联储9月降息的概率已不足五成。 曾被视为经济惩罚手段的关税政策正引发市场重新评估。杰富瑞国际首席欧洲策略师莫希特·库马尔指出，当前需重点关注周三公布的美国6 月生产者价格指数(PPI)是否进一步印证关税对通胀的推升作用。 他分析称："随着关税效应持续释放，未来数月通胀水平可能持续攀升，同时就业市场数据或呈现走弱趋势。"尽管周二公布的消费端数据表 面优于预期，但细节显示部分商品价格已出现关税传导迹象。 据彭博经济预测，6月美国总体PPI将环比上涨0.3%，核心PPI(剔除食品和能源)预计上涨0.2%，均较上月0.1%的增幅有所扩大。 与此同时，美联储将于周三发布《 ...

Core Insights - The article emphasizes that Qifu Technology is becoming a key partner in the digital transformation of Chinese banks by integrating financial intelligence with business scenarios [1][7] - Qifu Technology's financial intelligence platform, Deepbank, and its various AI applications are designed to meet the real business needs of banks [2][7] Group 1: Financial Intelligence Development - Qifu Technology launched its self-developed financial intelligence platform Deepbank, which includes four core applications: AI Marketing Assistant, AI Approval Officer, AI Decision Assistant, and AI Compliance Assistant [2][3] - The financial intelligence system is built on a heterogeneous large model platform and a multi-agent collaborative framework, enabling deep understanding of financial semantics and user behavior [2][4] Group 2: Comprehensive Credit Solutions - The upgraded "Qifu Credit Super Intelligent Agent" includes five modules that cover the entire credit business process, enhancing decision-making capabilities [3][6] - The "End-to-End Credit Decision" module utilizes over 700 models and more than 1 billion historical decision data points to accurately assess user risk [3][4] Group 3: Technological Empowerment - Qifu Technology employs four technological engines: data flywheel, multi-modal fusion, self-evolution, and multi-agent collaboration to enhance the intelligence of its financial agents [4][5] - The AI Approval Officer can automatically extract key information from user applications and provide instant recommendations, significantly improving efficiency [5][6] Group 4: Practical Applications and Collaborations - Qifu Technology has demonstrated the effectiveness of its financial intelligence through partnerships with banks, leading to improved customer acquisition and reduced compliance risks [6][7] - A strategic cooperation agreement was signed with Guangdong Huaxing Bank to explore deep applications of AI in credit business, showcasing a collaborative model for digital transformation in banking [6][7]

Group 1: Paradigm Shift and Global Positioning - Hong Kong is at a critical point of "paradigm shift," needing to actively engage with global opportunities and challenges [1] - The Financial Services Development Council (FSDC) aims to lead in capital connectivity, green transformation, and digital revolution, providing an indispensable "super value layer" to the global financial system [1] Group 2: Expansion into Emerging Markets - Hong Kong will launch the world's largest Gulf market ETF in October 2024, with the first ETF investing in Chinese Hong Kong stocks listed on the Saudi exchange raising over 10 billion HKD [2] - The China Securities Regulatory Commission has introduced measures to support Hong Kong's capital market, expanding the range of eligible products for "ETF Connect" and reducing the minimum shareholding requirement for Hong Kong-listed stocks [2] - New leveraged and inverse products tracking Samsung Electronics were launched, allowing investors to capture short-term volatility in the Korean market [2] Group 3: Green and Hybrid Finance - Hong Kong has over a thousand family offices, making it the most densely populated network globally, driving demand for hybrid finance and impact investing [3] - The city is actively developing an "overseas carbon credit hub" backed by the booming carbon market in mainland China [3] Group 4: Digital Asset Development - The Hong Kong government is committed to becoming a global innovation center for digital assets, with a regulatory framework for stablecoins set to launch on August 1 [4] - The FSDC emphasizes that stablecoins should not be treated as short-term speculative assets, highlighting the importance of a long-term perspective in digital asset markets [4] Group 5: Offshore Asset Center and Economic Resilience - Hong Kong can leverage the weakening US dollar to enhance its risk management functions for RMB and other currencies, attracting global capital [5] - Despite short-term pressures on sectors like dining and retail, Hong Kong's diverse economic structure, led by finance, continues to show growth in IPOs, insurance, banking, and asset management [5]

25只新型浮动费率基金成立 募集规模近250亿元 7月16日，华商基金发布公告称，华商致远回报混合基金成立，募集规模20.82亿元。包括华商致远回报 混合基金在内，截至7月16日，全市场已有25只新型浮动费率基金成立，募集总规模为247.64亿元。 （同花顺） 监管摸排"24%+权益"产品 消金行业开启自查 距《关于加强商业银行互联网助贷业务管理提升金融服务质效的通知》正式实施还有不到3个月的时 间，"24%+权益类服务"成为助贷行业的一大热门业务模式。记者从业内多个独立信源处获悉，7月11 日，监管正式对31家消费金融公司发出关于会员权益的调研通知。调研内容主要包括四个方面：一是消 金公司自主提供权益服务情况，二是合作助贷平台提供会员权益服务情况，三是影响分析，四是存在的 问题分析。"调研涉及的问题非常细致，基本涵盖了行业目前的'24%+权益'产品可能带来的影响及问 题。"有消金机构中高层表示，已在加速研究相关政策，来应对未来监管针对会员权益可能出台的相关 政策。 (21财经) 机构：英伟达H20出口解禁助力需求释放 预估中国外购AI芯片比例将回升至49% 英国巴克莱银行因金融犯罪风险管控不力被罚4200万 ...

中新网北京7月16日电 (陶思阅 庞无忌)黑石和励正集团近日宣布达成一项长期战略合作伙伴关系。 这也将为黑石当前管理的2370亿美元第三方保险资产平台(涵盖投资级私募债权、流动性债权及其他策 略)注入新的资金来源。 黑石债权和保险(以下简称"黑石")是国际知名债权投资平台之一。投资领域包括私募投资级债权、资产 抵押贷款、公开市场投资级与高收益债券、可持续资源投资等。励正集团是英国的金融服务集团及全球 主要投资机构之一。截至2024年，该集团资产管理规模达1.1万亿英镑，其中约44%为国际业务。 黑石与励正集团的合作将整合双方在债权平台的优势，提升在关键市场和核心渠道的资产管理能力。励 正集团的年金业务将借力黑石的私募债权发起平台，接入以美国市场为主的多元化投资级资产池。励正 集团拟将其未来新增年金业务资金流的10%投入此项合作。 励正集团首席执行官 Antonio Simões表示，励正集团与黑石的合作伙伴关系，将对励正集团在保险、投 资和资产发掘方面的能力形成有益补充，进一步巩固在养老金风险转移市场的领先地位。 黑石总裁兼首席运营官Jon Gray说，此次与励正集团的合作，将为私募债权市场带来创新解决方案。 ...

随着国家税费政策持续发力，如何让政策红利直达市场主体？如何帮助企业有效规避涉税风险？国家税 务总局贵州省税务局大企业税收管理部门以主动服务破题，将监管关口前移，通过一系列创新举措，积 极引导企业提升合规经营能力，为企业发展注入"税动力"，共同营造公平、透明的税收营商环境。 政策服务"精准灌溉"，打通合规"最先一公里" 长效机制"协同共建"，画好发展"同心圆" 建立常态化税企沟通机制，通过定期召开座谈会、实地走访调研等形式，面对面听取企业诉求和建议， 2025年上半年，全省大企业部门共走访大企业132户，开展7次线下座谈交流，解决企业诉求97个。大力 推广"乐企"、电子税务局等智慧服务通道，优化办税流程，让数据多跑路、企业少跑腿，降低企业合规 遵从成本，提升办税体验。制定金融、磷化工行业涉税清单防控手册，为企业提供合规引导和支持。 贵州省税务局大企业税收服务和管理部门负责人表示，引导企业合规经营是一项长期性、系统性工程。 未来将持续深化精准监管和精细服务，不断创新服务模式，拓展辅导的深度和广度。（国家税务总局贵 州省税务局） 为本省大企业配备"首席联络员"，提供"一户一策"专属服务，及时响应大企业个性化涉税咨询 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The stock market shows a high - level oscillating market trend with a bullish bias for the Shanghai Composite Index, large - cap blue - chip stocks, small - and medium - cap stocks, and ChiNext stocks [3]. - The implied volatility of financial options gradually declines to a relatively low level around the mean [3]. - For ETF options, it is suitable to construct covered strategies, neutral double - selling strategies, and vertical spread combination strategies; for stock index options, it is suitable to construct neutral double - selling strategies and arbitrage strategies between option synthetic futures long or short positions and futures short or long positions [3]. 3. Summaries by Related Contents 3.1 Financial Market Index Overview - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3,505.00, down 14.65 points or 0.42%, with a trading volume of 646.9 billion yuan and an increase of 23.7 billion yuan [4]. - The Shenzhen Component Index closed at 10,744.56, up 60.04 points or 0.56%, with a trading volume of 965.2 billion yuan and an increase of 129.6 billion yuan [4]. - The Shanghai 50 Index closed at 2,747.23, down 10.58 points or 0.38%, with a trading volume of 79.8 billion yuan and a decrease of 10.2 billion yuan [4]. - The CSI 300 Index closed at 4,019.06, up 1.40 points or 0.03%, with a trading volume of 353.5 billion yuan and an increase of 32.1 billion yuan [4]. - The CSI 500 Index closed at 6,018.76, down 2.10 points or 0.03%, with a trading volume of 246.1 billion yuan and an increase of 19.8 billion yuan [4]. - The CSI 1000 Index closed at 6,442.83, down 19.47 points or 0.30%, with a trading volume of 347.4 billion yuan and an increase of 44.7 billion yuan [4]. 3.2 Option - related ETF Market Overview - The Shanghai 50 ETF closed at 2.855, down 0.014 or 0.49%, with a trading volume of 6.3237 million shares and an increase of 6.2715 million shares, and a trading value of 1.806 billion yuan and an increase of 0.306 billion yuan [5]. - The Shanghai 300 ETF closed at 4.078, unchanged, with a trading volume of 8.0748 million shares and an increase of 7.9928 million shares, and a trading value of 3.293 billion yuan and a decrease of 0.058 billion yuan [5]. - The Shanghai 500 ETF closed at 6.077, down 0.002 or 0.03%, with a trading volume of 1.5826 million shares and an increase of 1.5710 million shares, and a trading value of 0.960 billion yuan and an increase of 0.249 billion yuan [5]. - The Huaxia Science and Technology Innovation 50 ETF closed at 1.048, up 0.002 or 0.19%, with a trading volume of 35.4279 million shares and an increase of 35.1611 million shares, and a trading value of 3.699 billion yuan and an increase of 0.905 billion yuan [5]. - The E Fund Science and Technology Innovation 50 ETF closed at 1.022, up 0.003 or 0.29%, with a trading volume of 7.1268 million shares and an increase of 7.0710 million shares, and a trading value of 0.726 billion yuan and an increase of 0.156 billion yuan [5]. - The Shenzhen 300 ETF closed at 4.213, up 0.003 or 0.07%, with a trading volume of 1.4781 million shares and an increase of 1.4676 million shares, and a trading value of 0.622 billion yuan and an increase of 0.182 billion yuan [5]. - The Shenzhen 500 ETF closed at 2.430, unchanged, with a trading volume of 0.7106 million shares and an increase of 0.7033 million shares, and a trading value of 0.173 billion yuan and a decrease of 0.003 billion yuan [5]. - The Shenzhen 100 ETF closed at 2.826, up 0.022 or 0.78%, with a trading volume of 0.3284 million shares and an increase of 0.3263 million shares, and a trading value of 0.093 billion yuan and an increase of 0.033 billion yuan [5]. - The ChiNext ETF closed at 2.212, up 0.035 or 1.61%, with a trading volume of 14.2732 million shares and an increase of 14.2066 million shares, and a trading value of 3.152 billion yuan and an increase of 1.703 billion yuan [5]. 3.3 Option Factor - Volume and Position PCR - For the Shanghai 50 ETF option, the trading volume was 1.6617 million contracts, an increase of 0.6572 million contracts; the open interest was 1.5594 million contracts, a decrease of 0.0009 million contracts; the trading volume PCR was 0.99, an increase of 0.13; the open interest PCR was 1.07, a decrease of 0.10 [6]. - Similar data are provided for other option varieties such as the Shanghai 300 ETF, Shanghai 500 ETF, etc. [6] 3.4 Option Factor - Pressure and Support Points - For the Shanghai 50 ETF, the pressure point is 2.90 and the support point is 2.80 [8]. - For other option varieties, their respective pressure and support points are also given [8] 3.5 Option Factor - Implied Volatility - For the Shanghai 50 ETF option, the at - the - money implied volatility was 12.74%, the weighted implied volatility was 13.88%, a decrease of 1.28%, the annual average was 15.73%, the call implied volatility was 14.32%, the put implied volatility was 13.33%, the HISV20 was 12.45%, and the implied - historical volatility difference was 1.42 [11]. - Similar data are provided for other option varieties [11] 3.6 Strategy and Suggestions - The financial option sector is divided into large - cap blue - chip stocks, small - and medium - sized boards, and the ChiNext board. Different sectors and corresponding option varieties are specified [13]. - For each sector, option strategies and suggestions are provided based on the analysis of the underlying asset market, option factor research, and option strategy recommendations [13]. - For the financial stock sector (Shanghai 50 ETF, Shanghai 50), directional strategies suggest constructing a bullish option bull spread combination strategy; volatility strategies suggest constructing a seller - neutral strategy [14]. - Similar strategies are provided for other sectors such as the large - cap blue - chip stock sector, small - and medium - sized board sector, and ChiNext board sector [14][15][16]

点击图片▲立即参与 1. 本文内容精选自2025年6月30日《每天听见吴晓波》的音频，会员可收听全部内 容，非会员可试听前1分钟。 【点击此处，收听音频】 2. 6月24日—7月25日期间购买《每天听见吴晓波》，可享"买1年得2年"的福利，还 送定制笔记本1本。 【点击此处，参与活动】 口述 / 吴晓波 （微信公众号：吴晓波频道） 过去几年，每年年终秀之前，我都会邀请几十位经济学者朋友，询问他们对于未来一年经济走 势的判断。在很多年份里，这些学者们的意见分歧很大，比如两年多前预测2023年的经济走势 时，看好、看平、唱衰的观点各占了三分之一。 但是到今天，如果你再问这些经济学者"对于未来半年到一年的经济怎么看"，我想答案可能会 一致很多。大多数人都会认可这样一个观点，就是全球经济正在驶进一个异常颠簸的水域。 报告把2025年全球经济增长的预期从1月初的2.7%下调到了2.3%。和过去几十年相比，这个增 速只比2009年金融危机和2020年疫情衰退时期高一点。 这意味着，2020年代有可能成为自上个世纪60年代以来经济表现最差的十年。 世界银行也同步 下调了近70%的经济体今年的增速预期，其中美国下调0.9个百 ...

Market Overview - The Hong Kong stock market opened high but closed lower, with the Hang Seng Index down by 0.29%, the Hang Seng China Enterprises Index down by 0.18%, and the Hang Seng Tech Index down by 0.24% [1][2] - All three indices reached new highs since April during the trading session [1] Sector Performance - Major technology stocks mostly declined, with Meituan down 1.66%, Netease down 1%, and Xiaomi, JD.com, and Tencent also falling, while Baidu and Alibaba saw gains [2] - Large financial stocks, including banks, insurance, and brokerage firms, performed poorly, and sectors related to "anti-involution" saw significant declines, particularly in construction materials, cement, and steel [2] - Conversely, education stocks surged due to a national initiative for large-scale vocational skills training, and cryptocurrency-related stocks rebounded in the afternoon [2][11] - Biopharmaceutical stocks continued their upward trend, and semiconductor stocks rose as Nvidia announced a resumption of chip sales to China [2] Notable Stock Movements - Kintone International saw a drop of over 7%, while NIO, Meituan, and BYD Electronics fell over 1%. Conversely, Tongcheng Travel rose over 3%, and Tencent Music and Kuaishou increased by over 2% [4][5] - Real estate stocks declined, with Midea Real Estate down over 5% and several other major developers falling by over 3% [6] - Coal stocks experienced significant drops, with Anyu Asia and Mongolia Energy down over 6% [7] Tourism and Education Stocks - Tourism-related stocks were active, with Tongcheng Travel rising over 5% and other travel companies following suit [8] - The government announced a large-scale vocational skills training initiative, leading to a collective rise in education stocks, including China Oriental Education and Zhonghui Group, both up over 3% [10] Cryptocurrency Stocks - Cryptocurrency-related stocks saw significant gains, with Blue Ocean Interactive up over 25% and Boya Interactive up over 9% [11][12] Individual Stock Highlights - Weiyali resumed trading and saw a dramatic increase of 918.4% at one point, closing with a gain of 288.34% [13] - China San San Media rose over 72%, with a month-to-date increase of 378%, following plans to apply for a stablecoin license [17] Capital Flows - Southbound funds recorded a net inflow of 1.603 billion HKD, with the Shanghai-Hong Kong Stock Connect seeing a net buy of 2.009 billion HKD [21] Market Outlook - Huatai Securities indicated that market volatility may increase, with the importance of sector rotation rising. They suggested focusing on sectors with higher profitability and safety margins in the short term, such as food and beverage, personal care, and finance [23]