研究中心农产品团队 2026/02/06 | 玉米/淀粉 | | | 玉米 | | | | | 淀粉 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 日期 长春 | 锦州 | 潍坊 | 蛇口 | 基差 | 贸易利润 进口盈亏 | 黑龙江 | 潍坊 | 基差 | 加工利润 | | 2026/01/30 2190 | 2290 | 2300 | 2440 | 19 | 20 323 | 2750 | 2820 | 174 | -98 | | 2026/02/02 2180 | 2280 | 2300 | 2420 | 19 | 10 294 | 2750 | 2820 | 182 | -78 | | 2026/02/03 2180 | 2270 | 2288 | 2410 | 3 | 10 295 | 2750 | 2820 | 186 | -70 | | 2026/02/04 2180 | 2270 | 2288 | 2410 | 7 | 10 289 | 2750 | 2820 | 185 | -83 | | 2026/0 ...

Core Viewpoint - The "Heilongjiang Premium" brand is prominently displayed at major international airports in Shanghai, Guangzhou, and Shenzhen, aiming to enhance brand influence through high-frequency and multi-dimensional advertising over the next six months [1][6]. Group 1: Brand Promotion Strategy - "Heilongjiang Premium" will utilize multiple advertising formats, including LED and LCD screens, to showcase high-quality agricultural products such as rice, grains, and mushrooms at key areas in the airports [5][6]. - The brand will achieve extensive exposure by placing advertisements in high-traffic areas, including baggage claim and security checkpoints, as well as on over one million Southern Airlines boarding passes [6][8]. Group 2: Agricultural Background - Heilongjiang Province has maintained the highest grain production in China for 16 consecutive years, contributing to one out of every nine bowls of rice consumed nationwide [3]. - The brand focuses on presenting the best, greenest, and safest agricultural products, emphasizing the quality of its offerings sourced from the fertile black soil of the region [5]. Group 3: Market Impact - The strategic placement of "Heilongjiang Premium" in major airports leverages the daily high passenger flow and the presence of high-end business travelers, enhancing brand recognition and reputation [8]. - This initiative is expected to positively impact agricultural brand development and facilitate the connection between production and sales [8].

Group 1: Agricultural Products Market - The national edible agricultural product market price increased by 0.2% from the previous week, while the production material market price rose by 0.9% [1] - Average wholesale prices for six types of fruits saw slight increases, with bananas, citrus, and grapes rising by 3.4%, 1.2%, and 1.1% respectively [1] - Poultry product wholesale prices generally increased, with eggs and white-feathered chickens rising by 2.2% and 0.1% respectively [1] - Aquatic product wholesale prices continued to rise, with grass carp, crucian carp, and common carp increasing by 1.3%, 1.2%, and 0.9% respectively [1] - Meat wholesale prices saw slight increases, with pork priced at 19.13 yuan per kilogram, up by 0.2%, while lamb and beef rose by 0.7% and 0.2% respectively [1] - Grain and oil wholesale prices experienced minor fluctuations, with peanut oil increasing by 0.1%, while soybean oil, rapeseed oil, and flour remained stable, and rice decreased by 0.2% [1] - The average wholesale price of 30 types of vegetables was 5.69 yuan per kilogram, down by 1.0%, with spinach, cucumber, and eggplant decreasing by 5.0%, 5.0%, and 4.3% respectively [1] Group 2: Production Materials Market - Rubber prices saw a slight rebound, with synthetic rubber and natural rubber increasing by 3.4% and 2.4% respectively [2] - Non-ferrous metal prices experienced slight increases, with aluminum, zinc, and copper rising by 3.3%, 3.3%, and 2.2% respectively [2] - Basic chemical raw material prices were predominantly up, with sulfuric acid, polypropylene, and methanol increasing by 2.2%, 1.8%, and 1.1% respectively, while soda ash decreased by 0.3% [2] - Fertilizer prices showed a slight recovery, with urea and compound fertilizers rising by 0.4% and 0.1% respectively [2] - Finished oil wholesale prices slightly increased, with 92-octane gasoline and 95-octane gasoline rising by 0.5% and 0.4% respectively, while 0 diesel remained stable [2] - Coal prices remained stable with slight increases, where thermal coal was priced at 777 yuan per ton, while coking coal and anthracite increased by 0.2% and 0.1% respectively [2] - Steel prices saw slight declines, with channel steel, high-speed wire rod, and rebar priced at 3535 yuan, 3555 yuan, and 3361 yuan per ton, decreasing by 0.3%, 0.2%, and 0.1% respectively [2]

Core Viewpoint - The implementation opinion released by the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs emphasizes enhancing the effectiveness of agricultural support and protection policies to promote comprehensive rural revitalization and agricultural modernization [1] Group 1: Agricultural Support Policies - The opinion highlights the need to coordinate the production, storage, and import of agricultural products to maintain reasonable prices for key agricultural products such as grain [1] - It calls for the establishment of a mechanism to guarantee the income of grain farmers, strengthening support through pricing, subsidies, and insurance [1] - The minimum purchase prices for rice and wheat will be reasonably determined, and policies for land fertility protection subsidies, corn and soybean producer subsidies, and rice subsidies will be implemented stably [1] Group 2: Agricultural Insurance and Financial Support - The opinion promotes the expansion of agricultural insurance products, increasing the coverage of complete cost insurance and planting income insurance for the three major grain crops [1] - It supports the development of insurance for advantageous and characteristic agricultural products at the local level and aims to improve the efficiency of insurance claims [1] - Special loan interest subsidies for grain and oil planting will be piloted, and support for major grain-producing counties will be increased [1] Group 3: Financial Management and Oversight - The management system for rural comprehensive reform transfer payment funds will be adjusted and optimized [1] - The opinion emphasizes the need to consolidate the results of special rectification of prominent issues in the use of rural revitalization funds and to promote regular oversight [1] - It aims to enhance the effectiveness of policy fund utilization [1]

新春将至，豫西卢氏深山里暖意涌动。满载500公斤有机核桃油的货车鸣笛启运，首次发往新西兰。 继香菇、连翘等特色农产品叩开国内高端市场大门后，卢氏有机品牌正式迈出闯荡国际市场的关键一 步。"这批核桃油来自卢氏县原荣农业有限公司，通过开展有机产品认证，让好产品有好'身份'，相当 于获取了高端市场通行证。"2月5日，卢氏县市场监管局局长符红林说。 作为"中国香菇之都""中国核桃之乡"和"天然药园"，卢氏县特色农产品资源富集。但长期以来，深山里 的优质土特产"养在深闺人未识"，即便品质出众，也因缺乏权威认证，卖不上价、走不远。 转机出现在2025年年初，省市场监管局在全省开展"有机产品认证提升服务强企强链强县"活动，为试点 企业免费提供质量认证提升。卢氏县敏锐抢抓机遇，成功入选有机产品认证提升重点县，8家特色农产 品企业跻身省级试点，占三门峡市试点总数的80%。 "活动的核心是通过政府购买服务引入专业认证技术机构，为有潜力、有特色的中小微企业精准帮扶， 实现有机生产管理水平与市场竞争力双重提升。"符红林介绍。 之后，来自南京国环有机产品认证中心的专家团队多次深入卢氏县，对8家试点企业开展了"沉浸式"诊 断。他们走进香 ...

Core Insights - In January 2026, China's Commodity Price Index (CBPI) reached 125.3 points, marking a month-on-month increase of 6.3% and a year-on-year increase of 12.7%, the highest since July 2022 [1] - The increase in the index is attributed to optimistic business expectations and ongoing production expansion, supported by new policies, while also facing challenges from international geopolitical changes and commodity price volatility [1] Industry Analysis - The non-ferrous price index surged to 159.6 points, with a month-on-month increase of 9.9% and a year-on-year increase of 26.6% [2] - The chemical price index rose to 99.3 points, showing a month-on-month increase of 3.8% but a year-on-year decrease of 9.8% [2] - The black metal price index increased to 79.2 points, with a month-on-month rise of 2.2% and a year-on-year decline of 1.6% [2] - The agricultural product price index slightly increased to 98.3 points, with a month-on-month rise of 0.2% and a year-on-year increase of 5.7% [2] - The mineral price index fell to 71.3 points, with a month-on-month decrease of 0.3% and a year-on-year decrease of 10.3% [2] - The energy price index declined to 94.6 points, with a month-on-month drop of 3.2% and a year-on-year decrease of 11.6% [2] Commodity Performance - Among 50 monitored commodities, 33 (66%) saw price increases, while 17 (34%) experienced price declines in January compared to December 2025 [2] - The top three commodities with the highest price increases were lithium carbonate (up 48.4%), refined tin (up 20.2%), and refined nickel (up 19.5%) [2] - The commodities with the largest price declines were corrugated paper (down 13.1%), caustic soda (down 7%), and coke (down 6.9%) [2] Geopolitical and Market Trends - Tensions in North America and the Middle East, along with a weakening US dollar, have contributed to rising international oil prices and record highs in copper prices [3] - Gold and silver prices reached historical highs in January, but significant declines were observed towards the end of the month due to margin adjustments and Federal Reserve announcements [3] - Future projections suggest that gold prices may experience both upward trends and volatility, with ongoing geopolitical risks providing long-term support despite short-term fluctuations [3]

Core Insights - The article highlights the increasing integration of the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region, particularly in the floral industry, showcasing how products from Tianjin are gaining popularity in Beijing as the Spring Festival approaches [1][3]. Group 1: Floral Industry Collaboration - The Beijing Flower Trading Center serves as a key hub for floral sales, with 100% of the "Baolian Lantern" flowers sold there sourced from Tianjin, indicating a strong production and sales linkage between the regions [3]. - The collaboration among the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei floral industry has evolved into a clear development pattern, with Tianjin focusing on production, Hebei on cultivation, and Beijing on distribution and sales [3]. - A digital platform has been established at the Beijing Flower Trading Center, enhancing transaction efficiency and reducing logistics costs, with over 700 merchants registered, 30% of which are from Tianjin [5]. Group 2: Market Dynamics and Consumer Preferences - The "Baolian Lantern" flowers, cultivated in Tianjin, are popular during the Spring Festival, with sales expected to reach three to four times the normal volume during this period [5]. - The trading center has become a modern floral complex, offering various services and experiences, including a flower auction center and a themed night market, enhancing its commercial and recreational appeal [7]. - The center will extend its operating hours during the Spring Festival to accommodate increased consumer demand, with various themed activities planned [8]. Group 3: Local Market Engagement - The article also discusses local vendors from Tianjin participating in the Yongle Market in Tongzhou, showcasing a variety of traditional foods and agricultural products, which are well-received by consumers [10][12]. - Vendors report strong sales, with some achieving daily revenues of up to 6,000 yuan, indicating a robust demand for local specialties [10][15]. - The Yongle Market has undergone renovations to enhance its appeal, attracting a significant number of visitors and facilitating the integration of products from the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region [20][22].

Core Viewpoint - The recent announcement of a "landmark trade agreement" between the US and India, which includes a significant reduction in tariffs and a shift in energy sourcing, is more complex than it appears, revealing underlying geopolitical strategies and challenges [1][3]. Group 1: Trade Agreement Details - The US plans to reduce tariffs on Indian goods from 50% to 18%, while India is expected to stop purchasing oil from Russia and instead import energy from the US [1]. - The agreement lacks specific implementation dates, detailed procurement lists, and a timeline for India's cessation of Russian oil purchases, indicating a lack of concrete commitments [3]. - There are discrepancies in the reported tariff reductions, with Trump claiming a drop from 50% to 18%, while India stated it would decrease from 25% to 18%, highlighting the differing narratives for domestic audiences [5]. Group 2: Geopolitical Implications - The agreement serves multiple purposes for the US: it strengthens its strategic position in Asia, disrupts India's energy ties with Russia, and opens up significant market opportunities for US companies in energy, agriculture, and high-tech sectors [3]. - For India, the choice to comply with the US demands is driven by the economic pressure of high tariffs, but abandoning cheaper Russian oil could lead to increased costs and financial strain [3][5]. - The agreement is viewed as a geopolitical maneuver rather than a straightforward economic partnership, with both nations seeking to leverage the situation for their own strategic advantages [5]. Group 3: Future Considerations - Key questions remain regarding India's ability to meet its energy needs without Russian oil, the US's commitment to lowering tariffs, and the potential repercussions for Russia as a significant energy supplier [7]. - The relationship between major powers is characterized by shifting interests rather than lasting alliances, suggesting that the apparent cooperation may be built on fragile foundations [7].

文 | 聂波 来源 | NB的农产品 编辑 | 杨兰 审核 | 浦电路交易员 往年USDA 2月报告会对南美大豆产量调整，尤其是最近阿根廷天气炒作，巴西大豆发运缓慢，CBOT美大豆从 底部反弹，那么本次报告中美国和南美大豆平衡表将有哪些变化？阿根廷干旱问题是否对国内豆粕市场产生较 大影响？ 短期南美炒作天气，长期南美丰产 01 本次美国农业部（USDA）2月供需报告将于当地2月10日下午12点公布，通常2月报告不会对美豆供应方面进 行调整，25/26年度美豆产量在今年的2-9月的供需报告中不再有变化，进口方面即使调整也将会很小，本次报 告的修正将集中在需求端的压榨和出口。 美国12月大豆压榨量预估为2.304亿蒲式耳，将比2024年11月的2.177亿蒲式耳增加5.9%，较11月份的2.205 亿蒲式耳增加4.5%，压榨量处于历史次新高的水平。由于生产生物燃料所需的豆油需求不断增加，美国大豆压 榨产能扩大，推动大豆压榨率飙升至历史高位。9-12月累计压榨8.924亿蒲式耳，同比增加7.29%，高于1月报 告中年度压榨目标增速5.11%，但是增速略低于9-11月的7.99%。在1月报告中，25/26年度美豆压榨 ...

Core Viewpoint - In January, China's Commodity Price Index (CBPI) reached 125.3 points, marking a month-on-month increase of 6.3% and a year-on-year increase of 12.7%, the highest since July 2022 [1] Group 1: Market Trends - The increase in the CBPI indicates a continued recovery and positive market sentiment, supported by national strategic policies and optimistic business expectations [1][2] - The rise in prices is influenced by international geopolitical changes, expectations of loose monetary policy, and significant fluctuations in commodity futures prices, leading to rapid increases in prices of non-ferrous metals and chemicals [1] Group 2: Sector Analysis - The non-ferrous price index saw a substantial increase, while the chemical price index also rose quickly; the black series price index continued to recover, and agricultural product prices increased slightly [1] - Among the 50 monitored commodities, 33 (66%) experienced price increases, while 17 (34%) saw price declines in January [1] - The top three commodities with the highest price increases were lithium carbonate, refined tin, and refined nickel; the top three with the largest declines were corrugated paper, caustic soda, and coke [1]