Group 1: Currency and Economic Outlook - Barclays reports that despite recent negative events, the US dollar has remained resilient, with no significant decline observed since May, even amid weak economic data and challenges to the Federal Reserve's credibility [1] - Goldman Sachs predicts that the US economy will recover in the coming months, which may support the dollar's continued strength [1] Group 2: Oil and Emerging Markets - Goldman Sachs states that a complete ban on Russian oil imports by the EU is unlikely due to reliance from certain member states like Hungary and Slovakia, and any potential ban would only redistribute oil flows rather than reduce global supply [2] - Goldman Sachs expects emerging market stocks and currencies to rise by the end of the year, raising the MSCI Emerging Markets Index target from 1,370 to 1,480 points, indicating a potential 10% upside [2] Group 3: Domestic Market Insights - Dongfang Jincheng forecasts stable and ample market liquidity by year-end, with potential for a new round of reserve requirement ratio cuts and government bond purchases [4] - CITIC Securities highlights the long video industry benefiting from favorable policies, which may enhance production capacity and efficiency for content creators [6][10] - CITIC Securities notes a recovery in the restaurant industry, with August seeing a year-on-year increase in dining revenue, suggesting structural opportunities for leading companies with strong compliance and quality [8] Group 4: Sector-Specific Developments - CITIC Securities indicates that the carbon fiber industry is in a recovery phase, with strong demand in wind energy and aerospace sectors, recommending attention to high-quality companies with international exposure [9] - China Galaxy Securities observes a slight increase in cement prices due to seasonal demand, with expectations for further price support from rising coal prices [11][12] - China Galaxy Securities also reports positive signals in panel procurement ahead of the overseas promotional season, indicating a potential peak in TV demand [13] Group 5: Electronic Materials - Huatai Securities emphasizes the importance of electronic cloth in the PCB-CCL supply chain, predicting a supply shortage for various specialty electronic cloth products until 2026, and recommends companies with rapid capacity expansion [14][15]

Group 1 - The core message of the news highlights the implications of the $20 billion currency swap negotiation initiated by the U.S. Treasury, which significantly impacted Argentina's 2035 dollar bonds, leading to a 4-cent increase in a single day, effectively reversing losses since the local elections [2][3] - The U.S. intervention aims to break Argentina's cycle of "depleting foreign reserves - currency depreciation - inflation rebound," with the central bank reportedly selling up to $678 million in reserves in a single day to maintain the agreed exchange rate with the IMF [2][3] - The $20 billion swap is designed to reshape market expectations regarding Argentina's debt repayment capabilities, alleviating depreciation pressure on the peso and stabilizing the market ahead of the midterm elections [3][4] Group 2 - Argentina's government faces a paradox of "reform commitments - electoral pressure - market trust," as austerity measures have reduced inflation from 289% to 34%, but GDP is projected to decline by 2.1% year-on-year in Q3 2024, with rising poverty rates [4][5] - The U.S. aid is seen as a temporary relief for the "pain of reform," with historical patterns indicating that economic stimulus before elections often yields short-term effects [4][5] - Investors are cautioned about the disconnection between short-term liquidity injections and long-term economic fundamentals, as Argentina has a history of debt defaults and high financing costs, which could exceed 10% even if it returns to international bond markets in 2026 [5][6] Group 3 - Argentina's case provides a clear risk pricing framework for emerging market investments, with its 2035 bonds yielding 420 basis points above the emerging market average, reflecting compensation for inflation, credit history, and political volatility [6][7] - Despite a reduction in the external debt-to-GDP ratio from 90% in 2020 to 65% in 2023, Argentina's primary fiscal surplus remains low at 1.2% of GDP, below the emerging market safety line [6][7] - Geopolitical factors add complexity to risk pricing, as U.S. relations with other Latin American countries elevate Argentina's strategic value, but potential shifts in policy following elections could jeopardize aid agreements [6][7] Group 4 - The situation in Argentina offers three key insights for investors in emerging markets: prioritizing liquidity over profitability, recognizing mismatches between political and investment cycles, and quantifying geopolitical premiums [7][8] - Investors should be aware that liquidity injections in countries with low foreign reserves can lead to capital controls, affecting profit repatriation [7][8] - The requirement for "market-oriented foreign exchange reforms" as a condition for U.S. aid could lead to significant depreciation of the peso, posing risks for investors holding local currency assets [7][8]

Group 1 - The Thai Baht has appreciated by 4.45% against the US dollar this year, while the Vietnamese Dong has depreciated by 8.47%, giving Vietnam a 12.92% competitive advantage in trade and tourism, putting pressure on Thailand [2] - Vietnam's economy is outperforming Thailand, with a GDP growth of 7.96% and an export growth of 18% in Q2 2025, compared to Thailand's GDP growth of 2.8% and export growth of 12.2% [2] - Despite higher growth and interest rates in Vietnam, the Vietnamese Dong has not strengthened due to the influx of speculative capital into Thailand [2][4] Group 2 - The influx of speculative capital is driven by short-term arbitrage opportunities, with potential annualized returns of up to 260% when leveraging the expected appreciation of the Thai Baht [4] - Thailand's foreign exchange reserves are robust, amounting to 52.4% of GDP, ranking fourth globally, which contributes to the Baht being viewed as a "safe haven currency" [6] - The Thai central bank has intervened in the foreign exchange market during periods of US dollar weakness, but the scale of intervention this year is not historically significant [8] Group 3 - Speculative funds have significantly entered the government bond market, reducing the 5-year government bond yield to 1.42%, alleviating financing pressure amid a budget deficit of 865 billion Baht for the fiscal year 2025 [9] - There are differing opinions on how Thailand should respond to the influx of hot money, with some suggesting a fixed exchange rate system while others advocate for allowing market-driven adjustments [8]

Core Insights - The interbank foreign exchange market in August experienced stable trading, with a slight year-on-year decline in average daily trading volume [1] - The offshore yuan exchange rate showed a significant appreciation towards the end of August, reflecting stronger market expectations [2] - The implied volatility in the options market indicated a rising short-term appreciation expectation for the yuan [4] Group 1: Trading Volume and Market Activity - In August, the average daily trading volume in the interbank foreign exchange market was $191.86 billion, a year-on-year decrease of 1.29% and a month-on-month decrease of 7.06% [1] - The average daily trading volume for the yuan was $136.03 billion, down 9.32% year-on-year and 7.65% month-on-month [1] - The foreign currency market and foreign currency interest rate market remained active, with a year-on-year growth rate exceeding 20% [1] Group 2: Exchange Rate Movements - The onshore yuan exchange rate fluctuated between 7.1650 and 7.1950 in early August, strengthening to a midpoint of 7.1030 by the end of the month, representing a 0.83% appreciation [1] - The average daily deviation of the market transaction price from the midpoint was 441 basis points, widening by 236 basis points compared to the previous month [1] - The offshore yuan (CNH) appreciated by 1.02% by the end of August, closing at 7.1276 [2] Group 3: Market Sentiment and Behavior - The average daily net selling of foreign exchange in August was $1.78 million, with a shift from net buying in the first half of the month to net selling in the second half [2] - The market's herd effect index was recorded at 63.52, slightly down from July but above the historical average of 62.65 [2][3] Group 4: Options Market and Interest Rate Differentials - The average daily trading volume in the yuan foreign exchange options market was $5.83 billion, a month-on-month decrease of 22.51% [4] - The implied volatility for at-the-money options rebounded, indicating a notable increase in market sentiment regarding short-term yuan appreciation [4] - The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield decreased to 4.23% by the end of August, contributing to a narrowing of the interest rate differential between China and the U.S. [4]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the contrasting strategies of China and Japan regarding U.S. Treasury bonds, highlighting China's proactive approach to reduce reliance on the dollar while Japan remains dependent on it due to economic constraints [1][2][3][4]. Group 1: China's Strategy - China is aggressively selling U.S. Treasury bonds and increasing its gold reserves, now holding nearly 2,400 tons, which is more than many developed countries [1][2]. - The country is moving towards using the yuan or mutually accepted currencies in international trade, reducing its dependence on the dollar and mitigating the risks associated with U.S. monetary policy [2][3]. - China's ability to develop its own technology, such as domestically produced 28nm chips, allows it to assert more control over its economic future and reduce reliance on U.S. technology [3][4]. Group 2: Japan's Dilemma - Japan holds approximately $1.15 trillion in U.S. Treasury bonds, which it uses to stabilize its currency and economy, despite being aware of the risks involved [2][3]. - The Japanese economy is heavily reliant on exports, and fluctuations in the yen's value necessitate the purchase of U.S. bonds to manage exchange rates, creating a cycle of dependency [2][3]. - Japan's security and technological reliance on the U.S. limits its options, forcing it to continue purchasing U.S. debt even when it may not be in its best interest [3][4]. Group 3: U.S. Position - The U.S. is facing a significant national debt, with projections indicating that the deficit could reach $1.9 trillion by 2025, raising concerns about its long-term fiscal sustainability [2][3]. - The U.S. leverages its position to pressure allies like Japan into purchasing more Treasury bonds, creating a cycle where Japan's economic health is tied to U.S. fiscal policy [3][4].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles indicates that gold prices are experiencing volatility due to Federal Reserve Chairman Powell's speech and geopolitical tensions, with a recent peak at $3791 per ounce [1][3] - Powell's recent comments highlight the challenges faced by the Federal Reserve, including rising inflation and a weak labor market, which have not significantly impacted the bullish trend in gold prices [3] - Geopolitical tensions, particularly NATO's warnings to Russia, are providing additional support for gold prices, alongside expectations of interest rate cuts and strong interest from ETF investors [3] Group 2 - The short-term outlook for gold suggests that if prices close below $3760 per ounce, it may pave the way for a decline towards $3750 and subsequently $3700 [4] - Conversely, if buyers push gold prices above $3775 per ounce, it could lead to testing the record high of $3791 per ounce, with the next target being $3800 [4]

Report Overview - Report Title: Global Asset Market Performance - Major Asset Morning Report - Report Date: September 24, 2025 - Research Team: Macro Team of the Research Center 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Report's Core View - The report presents the performance data of various global asset markets on September 23, 2025, including 10 - year and 2 - year government bond yields of major economies, exchange rates of the US dollar against major emerging - economy currencies, major economy stock indices, credit bond indices, stock index futures trading data, and government bond futures trading data. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Global Asset Market Performance - Bond Yields - **10 - Year Government Bond Yields**: On September 23, 2025, the 10 - year government bond yields of the US, UK, France, etc. were 4.107%, 4.679%, 3.563% respectively. The latest changes ranged from - 0.041 (US) to 0.004 (France), with weekly changes from - 0.030 (Switzerland) to 0.078 (US), monthly changes from - 0.155 (US) to 0.065 (France), and annual changes from - 0.220 (Switzerland) to 0.912 (UK) [2]. - **2 - Year Government Bond Yields**: On September 23, 2025, the 2 - year government bond yields of the US, UK, Germany, etc. were 3.570%, 3.950%, 2.019% respectively. The latest changes ranged from 0.000 (US, Japan) to 0.011 (South Korea), with weekly changes from - 0.014 (China 1Y) to 0.058 (Japan), monthly changes from - 0.012 (UK) to 0.084 (Germany), and annual changes from - 0.432 (South Korea) to 0.544 (Japan) [2]. 3.2 Global Asset Market Performance - Exchange Rates - **US Dollar against Major Emerging - Economy Currencies**: On September 23, 2025, the exchange rates of the US dollar against the Brazilian real, South African rand, etc. were 5.282, 17.245 respectively. The latest changes ranged from - 0.99% (Brazil) to 0.24% (South Korean won), with weekly changes from - 0.54% (South African rand) to 1.09% (South Korean won), monthly changes from - 2.75% (Brazil) to 0.05% (South Korean won), and annual changes from - 5.07% (Brazil) to 4.58% (South Korean won) [2]. - **Renminbi**: On September 23, 2025, the on - shore RMB, off - shore RMB, and the central parity rate were 7.113, 7.113, 7.106 respectively. The latest changes were - 0.02%, - 0.03%, - 0.07% respectively, with weekly changes of - 0.02%, 0.12%, 0.04% respectively, monthly changes of - 0.55%, - 0.56%, - 0.18% respectively, and annual changes of 0.23%, 0.18%, 0.04% respectively [2]. 3.3 Global Asset Market Performance - Stock Indices - **Major Economy Stock Indices**: On September 23, 2025, the S&P 500, Dow Jones Industrial Average, and NASDAQ were 6656.920, 46292.780, 22573.470 respectively. The latest changes ranged from - 0.95% (NASDAQ) to 0.59% (Mexican stock index), with weekly changes from - 0.03% (Spanish stock index) to 1.21% (German DAX), monthly changes from - 2.24% (German DAX) to 7.29% (Mexican stock index), and annual changes from 5.45% (French CAC) to 31.35% (Spanish stock index) [2]. 3.4 Global Asset Market Performance - Credit Bond Indices - **Credit Bond Indices**: The latest changes of the US investment - grade credit bond index, euro - zone investment - grade credit bond index, etc. ranged from - 0.03% (euro - zone investment - grade credit bond index) to 0.40% (emerging - economy high - yield credit bond index), with weekly changes from - 0.39% (US investment - grade credit bond index) to 0.27% (euro - zone high - yield credit bond index), monthly changes from 0.26% (euro - zone investment - grade credit bond index) to 1.61% (US investment - grade credit bond index), and annual changes from 3.66% (US investment - grade credit bond index) to 13.30% (emerging - economy high - yield credit bond index) [2][3]. 3.5 Stock Index Futures Trading Data - **Index Performance**: The closing prices of A - shares, CSI 300, SSE 50, etc. were 3821.83, 4519.78, 2919.51 respectively, with changes of - 0.18%, - 0.06%, - 0.09% respectively [4]. - **Valuation**: The PE (TTM) of the CSI 300, SSE 50, and CSI 500 were 14.01, 11.64, 34.17 respectively, with环比 changes of 0.04, 0.07, - 0.25 respectively [4]. - **Fund Flow**: The latest values of the fund flow of A - shares, the main board, and small - and medium - sized enterprise boards were - 1566.78, - 1050.60, etc., with 5 - day average values of - 1037.14, - 806.14, etc. respectively [4]. - **Trading Volume**: The latest trading volumes of the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets, CSI 300, and SSE 50 were 24943.82, 6805.14, 1689.87 respectively, with环比 changes of 3728.99, 1173.65, 125.86 respectively [4]. - **Main Contract Premium/Discount**: The basis of IF, IH, and IC were - 35.98, 5.49, - 240.11 respectively, with premiums/discounts of - 0.80%, 0.19%, - 3.34% respectively [4]. 3.6 Government Bond Futures Trading Data - **Government Bond Futures**: The closing prices of T00, TF00, T01, and TF01 were 107.715, 105.625, 107.385, 105.505 respectively, with changes of 0.13%, 0.09%, 0.12%, 0.09% respectively [5]. - **Funding Rates**: The funding rates of R001, R007, and SHIBOR - 3M were 1.4619%, 1.5218%, 1.5620% respectively, with daily changes of - 7.00 BP, - 1.00 BP, 0.00 BP respectively [5].

Group 1 - The core theme of the press conference was to highlight the achievements of the financial sector during the "14th Five-Year Plan" period, emphasizing long-term perspectives rather than short-term policy adjustments [1] - As of June 2023, China's banking sector total assets reached nearly 470 trillion yuan, ranking first globally, while the stock and bond markets ranked second in the world [1] - China has maintained its position as the world's largest holder of foreign exchange reserves for 20 consecutive years, and has made significant advancements in green finance, inclusive finance, and digital finance [1][2] Group 2 - The modern monetary policy framework in China is gradually taking shape, with effective policy transmission supporting the real economy [2] - The average annual growth rate of loans to technology-based SMEs, inclusive micro-enterprises, and green loans exceeded 20% during the "14th Five-Year Plan" period [2] - The People's Bank of China has implemented a series of monetary policies since September 2024 to stabilize market expectations and boost confidence, contributing to economic recovery and high-quality development [2] Group 3 - Significant progress has been made in preventing and mitigating financial risks, with a focus on orderly handling of prominent risk points in the financial sector [3] - The financial system in China is overall stable, with financial institutions remaining healthy and the market operating smoothly [3] - The "14th Five-Year Plan" period saw five key advancements in financial sector openness, including deepening institutional openness and enhancing the international status of the renminbi [3] Group 4 - By the end of July 2023, foreign institutions and individuals held over 10 trillion yuan in domestic stocks, bonds, and deposits, with stock holdings exceeding 3 trillion yuan and bond holdings around 4 trillion yuan [4] Group 5 - The People's Bank of China is focused on improving the central bank system and enhancing financial security under open conditions, aiming to support high-quality economic development [5] - The central bank is working on a dual-pillar framework for monetary policy and macro-prudential policy to achieve currency stability and financial stability [5][6] Group 6 - The financial market infrastructure is being strengthened, with the introduction of a "technology board" in the bond market and a multi-layered bond market framework being established [6] - The central bank is committed to deepening high-level financial openness and promoting the internationalization of the renminbi [6] Group 7 - The balance between short-term and long-term goals, as well as the health of the financial system and support for the real economy, is crucial for maintaining financial stability [7] - The importance of market discipline and the need for a robust risk management framework are emphasized to prevent moral hazards [8] Group 8 - The regulatory authority has prioritized the prevention and resolution of financial risks, with significant achievements in managing risks associated with small and medium-sized financial institutions [9] - The number of high-risk institutions and the scale of high-risk assets have significantly decreased, indicating that financial risks are controllable [9]

Report Information - Report Date: September 23, 2025 [2] - Report Type: Global Asset Market Performance and Futures Trading Data Report Global Asset Market Performance 10 - Year Treasury Yields of Major Economies - On September 22, 2025, the 10 - year Treasury yields of the US, UK, France, etc. were 4.148, 4.712, 3.559 respectively. The latest changes were 0.020, - 0.002, 0.006; weekly changes were 0.109, 0.080, 0.081; monthly changes were - 0.128, 0.021, 0.050; and annual changes were 0.473, 0.931, 0.710 [3]. 2 - Year Treasury Yields of Major Economies - On September 22, 2025, the 2 - year Treasury yields of the US, UK, Germany, etc. were 3.570, 3.976, 2.014 respectively. The latest changes were 0.050, 0.000, - 0.005; weekly changes were 0.050, 0.028, - 0.002; monthly changes were - 0.020, 0.038, 0.045; and annual changes were - 0.020, 0.161, - 0.206 [3]. US Dollar Exchange Rates Against Major Emerging - Market Currencies - On September 22, 2025, the US dollar exchange rates against the Brazilian real, South African rand, South Korean won, etc. were 5.335, 17.326, 1391.250 respectively. The latest changes were 0.21%, - 0.10%, - 0.43%; weekly changes were 0.35%, - 0.19%, 0.36%; monthly changes were - 1.41%, - 1.60%, 0.05%; and annual changes were - 5.16%, - 2.67%, 3.67% [3]. Stock Indices of Major Economies - On September 22, 2025, the S&P 500, Dow Jones Industrial Average, NASDAQ, etc. were 6693.750, 46381.540, 22788.980 respectively. The latest changes were 0.44%, 0.14%, 0.70%; weekly changes were 1.19%, 1.09%, 1.97%; monthly changes were 3.95%, 2.43%, 6.25%; and annual changes were 19.62%, 12.86%, 29.71% [3]. Credit Bond Indices - The latest changes of the US investment - grade credit bond index, euro - area investment - grade credit bond index, etc. were - 0.16%, 0.06%, etc.; weekly changes were - 0.53%, - 0.03%, etc.; monthly changes were 1.47%, 0.43%, etc.; and annual changes were 3.74%, 4.30%, etc. [3][4] Futures Trading Data Stock Index Futures Trading Data - The closing prices of A - shares, CSI 300, SSE 50, etc. were 3828.58, 4522.61, 2922.18 respectively, with percentage changes of 0.22%, 0.46%, 0.43%. The PE (TTM) of CSI 300, SSE 50, etc. were 13.97, 11.57, etc., with环比 changes of 0.01, - 0.01, etc. The latest values of capital flows in A - shares, the main board, etc. were - 336.93, - 447.76, etc. The latest trading volumes of the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets, CSI 300, etc. were 21214.83, 5631.49, etc., with环比 changes of - 2023.46, - 407.38, etc. The basis of IF, IH, IC were - 38.61, 0.82, - 211.93, with amplitudes of - 0.85%, 0.03%, - 2.93% [5]. Treasury Bond Futures Trading Data - The closing prices of T00, TF00, T01, TF01 were 107.975, 105.770, 107.620, 105.640 respectively, with percentage changes of 0.00%, 0.00%, 0.00%, 0.00%. The R001, R007, SHIBOR - 3M were 1.4749%, 1.5262%, 1.5620% respectively, with daily changes of - 5.00, 1.00, 0.00 BP [6]

Core Viewpoint - The conference on "High-Quality Completion of the 14th Five-Year Plan" highlighted significant achievements in China's financial sector, including deepened financial reforms, stable capital market development, and steady progress in high-level foreign exchange openness [1]. Financial Sector Achievements - Comprehensive deepening of financial system reforms has been achieved, marking solid steps towards building a financial powerhouse [1]. - The capital market has shown a healthy and stable development trend, which continues to strengthen [1]. Risk Prevention and Management - Important progress has been made in preventing and resolving financial risks, with tailored reform plans for key regions [3]. - Over 3,600 illegal shareholders have been cleared, and unlawful financial groups have been dealt with according to the law [3]. Support for the Real Economy - Financial support for the real economy has been increased, with over 1.6 trillion yuan allocated for key projects such as affordable housing [3]. - By the end of June, the number of financing platforms decreased by over 60%, and financial debt scale dropped by over 5% compared to the beginning of 2023 [6]. Capital Market Developments - By the end of August, various long-term funds held approximately 21.4 trillion yuan in A-share circulation, a 32% increase from the end of the 13th Five-Year Plan [9]. - The introduction of measures such as the "Science and Technology Innovation Board" and strict regulations to eliminate underperforming companies has been implemented [9]. Foreign Exchange Market Progress - In 2024, China's cross-border receipts and payments are projected to reach 14 trillion USD, a 64% increase from 2020 [11]. - The participation of 703 banks and 115 non-bank institutions in the interbank foreign exchange market has been noted, including 296 foreign institutions [11]. Regulatory Enhancements - A total of 171 regulatory measures have been issued over the past five years, with enhanced supervision of 41 key institutions [21]. - The establishment of consumer protection platforms has been initiated to facilitate financial services [22]. Infrastructure and Technology Financing - The balance of infrastructure loans reached 54.5 trillion yuan, a 62% increase compared to the 13th Five-Year Plan [15]. - Loans to high-tech enterprises have reached nearly 19 trillion yuan, with an annual growth rate exceeding 20% [15].