在金融市场上，对美国特朗普政府政策操作的过度警惕感逐渐缓解。上周，美国股票、债券和货 币齐齐遭到抛售的"三杀"局面告一段落。但观察市场数据可以看到，市场参与者仍然没有放松紧 张情绪，认为抛售美国可能复燃。本周（4月28日开始的一周）将公布美国就业指标的结果，根 据内容，市场的平静可能会被打破。 上周的外汇市场上，4月以来持续的美元贬值趋势得到了遏制。代表美元对主要货币综合实力 的"美元指数"4月21日从约三年来的底部——97区间，恢复到了99区间。 在交易货币买卖权利的货币期权市场上，应对日元升值和美元贬值的趋势正在缓解。反映各货币 对美元买权需求和卖权需求哪个更大的"风险逆转(Risk Reversal,1个月指标)"在4月25日为-1.5% 以下。自4月3日以来，负值最小。负值越大，表明日元买权需求越大，日元升值警惕感越强。4 月11日，负值一度达到-3.5%以下，这是自2024年8月金融市场混乱以来的最大负值。 金融市场对特朗普的 猜疑没有消失（Reuters） 美国股票、债券和货币齐齐遭到抛售的"三杀"局面告一段落。但观察市场数据可以看到，市场参 与者仍然没有放松紧张情绪。美国经济是导致美国股债汇"三 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings There is no information provided regarding the overall industry investment ratings in the given report. 2. Core Views of the Report - The US economy faces downward pressure as indicated by the significant decline in the Texas manufacturing index, leading to a weaker and volatile US dollar index [1][12]. - From late April to mid - May, treasury bond futures are expected to perform better than in the second half of April, and the strategy of buying on dips has increased cost - effectiveness [2][19]. - Steel prices are likely to continue to fluctuate in the short term, with the market being rational and cautious about administrative production cuts [3][22]. - For zinc, the medium - term supply - demand situation remains loose, and the logic of shorting on rallies is maintained, while attention should be paid to controlling positions due to potential impacts on the domestic manufacturing PMI from tariffs [4][45]. - Oil prices are fluctuating downward as the market awaits further clarification of OPEC+ policies [5][50]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Financial News and Comments 3.1.1 Macro Strategy (Foreign Exchange Futures - US Dollar Index) - The Texas manufacturing index dropped to its lowest level since May 2020, indicating continued downward pressure on the US economy and a bearish outlook for the US dollar index in the short term [12][13]. 3.1.2 Macro Strategy (US Stock Index Futures) - The US Treasury has raised its borrowing estimates for the second and third quarters. Although the market has temporarily set aside concerns about long - term debt sustainability, the sustainability of the risk - preference repair needs further observation due to the emerging impact of tariffs [14][17]. 3.1.3 Macro Strategy (Treasury Bond Futures) - The central bank's deputy governor mentioned the potential for timely reserve requirement ratio cuts and interest rate cuts. The market's core contradiction lies between the un - falsifiable expectation of loose monetary policy and the uncertainty of the implementation time of such policies. It is recommended to focus on the strategy of buying long - term treasury bond futures on dips [18][20]. 3.2 Commodity News and Comments 3.2.1 Black Metal (Rebar/Hot - Rolled Coil) - Shanghai's major projects are accelerating. Steel prices are in a volatile pattern. The market is waiting for details of administrative production - control policies. It is recommended to view steel prices with a short - term oscillatory perspective and maintain a hedging mindset on rallies [21][23]. 3.2.2 Black Metal (Coking Coal/Coke) - In the East China market, coking coal prices are expected to oscillate weakly in the short term. Although there is some support for prices in the short term due to reduced supply and pre - holiday restocking demand, the medium - to long - term trend remains bearish [24][25]. 3.2.3 Non - ferrous Metal (Polysilicon) - After the price decline, attention should be paid to the resumption of production in Southwest China during the wet season and the silicon wafer production schedule from May to June. Different trading strategies are recommended for different contracts [28]. 3.2.4 Non - ferrous Metal (Industrial Silicon) - The operating rate of organic silicon monomers is expected to decline. The supply side may see marginal changes due to price drops. It is recommended to partially take profits on previous short positions and wait for clear signals before considering bottom - fishing [29]. 3.2.5 Non - ferrous Metal (Lithium Carbonate) - Some salt factories plan to reduce production, but the demand is not expected to exceed expectations. It is recommended to adopt a bearish strategy in the second quarter [30][31]. 3.2.6 Non - ferrous Metal (Copper) - Macro factors have a relatively neutral short - term impact on copper prices, while the short - term fundamentals are strong, supporting copper prices and the premium. It is recommended to take a bullish approach and pay attention to the Shanghai copper inter - period positive spread strategy [34][35]. 3.2.7 Non - ferrous Metal (Nickel) - It is recommended to wait for dips to buy nickel, pay attention to position management, and hedge beta risks due to potential macro - sentiment fluctuations [38][39]. 3.2.8 Non - ferrous Metal (Lead) - The short - term bearish logic for lead is dominant. It is recommended to focus on shorting opportunities on rallies and take profit on the internal - external reverse spread [40][41]. 3.2.9 Non - ferrous Metal (Zinc) - In the short term, zinc prices are supported, but the medium - term supply - demand situation remains loose. It is recommended to look for short - selling opportunities on rallies near the moving average and maintain a long - term internal - external positive spread strategy [42][45]. 3.2.10 Energy and Chemical (Liquefied Petroleum Gas) - LPG prices are expected to oscillate weakly due to the impact of tariff policies and cost - profit squeezes [46][49]. 3.2.11 Energy and Chemical (Crude Oil) - Oil prices are expected to remain volatile in the short term as the market awaits OPEC+ policies [50][51]. 3.2.12 Energy and Chemical (Asphalt) - The fundamentals of asphalt are improving, but the impact on prices is limited due to relatively high inventory levels. It is recommended to wait and see [52][53]. 3.2.13 Energy and Chemical (PTA) - PTA prices are expected to be oscillatory and slightly bullish in the short term, but the rebound height will be restricted by the demand side in the long term [55][57]. 3.2.14 Energy and Chemical (Caustic Soda) - After a short - term rebound, caustic soda prices weakened again, but the room for further decline is relatively limited [58][59]. 3.2.15 Energy and Chemical (Pulp) - Pulp is expected to be in a weakly oscillatory pattern in the short term due to the large internal - external price gap and lack of significant positive news [60][61]. 3.2.16 Energy and Chemical (PVC) - PVC is expected to be weakly oscillatory in the short term as the short - term macro - impact has subsided [62]. 3.2.17 Energy and Chemical (Styrene) - Styrene prices are oscillating weakly recently. The supply - demand structure is expected to be negatively affected by reduced supply - side disturbances and weakening downstream demand [63][65]. 3.2.18 Energy and Chemical (Bottle Chips) - The bottle chip industry shows a situation of both increasing supply and demand. Although there is no significant short - term contradiction, the supply pressure is increasing, and processing margins are under pressure [65][66]. 3.2.19 Energy and Chemical (Soda Ash) - In the medium term, a bearish view on soda ash is maintained, while short - term attention should be paid to the impact of summer maintenance on the 09 contract [67]. 3.2.20 Energy and Chemical (Float Glass) - Glass futures prices are expected to remain in a low - level range due to weak reality and lack of positive policies, and attention should be paid to real - estate policy changes [69][70].

Core Viewpoint - The US dollar index experienced a decline due to market concerns over high tariffs impacting the US economy, with a notable drop in the index by 0.46% to 99.012 [2]. Group 1: Economic Indicators - The Dallas Federal Reserve reported a manufacturing index of -35.8 for April, significantly lower than March's -16.3, contributing to the dollar's decline [2]. - Key macroeconomic data, including Q1 GDP and April non-farm payrolls, are set to be released this week, which may provide further insights into the economic situation [3]. Group 2: Currency Exchange Rates - As of the end of the New York trading session, the euro was valued at 1.1413 USD, up from 1.1380 USD the previous day, while the British pound rose to 1.3426 USD from 1.3329 USD [3]. - The US dollar weakened against the Japanese yen, Swiss franc, Canadian dollar, and Swedish krona, with notable declines in exchange rates compared to the previous trading day [3]. Group 3: Market Sentiment - Analysts suggest that the foreign exchange market is currently in a consolidation phase, with expectations of upcoming significant economic data [2]. - The market is awaiting clearer indicators of economic deterioration before the Federal Reserve considers interest rate cuts, emphasizing the need for substantial evidence rather than mere predictions [3].

Core Viewpoint - The report highlights the imminent crisis of U.S. sovereign credit and debt, suggesting that the U.S. debt situation resembles a Ponzi scheme on the verge of collapse, with significant implications for global economic stability and trade [1][3][4]. Group 1: Current U.S. Debt Situation - The U.S. national debt has reached $36.2 trillion, accounting for 123% of GDP, significantly exceeding the internationally recognized warning line of 60% [3][4]. - The report predicts that by 2025, the U.S. may face a debt crisis, with approximately $9.3 trillion of public debt maturing, representing one-third of total debt [3][4]. - Interest payments on U.S. debt are projected to exceed military spending for the first time in fiscal year 2024, with interest expenses expected to grow by 8% to $952 billion in 2025 [3][4]. Group 2: Economic Impact of Policies - Trump's policies, including "reciprocal tariffs" and extreme fiscal tightening, have led to a significant rise in one-year inflation expectations to 4.3%, the highest level in nearly two years, and a drop in consumer confidence to 67.8, down 11.8% year-on-year [1][3]. - The combination of tariffs and tax cuts is expected to exacerbate social inequality, with the lowest 20% of earners facing an average annual loss of $1,125, while the top 1% could gain an average of $43,500 annually [1][3]. Group 3: Global Financial System and Dollar Dependency - There is a growing trend of "de-dollarization," with global central banks reducing their holdings of U.S. debt, leading to a decline in the dollar's share of global official foreign exchange reserves to 57.4%, the lowest in 30 years [5][6]. - The report indicates that the collapse of U.S. debt is not the end of the international financial system but rather the beginning of a long process of restructuring the global credit system, with emerging economies and a multipolar currency system reshaping the order [6][7]. Group 4: Recommendations for China - The report suggests that China should proactively lead global cooperation to mitigate the risks associated with U.S. debt, including establishing a monitoring mechanism for U.S. debt defaults and enhancing financial infrastructure [6][7]. - It emphasizes the need for China to diversify its foreign reserves, increase holdings in gold and emerging market assets, and enhance domestic consumption to counteract global demand shrinkage [6][7].

人民币汇率弹性增强 今年以来，我国外汇市场运行总体平稳。人民币汇率双向浮动，保持相对稳定。4月份以来，美方单边 主义、保护主义行径引发国际金融市场剧烈波动，人民币对美元汇率先贬后升，与4月3日美宣布对贸易 伙伴加征所谓"对等关税"前的水平大体相当。 今年以来，外部环境发生深刻变化，国际金融市场波动加大。我国有力有效应对外部挑战，经济保持回 升向好，外汇市场运行总体平稳。国家外汇管理局数据显示，今年一季度，我国外汇市场交易理性有 序，跨境资金呈现净流入。 跨境资金净流入 一季度，企业、个人等非银行部门跨境资金净流入517亿美元，处于历史同期较高水平。 "主要渠道跨境资金流动平稳有序。"国家外汇管理局副局长、新闻发言人李斌介绍，货物贸易资金净流 入较快增加。一季度，我国外贸克服外部压力呈现较强韧性，货物贸易项下跨境资金净流入2063亿美 元，同比增长1.2倍。外资配置人民币债券增多。2月份至3月份外资净增持境内债券269亿美元，同比增 长84%。服务贸易、外资企业利润汇出总体平稳。一季度，服务贸易跨境资金净流出同比增长25%，其 中旅行项下资金净流出增长12%。 近一段时间，境外机构普遍看好我国债券市场，增持债券 ...

IMF首席经济学家Gourinchas：国际货币基金组织未观察到外汇市场存在压力的迹象。 ...

TMGM外汇发现周一美盘开启前，金融市场便被黄金的涨势震撼 —— 金价一举突破 3420 美元大关，刷新 历史纪录。今年以来，黄金价格累计涨幅已超 30%，这场前所未有的涨势背后，是特朗普对美联储独立性 的持续威胁，以及其关税政策引发的连锁反应，二者共同动摇了投资者对美国经济的信心根基。 对于投资选择，布里顿表示，虽然他看好人工智能板块的长期潜力，但并不认为当前黄金与股市的走势能 真实反映经济状况。不过，他也承认，这种背离预示着消费者信心的逐步瓦解，可能对未来经济产生深远 影响。阿邦多财富公司的财务规划师杰里米・祖克则更为直接，他认为从长期财富创造角度看，股票投资 仍是最佳选择，黄金虽有一定配置价值，但并非投资组合的必需品。 Amplify 投资研究主管罗恩・皮奇尼尼则对黄金持乐观态度。他指出，在市场不确定性加剧的背景下，黄 金作为少数真正有效的多元化投资工具，能够显著提升投资组合的风险调整后收益。更值得警惕的是，黄 金价格的上涨或许正在释放经济预警信号 —— 美国政府财政可持续性面临挑战，高利率下债务偿付成本 攀升，若最终以印钞偿债，可能引发美元与美债的信任危机，而黄金正是对冲这种极端风险的理想工具。 Fa ...

一觉醒来，全球金融圈炸锅了！4 月 21 日亚洲交易时段，那个曾经稳坐世界货币头把交椅的美元，突然像断了线的风筝，疯狂坠落。美元指数跌破 99 大 关，创下自 2022 年 4 月以来的最低记录，日内跌幅超 1%，4 月累计跌近 6%，今年以来更是暴跌超 9%！这哪是 "跌麻了"，简直是上演了一场惊心动魄的 货币版 "速度与激情"。消息一出，全球投资者心跳加速，普通老百姓也开始慌了神：这美元暴跌，到底和咱的钱包有啥关系？今天，咱们就来扒一扒这场 金融大戏背后的门道。 一、美元 "自由落体"：这场暴跌有多疯狂？ 还记得去年，美元还是全球投资者眼中的 "香饽饽"，凭借着美联储的加息政策和美国强大的经济实力，在国际货币市场上呼风唤雨。可谁能想到，短短几 个月时间，形势就发生了 180 度大转弯。就拿最近来说，美元指数的 K 线图简直像坐过山车一样，一路向下俯冲。在外汇市场上，欧元、日元等货币纷纷 "揭竿而起"，对美元发起了猛烈反攻。欧元兑美元汇率大幅上涨，日元也不甘示弱，让持有美元的投资者们欲哭无泪。 再看看大宗商品市场，黄金价格一路狂飙，突破了一个又一个重要关口。这背后，正是大量资金因为对美元失去信心，纷纷逃离美 ...

金十数据整理：每日全球外汇市场要闻速递（4月14日） 美元： 欧元： 1. 阿根廷放弃爬行盯住汇率机制，允许比索在区间内浮动。 2. 新加坡金管局下调新元汇率区间的斜率，维持宽度和中点不变。 1. 英国政府表示，英国将暂停对89种产品征收全球关税，每年为英国上下的企业节省至少1700万英镑。 日元： 1. 美国商务部长卢特尼克：对美元并不担忧。 2. 美联储卡什卡利：经济衰退的风险取决于贸易协议的进展。 3. 美媒：美国政府效率部的实际节省效果可能不到其声称的15%。 1. 日本首相警告称，美国关税有可能扰乱全球经济秩序。政府目前不考虑追加预算，但随时准备及时采 取行动，缓解美国关税对经济的打击。目前没有考虑对美征收报复性关税。 1. 欧盟考虑设立国防基金以缓解国防债务问题。 2. 德国候任总理默茨表示，特朗普的关税政策增加了金融危机的风险，并主张达成美欧自由贸易协定。 英镑： 2. 日本央行行长植田和男：日本央行将从可持续实现2%通胀目标的角度出发，适当引导货币政策，同 时不带预判地评估经济、物价和金融形势。 3. 日本自民党政务调查会长小野寺五典：作为美国盟友，日本不应考虑在双边贸易谈判中将其美国国债 持 ...

作 者丨林秋彤 编 辑丨肖嘉 图 源丨摄图网 近期，受美国"对等关税"政策影响，全球金融市场震荡，不确定性显著增强。 2 1世纪经济报道记者注意到，在岸和离岸人民币对美元汇率先是短线走低，释放贬值压力后 转而回调，目前均收复7 . 3元关口。截至记者发稿，在岸人民币对美元报7 . 2 9 2 6元，离岸人民 币对美元报7 . 2 8 1 3元。 与 此 同 时 ， 美 元 指 数 持 续 承 压 。 Wi n d 数 据 显 示 ， 4 月 11 日 美 元 指 数 已 跌 破 1 0 0 ， 日 内 跌 幅 达 1 . 1 4％，最新报9 9 . 7 9 0 6。而此前自2 0 2 4年11月6日起，美元指数保持在1 0 5以上的高位已持 续了近半年。 | < w | 美元指数 ರ | | --- | --- | | USDX.FX | | | 99.7690 前收 | | | -1.1682 -1.16% 卖出 | 99.7690 买入 99.7690 | | 最高 今年来 | -8.03% 20 日 -3.82% | | 最低 99.0086 | 10 日 | | 时间 23:54 涨跌 | -1.05 ...