Group 1: Report Overview - The report is a daily report on the polyolefin industry dated June 25, 2025 [1] Group 2: Research Team - The energy and chemical research team includes Peng Jinglin (polyolefins), Li Jie (crude oil and fuel oil), Ren Junchi (PTA, MEG), Peng Haozhou (urea, industrial silicon), Liu Youran (pulp), and Feng Zeren (glass and soda ash) [2] Group 3: Futures Market Quotes - In the futures market, plastics and PP contracts generally declined. For example, plastic 2601 closed at 7199 yuan/ton, down 158 yuan (-2.15%); plastic 2605 closed at 7182 yuan/ton, down 166 yuan (-2.26%); plastic 2509 closed at 7250 yuan/ton, down 172 yuan (-2.32%); PP2601 closed at 7027 yuan/ton, down 166 yuan (-2.31%); PP2605 closed at 7006 yuan/ton, down 179 yuan (-2.49%); PP2509 closed at 7074 yuan/ton, down 163 yuan (-2.25%) [3] Group 4: Market Review and Outlook - The main plastic contract L2509 opened low, fluctuated downward during the session, and closed down at 7250 yuan/ton, down 172 yuan (-2.32%), with a trading volume of 595,000 lots and a decrease in open interest by 3309 to 474,026 lots. The main PP contract closed at 7074 yuan/ton, down 163 yuan (-2.25%), with a decrease in open interest by 40,075 lots to 448,435 lots. The weak futures market dampened market trading sentiment. On the supply side, there were few new maintenance plans, and the loss of production due to plant maintenance decreased. The 500,000 - ton/year fourth - line of Zhenhai Refining & Chemical's PP project was planned to be put into operation on June 19, and domestic supply showed an increasing trend. The downstream industry has entered the traditional off - season, with significantly insufficient new orders. Affected by high - temperature and rainy weather, the construction progress of terminal projects slowed down. With high raw material prices and weak downstream industry profits, the enthusiasm for raw material procurement was difficult to significantly improve. The basis of plastic and PP slightly rebounded but remained low. The easing of the Middle East conflict led to a decline in crude oil premiums, and polyolefins prices fell from high levels. Attention should be paid to changes in cost - side drivers [4] Group 5: Industry News - On June 24, 2025, the inventory level of major producers was 780,000 tons, a decrease of 30,000 tons (-3.70%) from the previous working day, compared with 745,000 tons in the same period last year. PE market prices partially declined. In North China, some linear PE prices fell by 20 - 150 yuan/ton, some high - pressure PE prices fell by 50 - 200 yuan/ton, and some low - pressure PE prices fell by 20 - 100 yuan/ton. In East China, some high - pressure PE prices fell by 50 - 200 yuan/ton, some low - pressure PE prices fell by 20 - 100 yuan/ton, and some linear PE prices fell by 20 - 150 yuan/ton. In South China, some linear and low - pressure PE prices fell by 20 - 100 yuan/ton, and some high - pressure PE prices fell by 50 - 200 yuan/ton. The price of LLDPE in North China was 7300 - 7550 yuan/ton, in East China was 7400 - 7800 yuan/ton, and in South China was 7450 - 7750 yuan/ton. PP market prices decreased by 30 - 100 yuan/ton. The volatile decline of futures prices suppressed the trading atmosphere in the market. Most traders' quotes declined, with some resources dropping significantly by 80 - 100 yuan/ton. Downstream orders were poor, and after some previous purchases, most downstream enterprises maintained a cautious wait - and - see attitude, and overall trading was relatively poor. The mainstream price of North China drawn PP in the morning was 7080 - 7230 yuan/ton, in East China was 7130 - 7280 yuan/ton, and in South China was 7160 - 7300 yuan/ton [5]

光大期货能化商品日报 光大期货能化商品日报（2025 年 6 月 24 日） 一、研究观点 | 品种 | 点评 | 观点 | | --- | --- | --- | | | 伊以冲突可能走向停火，油价应声暴跌，其中 WTI 8 月合约收盘 | | | | 下跌 5.33 美元至 68.51 美元/桶，跌幅 7.22%。布伦特 8 月合约收 | | | | 盘下跌 5.53 美元至 71.48 美元/桶，跌幅 7.18%。SC2508 以 537.7 | | | | 元/桶收盘，下跌 32.2 元/桶，跌幅为 5.65%。伊朗最高国家安全委 | | | | 员会秘书处 23 日发表声明说，为回应美国对伊朗核设施的侵略行 | | | | 径，伊朗当天对美国驻卡塔尔的乌代德空军基地进行了导弹打击。 | | | | 特朗普在美国东部时间当天 18 时 02 分，北京时间 24 日 6 时 02 | | | | 分，发表的帖文中说，停火将在大约 6 小时后正式生效，届时以 | | | 原油 | 伊双方将完成各自正在进行的"最后任务"。根据协议，停火将分 | 震荡 | | | 阶段实施：伊朗先开始停火，到第 12 个小时 ...

聚酯产业链日报 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可 【2011】1292号 张晓珍 Z0003135 | 下游聚酯产品价格及现金流 | 上游价格 | 品种 | 6月20日 | 张跌 | 单位 | 品种 | 6月20日 | 6月23日 | 6月23日 | 胀跌 | 单位 | 张跌幅 | 旅跌幅 | | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | -7.2% | 77.01 | -5.53 | POY150/48价格 | 60 | 布伦特原油(8月) | 71.48 | 7225 | 7165 | 0.8% | 美元/桶 | -7.2% | 50 | WTI原油(8月) | 68.51 | 73.84 | -5.33 | FDY150/96价格 | 7515 | 0.7% | 7465 | | | 40 | CFR日本石脑油 | 646 | -4 | -0.6% | D ...

行业 聚烯烃日报 日期 2025 年 6 月 24 日 021-60635740 pengjinglin@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3075681 021-60635738 lijie@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3031215 021-60635737 renjunchi@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3037892 028-86630631 penghaozhou@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3065843 021-60635570 liuyouran@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F03094925 研究员：李金（甲醇） 021-60635730 lijin@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3015157 021-60635727 fengzeren@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F03134307 能源化工研究团队 研究员：彭婧霖（聚烯烃） 研究员：李捷,CFA（原油燃料油） 研究员：任俊弛（PTA、MEG） 研究员：彭 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The energy and chemical industry is divided into multiple sectors including energy, alcohols, polyolefins, rubber, polyesters, alkalis, etc [3]. - For each selected option variety, based on fundamental and market analysis, combined with option factor research, corresponding directional and volatility strategies as well as spot hedging strategies are proposed [8][9][10] 3. Summary According to Related Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market Overview - The latest prices, price changes, trading volumes, and open interest changes of various energy and chemical futures contracts are presented, such as the SC2508 crude oil contract with a latest price of 568, a decline of 4, and a trading volume of 455,500 lots [4]. 3.2 Option Factors 3.2.1 Volume and Open Interest PCR - The volume and open interest PCR of various option varieties are provided, which are used to describe the strength of the option underlying market and the turning point of the market trend respectively. For example, the open interest PCR of crude oil options is 1.90, indicating relatively strong long - term bullish sentiment [5]. 3.2.2 Pressure and Support Levels - The pressure and support levels of various option underlying assets are given. For instance, the pressure level of crude oil is 610 and the support level is 450 [6]. 3.2.3 Implied Volatility - The implied volatility data of various option varieties are presented, including at - the - money implied volatility, weighted implied volatility, etc. For example, the at - the - money implied volatility of crude oil options is 51.77% [7]. 3.3 Strategy and Recommendations 3.3.1 Energy - related Options - **Crude Oil**: Fundamentally, OPEC+ is increasing production, and the US supply is also rebounding. The market trend is short - term bullish. Option strategies include constructing a bullish call spread, a short call + put option combination, and a long collar strategy for spot hedging [8]. - **Liquefied Petroleum Gas (LPG)**: Affected by the Middle East geopolitical conflict, the supply may decrease. The market shows a short - term bullish trend. Strategies are similar to those of crude oil [10]. 3.3.2 Alcohol - related Options - **Methanol**: With decreasing port and enterprise inventories, the market is short - term bullish. Strategies include constructing a bullish call spread, a short call + put option combination, and a long collar strategy for spot hedging [10]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: Port inventory is decreasing, and the market shows a short - term bullish trend. Strategies include constructing a bullish call spread, a short volatility strategy, and a long collar strategy for spot hedging [11]. 3.3.3 Polyolefin - related Options - **Polypropylene**: In the seasonal off - peak season, downstream demand is weak, but the market shows signs of a rebound. Strategies include constructing a bullish call spread and a long collar strategy for spot hedging [11]. 3.3.4 Rubber - related Options - **Rubber**: Inventory is slightly increasing, and the market is in a weak consolidation state. A short neutral call + put option combination strategy is recommended [12]. 3.3.5 Polyester - related Options - **PTA**: The industry inventory is decreasing, and the market is in a high - level consolidation and rebound state. A short neutral call + put option combination strategy is recommended [13]. 3.3.6 Alkali - related Options - **Caustic Soda**: Inventory is decreasing, but the future supply - demand pattern is weakening. Strategies include constructing a bearish put spread, a short bearish strangle option combination, and a long spot + short out - of - the - money call option strategy for spot hedging [14]. - **Soda Ash**: The market is in a weak downward trend. Strategies include constructing a bearish put spread, a short bearish call + put option combination, and a long collar strategy for spot hedging [14]. 3.3.7 Urea - related Options - The enterprise inventory is decreasing, and the market shows a short - term bullish trend after a decline. A short neutral call + put option combination strategy and a long spot + long at - the - money put + short out - of - the - money call option strategy for spot hedging are recommended [15].

聚烯烃产业期现日报 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可【2011】1292号 2025年6月23日 免费声明 本报告中的信息均来源于被广发期货有限公司认为可靠的已公开资料、但厂发期货对这些信息的能确性及完整体不作任何保证。本报告反映研究人 员的不同观点、见解及分析方法。并不代表广发期货或其附属机构的立场。 在任何情况下。 报告内容仅供参考,报告中的信息或所表达的意见并不 风险自担。本报告旨在发送给广发期货特定客户及其他专业人士,题权归广发期货所有,未经 构成所述品种买卖的出价或询价。 投资者据此投资, 广发期货书面授权. 任何人不得对本报告进行任何形式的发布、复制。如引用、刊发、需注明出处为广发期货。 6 关注微信公众号 知识图强,求实奉献,客户至上,合作共赢 张晓珍 Z0003135 些业期现日报 | 品中 | 6月20日 | 6月19日 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 | 单位 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | L2601收盘价 | 7347 | 7399 | -55 | -0.70% | | | L2509 收盘价 | 7415 | 7462 | -47 | -0.63% ...

光大期货能化商品日报 光大期货能化商品日报（2025 年 6 月 20 日） 一、研究观点 | 品种 | 点评 | 观点 | | --- | --- | --- | | | 周四油价重心继续上移，其中 WTI 7 月原油即期合约因六月节假 | | | | 期休市。布伦特 8 月合约收盘上涨 2.15 美元至 78.85 美元/桶，涨 | | | | 幅 2.80%。SC2508 以 574.5 元/桶收盘，上涨 15.5 元/桶，涨幅为 | | | | 2.77%。知情人士称，美国总统特朗普已告诉他的高级助手，称他 | | | | 已批准了对伊朗的攻击计划，但暂不下达最终命令，以观察伊朗 | | | | 是否会放弃其核计划。美国高级官员正在为未来几天对伊朗发动 | | | | 袭击的可能性做准备。伊朗副外长加里布阿巴迪警告美国不要为 | | | | 了支持以色列而介入以方与伊朗的冲突。加里布阿巴迪表示，如 | | | 原油 | 果美国执意介入，伊朗将作出回应。花旗银行表示，如果伊朗以 | 震荡 | | | 色列冲突升级，导致伊朗 110 万桶/日的石油出口中断，以 5 月的 | | | | 出口水平为基准，可 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The energy - chemical sector is divided into energy, alcohols, polyolefins, rubber, polyesters, alkalis, and others. Strategies mainly involve constructing option combination strategies focused on sellers and spot hedging or covered strategies to enhance returns [3][9]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market Overview - Various energy - chemical futures showed different price movements. For example, crude oil (SC2508) rose 3.52% to 564, and liquefied petroleum gas (PG2508) rose 1.15% to 4,469. Trading volumes and open interests also changed accordingly [4]. 3.2 Option Factors - Volume and Open Interest PCR - Option volume and open interest PCR values varied among different varieties. For instance, the open interest PCR of crude oil was 1.65 with a 0.18 change, indicating the strength of the market sentiment [5]. 3.3 Option Factors - Pressure and Support Levels - Pressure and support levels were identified for each option variety. For example, the pressure level of crude oil was 610 and the support level was 450 [6]. 3.4 Option Factors - Implied Volatility - Implied volatility levels differed across different options. Crude oil's implied volatility was relatively high, with a weighted implied volatility of 51.85% and an increase of 8.52% [7]. 3.5 Option Strategies and Recommendations - **Energy - related Options (Crude Oil and LPG)**: - Fundamental analysis considered factors such as US economic data and geopolitical conflicts. - Option strategies included constructing bull spread combinations for directional gains, selling call + put option combinations for time - value and directional returns, and using long - collar strategies for spot hedging [8][10]. - **Alcohol - related Options (Methanol and Ethylene Glycol)**: - Fundamental analysis focused on inventory and production. - Similar option strategies were proposed as in energy - related options [10][11]. - **Polyolefin - related Options (Polypropylene, PVC, Plastic, and Styrene)**: - Fundamental analysis involved downstream开工 rates and inventory levels. - Directional strategies mainly included bull spread combinations, and some had no volatility strategies [11]. - **Rubber - related Options**: - Fundamental analysis considered overseas production, policies, and tire industry conditions. - Volatility strategies involved selling neutral call + put option combinations [12]. - **Polyester - related Options**: - Fundamental analysis was based on inventory and downstream demand. - Volatility strategies included selling neutral call + put option combinations [13]. - **Alkali - related Options (Caustic Soda and Soda Ash)**: - Fundamental analysis focused on production, capacity utilization, and inventory. - Directional strategies included bear spread combinations for caustic soda and soda ash, and volatility strategies involved selling bearish option combinations [14]. - **Urea Options**: - Fundamental analysis considered inventory and price trends. - Volatility strategies included selling neutral call + put option combinations [15].

Group 1: General Information - The report is a daily report on the polyolefin industry dated June 20, 2025 [1][2] - The energy and chemical research team includes researchers for polyolefins, crude oil and fuel oil, PTA, MEG, urea, industrial silicon, pulp, and glass - soda ash [4] Group 2: Futures Market Quotes - For plastic 2601, the opening price was 7370 yuan/ton, closing at 7399 yuan/ton, with a high of 7417 yuan/ton, a low of 7353 yuan/ton, a rise of 62 yuan/ton (0.85% increase), a position of 106,997 lots, and a position change of - 1395 lots [5] - For plastic 2605, the opening price was 7368 yuan/ton, closing at 7375 yuan/ton, with a high of 7400 yuan/ton, a low of 7342 yuan/ton, a rise of 48 yuan/ton (0.66% increase), a position of 801 lots, and a position change of 6 lots [5] - For plastic 2509, the opening price was 7425 yuan/ton, closing at 7462 yuan/ton, with a high of 7479 yuan/ton, a low of 7397 yuan/ton, a rise of 71 yuan/ton (0.96% increase), a position of 478,375 lots, and a position change of 2116 lots [5] - For PP2601, the opening price was 7149 yuan/ton, closing at 7221 yuan/ton, with a high of 7233 yuan/ton, a low of 7149 yuan/ton, a rise of 101 yuan/ton (1.42% increase), a position of 91,599 lots, and a position change of 3106 lots [5] - For PP2605, the opening price was 7159 yuan/ton, closing at 7208 yuan/ton, with a high of 7214 yuan/ton, a low of 7159 yuan/ton, a rise of 100 yuan/ton (1.41% increase), a position of 987 lots, and a position change of - 1 lot [5] - For PP2509, the opening price was 7215 yuan/ton, closing at 7274 yuan/ton, with a high of 7279 yuan/ton, a low of 7213 yuan/ton, a rise of 85 yuan/ton (1.18% increase), a position of 487,507 lots, and a position change of 10,454 lots [5] Group 3: Market Review and Outlook - L2509 opened higher, fluctuated upward during the session, and closed up at 7462 yuan/ton, up 71 yuan/ton (0.96%), with a trading volume of 430,000 lots and an increase in positions by 2137 to 478,396 lots. PP's main contract closed at 7274 yuan/ton, up 85 yuan (1.18% increase), with an increase in positions by 10,500 lots to 487,500 lots [6] - The futures market maintained high - level fluctuations, but the market trading atmosphere was average. Traders raised prices following the market, while downstream buyers were resistant to high - priced goods and mainly made purchases based on rigid demand [6] - Geopolitical tensions in the Middle East showed signs of escalation, and risk - aversion sentiment supported oil prices. The shutdown of Iranian methanol plants pushed up MA. Polyolefins were in a stage of strong cost and weak supply - demand game. In the short term, cost logic supported the upward movement of polyolefin prices, but downstream demand was difficult to follow up, and the basis of plastic and PP continued to weaken [6] Group 4: Industry News - On June 19, 2025, the inventory level of major producers was 760,000 tons, a decrease of 25,000 tons (3.18% decline) from the previous working day, the same as the inventory level in the same period last year [7] - The PE market prices rose steadily. In North China, some linear PE prices increased by 20 - 80 yuan/ton, some high - pressure PE prices increased by 20 - 250 yuan/ton, and some low - pressure PE prices increased by 10 - 150 yuan/ton. In East China, some high - pressure PE prices increased by 20 - 150 yuan/ton, some low - pressure PE prices increased by 20 - 100 yuan/ton, and some linear PE prices increased by 20 - 50 yuan/ton. In South China, some linear and low - pressure PE prices increased by 10 - 50 yuan/ton, and some high - pressure PE prices increased by 20 - 100 yuan/ton [7] - The PP market still showed an upward trend. The high - level fluctuation of futures continued to boost the spot market atmosphere. Some petrochemical plants raised their prices, and cost support remained. Traders' quotation centers moved up, but downstream buyers were cautious, with low willingness to enter the market. The actual transaction volume was limited, and transactions were mainly at the lower negotiated prices [7] - The mainstream prices of North China PP drawstring in the morning were 7160 - 7270 yuan/ton, 7240 - 7330 yuan/ton in East China, and 7170 - 7330 yuan/ton in South China [7] Group 5: Data Overview - The report includes data on futures market quotes, L - PP spread, crude oil futures settlement price, L and PP basis, and two - oil inventories and their year - on - year changes, with data sources from Wind and Zhuochuang Information [5][11][15][18]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In the polyolefin industry, oil price surges suppress the cost - end, profits are compressed to the lowest level of the year, and inventories are differentiated. PE is recommended for positive spreads, while PP is recommended for short - positions in the medium - term [21]. - In the methanol industry, due to geopolitical conflicts, the market has a strong long - position sentiment. Short - term strategies are recommended for positive spreads, and it is necessary to track the situation in Iran and MTO dynamics [30]. - In the PVC and caustic soda industry, caustic soda supply still exerts pressure, demand is weak, and there are inventory risks. PVC has short - term price increases but long - term supply - demand contradictions. It is recommended to wait and see in the short - term and take short - positions in the medium - term [32][35]. - In the urea industry, the short - term futures market is affected by rising Middle - East FOB prices and domestic factory export orders. The market is expected to be in high - level oscillations, with a bullish bias [38]. - In the styrene industry, short - term geopolitical factors drive prices up, but there is a possibility of supply - demand weakening. It is recommended to wait and see in the short - term and look for short - position opportunities in the medium - term [43]. - In the polyester industry, PX, PTA, ethylene glycol, short - fiber, and bottle - chip have different supply - demand situations. Strategies vary from short - term strength to long - term supply - demand balance adjustments [47]. - In the crude oil industry, geopolitical premiums have declined, and the market is likely to continue high - level oscillations in the short - term. It is recommended to wait and see on the spot side and capture volatility - narrowing opportunities on the options side [52]. 3. Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs Polyolefin Industry - **Prices**: L2601, L2509, PP2601, and PP2509 closing prices all increased on June 18 compared to June 17, with increases ranging from 1.25% to 1.38% [21]. - **Inventory**: PE enterprise inventory decreased by 1.83%, and social inventory decreased by 4.56%. PP enterprise inventory increased by 4.52%, and trader inventory increased by 5.31% [21]. - **Operation Rate**: PE device operation rate increased by 2.27%, and downstream weighted operation rate decreased by 1.00%. PP device operation rate increased by 2.1%, and powder operation rate decreased by 1.3% [21]. Methanol Industry - **Prices**: MA2601 and MA2509 closing prices increased on June 18 compared to June 17, with increases of 1.83% and 2.53% respectively. Port prices increased significantly [30]. - **Inventory**: Methanol enterprise inventory decreased by 3.10%, port inventory decreased by 10.09%, and social inventory decreased by 7.52% [30]. - **Operation Rate**: Upstream domestic enterprise operation rate increased by 0.83%, and downstream external - procurement MTO device operation rate increased by 0.85% [30]. PVC and Caustic Soda Industry - **Prices**: PVC and caustic soda futures and spot prices had different changes on June 18 compared to June 17. Caustic soda export profit increased significantly, while PVC export profit decreased [32]. - **Supply**: Caustic soda industry operation rate decreased by 2.6%, and PVC total operation rate data was unavailable. PVC external - procurement calcium carbide method profit increased by 5.5% [33]. - **Demand**: Alumina industry operation rate increased by 2.0%, and PVC downstream product operation rates generally decreased [34][35]. - **Inventory**: Caustic soda had inventory differentiation, with East China de - stocking and Shandong stocking. PVC upstream factory inventory decreased by 0.4%, and total social inventory decreased by 1.8% [35]. Urea Industry - **Prices**: Urea futures prices had different changes on June 18 compared to June 17. Spot prices in different regions also had slight fluctuations [38]. - **Supply**: Domestic urea daily output increased by 1.00%, and production factory operation rate increased by 1.00% [38]. - **Inventory**: Domestic urea factory inventory decreased by 3.49%, and port inventory remained unchanged [38]. Styrene Industry - **Raw Material Prices**: Prices of Brent crude oil, CFR Japan naphtha, CFR Northeast Asia ethylene, and CFR China pure benzene all increased on June 18 compared to June 17 [40]. - **Styrene Prices**: Styrene East China spot price and futures prices increased on June 18 compared to June 17 [41]. - **Operation Rate and Inventory**: Domestic pure benzene comprehensive operation rate increased by 2.9%, styrene operation rate increased by 2.1%. Port inventories of pure benzene and styrene decreased [43]. Polyester Industry - **Prices**: Prices of polyester products such as POY, FDY, DTY, and polyester chips increased on June 18 compared to June 17. PX, PTA, and MEG prices also had different changes [47]. - **Operation Rate**: Asian and Chinese PX operation rates, PTA operation rate, and MEG comprehensive operation rate had different changes [47]. - **Inventory**: MEG port inventory decreased, and PTA and MEG inventories had different trends [47]. Crude Oil Industry - **Prices**: Brent, WTI, and SC crude oil prices had different changes on June 19 compared to June 18. Product oil prices and cracking spreads also had fluctuations [52]. - **Inventory**: EIA data showed that last week's US crude oil inventory unexpectedly decreased, far exceeding market expectations [52]. - **Market Outlook**: Geopolitical premiums have declined, and the market is expected to continue high - level oscillations in the short - term [52].