筑牢反洗钱防线，不是一句空口号，而是一系列真行动。从具体内容看，《办法》通过三大机制严查严 管：一是建立穿透式监管机制，要求从业机构不仅记录交易双方信息，还需追溯资金来源与用途；二是 构建"智能+人工"双重审核体系，通过大数据分析异常交易模式，辅以人工复核确保报告质量；三是形 成监管—机构—客户三方联动，要求机构在开展业务前进行客户风险等级划分。 （文章来源：经济日报） 在构建严密的监管防控网络时，也要注意兼顾市场活力，避免出现"一刀切"现象。在贵金属与珠宝交易 中，非现金支付更加常见，大额现金交易比较少见。《办法》将要求报告的交易明确为"10万元人民币 以上现金交易"，体现出加强监管的本质并非限制或者禁止正常的零售、回收等交易，而是有针对性地 对洗钱风险较高的交易行为采取预防措施。 近期，中国人民银行发布《贵金属和宝石从业机构反洗钱和反恐怖融资管理办法》（以下简称《办 法》），首次将非银行支付机构、贵金属珠宝商等非传统金融机构纳入反洗钱监管框架，要求单笔或日 累计10万元人民币以上现金交易须在5个工作日内向中国反洗钱监测分析中心提交报告。这一制度创新 标志着我国反洗钱体系向非金融领域延伸取得突破性进展，为贵 ...

Group 1 - The A-share market has shown strong upward momentum, with the Shanghai Composite Index breaking through the 3500-point mark and trading volume exceeding 1.7 trillion yuan [2] - The financial sector has led the market rally, supported by a surge in short-term capital chasing high-performing stocks as semi-annual earnings forecasts are released [2] - Institutions suggest that investors should shift from a trading strategy to a holding strategy in light of the market's transition from a stock-based to an incremental market [4][5] Group 2 - Positive factors for the A-share market continue to accumulate, with strong risk appetite reflected in trading behavior and capital flows [3] - The market is increasingly focusing on fundamental factors rather than external disturbances, indicating a shift in pricing dynamics [3] - The strong upward trend in the A-share market is expected to continue, with significant conditions for a major rally accumulating [3] Group 3 - The market has seen a shift from net outflows to net inflows in actively managed public funds since June, marking a reversal in the trend of capital withdrawal [4] - Different sectors, including non-ferrous metals, telecommunications, and gaming, have shown synchronized upward movement, indicating the presence of incremental capital across various funding entities [5] Group 4 - The performance of semi-annual earnings is crucial for trading strategies, with sectors like TMT (Technology, Media, and Telecommunications) expected to perform well [6] - High-growth industries such as automotive parts, automation equipment, and consumer goods are recommended for investment, alongside sectors with improving performance like precious metals and pharmaceuticals [6] - Predictions indicate that industries such as light industry, non-ferrous metals, and non-bank financials may experience high growth rates in their semi-annual earnings [6]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Outperform the Market" (maintained) [1][59]. Core Views - Precious Metals - Gold: The expectation of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve has diminished, leading to a positive outlook for gold in the medium to long term. As of July 11, the COMEX gold futures contract decreased by 1.61% to $3,370.3 per ounce. The SPDR Gold ETF remained stable at 947.6 tons. The World Gold Council reported an increase of $38 billion in global gold ETFs in the first half of the year, with total holdings rising by 397 tons to 3,616 tons. In the medium to long term, ongoing macroeconomic uncertainties and concerns over the U.S. fiscal deficit support a bullish outlook for gold [4][7]. - Industrial Metals: The imminent imposition of tariffs on copper by the U.S. is expected to increase short-term volatility. As of July 11, the LME copper futures contract fell by 1.9% to $9,663 per ton. Domestic copper social inventory reached 143,700 tons, with a week-on-week increase of 11,900 tons. The LME copper inventory stood at 108,700 tons. The announcement of a 50% tariff on all imported copper by Trump, effective August 1, has led to a widening price gap between COMEX and LME copper [5][6][58]. Summary by Sections Precious Metals - Gold: The medium to long-term outlook for gold remains positive due to diminishing pressure from interest rate cut expectations and ongoing macroeconomic uncertainties. The total holdings in gold ETFs have increased significantly, indicating strong demand [4][7]. Industrial Metals - Copper: The upcoming tariffs are likely to lead to increased volatility in the copper market. Despite short-term challenges, the medium-term outlook remains positive due to supply constraints and low inventory levels [5][6][58]. - Aluminum: As of July 11, LME aluminum futures rose by 0.2% to $2,602 per ton. Domestic aluminum social inventory decreased slightly, and the global inventory remains low. The supply-demand dynamics suggest a bullish outlook for aluminum prices in the medium term [6][58]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on the gold, copper, and aluminum sectors. For gold, the recommendation is to pay attention to Chifeng Jilong Gold Mining. For copper, the focus is on Zijin Mining, and for aluminum, Tianshan Aluminum is highlighted as a potential investment [7][58].

行 业 及 产 业 有色金属 2025 年 07 月 13 日 证券分析师 郭中伟 A0230524120004 guozw@swsresearch.com 马焰明 A0230523090003 maym@swsresearch.com 陈松涛 A0230523090002 chenst@swsresearch.com 宋涛 A0230516070001 songtao@swsresearch.com 研究支持 郭中耀 A0230124070003 guozy@swsresearch.com 联系人 郭中耀 (8621)23297818× guozy@swsresearch.com 美国铜关税超预期，关注供需支撑 看好 ——金属&新材料行业周报20250707-20250711 本期投资提示： 请务必仔细阅读正文之后的各项信息披露与声明 本研究报告仅通过邮件提供给 中庚基金 使用。1 行 业 研 究 / 行 业 点 评 证 券 研 究 报 告 ⚫ 一周行情回顾：据 ifind，环比上周 1）上证指数上涨 1.09%，深证成指上涨 1.78%，沪深 300 上涨 0.82%，有色金属（申万）指数上涨 1.02% ...

有色金属周报 20250713 美进口关税扰动铜价，金银价格企稳上行 2025 年 07 月 13 日 ➢ 本周（07/07-07/11）上证综指上涨 1.09%，沪深 300 指数上涨 0.82%，SW 有 色指数上涨 1.02%，贵金属 COMEX 黄金变动+1.03%，COMEX 白银变动+5.49%。 工业金属 LME 铝、铜、锌、铅、镍、锡价格分别变动+0.17%、-1.92%、+0.09%、- 1.94%、-0.16%、-0.61%，工业金属库存 LME 铝、铜、锌、铅、镍、锡分别变动 +9.99%、15.27%、-6.30%、-5.28%、+1.83%、-6.64%。 ➢ 工业金属：美国大幅提升铜进口关税，Comex 和 LME、上交所铜价走势分化， 国补政策刺激国内宏观持续向好，看好工业金属价格。铜方面，美国宣布 8 月可能提高 进口关税到 50%，Comex 铜价大幅上行，同时贸易流的改变也打压了 LME 和上交所 铜价。本周 SMM 进口铜精矿指数（周）报-43.79 美元/吨，环比增加 0.46 美元/吨。 需求端开工继续下行，SMM 铜线缆企业开工率 71.52%，环比上升 3.7pc ...

Core Insights - The report indicates that the current real estate market is experiencing a phase of valuation recovery, supported by policy expectations, with potential for further upside in the coming weeks [3][7][24] - The banking sector is expected to maintain a trend of upward momentum, driven by high dividend yields and stable operational logic, despite recent market fluctuations [6][21][23] Market Perspectives - The upcoming economic data release on July 15 is anticipated to show resilience, with GDP growth expected to be in the range of 5.1% to 5.3%, slightly lower than the previous quarter's 5.4% [4][14][18] - The divergence in CPI and PPI trends suggests a potential for mild price improvements, which could positively impact the market if the GDP growth exceeds expectations [4][14][15] Industry Allocation - The banking sector is projected to see a significant increase in dividend yields, with short-term expectations of a rise of 0.3% to 0.62% before August, and a further increase of 0.6% to 1.21% by early 2026 [6][21][23] - The real estate sector is currently in a typical down-cycle phase, with historical patterns suggesting a potential for a 5% to 15% increase in the index over the next month, driven by policy easing [7][24][26] Specific Opportunities - The report highlights three main investment themes: 1. Banks and insurance companies with strong dividend stability and long-term capital inflow [30] 2. Real estate stocks benefiting from anticipated policy easing [30] 3. Sectors with robust demand support, including rare earths, precious metals, and agricultural chemicals [31]

探索金丰来的独特视角，掌握黄金白银投资的多元化策略，让您的财富更稳健增长。点击了解如何实现投资 组合的完美平衡！ 你可能一直在寻找一种能够实现财富增值的投资方式，而黄金白银无疑是不错的选择。在这篇文章中，我们 将带你走进金丰来的投资世界，帮助你了解如何通过多元化策略在黄金白银市场中获利。你会发现在全球市 场趋势分析、现货交易策略、期货合约的应用以及贵金属基金的选择中，如何做出明智的决定。不管你的风 险承受能力如何，我们都会为你提供合适的建议和方案。让我们一起探索这些策略，确保你的投资组合更加 稳健和多样化。 ## 关键要点 理解全球市场趋势和地缘政治事件对黄金白银投资的影响。 通过期货合约锁定价格，规避黄金白银市场的下跌风险。 选择合适的贵金属基金，注重管理费用和回报率。 设定止损点并进行全面风险评估，以管理黄金白银投资风险。 全球市场趋势分析会让你更好地理解当前的经济动向。你会发现，国际政治因素对市场的影响可能比你想象 得更大。抓住这些趋势，你能更自信地做出投资决策。 现货交易策略中，你应该关注市场的实时变化以便做出快速决策。灵活性是关键，你得准备好根据最新的信 息调整你的计划。别忘了，情绪管理在交易中同样 ...

新手投资黄金白银？金丰来教你快速入门，轻松掌握投资秘诀，让财富增值不再是难题！立即点击，开启您的财富之旅！ 在当今金融市场中，黄金和白银作为避险资产，因其独特的保值功能和市场流动性，吸引了众多投资者的关注。本指南旨在为新手投资者提供全 面而深入的黄金白银投资知识，帮助他们在复杂的市场环境中做出明智的决策。文章将详细探讨黄金白银的基本概念、投资渠道选择以及市场历 史与现状，为投资者建立坚实的基础。同时，将介绍如何进行市场趋势分析和识别投资风险，以便更好地保护投资资产。此外，我们还将为读者 提供资产配置策略、技术分析技巧以及影响贵金属价格的关键因素，助力投资者在黄金白银市场中实现稳健收益。 ## 关键要点 分析市场动态与价格影响因素，了解经济指标、地缘政治及货币政策对市场的影响。 根据个人风险承受能力和财务目标选择合适的投资渠道，黄金适合长期投资者，白银适合高风险承受者。 关注市场趋势分析，综合宏观经济因素、技术指标及市场情绪，密切监测全球经济动态。 资产配置需考虑风险承受能力，分散投资及多元化组合以降低风险，提高长期收益的稳定性。 ## 黄金白银投资的基本概念 黄金白银投资被视为抵御通货膨胀和经济不确定性的重要 ...

当地时间7月11日，截至收盘，道指、纳指、标普500指数分别下跌0.63%、0.22%、0.33%。 | 美股指数 △ | | | | --- | --- | --- | | 道琼斯 | 纳斯达克 | 标普500 | | 44371.51 | 20585.53 | 6259.75 | | -279.13 -0.63% -45.13 -0.22% -20.71 -0.33% | | | | 中国金龙指数 | 纳指100期货 | 标普500期货 | | 7436.34 | 22938.00 | 6294.00 | | -31.76 -0.43% -75.25 -0.33% -30.25 -0.48% | | | 图片来源：Wind 当地时间7月11日， 美股三大股指集体下跌。英伟达延续近期涨势，股价再创历史新高。多只热门中概 股表现活跃，未来金融科技大涨逾160%。 在国际贸易局势和地缘政治局势持续紧张等因素推动下，国际贵金属价格及原油价格集体上涨。国际银 价涨势明显，创出近14年来新高。 在业内机构看来，白银当前的上涨机会较大，不过白银投机性强使得短期价格波动具有较大不确定性。 英伟达续创历史 新高 黄仁勋再度 ...

Market Performance - On July 11, all three major U.S. stock indices closed lower, with the Dow Jones down 0.63%, Nasdaq down 0.22%, and S&P 500 down 0.33% [1] - Large tech stocks performed better than the overall market, with Nvidia rising 0.48% to a new all-time high, and Google, Amazon, and Tesla all increasing by over 1% [2] Individual Stock Movements - Notable stock movements included Google (Alphabet) at $181.26 (+1.43%), Amazon at $224.99 (+1.23%), and Tesla at $313.50 (+1.17%), while Facebook (Meta Platforms) fell by 1.32% [3] - Among Chinese concept stocks, the Nasdaq Golden Dragon China Index fell by 0.43%, with Baidu down over 1% and BYD ADR down 1% [3][4] Commodity Prices - Gold, silver, and crude oil prices increased, with silver rising over 3.7% to a peak of $38.41 per ounce, the highest level since September 2011, and year-to-date silver has gained over 32%, outpacing gold [4][5] Trade and Tariff Implications - The recent U.S. tariff threats have raised concerns about rising consumer prices, with President Trump announcing a 50% tariff on all goods imported from Brazil starting August 1 [5][6] - Analysts suggest that high tariffs on Brazilian goods will increase living costs for U.S. consumers [6] Federal Reserve Outlook - Federal Reserve officials indicated that the new tariff threats could delay interest rate cuts, with Chicago Fed President Goolsbee stating that the tariffs complicate the inflation outlook [7] - Goolsbee emphasized the need for clearer information before making decisions on interest rates, despite political pressures [7]