1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The overall non - ferrous metals market is expected to show a strong and volatile trend. The Fed's interest - rate cut expectations and domestic policies have a positive impact on the market. Different metals have different trends and investment suggestions based on their supply - demand fundamentals and market news [3][4]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Main Variety Views Copper - The copper price is expected to maintain a volatile and strong trend. Short - term, the Shanghai copper is predicted to operate in the range of 78300 - 79500 yuan/ton. It is recommended to conduct range trading or stay on the sidelines [3]. Aluminum - The aluminum price is in an upward trend with shock adjustments. It is recommended to take the opportunity to place long orders for Shanghai aluminum and cast aluminum alloy, and stay on the sidelines for alumina [3]. Zinc - The zinc price is expected to oscillate within the range of 22000 - 23000 yuan/ton. It is recommended to conduct range trading [3]. Lead - The lead price is expected to maintain a short - term oscillatory pattern, and it is recommended to go long at low prices within the range of 16500 - 17200 yuan/ton [3]. Nickel - In the medium - to - long - term, the nickel industry has an oversupply situation. It is recommended to moderately hold short positions at high prices for nickel, with the main contract operating in the range of 120000 - 124000 yuan/ton. For stainless steel, range trading is recommended, with the main contract operating in the range of 12800 - 13200 yuan/ton [4]. Tin - The tin price is expected to oscillate within the range of 257,000 - 276,000 yuan/ton. It is recommended to conduct range trading and continue to monitor supply resumption and downstream demand recovery [4]. Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon - Due to various market rumors, the risks in the industrial silicon and polysilicon markets are relatively high. It is recommended to stay on the sidelines [4]. Carbonate Lithium - The carbonate lithium price is expected to continue its strong trend. It is recommended to trade cautiously and continue to monitor upstream enterprise production cuts and cathode material factory production schedules [4]. 3.2 Metal Inventory - As of August 15, 2025, the global inventory of non - ferrous metals showed different trends. For example, the global copper inventory increased by 1.27% week - on - week, the global aluminum inventory decreased by 1.38% week - on - week, and the global zinc inventory increased by 8.38% week - on - week [9]. 3.3 Macro Hotspots 3.3.1 Current Week's Macro Data - From August 11 - 17, a series of macro - economic data were released. For example, the eurozone's August ZEW economic sentiment index was 25.1, the US July core CPI year - on - year was 3.1%, and China's July M2 money supply year - on - year was 8.8% [13]. 3.3.2 Sino - US Trade and Financial Data - Since August 12, 2025, the 24% tariff has been suspended for 90 days again. In July, China's new social financing was 1.16 trillion yuan, and RMB loans decreased by 500 million yuan. The year - on - year growth rate of China's social consumer goods retail sales in July slowed down to 3.7%, and the real estate development investment from January to July decreased by 12% year - on - year [14][15][16][17]. 3.3.3 US Economic Data - In July, the US CPI year - on - year was 2.7%, lower than expected, while the core CPI growth rate reached a new high since February. The US July PPI year - on - year soared from 2.3% to 3.3%, and the month - on - month was 0.9%, a three - year high. The US July customs tariff revenue reached 28 billion US dollars, a record high, but the fiscal deficit still expanded [18][19][20]. 3.3.4 Next Week's Macro Data Calendar - From August 18 - 24, important macro - economic data such as the US July new housing starts month - on - month, China's August LPR, and the eurozone's July core harmonized CPI year - on - year final value are scheduled to be released [22]. 3.4 Market Trends and Key Data Tracking - For each metal, the report provides market trend charts (monthly, daily, quarterly lines) and key data tracking, including inventory, spot premium and discount, institutional positions, etc. For example, for copper, it shows the Shanghai copper main contract's monthly line, daily line, and LME copper's relevant data [26][27][28][37][39].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the aluminum industry [1]. Core Viewpoints - The aluminum processing sector is witnessing a recovery in operating rates, with expectations for inventory to reach a turning point. The upcoming "Golden September and Silver October" peak season is anticipated to boost demand [11]. - The macroeconomic environment is leaning towards favorable conditions, with expectations of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve and a temporary suspension of tariffs between China and the U.S. [6]. - The report highlights that the current low inventory levels and reduced aluminum ingot supply provide support for aluminum prices [11]. Summary by Sections 1. Prices - As of August 15, the LME three-month aluminum closing price was $2,603.0 per ton, down $12.0 from the previous week but up $276.0 year-on-year [24]. - The Shanghai aluminum active contract closing price was 20,770.0 yuan per ton, up 85.0 yuan week-on-week and up 1,755.0 yuan year-on-year [24]. - The average price of A00 aluminum in Changjiang was 20,680.0 yuan per ton, up 50.0 yuan week-on-week and up 1,750.0 yuan year-on-year [24]. 2. Production - In July 2025, the production of electrolytic aluminum was 3.721 million tons, an increase of 112,000 tons month-on-month and 168,000 tons year-on-year [55]. - The production of alumina in July 2025 was 7.650 million tons, up 392,000 tons month-on-month and 808,000 tons year-on-year [55]. 3. Inventory - As of August 14, the inventory of electrolytic aluminum ingots in major domestic consumption areas was 588,000 tons, an increase of 24,000 tons week-on-week [7]. - The inventory of aluminum rods was 138,500 tons, down 4,000 tons week-on-week, indicating a continuous decline due to reduced production by manufacturers [7]. 4. Key Companies and Earnings Forecast - Key companies in the aluminum sector include China Hongqiao, Tianshan Aluminum, Shenhuo Co., China Aluminum, and Yunnan Aluminum, all rated as "Buy" [5].

Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the foundry aluminum alloy industry is "Bullish" [4] Core Viewpoints of the Report - The scarcity of scrap aluminum resources and the expected increase in demand for ticketed resources and imported raw materials provide strong support for the price of ADC12. Considering the expected production cuts due to policies and the strong market sentiment for long - positions, it is recommended to pay attention to the opportunity of going long on AD2511 at low prices. Additionally, an arbitrage opportunity of going long on AD2511 and short on AL2511 when the spread is below - 500 can be considered [2][15][20] Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Scrap Aluminum Arrival is Scarce, Beware of the Risk of Tax Rebate Decline - Last week (08/11 - 08/15), the price of recycled cast aluminum alloy ingots fluctuated strongly. The closing price of AD2511 increased by 0.3% to 20,165 yuan/ton, and the selling price of Baotai Group's ADC12 increased by 100 yuan/ton to 19,900 yuan/ton. The cost side was strongly supported, and the profit margin widened [12] - The prices of different scrap aluminum varieties showed mixed trends this week. The factors affecting the fundamentals of scrap aluminum include the cooling of the domestic anti - involution sentiment, the high inflation data in the US, the slowdown of order - taking by spot - futures traders and traditional traders, and the reduction or suspension of production by some enterprises, which suppresses the upward movement of scrap aluminum prices [13] - The raw material inventory in national alloy ingot factories and the social inventory of scrap aluminum have both increased marginally. However, due to the high price of scrap aluminum, aluminum enterprises have insufficient purchasing willingness. The arrival of scrap aluminum has decreased, and it is expected that the inventory at the scrap aluminum end will not continue to accumulate. The demand for ticketed resources and imported raw materials is expected to increase significantly, which may widen the procurement price difference between East and South China [14][15] - The 2025 (770) document requires the rectification of illegal fiscal rebates and subsidies in local government investment promotion. The cancellation of tax rebates and the investigation of reverse - invoicing will significantly increase enterprise production costs, and there may be a transfer of production capacity in tax - preferential areas. It is expected that the spot supply of aluminum alloy will tighten significantly, which is negative for scrap aluminum prices [16] 2. Review of Weekly Industry News - The National Development and Reform Commission and other four ministries jointly issued a notice to rectify illegal fiscal rebates and subsidies in local government investment promotion, including the full - scale inspection and abolition of relevant policies, the immediate suspension of illegal clauses in existing projects, and the prohibition of various illegal operations. For some specific violations, a transition period can be set, with the latest exit deadline of August 2027 [21] - The US government announced an expansion of the scope of the 50% tariff on steel and aluminum imports, including hundreds of derivative products. The expanded tariff list will take effect on August 18 [21] 3. Monitoring of Key High - Frequency Data in the Industrial Chain 3.1 Scrap Aluminum: Tight Arrival and Slight Inventory Accumulation - The report provides multiple data charts on scrap aluminum, including monthly production, monthly shipments, weekly procurement volume of traders, regional production, inventory of traders and foundry aluminum alloy factories, price trends, and the price difference between scrap and primary aluminum, reflecting the current situation of tight arrival and slight inventory accumulation of scrap aluminum [23][25][27] 3.2 ADC12: Strong Price and High Social Inventory - The report presents data on the closing price of the main contract of foundry aluminum alloy, term structure, basis, sales price, price difference with A00 aluminum, production and operation rate of recycled aluminum alloy ingots, social and in - factory inventory, and production and import profits, indicating that the price of ADC12 is strong and the social inventory is high [35][38][40] 3.3 Downstream: Weakening Start - up of Semi - Steel Tires and the Automobile Industry Still in the Off - season - The report uses data on the monthly consumption of recycled cast aluminum, automobile production (including new energy and fuel vehicles), motorcycle production, inventory warning index, and start - up rates of semi - steel and full - steel tires to show that the start - up of semi - steel tires is weakening and the automobile industry is still in the off - season [59][60][62]

Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information provided regarding the report's industry investment rating. Core Views - The probability of the Fed cutting interest rates in September has increased; the reported meeting between Trump and Putin is expected to have a significant short - term impact on the market; China's July CPI data beat expectations, and under the influence of "anti - involution" and positive policy expectations, the probability of macro funds entering the market to go long has increased [6]. - After the Fed's July FOMC meeting and China's mid - year economic meeting, the short - term macro environment is in a window period, but the Trump - Putin meeting may increase market volatility. Currently, the Shanghai aluminum industry is in the off - season, with a slightly wider spot discount, general overall trading, and still in the inventory accumulation cycle. The 21,000 level is an important resistance level. Considering that social inventory is still relatively low compared to the same period, and the sentiment in China's capital market remains strong under expectation guidance, it has a strong driving effect on the Shanghai aluminum price. Therefore, the market is likely to oscillate in the range of 20,400 - 21,000 [8]. Summary by Directory Alumina - Industry Fundamentals Supply - In June, the in - production capacity increased by 3.65 million tons month - on - month, and the operating rate increased slightly. The weekly domestic arrival volume of ore increased, but the shipment volume from Guinea decreased significantly. In June 2025, China's net alumina exports were 68,700 tons, a significant month - on - month decrease, with 15 consecutive months of net exports, and the export profit margin slightly narrowed [9]. - In July 2025, China's total alumina production capacity was 113.02 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 8.65% and a month - on - month increase of 100,000 tons; the in - production capacity was 94.65 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 7.37% and a month - on - month increase of 1.5 million tons [11]. - In June 2025, China's alumina output was 7.7493 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 7.8%; the cumulative output this year was 45.151 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 9.3% [14]. - In July 2025, China's alumina operating rate was 83.75%, at a moderately high level in history, returning to the same level as last year, with a month - on - month increase of 1.26%. There is still significant upside potential based on the seasonal chart, indicating high supply elasticity [17]. Demand - The in - production capacity of electrolytic aluminum increased slightly and remained at a high level, so the short - term demand for alumina was relatively stable [9]. Cost - The price of Guinea bauxite increased slightly week - on - week. The CIF average price of Guinea bauxite was reported at $77 per ton, up $0.5 per ton from the previous week; the CIF average price of Australian bauxite remained unchanged at $69 per ton [27]. - The latest price of caustic soda was 3,640 yuan per ton, a week - on - week decrease of 10 yuan per ton, a decline of 0.27% [30]. Profit - The full production cost of alumina was 2,847.8 yuan per ton, with a profit of 418 yuan per ton. The cost increased slightly, and the profit decreased slightly. The alumina export profit was 73 yuan per ton, a week - on - week narrowing of 26 yuan per ton [9][33][36]. Inventory - As of August 7, the port inventory of alumina was 310,000 tons, a week - on - week increase of 60,000 tons [39]. Supply - Demand Balance - Since January 2025, the domestic alumina supply has returned to an oversupply situation. Considering new production capacity, it is expected to remain oversupplied in the long run. In June, it returned to an oversupply pattern [42]. Electrolytic Aluminum - Industry Fundamentals Supply - In July 2025, China's total electrolytic aluminum production capacity was 45.232 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 0.52% and a month - on - month increase of 25,000 tons; the in - production capacity was 44.229 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 1.68% and a month - on - month increase of 70,000 tons; the capacity utilization rate was 98.40, with a slight month - on - month increase [45]. - In June 2025, China's electrolytic aluminum output was 3.809 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 3.4%; the cumulative output this year was 22.379 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 3.3% [24][48]. - In July 2025, China's electrolytic aluminum operating rate was 97.78, a year - on - year increase of 1.14% and a month - on - month increase of 0.1%. It is at a historically high level, and there is limited upside potential based on the seasonal chart, indicating low supply elasticity [51]. - In June 2025, China's net electrolytic aluminum imports were 172,700 tons, a year - on - year increase of 58,600 tons and a month - on - month decrease of 18,300 tons; the cumulative net imports from January to June were 1.1635 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 27,700 tons. The import channel for electrolytic aluminum has gradually opened in recent years [56]. - As of August 7, 2025, the average price of scrap aluminum was 20,275 yuan per ton, a week - on - week increase of 320 yuan per ton. The scrap - to - primary aluminum price differential was 1,545 yuan per ton, a week - on - week narrowing of 90 yuan per ton [58]. - In June 2025, China's scrap aluminum imports were 156,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 11.45% and a month - on - month decrease of 40,000 tons; the cumulative imports from January to June were 1.012 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 6.88%. The monthly import volume is currently increasing year - on - year but has declined significantly month - on - month and is approaching the level of the same period in 2024. Future imports may still be affected by tariff policies [61]. Demand - In June 2025, China's aluminum product output was 5.8737 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 0.7% and a month - on - month increase of 111,700 tons; the cumulative output this year was 32.7679 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 1.3% [64]. - In June 2025, China's aluminum alloy output was 166,900 tons, a year - on - year increase of 18.8% and a month - on - month increase of 24,000 tons; the cumulative output this year was 909,700 tons, a year - on - year increase of 14.6% [67]. Cost - The domestic spot price of alumina was relatively stable, while the overseas spot price increased slightly in the short term [70]. - The latest price of pre - baked anodes was 5,482.5 yuan per ton, unchanged week - on - week [73]. - The latest price of dry - process aluminum fluoride was 9,670 yuan per ton, and the latest price of cryolite was 8,520 yuan per ton, both unchanged week - on - week [76]. Profit - The recent smelting cost of electrolytic aluminum was 16,899 yuan per ton, a week - on - week increase of 17 yuan per ton. Based on cost calculations and the spot aluminum price, the overall profit of electrolytic aluminum was 3,850 yuan per ton, a week - on - week increase of 122 yuan per ton [79]. - The current import loss of electrolytic aluminum was 1,533 yuan per ton, a significant week - on - week widening of 156 yuan per ton [82]. Inventory - As of August 7, the spot inventory of electrolytic aluminum in major consumption areas was 566,000 tons, a week - on - week increase of 21,000 tons, with no change during the week. The overall inventory increased week - on - week, but the rate of increase slowed significantly during the week, indicating off - season characteristics in the downstream [85]. - In July 2025, the spot inventory of electrolytic aluminum was 545,000 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 258,000 tons and a month - on - month increase of 75,000 tons. The absolute value is currently at a historically low level, returning to the level of the same period in 2023 [88]. - As of August 7, the domestic inventory of aluminum rods was 138,200 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 17,000 tons and a decrease of 56,000 tons during the week. The current inventory of aluminum rods remains relatively high compared to the same period in history [91]. Basis - The spot price of aluminum in East China ranged from 20,460 to 20,710 yuan per ton, a week - on - week increase of 140 yuan per ton. The spot price was quoted against the August contract. The spot price increased with the market, the spot discount widened, and the off - season deepened. The downstream's acceptance of high prices continued to decline, and overall trading was general [94].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not specified in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The fundamentals of the aluminum industry are neutral due to carbon - neutrality controlling capacity expansion, weak downstream demand, and a soft real estate market. The macro - short - term sentiment is volatile. The spot price shows a discount to the futures price, and inventory changes are neutral. The closing price is above the 20 - day moving average with an upward - running 20 - day moving average, and the主力 net position is long but decreasing. Overall, carbon - neutrality will bring long - term positive impacts on aluminum prices, but with multiple factors at play, aluminum prices are likely to fluctuate [2]. - The market is in a game between interest rate cuts and weak demand. Positive factors include carbon - neutrality controlling capacity expansion, geopolitical disruptions in Russia - Ukraine affecting Russian aluminum supply, and interest rate cuts. Negative factors include the unoptimistic global economy and high aluminum prices suppressing downstream consumption, as well as the cancellation of export tax rebates for aluminum products [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Content Aluminum Fundamentals - The supply side is affected by carbon - neutrality controlling capacity expansion. The demand side is not strong due to the soft real estate market, and the macro - short - term sentiment is changeable. The overall assessment of fundamentals is neutral [2]. Price and Basis - The spot price is 20650, with a basis of - 35, showing a discount to the futures price, and the assessment is neutral [2]. Inventory - The SHFE aluminum inventory decreased by 3913 tons to 113614 tons compared to last week. Other inventory data shows that the Shanghai inventory was 70798 tons (an increase of 699 tons), the LME inventory was 74750 tons (a decrease of 425 tons), and the SHFE inventory (daily) was 136300 tons (an increase of 29728 tons) [2][4]. Market Trends - The closing price is above the 20 - day moving average, and the 20 - day moving average is running upward, indicating a bullish trend. The主力 net position is long, but the long position is decreasing, also showing a bullish tendency [2]. Supply - Demand Balance - The Chinese annual supply - demand balance table for aluminum (in 10,000 tons) shows that from 2018 - 2024, there were periods of supply shortages and a small surplus in 2024. For example, in 2018, the supply - demand balance was - 47.61; in 2020, it was 1.3; in 2024, it was 15 [25].

Core Viewpoint - The aluminum market is experiencing fluctuations influenced by supply constraints, seasonal demand, and macroeconomic factors, with a focus on price movements and inventory levels. Group 1: Market Performance - As of August 8, 2025, the main contract for Shanghai aluminum futures closed at 20,685 yuan/ton, with a weekly increase of 1.03% [1] - The weekly trading range was between 20,460 yuan/ton and 20,830 yuan/ton, with a reduction in open interest by 11,717 contracts compared to the previous week [1] Group 2: Supply and Inventory - In the fifth week of July 2025, Brazil exported a total of 611,900 tons of bauxite and alumina, a 37.77% increase from 444,100 tons in August of the previous year [2] - As of August 7, the inventory of electrolytic aluminum in the Shanghai Free Trade Zone was 91,300 tons, while the inventory in Guangdong was 20,000 tons, totaling 111,300 tons, which is an increase of 3,800 tons from the previous week [2] Group 3: Industry Insights - According to Jianxin Futures, the supply of bauxite is tightening due to the rainy season in Guinea, but high port inventories and the resumption of production at some mines may limit the extent of the shortage [3] - The domestic electrolytic aluminum production capacity remains high, with seasonal demand still weak, leading to an increase in inventory [3] - Zhonghui Futures reported that the fully loaded cost of China's electrolytic aluminum industry in July was 16,261 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1.7% month-on-month, with the latest inventory of aluminum ingots at 564,000 tons, up by 20,000 tons from the previous week [3]

Group 1: Report Investment Rating - There is no information provided regarding the industry investment rating in the report. Group 2: Core Viewpoints - The implementation of supply - side contraction policies for alumina still needs observation. Given the low proportion of backward capacity and new production coming online this year, the over - capacity situation of alumina may be difficult to change. With the ebb of short - term commodity buying sentiment and the alleviation of the shortage of circulating spot, it is recommended to take short positions on rallies based on market sentiment. The reference operating range for the domestic main contract AO2509 is 3000 - 3400 yuan/ton, and attention should be paid to warrant registration, supply - side policies, and Guinea's ore policies [13]. Group 3: Summary by Directory 1. Monthly Assessment - **Futures Price**: As of August 8, the alumina index had risen 7.1% since June 30 to 3182 yuan/ton. In mid - and early July, the expectation of supply - side contraction policies, a strong commodity buying atmosphere, and low warrant registration volumes drove the futures price up. As sentiment faded and the spot market loosened, the price dropped due to the oversupply situation [12][23]. - **Spot Price**: In July, the "anti - involution" policy expectation led to a sharp increase in alumina spot prices. As of August 8, 2025, the spot prices in Guangxi, Guizhou, Henan, Shandong, Shanxi, and Xinjiang were 3325 yuan/ton, 3320 yuan/ton, 3225 yuan/ton, 3215 yuan/ton, 3250 yuan/ton, and 3520 yuan/ton respectively, up 155 yuan/ton, 145 yuan/ton, 135 yuan/ton, 125 yuan/ton, 165 yuan/ton, and 180 yuan/ton from early July [12][20]. - **Inventory**: As of August 8, the total social inventory of alumina had increased by 28.5 tons to 414.4 million tons. The inventory in electrolytic aluminum plants, alumina plants, in - transit inventory, and port inventory had increased by 11.8 tons, 3 tons, 10.5 tons, and 3.2 tons respectively [12][75]. - **Comprehensive Analysis**: The supply - side contraction policy implementation needs further observation. The over - capacity pattern of alumina may persist. With the ebb of short - term buying sentiment and the alleviation of spot shortages, short positions on rallies are recommended. The reference range for the domestic main contract AO2509 is 3000 - 3400 yuan/ton [13]. 2. Futures and Spot End - **Futures Price**: As of August 8, the alumina index rose 7.1% since June 30 to 3182 yuan/ton. The early - July price increase was driven by policy expectations and low warrant registration, while the subsequent decline was due to the return to the fundamental logic of oversupply [23]. - **Basis**: The basis decreased significantly this month and then gradually recovered. As of August 8, the Shandong spot price was at a premium of 45 yuan/ton over the alumina main contract price [23]. - **Monthly Spread**: The spread between the first - and third - month contracts first rose and then fell. As of August 8, it was - 12 yuan/ton [23]. 3. Raw Material End - **Bauxite Price**: Domestic bauxite prices remained flat this month. As of August 8, the CIF price of Guinea bauxite was 74 US dollars/ton, and that of Australian bauxite was 69 US dollars/ton. Due to the impact of the rainy season and previous bans on Guinea's shipments, the arrival volume of imported ores is expected to decline, and ore prices are expected to be supported in the short term [29]. - **Bauxite Production and Import**: In June 2025, China's bauxite production was 519 tons, a year - on - year increase of 4.1% and a month - on - month decrease of 3.2%. The cumulative production in the first six months was 3039 tons, a year - on - year increase of 4.29%. In June, bauxite imports were 1812 tons, a year - on - year increase of 35.86% and a month - on - month increase of 3.44%. The cumulative imports in the first six months were 10340 tons, a year - on - year increase of 33.68% [31][33]. - **Guinea Bauxite Import**: In June 2025, China imported 1332 tons of bauxite from Guinea, a year - on - year increase of 40.18% and a month - on - month increase of 0.76%. The cumulative imports in the first six months were 7967 tons, a year - on - year increase of 41.49%. Recent low shipments from Guinea may lead to a decline in imports after June, but the annual supply remains in surplus [36]. - **Bauxite Supply - Demand Balance**: Based on shipping schedules and seasonal shipments from Guinea, the bauxite supply is expected to tighten in July and experience significant inventory reduction in September and October. If the AXIS mining area does not resume production this year, China's bauxite import growth is expected to decline from 4000 tons to 2000 tons. However, due to the large surplus in the first five months and sufficient inventories in most alumina plants, the basic production of alumina enterprises is not expected to be significantly affected [37]. - **Bauxite Inventory**: As of August 1, 2025, the global bauxite floating inventory reached a new low of 1455 tons. China's bauxite port inventory was 2819 tons, and the inventory accumulation trend slowed down. With the expected decline in ore arrivals, port inventories are expected to decrease [40]. 4. Supply End - **Alumina Production**: In June 2025, alumina production was 733 tons, a year - on - year increase of 8.34% and a month - on - month increase of 3.14%. The cumulative production in the first six months was 4349 tons, a year - on - year increase of 9.01% [47]. - **Operating Capacity**: In June 2025, the operating capacity of alumina was 9000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 9.36% and a month - on - month increase of 6.38%. The recovery of smelting profits led to the resumption of previously shut - down capacity [50]. - **New Production Capacity**: In 2025, the total new alumina production capacity is expected to be 1430 tons. Some projects have been put into production and are gradually releasing output, while the fourth - quarter new production has uncertainties [51][52]. - **Smelting Profit**: Based on the August 8 spot price, the production profit in Guangxi can reach 570 yuan/ton. In Shandong, the profit using Australian and Guinea ores is 395 yuan/ton and 440 yuan/ton respectively. The profit in Shanxi and Henan using Guinea ore is 185 yuan/ton and 235 yuan/ton respectively [54]. 5. Import and Export - **Alumina Import and Export Data**: In June 2025, alumina had a net export of 6.97 tons, maintaining a net export status. The import volume increased from 6.75 tons in the previous month to 10.13 tons, and the export volume decreased from 20.78 tons to 17.1 tons. The cumulative net export in the first six months was 107.5 tons. A small net export is expected to become the norm [58]. - **Import Window**: As of August 8, the FOB price of Australian alumina rose 13 US dollars/ton to 374 US dollars/ton, and the import loss was - 72 yuan/ton. The import window remained closed [61]. 6. Demand End - **Electrolytic Aluminum Production**: In July 2025, China's electrolytic aluminum production was 377.8 tons, a year - on - year increase of 2.49% and a month - on - month increase of 3.44%. The cumulative production in the first seven months was 2560 tons, a year - on - year increase of 2.73% [66]. - **Electrolytic Aluminum Operating Capacity and Utilization Rate**: In July 2025, the operating capacity of electrolytic aluminum was 4419 tons, an increase of 16 tons from the previous month. The operating rate increased by 0.55% month - on - month to 97.24% [69]. 7. Inventory - **Alumina Social Inventory**: As of August 8, the total social inventory of alumina increased by 28.5 tons to 414.4 million tons. The inventory in electrolytic aluminum plants, alumina plants, in - transit inventory, and port inventory increased by 11.8 tons, 3 tons, 10.5 tons, and 3.2 tons respectively [75]. - **Warehouse Receipt and Delivery Inventory**: As of August 8, 2025, the alumina warehouse receipts decreased by 0.41 tons to 2.62 tons compared to early July, and the delivery inventory at the Shanghai Futures Exchange increased by 1.98 tons to 8.5 tons. As the spot market loosens, the registration volume of warehouse receipts is expected to increase [77].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the document 2. Core Views of the Report - **Alumina**: The raw material end is affected by the rainy season in Guinea and mining area disturbances, with a potential decrease in bauxite shipments and rising prices. Domestic port inventories may decrease. Supply has a slight increase due to policy - related price increases and profit repair for smelters. Demand also shows a small increase as electrolytic aluminum production slightly rises. Overall, the fundamentals are in a stage of slightly increasing supply and demand, with cost support and improved supply expectations [4]. - **Electrolytic Aluminum**: The raw material cost is high with firm alumina prices and high - oscillating aluminum prices, resulting in good smelter profits and positive production willingness. Supply has a small increase due to previous technical renovation and capacity replacement projects, but production is approaching the industry ceiling. Demand is weak during the off - season, and high aluminum prices suppress downstream consumption. Short - term inventory may accumulate slightly, and the proportion of molten aluminum may decline [4]. - **Cast Aluminum**: High raw material costs squeeze smelter profits, and production may decrease due to cost - profit issues and the off - season. Demand is weak during the off - season, with cautious purchasing by consumers. Inventory is slightly accumulating [6]. - **Strategy Suggestions**: Trade the main contract of Shanghai aluminum lightly with a weak - oscillating view, and trade the main contract of alumina lightly by going long at low prices. Trade the main contract of cast aluminum lightly with an oscillating view. Pay attention to operation rhythm and risk control [4][6]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Weekly Key Points Summary - **Market Review**: Shanghai aluminum opened low and rebounded, with a weekly increase of 0.85% to 20,685 yuan/ton. Alumina oscillated, with a weekly increase of 0.25% to 3,170 yuan/ton. Cast aluminum's main contract oscillated strongly, with a weekly increase of 0.95% to 20,110 yuan/ton [4][6]. - **Market Outlook and Strategy**: See the core views above [4][6]. 3.2 Futures and Spot Market - **Price Movements**: As of August 8, 2025, Shanghai aluminum's closing price was 20,695 yuan/ton, up 0.56% from August 1; LME aluminum's closing price was 2,610.5 dollars/ton, up 1.87% from August 1. The alumina futures price was 3,161 yuan/ton, down 2.23% from August 1. The cast aluminum alloy's main contract closing price was 20,110 yuan/ton, up 0.95% from August 1 [9][13]. - **Ratio and Spread**: As of August 8, 2025, the Shanghai - LME ratio of electrolytic aluminum was 7.95, up 0.1 from August 1. The aluminum - zinc futures spread was 1,830 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan/ton from August 1; the copper - aluminum futures spread was 57,805 yuan/ton, down 85 yuan/ton from August 1 [10][22]. - **Inventory and Position**: As of August 8, 2025, Shanghai aluminum's position was 587,075 lots, up 1.6% from August 1; the net position of the top 20 was 4,602 lots, down 6,713 lots from August 1 [16]. - **Spot Market**: As of August 8, 2025, the average alumina price in Henan, Shanxi, and Guiyang was 3,240 yuan/ton, unchanged from August 1. The national average price of cast aluminum alloy (ADC12) was 20,250 yuan/ton, up 1.25% from August 1. The A00 aluminum ingot's spot price was 20,630 yuan/ton, up 0.68% from August 1, with a spot discount of 50 yuan/ton, down 30 yuan/ton from last week [25][31]. 3.3 Industry Situation - **Inventory**: As of August 7, 2025, LME electrolytic aluminum inventory was 469,500 tons, up 1.84% from July 31; Shanghai Futures Exchange's electrolytic aluminum inventory was 113,614 tons, down 3.33% from last week; domestic electrolytic aluminum social inventory was 506,000 tons, up 3.9% from July 31 [36]. - **Raw Materials**: As of the latest data, the inventory of bauxite in nine domestic ports was 27.36 million tons, down 40,000 tons month - on - month. In June 2025, the monthly import of bauxite was 18.1163 million tons, up 3.45% month - on - month and 36.21% year - on - year. From January to June, the cumulative import was 103.2494 million tons, up 33.61% year - on - year. The price of scrap aluminum in Shandong increased by 100 yuan/ton week - on - week. In June 2025, the import of aluminum waste and scrap was 155,616.27 tons, up 11.4% year - on - year; the export was 64.33 tons, down 38.7% year - on - year [39][45]. - **Production and Trade**: In June 2025, alumina production was 7.7493 million tons, up 7.8% year - on - year; from January to June, the cumulative production was 45.151 million tons, up 9.3% year - on - year. The import was 101,300 tons, up 50.03% month - on - month and 168.44% year - on - year; the export was 170,000 tons, down 19.05% month - on - month and up 6.25% year - on - year. In June 2025, the electrolytic aluminum import was 192,300 tons, up 58.78% year - on - year; from January to June, the cumulative import was 1.2493 million tons, up 2.46% year - on - year; the export was 19,600 tons, and from January to June, the cumulative export was 85,900 tons. In June 2025, electrolytic aluminum production was 3.809 million tons, up 3.4% year - on - year; from January to June, the cumulative output was 22.379 million tons, up 3.3% year - on - year. In June 2025, the output of aluminum products was 5.8737 million tons, up 0.7% year - on - year; from January to June, the cumulative output was 32.7679 million tons, up 1.3% year - on - year. The output of cast aluminum alloy in June 2025 was 618,900 tons, up 5.49% year - on - year. The output of aluminum alloy in June 2025 was 1.669 million tons, up 18.8% year - on - year; from January to June, the cumulative output was 9.097 million tons [48][51][55][59][62][65]. - **Downstream Markets**: In June 2025, the real - estate development climate index was 93.6, down 0.11 from last month and up 1.61 from the same period last year. From January to June 2024, the new housing construction area was 303.6432 million square meters, down 20.14% year - on - year; the housing completion area was 225.6661 million square meters, down 22.87% year - on - year. From January to June 2024, infrastructure investment increased by 8.9% year - on - year. In June 2025, China's automobile sales were 2,904,482, up 13.83% year - on - year; production was 2,794,105, up 11.43% year - on - year [68][71]. 3.4 Option Market Analysis - Given the expected slight weak - oscillating trend of aluminum prices in the future, a double - selling strategy can be considered to short volatility [75].

天山铝业（SZ 002532，收盘价：9.68元）8月8日晚间发布公告称，截至本公告日，石河子市锦隆能源 产业链有限公司累计质押股数为3.7亿股，合计占其所持股份比例为40.53%。石河子市锦汇能源投资有 限公司累计质押股数约为1.73亿股，合计占其所持股份比例为50%。曾超懿累计质押股数约为2.15亿 股，合计占其所持股份比例为54.64%。曾超林累计质押股数约为1.37亿股，合计占其所持股份比例为 45.42%。 2024年1至12月份，天山铝业的营业收入构成为：铝行业占比100.0%。 （文章来源：每日经济新闻） ...

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