宏观日报 | 2025-05-09 关注基建行业相关投资项目开展 中观事件总览 生产行业：关注运输、基建投资项目推进。 1）国家发改委副主任郑备在新闻发布会上表示，民企促进法全文贯 穿了平等对待、公平竞争、同等保护、共同发展的原则，国家发展改革委将重点从破壁垒、拓空间、优服务等方 面推动落实。今年还将在交通运输、能源、水利、新型基础设施、城市基础设施等重点领域，推出总投资规模约3 万亿元的优质项目。 服务行业：云服务业务稳步增长。 1）工信部数据显示，今年一季度，我国软件和信息技术服务业稳健增长，完 成业务收入31479亿元，同比增长10.6%。分领域看，信息技术服务收入保持两位数增长，达到20820亿元，占全行 业收入近七成。其中，云计算、大数据服务共实现收入3540亿元，同比增长11.1%。一季度软件业务利润总额也保 持了两位数增长，达到11.6%。一季度软件业务出口增速由负转正，出口达到131亿美元，同比增长2.4%。 数据来源：央视新闻，iFind，华泰期货研究院 行业总览 上游：1）能源：国际油价受关税影响持续回落。2）有色：锌、铝、铅受关税影响价格震荡。3）建材：水泥、建 材价格持续回落。4）农业 ...

宏观日报 | 2025-05-09 关注基建行业相关投资项目开展 中观事件总览 生产行业：关注运输、基建投资项目推进。 1）国家发改委副主任郑备在新闻发布会上表示，民企促进法全文贯 穿了平等对待、公平竞争、同等保护、共同发展的原则，国家发展改革委将重点从破壁垒、拓空间、优服务等方 面推动落实。今年还将在交通运输、能源、水利、新型基础设施、城市基础设施等重点领域，推出总投资规模约3 万亿元的优质项目。 服务行业：云服务业务稳步增长。 1）工信部数据显示，今年一季度，我国软件和信息技术服务业稳健增长，完 成业务收入31479亿元，同比增长10.6%。分领域看，信息技术服务收入保持两位数增长，达到20820亿元，占全行 业收入近七成。其中，云计算、大数据服务共实现收入3540亿元，同比增长11.1%。一季度软件业务利润总额也保 持了两位数增长，达到11.6%。一季度软件业务出口增速由负转正，出口达到131亿美元，同比增长2.4%。 数据来源：央视新闻，iFind，华泰期货研究院 行业总览 2025年期货市场研究报告 第1页 请仔细阅读本报告最后一页的免责声明 上游：1）能源：国际油价受关税影响持续回落。2）有色：锌 ...

Group 1 - The analysis of Amazon stock on March 13 suggested that the stock was oversold and recommended a buy rating [1] - The core investment style of the company focuses on providing actionable and clear ideas derived from independent research [1] - The service offers in-depth articles on investment opportunities at least once a week [1] Group 2 - The company claims to have helped its members outperform the S&P 500 while avoiding significant losses during market volatility [2] - A trial membership is available to assess the effectiveness of the company's investment methods [2]

Core Viewpoint - The case of Zitian Technology highlights the deep-seated contradictions in corporate governance and regulatory arbitrage within the capital market, serving as a cautionary tale of systemic financial fraud and extreme resistance to regulation [1] Group 1: Financial Fraud and Regulatory Resistance - The crisis of Zitian Technology traces back to the change of actual controller in 2016, leading to aggressive capital operations that created a facade of prosperity, with accounts receivable reaching 2.194 billion yuan by the end of 2022, exceeding annual revenue [2] - Systematic fabrication of transactions was revealed, including the forgery of 812 million yuan in server prepayments in 2022, which later turned into unsubstantiated inventory, and the recognition of revenue from cloud services that had not commenced operations [2] Group 2: Regulatory Confrontation and Consequences - The company faced comprehensive resistance during the on-site inspection initiated by the Fujian Securities Regulatory Bureau in April 2024, including a vacant registered address and refusal to provide financial materials, leading to two investigations by the CSRC in September and October 2024 [3] - As of May 6, 2025, the company's stock has been suspended, with a risk of delisting if the annual report is not disclosed within two months, following a net outflow of 140 million yuan in principal funds in the five trading days before suspension [4] Group 3: Punitive Measures and Regulatory Changes - The incident set multiple regulatory records, with the audit partner fined 1 million yuan and banned from the market for six years, while the actual controller and executives faced fines totaling 800,000 yuan and a ten-year market ban [5] - This combination of penalties signifies a shift in regulatory focus from mere punishment to disrupting the capacity for illegal activities, particularly targeting key links in the financial fraud ecosystem [5] Group 4: Transformation and Governance Deficiencies - Zitian Technology's aggressive transformation from traditional forging machinery to internet advertising and cloud services is characterized as "pseudo-innovation," lacking substantial business support, leading to significant goodwill impairment of 569 million yuan in 2023 [6] - The crisis of Zitian Technology transcends individual cases, becoming a litmus test for the market clearing mechanism under the registration system, with potential delisting marking a precedent for forced delisting due to continuous regulatory resistance and systemic financial fraud [6]

Group 1: Cloud Industry Insights - The four major North American cloud providers reported a total capital expenditure (capex) of $77.3 billion, representing a year-on-year increase of 62% [1] - Companies like Google, Amazon, and Microsoft maintained their optimistic capex guidance for 2025, while Meta raised its full-year capex guidance from $60 billion-$65 billion to $64 billion-$72 billion, alleviating market concerns [1] - The report suggests focusing on stocks with strong performance growth and low valuations for Q1 2024 and 2025, quality dividend assets in telecom operators, and sectors like military communication and submarine cables that may see performance and valuation recovery [1] Group 2: Consumer Sector Outlook - The consumer sector is experiencing a recovery, with steady growth in holiday consumption across most provinces and cities, driven by trade-in programs and emotional value consumption [2] - Increased travel willingness and diversified cultural tourism consumption are noted, alongside a boost in inbound tourism due to tax refund policies [2] - The report remains optimistic about the gradual improvement of the consumer sector's fundamentals and the revaluation of leading companies by 2025, supported by consumption stimulus policies [2] Group 3: Aviation Industry Forecast - The aviation industry is expected to see a rise in both volume and price, with increased international flight schedules and domestic demand being stimulated by the "924" policy [3] - The demand for civil aviation travel is anticipated to be further released in 2025, supported by an improved supply-demand balance and favorable oil and exchange rates [3] - The market is expected to open up further for ticket pricing, leading to enhanced profitability for airlines [3]

如果这个五一假期你刚好有去日本的旅行计划，那应该可以使用Tabelog的微信小程序，获得更丝滑的餐厅预订体验。 微信搜索「Tabelog」就能找到并进入Tabelog小程序，通过关键词、用餐需求和附近的餐厅来检索和挑选想要预定的餐厅，然后进入餐厅界面选择用餐时 间和人数，填写预订人信息，支付1200日元押金，完成预约。整个过程中支持填写中国手机号和使用微信支付押金。 相比此前在Tabelog网站上的预订过程，Tabelog小程序的体验要更符合中国消费者的使用习惯。「一方面是因为我们使用网页方式，而中国已进入移动互 联网时代；另一方面，我们之前仅支持信用卡支付，与中国用户习惯不符。」Tabelog事业部中国部部长向井雪竹表示。 中国的场景化解决方案跟着中国消费者，在已经布局海外的云厂商支持下，有了更多出海机会。 作者 | 李威（北京） 配图 Tabelog想要用更好的预订体验来抓住更多中国消费者。日本国家旅游局公布的数据显示，2024年到访日本中国游客数量超过1570万人，是赴日旅游人数 最多的国家。日本政府希望，到2030年入境游客餐饮消费总额能提高到2023年的3倍。而占比最多的中国游客是日本餐饮届不能忽视 ...

尽管美国已暂时免除对中国智能手机等进口产品征收125%"对等关税"，但苹果仍受现行的20%中国 进口产品关税的影响。 库克还提到，根据一项名为"232条款调查"的程序，半导体等科技产品可能会被征收额外关税。 在这一背景下，库克指出，苹果公司已经从美国十几个州采购了190亿颗芯片，但他表示，苹果在美 国以外市场销售的产品中"绝大部分"仍然来自中国。 库克强调，到目前为止，美国关税尚未对苹果的销售产生影响。展望未来，库克表示"充满信心"。他 说道："我们的运营团队在优化供应链和库存方面做得非常出色。" 2025.05. 02 本文字数：1073，阅读时长大约2分钟 作者 | 第一财经 钱童心 美国当地时间5月1日，苹果公司发布财报，首次透露了美国关税对该公司的业绩影响。库克在当天 晚间与分析师的电话会议上表示："当前的全球关税税率如果在本季度剩余的时间内保持不变，不增 加新的关税，这种情况下，我们预计将导致苹果在截至6月底的季度中，成本增加9亿美元。" 库克表示，不确定的关税环境使得公司"很难预测"6月之后关税措施将如何影响苹果的成本。这导致 了投资者的担忧。苹果股价在周四盘后交易中下跌了超过4%。 今年以来，该 ...

当地时间5月1日，美股三大指数在"八连涨"的狂欢中迎来一场"冰火两重天"的戏剧性行情。道琼斯工业 指数、标普500指数双双续写连涨纪录，纳指更是大涨1.52%，科技股狂潮一度将微软总市值推至全球 第一宝座。然而，盘后苹果股价暴跌近4%、国际油价上演"3分钟跳水3%再拉升1%"的惊魂过山车、特 朗普突然宣布对伊朗石油买家"全面封杀"，三大事件交织下，美股的"八连涨神话"正面临一场前所未有 的信任危机。 美股八连涨背后的"脆弱平衡"：经济数据与地缘政治的双重绞杀 5月1日的美股交易日，表面看是一场"皆大欢喜"的狂欢。道指收涨0.21%至40752.96点，标普500指数涨 0.63%至5604.14点，两者均创下2024年以来的最长连涨纪录；纳指则在科技股带领下暴涨1.52%，万得 美国科技七巨头指数单日飙升2.83%，微软盘中一度涨逾10%，总市值短暂超越苹果，成为全球"市值 王"。然而，这场狂欢的根基却脆弱不堪——国际油价单日波动超4%、美国制造业PMI数据意外下滑、 前财长耶伦与萨默斯接连发出"衰退警告"，无一不在暗示：美股的"连涨神话"不过是风暴前的宁静。 支撑美股上涨的直接动力，是国际贸易局势的短暂缓和 ...

Core Insights - The company reported quarterly revenue of $155.7 billion, a 9% year-over-year increase, exceeding Visible Alpha analysts' expectations [3] - Net profit for the first quarter was $17.1 billion, or $1.59 per share, compared to $10.4 billion, or $0.98 per share in the same period last year, surpassing Wall Street forecasts [3] - CEO Andy Jassy noted an increase in purchasing in certain categories, suggesting consumers may be stockpiling ahead of potential tariff impacts [3] Revenue Breakdown - Online store sales grew by 6% to $57.41 billion, exceeding expectations [3] - Amazon Web Services (AWS) revenue increased by 17% to $29.27 billion, slightly below the forecast of $29.38 billion [3] Future Outlook - The company forecasts second-quarter revenue between $159 billion and $164 billion, roughly in line with Wall Street's expectation of $161.27 billion [3] - However, the projected operating income of $13 billion to $17.5 billion is significantly lower than analyst expectations [3] Pricing Strategy - CEO Jassy emphasized the importance of maintaining low prices amid uncertain tariff policies, stating that the company is focused on this aspect [4] - The company has implemented measures to keep prices low, including advance inventory purchases and supply chain diversification [4] Stock Performance - The company's stock fell approximately 3% in after-hours trading, with a cumulative decline of 13% for the year as of Thursday's close [4]

Core Viewpoint - 2024 presents both challenges and opportunities for the company, with a focus on overcoming performance difficulties through strategic business development in gaming, cloud services, digital twin technology, and cultural tourism [1][10]. Group 1: Financial Performance - The company reported total revenue of 227 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 12.32%, and a net loss attributable to shareholders of 52.74 million yuan, although this represents a year-on-year reduction in losses by 4.19% [1]. - The non-recurring net profit loss was 52.55 million yuan, showing a year-on-year reduction in losses of 22.95% [1]. Group 2: Industry Trends - The gaming industry in China is projected to reach a market size of 325.78 billion yuan in 2024, with a year-on-year growth of 7.53%, driven by increasing player demands for quality and innovative gameplay [2]. - The cloud services sector is experiencing rapid growth, with the smart computing power scale expected to reach 1,037.3 EFLOPS by 2025, a 43% increase from 2024, and the market size projected to reach 25.9 billion USD, a year-on-year growth of 36.2% [2]. - The digital twin industry is gaining momentum due to government support, with applications in smart cities and industrial internet becoming more prevalent [3]. Group 3: Business Segments - In the gaming sector, the company is revitalizing classic games and exploring diverse genres, with successful updates to titles like "Anti-Japanese War" and the launch of new mobile games contributing positively to revenue [4]. - The cloud services business is expanding through the utilization of data centers and the development of AI and cloud computing services, despite facing competitive pressures that have impacted profit margins [5][6]. - The digital twin and cultural tourism sectors are highlighted by the success of the "Dragon Rising Nine Continents" project, which has turned profitable and is enhancing visitor experiences through digital technology [8]. Group 4: Future Outlook - The company anticipates gradual performance improvement through the synergistic development of its three main business segments, with expectations of increased player engagement and revenue in gaming, growth in cloud service profitability, and expanded market coverage in cultural tourism [9][10].