Group 1: Report Industry Investment Ratings - There is no explicit overall industry investment rating provided in the report. However, investment suggestions are given for different sectors, including "long - position reduction", "short - selling opportunities", "interval trading", etc. [1] Group 2: Core Views of the Report - The market shows complex trends due to various factors such as economic data, policy changes, and supply - demand relationships across different commodity sectors. The overall market sentiment is affected by factors like the US consumer confidence index, inflation expectations, and geopolitical events. [1] Group 3: Summaries by Related Catalogs Macro - Financial - For stock index futures, it is recommended to consider reducing long positions and be vigilant about further adjustment risks [1]. - The bond futures are supported by asset shortage and weak economy in the long - term, but the short - term rise is suppressed by the central bank's interest - rate risk reminder [1]. - Gold prices may enter a consolidation phase in the short - term, while the long - term upward logic remains unchanged. Silver prices may be more resilient than gold in the short - term due to potential tariff impacts [1]. Non - Ferrous Metals - Copper prices are expected to be weak in the short - term due to lower downstream demand and other factors [1]. - Aluminum prices will remain strong in the short - term supported by low inventory and alumina price rebounds. Alumina prices continue to rise due to supply disruptions [1]. - Zinc fundamentals are weak, and it is recommended to look for short - selling opportunities [1]. - Nickel prices will oscillate in the short - term and face long - term oversupply pressure. Short - term interval trading is suggested [1]. - Stainless steel futures will oscillate in the short - term with long - term supply pressure. Interval trading is recommended [1]. - Tin prices have strong fundamental support before the复产 of Wa State [1]. Chemicals - Silicon presents a situation of strong supply, weak demand, and low - valuation, with no improvement in demand and high inventory pressure [1]. - Lithium carbonate has no further supply contraction, increasing inventory, and downstream rigid - demand purchasing [1]. - For methanol, the short - term spot market will trade in a range, and the long - term market may turn from strong to weak and oscillate [1]. - PVC has weak fundamentals but is boosted by macro - factors, and its price will oscillate [1]. - LPG prices are expected to decline in the short - term due to tariff easing and demand off - season [1]. Black Metals - Rebar is in a window of switching from peak to off - season, with cost loosening and a supply - demand surplus, lacking upward momentum [1]. - Iron ore prices will oscillate, and manganese ore prices are expected to decline due to oversupply [1]. - Coke and coking coal are in a relatively oversupplied situation, and it is recommended to take advantage of price rebounds for hedging [1]. Agricultural Products - Brazilian sugar production in the 2025/26 season is expected to reach a record high, but it may be affected by crude oil prices [1]. - Grains are expected to oscillate, and a strategy of buying on dips is recommended considering the tight annual supply - demand situation [1]. - Soybean prices are expected to oscillate due to lack of speculation and market pressure [1]. - Cotton prices are expected to oscillate weakly as the domestic cotton - spinning industry enters the off - season [1]. - Pulp prices will oscillate due to lack of upward momentum after the tariff - related boost [1]. - Livestock prices will oscillate as the pig inventory recovers and the market is in a state of abundant supply expectation [1]. Energy - Crude oil and fuel oil prices are affected by the progress of the Iran nuclear deal and the end of the Sino - US trade negotiation drive [1]. - Asphalt prices will oscillate as cost drags, inventory returns to normal, and demand slowly recovers [1]. - Natural rubber prices are affected by rainfall, cost support, and the end of the trade negotiation drive [1].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - No industry investment ratings are provided in the reports. 2. Core Views Steel Industry - The steel industry presents a structure of high production, low inventory, weak cost support, and expected demand recovery. It is about to face the seasonal off - season and the possibility of weakening manufacturing demand (exports). The price is expected to oscillate at a low level, and it is recommended to wait and see for now [1]. Iron Ore Industry - This week, the daily average iron ore production has peaked and declined, while the port clearance volume has slightly increased. It is expected that the iron ore production will remain at a high level in the short term. The iron ore is slightly de - stocked under high iron ore production, and the steel mill inventory remains low. The terminal demand of finished products determines the sustainability of high - level iron ore production. It is expected that the iron ore will oscillate in the short term [4]. Silicon and Manganese Industry - For silicon iron, the daily production has declined, the supply pressure has been gradually relieved, and the factory inventory has gradually decreased, but the overall inventory is still at a medium - high level. For silicon manganese, the production is accelerating to decline, the supply and demand contradiction is limited, and the price is expected to oscillate, stabilize, and rebound [5]. Coke and Coking Coal Industry - The coke and coking coal futures showed a weak oscillating trend last week. The supply - demand pattern is still loose in the short term. It is recommended to short the 2509 contracts of coke and coking coal at high prices and continue to hold the arbitrage strategy of long hot - rolled coils and short coke/coking coal [6]. 3. Summary by Directory Steel Industry - **Prices and Spreads**: The prices of most steel products decreased. For example, the spot price of rebar in East China decreased by 30 yuan/ton, and the 10 - contract price decreased by 36 yuan/ton. The cost of some steel products decreased, and the profit of most steel products increased [1]. - **Production**: The daily average iron ore production remained unchanged at 245.6 tons, the production of five major steel products decreased by 5.8 tons (- 0.7%), the rebar production increased by 3.0 tons (1.3%), and the hot - rolled coil production decreased by 8.4 tons (- 2.6%) [1]. - **Inventory**: The inventory of five major steel products decreased by 45.4 tons (- 3.1%), the rebar inventory decreased by 33.8 tons (- 5.2%), and the hot - rolled coil inventory decreased by 17.6 tons (- 4.8%) [1]. - **Demand**: The daily average construction material trading volume decreased by 0.3 tons (- 3.1%), the apparent demand for five major steel products increased by 68.6 tons (8.1%), the apparent demand for rebar increased by 46.4 tons (21.7%), and the apparent demand for hot - rolled coils increased by 20.0 tons (6.5%) [1]. Iron Ore Industry - **Prices and Spreads**: The prices of most iron ore varieties decreased. For example, the warehouse - receipt cost of PB powder decreased by 8.8 yuan/ton (- 1.1%), and the spot price of PB powder at Rizhao Port decreased by 8.0 yuan/ton (- 1.0%). The basis of some varieties increased significantly [4]. - **Supply**: The 45 - port arrival volume decreased by 95.1 tons (- 3.9%), and the global shipment volume decreased by 21.5 tons (- 0.7%) [4]. - **Demand**: The daily average iron ore production of 247 steel mills decreased by 0.9 tons (- 0.4%), and the 45 - port daily average port clearance volume increased by 8.7 tons (2.8%) [4]. - **Inventory**: The 45 - port inventory decreased by 174.8 tons (- 1.2%), and the inventory of imported iron ore in 247 steel mills increased by 2.2 tons (0.0%) [4]. Silicon and Manganese Industry - **Prices and Spreads**: The prices of silicon iron and silicon manganese increased slightly. The closing price of the silicon iron main contract increased by 26.0 yuan/ton (0.5%), and the closing price of the silicon manganese main contract increased by 12.0 yuan/ton (0.2%) [5]. - **Cost and Profit**: The production cost of some regions remained stable, and the production profit of some regions increased or remained unchanged [5]. - **Supply**: The production of silicon iron decreased by 0.9 tons (- 5.4%), and the production of silicon manganese decreased by 0.9 tons (- 5.4%). The start - up rates of both decreased [5]. - **Demand**: The demand for silicon iron and silicon manganese remained relatively stable [5]. - **Inventory**: The inventory of 60 sample silicon iron enterprises decreased by 1.0 tons (- 11.8%), and the inventory of 63 sample silicon manganese enterprises increased by 2.5 tons (13.9%) [5]. Coke and Coking Coal Industry - **Prices and Spreads**: The prices of coke and coking coal decreased. For example, the price of first - class wet - quenched coke in Shanxi decreased by 50 yuan/ton (- 3.84%), and the price of coking coal (Shanxi warehouse - receipt) decreased by 20 yuan/ton (- 1.9%) [6]. - **Supply**: The coke production increased slightly, and the coking coal production remained at a relatively high level. The domestic coal mines continued to resume production, and the Mongolian customs clearance volume increased from a low level [6]. - **Demand**: The iron ore production showed signs of peaking and declining, and the downstream users' replenishment was mainly on - demand [6]. - **Inventory**: The coke inventory in coking plants continued to decline, the port inventory decreased slightly, and the steel mill inventory was low. The coking coal inventory in mines continued to accumulate, and the downstream inventory was at a low level [6].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - The report does not explicitly provide overall industry - wide investment ratings. However, it gives individual commodity trend intensities, which can be used as a reference for investment judgment. For example, the trend intensity of gold and silver is - 1, indicating a bearish view; copper has a trend intensity of 0, suggesting a neutral stance [2][9][13]. 2. Core Views of the Report - Each commodity has its own market situation and price trend. Generally, factors such as supply - demand relationship, macro - news, and cost changes affect commodity prices. For example, the cost curve of lithium carbonate is moving down, and its trend may remain weak; copper lacks driving forces and its price is in a volatile state [2][11][33]. 3. Summary by Commodity Precious Metals - **Gold**: It broke below the support level, with a trend intensity of - 1. The prices of domestic and international gold futures and spot showed different degrees of change. For example, the daily increase of Shanghai Gold 2506 was 1.65%, and the overnight decline was - 0.38% [2][6][9]. - **Silver**: It oscillated and declined, with a trend intensity of - 1. The prices of silver futures and spot also fluctuated. For instance, the daily increase of Shanghai Silver 2506 was 1.13%, and the overnight decline was - 0.15% [2][6][9]. Base Metals - **Copper**: It lacked driving forces and the price was in a volatile state, with a trend intensity of 0. The prices of domestic and international copper futures and spot changed, and there were also news about copper mines' production and cooperation [11][13]. - **Aluminum**: It was in a range - bound oscillation, with a trend intensity of 0. The prices of aluminum futures and spot, as well as related costs and inventories, showed certain changes. For example, the closing price of the Shanghai Aluminum main contract decreased by 55 compared with the previous day [14][16]. - **Alumina**: It rebounded significantly, with a trend intensity of 0. The trading volume and price of alumina futures increased, and there were changes in export data [14][16]. - **Zinc**: There was a surplus in the long - term, and the price was under pressure, with a trend intensity of - 1. The prices of zinc futures and spot, as well as inventory and other data, changed [17][18]. - **Lead**: There was a weak supply - demand situation, and it was in an oscillating state, with a trend intensity of 0. The prices of lead futures and spot, as well as inventory and other data, changed [20][21]. - **Tin**: It was in a narrow - range oscillation, with a trend intensity of - 1. The prices of tin futures and spot, as well as inventory and other data, changed [23][25]. - **Nickel**: The contradiction in nickel ore provided a bottom - support, and the conversion economy might limit the upside valuation, with a trend intensity of 0. The prices of nickel futures and spot, as well as related costs and inventories, changed [27][32]. - **Stainless Steel**: The cost bottom space was clear, but there was a lack of substantial driving forces for upward movement, with a trend intensity of 0. The prices of stainless - steel futures and spot changed [27][32]. Energy and Chemicals - **Lithium Carbonate**: The cost curve continued to move down, and the trend might remain weak, with a trend intensity of - 1. The prices of lithium - carbonate futures and spot, as well as related costs and inventories, changed [33][35]. - **Industrial Silicon**: It was in a weak pattern, and attention should be paid to upstream supply changes, with a trend intensity of - 1. The prices of industrial - silicon futures and spot, as well as related costs and inventories, changed [36][38]. - **Polysilicon**: The demand declined, and the market also maintained a downward trend, with a trend intensity of - 1. The prices of polysilicon futures and spot, as well as related costs and inventories, changed [36][38]. - **Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil**: The raw materials continued to decline, and they were in a weak - oscillating state, with a trend intensity of 0. The prices of rebar and hot - rolled coil futures and spot, as well as related costs and inventories, changed [39][41]. - **Silicon Iron and Manganese Silicon**: They were in a wide - range oscillation, with a trend intensity of 0. The prices of silicon - iron and manganese - silicon futures and spot, as well as related costs and inventories, changed [42][44]. - **Coke and Coking Coal**: With the decline of hot metal, they were in a wide - range oscillation, with a trend intensity of 0. The prices of coke and coking - coal futures and spot, as well as related costs and inventories, changed [46][47][50]. - **Steam Coal**: The coal - mine inventory increased, and it was in a weak - oscillating state, with a trend intensity of 0. The prices of steam - coal futures and spot, as well as related costs and inventories, changed [51][53]. - **Para - Xylene**: It was in a single - sided oscillating market, with a trend intensity of 1. The prices of para - xylene futures and spot, as well as related costs and inventories, changed [55][56][59]. - **PTA**: The strategy was to go long on PX and short on PTA, with a trend intensity of 1. The prices of PTA futures and spot, as well as related costs and inventories, changed [56][59][60]. - **MEG**: It was still strong on a single - sided basis, with a trend intensity of 1. The prices of MEG futures and spot, as well as related costs and inventories, changed [55][59][61]. - **Rubber**: It was in a weak - oscillating state, with a trend intensity of - 1. The prices of rubber futures and spot, as well as related costs and inventories, changed [2][63][65]. Agricultural Products - The report also briefly mentions some agricultural products such as palm oil, soybean oil, etc., but does not provide detailed analysis. For example, palm oil is under pressure and looking for support at the bottom, and soybean oil has increased short - term risks due to the fluctuation of US biodiesel policy [4].

| 钢材产业期现日报 | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可 [2011] 1292号 2025年5月16日 | | | 問敏波 | Z0010559 | | | 钢材价格及价差 | | | | | | | 品种 | 机信 | 前值 | 张跃 | 某差 | 单位 | | 螺纹钢现货(华东) | 3240 | 3250 | -10 | 90 | | | 螺纹钢现货(华北) | 3230 | 3220 | 10 | 80 | | | 螺纹钢现货(华南) | 3370 | 3360 | 10 | 220 | | | 螺纹钢05合约 | 3075 | 3060 | 15 | 165 | | | 螺纹钢10合约 | 3118 | 3127 | -d | 122 | | | 螺纹钢01合约 | 3150 | 3155 | -5 | 90 | | | 热卷现货(华东) | 3300 | 3320 | -20 | 28 | 元/吨 | | 热卷现货(华北) | 3230 | 3230 | O | -42 | | | 热卷现货(华南) ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The report gives a "Weak Oscillation" rating for the coking coal and coke sectors in the black industry [1] 2. Core Viewpoints - The delay of the tariff policy has boosted the sentiment in the black industry, but now the sentiment - based trading is basically completed. The spot prices of coking coal and coke are running weakly. Although the apparent demand of the five major steel products has rebounded this week, the pig iron output has begun to decline, and steel mills still have the intention to further lower the prices [1] 3. Summary by Relevant Contents Market Review - The Jm2509 contract closed at 883.0, down 1.29% from the previous trading day's close. The J2505 contract closed at 1472.0, down 0.67% from the previous trading day's close. In the night session, the Jm2509 contract closed at 864.5, down 2.10% from the day - session close, and the J2509 contract closed at 1456.0, down 1.09% from the day - session close [1] Important Information - This week, the supply of the five major steel products was 883.69 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 5.82 million tons or 0.7%. The total inventory of the five major steel products was 1430.66 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 45.41 million tons or 3.1%. The weekly consumption of the five major products was 913.76 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 8%. Among them, the consumption of building materials increased by 16.2% week - on - week, and the consumption of plates increased by 5.2% week - on - week [1] - This week, the utilization rate of the approved production capacity of 523 coking coal mine samples was 89.3%, a week - on - week decrease of 0.7%. The daily average output of raw coal was 200.6 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 1.5 million tons, and the raw coal inventory was 606.8 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 27.0 million tons [1] - Today, the first round of price cuts for coke began to be implemented, with a reduction of 50 - 55 yuan/ton [1] Market Logic - The delay of the tariff policy has boosted the sentiment in the black industry, but now the sentiment - based trading is basically completed. The spot prices of coking coal and coke are running weakly. The price of low - sulfur main coking coal in Shanxi has been lowered again, there are more unsuccessful online auctions, and the transaction prices are mainly decreasing. The first round of price cuts for coke has basically been implemented. Although the apparent demand of the five major steel products has rebounded this week, the pig iron output has begun to decline. Steel mills still have the intention to further lower the prices. Attention should be paid to China's direct or indirect steel export data [1] Trading Strategy - In the short term, coking coal will mainly fluctuate widely in the range of 850 - 900, and coke will fluctuate in the range of 1440 - 1500. It will face pressure and fall back above the range. Short - term short positions can be held continuously [1]

Group 1: Investment Ratings and General Market Outlook - No explicit report industry investment rating provided [1] - The core view is that various commodities show different trends based on factors such as national policies, trade negotiation results, and supply - demand fundamentals. Market sentiment has been affected by factors like China - US trade talks and inflation data [1] Group 2: Macro - Financial Sector - **Stock Index**: Since April, with the support of national policies and Central Huijin's funds, the stock index has recovered the technical gap formed by the tariff shock on April 2. The current risk - return ratio of chasing the rise is not high. Holders of long positions can consider reducing positions on rallies [1] - **Treasury Bonds**: Asset shortage and weak economy are favorable for bond futures, but the central bank's short - term reminder of interest - rate risks suppresses the upward space [1] - **Gold**: Short - term market risk appetite has recovered, and the gold price may enter a consolidation phase, but the medium - to - long - term upward logic remains unchanged [1] - **Silver**: Overall, it follows gold, but an unexpected tariff result will benefit the commodity attribute of silver, so the short - term resilience of the silver price may be stronger than that of gold [1] Group 3: Non - Ferrous Metals Sector - **Copper**: The result of China - US trade negotiations exceeded expectations, and short - term market sentiment has improved. However, the copper price has significantly rebounded and may fluctuate [1] - **Aluminum and Alumina**: The aluminum electrolysis industry has no obvious contradictions. With the unexpected result of China - US trade negotiations, the aluminum price continues to rebound. Supply disturbances of bauxite and alumina have increased, and the supply - demand pattern of alumina has improved. The short - term price may further rebound [1] - **Zinc**: Although the macro sentiment has improved, the terminal demand has weakened significantly in the off - season, and with the inflow of imported goods, the zinc price remains weak [1] - **Nickel and Stainless Steel**: US inflation has cooled more than expected, and the result of China - US talks has exceeded market expectations. The export order expectation of terminals has improved, and market risk appetite is expected to recover. The Indonesian resource tax policy has been implemented, and the premium of nickel ore is high. There are rumors of a mining ban in the Philippines, but the implementation is difficult. The nickel price fluctuates in the short term, and there is still pressure from the surplus of primary nickel in the medium - to - long term. The short - term stainless steel futures fluctuate and rebound, but there is still supply pressure in the medium - to - long term [1] - **Tin**: With the unexpected result of China - US talks and improved macro sentiment, the tin price is expected to rebound. The resumption of production in Wa State needs to be continuously monitored [1] - **Industrial Silicon**: Supply is strong, demand is weak, it has entered the low - valuation range, demand has not improved, inventory pressure has not been relieved, and the China - US tariff negotiation result is unexpected [1] - **Polycrystalline Silicon**: The number of registered warehouse receipts is extremely small, the first delivery is approaching, the futures price is at a discount to the spot price, and the willingness to register warehouse receipts is low, and the China - US tariff negotiation result is unexpected [1] - **Lithium Carbonate**: Supply has not further shrunk, the visible inventory has continued to accumulate, the downstream raw material inventory is at a high level, downstream still maintains rigid - demand purchases at low prices, and the China - US tariff negotiation result is unexpected [1] Group 4: Ferrous Metals Sector - **Steel Products (Rebar, Hot - Rolled Coil)**: The trade turmoil has intensified the pressure on the export chain. The short - term risk appetite is slightly poor, and the opening price dives downward [1] - **Iron Ore**: The tariff policy affects market sentiment, and the iron ore with strong financial attributes is under short - term pressure [1] - **Manganese Silicon**: There is still an expectation of decline under the expectation of manganese ore surplus, and the variety has heavy warehouse - receipt pressure [1] - **Silicon Iron**: The cost is dragged down by thermal coal, but the production reduction in the production area is large, and the supply - demand situation has become tight [1] - **Glass**: The situation of weak supply and demand continues. With the arrival of the rainy season, there are concerns about weakening demand, and the price continues to be weak [1] - **Soda Ash**: There are many overhauls in May, and the direct demand is okay, but there is medium - term supply surplus, and the price is under pressure [1] - **Coking Coal and Coke**: The supply and demand of coking coal and coke are relatively surplus and are short - positioned in the sector. It is recommended that industrial customers actively seize the opportunities of cash - and - carry arbitrage and selling hedging when the market rebounds to a premium. Consider participating in the JM9 - 1 calendar spread arbitrage [1] Group 5: Agricultural Products Sector - **Palm Oil**: The rise in crude oil will drive the rebound of palm oil, and the China - US talks will drag down the soybean - palm oil price spread. It is recommended to short after the crude oil price falls [1] - **Soybean Oil**: China - US talks are expected to have a negative impact on soybean oil sentiment in the short term, dragging down the soybean - palm oil price spread. It is recommended to wait and see [1] - **Rapeseed Oil**: The northern rapeseed - producing areas in Europe are still dry, which is not conducive to the formation of rapeseed yield per unit in the bolting stage. The China - Canada relationship is still uncertain. If Canada cancels the additional tariffs on China, it is expected to cause a large decline. Consider long - volatility strategies [1] - **Cotton**: In the short term, there are disturbances such as trade negotiations and weather premiums for US cotton. In the long term, macro uncertainties are still strong. The domestic cotton - spinning industry has entered the consumption off - season, and there are signs of inventory accumulation in downstream finished products. It is expected that the domestic cotton price will maintain a weak and fluctuating trend [1] - **Sugar**: According to the latest forecast of the Brazilian National Supply Company, Brazil's sugarcane production in the 2025/26 season is expected to be 663.4 million tons, a 2% decline from the previous year. The sugar production is expected to reach a record 4.59 million tons, a 4% increase from the previous year. If the crude oil price continues to be weak, it may affect the sugar - making ratio in Brazil's new crushing season and lead to an unexpected increase in sugar production [1] - **Corn**: The overall situation of deep - processing in the Northeast has stabilized, the decline in Shandong's deep - processing has slowed down. The import corn auction policy and China - US economic and trade talks have a negative impact on sentiment. The market回调 in the short term. It is recommended to buy on dips and pay attention to the C07 - C01 calendar spread arbitrage [1] - **Soybean Meal**: There is no driving force for speculation in US soybean planting. The domestic market continues to digest the negative factors of spot pressure and Brazilian selling pressure, and the market is expected to fluctuate [1] - **Pulp**: After the positive impact of the unexpected China - US trade negotiation on pulp futures is realized, the fundamentals still lack upward momentum, and it is expected to fluctuate [1] - **Logs**: The arrival volume of logs remains high, the overall inventory is high, and the price of terminal products has declined. There is no short - term positive factor, and it is expected to fluctuate at a low level [1] - **Pigs**: With the continuous repair of the pig inventory, the slaughter weight continues to increase. The market expectation is obvious, the futures price is at a large discount to the spot price, and there are no bright spots in the downstream [1] Group 6: Energy and Chemical Sector - **Crude Oil - Related (Fuel Oil, Palm Oil)**: The result of China - US trade negotiations far exceeds market expectations, reducing concerns about weakening demand. After a sharp decline, there is a demand for rebound and repair [1] - **BR Rubber**: The result of China - US trade negotiations is unexpected. In the short term, the raw material cost support is strengthened due to rainfall in the production area. In the medium - to - long term, the fundamentals are loose, and demand is weak, and the price is expected to decline [1] - **PTA, Short - Fiber, and Related Products**: The upstream PX device is under intensive maintenance, and the internal - external price difference of PX has been significantly repaired. The demand for PTA is supported by the high load of polyester. The PTA shortage strengthens the cost support for short - fiber, and short - fiber performs strongly under the high basis [1] - **Ethylene Glycol**: Ethylene glycol devices are under maintenance, large - scale devices in Jiangsu and Zhejiang have reduced their loads, and coal - based devices have started to be overhauled [1] - **Pure Benzene and Styrene**: The improvement of China - US tariff policies stimulates market speculative demand, the pure benzene price gradually strengthens, the profit of the reforming device declines, and the downstream demand for styrene is expected to pick up [1] - **Methanol**: The basis strengthens, the trading volume is average. In the short term, the methanol price fluctuates in a range and is slightly strong. In the medium - to - long term, the methanol spot market may change from strong to weak and fluctuate [1] - **PE, PP, PVC, and Caustic Soda**: For PE, the basis strengthens, and the trading volume is general. It fluctuates slightly strongly in the short term and may change from strong to weak in the medium - to - long term. For PP, some previously overhauled devices have resumed operation, demand is stable, and it fluctuates slightly strongly with macro - positive factors. For PVC, the fundamentals are weak, and it rebounds in the short term with macro - positive factors. For caustic soda, the spot demand is weak, and the driving force for price increase is insufficient, and the price fluctuates weakly [1]

| 财产业期现日报 | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可 【2011】1292号 2025年5月14日 | | | 周敏波 | Z0010559 | | | 钢材价格及价差 | | | | | | | 品种 | 现值 | 前值 | 张庆 | 其差 | 单位 | | 螺纹钢现货(华东) | 3220 | 3220 | O | 118 | | | 螺纹钢现货(华北) | 3210 | 3210 | 0 | 108 | | | 螺纹钢现货(华南) | 3340 | 3310 | 30 | 238 | | | 螺纹钢05合约 | 3033 | 3036 | -3 | 187 | | | 螺纹钢10合约 | 3079 | 3082 | -3 | 141 | | | 螺纹钢01合约 | 3102 | 3103 | -1 | 118 | | | 热卷现货(华东) | 3260 | 3280 | -20 | 32 | 元/吨 | | 热卷现货(华北) | 3210 | 3200 | 10 | -18 | | | 热卷现货(华南) | ...

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - No industry investment ratings are provided in the reports. 2. Core Views of the Reports Steel - The steel industry shows strong supply - demand on the industrial side with continuous inventory reduction. Low inventory supports the market, and improved macro - sentiment is expected to repair the valuation. Attention should be paid to the impact of terminal restocking on spot prices. For the October contract, the pressure range for rebar is 3200 - 3250, and for hot - rolled coils, it is 3300 - 3400 [1]. Iron Ore - In the short - term, the valuation of iron ore is expected to be repaired, but in the medium - to - long - term, a bearish view is maintained. The high - level of molten iron production is approaching its peak, and the supply - demand pressure of iron ore will increase in the future [4]. Coke - The coke market is in a weak pattern. The spot market is slightly declining, and the futures market has a large hedging pressure. It is recommended to hold the strategy of going long on hot - rolled coils and short on coke, and pay attention to the implementation of crude steel reduction and tariff negotiations [6]. Coking Coal - The coking coal market is in a situation of loose supply - demand. It is recommended to hold the strategy of going long on hot - rolled coils and short on coking coal, and pay attention to the implementation of crude steel reduction and tariff negotiations [6]. Ferrosilicon - The supply - demand contradiction of ferrosilicon has been alleviated. The cost is relatively stable, and with positive macro - level news, the price is expected to rebound based on valuation repair [8]. Silicomanganese - The silicomanganese market is in a situation where production is decreasing, and the supply - demand gap is narrowing. With positive macro - level news, the price is expected to stabilize and rebound based on valuation repair [8]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Steel Prices and Spreads - Rebar and hot - rolled coil spot prices in different regions have different changes, with some rising and some falling. Futures contract prices also show fluctuations [1]. Cost and Profit - Steel billet prices decreased by 20 yuan/ton, while some steel production costs increased. Profits in different regions and varieties also changed, with some increasing and some decreasing [1]. Production - The daily average molten iron production increased by 0.2 to 245.6 tons, with a 0.1% increase. The production of five major steel products decreased by 9.5 tons to 874.2 tons, a 1.1% decrease. Rebar production decreased significantly by 4.2% [1]. Inventory - The inventory of five major steel products increased by 29.0 tons to 1476.1 tons, a 2.0% increase. Rebar and hot - rolled coil inventories also increased [1]. Transaction and Demand - Building material trading volume decreased by 27.8%, and the apparent demand for five major steel products decreased by 12.9%. The apparent demand for rebar and hot - rolled coils also decreased significantly [1]. Iron Ore Prices and Spreads - The warehouse - receipt costs of various iron ore varieties decreased slightly, and the basis of the 09 - contract for different varieties increased significantly. The 5 - 9 spread increased by 49.4%, while the 9 - 1 and 1 - 5 spreads changed [4]. Supply - The 45 - port arrival volume decreased by 2.5%, the global shipment volume decreased by 4.3%, and the national monthly import volume decreased by 0.2% [4]. Demand - The daily average molten iron production of 247 steel mills increased by 0.1%, the 45 - port daily average ore - discharging volume decreased by 5.0%, and the national monthly pig iron and crude steel production increased significantly [4]. Inventory - The 45 - port inventory decreased by 0.4%, the imported ore inventory of 247 steel mills decreased by 4.0%, and the inventory - available days of 64 steel mills remained unchanged [4]. Coke Prices and Spreads - Coke spot prices in different regions and futures contract prices showed fluctuations. The 9 - 1 spread remained unchanged. The coking profit increased significantly [6]. Supply - The daily average production of full - sample coking plants and 247 steel mills decreased slightly [6]. Demand - The molten iron production of 247 steel mills increased slightly [6]. Inventory - The total coke inventory decreased by 1.8%, and the inventories of full - sample coking plants, 247 steel mills, and ports all decreased [6]. Coking Coal Prices and Spreads - Coking coal spot prices in different regions remained stable, and futures contract prices decreased. The basis increased, and the 9 - 1 spread remained unchanged. The sample coal mine profit decreased slightly [6]. Supply - The raw coal and clean coal production of Fenwei sample coal mines increased slightly [6]. Demand - The demand for coking coal, represented by coke production, decreased slightly [6]. Inventory - The coking coal inventory of Fenwei coal mines increased, while the inventories of full - sample coking plants and ports decreased [6]. Ferrosilicon Prices and Spreads - The closing price of the ferrosilicon main contract decreased by 0.4%. Spot prices in different regions remained mostly stable [8]. Cost and Profit - The production cost in Inner Mongolia increased slightly, and the production profit increased slightly. The prices of manganese ore in Tianjin Port increased [8]. Supply - Ferrosilicon production increased by 3.9%, and the operating rate increased by 5.8% [8]. Demand - The ferrosilicon demand decreased by 1.1%, and the iron and steel - related demand indicators showed different changes [8]. Inventory - The inventory of 60 sample enterprises decreased by 11.8% [8]. Silicomanganese Prices and Spreads - The closing price of the silicomanganese main contract decreased by 1.0%. Spot prices in different regions increased slightly [8]. Cost and Profit - The production cost in Inner Mongolia remained stable, and the production profit situation was not significantly changed [8]. Supply - Silicomanganese production decreased by 1.1%, and the operating rate decreased by 7.9% [8]. Demand - The silicomanganese demand decreased by 1.8%, and the iron and steel - related demand indicators showed different changes [8]. Inventory - The inventory of 63 sample enterprises increased by 13.9% [8].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No information about industry investment ratings is provided in the reports. 2. Core Views Steel - Tariff cuts exceed expectations, demand expectations are revised upward, and macro - sentiment improvement is expected to repair valuations. The industry has strong supply and demand and continuous de - stocking. Pay attention to the impact of terminal restocking on spot prices and the pressure in specific price ranges for different contracts [1]. Iron Ore - The 09 contract rebounded due to macro - level sentiment. Fundamentally, daily iron - water production remains high, and inventory pressure eases. The sustainability of high iron - water production depends on terminal demand for finished products, and the supply - demand pressure may increase in the future. It is expected to have short - term valuation repair but a bearish outlook in the medium - to - long - term [4]. Coke - The futures rebounded due to tariff negotiation results. The second round of spot price increase is difficult to implement, and the market is bearish. Although the fundamentals have improved, factors such as weak coking coal, over - capacity, and lack of pricing power lead to a weak downward trend. It is recommended to hold the strategy of going long on hot - rolled coils and short on coke [6]. Coking Coal - The futures rebounded due to tariff negotiation results, but the spot market is weak, and the supply - demand pattern is loose. High supply, high imports, and high inventory are the main reasons for the price decline. It is recommended to hold the strategy of going long on hot - rolled coils and short on coking coal [6]. Ferrosilicon - The futures main contract continued to rebound. Supply pressure has eased after previous production cuts, but inventory is still at a medium - to - high level. Demand is cautious, and cost is relatively stable. It is expected that the price will stabilize and rebound, but the trend - based market lacks momentum [7]. Ferromanganese - The main contract rebounded slightly. The fundamentals lack a basis for continuous rebound. Production is in a state of reduction, and demand is affected by factors such as iron - water production and finished - product inventory. Manganese ore prices are expected to stabilize. It is expected that the price will oscillate and bottom - build, and then rebound [7]. 3. Summaries by Catalogs Steel Prices and Spreads - The prices of most steel products, including rebar and hot - rolled coils in different regions and contracts, have increased. The basis and spreads also show certain changes [1]. Cost and Profit - Steel billet prices have increased, while some costs and profits of steel products have decreased, such as the profits of hot - rolled coils in different regions [1]. Supply - The daily average iron - water production has a slight increase, while the production of five major steel products and rebar has decreased, and the production of hot - rolled coils has a slight increase [1]. Inventory - The inventory of five major steel products and rebar has increased, while the inventory change shows a certain trend [1]. Demand - Building material trading volume has a slight increase, but the apparent demand for five major steel products, rebar, and hot - rolled coils has decreased [1]. Iron Ore Prices and Spreads - The prices of iron ore varieties such as warehouse - receipt costs and spot prices have increased, and the basis and spreads have changed significantly [4]. Supply - The weekly arrival volume at 45 ports and global shipment volume have decreased, while monthly import volume has a slight decrease [4]. Demand - The weekly average daily iron - water production of 247 steel mills has a slight increase, and monthly pig iron and crude - steel production have increased significantly [4]. Inventory - The inventory at 45 ports and the imported ore inventory of 247 steel mills have decreased [4]. Coke Prices and Spreads - The prices of coke products in different regions and contracts have changed, and the basis and spreads have also adjusted. The coking profit has increased [6]. Supply - The daily average production of full - sample coking plants and 247 steel mills has a slight decrease [6]. Demand - The iron - water production of 247 steel mills has a slight increase [6]. Inventory - The total coke inventory and the inventory of different sectors, such as coking plants, steel mills, and ports, have decreased [6]. Supply - Demand Gap - The supply - demand gap of coke has a certain change [6]. Coking Coal Prices and Spreads - The prices of coking coal in different forms and contracts have changed, and the basis and spreads have also adjusted. The sample coal - mine profit has a slight decrease [6]. Supply - The production of domestic coal mines is at a relatively high level, and the import volume of coking coal has changed due to various factors [6]. Demand - Downstream users purchase coking coal on - demand as the blast - furnace and coking - plant operations increase [6]. Inventory - The coal - mine inventory is at a high level and continues to accumulate, while the port inventory decreases, and the downstream inventory is at a low level [6]. Ferrosilicon Prices and Spreads - The main - contract price of ferrosilicon futures has increased, and the prices of spot products in different regions and spreads have changed [7]. Cost and Profit - The production cost in Inner Mongolia has decreased, and the production profit has increased. The Lanzhou - charcoal price remains stable [7]. Supply - The weekly production of ferrosilicon has increased slightly, and the production - enterprise start - up rate has increased [7]. Demand - The iron - water production remains high, but the downstream demand for procurement is cautious. The overseas demand has changes in quotation and inquiry [7]. Inventory - The inventory of 60 sample enterprises has decreased, and the average available days for downstream users have decreased [7]. Ferromanganese Prices and Spreads - The main - contract price of ferromanganese futures has increased, and the prices of spot products in different regions and spreads have changed [7]. Cost and Profit - The production cost in Inner Mongolia has decreased slightly, and the production profit has increased. The prices of manganese ore from different sources remain stable [7]. Manganese Ore Supply - The weekly shipment volume of manganese ore has decreased, while the arrival volume and port - clearance volume have increased [7]. Manganese Ore Inventory - The port inventory of manganese ore has decreased [7]. Supply - The weekly production of ferromanganese has decreased, and the start - up rate has decreased [7]. Demand - The demand for ferromanganese has a slight decrease, and the procurement volume of a large enterprise remains stable [7]. Inventory - The inventory of 63 sample enterprises has increased, and the average available days have increased slightly [7].

| 材产业期现日报 | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可 [2011] 1292号 2025年5月9日 | | | 周敏波 | Z0010559 | | | 钢材价格及价差 | | | | | | | 品种 | 现值 | 前值 | 涨跌 | 基差 | 单位 | | 螺纹钢现货(华东) | 3200 | 3220 | -20 | 126 | | | 螺纹钢现货(华北) | 3200 | 3210 | -10 | 126 | | | 螺纹钢现货(华南) | 3300 | 3320 | -20 | 226 | | | 螺纹钢05合约 | 2991 | 3048 | -57 | 209 | | | 螺纹钢10合约 | 3052 | 3098 | -46 | 148 | | | 螺纹钢01合约 | 3074 | 3156 | -52 | 126 | | | 热卷现货(华东) | 3250 | 3270 | -20 | 50 | 元/吨 | | 热卷现货(华北) | 3200 | 3220 | -20 | 0 | | | 热卷现 ...