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PTA、MEG早报-20250901
Da Yue Qi Huo· 2025-09-01 01:58
Report Industry Investment Rating - There is no information provided regarding the report industry investment rating in the given content. Core Viewpoints of the Report - For PTA, last week the PTA market followed the cost - end trend, rising and then falling. The effect of PTA device maintenance was less than expected, the liquidity in the spot market was okay, the spot basis weakened, and the processing margin, although slightly improved from the low point, remained at a relatively low level. Attention should be paid to the maintenance of Hengli Huizhou's device and subsequent changes in upstream and downstream devices [5]. - For MEG, last week the arrival volume of ethylene glycol was scarce. It is expected that the visible inventory will drop below 450,000 tons early next week, and the arrival volume in early September will remain moderately low. In terms of demand, the polyester load this week rebounded to around 90.3%, and it is expected that the average load in September will reach 91.5%, with improved rigid - demand support. Recently, the commodity market has corrected, and the MEG market has been under pressure. It is expected that the price of ethylene glycol will fluctuate within a range in the short term, with strong support at the bottom. Attention should be paid to device changes and polyester load [6]. Summary According to the Table of Contents 1. Previous Day's Review - There is no information provided regarding the previous day's review in the given content. 2. Daily Tips PTA - **Fundamentals**: On Friday, a small number of polyester factories made bids. Transactions for next - week's goods were around a discount of 32 - 37 to the 01 contract, and for mid - and late - September goods, at a discount of 30 - 38 to the 01 contract, with individual prices slightly lower. The price negotiation range was around 4,720 - 4,760. The mainstream spot basis today was 01 - 35, showing a neutral situation [5]. - **Basis**: The spot price was 4,740, and the basis of the 01 contract was - 44, indicating that the futures price was higher than the spot price, a neutral situation [5]. - **Inventory**: The PTA factory inventory was 3.81 days, a week - on - week increase of 0.1 days, which is a bearish factor [5]. - **Market Chart**: The 20 - day moving average was upward, and the closing price was above the 20 - day moving average, a bullish sign [5]. - **Main Force Position**: The net position was short, and the short position decreased, a bearish factor [5]. MEG - **Fundamentals**: On Friday, the price of ethylene glycol fluctuated within a narrow range, and the trading volume in the market was average. The price of ethylene glycol had limited fluctuations during the day, and the buying interest from traders was average. Spot transactions were around a premium of 60 - 68 yuan/ton to the 01 contract, and today's spot transaction prices were relatively low. In the US - dollar market, the price of ethylene glycol fluctuated within a narrow range, and recent cargo negotiations were around 534 - 536 US dollars/ton. The market negotiation was weak, and buyers were cautious [6]. - **Basis**: The spot price was 4,534, and the basis of the 01 contract was 68, indicating that the spot price was higher than the futures price, a neutral situation [7]. - **Inventory**: The total inventory in East China was 406,300 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 94,200 tons, a bullish factor [7]. - **Market Chart**: The 20 - day moving average was upward, and the closing price was above the 20 - day moving average, a bullish sign [7]. - **Main Force Position**: The main force's net position was short, and the short position decreased, a bearish factor [7]. 3. Today's Focus - **Positive Factors**: In August, some PTA devices were planned for maintenance, which improved the supply - demand outlook. As the traditional "Golden September and Silver October" peak season approaches, the market has shown some expectations for the start of demand. Yisheng Hainan's 2 - million - ton device stopped for maintenance, and Hengli Huizhou's 2.5 - million - ton device had an unplanned shutdown [10]. - **Negative Factors**: The profit margins of each link in the industrial chain continued to be under pressure, and the overall operating atmosphere remained cautious. In the short term, the commodity market was greatly affected by the macro - environment. Attention should be paid to the cost - end, and for the market rebound, attention should be paid to the upper resistance level [9]. 4. Fundamental Data - **PTA Supply - Demand Balance Sheet**: It shows the PTA production capacity, production, import, total supply, polyester production, consumption, and other data from January 2024 to December 2025, reflecting the supply - demand relationship and inventory changes of PTA over time [11]. - **Ethylene Glycol Supply - Demand Balance Sheet**: It presents the production, import, total supply, polyester production, consumption, and port inventory data of ethylene glycol from January 2024 to December 2025, showing the supply - demand situation and inventory changes of ethylene glycol [12]. - **Price Data**: It includes the spot prices of naphtha, paraxylene, PTA, MEG, and various polyester products, as well as futures prices and basis data. It also shows the processing margins and profits of PTA and MEG [13].
冠通每日交易策略-20250829
Guan Tong Qi Huo· 2025-08-29 10:10
Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - For copper, the overnight copper price strengthened, with the market focusing on the Fed's interest - rate cut and independence issues. The upward potential of the current price is approaching the resistance level, and caution is needed for a possible correction [9]. - For lithium carbonate, after a significant correction in the market, it has stimulated downstream purchasing sentiment. With supply - side disturbances ongoing and approaching the peak season, the downside is limited, but the market is volatile and requires cautious operation [11]. - For crude oil, although the price rebounded due to certain factors, the supply - demand situation is weakening as the consumption peak season ends and OPEC + accelerates production increases. It is recommended to short on rallies [14]. - For asphalt, under the condition of weak supply and demand, the asphalt futures are expected to fluctuate recently with limited cost - side support [15]. - For PP, with the end of the consumption peak season and OPEC + accelerating production increases, and considering supply and demand factors, the PP market is expected to fluctuate recently [17]. - For plastic, with the end of the consumption peak season, oil price pressure, and considering supply and demand, the plastic market is expected to fluctuate recently [18]. - For PVC, due to factors such as reduced export expectations, high inventory, and weak demand, the PVC market is expected to fluctuate downward [20]. - For coking coal, although the market has rumors of a ninth round of price increases, the downstream demand is weakening, but the downward space is limited [21]. - For urea, after a short - term weak adjustment, there may be a rebound opportunity in September with the support of autumn fertilizers and approaching the off - season storage and Indian tender [23]. Summary by Variety Copper - The EU is promoting the EU - US agreement, and the Fed's Waller supports a 25 - basis - point interest rate cut in September. The supply side may face production cuts in the later third quarter, and the demand side has weak market transactions. The upward potential of the price is approaching the resistance level [9]. Lithium Carbonate - The average price of battery - grade and industrial - grade lithium carbonate decreased. In July, imports decreased significantly, and domestic production in August - September is expected to decline. The demand side has support, but the market is volatile [11]. Crude Oil - The US oil and gasoline inventories are decreasing, and OPEC + will increase production in September. The market is concerned about the US economy, and the supply - demand situation is expected to weaken [12][14]. Asphalt - The asphalt production rate is declining, and the planned production in September will increase. The downstream demand is affected by various factors, and the cost - side support is limited, resulting in a volatile market [15]. PP - The downstream and enterprise production rates have changed, and the inventory is at a neutral level. With the end of the consumption peak season, the market is expected to fluctuate [16][17]. Plastic - The production rate is stable, and the downstream production rate has increased slightly. The cost - side pressure is high, and the market is expected to fluctuate [18]. PVC - The production rate is decreasing, the export expectations are weakening, the inventory is high, and the demand is weak. The market is expected to fluctuate downward [19][20]. Coking Coal - The spot price has changed, the import volume has increased, and the downstream demand is weakening. Although there are rumors of price increases, the downward space is limited [21]. Urea - The spot price has increased slightly, the supply has decreased due to maintenance, the demand has been affected by environmental protection, and there may be a rebound opportunity in September [23].
化工日报:本周EG主港库存继续下降-20250829
Hua Tai Qi Huo· 2025-08-29 06:06
Report Summary 1. Investment Rating - Unilateral: Neutral [3] 2. Core Views - Yesterday, the closing price of the main EG contract was 4,465 yuan/ton, down 16 yuan/ton or 0.36% from the previous trading day. The spot price of EG in the East China market was 4,525 yuan/ton, down 25 yuan/ton or 0.55%. The spot basis of EG in East China (based on the 2509 contract) was 66 yuan/ton, up 5 yuan/ton month-on-month [1]. - On Thursday, the price of ethylene glycol was weakly consolidated, and the market negotiation was average. The weak commodity atmosphere and the planned production cut by large polyester bottle chip manufacturers suppressed market sentiment [1]. - The production profit of ethylene-based EG was -$48/ton, down $2/ton month-on-month, and the production profit of coal-based syngas EG was -18 yuan/ton, up 1 yuan/ton month-on-month [1]. - According to CCF data, the inventory of MEG at the main ports in East China was 500,000 tons, down 47,000 tons month-on-month; according to Longzhong data, it was 413,000 tons, down 85,000 tons month-on-month. As of August 28, the total inventory of MEG at the main ports in East China was 413,200 tons, down 26,300 tons from Monday and 84,600 tons from last Thursday [1]. - On the supply side, domestic ethylene glycol production has returned to a high level and is expected to remain stable in the short term. Overseas, the Malaysian plant has restarted, and imports are expected to increase after August. On the demand side, there are signs of recovery, with increased foreign trade shipments and the gradual start of domestic sales stocking. Polyester production is expected to remain stable with a slight increase, reaching a peak in late September. The balance sheet from August to September shows a loose balance with little supply-demand contradiction [2]. 3. Summary by Directory Price and Basis - Yesterday, the closing price of the main EG contract was 4,465 yuan/ton, down 16 yuan/ton or 0.36% from the previous trading day. The spot price of EG in the East China market was 4,525 yuan/ton, down 25 yuan/ton or 0.55%. The spot basis of EG in East China (based on the 2509 contract) was 66 yuan/ton, up 5 yuan/ton month-on-month [1] Production Profit and Operating Rate - The production profit of ethylene-based EG was -$48/ton, down $2/ton month-on-month, and the production profit of coal-based syngas EG was -18 yuan/ton, up 1 yuan/ton month-on-month [1] International Price Difference - No specific data provided Downstream Production, Sales, and Operating Rate - Current demand shows signs of recovery, with increased foreign trade shipments and the gradual start of domestic sales stocking. Polyester production is expected to remain stable with a slight increase, reaching a peak in late September [2] Inventory Data - According to CCF data, the inventory of MEG at the main ports in East China was 500,000 tons, down 47,000 tons month-on-month; according to Longzhong data, it was 413,000 tons, down 85,000 tons month-on-month. As of August 28, the total inventory of MEG at the main ports in East China was 413,200 tons, down 26,300 tons from Monday and 84,600 tons from last Thursday [1]
乙二醇日报:乙二醇成本支撑不佳,盘面上方压力偏强-20250828
Tong Hui Qi Huo· 2025-08-28 15:28
Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints - The short - term price of ethylene glycol may decline slightly due to cost drag, with the upside limited by port inventory pressure and weak demand, and the downside supported by coal - based production costs. Attention should be paid to whether the September coal - chemical plant maintenance plan is implemented and the de - stocking rhythm of polyester filament inventory [2] Group 3: Summary by Directory 1. Daily Market Summary - The price of the ethylene glycol main contract dropped slightly from 4,490 yuan/ton to 4,481 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.2%, with the intraday fluctuation range narrowing to 4,473 - 4,509 yuan/ton. The spot price in East China also dropped slightly by 5 yuan/ton to 4,540 yuan/ton, and the basis strengthened by 9 yuan/ton to 69 yuan/ton. The 1 - 5 spread rose from - 41 yuan/ton to - 35 yuan/ton, while the 5 - 9 spread fell from 91 yuan/ton to 81 yuan/ton [1] - The trading volume of the main contract increased by 10.74% to 168,000 lots, indicating increased short - term trading activity of funds, and some short - sellers may have chosen to take profits and leave the market. The open interest of the main contract decreased by 9,049 lots to 277,223 lots, declining for two consecutive days [1] - The overall operating rates of ethylene glycol from oil - based, coal - based, and total sources remained at 66.22%, with no change compared to the previous period. The polyester factory load remained stable at 89.42%, and the loom load in Jiangsu and Zhejiang was 63.43%. Weak terminal weaving orders led to no seasonal rebound in polyester sales, and the inventory pressure of filaments still existed, suppressing the rigid procurement demand for ethylene glycol [1] 2. Inventory - The inventory at the main ports in East China climbed to 48.57 tons (a week - on - week increase of 13.7%), and the inventory in Zhangjiagang soared by 40.6% to 18 tons in a single week. The port unloading efficiency improved while the arrival volume dropped to 10.17 tons (a week - on - week decrease of 39.7%), reflecting weak actual shipments and prominent pressure of hidden inventory becoming explicit [2] 3. Industry Chain Price Monitoring - The price of the ethylene glycol main contract dropped by 0.2% to 4,481 yuan/ton, the trading volume increased by 10.74% to 168,271 lots, and the open interest decreased by 3.16% to 277,223 lots. The spot price in East China dropped by 0.11% to 4,540 yuan/ton. The basis strengthened by 15% to 69 yuan/ton, the 1 - 5 spread increased by 14.63% to - 35 yuan/ton, the 5 - 9 spread decreased by 10.99% to 81 yuan/ton, and the 9 - 1 spread increased by 8% to - 46 yuan/ton. The coal - based production profit remained unchanged at - 252 yuan/ton [4] - The overall operating rate of ethylene glycol, coal - based and oil - based operating rates, polyester factory load, loom load in Jiangsu and Zhejiang, ethylene - based and methanol - based operating rates all remained unchanged [4] - The inventory at the main ports in East China increased by 13.69% to 48.6 tons, the inventory in Zhangjiagang increased by 40.62% to 18 tons, and the arrival volume decreased by 39.72% to 10.17 tons [4] 4. Industry Dynamics and Interpretation - On August 27, the price in the East China US dollar market was strong in the morning and weakened in the afternoon. The spot price in the Shaanxi ethylene glycol market remained stable, with the average market price around 3,990 yuan/ton for self - pick - up. The price in the mainstream market dropped at the opening, and the price offered by holders in the South China market was lowered to around 4,550 yuan/ton for delivery. After the US imposed a 50% tariff on Indian goods, international oil prices fell, and the ethylene glycol market rebounded after a decline, with the current price in East China around 4,560 yuan/ton [5] 5. Industry Chain Data Charts - The report includes charts on the closing price and basis of the ethylene glycol main contract, ethylene glycol production profit, domestic ethylene glycol plant operating rate, downstream polyester plant operating rate, weekly inventory statistics of ethylene glycol at the main ports in East China, and total inventory in the ethylene glycol industry [6][8][10]
商品股票极限劈叉,进入自下而上选品种的下半场
对冲研投· 2025-08-28 12:37
Group 1 - The article discusses the importance of narratives in shaping market expectations and collective consciousness, suggesting that contemporary wisdom evolves from questioning to creating narratives [1] - It highlights the need for a bottom-up approach to observe commodity situations, noting that the black series (like rebar and coking coal) is constrained by weak real estate investment and high inventory levels [2] - The article points out a shift in market sentiment due to the Federal Reserve's indications of further interest rate easing, which has improved risk appetite and optimism regarding global economic recovery [3] Group 2 - It identifies potential risks, including rising unemployment and inflation overseas, but suggests that the probability of China entering deflation is low, indicating a solid safety margin for commodity bulls [4] - The article emphasizes the importance of supply-demand dynamics, particularly in lithium carbonate, coking coal, and polysilicon, as these sectors may see tightening supply and recovering demand [4] - It notes a change in coal production attitudes, with a reported decrease in coal output and imports, indicating a strong underlying market [6] Group 3 - The article suggests a shift away from traditional commodity tracking methods, indicating that the Chinese economy's reliance on real estate is decreasing, which may open new consumption windows, particularly in energy-related sectors [9] - It highlights the significance of electricity consumption as a key indicator of manufacturing strength, with July's electricity usage surpassing 1 trillion kilowatt-hours, reflecting an 8.6% year-on-year increase [9] - The oil market is projected to face significant oversupply in the coming quarters, with expectations of a surplus of 1.5 million barrels per day in Q4 and over 2 million barrels per day in the first half of 2026 [11] Group 4 - The article discusses the potential for global liquidity improvement driven by anticipated interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, which could benefit commodities like copper and gold [12] - It notes that traditional and new energy metals are supported on the supply side, which may help stabilize commodity prices [12] - The article concludes that commodity volatility may signal changes in market dynamics, emphasizing the need for careful monitoring of these indicators [13]
化工日报:到港偏少,EG主港库存下降至低位-20250828
Hua Tai Qi Huo· 2025-08-28 05:06
Report Summary 1. Investment Rating - Unilateral: Cautiously bullish [3] 2. Core Views - On Wednesday, the ethylene glycol (EG) price fluctuated and adjusted, with general market discussions. The morning session saw a brief upward movement in the futures due to unexpected news from a Singaporean plant. The afternoon session witnessed a decline in the EG futures as the commodity market weakened, but the basis remained strong [1]. - The production profit of ethylene - based EG was -$46/ton (up $1/ton from the previous period), and that of coal - based syngas EG was -¥19/ton (up ¥2/ton from the previous period) [1]. - According to CCF's data on Mondays and Longzhong's data on Thursdays, MEG inventory at the East China main ports decreased. Last week, the actual arrivals at the ports were low, leading to inventory reduction. This week, the planned arrivals at the main ports are still low, and inventory reduction may continue [2]. - In terms of the overall fundamental supply - demand logic, the domestic EG supply has returned to a high level and is expected to remain stable in the short term. Overseas supply is expected to increase after August. Demand is showing signs of recovery, and the polyester load is expected to remain stable with a slight increase, reaching a peak in mid - September [2]. - The supply - demand balance from August to September is loose, with no significant supply - demand contradictions [2]. 3. Summary by Directory Price and Basis - The closing price of the EG main contract was ¥4,481/ton (down ¥9/ton, or -0.20% from the previous trading day), the spot price of EG in the East China market was ¥4,550/ton (down ¥2/ton, or -0.04% from the previous trading day), and the spot basis of EG in East China (based on the 2509 contract) was ¥61/ton (up ¥10/ton) [1]. Production Profit and Operating Rate - The production profit of ethylene - based EG was -$46/ton (up $1/ton from the previous period), and that of coal - based syngas EG was -¥19/ton (up ¥2/ton from the previous period) [1]. International Price Difference - No specific data provided in the report, only a chart of the international price difference between US FOB and Chinese CFR was mentioned [19]. Downstream Sales, Production, and Operating Rate - The demand is showing signs of recovery, with increased foreign trade shipments and the gradual start of domestic sales inventory preparation. The polyester load is expected to remain stable with a slight increase, reaching a peak in mid - September [2]. Inventory Data - According to CCF, MEG inventory at the East China main ports was 500,000 tons (down 47,000 tons from the previous period); according to Longzhong, it was 498,000 tons (down 37,000 tons from the previous period). Last week, the actual arrivals at the ports were 61,000 tons, and this week, the planned arrivals at the main ports are 54,000 tons, still low [2].
美对印关税生效,大量订单取消!印度官员:鼓励开拓中国、拉美、中东市场
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-08-27 09:52
Core Viewpoint - The United States has raised tariffs on Indian goods to 50% due to India's continued purchase of Russian oil, significantly impacting India's exports and employment [1][2]. Group 1: Impact on Trade and Economy - The new tariffs, effective from August 27, make India one of the countries facing the highest tariffs from the U.S., threatening its export and employment [1]. - Economists predict that the tariffs could lead to a decline in India's GDP growth rate by 0.8% to 1% if they persist [7]. - The tariffs are expected to affect over half of India's exports to the U.S., including sectors like apparel, jewelry, footwear, furniture, and chemicals [3]. Group 2: Government Response and Support - The Indian government plans to provide financial support to affected exporters and encourages them to explore markets in China, Latin America, and the Middle East [3][9]. - Despite the government's strong stance to protect farmers and small businesses, there is a lack of hope for immediate tariff reductions from the U.S. [2][9]. Group 3: Competitive Landscape - The high tariffs threaten India's competitiveness in exports, making it difficult to compete with countries like China and Vietnam [5]. - There are concerns that the tariffs could lead to significant job losses in India's export sector and weaken its position in global value chains [5][6]. Group 4: Broader Economic Context - India's exports to the U.S. account for approximately 2% of its GDP, and strong domestic demand may help mitigate the impact of the tariffs [8]. - The bilateral trade volume between India and the U.S. is projected to be around $129 billion in 2024, with a trade deficit of $45.7 billion for India [3].
化工日报:到港偏少,EG主港库存下降至低位-20250827
Hua Tai Qi Huo· 2025-08-27 07:38
Report Industry Investment Rating - The unilateral strategy is cautiously bullish [3] Core View - The closing price of the main EG contract was 4,490 yuan/ton, a change of -19 yuan/ton (-0.42%) from the previous trading day; the spot price in the East China market was 4,552 yuan/ton, a change of +2 yuan/ton (+0.04%); the spot basis in East China was 51 yuan/ton, a decrease of 47 yuan/ton from the previous day. The ethylene glycol port inventory has dropped to around 500,000 tons, and the short - term arrival is continuously low, leading to a stronger spot basis [1] - The production profit of ethylene - made EG was -$47/ton, a +$2/ton change from the previous day; the production profit of coal - made syngas EG was -21 yuan/ton, a +38 yuan/ton change from the previous day [1] - According to CCF's data, the MEG inventory at the main ports in East China was 500,000 tons, a decrease of 47,000 tons from the previous week; according to Longzhong's data, it was 498,000 tons, a decrease of 37,000 tons. The actual arrival at the main ports last week was 61,000 tons, and the planned arrival at the main ports this week is 54,000 tons, remaining low. The planned arrival at the secondary ports is 31,000 tons [2] - On the supply side, the domestic ethylene glycol load has returned to a high level and is expected to remain stable in the short term. Overseas, the Malaysian plant has restarted, and the import is expected to rise above 650,000 tons after August. On the demand side, there are signs of recovery, with an increase in foreign trade shipments and the start of domestic sales stocking. The polyester load is expected to remain stable with a slight increase, and the peak operating rate is expected to be reached in late September [2] - The balance sheet from August to September shows a loose balance, with little supply - demand contradiction [2] Summary by Directory Price and Basis - The closing price of the main EG contract was 4,490 yuan/ton, a change of -19 yuan/ton (-0.42%) from the previous trading day; the spot price in the East China market was 4,552 yuan/ton, a change of +2 yuan/ton (+0.04%); the spot basis in East China was 51 yuan/ton, a decrease of 47 yuan/ton from the previous day [1] Production Profit and Operating Rate - The production profit of ethylene - made EG was -$47/ton, a +$2/ton change from the previous day; the production profit of coal - made syngas EG was -21 yuan/ton, a +38 yuan/ton change from the previous day [1] - Domestically, the ethylene glycol load has returned to a high level and is expected to remain stable in the short term. Overseas, the Malaysian plant has restarted, and the import is expected to rise above 650,000 tons after August [2] International Spread - Not elaborated in the provided text Downstream Sales, Production, and Operating Rate - The demand shows signs of recovery, with an increase in foreign trade shipments and the start of domestic sales stocking. The polyester load is expected to remain stable with a slight increase, and the peak operating rate is expected to be reached in late September [2] Inventory Data - According to CCF's data, the MEG inventory at the main ports in East China was 500,000 tons, a decrease of 47,000 tons from the previous week; according to Longzhong's data, it was 498,000 tons, a decrease of 37,000 tons. The actual arrival at the main ports last week was 61,000 tons, and the planned arrival at the main ports this week is 54,000 tons, remaining low. The planned arrival at the secondary ports is 31,000 tons [2]
供应过剩格局尚未转变 甲醇期货价格或震荡为主
Jin Tou Wang· 2025-08-27 07:04
消息面 8月26日,常州地区国产甲醇价格参考2325-2330元/吨出罐;内地送到常州周边套利空间关闭;张家港 地区可售量几无,暂无报价;靖江上午价格区间参考2300-2330元/吨;南通地区甲醇进口货源主流商家 成交价格2310元/吨附近出库现汇;宁波地区甲醇进口货出罐成交参考2270-2300元/吨附近出库现汇,买 气一般。 机构观点 东海期货: 内地装置重启,到港集中价格承压。随着港口价格下跌,回流窗口即将开启,对现货有一定支撑,且 MTO装置计划重启,传统下游旺季在即,甲醇基本面有边际转好迹象,但供应过剩格局尚未转变,预 计价格震荡为主。 国信期货: 伊朗一套甲醇装置重启恢复,该国国内整体装置开工率提升到79%附近,日产量延续提升至高位,月底 至9月初沿海重要库区甲醇库存将达到满罐水平,关注后期非主力库区库存累积和转口情况。操作建 议:震荡思路对待。 据不完全统计,预计8月22日至9月7日中国进口船货到港量为97.75万-98万吨。国内煤(甲醇)制烯烃 装置平均开工负荷在81.41%,环比持平。 国内甲醇周产能利用率83.76%,上升1.36%,内蒙古新奥60万吨/年甲醇装置预期本周检修结束;下游总 ...
石化板块走高 机构圈出这些机会
Di Yi Cai Jing· 2025-08-26 06:38
Group 1 - The petrochemical sector is experiencing an upward trend, with companies like Compton, Tongkun Co., and Xin Fengming leading the gains [1] - Everbright Securities highlights that despite geopolitical uncertainties, the medium to long-term oil supply and demand dynamics remain favorable, maintaining a positive outlook on "three major oil companies" and the oil service sector [1] - The recovery of the macro economy is boosting chemical demand, and long-term capacity elimination in chemical products is beneficial for leading enterprises, with a positive outlook on large refining, coal chemical, and ethylene profitability [1] Group 2 - Minsheng Securities notes the emergence of "anti-involution" policies in the petrochemical industry, recommending a focus on industry leaders with strong performance stability and consistent high dividends [1] - Oil prices are expected to have a floor, leading to high earnings certainty for oil companies, combined with high dividend characteristics, which may enhance valuations; attention is advised on companies with sustained production growth and low cost [1] - Domestic policies encourage oil and gas reserve increases and production, suggesting a focus on companies in the growth phase of production [1]