Group 1 - The chemical sector continued its adjustment, with the CSI sub-industry chemical theme index closing down 4.30% last Friday and down 6.47% for the week, but still showing a cumulative increase of 27.66% since the second half of the year, outperforming the Shanghai Composite Index by over 16% [1] - The Tianhong Chemical ETF (159133) will be listed on November 25, having raised a net subscription amount of 549.89 million RMB during its fundraising period from November 10 to November 12, with a total of 549.91 million shares issued [1] - The Tianhong Chemical ETF tracks the CSI sub-industry chemical theme index, covering various segments of the chemical industry, including phosphorus chemicals, fluorine chemicals, phosphorus fertilizers, and potassium fertilizers [1] Group 2 - The basic chemical industry has seen an increase in profit growth in the first three quarters, continuing its bottom recovery, with the overall gross margin at 17.69% and net margin at 6.17% for the first three quarters of 2025, both showing a slight year-on-year recovery [2] - The profitability of sub-industries within the basic chemical sector has shown significant differentiation, with improvements noted in fluorine chemicals, potassium fertilizers, synthetic resins, chlor-alkali, and compound fertilizers [2]

1. Report's Industry Investment Ratings - The investment rating for caustic soda is "shockingly weak" [1]. - The investment rating for PVC is "low - level shock" [1]. 2. Core Views of the Report Caustic Soda - High production and high inventory patterns continue, and the market keeps shorting chlor - alkali profits. The impact of alumina's production increase and reduction expectations on caustic soda can basically offset each other. Non - aluminum downstream support is limited, and exports are under pressure, increasing domestic supply pressure. Long - term alumina production cuts will cause negative feedback in the industry chain [5]. - The valuation of caustic soda is suppressed by alumina production cut expectations. With limited cost support and no production cuts by manufacturers, it's difficult for caustic soda to rebound significantly [5]. PVC - The high - production and high - inventory structure is hard to change in the short term. Although the futures price has reached a historical low and some devices may reduce production, the high - start and weak - demand pattern persists before the 03 contract. The supply - side reduction in the maintenance peak season next year can be expected [7]. 3. Summaries According to the Table of Contents 3.1 Viewpoint Overview Caustic Soda - Supply: The average capacity utilization rate of Chinese caustic soda sample enterprises with a capacity of 200,000 tons or more is 84.6%, a week - on - week increase of 0.5%. The load in North and Northeast China has increased, while that in East, Central, and Southwest China has decreased due to device maintenance and production cuts [5]. - Demand: The alumina industry is likely to reduce production, and non - aluminum demand is in the off - season. Export orders are few, and the price difference between 50% and 32% caustic soda is still weak [5]. - Strategy: Unilateral: Valuation is suppressed, and high - production pressure persists in winter. Inter - period: 1 - 5 reverse spread. Inter - variety: None [5]. PVC - Supply: The high - production structure is hard to change in the short term. The 2026 spring and summer maintenance may be stronger than this year [7]. - Demand: In 2025, the PVC export market faces greater competition, and domestic demand related to real estate is weak [7]. - Strategy: Unilateral: Low - level shock, stop losses on short positions, with the upper pressure on the 01 contract at 4,600 and the lower support at 4,400. Inter - period: 1 - 5 reverse spread. Inter - variety: None [7]. 3.2 Caustic Soda Price and Spread - The basis of caustic soda 01 is strong, while the 1 - 5 month spread is weak [10]. - The export market still has support but is undergoing structural adjustment. The cumulative export volume of liquid caustic soda from January to September is 2.61 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 47.29%. It's expected to increase by at least 30% year - on - year in 2025, exceeding 4 million tons [14][18]. - The FOB price in Northeast Asia is continuously falling, currently at $380 per dry ton [19]. - The regional arbitrage space between Shandong and Guangdong is decreasing, and the price difference between flake and liquid caustic soda is declining. The price difference between 50% and 32% caustic soda is lower than the evaporation cost, suppressing the spot market [25][31]. 3.3 Caustic Soda Supply - The market structure shows rising production and inventory, being weak. The average capacity utilization rate of sample enterprises is 84.6%, a week - on - week increase of 0.5%. The factory inventory of fixed - liquid caustic soda sample enterprises is 427,600 tons (wet tons), a week - on - week increase of 6.32% and a year - on - year increase of 80.65% [37][38][40]. - Maintenance will significantly decrease after November. In 2025 and 2026, caustic soda production capacity will continue to be put into operation, with a growth rate of over 3% [43][45]. - In November, the large - scale industrial electricity price in Shandong has increased, raising caustic soda costs. Liquid chlorine has not provided significant subsidies, so the cost support for caustic soda is limited [46][50]. - Among the chlorine - consuming downstream industries, the production and profit of propylene oxide have recovered, the production of epichlorohydrin has recovered while the profit has declined, and the production of dichloromethane and chloroform has declined while the profit has recovered [53][57][62]. 3.4 Caustic Soda Demand - In 2025, the alumina production capacity has expanded significantly, with an expected new capacity of 9.5 million tons. In 2026, the new production capacity in the first quarter is relatively concentrated, with an expected annual increase of 13.9 million tons [66][68]. - Alumina's production, inventory, and profit are showing a downward trend, and there is an expectation of production cuts. The alumina industry has a negative feedback effect on caustic soda, and the high - profit hoarding of caustic soda in late 2024 is hard to replicate [70][76]. - The pulp industry's production capacity is expanding, and the demand is in the peak season, but the terminal profit is being compressed. The production capacity of the finished paper industry is stable, and the production of viscose staple fiber and the printing and dyeing industry are stable. The production of the water treatment industry is stable, and the production of the ternary precursor industry is increasing [83][90][94][96][98]. 3.5 PVC Price and Spread - The PVC basis is oscillating strongly, and the 1 - 5 month spread is oscillating weakly [104]. 3.6 PVC Supply and Demand - The PVC start - up rate has increased month - on - month. In November 2025, maintenance has decreased. By 2025, 2.2 million tons of new production capacity will be put into operation, and there will be no new production capacity in 2026 [110][114][115]. - The profit of the northwest integrated device is at a low level, and winter is the traditional off - season for chlor - alkali enterprise maintenance, weakening the impact of profit on supply [117]. - PVC production enterprises have slightly reduced inventory, while the social inventory is at a high level. The real - estate terminal demand has not significantly recovered, and the overall start - up rate of the PVC downstream has decreased month - on - month [121][126][132]. - From January to September, the cumulative export volume is 2.9216 million tons, with a month - on - month increase of 21.945% and a year - on - year increase of 24.53%. The cumulative year - on - year increase is 50.63%. India is still the most important export destination. The number of PVC warehouse receipts is continuously increasing [139][140].

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Propylene: ★☆☆ [1] - Polypropylene: ★☆☆ [1] - Plastic: ★☆☆ [1] - Pure Benzene: ☆☆☆ [1] - Styrene: ☆☆☆ [1] - PX: ☆☆☆ [1] - PTA: ★★★ [1] - Ethylene Glycol: ★☆☆ [1] - Short Fiber: ★★★ [1] - Bottle Chip: ☆☆☆ [1] - Methanol: ★★★ [1] - Urea: ☆☆☆ [1] - PVC: ★☆★ [1] - Caustic Soda: ★★★ [1] - Soda Ash: ★★★ [1] - Glass: ★★★ [1] Core Views - The futures of olefins and polyolefins are fluctuating widely, with supply - demand contradictions and price trends affected by factors like inventory, cost, and oil prices [2] - Pure benzene price rebounds with uncertain sustainability, and styrene's price is supported by short - term supply - demand improvement [3] - In the polyester industry, prices of PX, PTA, etc., are affected by multiple factors, and the supply of ethylene glycol is under pressure [5] - Methanol and urea markets have their own supply - demand situations and price trends [6] - PVC and caustic soda are in a weak operation state due to supply - demand imbalances [7] - Soda ash shows a long - term oversupply pattern, and glass has limited downward space [8] Summary by Directory Olefins - Polyolefins - Propylene enterprise inventory is low, but downstream polypropylene cost pressure and low international oil prices may affect the market [2] - Polyethylene and polypropylene futures close down, with supply - demand contradictions in both markets [2] Pure Benzene - Styrene - Pure benzene price rebounds with uncertain continuity, and styrene has short - term supply - demand support [3] Polyester - PTA price drops with the decline of PX and oil prices, and the supply of ethylene glycol is under pressure [5] Coal Chemical Industry - Methanol is in a weak operation, and urea may have an oscillating callback [6] Chlor - Alkali - PVC and caustic soda are in a weak state due to supply - demand imbalances [7] Soda Ash - Glass - Soda ash is in an oversupply situation, and glass has limited downward space [8]

氯碱日报 | 2025-11-21 期货价格及基差：SH主力收盘价2261元/吨（-4）；山东32%液碱基差177元/吨（+4）。 PVC再探底，关注装置检修动态 市场要闻与重要数据 PVC: 期货价格及基差：PVC主力收盘价4456元/吨（-36）；华东基差-36元/吨（-4）;华南基差14元/吨（-4）。 现货价格：华东电石法报价4420元/吨（-40）；华南电石法报价4470元/吨（-40）。 上游生产利润：兰炭价格800元/吨（+0）；电石价格2805元/吨（+0）；电石利润-125元/吨（+0）；PVC电石法生产毛 利-820元/吨（-50）；PVC乙烯法生产毛利-491元/吨（-26）；PVC出口利润7.4美元/吨（+2.6）。 PVC库存与开工：PVC厂内库存32.2万吨（-1.2）；PVC社会库存53.2万吨（-1.3）；PVC电石法开工率80.15%（+0.58%）； PVC乙烯法开工率71.31%（+1.18%）；PVC开工率77.48%（+0.77%）。 下游订单情况：生产企业预售量69.9万吨（-4.3）。 烧碱： 现货价格：山东32%液碱报价780元/吨（+0）；山东50%液碱报价1 ...

商 品 研 究 2025 年 11 月 21 日 PVC：不宜追空，低位震荡 | | 陈嘉昕 | 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0020481 | chenjiaxin2@gtht.com | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 【基本面跟踪】 | | | | | PVC 基本面数据 | | | | | 01合约期货价格 | 华东现货价格 | 基差 | 1-5月差 | | 4456 | 4420 | -36 | -311 | 资料来源：隆众资讯，国泰君安期货研究 【现货消息】 国内 PVC 盘中价格持续震荡下跌，受房产市场需求预期偏弱，相关大宗价格预期持续偏空，叠加现货 供应表现充足，加重市场短期看弱预期，现货受成本支撑表现坚挺，实盘成交重心降幅有限，华东地区电石 法五型现汇库提在 4400-4500 元/吨，乙烯法在 4500-4650 元/吨。 【市场状况分析】 PVC 期货跌至历史低位水平，且绝对估值处于低位，部分装置因亏损幅度较大，存在减产预期，因此短 期不宜追空。不过冬季仍是氯碱企业检修淡季，即使存在新增检修，其规模或有限，对 03 合约之前的期货 合约而言，仍然面临高开工、弱需求的格局 ...

烧碱山东江苏累库 市场要闻与重要数据 PVC: 期货价格及基差：PVC主力收盘价4492元/吨（-28）；华东基差-32元/吨（+8）;华南基差18元/吨（-2）。 现货价格：华东电石法报价4460元/吨（-20）；华南电石法报价4510元/吨（-30）。 氯碱日报 | 2025-11-20 烧碱库存与开工：液碱工厂库存40.22万吨（-1.26）；片碱工厂库存3.02万吨（+0.12）；烧碱开工率84.10%（-0.70%）。 烧碱下游开工：氧化铝开工率85.37%（+0.12%）；印染华东开工率66.55%（-1.51%）；粘胶短纤开工率89.50%（-0.10%）。 市场分析 PVC： PVC单边震荡偏弱。供应端本周有1套装置计划检修，多数当前检修恢复，预计供应量回升，新投产能逐步量产： 渤化9月20日已满产；甘肃耀望与浙江嘉化试车后低负荷运行，随着近期新投产装置的增加，PVC供应端仍呈现充 裕格局。需求端下游开工下降，低价采购好转，但整体采购情绪一般。出口侧印度BIS认证取消，近期市场对反倾 销税取消预期增加，出口仍以价换量，出口签单环比走强；9月27日印度发起对PVC壁纸的反倾销调查。社会库存 小幅 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - PVC shows a weak and volatile trend. Supply is expected to increase with new capacity coming online, while demand is generally weak. Attention should be paid to anti - dumping tax policies and real - estate development policies [3] - The spot price of caustic soda is stable with a slight decline. Supply decreases due to more device maintenance, and demand is complex with different situations in different sectors. Cost support exists, and the price may be supported by new alumina plants' procurement [3] Summary by Relevant Categories Market News and Important Data PVC - Futures price and basis: The closing price of the PVC main contract is 4,520 yuan/ton (-81), the East China basis is -40 yuan/ton (+61), and the South China basis is 20 yuan/ton (+31) [1] - Spot price: The East China calcium carbide method is quoted at 4,480 yuan/ton (-20), and the South China calcium carbide method is quoted at 4,540 yuan/ton (-50) [1] - Upstream production profit: The semi - coke price is 800 yuan/ton (+0), the calcium carbide price is 2,805 yuan/ton (+0), the calcium carbide profit is -125 yuan/ton (+0), the PVC calcium carbide method production gross profit is -820 yuan/ton (-50), the PVC ethylene method production gross profit is -491 yuan/ton (-26), and the PVC export profit is 2.3 US dollars/ton (+3.5) [1] - PVC inventory and start - up: The in - factory inventory of PVC is 32.2 tons (-1.2), the social inventory is 53.2 tons (-1.3), the calcium carbide method start - up rate is 79.57% (-0.60%), the ethylene method start - up rate is 70.13% (-7.10%), and the overall start - up rate is 76.71% (-2.57%) [1] - Downstream order situation: The pre - sales volume of production enterprises is 69.9 tons (-4.3) [1] Caustic Soda - Futures price and basis: The closing price of the SH main contract is 2,286 yuan/ton (-5), and the basis of 32% liquid caustic soda in Shandong is 152 yuan/ton (+5) [1] - Spot price: The price of 32% liquid caustic soda in Shandong is 780 yuan/ton (+0), and the price of 50% liquid caustic soda in Shandong is 1,250 yuan/ton (+0) [1] - Upstream production profit: The single - product profit of caustic soda in Shandong is 1,442 yuan/ton (+0), the comprehensive profit of chlor - alkali in Shandong (0.8 tons of liquid chlorine) is 736.8 yuan/ton (-39.2), the comprehensive profit of chlor - alkali in Shandong (1 ton of PVC) is -30.97 yuan/ton (+0.00), and the comprehensive profit of chlor - alkali in the northwest (1 ton of PVC) is 721.53 yuan/ton (+0.00) [2] - Caustic soda inventory and start - up: The liquid caustic soda factory inventory is 40.22 tons (-1.26), the flake caustic soda factory inventory is 3.02 tons (+0.12), and the caustic soda start - up rate is 84.10% (-0.70%) [2] - Caustic soda downstream start - up: The alumina start - up rate is 85.37% (+0.12%), the printing and dyeing start - up rate in East China is 66.55% (-1.51%), and the viscose staple fiber start - up rate is 89.50% (-0.10%) [2] Market Analysis PVC - Supply: One device is planned for maintenance this week, most currently under - maintenance devices are being restored, and new capacity is gradually being put into production. The supply is abundant [3] - Demand: The downstream start - up rate decreases, and the low - price procurement improves, but the overall procurement sentiment is average [3] - Export: The Indian BIS certification is cancelled, and the expectation of anti - dumping tax cancellation increases. Exports are still based on volume at the expense of price, and export orders are stronger month - on - month. However, on September 27th, India launched an anti - dumping investigation on PVC wallpapers [3] - Inventory: The social inventory is slightly decreased, but the absolute value of inventory is high. The PVC futures warehouse receipts are still at a high level, and the hedging pressure on the futures price persists [3] Caustic Soda - Supply: Device maintenance increases, and the start - up rate decreases slightly. Attention should be paid to the 100,000 - ton capacity release of Tangshan Sanyou [3] - Demand: The alumina factory in Shandong has a vehicle - pressing phenomenon, and the receiving price is lowered to 720 yuan/ton on the weekend, driving down the local spot price. The alumina start - up rate is slightly increased. The non - aluminum end is mainly for rigid demand procurement, and the demand will weaken in the off - season. The delivery price of liquid caustic soda in the East China region in November 2025 is around 850 - 915 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 15 - 60 yuan/ton [3] - Inventory: The high - strength caustic soda has support from low - price orders, the 50% caustic soda in Shandong is destocked, the 32% caustic soda is stocked up, and the overall inventory in Shandong is increased. The inventory in Jiangsu is generally destocked [3] - Price support: There are many expectations for the alumina factory to be put into production in Guangxi, but the production time is highly uncertain. The caustic soda tender is in progress, which may support the caustic soda price in the next two months [3] - Cost: The electricity price in Shandong will increase in November, the price of liquid chlorine is relatively weak, the chlor - alkali profit is at a low level compared with the same period, and cost support still exists [3] Strategy PVC - Single - side trading: Range - bound, and opportunistically conduct positive cash - and - carry arbitrage [4] - Inter - period trading: Wait - and - see [4] - Cross - variety trading: None [4] Caustic Soda - Single - side trading: Range - bound [5] - Inter - period trading: Go long on the SH12 - 01 spread when the price is low [5] - Cross - variety trading: None [5]

Group 1 - The chlor-alkali sector experienced a short-term surge, with Aystar Chemical hitting the daily limit up [1] - Other companies in the sector, including Shilong Industrial, Chlor-alkali Chemical, Tianyuan Co., Binhua Co., and Yinglite, also saw significant increases in their stock prices [1]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the news is that Yinglite's stock has shown significant growth, with an 8.34% increase on November 19, reaching a price of 10.13 yuan per share, and a total market capitalization of 3.993 billion yuan [1] - Yinglite's stock price has increased by 30.21% year-to-date, with notable gains of 10.23% in the last five trading days, 17.11% over the past 20 days, and 11.07% in the last 60 days [1] - The company operates in the basic chemical industry, focusing on products such as calcium carbide, calcium nitride, dicyandiamide, caustic soda, polyvinyl chloride resin, liquid chlorine, and hydrochloric acid, with PVC contributing 52.21% to its main business revenue [1] Group 2 - As of November 10, the number of Yinglite shareholders is 22,300, a decrease of 0.42% from the previous period, while the average circulating shares per person increased by 0.43% to 13,564 shares [2] - For the period from January to September 2025, Yinglite reported operating revenue of 1.28 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 6.97%, while the net profit attributable to shareholders was -247 million yuan, an increase of 4.07% year-on-year [2] - Yinglite has cumulatively distributed 608 million yuan in dividends since its A-share listing, with no dividends distributed in the last three years [3]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The utilization rate of caustic soda production capacity is expected to increase week - on - week. There is pressure on alumina enterprises to cut production due to environmental control expectations in the north and low production profits, but there are no signs of large - scale production cuts. Non - aluminum downstream may maintain rigid demand procurement. The price of liquid chlorine is strong, but the market price of 32% liquid caustic soda in Shandong is under pressure. The current main basis is still high, and the market's weak supply - demand expectation needs to be verified. Attention should be paid to whether there is a centralized production cut plan for alumina in December. Technically, SH2601 should pay attention to the support around 2250 [2][3] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The main closing price of caustic soda is 2286 yuan/ton, down 5 yuan; the main contract position is 149,936 lots, down 717 lots; the net position of the top 20 futures is - 17,632 lots, up 6338 lots; the main contract trading volume is 273,587 lots, down 118,158 lots. The closing price of the January contract is 2286 yuan/ton, down 5 yuan; the closing price of the May contract is 2421 yuan/ton, down 17 yuan [2] 3.2 Spot Market - The price of 32% ionic membrane caustic soda in Shandong is 780 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan; in Jiangsu is 910 yuan/ton, unchanged. The converted - to - 100% price of 32% caustic soda in Shandong is 2437.5 yuan/ton, down 31.25 yuan; the basis is 152 yuan/ton, up 5 yuan [2] 3.3 Upstream Situation - The mainstream price of raw salt in Shandong is 215 yuan/ton, unchanged; in the Northwest is 220 yuan/ton, unchanged. The price of thermal coal is 656 yuan/ton, unchanged [2] 3.4 Industry Situation - The mainstream price of liquid chlorine in Shandong is 50.5 yuan/ton, unchanged; in Jiangsu is 150 yuan/ton, down 75 yuan [2] 3.5 Downstream Situation - The spot price of viscose staple fiber is 13,060 yuan/ton, unchanged; the spot price of alumina is 2780 yuan/ton, unchanged [2] 3.6 Industry News - From November 7th to 13th, the utilization rate of China's caustic soda production capacity decreased by 0.7% week - on - week to 84.1%. From November 8th to 14th, the national alumina operating rate increased by 0.12% to 85.37%; from November 7th to 13th, the viscose staple fiber operating rate decreased by 0.1% to 89.50%, and the printing and dyeing operating rate decreased by 1.52% to 66.55%. As of November 13th, the inventory of liquid caustic soda factories was 402,200 tons, down 3.04% week - on - week. From November 7th to 13th, the profit of chlor - alkali in Shandong was 425 yuan/ton, down week - on - week [2]