Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. Core Views Methanol - The current market's core trading logic revolves around "high inventory + high imports." Port arrivals remain high, leading to significant inventory accumulation. Combined with a weakening trading atmosphere, prices are showing a downward trend. - Domestic supply is at a relatively high level year-on-year. Although there has been an increase in unplanned maintenance of some devices recently, there are expectations for some devices to resume production in early October. However, the inventory situation in the inland area is relatively healthy, providing some support for prices. - On the demand side, affected by the off - season of traditional downstream industries, overall demand is weak. In terms of valuation, upstream profits are at a neutral level, MTO profits have strengthened, and traditional downstream profits have slightly improved, resulting in an overall neutral valuation. - The current futures market is in a state of contention: on one hand, there is the real - world pressure of high inventory and weak basis; on the other hand, there is the expected support of overseas gas restrictions in the distant future. Attention should be paid to the emergence of an inventory inflection point [1]. Pure Benzene and Styrene - During the holiday, crude oil and naphtha prices both declined. Fundamentally, there are expectations for the resumption of production of some maintenance devices and the commissioning of new production capacity for pure benzene in the near future. Coupled with the expected increase in imports in the fourth quarter, domestic pure benzene supply is expected to remain at a relatively high level. - In terms of demand, most downstream pure benzene products are currently operating at a loss, and the secondary - downstream inventory of some products is high. There has been an increase in unplanned production cuts in some downstream industries, and there is significant uncertainty in demand growth, providing limited support. Overall, the supply - demand outlook for pure benzene remains loose, and the price driving force is weak. - For styrene, during the holiday, crude oil, naphtha, and styrene spot prices all declined. There are expectations for the commissioning of new devices and the resumption of production of previously shut - down devices after the holiday, so supply is expected to increase. Although there are still some devices planning to shut down, it is difficult to fully offset the pressure from new and resumed production. - On the demand side, there is rigid demand support during the downstream seasonal peak season, but the profits of some downstream industries are under pressure, and finished - product inventory remains high, so demand - side support may be limited. The supply - demand outlook for styrene is also loose, with high port inventory and weak cost - side support. After the holiday, styrene prices are expected to remain under pressure [3]. Polyolefins (LLDPE and PP) - PE maintenance has reached a peak, and the operating rate is gradually recovering. Inventory in the upstream and mid - stream has decreased this week. Future attention should be paid to the supply rhythm and import offers. - Before the holiday, the CP settlement price decreased, and PDH device profits were restored. Future attention should be paid to the resumption of PP devices. - On the demand side, there are no bright spots. After the holiday, there is significant inventory pressure. Coupled with the launch of new production capacity, there is a large pressure for inventory accumulation in the 01 contract, which limits the upside potential [5]. PVC and Caustic Soda - For caustic soda, most mid - and downstream enterprises were on holiday during the festival, and there was no obvious fluctuation in the spot market. Before the holiday, the futures market continued to weaken. After the National Day, as non - aluminum inventory is digested and decreases, there may be some purchasing willingness due to low prices. - The downstream inventory of the main alumina producers is high, and the willingness to replenish inventory is also low. The delivery volume of large Shandong manufacturers was high before the holiday, and there is an expectation of a downward adjustment in future purchase prices. Alumina production capacity is at a high level, and there is an over - supply problem. It is expected that production cuts may not occur until January. Therefore, there is still some support for short - term caustic soda demand. - From the perspective of the commissioning schedule, there will be a large number of alumina commissionings in the first quarter of next year. Therefore, there may be concentrated inventory replenishment in the fourth quarter of this year, which may tighten the spot liquidity. It is expected that there is limited downside space for caustic soda in the future, and attention should be paid to the downstream inventory replenishment rhythm. - For PVC, most mid - and downstream enterprises were on holiday during the festival, and spot trading was light. Before the holiday, the PVC futures market weakened and fluctuated. The supply - demand contradiction in the fundamentals is still difficult to resolve, and both futures and spot prices are weakening. - On the supply side, production remains at a high level, and the over - supply situation is prominent. On the demand side, there has been no obvious performance during the peak season, and the demand for profiles has continued to shrink, showing obvious characteristics of a non - peak season. - Overall, the willingness of upstream producers to hold inventory has decreased. However, exports have alleviated some of the over - supply pressure. The cost of raw material calcium carbide is on an upward trend, and ethylene prices are stable, providing bottom - level support for costs. After the holiday, attention should be paid to cost support. It is expected that there is limited downside space for PVC during the peak season, and attention should be paid to downstream demand performance [7]. Polyester Industry Chain - For PX, during the holiday, international oil prices fluctuated within a range. The main trading logic was that OPEC + announced only a slight increase in production in January, which was lower than market expectations, temporarily alleviating supply pressure. Currently, the domestic PX operating rate remains high. - On the demand side, due to continuously low PTA processing fees, the commissioning of new PTA devices has been delayed, and there are maintenance expectations for multiple PTA devices. The supply - demand outlook for PX in the fourth quarter is weak, and there is an expectation of PXN compression. The overall trend during the National Day holiday was weak. It is expected that PX will continue to fluctuate weakly after the holiday. - For PTA, due to continuously low processing fees, the commissioning of new PTA devices has been postponed, and there are maintenance expectations for multiple PTA devices. Some devices have reduced or stopped production due to the impact of typhoons, so PTA supply is expected to contract. - Coupled with the pre - holiday downstream inventory replenishment demand, the PTA basis has been slightly repaired, but the expected upward space is limited. The overall trend during the National Day holiday was weak. It is expected that the driving force for PTA after the holiday will be limited, and it will continue to fluctuate weakly. - For ethylene glycol, during the holiday, there were many foreign - owned vessel arrivals. It is expected that port inventory will increase significantly after the holiday. In addition, the restart of the Satellite Petrochemical device and the commissioning of the new Yulong Petrochemical device in October will keep domestic supply at a high level, and the supply - demand situation will gradually weaken. Therefore, it is expected that there will be upward pressure on ethylene glycol after the holiday. - For short - fiber, the supply - demand pattern is weak. Currently, short - fiber supply remains at a high level. On the demand side, the market replenished inventory before the holiday, and the inventory of directly - spun polyester short - fiber has been continuously decreasing. It is expected that short - fiber will be relatively more supported than raw materials in the short term, but the driving force is limited, and its rhythm will mainly follow the raw materials. - For bottle - grade polyester chips, there is no news of further production cuts in October. The fourth quarter is the traditional off - season for bottle - grade polyester chips. Considering the gradual cooling of the weather in October, the demand for soft drinks and catering will decline slightly, and the demand side provides insufficient support. Therefore, bottle - grade polyester chips are likely to enter a seasonal inventory - reduction channel, and PR will mainly follow the cost side, with upward pressure on processing fees [8]. Summaries by Relevant Catalogs Methanol Price and Spread - MA2601 closed at 2328 on September 30, down 31.00 or 1.31% from the previous day; MA2605 closed at 2362, down 26.00 or 1.09%. - The MA15 spread was - 34, down 5.00 or 17.24%; the Taicang basis was - 125, up 13.50 or - 9.78%. - The spot price of Inner Mongolia's northern line remained unchanged at 2090 yuan/ton; the spot price of Luoyang, Henan remained unchanged at 2250 yuan/ton; the spot price of Taicang Port was 2238 yuan/ton, down 12.50 or - 0.56%. - The regional spread between Taicang and Inner Mongolia's northern line was 148, down 12.50 or - 7.81%; the regional spread between Taicang and Luoyang was - 13, down 12.50 [1]. Inventory - Methanol enterprise inventory was 31.994%, down 2.05 or - 6.03% from the previous value; methanol port inventory was 149.2 tons, down 6.56 or - 4.21%; methanol social inventory was 181.2%, down 8.61 or - 4.54% [1]. Operating Rate - The upstream domestic enterprise operating rate was 74.27%, up 1.61 or 2.22%; the operating rate of a certain unspecified enterprise was 65.0%, down 3.85 or - 5.59%. - The production - sales rate of northwest enterprises was 127%, up 11.17 or 9.60%; the operating rate of downstream externally - purchased MTO devices was 82.46%, up 7.38 or 9.83%. - The operating rate of downstream formaldehyde was 32.7%, down 0.13 or - 0.40%; the operating rate of downstream acetic acid was 81.4%, down 0.97 or - 1.18%; the operating rate of downstream MTBE was 65.9%, up 2.12 or 3.32% [1]. Pure Benzene and Styrene Upstream Price and Spread - Brent crude oil (November) was $66.03 per barrel on September 30, down $1.94 or 2.9% from the previous day; WTI crude oil (October) was $63.45 per barrel, down $1.7 or 1.7%. - CFR Japan naphtha was $592 per ton, down $12 or 2.5%; CFR Northeast Asia ethylene was $810 per ton, down $2 or 0.6%. - The pure benzene - naphtha spread was 123, up 7 or 6.3%; the ethylene - naphtha spread was 208, up 10 or 4.9%. - The pure benzene (Sinopec East China listed price) was 5750 yuan/ton, unchanged; the pure benzene East China spot price was 5770 yuan/ton, down 1.5% [3]. Styrene - Related Price and Spread - The styrene East China spot price was 6830 yuan/ton on September 30, down 80 or 1.2%; EB futures 2510 was 6734 yuan/ton, down 2.1%; EB futures 2511 was 6932 yuan/ton, down 97 or 1.4%. - The EB basis (10) was 96, up 200.0%; the EB10 - EB11 spread was - 101, down 87.0% [3]. Downstream Cash Flow - The phenol cash flow was - 353 yuan/ton on September 30, up 13.6%; the caprolactam cash flow (single product) was - 1920 yuan/ton, up 4.5%; the aniline cash flow was 630 yuan/ton, up 13.9%; the EPS cash flow was - 130 yuan/ton, up 18.8%; the PS cash flow was 220 yuan/ton, up 57.1%; the ABS cash flow was 140 yuan/ton, up 121.9% [3]. Inventory and Operating Rate - The pure benzene Jiangsu port inventory was 10.60 tons on September 30, down 0.10 or - 0.9%; the styrene Jiangsu port inventory was 19.75 tons, up 1.10 or 5.9%. - The Asian pure benzene operating rate was 79.0%, unchanged; the domestic pure benzene operating rate was 79.3%, up 0.9% or 1.2%; the domestic hydro - benzene operating rate was 64.0%, up 6.8%; the styrene operating rate was 73.2%, down 0.2% [3]. Polyolefins Price and Spread - The L2601 closing price was 7153 on September 30, down 28 or 0.39%; the L2509 closing price was 7220, down 19 or 0.26%. - The PP2601 closing price was 6852, down 51 or 0.74%; the PP2509 closing price was 6880, down 34 or 0.49%. - The L2509 - 2601 spread was 67, up 9 or 15.52%; the PP2509 - 2601 spread was 28, up 17 or 154.55% [5]. Inventory and Operating Rate - The PE enterprise inventory was 38.3 tons on September 30, down 7.56 or - 16.50%; the PE social inventory was 52.5 tons, down 1.03 or - 1.93%. - The PP enterprise inventory was 52.0 tons, down 3.03 or - 5.50%; the PP trader inventory was 18.7 tons, down 0.11 or - 0.58%. - The PE device operating rate was 81.8%, up 1.48 or 1.85%; the PE downstream weighted operating rate was 44.1%, up 1.21 or 2.82%. - The PP device operating rate was 75.5%, up 0.63 or 0.8%; the PP powder operating rate was 35.5%, up 1.46 or 4.3%; the downstream weighted operating rate was 51.9%, up 0.40 or 0.8% [5]. PVC and Caustic Soda Spot and Futures Price - The Shandong 32% liquid caustic soda converted - to - 100% price was 2500.0 yuan/ton on September 30, unchanged; the Shandong 50% liquid caustic soda converted - to - 100% price was 2600.0 yuan/ton, unchanged. - The East China calcium carbide - based PVC market price was 4700.0 yuan/ton, down 30.0 or - 0.6%; the East China ethylene - based PVC market price was 5000.0 yuan/ton, unchanged [7]. Overseas Quotation and Export Profit - The FOB East China port price of caustic soda was $400.0 per ton on September 25, unchanged; the export profit was 164.7 yuan/ton, down 58.7 or - 26.3%. - The CFR Southeast Asia price of PVC was $650.0 per ton on September 25, unchanged; the CFR India price was $730.0 per ton, unchanged; the FOB Tianjin Port calcium carbide - based PVC price was $605.0 per ton, up 5.0 or 0.8%; the export profit was 50.2 yuan/ton, up 72.6 or 323.8% [7]. Supply and Demand - The caustic soda industry operating rate was 86.8% on September 26, up 1.4 or 1.6%; the Shandong sample caustic soda operating rate was 85.6%, up 0.5 or 0.6%. - The PVC total operating rate was 76.1%, up 0.7 or 0.9%; the profit of externally - purchased calcium carbide - based PVC was - 896.0 yuan/ton, down 90.0 or - 11.2%; the northwest integrated profit was 43.3 yuan/ton, down 96.0 or - 68.9%. - The alumina industry operating rate was 83.7% on September 19, unchanged; the rubber staple fiber industry operating rate was 89.8%, up 0.3 or 0.3%; the printing and dyeing industry operating rate was 66.2%, up 0.4 or 0.6%. - The Longzhong sample pipe material operating rate was 40.4% on September 26, up 1.3 or 3.3%; the Longzhong sample profile operating rate was 38.9%, down 0.5 or - 1.3%; the Long

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core View of the Report The market trading is average, and the chlor - alkali market shows a weak and fluctuating trend. PVC supply is abundant, downstream consumption is limited, and the export side shows some resilience. The 32% alkali spot price of caustic soda has been continuously reduced, the 50% alkali orders have improved, and the inventory situation is complex, with attention needed on downstream procurement and production capacity expansion [1][3]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Market News and Important Data PVC - Futures price and basis: The closing price of the PVC main contract is 4,896 yuan/ton (-1), the East China basis is -176 yuan/ton (+1), and the South China basis is -86 yuan/ton (+1) [1]. - Spot price: The East China calcium carbide - based PVC is quoted at 4,720 yuan/ton (+0), and the South China calcium carbide - based PVC is quoted at 4,810 yuan/ton (-10) [1]. - Upstream production profit: The semi - coke price is 690 yuan/ton (+0), the calcium carbide price is 2,890 yuan/ton (+0), the calcium carbide profit is 48 yuan/ton (+0), the calcium carbide - based PVC production gross profit is -784 yuan/ton (-127), the ethylene - based PVC production gross profit is -645 yuan/ton (+7), and the PVC export profit is 7.1 dollars/ton (+1.4) [1]. - Inventory and operation rate: The PVC in - factory inventory is 31.8 million tons (+1.2), the social inventory is 53.5 million tons (+0.0), the calcium carbide - based PVC operation rate is 76.97% (+0.06%), the ethylene - based PVC operation rate is 74.12% (+2.12%), and the overall PVC operation rate is 76.11% (+0.68%) [1]. - Downstream orders: The pre - sales volume of production enterprises is 75.9 million tons (+0.4) [1]. Caustic Soda - Futures price and basis: The closing price of the SH main contract is 2,515 yuan/ton (-13), and the basis of 32% liquid caustic soda in Shandong is -15 yuan/ton (+13) [1]. - Spot price: The price of 32% liquid caustic soda in Shandong is 800 yuan/ton (+0), and the price of 50% liquid caustic soda in Shandong is 1,300 yuan/ton (+0) [1]. - Upstream production profit: The single - variety profit of caustic soda in Shandong is 1,509 yuan/ton (+0), the comprehensive profit of chlor - alkali in Shandong (0.8 tons of liquid chlorine) is 725.8 yuan/ton (+0.0), the comprehensive profit of chlor - alkali in Shandong (1 ton of PVC) is 159.78 yuan/ton (-20.00), and the comprehensive profit of chlor - alkali in the Northwest (1 ton of PVC) is 1,381.75 yuan/ton (+0.00) [2]. - Inventory and operation rate: The liquid caustic soda factory inventory is 39.12 million tons (+1.29), the flake caustic soda factory inventory is 2.08 million tons (-0.10), and the caustic soda operation rate is 82.50% (+0.60%) [2]. - Downstream operation rate: The alumina operation rate is 85.95% (-0.28%), the printing and dyeing operation rate in East China is 66.15% (+0.39%), and the viscose staple fiber operation rate is 89.82% (+0.30%) [2]. Market Analysis PVC - The PVC market fluctuates with the macro - environment. The supply is abundant with planned maintenance in some areas and new production capacity ramping up. Although enterprises are actively pre - selling, downstream operation rates are generally slightly down, and consumption is limited. The export side shows some resilience, but the PVC wallpaper anti - dumping investigation in India may have an impact on exports [3]. Caustic Soda - The spot price of 32% caustic soda has been continuously reduced, the 50% caustic soda orders have improved, and the price has stabilized. Supply may increase slightly, and demand from the alumina industry is stable but with high - price sales difficulties. There are differences in inventory changes, and attention should be paid to downstream procurement, production capacity expansion, and cost support [3]. Strategy PVC - Unilateral: Hold [4]. - Inter - delivery spread: Sell the near - term contract and buy the far - term contract for V01 - V05 when the spread is high [4]. - Inter - commodity spread: No strategy [4]. Caustic Soda - Unilateral: Hold [5]. - Inter - delivery spread: Buy the near - term contract and sell the far - term contract for SH01 - SH05 when the spread is low, paying attention to downstream procurement rhythm and alumina capacity expansion progress [5]. - Inter - commodity spread: No strategy [5].

Company Overview - Xinjin Road Group Co., Ltd. is located in Deyang, Sichuan Province, and was established on April 18, 1992, with its listing date on May 7, 1993. The company primarily engages in the production and operation of chlor-alkali chemicals and plastic products [1][2]. - The main business revenue composition includes resin products (41.61%), alkali products (38.43%), and others (19.97%) [1]. Stock Performance - As of September 30, Xinjin Road's stock price increased by 2.03%, reaching 5.54 CNY per share, with a total market capitalization of 3.593 billion CNY. The trading volume was 50.9181 million CNY, with a turnover rate of 1.53% [1]. - Year-to-date, Xinjin Road's stock price has risen by 53.89%, with a 7.78% increase over the last five trading days, a 2.97% increase over the last 20 days, and a 9.06% increase over the last 60 days [1]. Financial Performance - For the first half of 2025, Xinjin Road reported an operating income of 816 million CNY, a year-on-year decrease of 16.27%. The net profit attributable to the parent company was -67.036 million CNY, a year-on-year decrease of 15.16% [2]. - The company has cumulatively distributed 124 million CNY in dividends since its A-share listing, with no dividends distributed in the last three years [3]. Shareholder Information - As of September 10, Xinjin Road had 53,600 shareholders, a decrease of 17.24% from the previous period. The average number of circulating shares per shareholder increased by 20.83% to 11,312 shares [2]. Market Activity - Xinjin Road has appeared on the "Dragon and Tiger List" 10 times this year, with the most recent appearance on May 27, where it recorded a net buy of -61.1593 million CNY. The total buy amounted to 122 million CNY, accounting for 8.89% of total trading volume, while total sales reached 183 million CNY, accounting for 13.36% of total trading volume [1].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Group 2: Core Views of the Report - In the fourth quarter, the overall supply - demand contradiction of caustic soda is limited, and prices may be more affected by phased restocking demand. High开工 and high production are expected to continue, and long - term supply faces pressure. New alumina projects support demand, but alumina's surplus fundamentals and low prices cap the upside of caustic soda prices. Export expectations are cautiously optimistic, and costs are supported. Attention should be paid to phased supply - demand mismatches [1]. - The price of caustic soda is expected to fluctuate widely in the range of 2,400 - 2,800 yuan/ton [1]. Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs Chapter 2: Third - Quarter Market Review of Caustic Soda - In the third quarter, caustic soda showed a wide - range oscillation pattern, with prices mainly in the range of 2,400 - 2,800 yuan/ton, affected by policy expectations and fundamental changes [1]. - From late June to early July, the market rose strongly, supported by stable spot prices and then driven by policy expectations. From late July to early August, the market corrected due to eased policy statements, cooled market sentiment, and weakened spot supply - demand. In mid - August, the market rebounded due to marginal improvement in fundamentals. From late August to mid - September, the market declined again after the end of phased restocking [2]. Chapter 3: Core Concerns of Caustic Soda - Caustic soda exports: As of now, exports this year are 860,000 tons more than the same period last year. Annual exports are expected to reach about 4.1 million tons, accounting for 10% - 11% of apparent demand. However, August export data was below expectations, and there are rumors of new energy process adjustments affecting demand [16]. - Alumina production and alkali - stocking rhythm: Many alumina capacities are to be put into production from the end of 2025 to early 2026, supporting caustic soda demand. But alumina's surplus fundamentals and low prices may limit caustic soda's upside and affect alumina's production progress [17]. - Supply policies and costs: Chlor - alkali comprehensive profits are high, so the possibility of active supply - side production cuts is small. However, policy expectations may have an unexpected impact on supply and cost - side raw material pricing [18]. Chapter 4: Valuation Feedback and Supply - Demand Outlook of Caustic Soda 4.1 High Profits, Continued Supply Pressure of Caustic Soda - From January to September, caustic soda production totaled 31.58 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 2.1%. This year's new caustic soda capacity is estimated to be around 2.4 million tons, with a capacity growth rate of 4.8% - 4.9%. By the end of the year, the capacity base may rise to 51 - 52 million tons. But actual implementation is less optimistic, with few certain new capacities in the fourth quarter [19]. - High profits limit caustic soda price increases, but there have been periods of high profits in history due to short - term supply - demand mismatches [22]. 4.2 Waiting for Alumina Production to Materialize - From the end of 2025 to the first quarter of 2026, there are still many alumina capacities to be put into production, creating caustic soda stocking demand in the fourth quarter. However, alumina's surplus situation and low prices limit caustic soda's upside. Non - aluminum demand is fragmented, and short - term restocking at low prices has some price support but does not change the supply - demand balance [25]. 4.3 Exports are Key - From January to August 2025, caustic soda exports were 2.68 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 47.16%, due to increased Southeast Asian demand and domestic price advantages. In the short - to - medium term, export expectations remain high, but there are rumors of overseas process adjustments affecting demand. In October, export orders improved, supporting demand [39][40].

Consumption - Automotive retail and wholesale volumes continue to rise, but year-on-year growth has marginally declined due to the low base effect from the Mid-Autumn Festival[6] - Service consumption has weakened, particularly in urban areas affected by typhoon weather, leading to a significant drop in subway ridership in first-tier cities[7] - Food and beverage prices have shown a slight recovery, with agricultural product wholesale prices increasing, but the year-on-year decline continues to widen due to high base effects from 2024[6] Investment - As of September 27, 2025, the cumulative issuance of special bonds reached CNY 3.71 trillion, with CNY 446.52 billion issued in September alone, marking the fastest issuance pace since 2020[19] - Real estate sales have seen a slight seasonal improvement, but the absolute values remain at historical lows, with new home sales in 30 cities showing a marginal year-on-year decline[19] - The asphalt construction rate has risen significantly, reaching a yearly high, while cement and steel consumption indicate slower construction progress[19] Trade and Export - Domestic export freight rates have decreased by 2.9% month-on-month, with container freight rates from Shanghai and Ningbo dropping by 7% and 8.5% respectively[27] - The manufacturing PMI readings for the US and Europe in September were 52.0 and 49.5, indicating a slight decline in overseas manufacturing activity, which may weaken demand for imports from China[27] Production and Inventory - Most industries are experiencing a decline in production, with coal consumption in coastal provinces showing a seasonal decrease[29] - Inventory levels are primarily decreasing, with significant reductions in coal inventories at ports due to increased downstream purchasing ahead of the holiday[37] Price Trends - The Consumer Price Index (CPI) has shown a slight recovery, with service prices in transportation, education, and healthcare increasing year-on-year, while clothing and housing prices have declined[42] - Industrial product prices are mixed, with the South China price index falling by 0.3% month-on-month, while cement prices increased by 2.5%[42] Liquidity - The central bank's net cash injection through reverse repos was CNY 640.6 billion last week, with an additional CNY 300 billion in medium-term lending facility (MLF) operations, totaling CNY 880.6 billion to support liquidity[44] - The US dollar index has risen significantly, reflecting a stronger US economy and impacting the USD/CNY exchange rate, which increased from 7.1125 to 7.1345[44]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The market continues to trade on the Fed's interest rate cut path, and attention should be paid to the latest US non - farm payroll data. During the National Day holiday, the market is shipping based on previous orders, and enterprises may face some pressure. The price of liquid caustic soda in the East China region is expected to remain stable, while in the Shandong market, due to the approaching holiday, there is no obvious positive news on the demand side, and the inventory of local alkali plants is likely to increase, with the possibility of price cuts in the near future. The spot trend in Shandong is weak, demand is lower than expected, and the futures price is running weakly. Attention should be paid to whether it can stop falling and stabilize after the holiday. The recommended trading strategy is to set the upper reference pressure level for the caustic soda 2601 contract at 2700 yuan/ton and the lower support level at 2400 yuan/ton [4]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Market Review - **Spot Market**: The report presents multiple charts showing the price trends of caustic soda in different regions (Shandong, Jiangsu, Zhejiang), the price differences between different types of caustic soda (32% and 50% ion - membrane caustic soda, flake caustic soda), and the price relationships between caustic soda and related products (such as raw salt, liquid chlorine). The data is sourced from Wind and Mysteel. In the week from 20250919 - 20250925, the price of 32% ion - membrane caustic soda in Shandong remained at 800 yuan/ton, the price of 50% ion - membrane caustic soda decreased by 2.36% to 1270 yuan/ton, the price of 98% flake caustic soda in the Northwest remained at 3230 yuan/ton, and the price of liquid chlorine in Shandong remained at - 150 yuan/ton. The price of alumina in Shandong decreased by 1.86% to 2950 yuan/ton [10][13][18]. - **Futures Market**: The report shows the price trends of caustic soda futures and its comparison with other related futures (soda ash, alumina, PVC), as well as the relationship between the caustic soda futures price and the number of warehouse receipts. The data is sourced from Wind and Mysteel [16]. 3.2 Market Analysis - **Supply Side: Production and Operating Rate**: In the week of 20250919 - 0925, the average capacity utilization rate of Chinese caustic soda sample enterprises with a capacity of 200,000 tons and above was 82.5%, a week - on - week increase of 0.6%. The load in the Northwest decreased due to new device maintenance, while the load in North and East China increased after device maintenance. It is estimated that the weekly capacity utilization rate of caustic soda this week will be around 85.9%, and the weekly output will be around 845,700 tons. The report also lists the maintenance plans of multiple enterprises [22][23]. - **Downstream Demand**: For alumina, the current spot supply in northern China is relatively loose, while the market - available spot in Henan and Southwest China is still tight. The supply of domestic ore remains tight, and some enterprises continue to purchase imported ore. The production is relatively stable, but the narrowing profit due to falling prices makes enterprises more willing to negotiate lower prices for raw materials. It is expected that the domestic alumina price will continue to adjust weakly in the short term, with a price range of 2850 - 3100 yuan/ton. In the week of 20250919 - 20250925, the capacity utilization rate of the viscose staple fiber industry was 89.82%, a week - on - week increase of 0.3% [27]. - **Inventory**: As of September 25, 2025, the factory inventory of fixed liquid caustic soda sample enterprises with a capacity of 200,000 tons and above was 391,200 wet tons, a week - on - week increase of 3.4% and a year - on - year increase of 26.26%. The storage capacity ratio of liquid caustic soda sample enterprises was 20.78%, a week - on - week increase of 0.64%. The storage capacity ratios in the Northwest, North, Central, and East China increased, while those in the Northeast, South, and Southwest decreased. In the North China region, the demand for 32% caustic soda in Shandong was poor, and the inventory increased; the high - concentration caustic soda inventory decreased. In Tianjin and Hebei, the inventory increased due to increased supply. In the South China region, the inventory decreased due to reduced supply. In the Central China region, the inventory increased due to increased supply. In the East China region, the inventory increased slightly due to increased supply. In the Northwest region, the inventory in Gansu and Ningxia decreased due to maintenance, while the inventory in Shaanxi increased due to poor sales. In the Southwest region, the inventory decreased due to active pre - holiday stocking [30]. - **Liquid Chlorine**: As of September 25, 2025, the average price of liquid chlorine in Shandong increased by 32.26% to - 150 yuan/ton. The price increase was affected by the reduced supply in Jiangsu, and then remained stable. The supply and demand in Shandong did not change significantly, and downstream procurement was stable. In Hebei and the Northeast, the load of chlor - alkali enterprises increased, and downstream pre - holiday stocking was active, which supported the price of liquid chlorine. As of September 26, 2025, the capacity utilization rate of Chinese PVC was 76.96%, a week - on - week decrease of 2.98%. It is estimated that the capacity utilization rate this week will increase to 82.17% due to the increased operation of some enterprises. In the week of 20250919 - 20250925, the average weekly profit of Shandong chlor - alkali enterprises was 258 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 21.34%. The theoretical production cost of caustic soda remained stable, the caustic soda price decreased significantly, the average weekly price of liquid chlorine increased, and the chlor - alkali profit decreased [33][34].

Group 1: Report Title and Date - The report is titled "Caustic Soda October 2025 Monthly Report" and was released on September 29, 2025 [4][16][22] Group 2: Fundamental Situation 1. Market Data Charts - Include charts on caustic soda's September price trend (yuan/ton), Shandong alumina large - scale plant's liquid caustic soda delivery volume (tons), purchase price (yuan/ton), Shandong liquid caustic soda wet - ton inventory (tons), Shandong 32% caustic soda spot market price (yuan/ton), alumina weekly start - up rate (%), alumina price trend (yuan/ton), caustic soda monthly export volume (tons), export volume to Australia (tons), export volume to Indonesia (tons), export profit (yuan/ton), monthly production volume (tons), monthly start - up rate (%), weekly start - up rate (%), weekly production volume (tons), Shandong caustic soda profit (yuan/ton), and Shandong chlor - alkali comprehensive profit (yuan/degree) [12][14][20][27][30][35][39][42][43][45][47] 2. Capacity Data Domestic Alumina New Capacity - In 2025, the total new capacity is 1080 tons, with projects like Shandong's Weiqiao Zhanhua adding 200 tons, Shandong's Weiqiao replacement reducing 250 tons, etc. In 2026, the total new capacity is 1270 tons, including projects in Guangxi and Inner Mongolia [28] Overseas Alumina New Capacity - From 2025 to 2026, the total new capacity is 925 tons, including projects in Indonesia, India, and Vietnam [37] Caustic Soda New Device Capacity - In 2025, the total new capacity is 210 tons, with projects from companies such as Qingdao Gulf, Tianjin Bohua Chemical Development, etc. [50] Group 3: Market Outlook and Strategy Recommendation - The report does not provide specific content on market outlook and strategy recommendation in the given text.

1. Chlor - Alkali Industry Report Industry Investment Rating Not provided Core Viewpoints - For caustic soda, in Q4, the downside space is limited. There may be concentrated stocking behavior in Q4 due to alumina's planned production in Q1 next year. Short - term demand has support, but future alumina purchase prices may be lowered [2]. - For PVC, in Q4, the downside space is limited during the peak season. The supply is in an excess pattern, and the demand in Q3 did not show well. Exports have alleviated some excess pressure, and attention should be paid to cost support and downstream demand [2]. Summary by Catalog - **Prices**: On September 26, compared with September 25, the prices of some caustic soda and PVC products changed. For example, the price of Shandong 32% liquid caustic soda (converted to 100%) remained unchanged at 2500 yuan/ton, while the price of East China calcium carbide - based PVC decreased by 20 yuan/ton to 4740 yuan/ton [2]. - **Supply**: The overall start - up rate of the PVC industry increased by 0.7 percentage points to 76.1% on September 26 compared with September 19. The start - up rate data of the caustic soda industry was not available [2]. - **Demand**: The start - up rates of some downstream industries of caustic soda and PVC changed slightly. For example, the start - up rate of the alumina industry remained unchanged at 83.7%, and the start - up rate of the Longzhong sample pipe industry increased by 1.3 percentage points to 40.4% [2]. - **Inventory**: As of September 25, compared with September 18, the inventory of liquid caustic soda in East China factories and Shandong increased, while the total social inventory of PVC remained unchanged at 53.5 million tons [2]. 2. Polyester Industry Chain Report Industry Investment Rating Not provided Core Viewpoints - For PX, in Q4, the supply - demand is expected to be weak, and the price will be under pressure. Strategies include shorting on rebounds and reverse - arbitraging on high spreads [6]. - For PTA, in Q4, the supply - demand is expected to be weak, and it will follow the cost side to fluctuate weakly. Strategies include shorting on rebounds and reverse - arbitraging on the TA1 - 5 spread [6]. - For ethylene glycol, in Q4, it is expected to enter the inventory accumulation stage, and the price is under pressure. Strategies include shorting EG01 and reverse - arbitraging on the EG1 - 5 spread [6]. - For short - fiber, in the short - term, the price may be supported, but if the terminal demand in October cannot follow up, the supply - demand will turn to an expected pattern, and the processing fee is expected to be compressed [6]. - For bottle - chips, in Q4, it is likely to enter the seasonal inventory accumulation stage, and the processing fee is under pressure. Strategies include following the PTA for single - side trading and shorting the processing fee on high spreads [6]. Summary by Catalog - **Prices**: On September 26, compared with September 25, the prices of various products in the polyester industry chain changed. For example, the price of POY150/48 increased by 75 yuan/ton to 6605 yuan/ton, and the price of PTA East China spot increased by 5 yuan/ton to 4590 yuan/ton [6]. - **Supply - demand and Inventory**: In Q4, the supply of PX and domestic ethylene glycol is expected to be high, while the demand of downstream products such as PTA and bottle - chips is in the off - season. The inventory of MEG ports and domestic urea is also in a state of change [6]. - **Start - up Rate**: The start - up rates of various industries in the polyester industry chain changed weekly. For example, the start - up rate of Asian PX decreased by 0.2 percentage points to 78.0%, and the start - up rate of domestic PTA remained unchanged at 76.8% [6]. 3. Polyolefin Industry Report Industry Investment Rating Not provided Core Viewpoints - For LLDPE and PP, currently, the inventory of PE and PP has decreased. However, after the holiday, there is a large inventory pressure, and with new capacity coming on - stream, the inventory accumulation pressure of the 01 contract is large, which limits the upside space [9]. Summary by Catalog - **Prices**: On September 26, compared with September 25, the prices of L2601, PP2601 and other contracts decreased slightly. For example, the closing price of L2601 decreased by 10 yuan/ton to 7159 yuan/ton [9]. - **Inventory**: As of the relevant update time, the enterprise inventory and social inventory of PE and PP decreased. For example, the PE enterprise inventory decreased by 3.2 million tons to 45.8 million tons [9]. - **Start - up Rate**: The start - up rates of PE and PP devices increased. For example, the start - up rate of PE devices increased by 1.48 percentage points to 81.8%, and the start - up rate of PP devices increased by 0.63 percentage points to 75.5% [9]. 4. Methanol Industry Report Industry Investment Rating Not provided Core Viewpoints - In the short - term, methanol will continue to fluctuate. The supply side has a balance between the resumption of some domestic devices and the expected reduction of overseas supply. The demand side is weak, and attention should be paid to overseas device operation and domestic demand realization [39]. Summary by Catalog - **Prices**: On September 26, compared with September 25, the closing price of MA2601 increased slightly, and the basis of Taicang changed. For example, the closing price of MA2601 increased by 1 yuan to 2356 yuan/ton [39]. - **Inventory**: As of the Wednesday update, the enterprise inventory, port inventory and social inventory of methanol decreased. For example, the methanol enterprise inventory decreased by 2.05 million tons to 31.994 million tons [39]. - **Start - up Rate**: On September 26, compared with the previous value, the start - up rate of domestic upstream enterprises increased, while the start - up rate of overseas enterprises decreased. For example, the start - up rate of domestic upstream enterprises increased by 1.61 percentage points to 74.27% [39]. 5. Pure Benzene - Styrene Industry Report Industry Investment Rating Not provided Core Viewpoints - For pure benzene, the supply is expected to be high due to the resumption of some devices and new capacity coming on - stream. The demand support is limited, and the price driving force is weak. BZ2603 should follow the benzene - styrene and oil prices to fluctuate [42]. - For styrene, the supply is expected to increase, and the demand support may be limited. The price is still under pressure. EB11 should be shorted on rebounds, and the EB11 - BZ11 spread can be widened at low levels, but the driving force is limited [42]. Summary by Catalog - **Prices**: On September 26, compared with September 25, the prices of pure benzene and styrene - related products changed. For example, the price of pure benzene East China spot decreased by 35 yuan/ton to 5865 yuan/ton, and the price of styrene East China spot decreased by 20 yuan/ton to 6910 yuan/ton [42]. - **Inventory**: As of the weekly update, the inventory of pure benzene in Jiangsu ports decreased, while the inventory of styrene in Jiangsu ports increased. For example, the pure benzene inventory in Jiangsu ports decreased by 2.7 million tons to 10.7 million tons [42]. - **Start - up Rate**: The start - up rates of various industries in the pure benzene and styrene industry chain changed. For example, the start - up rate of domestic pure benzene increased by 0.9 percentage points to 79.3%, and the start - up rate of styrene decreased by 0.2 percentage points to 73.2% [42]. 6. Urea Industry Report Industry Investment Rating Not provided Core Viewpoints - The urea futures price fluctuates downward. The supply - demand is in a loose pattern, with high domestic production, weak demand, and a weak international price. The export policy adjustment and new Indian tender have not effectively boosted market confidence [50]. Summary by Catalog - **Prices**: On September 26, compared with September 25, the prices of urea futures contracts decreased slightly. For example, the closing price of the 01 contract decreased by 5 yuan/ton to 1669 yuan/ton [46]. - **Supply - demand and Inventory**: The daily and weekly production of urea increased, and the inventory in factories increased, while the port inventory decreased. For example, the domestic daily urea production decreased by 0.1 million tons to 19.94 million tons, and the domestic factory inventory increased by 5.29 million tons to 121.82 million tons [50]. 7. Crude Oil Industry Report Industry Investment Rating Not provided Core Viewpoints - In Q4, oil prices are likely to maintain a wide - range oscillating pattern. In early October, they may be strong due to geopolitical risks and low inventory. In the middle, they may face pressure due to increased production and inventory recovery. In the later period, they may trend weakly due to loose supply and weakened geopolitical risks. It is recommended to use a band - trading strategy for single - side trading, a positive - arbitrage strategy for arbitrage, and wait for opportunities to widen the volatility in the options market [52]. Summary by Catalog - **Prices**: On September 29, compared with September 26, the prices of Brent, WTI, SC and other crude oil products decreased. For example, the price of Brent decreased by 0.56 US dollars/barrel to 69.57 US dollars/barrel [52]. - **Spreads**: The spreads of Brent M1 - M3, WTI M1 - M3, SC M1 - M3 and other indicators changed. For example, the WTI M1 - M3 spread decreased by 2.82 US dollars/barrel to 0.92 US dollars/barrel [52].

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating No investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Views - **Caustic Soda**: In Q3, caustic soda showed a wide - range oscillation. After the non - aluminum restocking ended, the demand was mainly for rigid needs. The main downstream, alumina, had high inventory and low restocking willingness. However, due to the planned alumina capacity expansion in Q1 2025, there might be concentrated restocking in Q4 2024, limiting the downside space of caustic soda. The downstream restocking rhythm needs to be tracked [3]. - **PVC**: In Q3, the PVC market was in a continuous decline. The supply was at a high level with an obvious surplus, and the demand in the peak season was weak. Although exports alleviated some of the surplus pressure, the cost of raw materials provided bottom - level support. In Q4, the cost support should be focused on, and the downside space during the peak season is limited. Attention should be paid to the downstream demand performance [4]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Caustic Soda - **Price and Market Dynamics**: The price of caustic soda fluctuated widely in Q3. Factors such as macro - policies, supply - demand changes in the main production areas, and the price of liquid chlorine affected the price. The market was worried about the subsequent supply return and the weakening of downstream demand [9]. - **Supply**: The industry's operating rate declined slightly, and Shandong's caustic soda plants continued to accumulate inventory in Q3. As of September 24, the inventory of 32% liquid caustic soda in expanded sample enterprises in East China and Shandong increased compared with September 17 [22][28]. - **Downstream Demand** - **Alumina**: From the end of 2024 to 2025, the planned alumina capacity to be put into production is 12.3 million tons (including 2 million tons of replacement), with an estimated annual production increase of about 6%. The new alumina projects will increase the demand for caustic soda by about 800,000 tons per year. In Q4 2024, there may be restocking due to the planned capacity expansion in Q1 2025 [30][33]. - **Non - aluminum**: The printing and dyeing operating rate increased seasonally, but the pre - holiday restocking has ended [52]. - **Export**: The export volume decreased in August, but the estimated export profit increased again in September [58]. PVC - **Price and Market Dynamics**: In Q3, the PVC futures and spot prices both declined. The supply - demand relationship lacked positive drivers, and the macro - atmosphere was poor, leading to a continuous decline in the market [65]. - **Profit**: The industry's profit declined quarter - on - quarter in Q3, with both the ethylene - based and calcium - carbide - based production methods facing profit pressure [71]. - **Supply**: The production volume was high in Q3, and the overall operating rate decreased recently. Although there were many maintenance enterprises this week, some have gradually resumed production [81][87]. - **Downstream Demand** - **Profiles and Pipes**: The two major downstream industries of PVC, profiles and pipes, faced great pressure, and the demand was weak. The real - estate industry, with the goal of "reducing inventory and stabilizing prices", continued to have a negative impact on demand [94]. - **Real - Estate Data**: The real - estate industry is still in the bottom - building cycle, with indicators such as housing sales price index, land transaction area, and new construction area showing weak performance [95]. - **Inventory**: The inventory increased in Q3, and the total inventory was at the highest level in recent years compared with the same period [102]. - **External Market and Export**: In August 2025, the PVC import volume decreased, and the export volume decreased month - on - month but increased year - on - year. The export window to Southeast Asia and India has opened [114][120].

Core Viewpoint - Hubei Xingrui Silicon Materials Co., Ltd. successfully passed the review for the renewal of its production license for chlor-alkali products, indicating compliance with national regulations and standards [1] Group 1: License Renewal - The review was conducted by the Hubei Provincial Industrial Product License Review Group, which evaluated the company's compliance with necessary licensing conditions [1] - The evaluation included aspects such as quality management responsibilities, resource provision, human resource allocation, technical document management, process quality control, product quality inspection, and safety production [1] - The review group acknowledged the company's efforts in ensuring product quality safety and fulfilling quality responsibility, leading to the approval of the license renewal [1]