Group 1: Investment Ratings - No investment ratings for the industry are provided in the report. Group 2: Core Views - The report analyzes import profits, internal - external price differences, and trading strategies across multiple industries including agriculture, energy, metals, and precious metals. It also considers the impacts of tariffs, supply - demand, and exchange rates on these factors [1][3]. Group 3: Industry - Specific Summaries Agriculture - **Cotton**: Due to trade wars, sanctions, and tariff policies, the relationship between domestic and foreign cotton markets has changed. After tariff cuts, the strength of Zhengzhou cotton and US cotton has reversed. Continued attention to tariff policy changes is recommended [1]. - **Oils and Oilseeds**: These commodities have a high import dependency. Their international supply - demand balance is transmitted to the domestic market through imports, and the focus should be on the difference in domestic and foreign supply - demand rhythms [1]. Iron Ore - In the short - term, the shipping and arrival of iron ore are increasing, iron - water production is oscillating at a high level. With strong overseas macro - disturbances and relatively stable domestic macro - conditions, the ore price center has declined, and there are fewer short - term internal - external price difference opportunities. In the long - run, the global supply - demand balance is more surplus compared to the Chinese market [1]. Energy - **SC**: The internal - external price relationship is weakening. - **FU**: In summer, the internal - external relationship remains weak, and the internal - external price difference of FU09 is compressing. - **LU**: The external crack spread basis has rebounded, and with the cancellation of warehouse receipts, the internal - external relationship is strengthening. - **PG**: After tariff relaxation, the external price has risen. The internal - external price difference has decreased significantly [1]. - **PX**: Domestic PX operating rates have declined, and there are still some overseas maintenance. As TA restarts, the PX de - stocking rate is expected to increase. The current internal - external price difference has converged significantly, and the valuation is becoming neutral, so it is recommended to wait and see [1]. Metals - **Aluminum**: Close the internal - external reverse arbitrage position to take profit. - **Tin**: As overseas and Myanmar mines resume production smoothly, pay attention to internal - external positive arbitrage opportunities. The LME inventory has been low recently. - **Zinc**: Close the internal - external reverse arbitrage position [1]. Precious Metals - **Gold**: The RMB exchange rate has an impact on the domestic price, and the internal - external price ratio has dropped rapidly. The end of the domestic consumption peak season and the Diwali - supported gold consumption in India have also contributed to this decline. - **Silver**: The spot discount has widened, and the import window is closed [3].

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 运筹帷幄 决胜千里 宝城期货品种套利数据日报（2025 年 5 月 20 日） 一、动力煤 | 商品 | | | 动力煤（元/吨） | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 日期 | 基差 | 5月-1月 | 9月-1月 | 9月-5月 | | 2025/05/19 | -189.4 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | | 2025/05/16 | -187.4 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | | 2025/05/15 | -187.4 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | | 2025/05/14 | -184.4 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | | 2025/05/13 | -182.4 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | -250 -200 -150 -100 -50 0 50 100 150 450 500 550 600 650 700 750 800 850 900 950 动力煤基差 基差（右） 动力煤现货价:秦皇岛 期货结算价(活跃合约) :动力煤 www.bcqhgs.com 1 ...

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1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No industry investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Views - The overall market is influenced by factors such as trade negotiations, economic data, and policy changes. Different commodities show various trends and investment opportunities based on their specific fundamentals [1][2][3]. - Trade war impacts are gradually weakening, but uncertainties still exist, affecting market sentiment and price trends [1][4][5]. - Some commodities are expected to be in a state of supply - demand imbalance, leading to price fluctuations and investment strategies [3][4][6]. 3. Summary by Commodity Categories Precious Metals - **Gold**: Market showed Friday oscillations, with international gold priced in London nearly closing at $3200/ounce. Suggested to build long positions opportunistically due to the unchanged de - dollarization logic [1]. - **Silver**: Recommended to short on rebounds or go long on the gold - silver ratio [1]. Base Metals - **Copper**: Expected to trade in a range due to short - term risk preference decline, weak dollar, and tight spot market, despite inventory accumulation [2]. - **Aluminum**: Likely to maintain a sideways movement in the short term as downstream consumption weakens, and it's advised to wait and see [2]. - **Alumina**: Prices are expected to be strong until an agreement is reached between mining companies and the Guinea government, and a light - position long strategy is recommended [3]. - **Industrial Silicon**: With weak fundamentals and limited downward momentum, it's advisable to wait and see [3]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: Suggested to hold short positions or short on rebounds as the market is in a surplus and the bearish sentiment is strong [3]. - **Polysilicon**: Expected to bottom - out and oscillate in the short term, and it's recommended to take profit on long positions and consider shorting the 07 contract later [3]. - **Tin**: Forecasted to trade in a range due to weak risk preference and a weak dollar [3]. Black Industry - **Rebar**: Futures prices are expected to have wide - range oscillations, and it's recommended to close short positions and consider certain arbitrage strategies [4]. - **Iron Ore**: Futures prices are expected to oscillate widely, and it's advised to close short positions and try long positions on the 2509 contract [4]. - **Coking Coal**: It's recommended to wait and see as the market is in a relatively balanced state [4]. Agricultural Products - **Soybean Meal**: U.S. soybeans are expected to be range - bound, and domestic soybeans are short - term weak and mid - term follow the international market [5]. - **Corn**: Futures prices are expected to oscillate and consolidate as the spot market is weak and trade conditions ease [5]. - **Sugar**: The global sugar market is expected to be in surplus in the 25/26 season, and the short - term is expected to rebound while the long - term is bearish [6]. - **Cotton**: It's recommended to wait and see and adopt a range - trading strategy [6]. - **Palm Oil**: In a seasonal weak phase, and later attention should be paid to production and biodiesel policies [6]. - **Eggs**: Futures prices are expected to oscillate as supply is high and demand is weak with cost support [6]. - **Hogs**: Futures prices are expected to decline as supply increases and demand is in the off - season [6]. - **Apples**: Prices are expected to remain high in the short term, but attention should be paid to fruit consumption and weather conditions [6]. Energy and Chemicals - **LLDPE**: Expected to be strong in the short term and weak in the long term. Short - term long positions can be considered, and long - term short positions on far - month contracts are recommended [8]. - **PTA**: PX and PTA are in a de - stocking state, and it's recommended to take profit on long - short spreads and be cautious with single - side trading [8]. - **Rubber**: Bearish sentiment is strong, and it's recommended to short on rallies in the medium term [8]. - **Glass**: Prices are expected to decline slightly, and it's recommended to sell call options above 1250 [8]. - **PP**: Expected to be strong in the short term and weak in the long term. Short - term long positions can be considered, and long - term short positions on far - month contracts are recommended [9]. - **MEG**: Prices are expected to be strong in the short term, but long positions should be taken with caution due to high valuation [9]. - **Crude Oil**: Recommended as a short - side allocation due to high supply pressure and potential negative factors [9]. - **Styrene**: Expected to be strong in the short term, and a long - short spread strategy is recommended [10]. - **Soda Ash**: It's recommended to close short positions gradually and consider selling out - of - the - money call options [10]. - **Caustic Soda**: Expected to stop falling and stabilize, waiting for non - aluminum downstream demand to recover [10]. Shipping - **European Line Container Shipping**: The 06 contract should be chased with caution, and an 8 - 10 long - short spread strategy is recommended [11].

宏观策略（股指期货） 最高法、证监会：依法对编传"小作文"追究刑事责任 城市更新行动方案出炉，未来国内托举经济的路径逐渐明朗， 固定资产投资在经济中的占比仍将保持较高水平。对股市而言， 需关注 PPI 的边际变化，来决定企业利润率的弹性。 宏观策略（黄金） 日度报告——综合晨报 鲍威尔对长期利率上升提出警告 [T报ab告le_日R期an：k] 2025-05-16 农产品（玉米） 饲料企业库存天数微增 鲍威尔表示需要重新考虑围绕就业不足和平均通胀率战略措辞 综 合 金价剧烈波动先跌后涨最终收涨，内盘持仓小幅减少，在关税 和地缘军事冲突缓解的情况下，资金开始流出黄金，短期金价 仍处于调整过程中，尚未完全企稳，同时波动加大。 晨 宏观策略（外汇期货(美元指数)） 报 关税谈判进展缓慢 欧盟据悉正在准备与美国的新贸易提案 美联储准备修改自己的政策框架，这意味着未来新的政策思路 发生巨大改变，美元指数短期震荡。 黑色金属（螺纹钢/热轧卷板） 乘联分会：5 月 1-11 日全国乘用车市场零售 57.4 万辆 本周钢联五大品种库存再度下降，冷轧则延续小幅累库，制造 业终端边际转弱并未扭转。基本面矛盾不大，加之关税缓和， ...

日度报告——综合晨报 中国 4 月金融数据多数不及预期 [T报ab告le_日R期an：k] 2025-05-15 宏观策略（外汇期货(美元指数)） 美联储副主席：预计经济增长将放缓，通胀或反弹但待观察 美联储官员表态经济稳健，因此不急于降息，美联储官员对于 经济短期看法明显乐观，美元维持震荡。 宏观策略（美国股指期货） 韩国与美国就外汇政策展开对话 美国与中东国家的协议继续支撑科技板块上涨，股指表现分化， 纳指明显强于标普 500 和道琼斯指数。 综 宏观策略（国债期货） 合 4 月金融数据多数不及预期 晨 报 虽然财政正在积极发力，但私人部门仍然缺乏主动投融资意愿。 基本面对债市的影响依然是偏多的。 黑色金属（动力煤） 5 月 14 日北港市场动力煤价格弱势运行 伴随港口集中疏港，煤价下行压力一次性释放。后期来看，根 据天气预估，此轮夏季或再次呈现高温，火电增速有望在夏季 转至同比正增长。需求季节性回转将接替港口降库完成，煤 农产品（豆粕） 美国建议延长生物燃料税收抵免 美国众议院提议延长生物燃料税收抵免至 2031 年底，ANEC 将 巴西 5 月出口预估上调至 1426 万吨。昨日国内豆粕现货稳中有 跌 ...

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 运筹帷幄 决胜千里 宝城期货品种套利数据日报（2025 年 5 月 14 日） 一、动力煤 运筹帷幄 决胜千里 二、能源化工 www.bcqhgs.com 2 杭州市求是路8号公元大厦东南裙楼1-5层 2025/05/13 2025/05/12 2025/05/09 2025/05/08 2025/05/07 0.1371 0.1367 0.1388 25.43 - 0.1365 -35.58 商品 日期 -33.22 - -33.75 比价 0.1360 22.51 27.80 - 燃料油 -27.47 原油/沥青 能源：基差（元/吨） INE原油 -100 -80 -60 -40 -20 0 20 40 200 300 400 500 600 700 800 原油基差 基差（右） 原油现货价:中国胜利 期货收盘价(活跃合约):INE原油 -400 -300 -200 -100 0 100 200 300 2000 2200 2400 2600 2800 3000 3200 3400 3600 3800 4000 燃料油基差 基差（右） 燃料油现货价:FO ...

Core Viewpoint - Traditional energy and chemical companies are showcasing their technological innovations and new products at the 27th China Beijing International Science and Technology Industry Expo, highlighting a transformation in the industry through technology and innovation [2][8]. Group 1: Innovations in Catalyst Recycling - Longyuan Environmental Protection Co., Ltd. of the State Energy Group presented its innovative catalyst recycling technology, which transforms waste catalysts into regenerated catalysts, achieving performance comparable to new catalysts [4][5]. - The company has established three bases in Wuxi, Yixing, and Wuhai, focusing on catalyst production and regeneration [2][4]. - The regeneration process involves a modular unpacking and sorting technique, enhancing properties such as low-temperature activity and wear resistance [4]. Group 2: Water Treatment Technology - Longyuan's core products include ultrafiltration and reverse osmosis membranes, which can effectively treat wastewater, achieving a cost reduction of over 20% compared to imported products while meeting international performance standards [4][5]. Group 3: Carbon Capture and Utilization - Longyuan is involved in the national-level CCUS (Carbon Capture, Utilization, and Storage) research platform, collaborating with 24 entities, including leading companies and research institutions, to develop a comprehensive technology chain for efficient CO2 capture and utilization [5]. Group 4: Innovations in Lithium and Potassium Extraction - China Minmetals Corporation showcased a model for lithium and potassium extraction from Qinghai salt lakes, demonstrating a comprehensive innovation system for resource development [6]. - The project employs solid potassium ore dissolution technology for efficient extraction of low-grade resources and aims to establish the largest potassium fertilizer base in China [6]. Group 5: Smart Safety Management in Chemical Industry - Beijing Chemical Group introduced a smart safety management system, including smart helmets and gas detection devices, to enhance safety in hazardous chemical operations [7]. - The smart helmet integrates multiple functions such as real-time communication, life sign monitoring, and gas detection, significantly improving safety management in traditional industries [7]. Group 6: Future Outlook - The innovations presented at the expo indicate a significant shift in traditional energy and chemical companies towards sustainable development and the achievement of carbon neutrality goals [8].

Core Viewpoint - The implementation of the mandatory national energy consumption limits standards, effective from May 1, 2024, is expected to drive structural investment opportunities across various industries, including petrochemicals, coal, mining, and paper [1][2]. Steel Industry - The new energy consumption limits are projected to yield an annual energy savings of 24.52 million tons of standard coal [2]. - The standards will facilitate the elimination of outdated production capacity and enhance energy efficiency through technological upgrades and process optimization [2][3]. - The implementation is anticipated to raise the investment threshold for new capacity, leading to a long-term increase in steel production costs [3]. - The steel industry is currently facing oversupply and weak demand, making supply-side structural reforms essential for healthy development [3]. Building Materials Industry - Recent government policies aim to regulate capacity, promote green transformation, and enhance technological upgrades in the flat glass industry [4]. - The new standards will positively impact the energy-saving and carbon-reduction efforts in the glass and cement sectors, fostering a healthy development cycle [4][5]. Energy and Chemical Industry - The new energy consumption limits are a necessary response to past capacity expansions and the dual carbon goals [6]. - The standards will compel companies to accelerate technological upgrades and increase investments in energy-saving technologies, with expected investments exceeding 100 billion yuan [8]. - The implementation is expected to lead to a significant reduction in outdated capacity, with a projected decrease of 10 million tons in refining capacity by 2025 [8]. Nonferrous Metals Industry - The energy consumption limits are seen as a critical measure for promoting the green transformation and upgrading of the nonferrous metals industry [10]. - The implementation will accelerate the elimination of inefficient production capacity, particularly in high-energy-consuming small smelting plants [10]. - The copper market is expected to face downward pressure due to tightening supply and increased environmental regulations [10][11]. Coal Industry - The energy consumption limits are expected to result in an annual energy savings of 24.52 million tons of standard coal, promoting better energy management across industries [12]. - The short-term impact on coal supply and demand is limited, but long-term effects will include the elimination of outdated capacity and the modernization of production techniques [12].

Group 1 - The application recognition work for the concept verification centers and pilot test bases in Shaanxi Province has been initiated, aiming to accelerate the industrialization of scientific and technological achievements by establishing high-level centers and bases [1][2] - By the end of 2026, Shaanxi plans to cultivate and recognize 60 concept verification centers and pilot test bases, conduct 500 concept verifications, 500 pilot test services, promote 300 new products to market, and incubate 200 technology-based enterprises [1] - The provincial government will provide funding support after a thorough review process involving third-party organizations and expert evaluations [1] Group 2 - Shaanxi supports the establishment of concept verification centers led by universities and enterprises in new fields such as photonics, hydrogen energy, energy storage, artificial intelligence, robotics, intelligent connected vehicles, and third-generation semiconductors [2] - The province encourages leading technology enterprises to establish pilot test bases focusing on secondary development experiments or trial production in advantageous industries like energy and chemicals, aerospace, equipment manufacturing, biomedicine, and new materials [2]