2026年02月26日 国泰君安期货商品研究晨报 观点与策略 | 黄金：震荡上行 | 3 | | --- | --- | | 白银：关注节后高开 | 3 | | 铜：情绪回暖，价格回升 | 5 | | 铅：库存增加，限制价格回升 | 7 | | 锡：震荡偏强 | 8 | | 铂：市场或受消息面提振情绪偏好 | 9 | | 钯：跟随偏强 | 9 | | 镍：沪镍投机情绪仍存，持续关注镍矿矛盾 | 11 | | 不锈钢：成本支撑重心上移，淡季累库约束弹性 | 11 | | 碳酸锂：情绪面发酵，盘面或高开高走 | 13 | | 工业硅：下方空间或不深 | 15 | | 多晶硅：关注现货成交情况 | 15 | | 铁矿石：地产预期回暖，矿价反弹 | 17 | | 螺纹钢：宏观情绪扰动，震荡反复 | 18 | | 热轧卷板：宏观情绪扰动，震荡反复 | 18 | | 硅铁：地产情绪扰动，板块低位震荡 | 20 | | 锰硅：地产情绪扰动，板块低位震荡 | 20 | | 焦炭：宽幅震荡 | 22 | | 焦煤：宽幅震荡 | 22 | | 动力煤：上游报价坚挺，短期煤价表现偏强 | 24 | | 原木：地产预期回暖，震荡偏强 ...

热点栏目 自选股 数据中心 行情中心 资金流向 模拟交易 客户端 来源：华泰期货 作者： 黑色建材组 相关品种：螺纹钢、焦煤、铁矿石、焦炭、热卷 免责声明： 本报告基于本公司认为可靠的、已公开的信息编制，但本公司对该等信息的准确性及完整性不作任何保 证。本报 告所载的意见、结论及预测仅反映报告发布当日的观点和判断。在不同时期，本公司可能会 发出与本报告所载意 见、评估及预测不一致的研究报告。本公司不保证本报告所含信息保持在最新状 态。本公司对本报告所含信息可 在不发出通知的情形下做出修改， 投资者应当自行关注相应的更新或 修改。 本公司力求报告内容客观、公正，但本报告所载的观点、结论和建议仅供参考，投资者并不能 依靠本报告以取代 行使独立判断。对投资者依据或者使用本报告所造成的一切后果，本公司及作者均 不承担任何法律责任。 本报告版权仅为本公司所有。未经本公司书面许可，任何机构或个人不得以翻 版、复制、发表、引用或再次分发 他人等任何形式侵犯本公司版权。如征得本公司同意进行引用、刊 发的，需在允许的范围内使用，并注明出处为 "华泰期货研究院"，且不得对本报告进行任何有悖原意 的引用、删节和修改。本公司保留追究 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoints of the Report - The production side shows mixed trends, with some indicators like power plant daily consumption falling during the holiday, while the blast furnace operating rate rising against the trend; the demand side has a weak rebound in the property market and strong growth in the auto market, but prices of steel, cement, glass and other products are weak or fluctuating; inflation shows different trends in CPI and PPI, with post - holiday pig prices weakening and oil prices rising [4] Summary of Each Section According to the Directory 1. Economic Growth: Weak Rebound in the Property Market During the Holiday 1.1 Production: Rising Blast Furnace Operating Rate Against the Trend - **Power plant daily consumption decline during the holiday**: On February 24, the average daily consumption of 6 large power generation groups was 58.4 tons, a 0.7% decrease from February 17; on February 13, the daily consumption of power plants in eight southern provinces was 240.1 tons, a 22.9% decrease from February 9 [4][11] - **Rising blast furnace operating rate against the trend**: On February 13, the national blast furnace operating rate was 80.2%, a 0.6 - percentage - point increase from February 6; the capacity utilization rate was 86.4%, a 0.7 - percentage - point increase from February 6. The operating rate of blast furnaces in Tangshan steel mills was 96.8% on February 13, a 4.5 - percentage - point increase from February 6 [4][15] - **Tire operating rate dropping to the same - period low last year during the holiday**: On February 19, the operating rate of truck all - steel tires was 14.2%, a 28.2 - percentage - point decrease from February 12; the operating rate of car semi - steel tires was 14.2%, a 45.2 - percentage - point decrease from February 12. The operating rate of looms in Jiangsu and Zhejiang regions also had a seasonal decline [4][17] 1.2 Demand: Weak Rebound in the Property Market During the Holiday - **Weak rebound in the property market during the holiday**: From the first day to the seventh day of the Lunar New Year, the average daily sales area of commercial housing in 30 large and medium - sized cities was 75,000 square meters, a 15.9% increase from the same period last year, a 44.6% increase from the same period in 2024, and a 54.0% decrease from the same period in 2023. The rebound strength in first - tier cities was stronger than that in second - and third - tier cities [21] - **Stronger growth in auto market retail sales**: In February, retail sales increased by 54% year - on - year, and wholesale sales increased by 46% year - on - year [4][25] - **Weak and fluctuating steel prices**: On February 24, the prices of rebar, wire rod, hot - rolled coil and cold - rolled coil decreased by 0.3%, 0.3%, 0.9% and remained flat respectively compared with February 14. The inventory of steel products also increased rapidly [29] - **Continued weakness in cement prices**: On February 24, the national cement price index decreased by 0.2% compared with February 12. The prices in East China and the Yangtze River regions decreased by 0.3% and 0.4% respectively, slightly weaker than the national average [30] - **Narrow - range fluctuations in glass prices**: On February 24, the active futures contract price of glass was 1048 yuan/ton, a 0.8% decrease from February 13 [36] - **Unstoppable decline in container shipping freight rate index**: On February 13, the CCFI index decreased by 3.0% compared with February 6, and the SCFI index decreased by 1.2% during the same period [40] 2. Inflation: Weakening Pig Prices After the Holiday 2.1 CPI: Weakening Pig Prices After the Holiday - **Weakening pig prices after the holiday**: On February 24, the average wholesale price of pork was 18.3 yuan/kg, a 0.2% decrease from February 14 [45] - **Seasonal decline in the agricultural product price index**: On February 24, the agricultural product wholesale price index decreased by 0.8% compared with February 14. Different agricultural products showed different price trends [50] 2.2 PPI: Rising Oil Prices - **Rising oil prices**: On February 24, the spot prices of Brent and WTI crude oil were 71.4 and 65.6 US dollars/barrel respectively, a 1.8% and 5.3% increase from February 17 [53] - **Falling copper and aluminum prices**: On February 24, the prices of LME 3 - month copper and aluminum increased by 3.4% and 1.8% respectively compared with February 17. The domestic commodity index also had a decline in the month - on - month comparison [58] - **Most industrial product prices falling month - on - month**: Since February, most industrial product prices have fallen, with power coal prices rising month - on - month and other products falling, mainly rebar and cement [61]

| 乖 亦安期货 | | --- | 废钢早报 研究中心黑色团队 2026/02/26 | 日期 | 华东 | 华北 | 中部 | 华南 | 东北 | 西南 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2026/02/11 | 2190 | 2265 | 2063 | 2220 | 2215 | 2107 | | 2026/02/12 | 2190 | 2264 | 2063 | 2220 | 2215 | 2107 | | 2026/02/13 | 2190 | 2264 | 2063 | 2220 | 2215 | 2107 | | 2026/02/24 | 2191 | 2264 | 2063 | 2220 | 2215 | 2107 | | 2026/02/25 | 2191 | 2265 | 2063 | 2220 | 2215 | 2107 | | 环比 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 免责声明: 以上内容所依据的信息均来源于交易所、媒体及资讯公司等发布的公开资料或通过合法授权渠道向发布人取得的资讯，我们力求分析及建议内 容的 ...

Market Overview - Year-to-date, stock ETFs have shown a net outflow of 187.3 billion yuan as of February 24, 2026[2] - The total return of the Wind All A-Share Index is 6.53% year-to-date, despite significant ETF outflows, indicating a shift in market sentiment[2] International Developments - German Chancellor Friedrich Merz visited China from February 25 to 26, accompanied by a high-level delegation of 30 representatives from the German business sector[3] - The U.S. Trade Representative, Katherine Tai, indicated ongoing investigations into China's compliance with the Phase One trade agreement, suggesting potential tariff measures[3] Stock Market Performance - On February 25, the Shanghai Composite Index rose by 0.72%, while the Shenzhen Component Index increased by 1.29%, with total trading volume reaching 24,625.48 billion yuan, an increase of 2,604.86 billion yuan from the previous trading day[4] - The ChiNext Index rose by 1.41%, and the STAR 50 Index increased by 0.54%[4] Bond Market Insights - The yield on the 10-year government bond is 1.8195%, with a change of +1.42 basis points[5] - The average rates for R001 and R007 in the interbank market were 1.4652% and 1.5869%, respectively[5] Sector Performance - The top-performing sectors included steel (4.69%), non-ferrous metals (3.48%), and building materials (2.75%), while banking and media sectors saw declines of 0.46% and 1.15%, respectively[5]

2月25日，上证指数涨0.72%报4147.23点，深证成指涨1.29%报14475.86点，创业板指涨1.41%报3354.82 点。沪深两市成交额2.46万亿元，较前一交易日放量约2604.84亿元。个股涨多跌少，3540只上涨、1529 只下跌、121只持平，题材板块涨幅居前。 今日，A股十大人气热股如下：包钢股份、航天发展、长春高新、云天化、汉缆股份、北方稀土、和邦 生物、金正大、川金诺、利欧股份。 | 热度排名 | 人气个股 | 热度值 | 所属概念 | 热度标签 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | T | 包钢股份 | 10.0 | 稀土永磁,特钢概念 | 首板涨停 | | 2 | 航天发展 | 9.25 | 军工信息化,商业航天 | 首板涨停 | | 3 | 长春高新 | 8.25 | 生物疫苗,流感 | 首板涨停 | | 4 | 云天化 | 8.0 | 磷化工,化肥 | 2天2板 | | 5 | 汉缆股份 | 7.5 | 柔性直流输电,特高压 | 4天4板 | | 6 | 北方稀土 | 7.5 | 稀土永磁,小金属概念 | 首板涨停 | | 7 | 和邦生物 ...

近日，多家钢铁企业披露，2026年首月实现了生产"开门红"。例如：方大达钢1月生铁、粗钢、钢材产 量分别完成生产计划的105.01%、110.63%和110.71%，且多项核心指标再攀新高；阳春新钢铁1月全月 产销率达到101%，销售渠道也实现新突破。与此同时，钢铁板块上市公司陆续发布2025年度"成绩 单"。已有近30家钢铁上市企业发布业绩预告，过半数归母净利润为正，其中 华菱钢铁 、 首钢股份 、 柳钢股份 等公司2025年度预计归母净利润均超过5亿元。 ...

黑色建材日报 2026-02-26 昨日商品市场整体情绪回暖，成材价格出现技术性反弹。宏观方面，2026 年 2 月 25 日，上海发布楼市"沪 七条"，以更具针对性的政策优化核心区域（外环内）购房条件，叠加最高 240 万元公积金贷款额度所形 成的杠杆效应，意在提前催化"金三银四"成交行情，明显提振人才及改善性住房需求入市预期。整体来 看，该政策有助于加快房地产市场止跌企稳进程。作为核心一线城市，上海率先调整政策，亦具备较强的 风向标意义和示范效应。综合来看，当前黑色系仍处于多空因素交织下的底部博弈阶段。春节假期结束后， 需重点跟踪板材需求实际恢复强度、两会政策动向以及"双碳"相关政策是否出现边际调整。短期内黑色 系大概率维持区间震荡、重心偏弱运行，趋势性机会尚未形成。 铁矿石 【行情资讯】 从业资格号：F03098415 螺纹钢主力合约下午收盘价为 3076 元/吨, 较上一交易日涨 49 元/吨（1.618%）。当日注册仓单 19597 吨, 环比减少 0 吨。主力合约持仓量为 198.87 万手，环比减少 45800 手。现货市场方面, 螺纹钢天津汇总价 格为 3130 元/吨, 环比减少 10/吨; ...

投资咨询系列报告 山金期货黑色板块日报 更新时间：2026年02月26日08时19分 一、螺纹、热卷 报告导读： 消息面上，上海发布楼市"沪七条"，进一步调减住房限购政策，购房门槛进一步降低；其次，华北部分钢企已接到2026年全国两会期间临时自主减 排通知，要求企业在3月4日—3月11日执行阶段性减排管控，高炉负荷按不低于30%比例自主减排，并由企业结合自身装备、生产与原料库存情况， 制定专项减排执行方案，按要求上报备案。在消息面利多提振下，黑色系商品大幅反弹。供需方面，春节前 247家样本钢厂螺纹产量大幅下降，表 观需求环比回落，总库存继续回升，五大品种总产量大幅下降，库存继续增加，表观需求处于一年中的低位。整体来看，目前市场整体仍处于节日 模式，供需双弱，预计要到元宵节之后才会启动，产量、需求处于低位，库存从低位快速增加，市场对 2026 年的需求预期相对偏弱。从技术面 看，期价出现大幅反弹，但是否能构成反转，仍有待观望。由于当前估值低，下方的空间或有限。 操作建议： 维持观望，谨慎交易 表1：螺纹、热卷相关数据 | 数据类别 | 指标 | 单位 | 最新 | | 较上日 | | 较上周 | | --- ...

2月25日，钢铁ETF（515210）大涨4.27%。 来源：WIND 钢铁板块大涨，主要受供需两端的催化。需求侧，重点城市地产政策利好有望出台，夯实需求预期。 供给侧，2026年有收缩预期，铁矿有让利空间；预计行业将加速进入优胜劣汰阶段。2月8日，工信部发布了《钢铁行业规范条件（2025年版）》，文件属 于钢铁行业行业规范，属于偏职能性的引导文件；2月25日下午，工信部公示符合《钢铁行业规范条件（2025年版）》的首批企业名单。预计相关部门将 持续推进钢铁企业分级分类管理，全面开展钢铁企业分类评价，按照引领型规范企业、规范企业、不符合规范条件企业实施三级管理，引导资源要素向优 势企业集聚。且即将进入两会前后政策密集期，供给受限的概率加大。 当前钢铁板块或是弹性大且有预期差的底部板块。经历四年下行期后，产业的预期较低，今年冬储累库力度为近年来最弱，五大钢材总库存高度也处于近 年低位，映射产业心态上的谨慎和悲观。底部或意味着价格的调整较为充分，低库存水平下如果供需有催化，钢价或具备向上弹性。近期海外东南亚钢价 连续上涨，已经映射出一定的积极信号。投资者可以关注市场上唯一的钢铁ETF（515210）。 板块/基金 ...