Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Copper investment rating: Cautiously bullish [6] - Arbitrage investment rating: Suspended [6] - Option strategy: Short put @ 77,000 yuan/ton [6] Group 2: Core View of the Report - The decline of LME and SHFE copper was due to the increase in LME inventory caused by Trump's plan to impose a 50% tariff on copper from August 1st, but the supply - demand of copper has not changed fundamentally. With low TC prices and no significant weakening of terminal consumption, it is recommended to buy on dips for hedging [6] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Market News and Important Data Futures Quotes - On July 21, 2025, the SHFE copper main contract opened at 78,500 yuan/ton and closed at 79,700 yuan/ton, up 1.65% from the previous trading day. The night - session closed at 79,770 yuan/ton, up 0.64% from the afternoon close [1] Spot Situation - SMM1 electrolytic copper was quoted at 79,320 - 79,790 yuan/ton, with a premium of 150 - 290 yuan/ton to the current contract. The average premium rose 45 yuan from the previous day. The market showed three characteristics, and short - term spot premiums are expected to remain firm [2] Important Information Summary - **Macro and Geopolitical**: US Treasury Secretary said to cut interest rates if inflation is low. Trump Media & Technology Group bought $2 billion in Bitcoin. The US and Germany are close to an agreement to provide air - defense systems to Ukraine [3] - **Mine End**: In June 2025, China's copper ore and concentrate imports were 2,349,690.57 tons, down 1.91% month - on - month and up 1.77% year - on - year. Imports from Chile and Peru changed differently [3] - **Smelting and Import**: In June 2025, China's refined copper imports were 337,042.568 tons, up 15.15% month - on - month and 9.23% year - on - year. Imports from the DRC and Russia changed differently [4] - **Consumption**: On July 18, the copper rod order volume was 0.97 tons, down 0.10 tons from the previous day. The refined copper rod order volume and weekly total transactions also decreased [4] - **Inventory and Warehouse Receipts**: LME warehouse receipts changed by 25.00 tons to 122,075 tons, SHFE warehouse receipts changed by - 10,062 tons to 28,177 tons, and domestic spot electrolytic copper inventory decreased by 2.47 tons to 11.86 tons [5] Strategy - Copper: It is recommended to buy on dips for hedging [6] - Arbitrage: Suspended [6] - Option: Short put @ 77,000 yuan/ton [6] Table 1: Copper Price and Basis Data - The table shows the changes in copper prices, premiums, inventories, warehouse receipts, arbitrage spreads, import profits, and the SHFE - LME ratio over different time periods [24][25][26]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoint - The positive macro - expectations brought by anti - involution have pushed up short - term copper prices [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Copper Price and Volatility - The latest copper price is 79,700 yuan/ton, with a monthly price range forecast of 73,000 - 80,000 yuan/ton. The current volatility is 11.70%, and the historical percentile of the current volatility is 23.0% [2]. 3.2 Copper Risk Management Suggestions - **Inventory Management**: For high finished - product inventory and fear of price decline, it is recommended to sell 75% of the Shanghai copper main futures contract at around 82,000 yuan/ton and sell 25% of the CU2509C82000 call option when the volatility is relatively stable [2]. - **Raw Material Management**: For low raw - material inventory and fear of price increase, it is recommended to buy 75% of the Shanghai copper main futures contract at around 75,000 yuan/ton [2]. 3.3 Factors Affecting Copper Prices - **Likely Factors**: Sino - US tariff policy easing, lower LME inventory levels, the US dollar index hovering at a low level, and anti - involution benefiting the entire non - ferrous metal sector [4]. - **Negative Factors**: Tariff policy fluctuations, reduced global demand due to tariff policies, and the Fed maintaining high interest rates [5]. 3.4 Nanhua's View on Copper Price Trends - Anti - involution affects the entire non - ferrous metal sector. Copper may be slightly stronger in the short term, but there are hidden risks in the medium - term rise. The increase in copper prices has not significantly driven up positions, and there is no need for large - scale capacity optimization on the supply side [6]. 3.5 Copper Futures and Spot Data - **Futures Data**: The latest price of the Shanghai copper main contract is 79,700 yuan/ton (unchanged), the Shanghai copper continuous - one contract is 79,770 yuan/ton (up 1,330 yuan, 1.7%), the Shanghai copper continuous - three contract is 79,750 yuan/ton (unchanged), the LME copper 3M is 9,794.5 US dollars/ton (up 116.5 US dollars, 1.2%), and the Shanghai - London ratio is 8.15 (down 0.03, - 0.37%) [7]. - **Spot Data**: The prices of various copper spots have increased. For example, Shanghai Non - Ferrous 1 copper is 79,555 yuan/ton (up 895 yuan, 1.14%), and the price increases of other spots range from 0.71% to 1.33%. The spot premiums have also increased, with the increase ranging from 9.09% to 35.29% [10]. 3.6 Copper Scrap Spread and Warehouse Receipts - **Scrap Spread**: The current scrap spread (tax - included) is 1,478.51 yuan/ton (up 513.08 yuan, 53.15%), and the reasonable scrap spread (tax - included) is 1,496.7 yuan/ton (up 10.45 yuan, 0.7%) [13]. - **Warehouse Receipts**: The Shanghai copper warehouse receipts and international copper warehouse receipts have decreased. For example, the total Shanghai copper warehouse receipts are 38,239 tons (down 3,900 tons, - 9.26%), and the total international copper warehouse receipts are 4,667 tons (down 2,708 tons, - 36.72%) [16]. 3.7 Copper Inventory Data - **LME Inventory**: The total LME copper inventory is 122,075 tons (down 100 tons, - 0.08%), with different changes in different regions. The registered warehouse receipts are 108,100 tons (down 2,850 tons, - 2.57%), and the cancelled warehouse receipts are 14,075 tons (up 2,875 tons, 25.67%) [18]. - **COMEX Inventory**: The total COMEX copper inventory is 242,837 tons (up 8,633 tons, 3.69%) [21]. 3.8 Copper Import and Processing Data - The copper import profit is - 127.28 yuan/ton (down 16.74 yuan, - 11.62%), and the copper concentrate TC is - 43.17 US dollars/ton (unchanged) [22].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information regarding the report industry investment rating is provided in the given content. 2. Core Views - **Demand**: As of May 2025, the apparent consumption of electrolytic copper was 1.3635 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 80,800 tons or 6.30%. The downstream is in a relative off - season. Although the premium strengthened after the price decline, the trading sentiment remained weak. The output of terminal industrial products such as air conditioners decreased month - on - month. Downstream buyers followed the market on a need - to - basis, and market sentiment was cautious [7]. - **Macro**: US CPI and PPI data slightly exceeded expectations, and inflation data was mild. The decision of the Fed to cut interest rates is highly uncertain. The probability of a rate cut in July remains unclear, but the market generally believes it is low. The US dollar strengthened this week, suppressing the prices in the non - ferrous market. Copper tariffs may be officially implemented on August 1st. In addition to refined copper, copper products may also be subject to tariffs. On July 18th, the State Council Information Office announced a new round of plans to stabilize the growth of non - ferrous metals, focusing on both supply and demand [8]. - **Supply**: As of July 18, 2025, the spot rough smelting fee was - $43.16 per dry ton, and the spot refining fee was - 4.31 cents per pound. Both fees have stabilized and rebounded this week. One smelting enterprise has a maintenance plan in July, involving a refining capacity of 150,000 tons, which has a limited impact on refined copper production. SMM expects the domestic electrolytic copper output in July to increase by 15,500 tons month - on - month, an increase of 1.37%. In the international market, Peruvian protesters lifted the blockade, and the copper transportation and export channels that had been blocked for more than two weeks have resumed [8]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Fundamental Situation - Macro Information - US CPI in June was 2.7% year - on - year, higher than the expected 2.6% and the previous value of 2.4%. Core CPI was 2.9% year - on - year, in line with expectations and higher than the previous value of 2.8%. CPI was 0.3% month - on - month, in line with expectations; core CPI was 0.2% month - on - month, lower than the expected 0.3%. PPI in June increased by 2.3% year - on - year, lower than the expected 2.5% and the previous value of 2.6%. Core PPI increased by 2.6% year - on - year, lower than the expected 2.7% and the previous value of 3% [13]. 3.2 Shanghai Copper Price Trend - Last week, Shanghai copper fluctuated weakly. The weekly high was 78,590 yuan/ton, the low was 77,700 yuan/ton, the weekly amplitude was 1.13%, and the interval decline was - 0.03% [18]. 3.3 Fundamental Situation - Copper Industry Disturbances - Vedanta Resources' Zambian subsidiary Konkola Copper Mines announced on July 16th that it will shut down and transform its smelter to improve capacity efficiency, which is a key measure to fulfill its $1.2 billion five - year investment commitment. - The world's largest cable manufacturer, Prysmian SpA, supports the Trump administration's planned 50% copper import tariff, believing it will strengthen the US domestic supply chain, although costs will be passed on to end - users [21]. 3.4 Shanghai Copper Spot Market - As of July 21st, the average spot premium in East China was 180 yuan/ton, and in South China it was 20 yuan/ton. The social inventory of copper was low. After the copper price declined, spot circulation was smooth, and the spot premium strengthened [27]. 3.5 LME Copper Spread Structure - As of July 18th, the weekly change of LME copper was 0.83%, closing at $9,720 per ton. After the copper tariff was implemented, the LME copper spot premium weakened significantly. Currently, LME copper is at a discount to futures, mainly due to the sufficient supply of market - available copper and the weakening of spot prices [32]. 3.6 Copper Concentrate Port Data - Inventory - As of July 18th, the copper concentrate inventory at 7 major domestic ports decreased by 32,000 tons to 457,000 tons this week. The copper concentrate inventory continued to decline and is currently at an absolute low level in the same period over the years. In May, China imported about 2.4 million tons of copper concentrate, a month - on - month decrease of 18.09% and a year - on - year increase of 5.8%, slightly lower than the average monthly import volume of 2.485 million tons from January to May 2025 [37]. 3.7 Smelter Processing Fees - TC/RC - As of July 18, 2025, the spot rough smelting fee was - $43.16 per dry ton, and the spot refining fee was - 4.31 cents per pound. Both fees have stabilized and rebounded this week. One smelting enterprise has a maintenance plan in July, involving a refining capacity of 150,000 tons, which has a limited impact on refined copper production [43]. 3.8 Scrap Copper - Refined - Scrap Spread - As of July 18, 2025, the refined - scrap spread in the mainstream areas was 827 yuan/ton. The weekly spread strengthened, while the monthly spread weakened. Currently, the refined - scrap spread is at a low level, the substitution advantage of scrap copper is poor, the scrap copper rod production start - up rate increased slightly, and the scrap copper procurement sentiment was low [50]. 3.9 Inventory Information - COMEX - As of July 18th, the COMEX copper inventory was 242,800 short tons, and it increased by 2,379 short tons in the past week, a change of 0.02%. As the copper tariff implementation on August 1st approaches, the rush - to - buy copper sentiment is fading, and the inventory accumulation speed in the US has slowed down. As of July 18th, the LME copper inventory was 122,200 tons, a week - on - week increase of 1.02%. Since the copper tariff was implemented in early July, the LME copper inventory has rebounded from a low level, suppressing the LME copper price [56]. 3.10 Inventory Information - SHFE - As of July 18th, the copper inventory on the Shanghai Futures Exchange was 38,200 tons, a decrease of 3,900 tons from last week, a change of - 16.73%, and a decrease of 6,600 tons from last month, a change of - 15.00%. After the 50% copper tariff was implemented, the export channels tightened, and the domestic copper inventory increased significantly. In the past two days, it has decreased slightly due to new spot purchases after the price decline [60]. 3.11 Inventory Information - Bonded Area - As of July 17th, the cumulative copper spot inventory in the bonded areas of Shanghai and Guangdong was 73,900 tons, an increase of 1,400 tons from the 10th and a decrease of 800 tons from the 14th. The inventory in the Shanghai bonded area was 69,200 tons, an increase of 1,400 tons from the 10th and unchanged from the 14th. The inventory in the Guangdong bonded area was 5,500 tons, a decrease of 800 tons from the 10th and the 14th. The bonded area inventory showed a downward trend. Although there were still smelter export goods entering the warehouse this week, some warehouses also had goods shipped out for export, resulting in a decrease in inventory [63]. 3.12 Refined Copper Monthly Imports and Exports - In June 2025, China exported 154,000 tons of unwrought copper and copper products, a year - on - year decrease of 33.8%. From January to June, the cumulative export was 743,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 4.9%. Imports of unwrought copper and copper products were 464,000 tons. From January to June, China imported 2.633 million tons of unwrought copper and copper products, a year - on - year decrease of 4.6%. In June, China imported 337,000 tons of refined copper, a month - on - month increase of 44,300 tons and a year - on - year increase of 92,300 tons. Exports of refined copper were 79,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 78,700 tons and a year - on - year decrease of 49.92% [68]. 3.13 Downstream Demand - **Copper Rod**: The output of copper rods continued to decline slightly. The market acceptance was low, especially due to insufficient domestic raw material supply and upstream suppliers hoarding goods. In July, the off - season demand affected copper rod production and sales. - **Copper Foil**: The price of copper foil fluctuated. The market supply and demand were weak this week, and the downstream market was not optimistic, with general support from the supply - demand side. - **Copper Tube**: The output of copper tubes decreased significantly due to the shrinking long - term orders from downstream. Large enterprises had a more prominent production cut due to their high previous - period base, while small and medium - sized enterprises had a relatively gentle decline due to capacity limitations [73]. 3.14 Downstream End - Users - As of the end of May, the national cumulative power generation installed capacity was 3.61 billion kilowatts, a year - on - year increase of 18.8%. Among them, solar power installed capacity was 1.08 billion kilowatts, a year - on - year increase of 56.9%, and wind power installed capacity was 570 million kilowatts, a year - on - year increase of 23.1%. - In June 2025, China's air - conditioner output was 28.383 million units, a year - on - year increase of 3%. From January to June, the cumulative output was 163.296 million units, a cumulative increase of 5.5% [78].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The main contract of Shanghai copper fluctuates strongly, with a decrease in open interest, spot discounts, and a weakening basis. The copper concentrate TC spot index rebounds slightly but remains in the negative range, and port inventories increase slightly. Recently, the decline in copper prices has dragged down the copper ore quotation slightly. - On the supply side, due to the relatively abundant raw materials and the good price of the by - product sulfuric acid of smelters, the production willingness of smelters remains relatively positive, and the domestic supply may increase steadily and slightly. - On the demand side, affected by the seasonal consumption off - season, the start - up and orders of downstream copper processing enterprises have declined. Coupled with the price - holding behavior of holders, downstream purchasing attitudes are cautious, mainly for just - in - time replenishment, so the trading sentiment in the spot market is relatively light. - In terms of inventory, the domestic social inventory accumulates slightly but still operates at a medium - low level. Overall, the fundamentals of Shanghai copper may show a slight increase in supply and temporarily weak demand, but due to the increasing macro - policy benefits, the industry expectations are gradually repaired. - In the options market, the call - put ratio of at - the - money options is 1.65, with a month - on - month increase of 0.0536, indicating a bullish sentiment in the options market, and the implied volatility decreases slightly. Technically, for the 60 - minute MACD, the double lines are above the 0 - axis, and the red bars converge slightly. The operation suggestion is to conduct light - position, slightly bullish trading in a volatile market, and pay attention to controlling the rhythm and trading risks. [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the main futures contract of Shanghai copper is 79,700 yuan/ton, up 1,290 yuan; the price of LME 3 - month copper is 9,865.50 US dollars/ton, up 87 US dollars. - The inter - month spread of the main contract is 0 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan; the open interest of the main contract of Shanghai copper is 137,484 lots, down 7,946 lots. - The positions of the top 20 futures holders of Shanghai copper are - 1,352 lots, up 3,254 lots; the LME copper inventory is 122,175 tons, up 25 tons. - The inventory of cathode copper in the SHFE is 84,556 tons, up 3,094 tons; the LME copper cancelled warrants are 14,075 tons, up 2,875 tons. - The SHFE warehouse receipts of cathode copper are 28,177 tons, down 2,856 tons. [2] 3.2 Spot Market - The price of SMM 1 copper spot is 79,555 yuan/ton, up 895 yuan; the price of 1 copper spot in the Yangtze River Non - ferrous Metals Market is 79,640 yuan/ton, up 1,015 yuan. - The CIF (bill of lading) price of Shanghai electrolytic copper is 65 US dollars/ton, unchanged; the average premium of Yangshan copper is 48.50 US dollars/ton, unchanged. - The basis of the CU main contract is - 145 yuan/ton, down 395 yuan; the LME copper cash - to - 3 - month spread is - 53.76 US dollars/ton, up 4.95 US dollars. [2] 3.3 Upstream Situation - The import volume of copper ore and concentrates is 234.97 million tons, down 4.58 million tons; the rough smelting fee (TC) of domestic copper smelters is - 43.45 US dollars/kiloton, up 0.34 US dollars. - The price of copper concentrate in Jiangxi is 69,960 yuan/metal ton, up 1,050 yuan; the price of copper concentrate in Yunnan is 70,660 yuan/metal ton, up 1,050 yuan. - The processing fee for blister copper in the South is 800 yuan/ton, unchanged; the processing fee for blister copper in the North is 750 yuan/ton, unchanged. [2] 3.4 Industry Situation - The output of refined copper is 1.302 billion tons, up 480 million tons; the import volume of unwrought copper and copper products is 460,000 tons, up 30,000 tons. - The social inventory of copper is 41.82 million tons, up 0.43 million tons; the price of 1 bright copper wire scrap in Shanghai is 55,090 yuan/ton, up 400 yuan. - The ex - factory price of 98% sulfuric acid of Jiangxi Copper is 640 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of 2 copper scrap (94 - 96%) in Shanghai is 67,300 yuan/ton, up 450 yuan. [2] 3.5 Downstream and Application - The output of copper products is 2.2145 billion tons, up 118.5 million tons; the cumulative completed investment in power grid infrastructure is 203.986 billion yuan, up 63.169 billion yuan. - The cumulative completed investment in real estate development is 4,665.756 billion yuan, up 1,042.372 billion yuan; the monthly output of integrated circuits is 4,505,785,400 pieces, up 270,785,400 pieces. [2] 3.6 Options Situation - The 20 - day historical volatility of Shanghai copper is 11.64%, up 1.44 percentage points; the 40 - day historical volatility of Shanghai copper is 10.12%, up 0.83 percentage points. - The implied volatility of the current - month at - the - money IV is 9.49%, down 0.0044 percentage points; the call - put ratio of at - the - money options is 1.65, up 0.0536. [2] 3.7 Industry News - The University of Michigan consumer confidence index in the US rose slightly by about 1 point to 61.8 in July, reaching a five - month high; consumers' expectation of price increases in the next year dropped to 4.4%, the lowest since February. - Federal Reserve's Goolsbee: The latest consumer price index data shows that tariffs are pushing up commodity inflation, and he is "slightly worried" about this. Interest rates are expected to drop significantly in the next year. - The Ministry of Commerce: China's consumer market ranks second in the world. In the past four years, the average annual growth rate of total retail sales of consumer goods was 5.5%, and it is expected to exceed 50 trillion yuan this year. Since the 14th Five - Year Plan, the cumulative foreign investment absorbed has exceeded 700 billion US dollars, and the average annual growth rate of China's foreign investment has exceeded 5%. The proportion of exports to the US in total exports decreased from 17.4% in 2020 to 14.7% in 2024. - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology: It will continue to implement the high - quality development implementation plans for the copper, aluminum, and gold industries, and issue and implement a new round of work plans for stabilizing growth in the non - ferrous metals industry; encourage innovation in new non - ferrous metal materials and green and low - carbon process technologies, build a number of green mines, green factories, and green industrial parks, cultivate typical scenarios, benchmark factories, and benchmark enterprises for digital transformation, and promote the in - depth integration of artificial intelligence technology with the industry. - Three departments including the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology jointly held a symposium on the new energy vehicle industry to deploy further standardization of the competition order in the new energy vehicle industry. - The Fourth Central Steering Group conducted a special research symposium on comprehensively rectifying the irrational competition problem in the new energy vehicle industry, requiring leading enterprises to compete legally, rationally, and jointly resist irrational competition in the industry to maintain a fair and just market competition order. - According to Yicai, the hydropower project in the lower reaches of the Yarlung Zangbo River is located in Nyingchi City, Tibet Autonomous Region. The project mainly adopts the development method of straightening the river bend and diverting water through tunnels, and will build 5 cascade power stations with a total investment of about 1.2 trillion yuan. The project's electricity is mainly for external consumption, taking into account the local self - use needs in Tibet. [2]

国泰君安期货研究所·季先飞·首席分析师/有色及贵金属 组联席行政负责人 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0012691 日期：2025年07月20日 Special report on Guotai Junan Futures 1 Guotai Junan Futures all rights reserved, please do not reprint 铜产业链周度报告 铜：下游逢低买货，宏观情绪边际提升，支撑价格走强 强弱分析：中性，价格区间：77000-80000元/吨 铜的精废价差处于历史偏低水平 Special report on Guotai Junan Futures 2 国内铜社会库存处于历史同期低位 资料来源 SMM ，iFinD同花顺 国泰君安期货研究 ： 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 01-02 01-11 01-20 01-29 02-11 02-24 03-06 03-17 03-27 04-08 04-18 04-29 05-13 05-23 06-03 06-13 06-24 07-04 07-15 07-25 08-05 08-15 08-26 09-05 09-16 09- ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided Core View of the Report - The controversy within the Federal Reserve has led to a decline in the US dollar index, boosting the non - ferrous metals market. The copper inventory of the Shanghai Futures Exchange has decreased this week, and the spot premium has strengthened. It is expected that Shanghai copper will fluctuate strongly in the short term. Attention should be paid to tariff expectations and the Federal Reserve's interest - rate decision [1] Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Strategy Analysis - Today, copper opened low and moved high with a strong intraday oscillation. Federal Reserve Governor Waller suggested a 25 - basis - point interest rate cut in July, causing the US dollar index to decline. As of July 11, 2025, the spot smelting fee was - 43.23 dollars per dry ton, and the spot refining fee was - 4.32 cents per pound. Although the copper smelting processing fee is still negative, it has stopped falling and stabilized. The copper concentrate inventory has increased this period, and the expected tight supply of copper may improve. After the 232 copper tariff is implemented, the domestic copper inventory is expected to accumulate. The demand from downstream industries is weak overall, except for the bright refrigerator production and sales data. [1] Futures and Spot Market Conditions - Futures: The Shanghai copper futures market opened low and weakened intraday, closing at 77,840. The long positions of the top 20 were 103,634 lots, a decrease of 4,798 lots; the short positions were 102,315 lots, a decrease of 1,478 lots. Spot: The spot premium in East China was 60 yuan per ton, and in South China was 45 yuan per ton. On July 17, 2025, the LME official price was 9,620 dollars per ton, and the spot premium was - 34.5 dollars per ton [4] Supply Side - As of July 11, the latest data showed that the spot smelting fee (TC) was - 43.23 dollars per dry ton, and the spot refining fee (RC) was - 4.32 cents per pound [6] Fundamental Tracking - Inventory: SHFE copper inventory was 38,200 tons, a decrease of 3,900 tons from the previous period. As of July 17, the copper inventory in the Shanghai Free Trade Zone was 69,300 tons, unchanged from the previous period. LME copper inventory was 122,200 tons, a slight increase of 25 tons from the previous period. COMEX copper inventory was 241,800 short tons, an increase of 2,379 short tons from the previous period [8]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided on the industry investment rating. 2. Core View of the Report The good economic data in the United States supports the price of copper. The strong retail sales data and the decline in the number of initial jobless claims last week in the US led to the rise of the US dollar and the US stock market, with the S&P and the Nasdaq closing at new highs [1]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Copper Fundamental Data - **Futures Prices**: The closing price of the Shanghai copper main contract was 77,850, with a daily decline of 0.15%, and the night - session closing price was 78,260, with a night - session increase of 0.53%. The price of the LME copper 3M electronic disk was 9,678, with an increase of 0.43% [1]. - **Trading Volume and Open Interest**: The trading volume of the Shanghai copper main contract was 35,722, an increase of 1,534 compared to the previous day, and the open interest was 138,006, an increase of 1,690. The trading volume of the LME copper 3M electronic disk was 11,283, a decrease of 5,365, and the open interest was 268,000, an increase of 408 [1]. - **Futures Inventory**: The Shanghai copper inventory was 42,139, a decrease of 8,103, and the LME copper inventory was 122,150, an increase of 1,150. The LME copper注销仓单比 was 9.17%, a decrease of 1.02% [1]. - **Price Spreads**: There were various changes in different price spreads, such as the LME copper ascension and discount, the spread between spot and futures, and the spread between different contracts [1]. 3.2 Macro and Industry News - **Macro**: The strong US retail sales data and the decline in the number of initial jobless claims last week led to the rise of the US dollar and the US stock market, with the S&P and the Nasdaq closing at new highs [1]. - **Industry**: China's imports of copper ore and its concentrates in June were 2.35 million tons, and the cumulative imports from January to June were 14.754 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 6.4%. The imports of unwrought copper and copper products in June were 464,000 tons, and the cumulative imports from January to June were 2.633 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 4.6% [1]. 3.3 Other Industry News - Azerbaijan's copper concentrate production soared nearly 12 times in the first half of this year, reaching about 1,200 tons, much higher than only more than 100 tons in the same period last year [3]. - India continued to impose counter - subsidy duties on continuously cast copper wires from four countries including Indonesia [3]. - Vedanta Resources Ltd.'s copper mine in Zambia plans to renovate its smelter to increase production [3]. 3.4 Trend Intensity The trend intensity of copper is 0, indicating a neutral stance, with the trend intensity ranging from - 2 (most bearish) to 2 (most bullish) [3].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No information about industry investment ratings was found in the provided reports. 2. Core Views - **Copper**: The copper market is affected by both macro and fundamental factors. The expected 50% tariff on US copper in late July, along with weakening demand and existing supply - side contradictions, may lead to price fluctuations. The主力 contract price is expected to be affected by the 78000 support level [1]. - **Aluminum**: For alumina, the market is in a state of small - scale surplus, with prices expected to oscillate between 2950 - 3250. For aluminum, high - level prices face pressure due to inventory accumulation, weakening demand, and macro uncertainties, with the主力 contract price expected to range from 20000 - 20800 [3]. - **Aluminum Alloy**: The regenerative aluminum market shows a pattern of weak supply and demand, with demand being the more prominent issue. The price is expected to oscillate weakly, with the main contract running between 19400 - 20200 [4]. - **Zinc**: The zinc market has a loose supply expectation in the long - term. Although the inventory level provides some price support, the domestic social inventory may enter a stockpiling cycle. The main contract price is expected to range from 21500 - 23000 [7]. - **Nickel**: In the nickel market, the cost support for refined nickel is weakening, and the medium - term supply is expected to be loose. The short - term price is expected to adjust within a range, with the main contract reference of 118000 - 126000 [10]. - **Tin**: The supply of tin ore remains tight, and the demand is expected to be weak after the end of the photovoltaic rush - installation period. It is recommended to hold short positions from the previous high [12]. - **Stainless Steel**: The stainless steel market has weak demand and slow inventory reduction. The short - term price is expected to oscillate, with the main contract running between 12500 - 13000 [14][15]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: The lithium carbonate market has short - term price support due to news and capital sentiment, but the medium - term pressure remains, and there may be a downward trend. The short - term main contract is expected to run between 63000 - 68000 [17]. 3. Summary by Directory Copper - **Price and Basis**: SMM 1 electrolytic copper price dropped by 0.59% to 77995 yuan/ton, and the premium increased by 155 yuan/ton. The refined - scrap price difference decreased by 35.97% to 545 yuan/ton [1]. - **Fundamental Data**: In June, the electrolytic copper production was 113.49 million tons, and the import volume in May increased by 1.23% to 25.31 million tons. The domestic social inventory increased by 3.29% to 14.76 million tons [1]. Aluminum - **Price and Spread**: SMM A00 aluminum price rose by 0.20% to 20510 yuan/ton, and the premium increased by 110 yuan/ton. The alumina price in Shandong increased by 0.32% to 3150 yuan/ton [3]. - **Fundamental Data**: In June, the alumina production was 725.81 million tons, and the electrolytic aluminum production decreased by 3.22% to 360.90 million tons. The aluminum profile production rate remained unchanged at 49.50% [3]. Aluminum Alloy - **Price and Spread**: The price of SMM aluminum alloy ADC12 remained unchanged at 20000 yuan/ton. The spread between 2511 - 2512 increased by 40 yuan/ton to 90 yuan/ton [4]. - **Fundamental Data**: In June, the regenerative aluminum alloy ingot production increased by 1.49% to 61.50 million tons, and the primary aluminum alloy ingot production decreased by 2.30% to 25.50 million tons [4]. Zinc - **Price and Spread**: SMM 0 zinc ingot price dropped by 0.14% to 22150 yuan/ton, and the import profit and loss increased by 63.52 yuan/ton to - 1260 yuan/ton [7]. - **Fundamental Data**: In June, the refined zinc production increased by 6.50% to 58.51 million tons, and the import volume in May decreased by 5.36% to 2.67 million tons. The galvanizing production rate increased by 1.81% to 58.29% [7]. Nickel - **Price and Basis**: SMM 1 electrolytic nickel price dropped by 1.11% to 120400 yuan/ton, and the import profit and loss decreased by 447 yuan/ton to - 2442 yuan/ton [10]. - **Fundamental Data**: In June, the Chinese refined nickel production was 31800 tons, and the import volume increased by 116.90% to 19157 tons. The SHFE inventory increased by 0.83% to 24922 tons [10]. Tin - **Price and Spread**: SMM 1 tin price dropped by 0.71% to 264600 yuan/ton, and the spread between 2508 - 2509 decreased by 120 yuan/ton to - 130 yuan/ton [12]. - **Fundamental Data**: In May, the tin ore import volume increased by 36.39% to 13449 tons, and the SMM refined tin production decreased by 2.37% to 14840 tons [12]. Stainless Steel - **Price and Spread**: The price of 304/2B (Wuxi Hongwang 2.0 coil) dropped by 0.39% to 12750 yuan/ton, and the spread between 2509 - 2510 decreased by 25 yuan/ton to - 60 yuan/ton [14]. - **Fundamental Data**: The production of Chinese 300 - series stainless steel crude steel (43 companies) in April decreased by 3.83% to 171.33 million tons, and the 300 - series social inventory (Wuxi + Foshan) increased by 3.39% to 52.48 million tons [14]. Lithium Carbonate - **Price and Basis**: The average price of SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate increased by 0.39% to 64900 yuan/ton, and the basis increased by 110 yuan/ton to - 1960 yuan/ton [17]. - **Fundamental Data**: In June, the lithium carbonate production increased by 8.34% to 78090 tons, and the demand decreased by 0.15% to 93876 tons. The total inventory increased by 2.27% to 99858 tons [17].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - No industry investment ratings are provided in the reports. 2. Core Views Copper - After the 232 investigation is finalized, the electrolytic copper in non - US regions shows a pattern of "looser supply expectation and weaker actual demand", and the spot contradiction will be gradually resolved. The copper price may return to macro trading, and the negotiation of reciprocal tariffs between China and the US will also disrupt the copper price. The main contract should focus on the support level of 78,000 [1]. Aluminum - For alumina, the short - term price is supported by the supply tightness expectation of bauxite in Guinea and the low inventory of alumina futures warehouse receipts. However, the high - capacity operation situation remains unchanged, and the market is slightly oversupplied. The price of the main contract is expected to fluctuate widely between 2950 - 3250 this week. For aluminum, although the domestic consumption stimulus supports the price, the weakening expectation of the Fed's interest rate cut and tariff uncertainties are short - term negatives. The price of the main contract is expected to face pressure at high levels this week, with a reference range of 20,000 - 20,800 [3]. Aluminum Alloy - The recycled aluminum market maintains a pattern of weak supply and demand, with more prominent demand - side contradictions. The subsequent weak demand will continue to suppress the upward momentum of prices. The disk is expected to fluctuate weakly, with the main contract running between 19,400 - 20,200 [4]. Zinc - The supply of zinc ore is expected to be loose, but the output growth rate of domestic mines in June fell short of expectations, which supports the price. The supply of refined zinc is expected to be loose, while the demand is marginally weak. In the long - term, if the mine growth rate is lower than expected and downstream consumption performs better than expected, the zinc price may maintain a high - level shock pattern; otherwise, the price center may move down. The main contract reference range is 21,500 - 23,000 [8]. Nickel - Macro uncertainties increase, and the nickel fundamentals change little. The cost support of refined nickel has weakened, and the medium - term supply is expected to be loose, which restricts the upward space of the price. The short - term disk is expected to adjust within a range, with the main contract reference range of 118,000 - 126,000 [11]. Tin - The actual supply of tin ore remains tight, and the demand is expected to be weak. Short - term macro fluctuations are large, and previous high - level short positions should be held [14]. Stainless Steel - There are macro uncertainties, and the fundamentals still face pressure. The low - level nickel - iron price weakens the cost support, the supply - side production cut is less than expected, and the overall demand is weak. The short - term disk will fluctuate, with the main contract running between 12,500 - 13,000 [16]. Lithium Carbonate - In the short - term, the fundamentals still face pressure, and the excess supply may intensify. The disk is in a game between sentiment and fundamentals. The short - term disk is expected to run in a relatively strong range, with the main contract running between 63,000 - 68,000, while there is still downward risk in the medium - term [20]. 3. Summaries by Relevant Catalogs Price and Basis - **Copper**: SMM 1 electrolytic copper price dropped to 78,455 yuan/ton, with a daily decline of 0.34%. The SMM 1 electrolytic copper premium/discount was - 20 yuan/ton, up 5 yuan/ton from the previous day [1]. - **Aluminum**: SMM A00 aluminum price dropped to 20,470 yuan/ton, with a daily decline of 1.54%. The SMM A00 aluminum premium/discount was 10 yuan/ton, down 70 yuan/ton from the previous day [3]. - **Aluminum Alloy**: The price of SMM aluminum alloy ADC12 dropped to 20,000 yuan/ton, with a daily decline of 0.50% [4]. - **Zinc**: SMM 0 zinc ingot price dropped to 22,180 yuan/ton, with a daily decline of 1.11%. The premium/discount was 30 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan/ton from the previous day [8]. - **Nickel**: SMM 1 electrolytic nickel price dropped to 121,750 yuan/ton, with a daily decline of 0.33%. The 1 Jinchuan nickel premium/discount dropped to 1,950 yuan/ton, with a daily decline of 2.50% [11]. - **Tin**: SMM 1 tin price dropped to 266,500 yuan/ton, with a daily decline of 0.07%. The SMM 1 tin premium/discount remained unchanged at 700 yuan/ton [14]. - **Stainless Steel**: The price of 304/2B (Wuxi Hongwang 2.0 coil) rose to 12,800 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 0.39% [16]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: The average price of SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate rose to 64,650 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 1.41%. The basis (based on SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate) dropped to - 2070 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 168.83% [20]. Month - to - Month Spreads - **Copper**: The spread between 2507 - 2508 was 50 yuan/ton, down 90 yuan/ton from the previous day [1]. - **Aluminum**: The spread between 2507 - 2508 was 140 yuan/ton, up 70 yuan/ton from the previous day [3]. - **Aluminum Alloy**: The spread between 2511 - 2512 was 90 yuan/ton, up 25 yuan/ton from the previous day [4]. - **Zinc**: The spread between 2507 - 2508 was - 70 yuan/ton, down 25 yuan/ton from the previous day [8]. - **Nickel**: The spread between 2508 - 2509 was - 120 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan/ton from the previous day [11]. - **Tin**: The spread between 2507 - 2508 was 130 yuan/ton, up 340 yuan/ton from the previous day [14]. - **Stainless Steel**: The spread between 2508 - 2509 was - 20 yuan/ton, down 170 yuan/ton from the previous day [16]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: The spread between 2508 - 2509 was 240 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day [20]. Fundamental Data - **Copper**: In June, the electrolytic copper output was 1.1349 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 0.30%. In May, the import volume was 253,100 tons, a month - on - month increase of 1.23% [1]. - **Aluminum**: In June, the alumina output was 7.2581 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 0.19%. The electrolytic aluminum output was 3.609 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 3.22%. In May, the import volume was 250,500 tons, and the export volume was 10,000 tons [3]. - **Aluminum Alloy**: In June, the recycled aluminum alloy ingot output was 615,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 1.49%. The primary aluminum alloy ingot output was 255,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 2.30%. In May, the import volume of unforged aluminum alloy ingots was 97,000 tons, and the export volume was 24,200 tons [4]. - **Zinc**: In June, the refined zinc output was 585,100 tons, a month - on - month increase of 6.50%. In May, the import volume was 26,700 tons, and the export volume was 1,400 tons [8]. - **Nickel**: In June, China's refined nickel output was 31,800 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 10.04%. The import volume of refined nickel was 19,157 tons, a significant increase compared to the previous month [11]. - **Tin**: In May, the tin ore import volume was 13,449 tons, a month - on - month increase of 36.39%. The SMM refined tin output was 14,840 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 2.37% [14]. - **Stainless Steel**: In April (43 companies), the output of Chinese 300 - series stainless steel crude steel was 1.7133 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 3.83%. The import volume was 125,100 tons, and the export volume was 436,300 tons [16]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: In June, the lithium carbonate output was 78,090 tons, a month - on - month increase of 8.34%. The demand was 93,815 tons, a slight month - on - month decrease [20].

Group 1 - The U.S. President Trump announced a 50% tariff on all imported copper starting August 1, citing national security concerns due to copper's critical role in weapon manufacturing and high-tech products [1] - Chilean President Boric strongly opposed the tariff, emphasizing the need to protect Chile's copper industry and advocating for multilateral negotiations while exploring new markets in Asia and Europe [1] - Following the announcement, New York copper futures surged by 17%, marking the largest single-day increase since 1989, raising concerns about rising manufacturing costs in the U.S. and potential price hikes for consumer goods [3] Group 2 - On July 9, Trump announced a similar 50% tariff on Brazilian goods, prompting a strong response from Brazilian President Lula, who criticized the U.S. for its past trade surplus with Brazil [5] - Brazil is a major supplier of everyday consumer goods to the U.S., including coffee, orange juice, and beef, and the tariff could lead to significant price increases in American supermarkets, exacerbating inflationary pressures [5] - The Trump administration's immigration policies have faced backlash from California, with state officials arguing that these measures threaten employment opportunities in agriculture, technology, and services that rely on immigrant labor [6]