回归现实基本面， 期价大幅回落 氧化铝周报 2025/08/02 王梓铧（联系人） 0755-23375132 wangzh7@wkqh.cn 交易咨询号：Z0015924 从业资格号：F03130785 吴坤金（有色金属组） 从业资格号：F3036210 目录 01 周度评估 06 库存 04 需求端 02 期现价格 05 供需平衡 03 供给端 周度评估 周度要点小结 | 氧化铝基本面评 估 | 估值 | | | 驱动 | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 基差 | 进口盈亏 | 冶炼利润 | 矿端 | 供给端 | 需求端 | 库存 | | | （元/吨） | （元/吨） | （元/吨） | | | | | | | | | | 铝土矿6月产量： | | 电解铝6月运 | SHFE：0.66万 | | 数据 | 53 | -105 | 354 | 519万吨 | 周产量： | 行产能： | 吨 | | | | | | 铝土矿6月进口量： | 184.7万吨 | 4403万吨 | 社库：408.2万 | | | | | | ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the report. 2. Core View of the Report The US counter - tariff has been implemented, the results of China - US economic and trade negotiations are not beyond expectations, and the domestic "anti - involution" sentiment has cooled down. Black - series commodities have fluctuated and declined, with a slightly weak sentiment. Domestically, the relatively low inventory of aluminum ingots supports aluminum prices. However, given the off - season for downstream demand and pressure on export demand, the upside for aluminum prices is limited. In the short term, prices are likely to continue to fluctuate weakly. The operating range for the domestic main contract this week is expected to be between 20,200 - 20,700 yuan/ton, and for LME 3M aluminum, it is between 2,520 - 2,620 US dollars/ton [13][14]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Week - on - Week Assessment and Strategy Recommendation - **Supply**: As of the end of July, the domestic electrolytic aluminum operating capacity was about 43.9 million tons. After capacity replacement and commissioning, the industry's operating capacity increased slightly, with a production volume of 3.721 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 1.1%. In August, the operating capacity of electrolytic aluminum will remain at a high level, and production may increase slightly or remain flat month - on - month [13][76]. - **Inventory & Spot**: The domestic aluminum ingot inventory increased by 340,000 tons week - on - week to 544,000 tons; the bonded area inventory decreased by 3,000 tons to 108,000 tons; the LME market aluminum inventory increased by 12,000 tons to 463,000 tons. On Friday, the domestic aluminum ingot spot was at a discount of 20 yuan/ton to the futures, and the LME market Cash/3M was at a discount of 2.6 US dollars/ton [13]. - **Imports and Exports**: In June 2025, China exported 490,000 tons of unwrought aluminum and aluminum products, a month - on - month decrease of over 50,000 tons. The cumulative export volume from January to June was 2.92 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 8%. Recently, the domestic spot import loss of aluminum has shrunk [13]. - **Demand**: The weekly aluminum product operating rate continued to decline. The operating rates of aluminum sheets, foils, rods, profiles, and alloys all decreased, while the operating rate of aluminum rods increased slightly. The downstream is currently in the off - season, and the spot trading of aluminum remains weak. According to the production scheduling reports of three major white - goods released by Industry Online, in August 2025, the production schedule for household air conditioners is 1.144 million units, a 2.8% decrease compared to the actual production volume of the same period last year; for refrigerators, it is 762,000 units, a 9.5% decrease; and for washing machines, it is 791,000 units, a 3.0% decrease. The demand for household appliances is expected to be weak [13]. 3.2 Futures and Spot Market - **Futures Market**: Aluminum prices fluctuated weakly. The main contract of Shanghai Aluminum fell 1.2% week - on - week (as of Friday's close), and LME aluminum closed down 2.26% to 2,571 US dollars/ton [22]. - **Term Spread**: The month - on - month spread rebounded slightly [27]. - **Spot Basis**: The basis of aluminum ingots in major domestic regions fluctuated and stabilized [30]. - **Regional Premium and Discount Spread**: The East China spot was weak, while the Central China spot was strong [35]. - **LME Premium and Discount**: LME aluminum Cash/3M was slightly at a discount [40]. 3.3 Profit and Inventory - **Smelting Profit**: The aluminum smelting profit declined to 3,367 yuan/ton [45]. - **Inventory**: The domestic aluminum ingot social inventory was 544,000 tons, a week - on - week increase of 340,000 tons; the bonded area inventory decreased by 3,000 tons to 108,000 tons. The aluminum rod inventory was 147,000 tons, a week - on - week increase of 20,000 tons. The LME inventory increased by 12,000 tons to 463,000 tons due to LME warehousing [48][51][54]. 3.4 Cost Side - **Bauxite Price**: There is no specific description of price changes in the report. - **Alumina Price**: The domestic alumina price increased, and the overseas alumina price rose slightly [63]. - **Electrolytic Aluminum Smelting Cost**: The anode price declined, and the thermal coal price continued to rebound [68]. 3.5 Supply Side - **Alumina**: In July, China's actual operating capacity of alumina continued to increase by 2%, with an operating rate of 81.6%. Production increased by 5.4% year - on - year, and the overall supply was relatively sufficient [73]. - **Electrolytic Aluminum**: As of the end of July, the domestic electrolytic aluminum operating capacity was about 43.9 million tons, with a production volume of 3.721 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 1.1%. In August, the operating capacity will remain high, and production may increase slightly or remain flat month - on - month [13][76]. - **Aluminum Water Ratio**: The aluminum rod processing fee fluctuated and rebounded. In July, the domestic aluminum water ratio decreased by 2.1 percentage points. It is estimated that the aluminum water ratio will rebound in August [79]. 3.6 Demand Side - **Aluminum Product Output and Aluminum Ingot Outbound**: The aluminum ingot outbound volume remained basically flat (as of the week ending July 28) [84]. - **Downstream Operating Rate**: In June, the operating rates of aluminum rods, profiles, primary aluminum alloy ingots, and aluminum rods all declined, while the operating rate of aluminum sheets, foils, and strips increased slightly. The operating rate of recycled aluminum alloy ingots rebounded but was recently weak [85][89][93][96]. - **Terminal Demand**: The demand for household appliances is expected to be weak. The current real - estate data is also weak, automobile production and sales are acceptable, and photovoltaic installations have decreased significantly, and related demand is also under pressure [99]. 3.7 Imports and Exports - **Aluminum Ingot Imports**: In June 2025, China imported 192,000 tons of primary aluminum, a month - on - month decrease of 13.8% and a year - on - year increase of 58.7%. The cumulative import volume from January to June was 1.249 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 2.5%. Recently, the spot import loss of aluminum ingots has narrowed [102]. - **Aluminum Product Exports**: In June 2025, China exported 490,000 tons of unwrought aluminum and aluminum products, a month - on - month decrease of over 50,000 tons. The cumulative export volume from January to June was 2.92 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 8% [13][108]. - **Recycled Aluminum Imports**: In June 2025, the recycled aluminum import volume was 156,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 4,000 tons and a year - on - year increase of 11.5%. The cumulative import volume in the first six months was 1.012 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 6.9% [108]. - **Bauxite and Alumina Imports and Exports**: In June 2025, China imported 18.12 million tons of bauxite, a year - on - year increase of 36.2%. The cumulative import volume of bauxite from January to June was 103.25 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 33.6%. In June 2025, China exported 171,000 tons of alumina, a month - on - month decrease of 17.7% and a year - on - year increase of 9.0%. The cumulative alumina export volume from January to June was 1.34 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 65.7% [111].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The price of alumina may decline due to increased supply, but high - cost capacity's full - cost range could be a theoretical support. If policies lead to a significant drop in the operating rate, the price may rise further. For electrolytic aluminum, the supply has only a small net increase, and the demand is differentiated. The price is expected to rise after corrections, and the low inventory will drive the expansion of the monthly spread and basis premium [4][5][105] 3. Summary According to the Table of Contents 3.1 First Part: Preface Summary - **Alumina**: If the new policy has no strong impact on alumina production or new capacity, the price may decline due to supply - demand surplus. The high - cost capacity's full - cost range (3000 - 3100 yuan) could be the theoretical support. If the policy causes a supply shortage, the price may rise [4] - **Electrolytic Aluminum**: The supply has only a small net increase. The demand in transportation and power electronics will drive consumption, while photovoltaic demand weakens slightly, and real estate and household appliances drag. The price is expected to rise after corrections, and the low inventory will drive the expansion of the monthly spread and basis premium [5] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Unilateral trading: Alumina between 3000 - 3600 yuan; aluminum between 20200 - 21200 yuan. Arbitrage: Pay attention to positive arbitrage opportunities when the spread between the first and third - month contracts of Shanghai aluminum is between 40 - 70. Options: Hold a wait - and - see attitude [5] 3.2 Second Part: Policy Expectations Expand Price Fluctuations, Focus on the Change of Alumina Fundamental Contradictions - **Bauxite Supply**: Domestic bauxite prices are stable, and attention should be paid to non - seasonal impacts. In Guinea, although the rainy season affects shipments, the resumption of mining in some areas offsets the previous production reduction, and the supply is expected to be in surplus. The import price of bauxite is expected to have limited rebound [8][10] - **Alumina Fundamentals**: The supply - demand surplus of alumina has increased. The operating capacity has reached a new high, while the increase in electrolytic aluminum operating capacity is small. The import volume of alumina may increase in the second half of the year. The theoretical profit of alumina plants is expected to expand in July. After the long - term contracts are replenished, pay attention to the increase in warehouse receipts [20][24][29] - **Price Logic**: The "anti - involution" sentiment has subsided, and the alumina price is expected to return to the fundamental logic. Wait for the policy to be implemented to assess its impact on alumina supply and price [36][42] 3.3 Third Part: The Influence of Fundamental Logic on Price is Expected to Increase, Focus on the Inventory Inflection Point in August - **Macro Influence on Aluminum Price**: The influence of the US tariff and domestic policies on aluminum prices is limited. The influence of macro factors on aluminum prices is expected to decline, and the focus should be on demand growth and inventory levels [44][49] - **Electrolytic Aluminum Supply**: The profit of electrolytic aluminum remains high, and capacity replacement is still in progress. Overseas electrolytic aluminum capacity is expected to increase in 2026 - 2027 [50][55] - **Inventory Inflection Point**: The peak of domestic aluminum ingot inventory is expected to be between 56 - 600,000 tons. The low inventory will drive the expansion of the monthly spread and basis premium. LME aluminum has been accumulating inventory recently, but the basis has not shown a significant discount, indicating a tight supply - demand situation overseas [60][73] - **Terminal Consumption**: New energy, transportation, and power fields will drive aluminum demand, while real estate and household appliances will drag. The export of aluminum products is expected to decline seasonally in the second half of the year [76][89][101] 3.4 Fourth Part: Outlook and Strategy Recommendation for the Future Market - **Alumina**: After the speculative sentiment fades, the price will return to the fundamental logic. If the policy has no strong impact on production or new capacity, the price may decline. If the policy causes a supply shortage, the price may rise [105] - **Electrolytic Aluminum**: The supply has only a small net increase, and the demand is differentiated. The low inventory will drive the expansion of the monthly spread and basis premium. The price is expected to rise after corrections [112]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Aluminum: Neutral [10] - Alumina: Neutral [10] - Aluminum Alloy: Neutral [10] 2. Core Viewpoints - Despite a significant decline in market sentiment this week, aluminum prices remained relatively resilient. During the off - season, the spot market's premium and discount were weak. The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology's growth - stabilization plan has no impact on the electrolytic aluminum supply side, but potential policy support for the consumption side should be monitored. Although social inventories are accumulating during the off - season, the expected increase is limited due to supply constraints. There is a need to be vigilant about the squeeze - out risk in the 08 contract. The post - decline correction after the anti - involution sentiment fades is an opportunity for long - term buying hedging [6]. - There are still issues with alumina warehouse receipts. The supply side continues to resume production due to profit incentives, and the current and expected surplus situation remains unchanged, with the social inventory accumulation rate increasing. The short - term surplus may be in transit and form warehouse receipts later, while the spot market remains in a tight - balance state [7][8]. - Aluminum alloy is in the off - season. The futures price fluctuates with aluminum prices. The supply of scrap and raw aluminum remains tight, and the cost side supports prices. Attention should be paid to cross - variety arbitrage opportunities in the 11 - contract [9]. 3. Key Data Summary Aluminum Spot - On July 30, 2025, the price of East China A00 aluminum was 20,670 yuan/ton, with a change of 50 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The East China aluminum spot premium and discount was - 10 yuan/ton, a change of - 10 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The price of Central China A00 aluminum was 20,500 yuan/ton, and the spot premium and discount was - 180 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous trading day. The price of Foshan A00 aluminum was 20,660 yuan/ton, a change of 60 yuan/ton from the previous trading day, and the aluminum spot premium and discount was - 20 yuan/ton, a change of - 5 yuan/ton from the previous trading day [1]. Aluminum Futures - On July 30, 2025, the main contract of Shanghai aluminum opened at 20,585 yuan/ton, closed at 20,625 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous trading day. The highest price was 20,675 yuan/ton, and the lowest was 20,570 yuan/ton. The trading volume was 125,168 lots, and the position was 261,363 lots [2]. Inventory - As of July 30, 2025, the domestic social inventory of electrolytic aluminum ingots was 533,000 tons, a change of 2.3 tons from the previous period. The warehouse receipt inventory was 51,217 tons, a change of - 1,857 tons from the previous trading day. The LME aluminum inventory was 460,350 tons, a change of 4,250 tons from the previous trading day. The social inventory of aluminum alloy was 43,200 tons, and the in - factory inventory was 63,600 tons [2][4]. Alumina Spot Price - On July 30, 2025, the SMM alumina price in Shanxi was 3,250 yuan/ton, in Shandong was 3,230 yuan/ton, in Henan was 3,240 yuan/ton, in Guangxi was 3,300 yuan/ton, in Guizhou was 3,315 yuan/ton, and the FOB price of Australian alumina was 380 US dollars/ton [2]. Alumina Futures - On July 30, 2025, the main contract of alumina opened at 3,349 yuan/ton, closed at 3,326 yuan/ton, a change of 54 yuan/ton (1.65%) from the previous trading day's closing price. The highest price was 3,406 yuan/ton, and the lowest was 3,286 yuan/ton. The trading volume was 567,566 lots, and the position was 148,574 lots [2]. Aluminum Alloy Price - On July 30, 2025, the purchase price of Baotai civil raw aluminum was 15,100 yuan/ton, and the purchase price of mechanical raw aluminum was 15,300 yuan/ton, both unchanged from the previous day. The Baotai quotation for ADC12 was 19,600 yuan/ton, also unchanged from the previous day [3]. Aluminum Alloy Cost and Profit - The theoretical total cost of aluminum alloy was 20,078 yuan/ton, and the theoretical profit was - 278 yuan/ton [5]. 4. Strategy - Unilateral: Maintain a neutral stance on aluminum, alumina, and aluminum alloy [10]. - Arbitrage: Conduct long - short arbitrage on Shanghai aluminum and go long on AD11 while shorting AL11 [10].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information about the report industry investment rating in the provided content. 2. Core Views - For copper, the current demand is seasonally weak due to the downstream off - season and weakened trans - shipment motivation, but the balance will be tight after August. The annual apparent demand is expected to be in the range of 4.8% - 5.5%. A short - term cautious but long - term bullish view is maintained on Shanghai copper, and virtual inventory can be considered for establishment in the third quarter [1]. - For aluminum, supply increased slightly from January to May, and August is a seasonal off - season for demand. Inventory may continue to accumulate slightly in August. The short - term fundamentals are okay, and attention should be paid to demand, as well as far - month and inside - outside reverse arbitrage opportunities under the low - inventory pattern [1][2]. - For zinc, the price fluctuated narrowly this week. Supply is expected to increase, demand is seasonally weak, and inventories at home and abroad show different trends. Short - term suggestions are to wait and see, pay attention to commodity sentiment, and manage positions. Inside - outside positive arbitrage can be held, and attention can be paid to month - spread positive arbitrage opportunities [5]. - For nickel, the supply of pure nickel remains high, demand is weak, and inventories at home and abroad are stable. The short - term fundamentals are average, and attention can be paid to the opportunity of narrowing the nickel - stainless steel price ratio [6]. - For stainless steel, supply has been reduced, demand is mainly for rigid needs, costs are stable, and inventories have decreased slightly. The fundamentals are weak, and attention should be paid to policy trends [6][7]. - For lead, the price declined slightly this week. Supply and demand have small changes, and there are expectations of inventory accumulation. The price is expected to fluctuate between 16,800 and 17,500 next week [8][9]. - For tin, the price fluctuated widely. Supply may decline slightly in July - August, demand is weak, and the domestic market is in a situation of both supply and demand being weak. Short - term suggestions are to wait and see or short - sell lightly at high prices [12]. - For industrial silicon, the production of Hesheng may change the supply - demand balance. If the start - up rate does not recover significantly, the disk is expected to fluctuate. If the resumption of production accelerates, the supply will be in excess, and the price may decline [15]. - For lithium carbonate, the current situation is strong supply and demand, with significant inventory pressure in the intermediate links. The trading focus has shifted to potential supply disturbances. If the risks are resolved, the price may remain low and fluctuate [17]. 3. Summary by Metals Copper - **Market Data**: From July 23 to 29, the spot premium of Shanghai copper decreased from 180 to 110, and the warehouse receipt increased by 251. The spot import profit increased by 216.25, and the three - month import profit increased by 203.83 [1]. - **Analysis**: The demand is currently weak, but the balance will be tight after August. The annual apparent demand is expected to be in the 4.8% - 5.5% range. A short - term cautious but long - term bullish view is maintained, and virtual inventory can be considered for establishment in the third quarter [1]. Aluminum - **Market Data**: From July 23 to 29, the Shanghai aluminum ingot price decreased by 40, and the domestic alumina price increased by 1. The social inventory showed a small change, and the exchange inventory remained the same [1]. - **Analysis**: Supply increased slightly from January to May, August is a seasonal off - season for demand, and inventory may continue to accumulate slightly. The short - term fundamentals are okay, and attention should be paid to demand and arbitrage opportunities [1][2]. Zinc - **Market Data**: From July 23 to 29, the zinc price fluctuated narrowly. The domestic social inventory increased slightly, and the LME inventory decreased by 3,350. The import profit of Shanghai zinc increased [5]. - **Analysis**: Supply is expected to increase, demand is seasonally weak, and inventories at home and abroad show different trends. Short - term suggestions are to wait and see, pay attention to commodity sentiment, and manage positions. Inside - outside positive arbitrage can be held, and attention can be paid to month - spread positive arbitrage opportunities [5]. Nickel - **Market Data**: From July 23 to 29, the price of 1.5% Philippine nickel ore remained unchanged, and the price of Shanghai nickel decreased by 900. The import profit of spot nickel decreased by 660.34 [6]. - **Analysis**: The supply of pure nickel remains high, demand is weak, and inventories at home and abroad are stable. The short - term fundamentals are average, and attention can be paid to the opportunity of narrowing the nickel - stainless steel price ratio [6]. Stainless Steel - **Market Data**: From July 23 to 29, the prices of 304 cold - rolled, 304 hot - rolled, 201 cold - rolled, and 430 cold - rolled stainless steel remained unchanged [6]. - **Analysis**: Supply has been reduced, demand is mainly for rigid needs, costs are stable, and inventories have decreased slightly. The fundamentals are weak, and attention should be paid to policy trends [6][7]. Lead - **Market Data**: From July 23 to 29, the spot premium of lead increased by 10, and the LME inventory increased by 6,700. The import profit of spot lead increased by 71.14 [8]. - **Analysis**: The price declined slightly this week. Supply and demand have small changes, and there are expectations of inventory accumulation. The price is expected to fluctuate between 16,800 and 17,500 next week [8][9]. Tin - **Market Data**: From July 23 to 29, the spot import profit of tin decreased by 2,016.08, and the LME inventory increased by 35. The LME C - 3M increased by 31 [12]. - **Analysis**: The price fluctuated widely. Supply may decline slightly in July - August, demand is weak, and the domestic market is in a situation of both supply and demand being weak. Short - term suggestions are to wait and see or short - sell lightly at high prices [12]. Industrial Silicon - **Market Data**: From July 23 to 29, the 421 Yunnan basis and 421 Sichuan basis changed, and the 553 East China basis and 553 Tianjin basis also changed. The number of warehouse receipts changed slightly [15]. - **Analysis**: The production of Hesheng may change the supply - demand balance. If the start - up rate does not recover significantly, the disk is expected to fluctuate. If the resumption of production accelerates, the supply will be in excess, and the price may decline [15]. Lithium Carbonate - **Market Data**: From July 23 to 29, the SMM electric - grade lithium carbonate price decreased by 750, and the SMM industrial - grade lithium carbonate price decreased by 700. The basis of the main contract increased by 1,530 [17]. - **Analysis**: The current situation is strong supply and demand, with significant inventory pressure in the intermediate links. The trading focus has shifted to potential supply disturbances. If the risks are resolved, the price may remain low and fluctuate [17].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Aluminium: Neutral [9] - Alumina: Neutral [9] - Aluminium alloy: Neutral [9] 2. Core Views of the Report - Aluminium prices lack upward elasticity due to the consumption off - season and inventory accumulation. The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology's plan has no impact on the supply side, but policy support for the consumption side should be monitored. There is a risk of a squeeze in the 08 contract, and the long - term logic is supply constraints and expected consumption growth [6]. - The alumina supply side continues to resume production due to profit incentives, with an oversupply situation and expectations remaining unchanged. The inventory accumulation speed is increasing. There are still problems with the warehouse receipts, and the registration speed of warehouse receipts needs further observation. The long - term oversupply expectation remains, and the spot market is becoming more cautious [6][7]. - Aluminium alloy is in the consumption off - season, with the price following the aluminium price. The supply of scrap and primary aluminium is tight, and the cost side supports the price. Attention should be paid to cross - variety arbitrage opportunities in the 11 - contract [8]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Important Data Aluminium Spot - East China A00 aluminium price is 20,620 yuan/ton, a change of - 40 yuan/ton from the previous trading day; the spot premium is 0 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous trading day. - Central China A00 aluminium price is 20,440 yuan/ton, and the spot premium has changed by 10 yuan/ton to - 180 yuan/ton. - Foshan A00 aluminium price is 20,600 yuan/ton, a change of - 50 yuan/ton from the previous trading day, and the spot premium has changed by - 10 yuan/ton to - 15 yuan/ton [1]. Aluminium Futures - On July 29, 2025, the main SHFE aluminium contract opened at 20,635 yuan/ton, closed at 20,605 yuan/ton, a change of - 45 yuan/ton from the previous trading day, with a high of 20,695 yuan/ton and a low of 20,570 yuan/ton. The trading volume was 119,985 lots, and the position was 272,707 lots [2]. Inventory - As of July 29, 2025, the domestic social inventory of electrolytic aluminium ingots was 533,000 tons, a change of 2.3 tons from the previous period; the warehouse receipt inventory was 53,074 tons, a change of - 524 tons from the previous trading day; the LME aluminium inventory was 456,100 tons, a change of 1,825 tons from the previous trading day [2]. Alumina Spot Price - On July 29, 2025, the SMM alumina price in Shanxi was 3,240 yuan/ton, in Shandong was 3,220 yuan/ton, in Henan was 3,240 yuan/ton, in Guangxi was 3,300 yuan/ton, in Guizhou was 3,315 yuan/ton, and the Australian alumina FOB price was 380 US dollars/ton [2]. Alumina Futures - On July 29, 2025, the main alumina contract opened at 3,259 yuan/ton, closed at 3,307 yuan/ton, a change of 33 yuan/ton (1.01%) from the previous trading day's closing price, with a high of 3,311 yuan/ton and a low of 3,230 yuan/ton. The trading volume was 472,199 lots, and the position was 158,124 lots [2]. Aluminium Alloy Price - On July 29, 2025, the Baotai purchase price of civil primary aluminium was 15,100 yuan/ton, and the purchase price of mechanical primary aluminium was 15,300 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day. The Baotai quotation of ADC12 was 19,600 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day [3]. Aluminium Alloy Inventory - The social inventory of aluminium alloy was 43,200 tons, and the in - plant inventory was 63,600 tons [4]. Aluminium Alloy Cost and Profit - The theoretical total cost was 20,078 yuan/ton, and the theoretical profit was - 278 yuan/ton [5]. 3.2 Market Analysis Electrolytic Aluminium - Aluminium prices lack upward momentum due to the consumption off - season and inventory accumulation. There is a risk of a squeeze in the 08 contract. The long - term logic is supply constraints and expected consumption growth [6]. Alumina - The supply side continues to resume production, with an oversupply situation and expectations remaining unchanged. There are problems with warehouse receipts, and the registration speed of warehouse receipts needs further observation. The long - term oversupply expectation remains, and the spot market is becoming more cautious [6][7]. Aluminium Alloy - Aluminium alloy is in the consumption off - season, with the price following the aluminium price. The supply of scrap and primary aluminium is tight, and the cost side supports the price. Attention should be paid to cross - variety arbitrage opportunities in the 11 - contract [8]. 3.3 Strategy - Unilateral: Neutral for aluminium, alumina, and aluminium alloy. - Arbitrage: SHFE aluminium positive spread and long AD11 short AL11 [9].

Report Title and Date - The report is titled "Non-ferrous Metals Weekly Report (Alumina, Electrolytic Aluminum, and Aluminum Alloys)" dated July 29, 2025 [1] Core Viewpoints - The optimistic expectations of China's anti-involution policy are initially alleviated, and the reality of loose supply and demand suppresses domestic aluminum prices. Traditional consumption off - season inventory accumulation expectations also have a negative impact on prices [1] Industry Investment Ratings - No industry investment ratings are provided in the report Alumina Supply - Side Situation - Domestic: The first - phase 500,000 - ton high - sulfur bauxite desulfurization project in Qingzhen started producing 440,000 tons/year of aluminum concentrate in June, which may increase domestic bauxite production and import in July. Multiple domestic alumina capacity expansion and construction projects are in progress, which may increase China's alumina production in July. The average daily full production cost of Chinese alumina is about 2,850 yuan/ton [3] - Overseas: Nanshan Aluminum's Indonesian Bintan Alumina Phase III project and SPIC's Guinea Aluminum Project Phase II may increase overseas alumina production in July [3] Investment Strategy - Due to the increase in the price of imported Guinea bauxite pushing up production costs, but the easing of optimistic expectations of the anti - involution policy and the loose supply - demand expectation, the alumina price may be adjusted. It is recommended that investors wait and see, focusing on the support level around 3,000 - 3,200 and the pressure level around 3,500 - 3,800 [3] Basis and Month - Spread - The alumina basis is negative and at a low level, and the month - spread is positive and basically at a low level. It is recommended that investors go long on the alumina basis at low levels [12] Inventory - The inventory of alumina in Chinese ports and on the SHFE has increased compared with last week [13][15] Electrolytic Aluminum Supply - Side Situation - Domestic: Multiple domestic electrolytic aluminum capacity transfer and new construction projects may increase domestic electrolytic aluminum production in July. The theoretical weighted average full cost of domestic electrolytic aluminum is about 16,650 yuan/ton [4][58] - Import: Multiple overseas factors may increase domestic electrolytic aluminum imports in July [4][61] Investment Strategy - Although the probability of the Fed cutting interest rates in September is increasing, due to the easing of optimistic expectations of the anti - involution policy and the suppression of downstream demand in the traditional consumption off - season, the Shanghai aluminum price may be adjusted. It is recommended that investors wait and see, focusing on the support level around 20,000 - 20,300 and the pressure level around 21,000 - 21,500 for Shanghai aluminum, and the support level around 2,300 - 2,500 and the pressure level around 2,700 - 2,800 for LME aluminum [5] Basis and Month - Spread - The Shanghai aluminum basis and month - spread are positive and within a reasonable range. It is recommended that investors wait and see [37] - The LME aluminum (0 - 3) month - spread is positive and at a relatively high level, and the (3 - 15) month - spread is negative. It is recommended that investors wait and see for LME aluminum month - spread arbitrage opportunities [40] Inventory - The social inventory of Chinese electrolytic aluminum has increased compared with last week. The inventory in the bonded area has decreased, and the inventory in LME and COMEX has changed differently [42][44] Aluminum Alloys Supply - Side Situation - Scrap aluminum: The production and import of Chinese scrap aluminum in July may increase due to the positive and rising daily spread between refined and scrap aluminum [64][66] - Primary aluminum alloy: The daily full production cost of Chinese primary aluminum alloy is 20,550 yuan/ton, and the capacity utilization rate remains flat compared with last week [69] - Recycled aluminum alloy: The daily full production cost of Chinese recycled aluminum alloy ADC12 is 19,900 yuan/ton with negative profit, and the capacity utilization rate has decreased compared with last week [77] Investment Strategy - Although the probability of the Fed cutting interest rates in September is increasing, the production of domestic recycled aluminum alloy is still in the red. Due to the easing of optimistic expectations of the anti - involution policy, the price of cast aluminum alloy may be adjusted. It is recommended that investors wait and see, focusing on the support level around 19,800 - 19,900 and the pressure level around 20,200 - 20,300 [7] Inventory - The social inventory of Chinese aluminum alloys has increased compared with last week. The raw material and finished - product inventory of recycled aluminum alloy enterprises has decreased [87][90] Downstream Processing Enterprises - The weekly capacity utilization rate of Chinese aluminum downstream leading processing enterprises has decreased compared with last week due to the intersection of the easing of Sino - US mutual tariffs and the traditional consumption off - season [93][95]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - Domestic black commodities have peaked and declined. With the approaching effective date of new US tariffs, market sentiment cooled significantly during the night session on Friday. If there are no unexpected statements from the domestic Politburo meeting and the Fed's interest rate meeting this week, market sentiment is expected to be under pressure. Domestically, the relatively low aluminum ingot inventory supports aluminum prices. However, due to the off - season for downstream demand and weakening export demand, the rebound of aluminum prices will be limited, and overall prices may fluctuate weakly. The operating range for the domestic main contract this week is estimated to be 20,200 - 20,800 yuan/ton, and for LME Aluminum 3M, it is 2,550 - 2,660 US dollars/ton [13][14]. Summary by Directory 1. Week - on - Week Assessment and Strategy Recommendation - **Supply**: As of the end of June, the domestic electrolytic aluminum operating capacity was about 43.83 million tons. Due to capacity replacement, the operating capacity decreased slightly, and the industry's production rate declined month - on - month. The output was 3.609 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of about 3.2% due to the number of days, and a year - on - year increase of 1.6%. In July, the replacement project in Yunnan was put into operation, and the overall electrolytic aluminum operating capacity will remain at a high level [13]. - **Inventory & Spot**: The domestic aluminum ingot inventory increased by 180,000 tons to 5.1 million tons; the bonded area inventory decreased by 50,000 tons to 1.11 million tons; the LME market aluminum inventory increased by 200,000 tons to 4.51 million tons. On Friday, the domestic aluminum ingot spot price was at a premium of 10 yuan/ton over the futures price, and the LME market Cash/3M was at a premium of 1.0 US dollars/ton [13]. - **Imports and Exports**: In June 2025, China exported 490,000 tons of unwrought aluminum and aluminum products, a month - on - month decrease of over 50,000 tons. The cumulative export volume from January to June was 2.92 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 8%. Recently, the loss in domestic aluminum spot imports has widened [13]. - **Demand**: According to Aizec Consulting's research, the weekly operating rate of aluminum products continued to decline, and the operating conditions of aluminum sheets, foils, rods, bars, profiles, and alloys all weakened. Currently, the downstream is in the off - season, and most buyers in the aluminum spot market are cautious and waiting [13]. 2. Futures and Spot Market - **Futures Market**: The Shanghai Aluminum main contract rose 1.22% week - on - week (as of Friday's close), while LME Aluminum closed down 0.27% at 2,631 US dollars/ton [24]. - **Term Spread**: The monthly spread continued to decline [29]. - **Spot Basis**: The aluminum ingot basis in major domestic regions weakened [32]. - **Regional Premium/Discount Spread**: The spot prices in East and South China were relatively strong [37]. - **LME Premium/Discount**: LME Aluminum Cash/3M had a slight premium [40]. 3. Profit and Inventory - **Electrolytic Aluminum Smelting Profit**: The aluminum smelting profit decreased to 3,729 yuan/ton, but the absolute level remained high [46]. - **Electrolytic Aluminum Inventory**: According to SMM data, the domestic aluminum ingot social inventory was 5.1 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 180,000 tons; the bonded area inventory decreased by 50,000 tons to 1.11 million tons [49]. - **Aluminum Bar Inventory**: The aluminum bar inventory was 146,000 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 11,000 tons, and the combined inventory of aluminum bars and ingots increased week - on - week [52]. - **LME Inventory**: LME inventory increased by 200,000 tons to 4.51 million tons due to warehousing [55]. 4. Cost Side - **Bauxite Price**: No specific price change details were provided in the text. - **Alumina Price**: The domestic alumina price increased, and the overseas alumina price rose slightly [64]. - **Electrolytic Aluminum Smelting Cost**: The anode price remained flat, and the thermal coal price continued to rebound [69]. 5. Supply Side - **Alumina**: In June, China's actual operating alumina capacity increased by 3.1%, the production rate was 79.7%, and the output increased by 6.1% year - on - year, with overall sufficient supply [74]. - **Electrolytic Aluminum**: As of the end of June, the domestic electrolytic aluminum operating capacity was about 43.83 million tons. Due to capacity replacement, the operating capacity decreased slightly, and the industry's production rate declined month - on - month. The output was 3.609 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of about 3.2% due to the number of days, and a year - on - year increase of 1.6%. In July, the replacement project in Yunnan was put into operation, and the overall electrolytic aluminum operating capacity will remain at a high level [77]. - **Aluminum Water Ratio**: The aluminum bar processing fee fluctuated and rebounded but remained at a relatively low level. In June, the aluminum water ratio increased by 0.3 percentage points and continued to rise slightly. It is expected to decline in July [80]. 6. Demand Side - **Aluminum Products Output and Aluminum Ingot Outbound**: In June, the operating rate of aluminum bars, profiles, primary aluminum alloy ingots, and aluminum rods declined; the operating rate of aluminum sheets, foils, and strips increased slightly; the operating rate of recycled aluminum alloy ingots rebounded but recently showed weakness [85][89][93][96]. - **Terminal Demand**: In July 2025, the production schedules of household air conditioners, refrigerators, and washing machines all decreased compared to the actual production in the same period last year, indicating a weakening of overall home - appliance - related demand. Current real - estate data remained weak, automobile production and sales were fair, and photovoltaic - related demand also faced pressure [99]. 7. Imports and Exports - **Aluminum Ingot and Primary Aluminum Imports**: In June 2025, China's primary aluminum imports were 192,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 13.8% and a year - on - year increase of 58.7%. The cumulative import volume from January to June was 1.249 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 2.5%. Recently, the loss in aluminum ingot spot imports has widened [102]. - **Aluminum Products Exports and Recycled Aluminum Imports**: In June 2025, China exported 490,000 tons of unwrought aluminum and aluminum products, a month - on - month decrease of over 50,000 tons. The cumulative export volume from January to June was 2.92 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 8%. In June, the recycled aluminum imports were 156,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 40,000 tons and a year - on - year increase of 11.5%. The cumulative imports in the first six months were 1.012 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 6.9% [108]. - **Bauxite and Alumina Imports and Exports**: In June 2025, China imported 18.12 million tons of bauxite, a year - on - year increase of 36.2%. The cumulative bauxite imports from January to June were 103.25 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 33.6%. In June, China exported 171,000 tons of alumina, a month - on - month decrease of 17.7% and a year - on - year increase of 9.0%. The cumulative alumina exports from January to June were 1.34 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 65.7% [111].

Report Industry Investment Rating No information is provided in the report regarding the industry investment rating. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Alumina: The raw - material supply is sufficient, with the import volume of bauxite in China increasing and port inventories accumulating. The supply is relatively abundant in the short - term and may converge in the long - term due to the "anti - involution" policy. The demand from electrolytic aluminum is stable as its production capacity approaches the upper limit. Overall, the alumina industry is expected to improve [6]. - Electrolytic aluminum: The supply is relatively stable as the production capacity is close to the upper limit, but the demand is weak due to the off - season. However, long - term consumption expectations are positive, and industrial inventories are slightly accumulating [6]. - Cast aluminum: The supply and demand are both weak. The supply is affected by the tight supply of scrap aluminum, and the demand is weak due to the off - season, resulting in inventory accumulation and pressure on prices [8]. Summary According to the Directory 1. Weekly Key Points Summary - **Market Performance**: Shanghai Aluminum (SHFE Aluminum) showed a slightly stronger oscillatory trend, rising 1.22% to 20,760 yuan/ton. Alumina also trended stronger, rising 9.42% to 3,428 yuan/ton. Cast aluminum rose 1.31% to 20,135 yuan/ton [6][8]. - **Market Outlook**: Alumina is in a stage of sufficient supply and stable demand; electrolytic aluminum has stable supply, weak short - term demand, and positive long - term consumption expectations; cast aluminum has weak supply and demand and accumulating inventory [6][8]. - **Strategy Recommendations**: Trade the main contract of SHFE Aluminum lightly with an oscillatory strategy, and go short - term long on the main contract of alumina at low prices [6]. 2. Futures and Spot Markets - **Futures Price Changes**: As of July 25, 2025, SHFE Aluminum closed at 20,775 yuan/ton, up 1.02% from July 18; LME Aluminum closed at 2,646 dollars/ton on July 24, up 2.2% from July 18. Alumina futures rose 9.47% to 3,446 yuan/ton, and cast aluminum futures rose 1.31% to 20,135 yuan/ton [11][15]. - **Ratio and Spread Changes**: The SHFE - LME ratio of electrolytic aluminum was 7.86 on July 25, up 0.01 from July 18. The aluminum - zinc futures spread was 2,125 yuan/ton on July 25, up 340 yuan/ton from July 18, and the copper - aluminum futures spread was 58,490 yuan/ton, up 590 yuan/ton [12][23]. - **Spot Price Changes**: On July 25, 2025, the average price of alumina in Henan, Shanxi, and Guiyang rose, with increases of 1.74%, 1.89%, and 1.89% respectively. The national average price of cast aluminum alloy (ADC12) rose 0.5%. The A00 aluminum ingot spot price rose 0.19% to 20,800 yuan/ton, and the spot premium was 10 yuan/ton, down 110 yuan/ton from last week [27][28][31]. 3. Industry Situation - **Inventory**: As of July 24, 2025, LME electrolytic aluminum inventory increased by 4.89%, SHFE inventory increased by 5.45%, and domestic social inventory increased by 7.19%. SHFE electrolytic aluminum warehouse receipts decreased by 17.84% on July 25, and LME registered warehouse receipts increased by 3.23% on July 24 [36]. - **Raw Material Supply**: In June 2025, the import of bauxite increased by 3.45% month - on - month and 36.21% year - on - year; from January to June, the import increased by 33.61% year - on - year. The nine - port inventory of bauxite increased by 188 tons [39]. - **Production and Trade**: In June 2025, the production of alumina, electrolytic aluminum, and various aluminum products increased year - on - year. The import and export of some products also changed, such as an increase in the import of electrolytic aluminum and a decrease in the export of some aluminum products [48][51][55]. - **Downstream Markets**: The real estate market declined slightly in June 2025, while infrastructure investment was positive, and automobile production and sales increased year - on - year [68][71]. 4. Options Market Analysis - **Strategy Recommendation**: Considering the expected slight oscillatory trend of aluminum prices in the future, a double - selling strategy can be considered to short volatility [75].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Aluminum: Cautiously bullish - Alumina: Cautiously bearish - Aluminum alloy: Cautiously bullish [7] Core Viewpoints - For electrolytic aluminum, the seasonal off - season is obvious with falling downstream开工率 and production, and potential inventory accumulation. Long - term, supply limitation and stable consumption growth are the main logic, and the long - term outlook remains optimistic despite short - term price fluctuations [3]. - Alumina supply is in a slight surplus, with inventory accumulation accelerating. Spot prices are short - term strong, but long - term surplus is expected. Cost of bauxite is under pressure, and there are still factors in the warehouse receipt game [4][5]. - Aluminum alloy is in the consumption off - season, with prices following aluminum prices. There is support from the cost side, and attention should be paid to cross - variety arbitrage opportunities [6]. Summary by Related Content Key Data Aluminum - Spot: On July 24, 2025, Yangtze River A00 aluminum price was 20720 yuan/ton, down 130 yuan/ton from the previous trading day; Zhongyuan A00 aluminum price was 20520 yuan/ton; Foshan A00 aluminum price was 20710 yuan/ton [1]. - Futures: On July 24, 2025, the main contract of Shanghai aluminum opened at 20780 yuan/ton, closed at 20760 yuan/ton, down 85 yuan/ton or - 0.41% from the previous trading day, with a trading volume of 145349 lots and a position of 309943 lots [1]. - Inventory: As of July 24, 2025, domestic electrolytic aluminum ingot social inventory was 510,000 tons, and LME aluminum inventory was 448,100 tons, up 3300 tons from the previous day [1]. Alumina - Spot: On July 24, 2025, SMM alumina prices in Shanxi, Shandong, and Guangxi were 3240 yuan/ton, 3220 yuan/ton, and 3300 yuan/ton respectively, and the FOB price of Australian alumina was 380 US dollars/ton [2]. - Futures: On July 24, 2025, the main contract of alumina opened at 3361 yuan/ton, closed at 3427 yuan/ton, up 8 yuan/ton or 0.23% from the previous trading day, with a trading volume of 786570 lots and a position of 189037 lots [2]. Aluminum Alloy - Price: On July 23, 2025, Baotai's purchase prices of civil and mechanical primary aluminum were 15300 yuan/ton and 15500 yuan/ton respectively, down 100 yuan/ton from the previous day; ADC12 Baotai's quote was 19700 yuan/ton, down 100 yuan/ton [2]. - Inventory: The social inventory of aluminum alloy was 43,200 tons, up 6000 tons week - on - week; the in - factory inventory was 63,600 tons, down 300 tons week - on - week; the total inventory was 106,800 tons, up 5700 tons week - on - week [2]. Market Analysis Electrolytic Aluminum - The seasonal off - season is evident, with falling downstream开工率, production, and processing fees facing losses. Social inventory shows a slight accumulation trend, but the long - term logic is supply limitation and stable consumption growth. Short - term price increase lacks fundamental support, but the long - term outlook is optimistic [3]. Alumina - Supply is in a slight surplus, with accelerating inventory accumulation. Spot prices are short - term strong. The cost of bauxite is under pressure, and there are still factors in the warehouse receipt game. Long - term surplus is expected [4][5]. Aluminum Alloy - It is in the consumption off - season, with prices following aluminum prices. The supply of scrap and primary aluminum is tight, and there is support from the cost side. Attention should be paid to cross - variety arbitrage opportunities for the 11 - contract [6]. Strategy - Unilateral: Bullish on aluminum, bearish on alumina, and bullish on aluminum alloy with caution [7]. - Arbitrage: Long - short arbitrage in Shanghai aluminum and long AD11 short AL11 [7]