1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Copper: Oscillating [4] - Alumina: Medium - to long - term oscillating weakly, short - term consider cautious short - selling for far - month contracts [5] - Aluminum: Short - term oscillating, medium - term oscillating weakly [7] - Aluminum Alloy: Spot AD is weak in the off - season, and the futures price is pressured following the trend of electrolytic aluminum [8] - Zinc: Oscillating weakly [9] - Lead: Oscillating [15] - Nickel: Oscillating weakly in the short - term, suggest long - term position take profit [20] - Stainless Steel: Oscillating in the short - term [25] - Tin: Oscillating [26] 2. Core Viewpoints - The US dollar hits a new low this year, and non - ferrous metals reach a new high since early April. In the short - to medium - term, the weak US dollar, low LME inventories, and weak demand expectations are intertwined, leading non - ferrous metals to oscillate upward. Focus on structural opportunities and cautiously consider short - term long opportunities for copper, aluminum, and tin. In the long - term, the demand outlook for base metals remains uncertain, and consider short - selling opportunities for some oversupplied or expected - to - be - oversupplied varieties on price rallies [1] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1行情观点 3.1.1 Copper - The US dollar index declines, and copper prices remain high. The Fed maintains the federal funds rate, and a major global copper mine initiates mid - year negotiations. China's electrolytic copper production increases. Spot premiums rise, and inventories slightly increase. Macro factors boost copper prices, and supply risks exist while demand is in the off - season. The short - term outlook is high - level oscillation [4] 3.1.2 Alumina - Weekly inventories increase, and the futures spread is high. Spot prices mostly decline, and overseas transactions show price increases. In the short - to medium - term, there is no shortage of ore, and the spot price center moves down. The long - term situation is affected by events, and the outlook is medium - to long - term oscillation with a weakening trend [5] 3.1.3 Aluminum - Regional premiums and discounts are differentiated, and the electrolytic aluminum futures oscillate. Prices decline slightly, and inventories show a mixed trend. In the short - term, there is inventory accumulation, and in the medium - term, consumption may face pressure [7] 3.1.4 Aluminum Alloy - Spot trading is light, and the aluminum alloy futures oscillate. The off - season pressure on the automotive industry is high, and the electrolytic aluminum situation eases. In the long - term, there is an expected seasonal increase in demand, and the futures price follows the trend of electrolytic aluminum [8] 3.1.5 Zinc - The supply - demand fundamentals remain unchanged, and consider short - selling opportunities on price rallies. Spot premiums vary, and inventories slightly decline. Macro factors are neutral, supply is loosening, and demand is in the off - season. The outlook is oscillating weakly [12] 3.1.6 Lead - The off - season of consumption is coming to an end, and lead prices oscillate. Spot prices and inventories show certain changes. Supply decreases slightly, and demand is recovering. The outlook is oscillation [15] 3.1.7 Nickel - Market sentiment improves, and long - term positions should be gradually taken profit. LME and domestic inventories change, and there are various industry developments. Market sentiment dominates, and the industry fundamentals are weakening. The short - term outlook is wide - range oscillation [20] 3.1.8 Stainless Steel - The expectation of supply contraction increases, and the futures price continues to rise. Futures and spot prices change, and the price of Indonesian nickel ore is affected by the rainy season. Cost support weakens, and the short - term outlook is range - bound oscillation [25] 3.1.9 Tin - Supply disturbances reappear, and tin prices oscillate. Warehouse receipts and spot prices change. The supply from the main producing areas is tight, and the fundamentals are resilient. The outlook is oscillation [26] 3.2行情监测 - The document does not provide specific content for this part, so it is skipped.

有色金属专场 - 年度中期策略会 20260626 摘要 铜价 2024 年上半年受中国需求、美国物流套利及市场博弈驱动上涨， 伦铜需突破 9,580 美元或触及 10,000 美元面临技术阻力，下半年关注 美国 232 关税政策、国内消费淡季及矿产供应变化等不确定性因素。 铜市场长线投资逻辑在于电力电网升级和新增消费领域带来的需求增长， 但矿产供应增速可能难以跟上，2024 年矿产供应增量超预期，2025 年 可能下降，2026 年可能较高，2027 年可能出现供应问题。 锡市场价格波动受矿损事件和供应预期影响，加工费极低。光伏产业对 锡需求至关重要，但美国对东盟光伏电池征税带来不确定性。半导体销 售周期预计下半年达峰值，AI 基础设施投资影响传统 3C 品类出口。 铝市场需求韧性较强，全年过剩压力较低。铜铝价格走势与去年相关， 近期铝偏强。铝产业链利润重新分配，电解铝利润较好，上游矿端利润 压缩，氧化铝困难，下游加工端利润下降。 几内亚铝土矿发运量维持高位，预计 2025 年增量可观。中国铝土矿进 口量增长，但存在过剩。几内亚事件后铝土矿价格下跌后企稳，预计难 以回到 70 美元以下。 Q&A 2025 ...

新能源及有色金属日报 | 2025-06-26 中东局势反复，铝价或维持震荡 重要数据 铝现货方面：SMM数据，昨日长江A00铝价录得20530元/吨，较上一交易日下跌10元/吨，长江A00铝现货升贴 水较上一交易日下跌10元/吨至130元/吨；中原A00铝价录得20360元/吨，中原A00铝现货升贴水较上一交易日 持平于-30元/吨；佛山A00铝价录20420元/吨，佛山A00铝现货升贴水较上一交易日下跌5元/吨至30元/吨。 铝期货方面：2025-06-25日沪铝主力合约开于20300元/吨，收于20355元/吨，较上一交易日收盘价上涨25元/ 吨，涨幅0.12%，最高价达20360元/吨，最低价达到20240元/吨。全天交易日成交117377手，较上一交易日减 少19256手，全天交易日持仓254015手，较上一交易日增加3930手。 库存方面，截止2025-06-23，SMM统计国内电解铝锭社会库存46.4万吨。截止2025-06-25，LME铝库存337900 吨，较前一交易日减少2000吨。 氧化铝现货价格：2025-06-25 SMM氧化铝山西价格录得3110元/吨，山东价格录得3120元/吨， ...

Summary of Conference Call Records Industry Overview - The aluminum and magnesium alloy industry is experiencing significant developments, particularly in the automotive sector, with a focus on the application of magnesium alloys as a substitute for aluminum [1][2][4][10]. Key Points on Aluminum Industry - **Alumina Supply and Demand**: The supply-demand balance for bauxite is expected to remain loose in 2025, leading to stable profits for electrolytic aluminum throughout the year [1][3]. - **Electrolytic Aluminum Profitability**: The profit logic for electrolytic aluminum remains unchanged, with the price expected to rebound above 20,000 yuan despite fluctuations in alumina prices and tariff impacts [3][9]. - **Market Dynamics**: The second quarter of 2025 saw a tariff adjustment that exerted downward pressure on commodity prices, but the supply of electrolytic aluminum remains rigid due to near-capacity domestic production and slow overseas expansion [8][9]. - **Investment Opportunities**: Companies with low self-sufficiency rates in alumina, such as Yun Aluminum, Shenhuo, and Zhongfu, along with Tianshan Aluminum and Hongbao, are identified as having investment value due to their attractive valuations [1][9]. Key Points on Magnesium Alloy Industry - **Growth in Automotive Applications**: The application of magnesium alloys in the automotive sector is accelerating, with significant potential for demand growth as aluminum is replaced in certain segments [1][4][10]. - **Market Demand and Supply**: The global production of magnesium is around 1 million tons, while aluminum production is approximately 60-70 million tons. The demand for magnesium could multiply if aluminum is replaced in specific applications [4][10]. - **Price Stability**: Despite increased demand for magnesium in the automotive sector, it is unlikely to cause significant price spikes due to existing and anticipated production capacities that can meet the additional demand [13]. - **Key Players**: Companies like Xinyuan Zhuomei and Baowu Magnesium are positioned well in the market, with Xinyuan focusing on die-casting and Baowu leveraging integrated production advantages [14][15]. Additional Insights - **Alumina Price Trends**: The price of alumina is expected to fluctuate between 2,700 and 2,900 yuan, supported by import costs despite potential downward trends due to new capacities coming online [5]. - **Electrolytic Sodium Market**: The demand for electrolytic sodium is projected to grow significantly, driven by factors such as new energy vehicles and government policies, despite some drag from real estate and exports [6]. - **Future Outlook**: The next one to two years are anticipated to be critical for the magnesium alloy industry, with low raw material prices enhancing acceptance among automotive manufacturers and leading to significant growth opportunities for key players [16].

1. Report's Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Aluminum: The current situation remains strong, and the market is waiting for confirmation of the inventory inflection point. The high premium and low inventory situation persists, and the impact of pre - emptive export demand on subsequent demand needs dynamic observation. Attention should be paid to inventory changes and export shipping capacity. From a micro - fundamental perspective, aluminum ingot social inventory continues to decline, and downstream production and processing profits are under pressure [3]. - Alumina: It is in a dilemma of continuous复产 but low inventory. The disk is slightly supported due to tight warrant supplies. The market expects the inventory inflection point to be approaching, but inventory data from different sources shows divergence. The current price valuation is a key factor in the long - short game [4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Trading Side: Spreads, Volume, and Open Interest - **Term Spreads**: The term structure of SHFE aluminum shows a B - structure, and the B - structure of alumina term spreads narrows. The average SMM A00 aluminum premium has changed from - 210 yuan/ton to 180 yuan/ton, and the average SMM A00 aluminum (Foshan) premium has changed from - 425 yuan/ton to 50 yuan/ton. The term B - structure of alumina has narrowed, with the premium of Shandong and Henan alumina to the current month decreasing [9]. - **Monthly Spreads**: The monthly spreads of SHFE aluminum have narrowed. The spread between the near - month and the first - continuous contract has decreased from 120 yuan/ton to 95 yuan/ton, and the spread percentage has decreased from 0.58% to 0.46% [5]. - **Open Interest and Volume**: The open interest of the SHFE aluminum main contract has significantly declined, and the trading volume has also decreased. The open interest of the alumina main contract remains stable at a high level, and the trading volume has rebounded during the week [13]. - **Open Interest - to - Inventory Ratio**: The open interest - to - inventory ratio of SHFE aluminum has declined, and the open interest - to - inventory ratio of alumina has continued to fall and is at a historically low level [17]. 3.2 Inventory: Bauxite, Alumina, Electrolytic Aluminum, and Processed Materials - **Bauxite**: As of June 20, the port inventory of imported bauxite has decreased by 250,000 tons week - on - week, and the port inventory days remain the same. As of May, the port inventory and inventory days of Chinese bauxite in the阿拉丁 caliber have continued to increase. In May, the bauxite inventory of 43 sample enterprises has increased by 4.487 million tons month - on - month, and the inventory days in alumina plants have also increased. Port shipments and sea - floating inventories show differentiation, and the outbound volume has increased while the inbound volume has decreased [23][28][29]. - **Alumina**: The total national inventory has increased, with the factory inventory decreasing, the electrolytic aluminum plant inventory increasing slightly, the port inventory increasing, and the platform/in - transit inventory decreasing. The阿拉丁 full - caliber inventory has continued to decrease, with the factory inventory decreasing by 32,000 tons week - on - week, the electrolytic aluminum plant inventory increasing by 10,000 tons, the port inventory decreasing by 2,000 tons, and the yard/platform/in - transit inventory increasing by 19,000 tons [42][48]. - **Electrolytic Aluminum**: The social inventory has continued to decline rapidly. As of June 12, the weekly inventory of aluminum ingots has decreased by 13,000 tons to 450,000 tons, and the destocking rhythm has accelerated [49]. - **Aluminum Rods**: The spot inventory and factory inventory of downstream aluminum rods have increased, and the outbound volume has decreased [54]. 3.3 Production: Output, Capacity, and Operating Rate - **Bauxite**: In May, the domestic bauxite supply showed a recovery trend, but the latest data from Steel Union in May showed a decline. The supply of domestic mines in different provinces was differentiated, with production in some provinces increasing and in others decreasing [60][64]. - **Alumina**: The capacity utilization rate has rebounded. As of June 20, the total operating capacity of national alumina is 88.6 million tons, with a weekly decrease of 100,000 tons. The weekly output of domestic metallurgical - grade alumina is 1.715 million tons, a decrease of 3,000 tons from last week, and the supply - side loosening pattern remains unchanged [68]. - **Electrolytic Aluminum**: As of May, the operating capacity remains at a high level, and the capacity utilization rate has significantly rebounded due to profit repair. As of June 19, the weekly output of electrolytic aluminum is 844,700 tons, an increase of 800 tons from last week. The proportion of molten aluminum has seasonally increased [71]. - **Downstream Processing**: The output of aluminum plate, strip, and foil has continued to decline slightly, with a weekly decrease of 5,700 tons. The output of recycled aluminum rods has increased by 540 tons week - on - week, and the output of aluminum rods has increased by 1,100 tons week - on - week. The operating rate of leading downstream enterprises has declined, and each segment shows differentiation [74][77]. 3.4 Profit: Alumina, Electrolytic Aluminum, and Processed Materials - **Alumina**: The profit continues to recover. The profit of metallurgical - grade alumina according to Steel Union is 388.5 yuan/ton. The profits of alumina in Shandong, Shanxi, and Henan have all increased, and the profit performance in Guangxi is better than other regions [85]. - **Electrolytic Aluminum**: The profit remains at a high level, but complex global macro - economic situations, overseas geopolitical conflicts, and changing trade policies have increased uncertainties and interfered with market expectations [92]. - **Downstream Processing**: The processing fee of aluminum rods has significantly declined, with a weekly decrease of 50 yuan/ton, and the downstream processing profit remains at a low level [93]. 3.5 Consumption: Import and Export Profits and Losses, and Apparent Demand - **Import Profits and Losses**: The import profits and losses of alumina and SHFE aluminum have rebounded [101]. - **Export**: In May, the export of processed aluminum materials has significantly weakened. In April 2025, the export of un - wrought aluminum and aluminum products continued to increase, with a month - on - month increase of 12,000 tons. The export profits and losses of aluminum processed materials show differentiation, and export demand is hindered by trade policy adjustments [103][106]. - **Apparent Consumption**: The transaction area of commercial housing has rebounded, and automobile production has increased month - on - month [111].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Aluminum: Neutral [7] - Alumina: Cautiously bearish [7] Core Viewpoints - Energy crisis concerns are premature, and the spot price of alumina is rapidly declining [1] - Aluminum consumption shows marginal weakening, and inventory reduction is slowing down, but the absolute inventory is at a historical low. Alumina prices are in a downward trend, and the smelting profit of electrolytic aluminum is expanding [6] - The cost of alumina remains stable, while production and inventory are increasing. The spot price is falling rapidly, and the long - term oversupply pattern remains unchanged, making the price more likely to fall than rise [6] - The supply of scrap aluminum for aluminum alloy is tight, and the smelting loss is at a historically high level. Cost support is emerging, and cross - variety arbitrage can be considered [6] Summary by Related Catalogs Aluminum - **Price**: As of the week of June 20, 2025, the LME aluminum price increased by 1.79% to $2,561.5/ton, and the SHFE aluminum main contract increased by 1.06% to 20,465 yuan/ton. The LME aluminum spot premium (0 - 3) changed from -$0.42/ton last week to $11.16/ton [1] - **Supply**: As of the week of June 20, the weekly operating capacity of electrolytic aluminum remained basically stable and will maintain a steady and slight increase in the future. The built - in capacity is 45.2 million tons, the operating capacity is 44.15 million tons, a weekly increase of 10,000 tons, and the operating rate is 97.7% [1] - **Demand**: According to SMM data, the operating rate of domestic aluminum downstream aluminum profile leading enterprises decreased by 1.5% to 52.5% compared with last week, the operating rate of aluminum plate, strip and foil decreased by 1.06% to 69.36%, the output of aluminum plate, strip and foil decreased by 0.57 million tons to 372,470 tons, and the average operating rate of aluminum cables remained unchanged at 63.2% [1] - **Inventory**: As of June 19, 2025, the domestic social inventory of electrolytic aluminum ingots was 449,000 tons, a decrease of 11,000 tons from last week; the aluminum rod inventory was 134,500 tons, an increase of 7,000 tons from last week. As of June 20, 2025, the LME aluminum inventory was 342,900 tons, a decrease of 12,800 tons from the same period last week [1] - **Profit**: As of June 13, 2025, the weighted production cost of the electrolytic aluminum industry was about 17,000 yuan/ton, the immediate production profit was about 3,750 yuan/ton, and the marginal maximum production cost was 18,500 yuan/ton [2] Alumina - **Price**: As of the week of June 20, 2025, the main alumina contract price decreased by 0.17% to 2,890 yuan/ton. The spot prices in Shanxi, Henan, Shandong, Guizhou, and Guangxi decreased week - on - week, while the FOB price of imported alumina remained unchanged at $370/ton [3] - **Supply**: As of the week of June 20, according to阿拉丁 data, the national built - in capacity of alumina was 112.92 million tons, the operating capacity was 93.05 million tons, a weekly increase of 400,000 tons, and the operating rate was 82.4% [3] - **Cost**: As of the week of June 20, the quoted price of bauxite on the website remained unchanged at $74.5/ton. The seaborne freight dropped from $27/ton to $22/ton [3] - **Inventory**: As of June 20, 2025, the national alumina inventory was 3.84 million tons, an increase of 22,000 tons from last week. The raw material inventory of electrolytic aluminum plants was 2.826 million tons, a weekly increase of 18,000 tons; the platform and port inventory was 906,000 tons, a weekly decrease of 4,000 tons; the warehouse receipt inventory was 42,000 tons, a decrease of 37,000 tons [4] - **Profit**: As of June 20, 2025, based on imported ore at $75/ton, the full production cost of marginal high - cost enterprises was about 2,900 yuan/ton, and the production profit was about 350 yuan/ton. The production profit using domestic ore was about 300 yuan/ton. Alumina imports started to incur losses [4] Aluminum Alloy - **Price**: As of June 20, 2025, the Jiangxi Baotai quotation was 19,500 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 100 yuan/ton [5] - **Inventory**: The social inventory of aluminum alloy was 23,800 tons, a week - on - week increase of 1,500 tons; the in - plant inventory was 82,900 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 2,100 tons; the total inventory was 106,700 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 600 tons [5] Strategy - **Single - side trading**: Be neutral on aluminum and cautiously bearish on alumina [7] - **Arbitrage**: Conduct calendar spread arbitrage on aluminum, going long on AD11 and short on AL11 [7]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information provided regarding the report industry investment rating in the given content. 2. Core Views of the Report - **Alumina**: The raw material supply is sufficient, but due to profit - related issues, there may be production cuts. The demand from electrolytic aluminum is stable. Overall, the fundamentals are in a stage of relatively high supply and stable demand [7]. - **Electrolytic Aluminum**: The supply is expected to increase slightly, while the demand is weak due to the off - season. The fundamentals are in a state of relatively stable supply and reduced demand during the off - season [7]. - **Cast Aluminum Alloy**: It is in a situation of weak supply and demand, with a slight accumulation of industrial inventory [10]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Weekly Highlights Summary - **Market Review**: Shanghai Aluminum (SHFE Aluminum) rose first and then fell, with a weekly increase of 0.21%, closing at 20,465 yuan/ton. Alumina rebounded from a low level, with a weekly increase of 1.33%, closing at 2,890 yuan/ton. Cast Aluminum (SHFE Cast Aluminum) trended strongly, with a weekly increase of 1.08%, closing at 19,640 yuan/ton [7][10]. - **Market Outlook**: For alumina, supply may decrease slightly, and demand remains stable. For electrolytic aluminum, supply will increase slightly, and demand will decrease during the off - season. For cast aluminum alloy, both supply and demand are weak [7][10]. - **Strategy Recommendations**: For SHFE Aluminum, conduct light - position short - selling at high prices. For Alumina, conduct light - position range - bound trading. For SHFE Cast Aluminum, conduct light - position short - selling at high prices [8][10]. 3.2 Futures and Spot Market - **Futures Prices**: As of June 20, 2025, SHFE Aluminum futures fell 1.89% to 20,465 yuan/ton; LME Aluminum rose 0.24% to 2,525.5 dollars/ton; Alumina futures rose 0.67% to 2,998 yuan/ton; SHFE Cast Aluminum futures rose 1.08% to 19,640 yuan/ton [13][16]. - **Open Interest**: As of June 20, 2025, SHFE Aluminum open interest increased by 7.3% to 647,102 lots, and the net position of the top 20 increased by 14,639 lots to 4,602 lots [19]. - **Futures Spreads**: As of June 20, 2025, the aluminum - zinc futures spread increased by 5 yuan/ton to 1,380 yuan/ton, and the copper - aluminum futures spread decreased by 45 yuan/ton to 57,525 yuan/ton [24]. - **Spot Prices**: As of June 20, 2025, alumina spot prices in Henan and Shanxi decreased, while the national average price of cast aluminum alloy (ADC12) remained unchanged. SHFE Aluminum spot prices decreased [27][30]. - **LME Premium**: As of June 19, 2025, the LME aluminum near - month and 3 - month spread was - 0.03 dollars/ton, a decrease of 2.11 dollars/ton from June 12 [29]. 3.3 Industry Situation - **Inventory**: As of June 19, 2025, LME electrolytic aluminum inventory decreased by 2.99%, SHFE electrolytic aluminum inventory decreased by 5.02%, and domestic social inventory decreased by 3.05%. SHFE electrolytic aluminum warehouse receipts increased by 10.69%, and LME electrolytic aluminum registered warehouse receipts remained unchanged [35]. - **Bauxite**: In May 2025, alumina production increased. The total import volume of bauxite increased, and port inventory rose [38]. - **Scrap Aluminum**: Scrap aluminum quotes remained flat, imports increased, and exports decreased [44]. - **Alumina**: In May 2025, alumina production increased. In April 2025, imports decreased, and exports increased [47]. - **Electrolytic Aluminum**: In May 2025, electrolytic aluminum production increased. In April 2025, imports increased year - on - year [50][54]. - **Aluminum Products**: In May 2025, the total output of aluminum products increased, imports increased year - on - year, and exports decreased year - on - year [58]. - **Cast Aluminum Alloy**: In May 2025, the output of cast aluminum alloy increased [61]. - **Aluminum Alloy**: In May 2025, the total output of aluminum alloy increased, imports decreased, and exports increased [64]. - **Real Estate**: In May 2025, the real estate market declined slightly [67]. - **Infrastructure and Automobiles**: In 2024 (January - May), infrastructure investment increased. In May 2025, automobile production and sales increased year - on - year [70]. 3.4 Option Market Analysis Given that the aluminum price is expected to be range - bound and under pressure in the future, a double - selling strategy can be considered to short volatility [75].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided in the document. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - For electrolytic aluminum, in the second half of 2025, there is a split between short - term drivers and valuation. Although the growth rates of domestic production and demand will decline, there will still be a supply shortage. The price may decline, but the downward space is limited, and it is advisable to look for buying opportunities on dips. The resistance risks for price highs come from the squeeze on downstream processing profits and the movement of Russian aluminum ingots [3]. - For alumina, the driving force in the second half of 2025 remains weak, but the valuation is not high, and the mine - end interference is currently controllable. The alumina market in China and the world may be in surplus throughout the year, with the overseas market likely to be better than the domestic market in the second half of the year. There may be a new price rebound window in the domestic market in the fourth quarter [4]. - For cast aluminum alloy, in the second half of 2025, it will follow the Shanghai aluminum price unilaterally, and attention should be paid to seasonal price differences. The price of ADC12 may break through the 2024 high. The AO - AL industrial chain arbitrage can be appropriately concerned, and a long - AD short - AL position can be pre - arranged [6]. 3. Summaries According to the Table of Contents 3.1 2025 H1 Aluminum Product Line Market and Main Driving Logic Review 3.1.1 Electrolytic Aluminum - The expectation of "double - weak" production and demand in 2025 restricts the upward imagination of aluminum prices, but the actual situation is not weak, which supports the price. After the "4.3" and "5.12" tariff events, there were cross - border arbitrage opportunities. The overall price of Shanghai aluminum showed a convergent oscillation in the first half of the year [8][9][16]. 3.1.2 Alumina - Since the high point in Q4 2024, the price has almost been halved. In Q1 2025, the production was strong while the demand was weak, and the production - demand gap was significant. Capacity maintenance and mine - end disturbances provided phased boosts. After the large - scale maintenance and production reduction in March and April, the production - demand gap converged, and the inventory started to decline [19][27]. 3.1.3 Cast Aluminum Alloy - The price direction mainly follows electrolytic aluminum, but it was weaker than electrolytic aluminum in H1 2025 due to demand suppression. The ADC12 - A00 spread showed a convergent trend, and there was an extreme spread in April [29]. 3.2 2025 H1 Core Question: The Mystery of Aluminum Ingot Social Inventory and Future De - stocking 3.2.1 Aluminum Ingot and Aluminum Bar Social Inventory - The social inventory of aluminum ingots and aluminum bars was strong in H1 2025. The de - stocking time of aluminum ingots was earlier than that of the same lunar period last year, and the de - stocking slope of aluminum bars was faster. The high aluminum - water ratio and scrap - to - refined substitution were the driving factors. The estimated domestic primary aluminum apparent demand from January to June was close to 23.1086 million tons, with a year - on - year cumulative growth of 4.3% [32]. 3.2.2 Demand Side - **Photovoltaic Aluminum Consumption**: There was a "5.31" rush - installation in the photovoltaic market in H1 2025, but the turning point occurred in the middle of the year. The new global PV installation in 2025 is expected to be 520GW, with a growth rate of - 5%. The new domestic PV installation is expected to be 250GW, with a growth rate of - 10%. The PV aluminum consumption is expected to reduce the domestic primary aluminum demand growth rate by 0.7 percentage points, with a positive contribution of 0.2 percentage points in H1 and a negative contribution of 0.9 percentage points in H2 [49][50]. - **Automobile Aluminum Consumption**: The automobile industry contributed positively to the domestic primary aluminum demand growth rate in H1 2025. The global new - energy vehicle sales are expected to reach 20.78 million in 2025, with a growth rate of 22.9%. The domestic new - energy vehicle sales are expected to reach 16.36 million, with a growth rate of 27.3%. The annual contribution to the domestic primary aluminum demand growth rate is expected to be 1.2 percentage points, with 0.8 and 0.4 percentage points in H1 and H2 respectively [55][56]. - **Export Demand**: After the cancellation of export tax rebates and the impact of US tariffs, the export growth rate of aluminum products may still be positive. From January to May 2025, the cumulative export was 2.437 million tons, with a year - on - year decrease of 4.4%. The export to Mexico increased significantly, and the export of aluminum products to the US remained stable. The short - term "trade decoupling" between China and the US is not realistic [59][69]. - **Domestic Terminal Industry Consumption**: In the optimistic scenario, the demand increment of "foundation, infrastructure, and electricity" for primary aluminum in 2025 is about 1.584 million tons, boosting the demand growth rate by 3.5 percentage points. In the neutral scenario, the demand increment is about 1.019 million tons, boosting the demand growth rate by 2.3 percentage points [94][95]. 3.2.3 Supply Side - China's primary aluminum supply environment will remain in a low - growth state this year. Attention should be paid to subsequent supply - side policy disturbances and the scale of Russian aluminum imports [3]. 3.2.4 Electrolytic Aluminum Supply - Demand Balance - The Chinese and global markets are expected to be in short supply in the second half of 2025. Attention should be paid to the production capacity in Southeast Asia in the future [21]. 3.3 Alumina: Mine - End Interference is Currently Controllable, and the Production - Demand Gap Should be the Dominant Factor 3.3.1 Mine End - China's import of Guinea bauxite accounts for more than 70%. The "5.16" event may have made the market overly sensitive, but future risks may increase [4]. 3.3.2 Alumina - The production - demand gap should be the dominant factor. The reasonable valuation of the AO disk can be observed from three dimensions: the cash or full - cost position at a bauxite price of $70 - 80 per ton, the resumption of production increment and its sustainability at the current spot profit, and the resistance of the import window opening position to the spot price [4]. 3.3.3 Re - exploration of the Profit Distribution Pattern between Electrolytic Aluminum and Alumina - The strategy of going long on electrolytic aluminum plant profits in H1 2025 has been realized, and it is not easy to reverse in H2 [33]. 3.4 Cast Aluminum Alloy - The ADC12 - A00 and monthly spreads may follow seasonal rules, and the spreads are expected to widen in H2 [33]. 3.5 Conclusion and Investment Outlook - **Electrolytic Aluminum**: In H2 2025, there is a split between short - term drivers and valuation. Look for buying opportunities after the price correction [36]. - **Alumina**: The driving force is still weak, and the valuation is not high [37]. - **Cast Aluminum Alloy**: Follow the Shanghai aluminum price unilaterally, and pay attention to seasonal price differences [37]. - **Structural Strategy**: Appropriate attention can be paid to the AO - AL industrial chain arbitrage, and there is profit space in the long - AD short - AL position [38].

Group 1: Report's Overall Core View - The report provides a weekly analysis of various non - ferrous metals, including their price trends, supply - demand situations, and inventory changes, and gives corresponding investment strategies and outlooks [1] Group 2: Copper Price and Inventory Data - From June 12 - 18, 2025, the change in Shanghai copper spot price was - 40, and the change in LME inventory was - 200. Other data such as premium and import profit also showed certain changes [1] Core View - Overseas, LME copper warehouse receipts continued to be cancelled, and the LME cash - 3m structure remained at a high level. Domestic smelting enterprises' export volume was slightly higher than expected. Global visible copper inventory was in a de - stocking channel, and domestic inventory was difficult to accumulate quickly. Copper fundamentals and inventory support remained, and attention should be paid to whether orders showed signs of weakness in the off - season next week [1] Group 3: Aluminum Price and Inventory Data - From June 12 - 18, 2025, Shanghai aluminum ingot price increased by 280, and LME inventory decreased by 2100. Other data such as premium and import profit also changed [1] Core View - Supply increased slightly, and aluminum ingot imports were large from January to April. June demand was expected to weaken seasonally, with a supply - demand gap. 6 - 7 months' inventory decline was gentle. Short - term fundamentals were okay, and attention should be paid to demand. The monthly positive spread could be held if the absolute price fell [1] Group 4: Zinc Price and Inventory Data - From June 12 - 18, 2025, Shanghai zinc ingot price increased by 190, and LME inventory decreased by 625. Other data such as premium and import profit also had changes [1][2][3] Core View - This week, zinc prices fluctuated and declined. Supply side: domestic TC was unchanged, and import TC rebounded slightly. Demand side: domestic demand weakened marginally, and overseas demand in Europe was weak. Domestic social inventory fluctuated, and the inflection point of accelerated inventory accumulation was expected to appear in mid - June. The strategy was to maintain a short - allocation idea, hold the long - short spread between domestic and overseas, and pay attention to the reverse spread between months [4] Group 5: Nickel Price and Inventory Data - From June 12 - 18, 2025, Shanghai nickel spot price decreased by 200, and LME inventory decreased by 816. Other data such as premium and import profit also changed [7] Core View - Supply side: pure nickel production remained at a high level, and Russian nickel imports increased in April. Demand side: overall demand was weak, and LME premium strengthened slightly. Inventory side: overseas nickel plate inventory remained stable, and domestic inventory decreased slightly. The opportunity to shrink the nickel - stainless steel price ratio could be continuously concerned [7] Group 6: Stainless Steel Price and Inventory Data - From June 12 - 18, 2025, 304 cold - rolled coil price decreased by 50, and 430 cold - rolled coil price decreased by 50 [10] Core View - Supply side: production increased seasonally in April, and some steel mills cut production passively since late May. Demand side: mainly rigid demand. Cost: nickel - iron and chrome - iron prices remained stable. Inventory: inventory in Xijiao and Foshan increased slightly, and exchange warehouse receipts decreased. The overall fundamentals were weak, and it was expected to fluctuate weakly in the short term [10][11] Group 7: Lead Price and Inventory Data - From June 12 - 18, 2025, the change in spot premium was 20, and LME inventory increased by 2025. Other data such as premium and import profit also changed [12] Core View - This week, lead prices rebounded from a low level. Supply side: scrap volume was weak year - on - year, and some recycling enterprises increased prices to sell goods. Demand side: battery inventory was high, and Tianneng's production increased, driving spot trading. It was expected that lead prices would fluctuate between 16700 - 17100 next week, and supply was expected to be flat while demand was weak in June [12] Group 8: Tin Price and Inventory Data - From June 12 - 18, 2025, the change in spot import profit was - 498.60, and LME inventory increased by 20. Other data such as premium and export profit also changed [14] Core View - This week, tin prices fluctuated widely. Supply side: short - term复产 in Myanmar's Wa State needed negotiation, and domestic smelting enterprises in some areas cut production. Demand side: solder demand was limited, and terminal demand growth was expected to decline. Short - term, it was expected to maintain a situation of weak supply and demand, and June was a key stage to verify whether the shortage of ore would lead to a shortage of ingots. In the short - term, long - allocation could be held cautiously, and in the long - term, attention should be paid to short - selling opportunities after the maintenance period [14] Group 9: Industrial Silicon Price and Inventory Data - From June 12 - 18, 2025, 421 Yunnan basis decreased by 65, and the number of warehouse receipts decreased by 448 [17] Core View - This week, the start - up rate in Sichuan, Yunnan, and Xinjiang increased slightly. The short - term supply - demand reduction pattern was obvious, and the overall supply and demand of industrial silicon reached a tight balance. In the future, supply had great potential pressure. In the long - term, industrial silicon prices were expected to operate at the bottom of the cash - flow cost of leading enterprises, and the focus was on the cost reduction caused by green - electricity subsidies and the decline of thermal - power prices [17] Group 10: Lithium Carbonate Price and Inventory Data - From June 12 - 18, 2025, SMM electric - grade lithium carbonate price remained unchanged, and the number of registered warehouse receipts decreased by 1746 [19] Core View - This week, lithium carbonate prices rebounded from a low level. Supply side: some production lines resumed production, and overall inventory increased this week. Demand side: downstream demand was weak, and only maintained a safety inventory. In the medium - long term, if the start - up rate of leading ore - smelting integrated enterprises did not decline significantly, lithium carbonate prices would still fluctuate weakly. It was expected to continue to accumulate inventory next week, putting upward pressure on prices [19][20]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No industry investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Views - The report provides daily views and strategies for various futures commodities, including precious metals, base metals, energy, agricultural products, etc., with specific trends and suggestions for each commodity [2][5]. 3. Summary by Commodity Precious Metals - **Gold**: The Federal Reserve continues to hold rates steady, with a trend strength of 0 [6][7][11]. - **Silver**: Expected to continue rising, with a trend strength of 0 [7][11]. Base Metals - **Copper**: Falling inventories support prices, with a trend strength of 0 [13][15]. - **Aluminum**: Expected to oscillate strongly, with a trend strength of 1; Alumina: Monitor production cuts and maintenance, with a trend strength of 0 [16][18]. - **Zinc**: Under medium - term pressure, monitor social inventory changes, with a trend strength of -1 [19][20]. - **Lead**: Expected to trade within a range, with a trend strength of 0 [22][23]. - **Tin**: Tight present but weak future expectations, with a trend strength of 0 [25][29]. - **Nickel**: Concerns at the mine end have cooled, and smelting supply is elastic, with a trend strength of 0; Stainless steel: Negative feedback leads to increased production cuts, with supply and demand both weak and prices oscillating at a low level, with a trend strength of 0 [30][33]. Energy and Chemicals - **Carbonate Lithium**: Warehouse receipt de - stocking is accelerating, monitor potential purchases, with a trend strength of 0 [34][36]. - **Industrial Silicon**: Warehouse receipts are continuously de - stocking, monitor upside potential, with a trend strength of -1; Polysilicon: Upstream restarts production, and the futures price is falling, with a trend strength of -1 [38][40]. - **Iron Ore**: Expectations are fluctuating, and prices will oscillate within a range, with a trend strength of 0 [41]. - **Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil**: Affected by macro - sentiment, prices will oscillate widely, with a trend strength of 0 for both [45][46][48]. - **Silicon Iron and Manganese Silicon**: Affected by sector sentiment, prices will oscillate widely, with a trend strength of 0 for both [50][53]. - **Coke and Coking Coal**: Prices will oscillate widely, with a trend strength of 0 for both [54][56]. - **Steam Coal**: Demand needs to be released, and prices will oscillate widely, with a trend strength of 0 [58][61]. - **PVC**: Expected to oscillate in the short term, with downward pressure in the long run [54]. - **Fuel Oil**: Night trading oscillated weakly, and short - term strength is expected to pause; Low - sulfur fuel oil: The adjustment trend continues, and the spot high - low sulfur spread in the overseas market rebounded slightly [56]. Agricultural Products - **Palm Oil**: U.S. biofuel policy and Middle - East geopolitics are both favorable [63]. - **Soybean Oil**: Expected to rise oscillatingly [63]. - **Soybean Meal and Soybean No. 1**: Oscillating and adjusting [66]. - **Corn**: Expected to trade within a range [68]. - **Sugar**: Consolidating at a low level [69]. - **Cotton**: Monitor the impact of external markets [70]. - **Eggs**: The culling of laying hens is accelerating, waiting for the peak - season bullish factors to materialize [72]. - **Hogs**: Waiting for spot price confirmation, and the cost center for the far - end contracts is moving down [73]. - **Peanuts**: There is support at the bottom [74]. Others - **Container Freight Index (European Line)**: Currently in a sideways market, consider holding long positions in the August contract and short positions in the October contract [57]. - **Short - fiber and Bottle - grade Chip**: Monitor the increasing cost volatility, and prices will oscillate at a high level [61]. - **Offset Printing Paper**: Expected to trade within a range [62]. - **Log**: The basis is being repaired, and prices will oscillate widely, with a trend strength of 1 [62][64].