Core Viewpoint - On October 29, China's wholesale prices for gasoline and diesel both declined, reflecting a broader trend influenced by international oil prices and subdued downstream demand [1]. Price Changes - The average wholesale price for 92 gasoline was 7527 yuan per ton, down 24 yuan from the previous day [1]. - The average wholesale price for diesel (including low pour point) was 6535 yuan per ton, down 13 yuan from the previous day [1]. Market Conditions - On October 28, international crude oil futures prices experienced a significant drop, leading to a narrowing of the average price change rate for a basket of crude oils, with market sentiment leaning bearish [1]. - Downstream demand remained weak, resulting in a lackluster market trading atmosphere [1]. Regional Price Variations - In terms of regional pricing, gasoline wholesale prices increased in Inner Mongolia and Sichuan, while they decreased in Hunan, Henan, Heilongjiang, Beijing, Fujian, Jiangxi, Hubei, Jilin, Jiangsu, and Shanghai [1]. - Diesel wholesale prices saw increases in Xinjiang, Inner Mongolia, Sichuan, and Tianjin, but declines in Hunan, Zhejiang, Liaoning, Henan, Fujian, Jiangxi, Beijing, Jilin, Jiangsu, and Hebei [1]. Data Source - The wholesale price data is published by the China Economic Information Agency and the China Petroleum Economic and Technological Research Institute, in collaboration with the Shanghai Petroleum and Natural Gas Trading Center, providing an authoritative reflection of the overall situation in China's gasoline and diesel wholesale market [1].

Core Viewpoint - The Chinese stock market showed positive performance with significant increases in major indices, while certain sectors experienced declines and others saw strong gains [1] Market Performance - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 4016.33 points, up by 0.70%, with a trading volume of 968.216 billion [1] - The Shenzhen Component Index closed at 13691.38 points, up by 1.95%, with a trading volume of 1287.814 billion [1] - The ChiNext Index closed at 3324.27 points, up by 2.93%, with a trading volume of 616.646 billion [1] Sector Analysis - Banking and liquor sectors experienced declines [1] - The non-ferrous metals sector showed strong gains [1] - Other sectors such as brokerage, coal, insurance, electricity, and oil also saw upward movements [1] - The photovoltaic industry chain stocks surged, while lithium mines, solid-state batteries, and rare earth concepts were active [1]

Group 1 - The report from CITIC Securities highlights rising concerns over high asset risks as commodity prices, such as copper, reach historical highs, while attention shifts to underperforming assets like crude oil, coal, and electrolytic aluminum [1] - It is expected that the copper-aluminum ratio returning to anticipated levels will support aluminum prices at high levels, with seasonal demand and policy disruptions influencing the market [1] - The report forecasts that by Q4 2025, thermal coal prices may continue to recover, while coking coal prices are expected to decline due to weakening demand [1] Group 2 - In terms of copper and cobalt, supply disruptions in September have pushed copper prices to historical highs, while reduced export quotas for cobalt from the Democratic Republic of Congo have driven cobalt prices upward [1] - The supply-side disruptions are anticipated to remain a key factor influencing commodity prices through Q4 2025, with expectations for continued price increases for copper and cobalt [1] - The demand for lithium is expected to rise significantly due to a surge in energy storage battery shipments, transitioning the industry from oversupply to a phase of temporary shortage, with prices likely to continue rising into Q4 2025 [1] Group 3 - Silicon products, which saw significant price increases in Q3 due to expectations of anti-involution policies, are also projected to experience slight price increases in Q4 [1]

Report Overview - Report Title: Crude Oil and Refined Oil Morning Report - Report Date: October 30, 2025 - Research Team: Energy and Chemicals Team of the Research Center 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - This week, oil prices rebounded significantly, with Brent crude closing above $65. The US imposed sanctions on major Russian oil producers, and India's Reliance Group will stop importing Russian oil under long - term agreements, which may lead to a near - zero supply of Russian oil to India in the short term. The reduction in Russian crude exports still needs to be evaluated, but Indian purchases have supported the Dubai market in the short term [6]. - Geopolitical concerns were triggered by the US's controversial military strike on Venezuelan transportation. Fundamentally, as of October 17, EIA crude oil inventories decreased by 961,000 barrels, US refinery operations rebounded, and the US Energy Department announced a tender to buy 1 million barrels of crude oil for the strategic reserve. Gasoline and diesel inventories decreased, showing a warming in fundamentals [6]. - Due to concerns about India's diesel exports, the crack spreads of European and American diesel strengthened, but the inventory of Singapore diesel increased by more than 5 million barrels, reaching a 243 - week high, suppressing the global diesel crack spread. In the short term, oil prices may rebound and fluctuate more, and in the medium term, the upside space of oil prices is limited due to Kuwait's statement that OPEC is ready to increase production. The oversupply situation in the fourth quarter continues, and caution is advised when chasing high prices [6]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Oil Price Data - From October 23 to October 29, WTI crude oil prices changed from $61.79 to $60.48, with a change of $0.33; Brent crude oil prices changed from $65.99 to $64.92, with a change of $0.52; Dubai crude oil prices changed from $65.24 to $64.86, with a change of - $0.08 [3]. - SC crude oil prices changed from 459.70 to 462.60, with a change of - 0.10; Oman crude oil prices changed from $68.44 to $64.95, with a change of $0.17 [3]. - Japanese naphtha CFR prices changed from $573.13 to an unspecified value, with a change in the differential to Brent of - $1.32; Singapore fuel oil 380 CST changed from a - $0.73 discount to a - $1.8 discount to Brent, with a change of - $0.65 [3]. 3.2 Daily News - On October 29, the US announced a new round of sanctions against Russia, targeting two major oil companies, Lukoil and Rosneft, and their 34 subsidiaries. This is in line with the sanctions previously announced by the UK and the EU [3]. - The US Treasury issued a license for Rosneft's German subsidiaries. Russia's current crude oil exports are in line with the October plan and have not been affected by the new sanctions, but India's HMEL company has suspended further purchases of Russian crude [4]. 3.3 Regional Fundamentals - The comprehensive profit of local refineries decreased, with profits oscillating downward [6]. 3.4 Weekly Viewpoints - Short - term: Indian purchases will continue to support the Dubai market. Oil prices may rebound and have increased volatility risks [6]. - Medium - term: The reduction in Russian oil supply will be affected by multiple factors and will impact the oil price center in Q4 and Q1 of 2026 (a range of $5 - 10). The upside space of oil prices is limited due to OPEC's potential production increase, and the oversupply situation in the fourth quarter continues [6]. 3.5 EIA Data - For the week ending October 24: US crude oil exports increased by 158,000 barrels per day to 4.361 million barrels per day; domestic crude oil production increased by 15,000 barrels to 13.644 million barrels per day; commercial crude oil inventories (excluding strategic reserves) decreased by 6.858 million barrels to 416 million barrels, a decrease of 1.62%; strategic petroleum reserve (SPR) inventories increased by 533,000 barrels to 409.1 million barrels, an increase of 0.13%; commercial crude oil imports (excluding strategic reserves) decreased by 867,000 barrels per day to 5.051 million barrels per day [18]. - The four - week average supply of US crude oil products was 20.753 million barrels per day, a decrease of 0.91% compared to the same period last year [18].

根据《石油价格管理办法》规定，国内汽、柴油价格根据国际市场原油价格变化每10个工作日调整一 次，调价生效时间为调价发布日24时。当调价幅度低于每吨50元时，不作调整，纳入下次调价时累加或 冲抵。出现办法规定的特殊情形时，可以暂停、延迟调价，或缩小调价幅度。 新华财经北京10月30日电（薛尚文）新华社石油价格系统10月30日发布的数据显示，10月29日一揽子原 油平均价格变化率为3.68%。 （文章来源：新华财经） 10月30日是本计价周期的第三个工作日，调价窗口将在11月10日24时开启。 ...

行业 原油日报 日期 2025 年 10 月 30 日 021-60635738 lijie@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3031215 021-60635737 renjunchi@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3037892 028-8663 0631 penghaozhou@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3065843 021-60635740 pengjinglin@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3075681 021-60635570 liuyouran@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F03094925 021-60635727 fengzeren@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F03134307 能源化工研究团队 研究员：李捷,CFA（原油沥青） 研究员：任俊弛（PTA、MEG） 研究员：彭浩洲（工业硅碳市场） 研究员：彭婧霖（聚烯烃） 研究员：刘悠然（纸浆） 研究员：冯泽仁（玻璃纯碱） 请阅读正文后的声明 每日报告 一、行情回顾与操作建议 | ...

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - The conference call primarily discusses the **global oil market** and its dynamics, particularly focusing on the impact of geopolitical events and economic factors on oil prices and supply chains [1][2][3]. Core Insights and Arguments 1. **Oil Price Fluctuations**: - In October, international oil prices experienced significant volatility, with Brent crude oil dropping to a six-month low of **$61.01** before rebounding. The expected price range for Q4 is between **$60 and $70**, with an average of approximately **$65** [1][10]. 2. **Impact of Sanctions on Russia**: - New sanctions targeting major Russian oil producers, **Rosneft** and **Lukoil**, are expected to reduce Russian oil exports by at least **1 million barrels per day**. These companies account for about **50%** of Russia's oil exports [5][6][8]. - The sanctions will significantly impact global supply chains, particularly affecting imports from Russia to China and India, which are expected to decrease by a combined **1 million barrels per day** [7][8]. 3. **OPEC's Role**: - OPEC has at least **3 million barrels per day** of spare capacity and may consider a slight increase in production by **137,000 barrels per day** in December to stabilize the market. However, a significant increase is not in their interest [1][12][20]. 4. **Global Oil Inventory Levels**: - Global commercial oil inventories are currently low, with U.S. inventories significantly below the five-year average, providing a support level for oil prices. The total inventory, excluding China, is about **1.9 billion barrels**, which is **15 million barrels** lower than the previous year [13][10]. 5. **Seasonal Demand Variations**: - Global energy demand exhibits seasonal fluctuations, with a notable decline expected after the peak demand periods in September and October. This seasonal change is anticipated to lead to a decrease in demand by approximately **500,000 barrels per day** in Q4 [14]. 6. **Macroeconomic Factors**: - Positive macroeconomic signals include a potential easing of U.S.-China tensions, which could stabilize market expectations. The IMF projects a global economic growth rate of **3.0%** for 2025 and **3.1%** for 2026, indicating a stable economic environment for oil markets [15][17]. 7. **Future Oil Price Predictions**: - For 2026, the average price of Brent crude is expected to remain between **$60 and $70**, with a baseline scenario of **$65**. Key factors influencing this include geopolitical events and economic policies [18][22]. 8. **Investment Trends**: - Global upstream oil investment is projected to be around **$600 billion** in 2026, reflecting a **1.5%** year-on-year decline. Major reductions are expected in Europe, Asia-Pacific, and North America, while unconventional resource investments in South America are anticipated to increase [19]. Other Important Insights - **China's Chemical Industry**: The chemical sector in China is expected to hit a low point around **2027-2028**, with gradual recovery thereafter. Ethylene production capacity is projected to increase from **65 million tons** to **90 million tons** by 2030 [28]. - **Shipping Market Changes**: Post-sanction, the global oil shipping market has adapted, with longer shipping routes being utilized and a decrease in compliant vessels, which supports the demand for oil transportation [31]. This summary encapsulates the critical insights and projections regarding the oil market, highlighting the interplay between geopolitical events, economic conditions, and industry dynamics.

Core Viewpoint - The report from CITIC Securities indicates that supply tightness is expected to drive prices of copper and cobalt commodities upward, while lithium prices may rise due to unexpected demand in energy storage [1] Commodity Price Outlook - Copper and cobalt prices are anticipated to continue rising due to supply constraints [1] - Lithium prices are expected to benefit from higher-than-expected energy storage demand [1] - Precious metals have experienced a pullback, but the overall bullish sentiment remains unchanged [1] - Coal and electrolytic aluminum, which have shown stagnation this year, may receive increased attention in Q4 [1] Other Commodities - Oil and steel/iron ore prices are projected to remain weak [1] - Silicon product prices are expected to see a slight increase [1] - The investment enthusiasm for bulk commodities is likely to persist amid liquidity easing and countries strengthening their efforts to secure key resources [1]

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve has lowered the benchmark interest rate by 25 basis points to a range of 3.75%-4.00%, marking the second consecutive rate cut, aligning with market expectations [1][7]. Group 1: Federal Reserve Actions - The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) voted 10 to 2 in favor of the rate cut, with dissenting opinions advocating for a larger cut of 50 basis points [1]. - The Fed announced it will stop balance sheet reduction starting December 1, reinvesting maturing agency debt into Treasury securities [1]. - The Fed's statement indicated that while employment growth has slowed and unemployment has risen slightly, it remains low as of August [1]. Group 2: Market Reactions - Following the Fed's announcement, the domestic futures market saw most commodities rise, with coking coal increasing over 2% and PVC and coking coal rising over 1% [1]. - The U.S. stock indices showed mixed results, with the Shanghai Composite Index surpassing 4000 points and the North China 50 index rising over 8% [3][12]. - The market's liquidity environment is expected to remain loose, with increased equity asset allocation anticipated from residents and potential inflows from external funds due to the Fed's rate cut and RMB appreciation [3][12]. Group 3: Commodity Insights - Precious metals, particularly gold and silver, have experienced significant corrections following the Fed's rate cut, with market pricing adjustments reflecting the anticipated rate changes [2][19]. - Coking coal prices are supported by strong demand from the steel industry, with recent data showing a slight increase in production and a decrease in inventory levels [4][23]. - The copper market is facing tight supply conditions, with ongoing high growth in smelting output despite a challenging demand environment [20]. Group 4: International Relations and Economic Indicators - Geopolitical tensions have eased somewhat, with recent U.S.-China talks yielding basic consensus on addressing mutual concerns, which may influence market sentiment positively [2][8]. - The Indian central bank has accelerated the repatriation of gold reserves, reflecting a broader trend of increasing gold holdings by central banks globally amid rising distrust in the financial system [9].

【财经日历】 20:30 美国第三季度实际GDP年化季率 21:15 欧洲央行公布利率决议 | 道琼斯 | 纳斯达克 | 标普500 | | --- | --- | --- | | 47632.00 | 23958.47 | 6890.59 | | -74.37 -0.16% | +130.98 +0.55% | -0.30 0.00% | 周三美股盘中巨震，美联储主席鲍威尔表示12月再次降息远非定局后打压市场情绪。 美联储在为期两天的政策会议结束后，将隔夜基准利率下调25个基点，使其处于3.75%至4%的区间，并 宣布12月开始结束缩表重启有限度国债购买。这是美联储今年第二次降息。 个股方面，英伟达上涨3.0%。这家人工智能芯片龙头企业的市值在当日交易中飙升至5万亿美元以上， 成为首家达到这一水平的美国公司。 明星科技股分化，谷歌涨2.5%，亚马逊涨0.5%，苹果涨0.2%，特斯拉涨0.2%，Meta平收，微软跌 0.1%，甲骨文跌2.0%。 纳斯达克中国金龙指数微跌0.03%，阿里巴巴涨1.8%，百度涨0.6%，网易跌0.1%，京东跌0.5%。 国际油价小幅走高，WTI原油近月合约涨0.55%，报60.4 ...