2025 年 7 月 30 日 原油：多单持有，或再挑战 80 美元/桶 黄柳楠 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0015892 huangliunan021151@gtjas.com 【国际原油】 WTI9 原油期货收涨 2.50 美元/桶，涨幅 3.75%，报 69.21 美元/桶；布伦特 9 月原油期货收涨 2.47 美元/桶，涨幅 3.52%，报 72.51 美元/桶；SC2509 原油期货收涨 12.80 元/桶，涨幅 2.49%， 报 527.50 元/桶。 6. 欧佩克+联合部长级监督委员会再次敦促成员国完全遵守配额的重要性。 11. IMF 将今年世界经济增长预期上调至 3%，将美国增长预测上调至 1.9%，将中国增长预测上调至 4.8%。 （以上资讯来源于金十数据） 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 研 究 所 商 品 研 究 1. 美国高级行政官员：特朗普建议欧盟在其任期内购买 1 万亿美元的美国能源，欧盟最终决定以 购买 7500 亿美元达成协议。 2. 美国至 7 月 25 日当周 API 原油库存(万桶)：前值 -57.7 预期 -250 公布 153.9；美国至 7 月 25 日当周 A ...

Report Date - The report is dated July 30, 2025 [3] Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating is provided in the report Core Views - Based on fundamental analysis, there are trend short, oscillatory, oscillatory long, and trend long views for different futures varieties such as zinc, crude oil, and fuel oil [4] - Based on quantitative indicators, there are bearish, oscillatory, and bullish views for different futures varieties such as corn, palm oil, and Shanghai copper [5] - A series of macro - economic events and policies are expected to impact the market, including Sino - US economic and trade talks, IMF's economic outlook adjustments, and US political statements [8][9] Summary by Categories Macro - Finance - **Stock Index Futures**: Focus on the support of the 5 - day moving average. If not broken, the trend continues. A - shares rose on Tuesday, and the market style rotates. Pay attention to the movement of stop - profit funds [11] - **Treasury Bond Futures**: Short - term prices are suppressed by the 5 - day moving average. Consider shorting on rallies or reducing duration using treasury bond futures. Pay attention to the Politburo meeting's stance on inflation [12] Black (Steel and Minerals) - **Steel and Minerals**: Central anti - involution policies increase the expectation of boosting inflation through the supply side. Currently in the seasonal off - season, the market shows off - season strength. Demand may weaken seasonally, but the spot - futures arbitrage is active. Supply is expected to remain strong, and steel prices are expected to rebound in the short - term but with limited space, and oscillate in the medium - term [13][14] - **Coking Coal and Coke**: Prices may enter a high - level oscillatory stage. Coal mine production is strictly checked, and steel mills' profits are good. However, there is a possibility of a decline in steel mills' molten iron production, and imported Mongolian coal may put pressure on prices [16] - **Ferroalloys**: The supply - demand of ferrosilicon and silicomanganese may weaken marginally. Short - term operation requires intraday trading skills, and it is not recommended to chase highs or lows [17] - **Soda Ash and Glass**: For soda ash, short on rallies and stop loss flexibly if the positive feedback returns. For glass, close long positions at low levels and then wait and see. The supply - demand pattern of soda ash has not improved significantly, and glass needs to digest speculative inventory [18][19] Non - ferrous Metals and New Materials - **Aluminum and Alumina**: Aluminum prices are expected to oscillate weakly at high levels due to weak downstream demand in the off - season. Alumina prices are in a high - volatility stage, and short - term policy influence is expected to be short - lived. Supply - demand is expected to be loose [21] - **Shanghai Zinc**: Social inventories are increasing, and the supply is expected to increase while downstream demand is weak. Zinc prices will oscillate downward [22] - **Lithium Carbonate**: Supply - side disruptions have limited impact, and the market is expected to oscillate without further news of production cuts [23] - **Industrial Silicon**: The supply of leading manufacturers is uncertain, and the supply - demand situation has marginally improved. The market is expected to oscillate, and the core issue is the resumption of production of leading manufacturers [24] - **Polysilicon**: The market is trading based on policy expectations, and the supply - demand situation is weak. The upside space of the futures price depends on actual policies and warehouse receipt generation [25][26] Agricultural Products - **Cotton**: Prices are oscillating under pressure. Long - term short positions on rallies are recommended. Global and US cotton production and ending stocks are expected to increase, and overall demand is weaker than last year [28][29] - **Sugar**: Domestic sugar prices are under pressure due to the expected increase in processed sugar imports. The market is expected to oscillate under pressure, and the international sugar market is expected to have a surplus [31][32] - **Eggs**: Entering the seasonal rising stage, but the supply pressure during the Mid - Autumn Festival may limit the increase. It is recommended to short on rallies and pay attention to the short 09 and long 01 spread [35] - **Apples**: Light - position positive spreads are recommended. Pay attention to the listing price and consumption of early - maturing apples [36] - **Corn**: Prices are expected to oscillate in a range. Policy support strengthens the price floor, but wheat substitution and imported corn may suppress prices [36][37] - **Red Dates**: It is recommended to wait and see. Pay attention to the fruit - setting situation in the production area and weather changes [38][39] - **Pigs**: Short - term supply exceeds demand. It is recommended to short near - month contracts and pay attention to the 11 - 1/3 - 5 spread [40] Energy and Chemicals - **Crude Oil**: The market may shift to a supply - surplus pattern. In the short - term, prices may rebound due to concerns about sanctions on Russia. Long - term factors include Sino - US trade negotiations and the realization of peak - season demand [42] - **Fuel Oil**: Low - sulfur fuel oil prices will follow crude oil prices. The market is affected by the peak power - generation demand in the Middle East, weak shipping, and crude oil's diversion of fuel oil demand [43] - **Plastics**: The supply - demand situation is weak. The market may oscillate weakly after a short - term emotional rebound. It is recommended to be cautious about callbacks [44] - **Rubber**: Short - term prices are affected by macro - policies and market sentiment. It is recommended to observe the supply of raw materials and market sentiment [45] - **Methanol**: Prices are expected to oscillate weakly, following the overall commodity market. The supply - demand is weak, and the inventory is accumulating [46] - **Caustic Soda**: The fundamentals are relatively healthy. If there are warehouse receipts, the spot and futures market may be strong in the short - term [47] - **Asphalt**: It follows crude oil prices. The fundamentals are in the off - season, and production is expected to decrease in August, leading to inventory reduction [48][49] - **Polyester Industry Chain**: Prices are affected by macro - policies and market sentiment. Wait for short - selling opportunities. PX supply - demand is stable, PTA supply contracts slightly, and ethylene glycol imports are expected to increase [50] - **Liquefied Petroleum Gas (LPG)**: Supply is abundant, and demand is expected to decline in the medium - to long - term. Prices are likely to fall [51] - **Paper Pulp**: The 09 contract is expected to oscillate weakly with limited amplitude. Observe port inventory reduction and spot trading improvement [52] - **Logs**: The spot price is raised, and the futures price follows. Be cautious about chasing highs and pay attention to the basis [52] - **Urea**: Maintain a bullish view as the improvement in low - price spot trading affects the futures market [53]

Core Viewpoint - The latest round of domestic refined oil price adjustments will not take place due to minimal fluctuations in international oil prices, reflecting a stable domestic pricing mechanism [1][2] Group 1: Price Adjustment Details - The new price adjustment window for refined oil opened on July 29, with no changes to gasoline and diesel prices as the adjustment amount was less than 50 yuan per ton [1] - The average price of crude oil from July 15 to July 29 showed a change rate of -0.57%, indicating a potential decrease of 25 yuan per ton for gasoline and diesel, which is below the adjustment threshold [1] - This marks the third time this year that domestic refined oil price adjustments have been suspended, highlighting the limited volatility in international oil prices [1] Group 2: Market Outlook - The current market focus includes potential U.S. sanctions against Russia, which could impact Russian oil exports and drive prices higher [2] - OPEC+ is expected to maintain significant production increases, with a new meeting scheduled for early August, potentially advancing their production targets [2] - Seasonal demand for fuel is expected to remain strong due to the summer travel peak in the U.S., although uncertainties surrounding U.S. tariff policies continue to create cautious market sentiment [2]

油价大幅拉升！ 当地时间7月29日（周二），美国股市三大股指全线收跌。中概股亦多数下跌，纳斯达克中国金龙指数跌1.35%。消息面上，市场等待美联储即将公布的 货币政策会议结果，市场普遍预期将维持基准利率不变。 作为美股市场最重要的一类板块，大型科技股多数下跌，其中Meta跌逾2%，特斯拉、苹果跌逾1%，亚马逊跌0.76%，英伟达跌0.7%，微软涨0.01%，谷歌 涨逾1%。 | 代码 | 名称 | 现价 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅▼ | 年初至今 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | GOOG | 谷歌(ALPHABET)-C | 196.500 | 3.080 | 1.59% | 3.42% | | MSFT | 微软(MICROSOFT) | 512.570 | 0.070 | 0.01% | 22.07% | | NVDA | 英伟达(NVIDIA) | 175.510 | -1.240 | -0.70% | 30.72% | | AMZN | 亚马逊(AMAZON) | 231.010 | -1.780 | -0.76% | 5.30% | | AAPL | 苹 ...

沙特对中国原油出口的增加，是金砖国家内部地缘政治和经济格局演变的一个象征。在中国和沙特处于 这些发展核心位置的情况下，能源合作正成为多极世界秩序的基石，而这一秩序越来越由南南合作所定 义。 南非独立在线新闻网7月29日文章，原题：沙特对中国石油出口激增沙特计划在8月大幅增加对中国的原 油出口，这将创下两年多来的最高水平，这凸显了金砖国家合作机制中两个重要成员之间日益深化的能 源合作。据消息人士称，沙特阿美8月将向中国出口约5100万桶原油，相当于每日165万桶。这一出口量 比7月的配额高出400万桶，是自2023年4月以来的最高水平。 沙特与中国之间能源合作关系的加强，反映出一种更广泛的趋势，即金砖国家间正朝着区域化和相互依 存的方向发展，这使它们逐渐成为制衡西方传统能源市场的力量。 这些不断深化的经济协同效应与金砖国家的目标相一致，即旨在促进新兴经济体之间的技术转让、基础 设施建设以及公平贸易实践。随着金砖国家为下一阶段的扩容和战略协调做准备，沙特与中国的石油合 作关系充分证明了金砖合作机制在重塑全球能源政治方面日益增长的影响力。 沙特对中国原油出口量的激增，不仅凸显了市场动态的转变，也强化了金砖国家之间日 ...

美国总统特朗普确定大幅缩减给俄罗斯下的最后通牒期限，并威胁征关税，国际原油期货盘中再度大涨，创以色列对伊朗发动袭击以来最大盘中涨幅。 苏格兰当地时间7月29日周二，特朗普在结束对当地的访问返美的飞机上确认，他留给俄罗斯达成俄乌停火协议的时间是"从今天算起10天。"这意味着，特 朗普给俄罗斯的最后通牒期限较两周前设定的50天大幅缩短，截止期从之前的9月2日提前到8月8日。 据央视新闻，特朗普表示，如果俄罗斯在结束俄乌冲突方面没有取得进展，美国将在10天内开始对俄罗斯征收关税，并采取其他措施。 在特朗普最近威胁可能设定的最后期限中，10天是最短的时间。华尔街见闻提到，本周一特朗普说对俄罗斯总统普京"非常失望"，没有理由再等下去，看不 到任何进展，他将设定新的最后期限，大概是10到12天。当时他威胁，如果俄罗斯不停止战争，美国将对其实施"二级制裁"。 所谓"二级制裁"是指美国对与受制裁实体做生意的其他国家或个人施加的制裁，这意味着购买俄罗斯石油的国家也可能面临美国制裁。这一威胁可能影响印 度等俄油的大买家。 据央视新闻，特朗普7月14日警告，如果无法在50天内达成协议结束俄乌冲突，美国将对俄罗斯实施"非常严厉的、大 ...

Core Viewpoint - President Trump's ultimatum to Russia has been significantly shortened from 50 days to 10 days, creating heightened tensions and impacting global oil prices [1][3][11]. Group 1: Ultimatum and Sanctions - Trump has set a new deadline of August 8 for Russia to reach a ceasefire agreement regarding the Ukraine conflict, a reduction from the previous deadline of September 2 [1]. - The potential "secondary sanctions" could target countries that continue to purchase Russian oil, which may affect major buyers like India [1][7]. - Trump's warning of imposing "very severe, approximately 100% tariffs" on Russia if no agreement is reached within the stipulated time frame indicates a serious escalation in trade tensions [2]. Group 2: Oil Price Impact - Following Trump's announcement, international crude oil futures saw significant increases, with WTI crude rising nearly 4.6% to $69.76 and Brent crude increasing over 4.3% to $73.08, marking the largest intraday gains in over six weeks [3]. - Analysts express concerns that the new deadline could tighten the supply of Russian oil and fuel in the global market, potentially leading to further price increases [6]. Group 3: Geopolitical Reactions - The EU has recently announced new sanctions against Russia, which includes penalties against Indian company Nayara Energy, indicating a broader geopolitical response to the conflict [6]. - Trump's remarks about not worrying about the impact of sanctions on the oil market suggest confidence in increasing domestic oil production to offset any potential supply disruptions [8]. - Political analysts speculate that India and other major oil-importing countries may reduce their imports of Russian energy, either voluntarily or due to tariff pressures, which could financially impact the Russian government [9].

上周API成品油汽油库存 -173.9万桶（前值 -122.8万桶）、馏分油库存 +418.9万桶（前值 +348万桶）。 上周API库欣原油库存 +46.5万桶，前值 +31.4万桶。 美国石油协会（API）数据显示，7月25日当周，美国API原油库存 +153.9万桶，分析师预期 -250万桶， 之前一周 -57.7万桶。 ...

美国总统特朗普：如果对俄罗斯实施制裁，我不担心石油问题。 ...

美国总统特朗普谈及更改俄罗斯"截止日期"并宣称，今天开始，10天内（若不与乌克兰达成停火协议）将对俄罗斯加征关税。 针对俄罗斯石油发出的二级制裁威胁，关税可能会影响到俄罗斯，也可能不会产生影响。 WTI原油期货短线上扬超过0.60美元，刷新日高至68.45美元，日内整体涨幅扩大至超过2.5% ...