①美联储主席热门候选人哈西特发声 北京时间12月8日晚间，下一任美联储主席热门候选人、美国白宫国家经济委员会主任凯文·哈西特突然 释放重要政策信号。他表示，美联储应该继续降低利率。但他没有给出具体的利率目标。关于美联储未 来的降息幅度，他表示，必须密切关注数据情况。美联储主席的职责是观察数据，进行调整，并解释其 决策的原因。若现在就公布未来6个月的利率承诺，是不负责任的行为。哈西特还表示，美国债券市场 的波动，在一定程度上或许源于美联储政策的不确定性。美国10年期债券收益率还有很大下行空间。 ④Meta拟削减元宇宙相关部门最高30%预算 多位知情人士透露，Meta公司正推进2026财年成本优化方案，拟将元宇宙相关业务预算削减最高30%。 该调整最快将于明年1月引发新一轮裁员，目前具体执行细节仍在最终敲定中。2021年，扎克伯格将公 司更名为Meta，宣称元宇宙将成为"下一代互联网"，并承诺打造"如点击链接般便捷的虚拟传送体验"。 但近几年，扎克伯格极少在公开场合提及元宇宙，今年三季度财报会议上更是全程聚焦AI战略，原元 宇宙负责人Vishal Shah已调任AI产品副总裁，接管超级智能实验室，凸显战略重心的转 ...

Core Viewpoint - Vietnam's industrial production index (IIP) experienced a year-on-year growth of 9.3% in the first 11 months of 2025, indicating a robust recovery in industrial activities across the country [1] Group 1: Overall Industrial Growth - The processing and manufacturing sector grew by 10.6%, contributing 8.5 percentage points to the overall IIP growth [1] - Water supply, waste, and wastewater treatment increased by 8.4%, contributing 0.1 percentage points [1] - Electricity production and sales rose by 6.5%, contributing 0.6 percentage points [1] - The mining sector saw a growth of 0.9%, contributing 0.1 percentage points [1] Group 2: Sector-Specific Performance - Notable growth was observed in several key industries, including: - Automobile production increased by 22.0% [1] - Non-metallic mineral products grew by 16.5% [1] - Rubber and plastic products rose by 16.4% [1] - Metal production increased by 15.5% [1] - Clothing production grew by 13.5% [1] - Prefabricated metal products (excluding machinery and equipment) increased by 12.6% [1] Group 3: Regional Performance - Industrial production showed positive trends across all 34 provinces and municipalities, with significant growth in: - Quang Ninh at 33.8% [1] - Phu Tho at 28.8% [1] - Ninh Binh at 23.4% [1] - Thanh Hoa at 17.5% [1] - Bac Ninh and Hai Phong both at 16.9% [1]

Group 1 - The commodity market is facing a new balance under rational supply and demand, with cost resilience creating a safety margin. The non-ferrous metal sector, particularly copper and aluminum, is identified as a clear leading opportunity with strong growth momentum [2][3] Group 2 - The traditional safety assets are losing their foundation under the global macro new normal, with global bonds facing credit risks and increased volatility, diminishing their risk-hedging function. Gold and overseas stock markets are emerging as new opportunities for asset allocation in 2026 [6][7] Group 3 - Key insights for the bond market in 2026 include market consensus expectations and potential discrepancies, with a rebound in PPI possibly exceeding market expectations. Inflation expectations are becoming the dominant logic, with 10-year government bonds expected to return to the range of 2-3% [9] Group 4 - TH International will focus on Q3 revenue growth, profit margins, and cost control performance, detailing the impact of recent convertible bond issuance and debt structure optimization on capital flexibility and financial costs. The company aims to strengthen cash flow to support store expansion and digital strategy while exploring the synergy between debt optimization and ESG goals [12][13]

Core Insights - The industrial metals sector experienced a 0.41% increase on December 8, with Yinbang Co., Ltd. leading the gains [1] - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3924.08, up 0.54%, while the Shenzhen Component Index closed at 13329.99, up 1.39% [1] Industrial Metals Sector Performance - The following companies saw notable price changes: - Luoping Zinc & Electricity (002114) closed at 9.12, down 2.88% with a trading volume of 480,700 shares [1] - Zhuzhou Smelter Group (600961) closed at 15.14, down 2.82% with a trading volume of 233,900 shares [1] - Hongchuang Holdings (002379) closed at 23.80, down 2.82% with a trading volume of 310,400 shares [1] - Huayu Mining (601020) closed at 28.50, down 2.73% with a trading volume of 458,800 shares [1] - Nanshan Aluminum (600219) closed at 5.22, down 2.06% with a trading volume of 3,258,900 shares [1] Capital Flow Analysis - The industrial metals sector saw a net inflow of 764 million yuan from institutional investors, while retail investors experienced a net outflow of 696 million yuan [1] - Key capital flows for selected companies include: - Yinbang Co., Ltd. (300337) had a net inflow of 358 million yuan from institutional investors, but a net outflow of 210 million yuan from retail investors [2] - Zijin Mining (601899) had a net inflow of 177 million yuan from institutional investors, with a net outflow of 26.98 million yuan from retail investors [2] - Northern Copper Industry (000737) had a net inflow of 113 million yuan from institutional investors, with a net outflow of 43.65 million yuan from retail investors [2]

近几周，由于市场担忧明年进口关税实施前铜将大量流向美国，导致其他主要地区库存紧张、现货溢价 攀升，铜价涨势进一步加速。中信证券分析师在报告中指出，2026年全球精炼铜供应可能出现45万吨的 缺口，部分原因正是美国的囤货行为。 在全球供应趋紧背景下，受中国刺激政策及美国库存囤积提振，投资者持续看好铜价涨势，并推动了铜 价攀升至历史新高。 周一，这一工业金属价格一度大涨约1%，突破前一交易日每吨11705美元的纪录。本轮上涨源于中国高 层明确表示，这一全球第二大经济体将继续保持"适度宽松"的货币政策，并采取更加积极的财政举措。 中国贸易数据也为铜价提供了支撑。数据显示，上月出口反弹并超出预期，推动中国年度贸易顺差首次 突破1万亿美元。 作为电气化与能源转型的关键金属，铜价今年在伦敦金属交易所(LME)已累计上涨逾30%。花旗分析师 上周五发布的看涨观点，进一步助推了本就因供需失衡及全球原材料短缺而火热的行情。 中信分析师团队强调，明年铜价需平均维持在每吨12000美元以上，才能吸引新矿产投资，保障中长期 供应充足。 截至发稿，LME铜价上涨约0.4%，报每吨11711.5美元，早前一度触及11771美元的高点。其 ...

| | | | 日度策略参考 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 行业板块 | 品种 | 趋势研判 | 逻辑观点精粹及策略参考 | | | | | 预计年内市场分歧将在股指震荡调整过程中逐步消化,后续有望 | | | | | 随着新主线的出现推动股指进一步上行。与此同时,中央汇金的 托底作用为市场提供了一定缓冲,指数下行风险整体可控。从策 | | | | | 略角度看, 近期市场的调整为明年股指进一步上行提供了布局机 | | 宏观金融 | | | 会,交易者可考虑在市场调整阶段逐步建立多头头寸,并借助股 | | | | | 指期货的贴水结构提升长线投资的胜率。 | | | 国债 | 震荡 | 资产荒和弱经济利好债期,但短期央行提示利率风险,压制上涨 答间。 | | | | | LME铜注销仓单引发挤仓担忧,铜价走高。但短期随着利好情绪消 化,铜价存在回落风险。88总 | | | | 震荡 | 短期随着利好情绪消化,价格存在回落风险。 | | | 氧化铝 | | 国内氧化铝产量及库存继续双增,基本面维持偏弱格局,价格承 压下行,关注矿端价格变化。 | | | | 農物 | 短期宏观利好消 ...

格隆汇12月8日｜机构分析称，铜价徘徊在历史高点附近，投资者押注在美国囤货及全球供应紧张的推 动下，铜的涨势将持续。铜价周一波动不大，此前一个交易日创下每吨11,705美元的历史纪录。花旗分 析师上周五的看多报告进一步推升了市场情绪，当前市场特征也正是供需失衡与原材料全球短缺。作为 电气化与能源转型的关键金属，铜价今年已在伦敦金属交易所累计上涨逾30%。近几周涨势进一步加 速，原因是外界担心在明年美国加征关税前，金属将大规模流向美国，从而导致库存被抽离，并推高其 他关键地区的金属溢价。 ...

Group 1: Core Insights - The report from Dongfang Securities indicates that during a rate-cutting cycle, physical assets with tight supply and demand can exhibit significant price elasticity, particularly for industrial metals like copper and aluminum, which are experiencing a super cycle [1] - Last week, copper and aluminum prices saw notable increases, with LME copper closing at a record high of $11,655 per ton, reflecting strong demand expectations [1] - There is a growing divergence among investors regarding the sustainability of rising prices for copper and aluminum, especially as the non-ferrous metals sector rose by 5.35% due to the surge in copper prices [1] Group 2: Copper Sector - A significant withdrawal of 56,900 tons from LME copper inventories, the largest single-day order in 13 years, has heightened expectations of tight copper supply, driving prices upward [2] - Chile's national copper company has raised COMEX-LME copper premium quotes, reflecting concerns over potential U.S. tariff policies and supply tightness [2] - The copper market is expected to see continued support for price increases due to rising demand in traditional and emerging sectors, while self-regulatory measures in the copper industry may stabilize smelting fees [2] Group 3: Aluminum Sector - Aluminum is increasingly in demand due to its properties as an ideal material for energy storage systems, with projections indicating a need for 2310 tons of aluminum per 1 GWh of installed capacity [3] - The anticipated production scale of energy storage battery compartments in China is expected to reach 350 GWh by 2025, driving an additional demand for aluminum of 80,000 tons [3] - The current high copper-aluminum price ratio suggests that demand for aluminum as a substitute for copper will continue to grow, supporting aluminum price increases [3] Group 4: Gold Sector - The market anticipates a higher probability of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, which could lead to rising inflation expectations, thereby supporting gold prices [4] - The forecast for gold prices suggests a potential breakthrough of $5,000 per ounce by 2026, driven by ongoing industrial metal price increases [4] Group 5: Investment Recommendations - For the copper sector, it is recommended to focus on Zijin Mining (601899.SH) for its substantial resource reserves and expected production growth, along with other companies like Luoyang Molybdenum (603993.SH) and Jincheng Mining (603979.SH) [5] - In the aluminum sector, Tianshan Aluminum (002532.SZ) and Huafeng Aluminum (601702.SH) are highlighted for their potential to achieve volume and price increases in 2026 [5] - For the gold sector, Chifeng Jilong Gold Mining (600988.SH) is recommended due to its improving production and performance outlook [5]

注：如提及个股仅供参考，不代表投资建议。指数/基金短期涨跌幅及历史表现仅供分析参考，不预示 未来表现。市场观点随市场环境变化而变动，不构成任何投资建议或承诺。文中提及指数仅供参考，不 构成任何投资建议，也不构成对基金业绩的预测和保证。如需购买相关基金产品，请选择与风险等级相 匹配的产品。基金有风险，投资需谨慎。 每日经济新闻 华创证券指出，红利资产在交运公用、金融、能源化工、食饮、家电、地产、金属、出版等多个行业展 现出配置价值。在交运公用领域，公路、港口、铁路等长久期资产具备防御稳健性，其中公路行业推荐 具备成长潜力的优质高速资产；港口行业海外布局及分红比例提升推升估值弹性；铁路行业受益改革红 利，黄金线路资产具备价格弹性潜力。金融板块中，银行股息率高且资产质量安全边际充足，中长期投 资价值持续。能源化工行业方面，油气作为能源安全基石，长期现金流有保障，资本开支趋势性下修； 煤炭行业反内卷政策超预期，供给约束下行业盈利稳定性增强。金属行业中电解铝企业进入现金流修复 阶段，供需紧平衡支撑铝价，行业吨铝利润有望维持高位。出版行业教育出版主业稳健，稳定高分红叠 加AI教育等新方向布局，配置价值突出。整体来看，红利 ...

Summary of Key Points from Conference Call Records Industry Overview Aviation Industry - The adjustment of the China-Japan route impacts airlines and ticket prices, with the route accounting for 3% of the total market share. The removal of flights has led to a shift in capacity to domestic flights, causing ticket prices to stabilize or slightly decline from previous growth of 2-3% [2] - Airlines have extended the free ticket refund period for the China-Japan route until March 31, 2026, resulting in short-term disruptions but overall limited impact due to the small number of flights removed [2] - The recommendation for airline stocks includes China Southern Airlines, China Eastern Airlines, and Air China, followed by Huaxia Airlines, Juneyao Airlines, and Spring Airlines [2] Retail and Duty-Free Market - The Shanghai Airport duty-free store bidding process has sparked discussions, with potential new operators being introduced as existing shareholders oppose the bid. This could lead to increased revenue for Shanghai Airport [4] - The bidding process may benefit Shanghai Airport regardless of the outcome, as the expected revenue from the bidding exceeds investment returns [4] Shipping and Bulk Freight - The Baltic Dry Index (BDI) reached a two-year high of 2,854 points, driven by the upcoming production of the West Manganese Mine and concentrated shipments from Australian mines [5] - The outlook for the bulk shipping market remains positive, with recommendations for stocks such as Haitong Development, Pacific Shipping, and China Merchants Energy [5] Express Delivery Industry - Jitu's volume growth in Southeast Asia reached 78% during the Double Eleven shopping festival, with new market growth at 83%, indicating strong performance [6] - The express delivery sector is experiencing a shift, with leading companies increasing market share while lower-tier companies see declines. Zhongtong has returned to double-digit growth in October and November, making it an attractive investment opportunity [7] Commodity Market Insights Metal Market - The commodity cycle since 2020 is not yet halfway through, with expectations for a bull market in 2026 driven by a weakening dollar and supply chain disruptions [8] - The investment strategy for 2026 focuses on energy metals, nickel, cobalt, gold, copper, aluminum, and strategic metals, influenced by energy revolutions and geopolitical tensions [11] - Specific insights include: - Nickel and cobalt prices are expected to remain high due to quota systems and unexpected demand for energy storage [8] - Copper's supply issues are critical, with both financial and commodity attributes driving its value [8] - Aluminum is anticipated to break out of a three-year range due to low inventory and increased demand from industrial and energy sectors [8] Coal Market - The coal market is currently under pressure, with prices for Shanxi coal dropping by 27 yuan, and overall coal inventory rising but still below last year's levels [13][14] - Electricity consumption has decreased year-on-year, but there is a seasonal uptick in demand [15] - The national coal market conference indicated a balanced supply-demand outlook for 2026, with a focus on long-term contracts and import controls to stabilize prices [16] Future Projections - The overall sentiment for the metal sector in 2026 is optimistic, emphasizing the importance of energy revolutions and geopolitical factors for long-term investment opportunities [9]