Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article indicates that the soybean market is experiencing a downturn due to unexpected increases in U.S. soybean production estimates and decreases in export forecasts by the USDA, leading to a rise in ending stocks [1][2] - CBOT soybean futures saw a significant decline, with March contracts closing at $10.49 per bushel, down 13.5 cents, and reaching a low of $10.43 per bushel, the lowest since January 2 [1] - The USDA raised the U.S. soybean production estimate to 4.262 billion bushels and lowered the export forecast to 1.575 billion bushels, resulting in an increase in ending stocks to 350 million bushels [2] Group 2 - The Dalian soybean meal futures market showed a near-term strength but long-term weakness, with the main contract closing at 2,761 yuan per ton, down 29 yuan, and a trading volume of 1,180,639 [1][2] - Domestic soybean meal spot prices fell by 10-20 yuan per ton, influenced by the USDA's supply and demand report, despite a strong market sentiment anticipating tighter future supplies [2] - Brazilian soybean production is expected to reach a record high of 178 million tons, with the harvest progress at 0.6% as of January 8, surpassing last year's 0.3% [2] Group 3 - The CBOT corn futures market experienced a sharp decline of over 5%, with March contracts closing at $4.21-1/4 per bushel, down 24.25 cents, following an unexpected increase in U.S. corn production estimates by the USDA [4][5] - The USDA raised the U.S. corn production estimate to 17.021 billion bushels, exceeding analyst expectations and surpassing the previous record of 15.340 billion bushels [5] - Domestic corn prices showed a slight upward trend, with trading in North China being cautious but supported by limited supply and rising trader sentiment [5]

Group 1: Investment Rating - No investment rating information provided in the report Group 2: Core Views - The estimated ending inventory of US soybeans in the 2025/26 season remains at 290 million bushels, and the inventory-to-consumption ratio is at a relatively low level of 6.7%, providing some support for the downside of CBOT US soybeans. Attention should be paid to the adjustments of the January USDA Supply and Demand Report to US soybean yield and exports [9]. - There is no obvious speculative driver in the short - term South American weather. Brazil has started harvesting. Under the prediction of Brazilian soybean production, attention should be paid to the impact of the January harvest selling pressure on the Brazilian CNF premium [10]. - Recently, affected by domestic and foreign policy news, the soybean meal futures market is expected to be mainly volatile. In the short term, attention should be paid to the adjustments of the January USDA Supply and Demand Report, the trend of Brazilian premiums, and changes in China - Canada trade policies [10]. - The trend of the M3 - M5 spread is uncertain. Attention should be paid to domestic imported soybean auctions and customs policies, and cautious operation is recommended [10]. Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Data on Basis - **Soybean Meal Main Contract Basis**: In Dalian, it was 450 on January 12th, down 4; in Tianjin, it was 410, down 4; in Zhangjiagang (43% soybean meal spot basis to the main contract), it was 360, down 4; in Dongguan, it was 350, down 4; in Zhanjiang, it was 390, down 4; in Fangcheng, it was 400 [6]. - **Rapeseed Meal Spot Basis**: In Guangdong, it was 82 on January 12th, down 3; N3 - 2 was 327, up 18 [6]. 3.2 Spread Data - **Soybean Meal - Rapeseed Meal Spread**: The spot spread in Guangdong was 664 on January 12th, up 7; the futures spread of the main contract was 460, up 12 [7]. 3.3 International Data - The US dollar - RMB exchange rate was 6.9742, and the Brazilian soybean CNF premium was 147.00 cents per bushel, down 10. The Brazilian soybean crushing margin was 155 yuan per ton [7]. 3.4 Inventory Data - The report presents historical data on China's port soybean inventory, major oil mills' soybean inventory, feed enterprises' soybean meal inventory days, and major oil mills' soybean meal inventory from 2018 - 2025 [7][8]. 3.5开机和压榨情况 (Operation and Pressing Conditions) - The report shows historical data on the operating rate and soybean pressing volume of major oil mills from 2020 - 2025 [8].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content is provided in the report. 2. Core Views of the Report Soft Commodity Sector - **Sugar**: Market concerns about a year - on - year decline in Guangxi sugar output have led to a slight recovery in domestic sugar spot prices and improved market sentiment. However, the international sugar market remains in oversupply, limiting the upward drive of ICE sugar. It is recommended to hold long positions in the main SR2605 sugar contract [4][5]. - **Pulp**: The supply pressure of pulp is gradually easing, and the new warehouse receipt cost is rising, which may drive up the bottom of the market. However, overseas inventories are high, and the domestic downstream market's ability to accept high - priced pulp is limited. It is advisable to exit long positions and consider short positions [5][6]. - **Offset Paper**: The short - term demand is supported by publishing orders, but overall demand will be under pressure later. The high total production capacity and low capacity utilization rate limit the price increase. Short - term bearish operations are recommended [7][9]. - **Cotton**: Globally, the supply of cotton is expected to be abundant, and the consumption side lacks obvious drivers. However, there are expectations of supply reduction, and the futures price is in a bottom - building stage. In the domestic market, there are long - term supports, but short - term price adjustments may occur. It is recommended to hold long positions in the 05 contract cautiously [10]. Fresh Produce and Fruit Sector - **Apple**: The 05 contract is supported by low cold - storage inventory, poor high - quality fruit rate, and high acquisition prices. However, after the harvest this season, the futures price has already reflected some positive expectations, and the consumption is worrying. The price is expected to remain in a high - level range. It is recommended to buy on dips [11][12]. - **Jujube**: The supply is gradually becoming more abundant, but consumption has entered the peak season. The spot inventory is decreasing, and the futures - spot price difference has eased. It is recommended to close short positions below 9,000 points in the 2605 contract, and investors can also consider other strategies such as buying protective put options and holding reverse spreads [12][13]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs First Part: Sector Strategy Recommendations | Variety | Reference Strategy | Main Logic | Support Range | Pressure Range | | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | | Apple 2605 | Hold long positions cautiously | Supported by a decline in new - season production, high - quality fruit rate, and peak inventory year - on - year, but limited consumption growth | 8,800 - 8,900 | 10,000 - 10,200 | | Jujube 2605 | Buy on dips | The expectation of production reduction may be reflected in the far - month contracts, and the spot inventory has peaked and started to decline | 8,700 - 9,000 | 9,500 - 9,800 | | Sugar 2605 | Light - position short - term long | International sugar supply is sufficient. The Chinese sugar - cane crushing season is underway, and the market is worried about a decline in production and sugar - making rate this season, improving bullish sentiment | 5,180 - 5,200 | 5,350 - 5,400 | | Pulp 2605 | Bearish within a range | There are still positive factors in supply and rising warehouse receipt costs, but the recent performance of the downstream market may put pressure on the market | 5,300 - 5,350 | 5,550 - 5,700 | | Offset Paper 2605 | Trade within a range | The spot market is stable, and the widening basis provides short - term support. However, publishing orders may weaken later, and the price increase is limited due to low capacity utilization | 4,000 - 4,100 | 4,300 - 4,350 | | Cotton 2605 | Hold long positions cautiously | The overseas market is at a low level, while the domestic market has positive expectations. There are strong long - term positive expectations, but the short - term sentiment has cooled down, and the price may adjust | 13,500 - 13,600 | 15,400 - 15,500 | [21] Second Part: Market News Changes Apple Market - **Fundamental Information**: In November 2025, the export volume of fresh apples was about 121,600 tons, a month - on - month increase of 51.28% and a year - on - year increase of 12.42%. As of January 8, 2026, the cold - storage inventory of apples in the main producing areas was 673,370 tons, a decrease of 287,300 tons compared with before the New Year's Day and a year - on - year decrease of 668,600 tons [22]. - **Spot Market**: The mainstream price of late - maturing bagged Fuji apples in Shandong and Shaanxi is stable. In the sales area, the arrival of goods is stable, but the sales speed has slowed down recently [22][23][24]. Jujube Market As of January 4, the physical inventory of 36 sample points was 15,649 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 1.57% and a year - on - year increase of 38.34%. The acquisition in Xinjiang is basically over, and the supply in the mainland has decreased. The market is in a traditional sales peak season, and the actual sales performance needs attention [25]. Sugar Market In 2025, Ukraine's sugar export volume dropped to 463,700 tons from 746,000 tons in 2024. As of January 8, 2026, in the 2025/26 sugar - crushing season, 197 sugar mills in India's Maharashtra state had started crushing, 2 less than the same period last season; the sugarcane crushed was 63.292 million tons, an increase of 19.878 million tons; the sugar production was 5.6297 million tons, with an average sugar - making rate of 8.89%. As of January 7, 2026, in Thailand, the cumulative sugarcane crushed was 16.9782 million tons, a decrease of 25.35% year - on - year; the sugar production was 1.5309 million tons, a decrease of 27.03% [27]. Pulp Market As of December 31, the pulp price was stable. In January, some companies increased the price of BHK pulp shipped to China and other Asian markets by $20 per ton. Two large pulp - paper integrated enterprises' large - scale purchases tightened the supply and pushed up the price [29]. Offset Paper Market The inventory days of offset paper increased by 0.76% compared with last Thursday, and the weekly increase narrowed by 0.93 percentage points. The social demand is still weak, and the inventory pressure has increased. The operating load rate was 55.24%, a month - on - month increase of 1.02 percentage points, and the weekly increase expanded by 0.23 percentage points [30]. Cotton Market In November, Australia's cotton export volume was about 131,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 36.2% and a year - on - year increase of 35.8%. As of January 9, 2026, the cumulative inspection volume of U.S. upland cotton and Pima cotton was 2.7756 million tons, accounting for 89.2% of the estimated annual output, 9% slower than the same period last year. As of January 3, Brazil's new cotton planting progress was about 31%, 6 percentage points higher than the previous week and slightly faster than the same period last year [31]. Third Part: Market Review Futures Market Review | Variety | Closing Price | Daily Change | Daily Change Rate | | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | | Apple 2605 | 9,630 | - 59 | - 0.61% | | Jujube 2605 | 9,160 | 10 | 0.11% | | Sugar 2605 | 5,285 | - 3 | - 0.06% | | Pulp 2605 | 5,490 | - 60 | - 1.08% | | Cotton 2605 | 14,625 | - 50 | - 0.34% | [32] Spot Market Review | Variety | Spot Price | Month - on - Month Change | Year - on - Year Change | | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | | Apple (yuan/jin) | 4.45 | 0 | 0.45 | | Jujube (yuan/kg) | 9.40 | - 0.10 | - 5.30 | | Sugar (yuan/ton) | 5,360 | 10 | - 660 | | Pulp (Shandong Silver Star) | 5,550 | - 30 | - 880 | | Offset Paper (Sun Tianyang - Tianjin) | 4,450 | 0 | - 500 | | Cotton (yuan/ton) | 15,857 | - 73 | 1,214 | [40] Fourth Part: Basis Situation No specific data analysis is provided in the report, but there are relevant basis trend graphs for apple, jujube, sugar, pulp, and cotton [51][54][56][58][60]. Fifth Part: Inter - month Spread Situation | Variety | Spread | Current Value | Month - on - Month Change | Year - on - Year Change | Forecast | Recommended Strategy | | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | | Apple | 5 - 10 | 1,217 | 137 | 1,701 | Bullish within a range | Buy on dips | | Jujube | 9 - 1 | 205 | 80 | - 390 | Range - bound | Wait and see | | Sugar | 5 - 9 | - 6 | 5 | - 127 | Fluctuating | Wait and see | | Cotton | 5 - 9 | - 170 | 15 | - 5 | Bearish within a range | Sell on rallies | [59] Sixth Part: Futures Positioning Situation The report provides graphs of the top 20 long and short positions, trading volume changes, and net long and short position changes for apple, jujube, sugar, pulp, and cotton futures [65][67][71][77][79]. Seventh Part: Futures Warehouse Receipt Situation | Variety | Warehouse Receipt Volume | Month - on - Month Change | Year - on - Year Change | | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | | Apple | 0 | 0 | 0 | | Jujube | 2,820 | 297 | - 419 | | Sugar | 8,939 | 2,934 | - 6,518 | | Pulp | 142,363 | 5,874 | - 194,678 | | Cotton | 7,768 | 380 | 2,160 | [87] Eighth Part: Option - related Data - **Apple Options**: The report provides graphs of trading volume, open interest, put - call ratio, and historical volatility [90][91]. - **Sugar Options**: Graphs of trading volume, open interest, put - call ratio, and historical volatility are provided [92][94][97]. - **Cotton Options**: Graphs of trading volume, open interest, put - call ratio, and historical volatility are presented [99][101][103].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No information provided regarding industry investment ratings. 2. Core Views of the Reports 2.1 Red Dates - Current market supply is sufficient, pre - Spring Festival stocking has not started, and overall market trading is light. Futures warehouse receipts are gradually increasing, and attention should be paid to the progress of social inventory reduction. In the short term, the fundamental situation has no obvious driving force, and futures prices will fluctuate and consolidate [1]. 2.2 Apples - In the short term, the futures market is supported by a low good - fruit rate and low inventory. As the Spring Festival stocking season approaches, market activity has increased. In the medium to long term, high - quality apples are in short supply and prices are firm, but high - priced apples may suppress consumption, and the price advantage of other fruits may挤占 the apple market, resulting in large inventory pressure for ordinary apples. The futures market will fluctuate at a high level, with near - term prices stronger than long - term prices [3][8]. 2.3 Sugar - ICE raw sugar futures closed down, but the decline was limited by the weakening US dollar. The market's focus has shifted to Brazil's 26/27 sugar - cane crushing season starting in April. In India, production is strong, while Thailand's crushing season is progressing slowly. Overall, raw sugar prices will remain volatile in the range of 14.5 - 15.5 cents per pound. In the domestic market, the production and sales data of Guangxi and Yunnan are mixed, in line with market expectations. With the Spring Festival approaching, trading is acceptable, and enterprises are selling at market prices. Considering the expected increase in production, the market is cautious, and sugar prices are expected to remain volatile at a low level [10]. 2.4 Cotton - ICE cotton futures closed slightly higher. The January USDA supply - demand report predicted stable cotton demand and lower production estimates. The drought index in the US cotton - growing areas is rising, but it is still early for sowing, and further observation is needed. USDA export sales have been declining, and export expectations may be revised downwards. US cotton is expected to remain volatile at a low level. Zhengzhou cotton is supported by the rigid demand of textile enterprises at low prices, but the unfavorable factors for Zhengzhou cotton are gradually increasing. Overall, cotton prices may enter a period of adjustment in the short term [13]. 2.5 Corn - Snowfall in Northeast China has affected the supply of corn, and pre - festival stocking by some downstream enterprises has supported prices. The futures price increase has boosted market sentiment, and prices in production areas and northern ports are rising. In North China, the pace of grain sales is stable, and prices are fluctuating slightly. In terms of demand, deep - processing enterprises still have a willingness to replenish inventory, but their acceptance of high - priced corn is limited; feed enterprises have sufficient inventory and are mainly replenishing inventory on a rolling basis. In terms of policy, the targeted auction of imported corn and the release of policy corn continue, but the scale is limited. Overall, the tight supply of corn and the rigid demand for stocking by downstream enterprises support the upward movement of corn prices [16][18]. 2.6 Oils - **Palm Oil**: After the release of the MPOB report, negative factors have been digested, and positive export data have supported the market. Crude palm oil futures may approach 4200 - 4250 ringgit. In the domestic market, affected by the rise of Malaysian palm oil and pre - festival stocking expectations, Dalian palm oil futures may continue to strengthen and approach 9000 yuan. - **Soybean Oil**: The USDA report is bearish, and CBOT soybeans may experience a correction after a period of stagnant growth. CBOT soybean oil may follow suit. In the domestic market, soybean oil inventory in factories is decreasing, but the USDA reports are negative for the market, and Dalian soybean oil may test the support level of 7900 yuan. - **Rapeseed Oil**: The limited increase in international crude oil has provided weak support for the domestic vegetable oil market. Concerns about future rapeseed oil supply due to the Canadian Prime Minister's visit to China have led to a weakening sentiment. Rapeseed oil may maintain a wide - range volatile pattern. The basis price of rapeseed oil remains high due to the delay in the start - up of domestic crushing plants [19]. 2.7 Pigs - Spot prices have returned to a volatile pattern. After New Year's Day, market demand has significantly declined. Northern pig farmers have reduced the number of pigs for sale, while southern demand has dropped significantly. Although there is still some restocking in local second - fattening, the enthusiasm is limited due to the relatively high current pig prices. The market expects an increase in supply in the future. The market is betting on pre - Spring Festival consumption, but it is expected that pigs will be sold in mid - to late January, and the overall supply in January will be relatively loose. The upward space for the futures market is limited, and short - selling on rallies is recommended [20][21]. 2.8 Eggs - On the supply side, the recent increase in egg prices has improved breeding profitability, leading to a decrease in farmers' willingness to cull laying hens. The number of newly - laid hens has increased slightly, but due to weather conditions, the egg weight has increased rapidly, resulting in a significant shortage of small - and medium - sized eggs compared to large - sized eggs. Overall, the supply is still in an oversupply stage. On the demand side, food enterprises are in the peak production season, and their procurement volume is increasing. With the Spring Festival approaching, the festival stocking plans of various links in the terminal consumer market have been gradually launched, and the willingness to purchase at low prices has increased. However, the procurement intensity of household consumption has not changed significantly, and the current increase in demand is mainly reflected in the inventory turnover of the trading links. After the recent price increase, the market has short - term digestion pressure and may experience a slight decline. Considering the overall loose supply, egg futures prices are expected to remain volatile at a low level [23]. 2.9 Meal - US soybeans are strongly influenced by capital and sentiment, and the market is looking forward to the USDA supply - demand report on Monday for new trading guidance. The domestic purchase of soybean cargoes is fast, and the supply in the domestic market will be continuously supplemented by US soybeans and reserve sales. The visit of Canada to China has sent positive signals, and the relationship between China and Canada is expected to ease, which has dragged down the domestic rapeseed meal market. The domestic spot market remains loose, and soybean and soybean meal inventories are still at a high level. There are also many expectations of auctions, which have put pressure on the market. Although the expected arrival of soybeans in the first quarter is low and the arrival rhythm is uncertain, the downward space for soybean meal is limited, and the upward movement is mainly affected by policy factors. The short - term market sentiment is positive, and the futures market will maintain a range - bound volatile pattern [24]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Red Dates - **Futures Market**: The prices of red date 2605, 2607, and 2609 contracts have increased slightly, with increases of 0.11%, 0.05%, and 0.48% respectively. The 5 - 7 spread has increased by 11.11%, and the 5 - 9 spread has decreased by 21.88%. - **Spot Market**: The prices of Cangzhou's special - grade, first - grade, and second - grade red dates are 9490 yuan/ton, 8200 yuan/ton, and 7000 yuan/ton respectively. The special - grade red date price has decreased by 0.32%, and the first - and second - grade prices have remained unchanged. - **Warehouse Receipts**: The number of warehouse receipts is 2820, an increase of 11.77%, and the number of valid forecasts is 472, a decrease of 23.25%. The total of warehouse receipts and valid forecasts is 3292, an increase of 4.91% [1]. 3.2 Apples - **Futures Market**: The price of the apple 2605 (main contract) has decreased by 0.61%, and the price of the apple 2610 contract has increased by 0.11%. The basis has increased by 3.96%, and the 5 - 10 spread has decreased by 5.59%. - **Market Arrivals**: The arrivals at Chalong, Jiangmen, and Xiaqiao fruit wholesale markets have increased by 14.29%, 9.09%, and 12.50% respectively. - **Inventory and Profits**: The national cold - storage inventory has decreased by 1.73%, the factory - warehouse delivery profit has decreased by 4.38%, and the surface profit has decreased by 6.35% [3]. 3.3 Sugar - **Futures Market**: The prices of sugar 2605 and 2609 contracts have decreased by 0.06% and 0.15% respectively. The ICE raw sugar main contract has decreased by 0.47%. The 5 - 9 spread has increased by 45.45%. The main - contract position has decreased by 0.33%. The number of warehouse receipts has increased by 48.86%, and the number of valid forecasts has decreased by 42.38%. - **Spot Market**: The prices in Nanning and Kunming are 5360 yuan/ton and 5230 yuan/ton respectively. The Nanning basis has decreased by 8.54%, and the Kunming basis has increased by 5.17%. The prices of imported Brazilian sugar (within quota and out - of - quota) have decreased by 0.52%. - **Industry Situation**: The national sugar production and sales have decreased by 16.43% and 37.18% respectively. The sugar production and sales in Guangxi have decreased by 29.42% and 40.96% respectively. The national and Guangxi sugar sales ratios have decreased by 24.77% and 23.20% respectively. The national industrial inventory has increased by 10.82%, the Guangxi industrial inventory has decreased by 5.55%, and the Yunnan industrial inventory has increased by 85.45%. Sugar imports have decreased by 16.98% [10]. 3.4 Cotton - **Futures Market**: The prices of cotton 2605 and 2609 contracts have decreased by 0.34% and 0.44% respectively. The ICE US cotton main contract has increased by 0.12%. The 5 - 9 spread has increased by 8.11%. The main - contract position has decreased by 3.66%. The number of warehouse receipts has increased by 5.14%, and the number of valid forecasts has decreased by 4.57%. - **Spot Market**: The Xinjiang arrival price of 3128B cotton and the CC Index 3128B have decreased by 0.52% and 0.46% respectively. The FC Index M 1% has remained unchanged. - **Industry Situation**: The commercial inventory has increased by 23.5%, the industrial inventory has decreased by 0.2%, the import volume has increased by 33.3%, the bonded - area inventory has increased by 15.8%, the yarn inventory days have decreased by 4.6%, the grey - cloth inventory days have increased by 4.4%, the spinning - enterprise C32s immediate processing profit has increased by 3.6%, the retail sales of clothing, footwear, and textiles have increased by 4.8%, the year - on - year growth rate of the month has decreased by 44.4%, the export value of textile yarns, fabrics, and products has increased by 9.0%, the year - on - year growth rate of the month has increased by 110.8%, the export value of clothing and clothing accessories has increased by 5.4%, and the year - on - year growth rate has increased by 31.4% [13]. 3.5 Corn - **Futures Market**: The price of the corn 2603 contract has increased by 1.19%, the 3 - 7 spread has increased by 115.38%. The price of the corn starch 2603 contract has decreased by 1.22%, and the 3 - 7 spread has increased by 38.30%. - **Spot Market**: The Jinzhou Port flat - hatch price has increased by 0.43%, the Shekou Port market price has increased by 0.41%. The north - south trading profit has decreased by 1000.00%, and the import profit has decreased by 18.58%. The average price of corn starch has increased by 0.04%. - **Inventory and Other Data**: The early - morning remaining vehicles at Shandong deep - processing plants have decreased by 21.96%. The corn position has increased by 3.99%, and the number of warehouse receipts has increased by 4.16%. The corn starch position has increased by 1.46%, and the number of warehouse receipts has remained unchanged [16]. 3.6 Oils - **Futures Market**: The price of the Y2605 soybean oil contract has decreased by 0.35%, the P2605 palm oil contract has increased by 0.48%, and the OI605 rapeseed oil contract has decreased by 0.69%. The soybean - palm oil spread, soybean - rapeseed oil spread, and palm oil - rapeseed oil spread have changed to varying degrees. - **Spot Market**: The prices of first - grade soybean oil in Jiangsu, 24 - degree palm oil in Guangdong, and third - grade rapeseed oil in Jiangsu have decreased by 0.35%, 0.35%, and 1.02% respectively. - **Inventory and Profits**: The soybean oil inventory in China has decreased, the palm oil inventory in China has changed, and the rapeseed oil inventory in China has changed. The import cost and profit of palm oil in Guangzhou Port have changed [19]. 3.7 Pigs - **Futures Market**: The price of the live - pig 2605 contract has increased by 3.10%, the 2603 contract has decreased by 0.41%, and the 3 - 5 spread has increased by 3.37%. The main - contract basis is 1165, and the main - contract position has increased by 0.84%. The number of warehouse receipts has remained unchanged. - **Spot Market**: The spot prices in Henan, Shandong, Sichuan, Liaoning, Guangdong, Hebei, etc. have changed to varying degrees. The sample - point slaughter volume has decreased by 0.09%, the white - strip price has remained unchanged, the piglet price has increased by 6.45%, the sow price has increased by 0.03%, the slaughter weight has decreased by 0.09%, the self - breeding profit has increased by 66.64%, the purchased - piglet breeding profit has increased by 95.22%, and the number of fertile sows has decreased by 1.12% [20][21]. 3.8 Eggs - **Futures Market**: The prices of the egg 03 and 04 contracts have decreased by 0.66% and 0.57% respectively. The basis has increased by 59.63%, and the 3 - 4 spread has decreased by 0.36%. - **Spot Market**: The egg - producing area price has increased by 3.21%, the egg - chicken chick price has increased by 3.57%, the culled - chicken price has increased by 3.29%, the egg - feed ratio has increased by 3.42%, and the breeding profit has increased by 18.01% [23]. 3.9 Meal - **Futures Market**: The price of the M2605 soybean meal contract has increased by 0.14%, the RM2605 rapeseed meal contract has decreased by 0.34%, the price of the soybean - one main contract has decreased by 0.50%, and the price of the soybean - two main contract has increased by 0.09%. The soybean meal 05 - 09 spread, rapeseed meal 05 - 09 spread, oil - meal ratio, and soybean - rapeseed meal spread have changed to varying degrees. - **Spot Market**: The prices of Jiangsu soybean meal, Jiangsu rapeseed meal, Harbin soybeans, and Jiangsu imported soybeans have changed to varying degrees. - **Inventory and Profits**: The number of soybean meal warehouse receipts has remained unchanged, the number of rapeseed meal warehouse receipts has remained unchanged, the number of soybean warehouse receipts has decreased by 1.01%. The Brazilian 2 - month shipping - date import crushing profit has increased by 32.4%, and the Canadian 3 - month shipping - date import crushing profit has remained unchanged [24].

农产品日报（2026 年 1 月 13 日） 一、研究观点 | 品种 | 点评 | 观点 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 周一，玉米主力 | 2603 | 合约增仓上行，近月领涨、远期跟涨，3 | 月合约期价接近 | 2300 | 元整数关口，多头情绪占据主导。现货市场方面，受期货上涨影响，玉米现 | | | | | | | | | | | | 货市场节前备货对价格窄幅调整。基层购销相对平稳，贸易商对优质玉米建库意 | 愿逐渐增强。下游企业库存同比偏低，但节期、现报价提供支撑。东北近日有降 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 雪，或影响玉米上量。销区进入节前备货模式，但随着近期拍卖量的增加，销区 | 需求有一定的补给，销区采购需求多样化。周末华北地区玉米价格有涨有跌，主 | 玉米 | 震荡 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 流价格保持稳定， ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints - The report presents the daily data of commodity options on January 12, 2026, including the futures and options market statistics and option quantitative indicators of agricultural products, energy chemicals, black commodities, and metals [1][5][9][11] 3. Summary by Category 3.1 Agricultural Products 3.1.1 Futures Market Statistics - Various agricultural products show different price changes, trading volumes, and open interest changes. For example, the closing price of corn (c2603) is 2290 with a change of 27, and the trading volume increases by 98441 [1] 3.1.2 Options Market Statistics - Data on the trading volume, PCR (Put - Call Ratio), and open interest of options for different agricultural products are provided, along with their changes [3] 3.1.3 Option Quantitative Indicators - Includes information such as remaining trading days, at - the - money volatility, and its changes, as well as historical volatility and skew for different agricultural product options [4] 3.2 Energy Chemicals 3.2.1 Futures Market Statistics - Different energy chemical products have distinct price movements, trading volume changes, and open interest changes. For instance, the closing price of PTA (ta2605) is 5142 with an increase of 34, and the trading volume increases by 504652 [5] 3.2.2 Options Market Statistics - Information on the trading volume, PCR, and open interest of options for energy chemical products, along with their changes [6][7] 3.2.3 Option Quantitative Indicators - Details about remaining trading days, at - the - money volatility, and its changes, historical volatility, and skew for energy chemical product options [8] 3.3 Black Commodities 3.3.1 Futures Market Statistics - The futures market statistics of black commodities like iron ore, power coal, and rebar are presented, including price changes, trading volumes, and open interest changes [9] 3.3.2 Options Market Statistics - Data on the trading volume, PCR, and open interest of options for black commodities, along with their changes [9] 3.3.3 Option Quantitative Indicators - Information on remaining trading days, at - the - money volatility, and its changes, historical volatility, and skew for black commodity options [10] 3.4 Metals 3.4.1 Futures Market Statistics - The futures market statistics of metals such as gold, silver, and copper are shown, including price changes, trading volumes, and open interest changes [11] 3.4.2 Options Market Statistics - Data on the trading volume, PCR, and open interest of options for metals, along with their changes [12] 3.4.3 Option Quantitative Indicators - Details about remaining trading days, at - the - money volatility, and its changes, historical volatility, and skew for metal options [13]

联系方式：0371-65617380 | 板块 | 品种 | 多（空） | 推荐理由 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | 【行情复盘】 | | | | | 昨日夜盘玉米期货震荡偏强，截至夜盘收盘主力合约2603合约涨幅0.75%，收于229 | | | | | 3元/吨。 | | | | | 【重要资讯】 | | | | | 1、中国粮油商务网数据显示昨日深加工企业收购价整体稳定。东北地区企业主流 | | | | | 收购价2163元/吨；华北地区企业收购均价2254元/吨。 | | | | | 2、中国粮油商务网数据显示昨日南北港口价格继续走强。锦州港15%水二等玉米收 | | | | | 购价2275-2280元/吨，较上周五涨20元/吨；蛇口港玉米成交价2420元/吨，较上周 | | | | | 五持平。 | | | | | 3、大商所数据显示，截至1月12日玉米期货仓单数量较前一交易日增1520手，共计 | | | | | 38075手。 | | | | | 4、美国农业部1月份供需报告调高美玉米产量和库存，CBOT玉米承压下跌。2025/ | | | 玉米 | 区 ...

Core Viewpoint - The domestic grain market shows significant positive movement, particularly in early indica rice futures, which remain stable at 2500.00 yuan/ton as of the report date [1]. Market Information - As of January 10, Brazil's first corn planting rate reached 89.9%, up from 88.3% the previous week and higher than 87.1% during the same period last year, exceeding the five-year average of 85.7% [1]. - Brazil's corn harvesting rate is at 2.4%, an increase from 0.7% the previous week, and comparable to 2.3% last year, but below the five-year average of 4.2% [1]. - In the United States, 66.67% of major corn-producing areas are expected to experience below-normal temperatures in the next 6-10 days, while 67% anticipate near-normal precipitation levels [1]. U.S. Corn Outlook - The USDA's projections for the 2025/26 U.S. corn season indicate an increase in production, with higher feed and waste usage, while food, seed, and industrial usage are expected to decline, leading to an increase in ending stocks [1]. - As of December 1, 2025, total U.S. corn stocks are reported at 1.33 billion bushels, a 10% increase year-on-year. On-farm stocks are at 870 million bushels, up 14% year-on-year, while off-farm stocks are at 458 million bushels, a 4% increase year-on-year [1]. - Corn consumption is projected at 5.29 billion bushels, compared to 4.58 billion bushels during the same period last year [1].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - The soybean meal market shows a pattern of near - strong and far - weak. The near - month 03 contract is supported by de - stocking expectations and cost, but the upside is limited due to spot supply - demand relaxation and state - reserve soybean auctions. The 05 contract is bearish under the background of South American harvest expectations and domestic supply - demand relaxation [8]. - The three major oils show a differentiated trend in the short term. Soybean and palm oils may stop falling and rebound, but the upside is limited by the potentially bearish MPOB December report and South American new - crop soybean harvest expectations. Rapeseed oil is in a weak shock trend due to the expected marginal relaxation of domestic supply - demand and the possible cancellation of anti - dumping duties on Canadian rapeseed products [72]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Soybean Meal 3.1.1 Period and Spot End - As of January 9, the East China spot price of soybean meal was 3100 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan/ton weekly; the M2605 contract closed at 2786 yuan/ton, up 37 yuan/ton weekly; the basis quote was 05 + 300 yuan/ton, remaining unchanged. US soybean prices rebounded from the bottom, supported by China's purchases, but the upside was limited. Domestic soybean meal first rose and then fell, with price pressure after the auction information was released on Thursday [8][10]. 3.1.2 Supply End - The market maintains the expectation of a bountiful South American soybean harvest in the 2025/26 season. Global soybean supply growth is lower than demand growth, with ending stocks and the stock - to - use ratio declining. In 2025/26, global soybean production is 422 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 5.39 million tons. China's soybean imports are expected to be 112 million tons, an increase of 4 million tons year - on - year. The supply pattern is tight first and then loose [8]. 3.1.3 Demand End - Current soybean meal demand remains high, supported by high pig and poultry inventories and good cost - performance. In the first week of 2026, the national oil mill soybean inventory rose to 7.1025 million tons, up 8.53% week - on - week and 19.48% year - on - year; the national oil mill soybean meal inventory increased slightly to 1.1702 million tons, up 0.22% week - on - week and 71.18% year - on - year [8]. 3.1.4 Cost End - The cost of Brazilian soybeans in the 2025/26 season is 950 cents/bu. The domestic soybean meal cost from May to August is estimated to be 2580 yuan/ton, and from July to September, it rises to 2760 yuan/ton. The cost of US soybeans in the second half of 2025/26 is 1000 cents/bu, and the domestic import cost is 3000 yuan/ton. Brazilian soybean crushing profit has risen to around 100 yuan/ton [8]. 3.1.5 Market Summary - The near - month 03 contract is strongly supported by de - stocking expectations and cost, but the upside is limited. The 05 contract is bearish under the background of South American harvest expectations and domestic supply - demand relaxation. The near - strong and far - weak pattern continues [8]. 3.2 Oils 3.2.1 Period and Spot End - As of the week of January 9, the palm oil main 05 contract rose 98 yuan/ton to 8682 yuan/ton compared with December 31; the Guangzhou 24 - degree palm oil rose 90 yuan/ton to 8680 yuan/ton; the palm oil 05 basis fell 8 yuan/ton to - 2 yuan/ton. The soybean oil main 05 contract rose 132 yuan/ton to 7994 yuan/ton; the Zhangjiagang Grade 4 soybean oil rose 110 yuan/ton to 8490 yuan/ton; the soybean oil 05 basis fell 22 yuan/ton to 496 yuan/ton. The rapeseed oil main 05 contract fell 45 yuan/ton to 9042 yuan/ton; the Fangchenggang Grade 3 rapeseed oil remained at 9920 yuan/ton; the rapeseed oil 05 basis rose 45 yuan/ton to 878 yuan/ton [72][73]. 3.2.2 Palm Oil - The market expects the Malaysian palm oil inventory in December to rise to 3 million tons, a near - 7 - year high. However, the latest high - frequency data shows a significant decline in production and a sharp increase in exports in January. Indonesia may continue to confiscate plantations and increase export taxes in 2026. In China, palm oil prices have fallen to improve import profits, and new purchases have limited the de - stocking speed. As of the week of January 2, domestic palm oil inventory decreased slightly to 733,800 tons [72]. 3.2.3 Soybean Oil - The growth of South American soybeans in the 2025/26 season is generally good, and early - sown Brazilian soybeans have started harvesting, competing with US soybeans. The market expects the USDA January report to be bullish, and China's purchases of US soybeans are approaching 10 million tons. The 45Z tax credit rule may stimulate soybean oil biodiesel demand. In China, soybean auctions have resumed, but the seasonal low of soybean arrivals in the first quarter of 2026 and stricter customs inspections help soybean oil de - stock. As of the week of January 2, domestic soybean oil inventory decreased to 1.081 million tons [72]. 3.2.4 Rapeseed Oil - The tight domestic supply - demand situation is gradually easing. The first shipment of Australian rapeseed in the 2025/26 season is expected to be crushed in January, and Russian rapeseed oil exports will be more active after the holiday. The Canadian Prime Minister's visit to China may lead to the cancellation of anti - dumping duties on Canadian rapeseed products. As of the week of January 2, domestic rapeseed oil inventory decreased to 270,000 tons [72]. 3.2.5 Weekly Summary - In the short term, the three major oils show a differentiated trend. Soybean and palm oils may stop falling and rebound, but the upside is limited. Rapeseed oil is in a weak shock trend. In the long term, palm oil will seasonally de - stock in the first quarter of 2026, and soybean oil may rebound, while rapeseed oil will continue to be weak [72]. 3.2.6 Strategy Suggestion - For soybean and palm oils, be cautious about chasing up due to limited short - term rebounds. For rapeseed oil, gradually liquidate previous long positions. Focus on this week's USDA and MPOB reports and China - Canada negotiations [72].

Core Viewpoint - The article presents a comprehensive analysis of the commodity market outlook for 2026, based on insights from 31 institutions covering 47 trading varieties across various sectors including metals, energy, chemicals, and agricultural products [1][2]. Group 1: Agricultural Products & Soft Commodities - Cotton prices are expected to rise, but the upward potential is limited due to seasonal supply pressures and demand recovery dynamics [7][8]. - The core logic for cotton includes a lack of significant growth in domestic production, seasonal impacts on textile industry operations, and limited expansion in planting area due to policy guidance [9][10]. - Price predictions for cotton range from 13,500 to 15,500 CNY per ton, with strategies suggesting buying near the lower end of this range [11][12]. Group 2: Sugar - The sugar market is anticipated to experience a "low first, high later" trend, driven by the recovery of domestic production and weak consumer demand [55][56]. - The core logic indicates that ethanol will play a crucial role in balancing supply and demand, with an overall surplus expected but not catastrophic [57][58]. - Price predictions for sugar are set between 5,100 and 5,700 CNY per ton, with strategies focusing on high selling and low buying opportunities within this range [59][60]. Group 3: Rubber - Natural rubber is expected to remain in a wide fluctuation pattern, while synthetic rubber faces downward pressure [102][106]. - The core contradiction lies between the tight supply of natural rubber and the stable but uninspiring demand, while synthetic rubber faces pressure from increased production capacity [103][104]. - Price predictions for natural rubber range from 13,000 to 17,000 CNY per ton, with strategies suggesting buying near the lower end of this range [105][106]. Group 4: Apples - The apple market is projected to be weak in the short term but may strengthen in the long term due to quality disparities and competition from alternative fruits [140][141]. - The core logic indicates that high-quality apples will maintain strong prices due to scarcity, while lower-quality apples face pressure from consumer demand [142][143]. - Price predictions suggest a high-level fluctuation, with potential adjustments before and after the Spring Festival [144][145]. Group 5: Red Dates - The red date market is expected to operate under a bearish outlook due to oversupply and weak demand [180][181]. - The core logic highlights the pressure from high inventories of old dates and the impact of new crop quality on market dynamics [182][183]. - Price predictions for red dates are set between 8,500 and 9,500 CNY per ton, with strategies focusing on selling high and cautious buying [185][186]. Group 6: Pulp - The pulp market is anticipated to experience wide fluctuations without a clear trend, influenced by high inventories and weak demand [204][210]. - The core contradiction involves the ongoing supply pressure from domestic production and the structural differentiation in demand [205][206]. - Price predictions suggest a key resistance level around 5,500 CNY per ton, with strategies focusing on high selling and low buying opportunities [208][209]. Group 7: Live Pigs - The live pig market is expected to see a "low first, high later" trend, with significant supply pressures in the first half of the year [234][235]. - The core logic indicates that high supply during the off-season will lead to significant inventory pressure, while a seasonal recovery in demand is expected in the second half [234][235]. - The overall market is projected to transition from severe oversupply to a more balanced state by the end of the year [235].