Group 1: Market Trends - The chemical sector experienced a counter-trend rise on November 7, with related ETFs showing significant gains [1][4] - Multiple chemical and new materials ETFs saw increases of over 3% on November 7, while several new energy ETFs rose by more than 2% [4][5] - The Hong Kong biotech sector faced declines, with leading pharmaceutical stocks dropping over 3% [7] Group 2: ETF Performance - Several Hong Kong stock ETFs saw substantial net inflows recently, particularly in the Hang Seng Technology and Hong Kong innovative drug sectors [2][8] - The A500 ETFs showed high trading activity, with four funds exceeding 20 billion yuan in scale, led by Huatai-PB's A500 ETF at 26.463 billion yuan [6][7] - Overall, nearly 20 billion yuan flowed into ETFs, with significant investments in sectors like securities, banking, and electric grid equipment [10] Group 3: Innovation Drug Sector Outlook - The Hong Kong innovative drug index has dropped over 18% since its peak in September, but many institutions believe the sector may soon rebound [3][11] - Fund managers suggest that the current market conditions present a high-probability zone for long-term investments in the biopharmaceutical sector, recommending balanced allocations across various sub-sectors [11][12] - Upcoming international conferences and positive corporate earnings are expected to act as catalysts for the innovative drug sector [12]

Core Insights - The "14th Five-Year Plan" emphasizes accelerating high-level technological self-reliance and building a modern industrial system centered on advanced manufacturing, providing strong momentum for China's high-tech industry [3]. ETF Investment Opportunities - The technology sector, as a policy focus, has historically outperformed most other sectors in the 1-3 years following policy announcements [3]. - Various ETFs related to key sectors under the "14th Five-Year Plan" are highlighted, including: - **Semiconductors**: Semiconductor ETF (512480), Sci-Tech Chip ETF (588200), Semiconductor Equipment ETF (159516), Consumer Electronics ETF (562950) [4]. - **High-end Manufacturing**: Industrial Mother Machine ETF (159667), Sci-Tech Machinery ETF (588850), High-end Equipment ETF (516320) [5]. - **Basic Software**: Software ETF (159852) [5]. - **Biomanufacturing**: Hong Kong Innovative Drug ETF (513120), Innovative Drug ETF (159992) [5]. - **Artificial Intelligence**: AI ETFs including Startup Board AI ETF (159363), Sci-Tech AI ETF (588790), Cloud Computing ETF (516510), and others [7]. - **New Energy**: Photovoltaic ETF (515790), New Energy ETF (516160), Solid-State Battery ETF (159566), and Energy Storage Battery ETF [8]. - **Aerospace and Communication**: Aerospace ETF (159227), Communication ETF (515880) [9].

11月7日，港股三大指数低开后全天表现弱势，截止收盘，恒生指数跌0.92%报26241点，国企指数跌 0.94%报9267点，恒生科技指数跌1.8%报5837点。 | 代码 名称 ^ | 最新价 | | --- | --- | | 800100 国企指数 | 9267.56 -88.41 -0.94% | | 800700 恒生科技指数 5837.36 -106.86 -1.80% | | | 800000 | | 盘面上，大型科技股普遍表现低迷，半导体芯片股、汽车股等多数热门板块下跌，教育股、风电股等纷 纷走低。另一方面，多晶硅行业现拐点信号，新能源物料板块大涨，福莱特玻璃逆势上涨9%，信义光 能、协鑫科技皆强势，黄金股继续领衔有色金属股上涨，建筑材料板块走高，MOS HOUSE涨超12%。 | | | | | 地产发展商 | | 生物技术 | 黄金及贵金 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 银行 | 线上零售商 | 电讯服务 | 汽车 -0.77% | +0.21% | | -2.42% | +1.38% | | -0.02% | - ...

Core Insights - The recent volatility in the A-share market has led to a focus on style rebalancing, with several well-known balanced fund managers preparing their holdings in advance for the third quarter [1] - Fund managers have indicated that the recent rotation expectations in the market are increasing, with the strength of cyclical sectors reflecting a balance between performance and valuation considerations, making the "barbell strategy" a core approach to balance risk and return [1] What is the "Barbell Strategy" - The "barbell strategy" is a diversified multi-asset allocation approach that incorporates both low-risk and high-risk assets to balance the portfolio's risk and return [2] - This strategy can be visualized as a dumbbell, where one end represents low-risk stable assets and the other end represents high-risk high-return assets, creating a "heavy on both ends, light in the middle" structure [2] Investment Structure and Market Adaptability - This investment structure sacrifices potential returns from mid-risk assets in exchange for resilience in extreme market conditions, allowing investors to respond to black swan events and seek returns in stable markets [3] - Investors should avoid mid-risk assets that lack highlights, such as traditional consumer electronics and homogeneous manufacturing industries [7] Practical Implementation of the Barbell Strategy - In practical terms, investors should select conservative assets on the left end of the barbell, such as high-dividend, low-volatility stocks from sectors like utilities and energy [5] - On the right end, the focus should be on high-growth, high-volatility assets, such as innovative technology and new energy sectors [6] - Historical data shows that the CSI Bank Index and the STAR 50 Index can form a basic barbell strategy, as they exhibit a negative correlation [8][10] Dynamic Weight Adjustment - The barbell strategy does not require equal weight on both ends but should be adjusted based on market conditions and individual risk preferences [10] - In optimistic markets, the aggressive end can be increased to 70%, while in pessimistic markets, the defensive end can be raised to 60% [10] ETF Configuration for the Barbell Strategy - The ETF market offers a variety of options across sectors, broad indices, bonds, and overseas investments, with a simple approach being the combination of stock ETFs and bond ETFs to achieve balance [11] - Recent high-performing ETFs include those focused on technology themes, which have shown returns exceeding 80% in the past year [11] - Defensive tools such as dividend ETFs and bond ETFs can provide stable returns and are essential for liquidity management [11]

Group 1: Report Overview - The report focuses on the construction methods and performance of various ETF portfolios in November 2025, including macro-based, macro + momentum, core - satellite, and trinity style rotation portfolios [2] Group 2: ETF Portfolio Construction Methods Based on Macro Approach - Calculate macro - sensitivity of indices tracked by broad - based, industry - themed, and Smart Beta ETFs according to economic, liquidity, and credit variables, and select ETFs monthly. Also consider adding momentum indicators. Traditional cyclical industries are suitable for economic up - periods, TMT for weak - economic but liquid - abundant times, and consumption benefits from credit expansion. Three ETF portfolios are constructed and rebalanced monthly [5] Trinity Style Rotation - Build a mid - to long - term style rotation model centered on macro - liquidity, compared with the CSI 300 index. Combine three models (growth/value, market - cap, and quality) to get 8 style preference results, then screen target - style - exposed ETFs with controlled industry exposure and set allocation limits [6] Group 3: Macro Industry Portfolio - Select industry - themed ETFs with over 1 - year establishment and over 200 million current scale. Calculate sensitivity scores, adjust according to economic, liquidity, and credit indicators, and select the top 6 industry - themed indices. Currently, with economic indicators rising and liquidity/credit tightening, the portfolio turns to value with high bank and cyclical proportions. November holdings are mainly bank and energy - related ETFs, each with a 16.67% weight. The portfolio has large fluctuations and was close to the CSI 300 in October [7][9][11] Group 4: Macro + Momentum Industry Portfolio - Combine macro and momentum methods to address the left - side bias of macro - based strategies. Use clustering to select one product with the highest 6 - month gain from each of 6 industry - themed groups. The portfolio includes many pro - cyclical industries. November holdings have multiple ETFs, with weights like 16.67% for some and 8.33% for others. The portfolio performed well this year and was close to the CSI 300 in October [12][14][15] Group 5: Core - Satellite Portfolio - Designed to address the high volatility and fast industry rotation of industry - themed ETFs. Use the CSI 300 as the core. Construct three sub - portfolios (broad - based, industry, and Smart Beta) and combine them at 50%, 30%, and 20% respectively. November holdings are mainly mid - to large - cap biased. The portfolio performed steadily this year, outperforming the index almost every month, including in October [16][17][21] Group 6: Trinity Style Rotation ETF Portfolio - The model favors small - cap growth + high - quality segments this period. The portfolio's factor exposure and historical performance are provided. November holdings include ETFs such as Southern CSI 500 ETF and Southern CSI 1000 ETF. The portfolio had significant fluctuations in monthly returns and outperformed the index in most months this year, including in October [22][23][26]

↑点击上面图片 加雪球核心交流群 ↑ 风险提示：本文所提到的观点仅代表个人的意见，所涉及标的不作推荐，据此买卖，风险自负。 作者： 小豪只投创新药 来源：雪球 6 月 12 日我在《如何押注创新药的BD》一文中，详细阐述了将「N」业务视为或有 upside 的完整逻辑。然而其后三个月，"赌 BD"一路飞升， "赌 BD"逐渐从合理化变成妖魔化 ：从猜测最有机会的交易，到子虚莫有、几乎不可能发生的交易，都被市场提前计价；"可比交易定价法"逐渐异 化为"预告式定价法"、"MNC 名片定价法"、"晒聊天记录截图定价法"。 当预期明显被透支时，我在 9 月 6 日《后BD时代》中明确警告， 我们应把焦点移回 BD 落地后公司能够沉淀的长期价值，而不只是追逐短期的 交易刺激。 事实也印证了这一点：自 9 月初开始，以"赌 BD"为主线的整个创新药行情，普遍来到阶段性高位。"赌 BD"的公司率先大幅回撤，甚 至波及到其他"已 BD "的公司。 这类预期若长时间未能通过实际BD落实验证，就容易滋生估值泡沫。一旦BD进度不及预期，相关公司的股价可能面临剧烈回调。 ——后BD时代 我们需要接纳泡沫的形成，也要以平常心对待泡沫的 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Hong Kong stock market for innovative drugs is experiencing a downturn, with significant declines in several key companies, while the innovative drug ETF is seeing increased investment interest despite the market drop [1][3]. Group 1: Company Performance - Zai Lab reported a third-quarter product revenue net of $115.4 million, a year-on-year increase of 13%, with a net loss of $36 million, which is an improvement compared to the same period last year [3]. - BeiGene, known as the "king of innovative drugs," achieved a remarkable third-quarter revenue of 10.077 billion yuan, marking a year-on-year growth of 41.1%. The total revenue for the first three quarters reached 27.595 billion yuan, up 44.2% year-on-year, surpassing the total revenue of the previous year, with a net profit attributable to shareholders of 1.139 billion yuan [3]. Group 2: ETF Insights - The Hong Kong Stock Connect Innovative Drug ETF (520880) exclusively tracks the Hang Seng Hong Kong Stock Connect Innovative Drug Select Index, which has three unique advantages: it is purely focused on innovative drugs, has a high concentration of leading companies, and offers better risk control by reducing the weight of less liquid stocks [4][5][6]. - As of the end of October, the top ten holdings in the index accounted for 71.51% of the total weight, indicating a strong representation of leading innovative drug companies [7]. - The ETF has surpassed 2 billion yuan in total assets for the first time, with an average daily trading volume of 474 million yuan, making it the largest and most liquid ETF tracking this index [8].

Core Viewpoint - The introduction of the commercial insurance innovative drug directory is expected to address the accessibility and affordability issues of high-priced innovative drugs by guiding market forces [1][3]. Group 1: Policy Changes - The National Medical Insurance Administration organized a 5-day negotiation for the medical insurance drug directory and commercial insurance innovative drug directory, with 120 domestic and foreign companies participating [2]. - The new directory is set to be released in early December and will officially take effect on January 1 of the following year [2]. Group 2: Market Opportunities - The commercial insurance innovative drug directory aims to open market space for high-cost or rare disease medications, particularly for rare disease treatments and high-value innovative drugs [3]. - Notably, five CAR-T drugs have been submitted for approval, which could significantly benefit patients due to their high annual treatment costs [3]. Group 3: Drug Submission Strategies - The introduction of the "dual directory" submission allows companies to choose between submitting for both the basic medical insurance directory and the innovative drug directory, providing more strategic options [4]. - For example, BMS's O drug (Nivolumab) opted for dual submission after previous failures, while competitors like Merck's K drug (Pembrolizumab) have not submitted any applications [4]. Group 4: Competitive Landscape - Domestic innovative drugs are becoming major competitors to imported drugs, with examples like the TROP2 ADC drug Gosituzumab (Gilead) and its domestic counterpart [5]. - The increasing support for innovative drugs from the government and the diversification of the medical insurance payment system are expected to create new market demand for innovative drugs [5]. Group 5: Investment Recommendations - The medical insurance bureau is encouraging the high-quality development of innovative drugs, indicating a warming trend in payment policies [6]. - Relevant investment targets include companies such as Heng Rui Medicine, Kelun Pharmaceutical, and others that are actively transitioning towards innovation [6].

Core Insights - The Shanghai Stock Exchange Sci-Tech Innovation Board's innovative drug index has decreased by 2.09% as of November 7, 2025, with mixed performance among constituent stocks [1] - The Huatai-PineBridge Sci-Tech Innovation Drug ETF has seen a recent increase in scale and shares, reaching a new high of 510 million yuan and 587 million shares respectively [3][4] - The ETF has experienced continuous net inflows over the past eight days, totaling 157 million yuan, with a peak single-day inflow of 45.58 million yuan [4] Market Performance - The ETF's trading volume was active, with a turnover rate of 11.02% and a transaction value of 55.6 million yuan [1] - Over the past week, the ETF has recorded a cumulative increase of 1.87%, ranking in the top half among comparable funds [1] Policy and Industry Support - The National Healthcare Security Administration has initiated a pilot program for intelligent review processes in medical insurance, integrating AI technology [5] - The Chongqing Municipal Government has issued measures to support the high-quality development of innovative drugs, aiming for 1 to 3 new drug approvals annually by 2027 [5] Investment Outlook - Analysts from China Galaxy Securities highlight a structural recovery trend in the pharmaceutical sector, with optimism for continued investment in innovative drugs and a potential revival in financing [5] - Guotai Junan Securities emphasizes that the main investment opportunities in the pharmaceutical sector for 2025-2026 will be in innovative drugs, particularly in areas addressing unmet clinical needs [6]

Core Insights - China's capital market has significantly opened up, with approximately 90% to 95% of the foreign investment access goals achieved, indicating a mature and complete foreign institutional access mechanism [1] - The focus should now be on improving risk management tools, expanding interconnectivity targets, and enhancing capital utilization efficiency to further increase the international appeal of the Chinese market [1] - The provision of predictable macro policies and robust growth fundamentals of listed companies are crucial for attracting long-term international investors [1] Group 1: International Investor Trends - International investors are increasingly active in China, with a notable rise in trading-type investors contributing significantly to market liquidity since September of the previous year [1] - In contrast, allocation-type investors are extending their research efforts and closely monitoring developments in Chinese listed companies, policies, and technological innovations [1] - As of November 7, 2023, foreign institutions have conducted 8,406 research sessions involving 770 A-share companies, focusing on sectors such as telecommunications, pharmaceuticals, semiconductors, and robotics [2] Group 2: Investment Preferences and Growth Sectors - International investors show a preference for large-cap blue-chip stocks with good liquidity and attractive valuations, while also focusing on high-growth sectors like technology, AI, innovative pharmaceuticals, and new consumption [4] - The attractiveness of growth sector companies is often linked to specific events and timing, with recent developments enhancing international recognition of China's technological innovation capabilities [4] - Companies with strong fundamentals, favorable industry policies, and global competitiveness are more appealing to overseas investors, who prioritize long-term strategies over short-term performance [4] Group 3: Globalization and Future Outlook - As Chinese companies expand internationally, sectors like new consumption and innovative pharmaceuticals are gaining increased attention from international investors [5] - Companies must focus on continuous product or model innovation to maintain competitiveness in overseas markets, emphasizing the importance of talent acquisition and local partnerships [5] - The attractiveness of Chinese assets to international investors is expected to rise further by 2026, despite potential market volatility in late 2025, with expectations of sector rotation enhancing overall asset valuations [5]