Report Overview - The report is a fixed - income research report released on November 6, 2025, analyzing the Q3 2025 China Banking Wealth Management Market Quarterly Report [1] Report Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating is provided in the report Core Viewpoints - The total scale of wealth management products has reached a new high, with wealth management subsidiaries accounting for over 90% for the first time. The investment in asset management products has increased, while the investment in credit bonds has decreased [3] Summary by Directory 1. Overall Situation: Continued Record - High in Outstanding Scale, Wealth Management Subsidiaries Account for Over 90% for the First Time - Since June 2023, the outstanding scale of bank wealth management products has been on a continuous upward trend. It exceeded the historical high in June 2022 at the end of 2024, surpassed 30 trillion in June 2025, and reached a new high in September 2025. As of September 2025, the outstanding scale of wealth management subsidiary products reached 29.28 trillion yuan, accounting for 91.13% of all wealth management products [3][12][13] - By operation mode, open - ended products are still the main type, with a total scale of 25.89 trillion yuan, accounting for 80.58% of the total scale of wealth management products [16] 2. Wealth Management Asset Allocation: Increased Outsourcing Investment, Decreased Credit Bond Investment 2.1. Large - Scale Asset Allocation: Continued Increase in Dependence on Outsourcing Investment, Continued Decrease in Direct Investment in Fixed - Income Assets - Before penetration, the dependence on outsourcing investment in bank wealth management continued to increase, and the allocation of bank deposits, settlement reserves, and repurchase of financial assets in the proprietary portfolio decreased. As of Q2 2025, fixed - income assets and asset management products were still the main allocation directions of wealth management funds, with a combined proportion of about 83%. The investment in fixed - income assets decreased by about 50 billion yuan compared to the end of 2024, and the proportion decreased by about 2 percentage points. The scale of investment in asset management products increased by about 80 billion yuan compared to the end of 2024, and the proportion increased by 2.66 percentage points [17][18] - After penetration, the total amount and proportion of bond investment continued to decline, while the total amount and proportion of cash and bank deposits continued to rise. As of September 2025, the bond allocation proportion dropped to 40% for the first time, and the cash and bank deposit allocation proportion was close to 30% [4] 2.2. Bond Types in Wealth Management Investment: Continued Decrease in Credit Bond Holdings, Slight Increase in Interest - Rate Bonds - As of Q2 2025, in the top ten holdings of wealth management, the total amount of credit bonds was 1.5 trillion yuan, an increase of 44.6 billion yuan compared to the end of 2024, but the proportion decreased by 1.41 percentage points. The scale of interest - rate bonds was 348.1 billion yuan, an increase of 94.8 billion yuan compared to the end of 2024, and the proportion increased by 2.93 percentage points. The scale of inter - bank certificates of deposit was about 800 billion yuan, a slight decrease of 16.7 billion yuan compared to the end of 2024, and the proportion decreased by 2.3 percentage points [23] - In recent years, wealth management has reduced its holdings of commercial bank bonds, private placement bonds, and corporate bonds. Among them, commercial bank bonds are the largest holding in credit bonds, and private placement bonds are the second - largest holding [27] 2.3. Holding - Period Situation: A Significant Decrease in the Proportion of Short - Term Bonds, Private Placement Bonds, Medium - Term Notes, and Commercial Bank Bonds are the Main Long - Term Investment Targets - The proportion of wealth management products with a term of less than 6 months continued to increase. The proportion of products with a term of less than 6 months increased from 67% to 74%, while the proportion of products with a term of more than 6 months decreased from 32% at the end of 2022 to 26% at the end of Q2 2025 [4][5][28] - The proportion of short - term bonds decreased significantly, while the proportion of long - term bonds continued to increase. Private placement bonds, medium - term notes, and commercial bank bonds are the preferred long - term investment targets for wealth management, and long - term varieties are mainly commercial bank bonds [29][30]

Core Insights - The article emphasizes the shift from being a "critic" to a "practical manager," focusing on balancing multiple objectives in a complex economic environment [4][2] - Zhu Ning highlights the importance of conveying correct expectations as a crucial public good in the current economic landscape [4] Economic Paradigm Shift - Zhu Ning, known for predicting the Chinese real estate bubble, has developed a new understanding of bubbles and debt in the context of significant economic changes [3] - The establishment of the "Debt Management Department" by the Ministry of Finance aligns with Zhu Ning's advocacy for breaking rigid repayment structures and allowing market risk pricing [3] Global Financial Risks - Zhu Ning identifies three overlapping risks in the global financial system: debt leverage traps, the rigidity of asset bubbles, and non-linear shocks from technological finance [4][10] - He warns that the AI era may lead to a degradation of human judgment and create regulatory blind spots, potentially causing traditional risk management systems to fail [4] U.S. Economic Uncertainty - The current tight funding situation in the U.S. is attributed to a combination of policy expectations, fiscal constraints, and asset valuations, which increases volatility in global risk assets [6] - Zhu Ning points out that the unpredictability of U.S. policies, inflation paths, and the fragility of U.S. stock valuations are significant sources of uncertainty for global economic growth [7][8][9] China's Economic Outlook - Zhu Ning expresses a relatively optimistic view of China's economy, noting improvements in market expectations despite ongoing concerns about deflation [13] - He emphasizes the need for structural responses rather than cyclical judgments, highlighting the importance of resource allocation towards "new productive forces" [13] Policy Recommendations - Zhu Ning suggests a balanced approach to managing bubbles, advocating for controlling their growth, avoiding proactive destruction, and ensuring rapid assistance if they burst [25] - He emphasizes the need for fiscal policies that directly stimulate consumption and rebuild public confidence [25] Non-linear Dynamics in Finance - Zhu Ning discusses the challenges of understanding the current non-linear economic landscape, where traditional predictive models may no longer apply [27] - He warns of the dangers of over-reliance on AI, which can lead to a degradation of independent judgment and the spread of misleading information [29] Investment Strategies - Zhu Ning advises extreme diversification in investment portfolios and a thorough understanding of risk, cautioning against traditional investment behaviors [32] - He highlights the potential for significant volatility in U.S. stocks, particularly due to high valuations and structural weaknesses exacerbated by AI-related bubbles [33]

Group 1: Federal Reserve Rate Cut - The Federal Reserve's recent rate cut of 25 basis points is seen as a "risk management" move rather than a direct response to external pressures, with the Fed emphasizing its dual mandate of price stability and maximum employment [2][3] - The internal unity of the Federal Reserve is highlighted by the fact that only one member voted against the rate cut, indicating a commitment to established policy paths despite external pressures from political figures [3] - Long-term challenges to the dollar's credibility are identified, including potential conflicts between inflation control and employment maximization, as well as threats to the Fed's independence due to political interference [4][5] Group 2: Global Monetary Order Transformation - The current global monetary order is undergoing significant changes, with the U.S. dollar's status as a reserve currency being questioned due to aggressive trade policies and interventions by the Trump administration [6][7] - The rise in gold prices and increased gold purchases by emerging markets signal a shift towards diversifying reserves away from the dollar, reflecting a broader trend of "de-dollarization" [6][12] - The potential for a collective loss of confidence in the dollar by U.S. allies could mark a critical point in the transformation of the global monetary system [7] Group 3: Investment Opportunities in China - The recent rebound in the A-share market is driven by institutional investors, suggesting a shift in asset allocation from real estate to equities, influenced by policies aimed at improving the capital market environment [20][21] - The phenomenon of "deposit migration" is noted, where lower deposit rates encourage individuals to seek higher returns in the stock market, although this trend is still developing [22][21] - Long-term, equity assets are expected to become a significant component of wealth diversification for Chinese residents, especially as the real estate market adjusts [21][23] Group 4: Gold and Asset Allocation - The increasing interest in gold as a safe-haven asset is noted, with significant price increases observed, although short-term volatility may present challenges [24] - The potential for gold to serve as a hedge against inflation and currency depreciation is emphasized, alongside the need for individuals to balance their asset allocations between equities and gold based on risk tolerance [24][25] - The ongoing transformation of the global economic landscape presents opportunities for foreign investment in Chinese assets, particularly in the context of the country's economic transition and reforms [25]

10月下旬，上证综指一度突破4000点，虽然之后未能守住，但在4000点上下徘徊。上证综指在3000点上 下运行十年之后，终于到达4000点区间，市场理所当然地予以高度关注。这一现象意味着什么呢？ 这一现象给人最直观的感受是市场信心在很大程度上有了恢复，而信心恢复背后的主要推手是中国经济 基本面的韧劲和资本市场政策的积极作用。在股指达到此区间后，未来还会怎么走，这就有必要认真考 量一系列与股市密切相关的因素在未来一个时期的表现。 图/图虫创意 货币政策是影响股市最基本的政策因素。一年多来，全球主要经济体的货币政策方向发生了转变。美联 储在去年进行了一轮较为集中的降息后曾短暂停顿，近期又两次合计下调联邦基金目标利率0.5个百分 点。从趋势上看，美联储的货币政策在未来三到五年内大概率仍将保持宽松。 我国货币政策基调已由稳健调整为适度宽松，这是近十四年来首次改弦更张。为保持经济在合理水平上 增长，同时又因为物价水平处在较低区间，"十五五"时期，我国收紧货币政策的条件并不存在，适度宽 松仍会成为货币政策的主基调。世界范围内的流动性宽松局面将持续影响国内市场资金供给，未来若干 年资本市场的外部流动性将得到持续保障。 尽 ...

Group 1 - Wall Street analysts indicate that the tightness in the money market may persist until November due to high financing costs, pressuring the Federal Reserve to act before halting balance sheet reduction next month [2] - The overnight secured financing rate surged by 18 basis points last Friday, marking the largest single-day fluctuation since the Fed's rate hike cycle began in March 2020 [2] - Despite a decrease in SOFR on Monday after month-end pressures eased, it remains above the Fed's key policy benchmark rates, including the federal funds rate [2] Group 2 - Bank of America previously anticipated that the Fed would end quantitative tightening (QT) at the end of October and immediately begin asset purchases to expand its balance sheet [2] - Fed Chair Jerome Powell stated that the Fed would eventually start to gradually increase reserve levels to keep pace with the banking system and economic developments, but did not specify a timeline [2] - Other Fed officials, including Vice Chair for Supervision Michael Barr, believe the central bank should maintain the smallest possible balance sheet [2] Group 3 - The Chinese Ministry of Finance plans to issue up to $4 billion in senior bonds, with three companies participating in the issuance [4] - The current yield for China's two-year government bonds is 1.42%, while the ten-year yield is 1.80% [8] - The U.S. two-year government bond yield has decreased by 2 basis points to 3.58%, and the ten-year yield has decreased by 3 basis points to 4.10% [8]

北京城建投资发展股份有限公司（以下简称"公司"）于2024年7月25日召开2024年第一次临时股东大 会，会议审议通过了关于公司拟注册发行中期票据的议案。公司向中国银行间市场交易商协会（以下简 称"交易商协会"）申请注册发行不超过75亿元人民币的中期票据。2024年11月，公司收到交易商协会出 具的《接受注册通知书》（中市协注[2024]MTN1110号），交易商协会决定接受公司中期票据注册，注 册金额为75亿元，注册额度自该通知书落款之日（2024年11月12日）起2年内有效。 近日，公司发行了2025年度第三期中期票据（简称：25京城投MTN003，代码：102584635.IB），发行 金额8亿元，期限3年期，票面利率为2.13%，计息方式为按年付息，起息日为2025年11月05日。 中信建投证券股份有限公司为本期中期票据的主承销商和簿记管理人，中信银行股份有限公司、上海银 行股份有限公司、平安证劵股份有限公司和北京银行股份有限公司为联席主承销商。本期中期票据发行 的有关文件详见中国货币网（www.chinamoney.com.cn）和上海清算所网站（www.shclearing.com）。 证券代码： ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the dialogue is the commitment to enhance practical cooperation in the economic and financial sectors between China and Russia, reaffirming the importance of the China-Russia finance ministers' dialogue mechanism [1] - Both parties agreed to maintain macroeconomic policy coordination to support the development and revitalization of their economies, with the next dialogue scheduled for 2026 in Russia [1] - There is a focus on strengthening cooperation in taxation and finance, including banking, securities, and insurance sectors, as well as enhancing audit supervision and cross-border law enforcement cooperation [1] Group 2 - The dialogue emphasizes the importance of multilateral frameworks such as the G20, BRICS, Shanghai Cooperation Organization, and APEC for coordinating efforts to mitigate risks arising from geopolitical and geoeconomic fragmentation [1] - Both parties expressed a commitment to deepen cooperation within multilateral development banks, advocating for the principles of multilateralism and non-politicization to mobilize more resources for developing countries [2] - Support was voiced for the New Development Bank and the Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank to expand their roles and enhance local currency financing, thereby increasing their influence in the global financial landscape [2]

Core Insights - The overall scale of bank wealth management is expected to reach over 33.5 trillion yuan by the end of the year, indicating a shift from a "savings" to an "investment" mindset among residents [1][8] - As of the end of October, the bank wealth management market reached a record high of 33.18 trillion yuan, with a month-on-month increase of approximately 1.05 trillion yuan, and a year-to-date increase of 3.23 trillion yuan [2][4] - The phenomenon of "deposit migration" is driven by the "price comparison effect," as deposit rates continue to decline, prompting customers to seek higher returns in wealth management products [2][3] Market Dynamics - Despite the strong performance of the equity market this year, wealth management product net values experienced two rounds of declines, yet the overall scale continued to grow, reflecting a "buy the dip" mentality among investors [2][4] - The average yield of wealth management products remains around 2%, while the one-year fixed deposit rates of state-owned banks have dropped below 1.5%, maintaining a relative yield advantage [2][4] - The growth in wealth management scale is attributed to two main factors: the continuous decline in deposit rates and the successful adaptation of wealth management subsidiaries through product innovation [3][5] Yield Trends - Wealth management product yields have been under pressure, showing a quarterly decline, with first-quarter returns of 206 billion yuan dropping to 179.2 billion yuan in the third quarter [4][5] - As of the end of the third quarter, the scale of fixed-income products reached 31.21 trillion yuan, accounting for over 97% of the total, with low interest rates leading to reduced yields on underlying assets [4][5] - The average performance benchmark for open-ended products fell to 1.91% in late October, indicating a downward trend in yields [4][5] Future Outlook - Industry experts expect continued growth in wealth management scale, with projections of an increase of 300 to 400 billion yuan in November, driven by seasonal factors and the relative yield advantage of fixed-income products [7][8] - The monetary policy environment is favorable for wealth management growth, with the central bank's actions expected to enhance liquidity and improve the ability of wealth management companies to manage redemptions and volatility [7][8] - However, the long-term outlook suggests challenges with declining yield averages, as the bond market rates are expected to decrease further, potentially reducing the relative attractiveness of wealth management products [7][8]

Core Viewpoint - The recent monetary policy adjustments by the Federal Reserve and the People's Bank of China (PBOC) indicate a shift towards more flexible monetary tools, aiming to stabilize the economy without resorting to extreme measures like "massive money printing" [1][4][20]. Group 1: Central Bank Actions - The Federal Reserve has lowered interest rates by 25 basis points, from 3.75% to 4% [1]. - The PBOC announced a resumption of purchasing government bonds in the secondary market, which is a conventional tool for liquidity management rather than a sign of "money printing" [3][4]. - In 2024, the PBOC net purchased 1 trillion yuan in government bonds to stabilize the bond market during fluctuations [5]. Group 2: Legal Framework and Monetary Policy - The PBOC is legally restricted from purchasing government bonds directly from the primary market, preventing "monetary financing of fiscal deficits" [3][4]. - The shift in monetary policy reflects a transition from reliance on foreign currency reserves to a more autonomous domestic credit system based on government bonds [13][20]. Group 3: Economic Context and Implications - The historical reliance on foreign exchange reserves for currency issuance has become less viable due to changing global trade dynamics and the need for a more internally driven economic model [11][13]. - The issuance of $4 billion in government bonds in Hong Kong by the Ministry of Finance complements the PBOC's actions, reinforcing the strategy of maintaining international market presence while transitioning to a more self-sufficient economic framework [15][16]. Group 4: Market Reactions and Future Outlook - Following the PBOC's bond purchases, the Shanghai Composite Index surpassed 4000 points, indicating positive market sentiment without overheating [18]. - The adjustments in monetary policy are expected to enhance the pricing benchmark for government bonds, leading to more accurate asset valuations in the real estate and equity markets [20][22]. - The ongoing transformation in monetary mechanisms is anticipated to create a more resilient financial market, ultimately benefiting the broader economy [22].

新京报讯11月5日，财政部发布第十一次中俄财长对话联合声明。以下为全文： 为落实习近平主席与普京总统会晤有关共识，巩固和深化中俄新时代全面战略协作伙伴关系，中国财政 部部长蓝佛安和俄罗斯联邦财政部部长西卢阿诺夫于2025年11月4日在北京共同主持第十一次中俄财长 对话。双方就共同关心的财金议题进行了深入交流，并在以下领域达成了重要共识： 1.双方重申继续发挥中俄财长对话机制重要作用，致力于深化两国经济财金关系，加强宏观经济政策协 调，强化在共同关心的经济财金问题上的沟通与合作，有效提升两国经济财金领域务实合作水平。 2.双方注意到，当前全球经济形势存在高度不确定性，贸易紧张局势持续给全球经济蒙上阴影，中期增 长前景黯淡。尽管遇到阻力，中俄两国将继续保持宏观经济政策协调，助力两国实现发展振兴。 3.双方将进一步加强财税、金融领域交流与合作，积极推进双方财政政策与金融监管合作交流，深化两 国在银行业、证券业和保险业合作。双方愿按照中俄总理第三十次定期会晤共识，稳步推进中俄在银行 领域和资本市场务实合作。在中俄会计准则、审计准则及审计监管等效互认基础上，中俄双方将进一步 加强在会计和审计领域的审计监管交流和跨境执法 ...