在全球央行囤积如山的黄金之际，国际金价却意外遭遇滑铁卢，一幕幕令人费解的场景正在上演。 故事要从特朗普政府挥舞关税大棒说起。正当市场消化这一消息时，国际金价走势诡谲。周一，国际金价一度冲上3375美元的三周高点，看似即将突破3380 美元的关键阻力位。然而，仅仅两小时后，金价却突然掉头向下，暴跌30美元，甚至跌穿了3350美元的支撑位。纽约交易员的屏幕上一片刺眼的红色，7月 15日早盘，伦敦金现货价格直接跌至3344.43美元，创下一周新低，较前一日暴跌23.74美元。 这一波暴跌，恰逢中国央行连续8个月扫货、全球央行每月狂买77吨黄金的关键时刻。高盛此前还喊出了明年4000美元的目标价，但市场却用真金白银投了 反对票。 更令人费解的是，国内金店仍在硬扛千元大关。周大福的挂牌价冲到了1005元/克，而回收价却只有750元/克，中间250元的价差，犹如一把锋利的刀片悬在 买家头顶。股市也呈现出分裂的态势：中金黄金涨停，而湖南黄金却因锑矿业务的拖累逆势下跌1.84%，炒金客的悲喜似乎并不在同一个频道。 原油暴跌也给黄金补了一刀。张志邻团队挂在68美元的原油空单一击命中，美油单日暴跌4.2%，逼近65美元。当铜价也 ...

现货黄金 金十图示：2025年07月17日（周四）上海金早盘价为772.69元/克，较国际金价(770.95元/克)，高1.74元/克 ...

Report Industry Investment Ratings No specific industry investment ratings are provided in the report. Core Viewpoints The report provides trend forecasts for various commodities in the futures market, including precious metals, base metals, energy, agricultural products, etc., and analyzes their fundamentals and market news [2][5]. Summary by Commodity Precious Metals - **Gold**: Expected to oscillate upwards, with a trend strength of 1 [2][10]. - **Silver**: Expected to break through and rise, with a trend strength of 1 [2][10]. Base Metals - **Copper**: Market is cautious, and prices will oscillate, with a trend strength of 0 [2][11]. - **Zinc**: Under pressure, with a trend strength of -1 [2][15]. - **Lead**: Downside may be limited, with a trend strength of 0 [2][18]. - **Tin**: Prices are weakening, with a trend strength of -1 [2][23]. - **Aluminum**: Facing upward pressure, with a trend strength of 0; Alumina: Attention should be paid to the impact of the ore end, with a trend strength of -1; Cast aluminum alloy: Will oscillate within a range, with a trend strength of 0 [2][26]. - **Nickel**: News affects sentiment, and fundamentals are under pressure, with a trend strength of 0; Stainless steel: Reality and macro factors are in a game, and steel prices will oscillate, with a trend strength of 0 [2][31]. Energy - **Crude Oil - Related**: - **Fuel oil**: Weakly oscillating at night, may temporarily stabilize in the short - term [5]. - **Low - sulfur fuel oil**: Temporarily weak, with a slight decline in the high - low sulfur spread of the outer - market spot [5]. - **LPG**: Cost support is effective, may rebound in the short - term [5]. - **Coal - Related**: - **Coking coal**: Will oscillate widely, with a trend strength of 0 [2][52]. - **Coke**: Will oscillate widely, with a trend strength of 0 [2][52]. - **Steam coal**: Daily consumption is recovering, and prices will oscillate and stabilize, with a trend strength of 0 [54][57]. Chemicals - **Carbonate Lithium**: Warehouse receipts continue to decline, pay attention to substantial changes in supply, with a trend strength of 1 [32][35]. - **Industrial Silicon**: Market sentiment is fermenting, pay attention to upward space, with a trend strength of 1 [36][38]. - **Polysilicon**: Market news continues to ferment, with a trend strength of 1 [36][38]. - **PTA**: In the off - season of demand, with a weak unilateral trend [2]. - **MEG**: Low inventory, positive spread arbitrage on dips [2]. - **Styrene**: Spot liquidity is released, weakly oscillating [2]. - **Soda Ash**: Little change in the spot market [5]. - **PVC**: Weakly oscillating [5]. Agricultural Products - **Palm Oil**: Doubts about production recovery in the origin, waiting for the evolution of contradictions [5]. - **Soybean Oil**: Lack of driving force due to insufficient weather speculation on US soybeans [5]. - **Soybean Meal**: Export expectations improve, US soybeans rise, and domestic soybean meal rebounds [5]. - **Corn**: Pay attention to the spot [5]. - **Sugar**: Waiting for guidance from super - expected information [5]. - **Cotton**: Futures prices hit a new high this year [5]. - **Eggs**: The expectation of a rebound in the peak season is fulfilled, and the sentiment of culling declines [5]. - **Pigs**: Sentiment has changed [5]. - **Peanuts**: There is support below [5]. Others - **Shipping**: For the container shipping index (European line), hold 10 - 12 and 10 - 02 reverse spreads lightly [5]. - **Logs**: Oscillate repeatedly, with a trend strength of 0 [58][61].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - For domestic assets, there are mainly structural opportunities, with the policy - driven logic being strengthened. The probability of incremental domestic policies being implemented in the fourth quarter is higher. Attention should be paid to the impact of the "anti - involution" policy on the supply - side on assets. Overseas, attention should be paid to tariff frictions and geopolitical risks. In the long term, the weak - dollar pattern continues, and volatility jumps should be guarded against. Strategic allocation of resources such as gold should be maintained [6]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Macro Essentials Overseas Macro - The "reciprocal tariff" rates of the United States for most economies have been announced. Except for Japan and Malaysia, most rates have been lowered, and short - term tariff uncertainty has declined. In May, the US wholesale sales monthly rate was - 0.3%, and the wholesale inventory monthly rate final value was - 0.3%. In June, the 1 - year inflation expectation of the New York Fed was 3.0%. The number of new non - farm jobs in the US in June was better than expected, but there were concerns in the employment market. The "Big and Beautiful" Act in the US on July 4 will increase the US deficit by $3.3 trillion in the next 10 years [6]. Domestic Macro - In June, China's export volume increased slightly year - on - year to 5.8%, CPI increased by 0.1% year - on - year, and PPI decreased by 3.6% year - on - year. The improvement in exports to the US was the main boost. The Central Financial and Economic Commission's sixth meeting on July 1 proposed to regulate the low - price and disorderly competition of enterprises and promote the orderly withdrawal of backward production capacity. Commodities oriented to domestic demand and those that have been falling since the beginning of the year were greatly affected by the "anti - involution" policy [6]. 3.2 Viewpoint Highlights Macro - Domestically, there will be moderate reserve requirement ratio cuts and interest rate cuts, and the fiscal end will implement established policies in the short term. Overseas, the inflation expectation structure has flattened, the economic growth expectation has improved, and stagflation trading has cooled down [7]. Financial - The sentiment in the stock market has risen, and the bond market maintains a volatile trend. Stock index futures continue a moderately upward trend, stock index options remain cautious, and the sentiment in the bond market for treasury bond futures has weakened [7]. Precious Metals - Risk appetite has recovered, and precious metals are in short - term adjustment. Gold and silver continue to adjust [7]. Shipping - The sentiment has declined. Attention should be paid to the sustainability of the increase in the loading rate in June. For the container shipping route to Europe, attention should be paid to the game between peak - season expectations and the implementation of price increases [7]. Black Building Materials - The macro sentiment has temporarily cooled down, and black commodities have declined slightly. Steel products, iron ore, coke, coking coal, silicon iron, manganese silicon, glass, and soda ash all show a volatile trend [7]. Non - ferrous Metals and New Materials - There is a game between reciprocal tariff and domestic policy stimulus expectations. Non - ferrous metals stop falling and rebound. Copper, aluminum, zinc, lead, nickel, stainless steel, tin, and other metals show different volatile trends [7]. Energy and Chemicals - OPEC+ has increased production more than expected, and crude oil will drag down the energy and chemical sector to fluctuate weakly. Crude oil, LPG, asphalt, high - sulfur fuel oil, low - sulfur fuel oil, and other products show different trends such as volatile decline, decline, and volatility [9]. Agriculture - Agricultural varieties mostly show a volatile trend. Rubber, synthetic rubber, pulp, cotton, sugar, and other products all show a volatile trend [9].

Summary of Key Points from Conference Call Records Industry and Company Overview - The conference call discusses macroeconomic trends and asset performance outlook for 2025, focusing on the impact of U.S. trade policies, global economic conditions, and specific market performances in regions like Asia, Europe, and emerging markets [1][2][3][4][10][13][18]. Core Insights and Arguments - **U.S. Economic Outlook**: The U.S. economy is expected to stabilize in the second half of 2025, with average tariffs remaining in the 15%-20% range. The impact of Trump's trade policies is seen as limited, with slight fiscal spending increases anticipated [2][9]. - **Non-U.S. Equity Markets**: Non-U.S. equity markets performed well in the first half of 2025, particularly in Asia (Hang Seng Index) and Europe (German stock market). The weakening dollar and improved political stability contributed to this performance [3][4][10]. - **China's Economic Performance**: China's GDP growth exceeded expectations at 5.3% in the first half of 2025, driven by significant export contributions. However, challenges in external demand and the real estate market are anticipated in the latter half of the year [15][16][29]. - **European Economic Trends**: Europe showed better-than-expected performance in early 2025, with low fiscal deficits and supportive monetary policies. The trend of capital inflow into Europe is likely to continue [10][11]. - **Gold and Commodity Prices**: Gold is viewed positively as a mid-term investment, with prices fluctuating between $3,000 and $3,300. Copper prices are influenced by supply instability and increased demand, with short-term highs around $11,500 but a long-term lower bound of $8,000 [5][25][24]. Other Important but Potentially Overlooked Content - **Trade Negotiations**: Ongoing trade negotiations between the U.S. and Europe are complex, with potential concessions on both sides. The outcome may influence market sentiment positively if tariffs are reduced [11][28]. - **Emerging Markets**: Emerging markets, particularly in Latin America and Africa, are showing improvement due to political stability and decreasing inflation, which may benefit from trade shifts away from the U.S. [18]. - **Real Estate Market in China**: The Chinese real estate market is facing challenges, with new home sales declining, but there are signs of recovery in land sales and developer confidence [14][16]. - **Inflation and Monetary Policy**: Inflation remains a concern in the U.S., with expectations of continued impacts into 2026. The Fed's interest rate path is expected to be lower than previously anticipated [9][21]. This summary encapsulates the key points from the conference call, providing insights into the macroeconomic landscape and specific market performances across various regions and sectors.

Summary of Shandong Gold's Conference Call Industry Overview - The A-share gold listed companies are benefiting from interest rate cut expectations and rising gold prices, enhancing valuation attractiveness for Shandong Gold as a leading domestic gold resource company [2][4] Company Performance and Production - Shandong Gold's production is steadily increasing, with a target of 46 tons in 2024, representing a year-on-year growth of 10.5%, and a goal of no less than 50 tons in 2025, with an expected annual compound growth rate of 15% over the next few years, making it a leader in growth among A-share gold companies [2][5] - The company reported a net profit of approximately 10 billion yuan in Q1 2025, with Q2 expected to be between 15-20 billion yuan, raising the full-year net profit forecast to 70-80 billion yuan, corresponding to a PE ratio of about 15-16 times [2][6] Resource and Asset Management - Shandong Gold, as a state-owned enterprise, benefits from rich resources in Shandong Province, owning 12 mines with an annual output of over 1 ton, totaling more than 2,000 tons of resources, second only to Zijin Mining [2][7] - The acquisition of control over Yintai Gold has added high-quality assets to Shandong Gold, with a lower gold production cost compared to the overall level of Shandong Gold [2][14] Key Mining Projects - Major gold mines include Jiao Jia, San Shan Dao, Xin Cheng, and Ling Long, with San Shan Dao being the largest in terms of resources. The Xi Ling mine project is expected to start production around 2030, achieving an annual capacity of 13-14 tons [2][10][11] - The company has two significant overseas projects: Veladero in Argentina and Katino in Ghana, with Katino projected to produce 8.9 tons annually and expected to reach full production by the end of 2025, with a competitive cost of approximately 200 yuan per gram [3][12][13] Market Outlook and Strategic Goals - The gold price has remained stable around $3,300, with expectations of new highs due to anticipated interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve in late 2025 and 2026 [4] - Shandong Gold's strategic goal is to reach an annual production of 80 tons by the end of the 14th Five-Year Plan, although this may be challenging [7] Future Growth and Expansion Plans - The company plans to gradually increase its annual gold production from 46 tons in 2024 to 52 tons in 2025, 61 tons in 2026, and 70 tons in 2027, indicating a growth potential of 15% [15] - Additional smaller-scale expansion projects are underway, including the Daqiao mine in Gansu, which is expected to produce 5-6 tons annually, further enhancing overall growth potential [16] Conclusion - Shandong Gold is positioned for significant growth with a strong production outlook, strategic acquisitions, and favorable market conditions, making it an attractive investment opportunity in the gold sector [2][15]

Group 1: Dateline Resources - Dateline Resources Ltd (ASX:DTR) shares surged by 26.26% on Tuesday, with a remarkable increase of nearly 1300% over the past three months [4][2] - The company owns the Colosseum project in California, which is considered to have rare earth exploration potential similar to the nearby Mountain Pass mine [4] - The Colosseum gold mine received approval to restart mining operations in early April and was highlighted by former President Trump as the "second rare earth element mine in the U.S." [4] - Dateline Resources has appointed Simon Slesarewich as COO to lead the Colosseum project towards production and drive significant growth [4] Group 2: Anson Resources - Anson Resources Ltd (ASX:ASN) shares increased by 25.00% on Tuesday, with a current price of 0.09 AUD and a market capitalization of 125 million AUD [8][9] - The company sent two tons of lithium-rich brine samples from its Green River lithium project in Utah to South Korea for lithium extraction testing by strategic partner POSCO [8][9] - This testing is part of POSCO's due diligence process to determine investment in a demonstration plant for the Green River lithium project [9] Group 3: Bowen Coking Coal - Bowen Coking Coal Limited (ASX:BCB) has applied for a voluntary suspension of its securities to facilitate critical debt restructuring and financing negotiations [14] - The company received a payment demand of approximately 15 million AUD from BUMA Australia Pty Ltd and is in urgent discussions with various parties, including senior lenders and the Queensland Revenue Office [14] - BCB expects to resume trading before July 28, 2025, contingent upon reaching agreements on debt restructuring or alternative arrangements [14] Group 4: Ballard Mining - Ballard Mining Ltd (ASX:BM1) debuted on the Australian Stock Exchange with a 48.00% increase, closing at 0.37 AUD [15][18] - The company raised 30 million AUD through its IPO, issuing 120 million shares at an initial price of 0.25 AUD per share [18] - The Mt Ida project, which was transferred from Delta Lithium Limited, has a total resource of 10.3 million tons with a gold grade of 3.33 g/t, containing approximately 1.1 million ounces of gold [18] Group 5: Unico Silver - Unico Silver Ltd (ASX:USL) shares rose by 28.79% following significant drilling results at the La Negra deposit in Argentina [20] - The drilling encountered high-grade silver mineralization, with a notable intercept of 90 meters averaging 144 g/t silver equivalent, including segments of 718 g/t and 559 g/t [20] - Unico Silver aims to define over 150 million ounces of silver equivalent resources for potential open-pit mining [20] Group 6: BHP and Strategic Partnerships - BHP has signed memorandums of understanding with BYD's FinDreams Battery and CATL to enhance collaboration on decarbonization goals in mining operations [24] - The partnership with BYD focuses on electrifying mining fleets and developing fast-charging technologies [24] - Collaboration with CATL aims to explore opportunities in battery development, energy storage systems, and battery recycling in the mining sector [24]

昨日周二我们认为，特朗普挥舞关税大棒，避险买盘支撑黄金短线维持反弹趋势，市场焦点则开始集中在当晚的美国CPI数据，由于 关税政策导致物价上涨，市场预计6月CPI数据可能创造今年最大单月涨幅，这可能迫使美联储保持谨慎降息的态度，对美元有利并 打压金价，不过高通胀也可能加强避险对黄金形成支撑，因此操作上建议大家，下方支撑关注3340美元，失守这里可能加大短线回落 风险，上方压力关注3365和3374美元，向上突破关注3400美元。 从之后的走势看，欧盘盘中，黄金继续向上试探，涨至3365美元遇阻后，金价震荡回落，美盘开盘，黄金加速下跌，最低跌至3320美 元，企稳后金价保持3320到3331美元区间横盘震荡。周三开盘，黄金回落3321美元后，企稳展开反弹，目前暂时交投于3341美元附 近。总体看，市场对美国CPI数据上升的预期，以及公布值显示美国CPI数据上升，为黄金在美盘盘前以及开盘后下跌，创造了条 件，不过高通胀也加强了避险，这支撑了金价在日内的反弹。 Wolfinance星级分析师黄力晨认为，美国总统特朗普宣布将在8月1日起加征关税，并陆续公布了对欧盟、日本和韩国等国家和地区加 征的关税水平，这加强了市场对 ...

世界黄金协会说，菲律宾和厄瓜多尔等国多年来一直用本币在国内购买黄金。 CNBC援引业内人士的分析报道，央行在国内直采黄金有多重好处，一是价格更便宜，二是可以支持本 地采金业，三是可以在不动用外汇储备的前提下增加黄金储量。 卜晓明 世界黄金协会说，随着全球中央银行对黄金的胃口越来越大，更多央行开始用本币在本地金矿直接购买 黄金。 美国消费者新闻与商业频道（CNBC）15日援引世界黄金协会的最新调查结果报道，接受调查的36家央 行中，19家自称正在用本币直接从国内手工和小规模矿商购买黄金，另有四家称正在考虑效仿这一做 法。去年的调查结果显示，57家受调查央行中，大约14家自称从国内渠道采购黄金。 世界黄金协会尤其关注到非洲和拉丁美洲央行开始在国内直采黄金。加纳黄金管理局4月与多家本地矿 商达成协议，买入他们20%的黄金产量。加纳黄金管理局代表加纳央行管理黄金购买事宜。坦桑尼亚政 府矿业部门已强制要求所有黄金出口商，包括矿商和交易商，把其产量至少20%出售给坦桑尼亚央行。 更多央行直采本地黄金 通常情况下，央行通过以英国伦敦为主的国际现货市场购买黄金，这些黄金以美元、欧元或英镑计价。 英国黄金投资机构"金银保险库" ...

金十图示：2025年07月16日（周三）上海黄金交易所市场行情 | Au99.95 | | | | Au99.99 | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 开盘价 | 774.00 | 最高价 | 774.00 | 开盘价 | 774.50 | 最高价 | 774.50 | | 最低价 | 769.20 | 收盘价 | 770.09 | 最低价 | 770.00 | 收盘价 | 772.40 | | 涨跌(元) | 1 -7.24 | 涨跌幅 | 1 -0.93% | 涨跌(元) | J -3.62 | 涨跌幅 | $ -0.47% | | 加权平均价 | 770.35 | 成交量 | 28 | 加权平均价 | 771.69 | 成交量 | 5753.88 | | 成交金额 | 21569800 | 市场持仓 | | 成交金额 | 4440252613.2 | 市场特色 | | | 交收方向 | | 交收量 | | 交收方向 | | 交收量 | | | Au100g | | | | iAu100g | | | | | 开盘价 | ...