黄金概念股集体走强，紫金矿业、紫金黄金 国际 涨超1%。 1月20日，香港恒生指数开盘跌0.07%，恒生科技指数跌0.22%。 | 代码 | 名称 | 现价 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | HSI | 恒生指数 | 26544.90c -19.00 | -0.07% | | HSTECH | 恒生科技 | 5737.11c -12.87 -0.22% | | | HSBIO | 恒生生物科技 | 15864.19c -27.67 -0.17% | | | HSCEI | 恒生中国企业指数 | 9119.42c -15.03 -0.16% | | | HSCI | 恒生综合指数 | 4079.09c -3.77 -0.09% | | 科网股多数下跌，百度集团跌超2%，腾讯控股、小米集团跌超1%；阿里健康涨超2%。 | 资讯 | 成分 | 景点 | 相关基金 月度收 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 名称 | | 现价 | 涨跌 三 | | 百度集团-SW 9888.HK | | 144.200 | -2.17% | | 腾讯控股 0700. ...

报告共计：28页 黄金新周期：供需重构下的历史轨迹与未来定价逻辑深度解析 近期，华福证券发布的一份行业专题报告，对黄金这一特殊资产的历史脉络与未来前景进行了系统性的梳理与展望。在全球宏 观经济格局深刻演变、金融市场不确定性增加的背景下，黄金的角色与定价逻辑正在经历新一轮的重构。这份报告为我们理解 黄金市场的过去与未来，提供了清晰的视角。 今天分享的是：2026黄金行业专题报告：黄金供需重构下的机遇，历史复盘与未来定价逻辑展望 报告开篇即点明黄金的独特地位：它既不具备生息能力，又兼具商品、货币与金融三重属性。这种复杂性决定了其价格受到多 重因素的交织影响。从供应侧来看，全球黄金供应在过去十余年间保持低速增长，矿产金产量增速自2016年后明显放缓，再生 金则跟随金价波动，成为调节供应的重要变量。需求侧的变迁更为显著，传统的金饰制造需求占比下降，而投资需求与各国央 行的购金行为，正日益成为主导需求结构的关键力量。 回顾黄金超过两百年的历史长卷，其价格走势宛如一部全球政治经济变迁的编年史。从金本位制的稳固与崩溃，到布雷顿森林 体系确立与瓦解，黄金的货币属性演绎得淋漓尽致。上世纪七十年代的石油危机，催生了惊人的涨幅，凸 ...

日线图上，上周黄金冲高遇阻后，走势高位震荡调整，本周一金价再创历史新高，短期表现强势。黄金下方支撑，可以关 注周一黄金冲高遇阻后的回落低点4652美元，其次周一黄金跳空高开时的回落低点4618美元，这里也是当前5日均线位置； 黄金上方压力，主要关注周一创造的历史高点4690美元，若向上突破，关注日线布林带上轨位置4730美元附近。5日均线与 MACD指标金叉向上，KDJ指标金叉向上，RSI指标金叉小幅下拐，短期技术面显示多方占优，黄金存在进一步上涨的可 能。 黄金日内参考：美国夺取格陵兰岛，不给就加征关税，市场避险情绪快速升温，对黄金上涨形成重要支撑。操作上建议震 荡思路对待，下方支撑关注4652美元，其次4618美元，上方压力关注4690美元，其次4730美元。 Wolfinance星级分析师黄力晨认为，上周黄金再创历史新高后，我们认为美联储降息预期、地缘紧张局势与央行强劲买盘， 仍对黄金形成重要支撑，此后金价虽然遇阻调整，但回落十分有限，到了本周一，黄金继续上涨，再创历史新高，地缘风 险是推动金价冲高的重要原因。具体来看，美国图谋格陵兰岛的风波在近期持续升级，上周末美国总统特朗普公布了其夺 取格陵兰岛控制 ...

山东黄金 山东黄金 招金矿业 紫金黄金国际 中国黄金国际 分时图 日K线 周K线 月K线 47.11 1.17 2.55% 3.50% 2.33% 1.18% 0.00% 1.18% 2.33% 3.50% 44.33 44.87 45.40 45.94 46.48 47.01 47.55 09:30 10:30 11:30/13:00 14:00 15:00 0 51万 103万 154万 黄金股早盘活跃，截至发稿，紫金黄金国际(02259)涨3.86%，报172.4港元；招金矿业(01818)涨3.84%， 报37.9港元；中国黄金（600916）国际(02099)涨1.96%，报192.8港元；山东黄金（600547）(01787)涨 1.33%，报42.78港元。 消息面上，欧美关税争端升级刺激市场避险情绪升温，周一早盘，国际贵金属价格应声上涨，现货黄金 一度突破4690美元／盎司，刷新历史新高。特朗普周末在社交平台上表示，自2026年2月1日起，丹麦、 挪威、瑞典、法国、德国、英国、荷兰和芬兰出口至美国的所有商品加征10%的关税。他表示，这一关 税措施将持续实施，直至就"完全、彻底购买格陵兰岛"达成 ...

Market Overview - The A-share market saw a slight increase today, with the Shanghai Composite Index rising by 0.29% to 4114.00 points and the Shenzhen Component Index increasing by 0.09% to 14294.05 points. The total trading volume was 27,322 billion yuan, showing a slight decrease compared to the previous trading day. Overall, there were more gainers than losers, with the electric grid equipment and military industry sectors leading the gains, while previously high-performing internet and cultural media sectors experienced a pullback [1][11]. Military Industry - The military equipment sector performed strongly in the afternoon, driven by unique industry logic and recent event catalysts. The current military market trend is supported by the dual drivers of "commercial aerospace" and expectations from the "14th Five-Year Plan." The International Telecommunication Union (ITU) reported that China has planned to deploy over 200,000 satellites by December 2025, marking a significant acceleration in low-orbit satellite internet construction, which will create substantial demand for satellite manufacturing, rocket launches, and ground equipment [3][13]. - The military industry is expected to enter a new upcycle, with high expectations for the development and procurement of new-generation equipment as 2026 marks a key year in the "14th Five-Year Plan." The global military expenditure is entering a new upward phase, reinforcing the long-term investment logic in the defense industry [3][13]. Electric Grid Equipment - The electric grid ETF (561380) saw a significant increase of over 7% today, driven by the "AI power shortage" narrative and the release of the State Grid's "14th Five-Year Plan" investment plan. The electric grid equipment sector is entering a long-term upcycle due to the global energy transition and the explosion of AI computing power [5][15]. - The investment logic for the electric grid equipment sector has evolved from solely relying on domestic infrastructure to a dual benefit of "domestic grid upgrades + overseas equipment exports." The State Grid's fixed asset investment during the "14th Five-Year Plan" is expected to reach 4 trillion yuan, a 40% increase compared to the previous plan, ensuring high industry prosperity for the next five years [5][15]. - The high energy consumption characteristics of AI data centers are reshaping the global power supply and demand landscape. China is becoming a key player in global grid construction, with transformer exports reaching 57.86 billion yuan in the first 11 months of 2025, a year-on-year increase of 36.3% [6][16]. Gold Sector - The gold fund ETF (518800) rose by 1.59%, and the gold stock ETF (517400) increased by 2.73%. The ongoing geopolitical risks, including conflicts in the Middle East and trade tensions, are driving demand for gold as a safe-haven asset. The recent rise in gold prices may face short-term profit-taking risks, but the long-term support for gold prices remains strong due to the Fed's interest rate cut cycle and increasing global uncertainties [17][18]. Photovoltaic Industry - The photovoltaic 50 ETF (159864) increased by 2.03%. The Ministry of Finance and the State Taxation Administration announced the cancellation of the VAT export tax rebate for photovoltaic products starting April 1, 2026. This is expected to lead to a rapid increase in overseas export volumes in the short term, as companies rush to place orders before the cost increase takes effect [19][20]. - The "space photovoltaic" theme is gaining traction, with a significant increase in satellite launches and demand for GW-level space photovoltaic solutions. SpaceX has identified the P-type HJT battery technology route for large-scale economic production of space solar cells, marking a potential turning point for the industry [19][20].

证券日报网讯 1月19日，西部黄金发布公告称，公司控股股东新疆有色金属工业（集团）有限责任公司 拟于2026年2月11日至5月11日通过集中竞价减持公司不超过9109991股，不超过总股本1%，用于自身资 金周转。 （文章来源：证券日报） ...

炒股就看金麒麟分析师研报，权威，专业，及时，全面，助您挖掘潜力主题机会！ 来源：一观大势 核心观点：特朗普政府施行霸权主义，导致国际地缘政治局势进一步恶化，有利于黄金表现。我们建议 战术性超配A/H股、美股、黄金，低配美债与原油。 摘要 ▶多重因素支持中国权益表现，建议超配A/H股。经济工作会议临近，2026年是十五五开局之年，预计 广义赤字有望进一步扩张，经济政策有望更加积极。美联储12月如期降息，人民币稳定升值，为2026年 初中国宽松货币提供有利条件。改革提振中国市场风险偏好。中国权益相较于其他主要大类资产的风险 回报比较高。 ▶美联储新任主席人选不确定性上升而使得市场加剧对美国货币政策的博弈，建议低配美债。美国劳动 力市场持续降温，能源价格走弱与薪资增速偏缓有利于内生性通胀粘性下降，为美联储调整货币政策拓 宽空间。美国经济韧性较强，美联储货币政策指引方向或相对谨慎。美债利率中枢后续有望温和下行， 但美联储新任主席人选不确定性上升而使得市场加剧对美国货币政策的博弈，使得美债相对于风险资产 的风险回报比偏低。 ▶地缘政治剧变背景下黄金具备较强韧性与避险属性，建议超配黄金。全球地缘政治局势的不确定性上 升以 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" outlook on the metals and new materials industry, particularly highlighting the strong trend in nickel prices due to tightened supply expectations from Indonesia [1]. Core Insights - The report indicates that the overall performance of the metals sector has been strong, with the non-ferrous metals index outperforming the broader market indices [4]. - Key price movements show significant increases in precious metals, particularly gold and silver, driven by geopolitical factors and changes in monetary policy [3][20]. - The demand for lithium and cobalt remains robust, with prices for lithium compounds experiencing substantial increases [3][16]. Weekly Market Review - The Shanghai Composite Index fell by 0.45%, while the Shenzhen Component rose by 1.14%. The non-ferrous metals index increased by 3.03%, outperforming the CSI 300 by 3.60 percentage points [4]. - Precious metals saw a weekly increase of 6.86%, while aluminum decreased by 0.57%. Energy metals rose by 1.47%, and small metals increased by 4.31% [8]. Price Changes - Industrial metals prices showed varied changes: copper decreased by 1.50%, aluminum by 0.06%, while zinc increased by 1.76% and tin by 5.32% [12]. - Lithium prices surged, with lithium hydroxide and carbonate increasing by 12.14% and 12.32%, respectively [16]. Key Company Valuations - Companies such as Zijin Mining, Shandong Gold, and Zhongjin Gold are highlighted for their strong earnings growth and favorable price-to-earnings ratios [17]. - The report emphasizes the potential for valuation recovery in state-owned enterprises within the steel sector, such as Baosteel and Shagang [19]. Metal Supply and Demand Dynamics - Copper supply is under pressure, with domestic social inventory increasing to 321,000 tons, while demand from the wire and cable sector shows a slight recovery [33]. - The aluminum sector is experiencing a tightening supply-demand balance, with production capacity constraints expected to support long-term price increases [48]. Growth Cycle Investment Analysis - The report suggests that after interest rate cuts, the valuation center is likely to shift upward, recommending investments in stable supply-demand sectors within the new energy manufacturing industry [3].

Group 1 - The digital asset market experienced significant volatility as the first complete trading week of 2026 began, with Bitcoin dropping approximately 3% to around $92,500, erasing some recent gains and triggering about $680 million in liquidations, predominantly from long positions totaling $600 million [1][4][5] - The current upward momentum in Bitcoin is viewed as fragile, primarily driven by short squeezes rather than healthy inflows of spot capital, with on-chain data indicating a slowdown in selling by long-term holders [1][4][5] - The altcoin market, including assets like SOL and SUI, saw declines ranging from 6.7% to 10%, reinforcing the notion that leveraged-driven rallies are often unsustainable without substantial improvements in spot demand [5] Group 2 - A subtle shift in capital flows is occurring, with risk assets being sold off while safe-haven assets like gold are being favored, as international gold prices surged to $4,600 due to macroeconomic headlines such as tariff policies [2][5] - The current market consolidation is perceived as a continuation of a bear market rebound rather than a confirmation of a reversal, with Bitcoin remaining highly sensitive to liquidity until it can effectively break through the critical resistance level of $101,000 [2][5] - Investors are advised to monitor whether spot buying can stabilize around the support level of $90,000 to mitigate potential market volatility caused by high leverage [2][5]

来源：智通财经 周一A股市场出现了震荡中有所分化的态势。 新增量信息提振动量资金做多意愿 由于上周一系列的降温措施，不少市场参与者对于本周的走势持有相对谨慎的态势。不过，随着周末一 系列新的增量信息持续发酵，不仅赋予相信慢牛的市场参与者坚定了持股底气，还让一度谨慎的市场参 与者改变了态度，转而主动寻找新催化剂所带来的投资机会。 其中，以CPO为代表的AI硬件主线龙头股2025年四季度业绩低于预期，令创业板出现冲高受阻回落的态 势。但，得益于以黄金股为代表的资源主线、变压器股为代表的电力设备股的强势以及商业航天板块的 局部回暖走势，上证综指表现出超预期的稳健走势。 这些增量信息主要分为三个部分，一是对降温措施的重新解读，让更多的市场参与者明白了降温的目的 是压缩波动，以保护A股主要股指的运行中枢不至于迅速过度脱离均线，从而达到慢牛的目的，并强化 了那些坚守价值投资的市场参与者持股底气。二是陆续公布的2025年一系列经济运行数据显示出中国制 造业强劲增长，不仅成为中国经济韧性的力量源泉，也为A股上市公司业绩增长奠定了强劲的基石，意 味着A股在2024年"9.24行情"以来的扬升趋势是有着强劲基础的。三是产业层面的 ...