美国至7月10日30年期国债竞拍-得标利率 4.889%，前值4.844%。 ...

美国至7月10日4周国债竞拍-投标倍数 3.08，前值3.26。 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. Core Viewpoints The report provides a comprehensive analysis of the supply and trading of local government bonds, including an overview of the stock market, the rhythm of primary supply, and the characteristics of secondary trading. It details the scale, distribution, and trends of local government bond issuance and trading, as well as the participation of different investor groups. Summary by Directory 1. Stock Market Overview - As of July 4, 2025, the stock size of local government bonds reached 51.9 trillion yuan, indicating continuous market expansion [3][11]. - Among the outstanding local bonds, the proportion of new special bonds exceeded 43%, and the proportion of refinancing special bonds was 21% [3][11]. - In terms of the investment direction of special bonds, shantytown renovation, park and new - area construction, and rural revitalization were the major investment fields, with stock balances of 1.97 trillion, 1.57 trillion, and 1.12 trillion yuan respectively. The stock balance of toll roads exceeded 880 billion yuan, and that of water conservancy and ecological projects was over 200 billion yuan [3][11]. - As of July 4, 2025, Guangdong, Jiangsu, and Shandong ranked top three in terms of local bond stock size, with 3.42 trillion, 3.28 trillion, and 3.15 trillion yuan respectively. Other GDP - large provinces such as Sichuan, Zhejiang, Hunan, Henan, Hebei, Hubei, and Anhui also had local bond stocks of over 2 trillion yuan [3][11]. 2. Primary Supply Rhythm - Last week, local government bonds worth 175.91 million yuan were issued, including 29.54 million yuan of new special bonds and 0.7 million yuan of refinancing special bonds. "Ordinary/project income" and "repayment of local bonds" were the main investment fields of special bond funds [4][18]. - As of July 10, 2025, the issuance of special refinancing special bonds in July had reached 286.32 million yuan, accounting for 7.32% of the monthly local bond issuance scale [4][18]. - In terms of the issuance term structure, the issuance proportion of 7 - 10 - year local bonds was relatively high last week, reaching 49.75%. The average coupon rates of local bonds for major terms were basically the same as those two weeks ago. The spread between the issuance rate of 30 - year local bonds and the same - term treasury bonds narrowed to 17.84BP, while the spread of 20 - year local bonds over the same - term treasury bonds slightly widened to 14.9BP [4][28]. - From the perspective of new bond subscription, the upper limit of the bid rate last week significantly rebounded compared with two weeks ago, indicating a warming of primary bidding sentiment [4][28]. - Last week, two provinces had new issuances. Inner Mongolia issued 689 million yuan of local bonds this month, mainly with terms of 7 - 10 years; Ningxia issued 1.0703 billion yuan, with terms concentrated within 7 years. The average issuance rates were both below 2% [4][35]. 3. Secondary Trading Characteristics - As of July 4, 2025, the yield of 10 - year local bonds was 1.77%, and the spread over the same - term treasury bonds was 12.67BP, at the 18% quantile in the past 24 years. The price - difference quantiles of 15 - year and 30 - year varieties were 38% and 53% respectively [5][36]. - Last week, the turnover rates of local bonds for major terms increased slightly. The highest weekly turnover rate was for bonds over 10 years, with a reading of 1.14%. In terms of regions, Guangdong had the most trading volumes last week, with 50 transactions. The average trading term of local bonds last week was 17.3 years, and the average yield was 1.91% [5][41]. - In terms of the investor structure, commercial banks, insurance companies, securities proprietary departments, and broad - based funds were the most active institutions in local bond trading. Insurance companies remained the main undertakers of local bond supply, with a total net purchase of local bonds reaching 3.0119 billion yuan, and the purchase proportion of bonds over 20 - 30 years reaching 81.92% [5][47].

（转自：ETF炼金师） 三、贸易政策冲击有限，市场环境趋稳 在当前的海外债券市场中，美联储的货币政策动向依然是影响资产价格的关键因素。市场对美联储即将 进入宽松周期的预期逐渐增强，这一判断的基础主要在于美国最近的通胀数据受到关税政策的影响相对 有限。这为货币政策的转变创造了良好的条件，同时也为十年期国债及相关ETF提供了明确的投资机 会。 尽管特朗普政府的贸易政策面临不确定性，美国与越南之间达成的贸易协定显示出一定的妥协（最终加 征关税20%，远低于最初威胁的46%），其政策逻辑呈现出"高威胁、低落地"的特征。预计在未来的三 到四个季度内，美国与其他经济体的贸易谈判不会对全球金融市场造成显著冲击，从而为债券市场提供 相对稳定的外部环境。 一、关税影响有限，为美联储宽松铺平道路 近期美国政府对多个经济体，包括中国、欧盟、墨西哥和加拿大，实施了多轮关税措施。然而，根据数 据显示，关税对美国通胀的传导效果远低于市场预期。从进口价格指数来看，针对上述经济体的进口商 品价格在加征关税后并未出现显著上涨，表明关税对进口成本的推动力有限。 在核心消费者价格指数（CPI）和生产者价格指数（PPI）方面，核心CPI受到服务类通 ...

上交所推出的高成长产业债是什么？"市场需要一款既有收益，又能让投资机构买得放心的特殊产品，这就是我们目前提出的高成长产业债。"面 对市场的疑问，上交所债券业务中心有关负责人近日这样向记者解释。 高成长产业债的诞生源于市场投融双方长期存在隔离。在利率中枢明显下行的过程中，投资机构收益率同步下降，长期遵循的"重城投、轻产业"的投资逻辑无 法继续，甚至形成所谓"资产荒"的结构性欠配。与此同时，急需资金助力的产业类企业难以获得资金支持，融资渠道不够畅通，融资难、融资贵的情形仍然存 在。 债券市场投融资风格亟待变革。在这样的背景下，高成长产业债2024年应运而生。截至6月30日，上交所累计已有53只高成长产业债成功落地，多地区、多 类型企业相继完成创新性发行，金额合计373亿元；同时年内已有80余家非银机构参与该产品投资，高成长产业债已成为各类投资机构增厚收益的重要选择。 据了解，今年下半年，上交所将推动产品常态化发行，力争年底高成长产业债发行规模达到百单。 "在上一轮2018年前后债券市场信用收缩过程中，我们投资产业企业遭受一定损失，甚至至今部分债券仍未处置完毕；所以现在面对产业债，我们既关注相对 较高的收益，但也担 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report The report analyzes the current issuance progress of interest - rate bonds in 2025, predicts the issuance rhythm in the second half of the year, and evaluates its impact. It is expected that the central bank will use various tools to maintain the stability of the capital market, and the overall impact of the issuance of special refinancing bonds on the capital market is controllable [2][3][5]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Current Issuance Progress - **Treasury Bonds**: As of July 7, 2025, the cumulative net issuance of treasury bonds was 32955 billion yuan, with a progress of 53.5%, the fastest in the same period in the past five years. The issuance scale of major - term coupon - bearing treasury bonds increased year - on - year. The issuance progress of special treasury bonds exceeded half, with the first issuance peak in May [10][16]. - **Local Bonds**: The issuance rhythm of local bonds in the first half of the year was faster than that in 2024 but slower than that in 2022 - 2023. General bonds showed the characteristics of "accelerating from January to March, slow issuance from April to May, and accelerating again in the last week of June". The issuance of special bonds was relatively even, and the progress slightly exceeded that of the same period in 2024. The issuance of special refinancing bonds was concentrated in the first quarter and gradually ended in the second quarter. The issuance of special new special bonds exceeded half, with a large volume in the second quarter [23][32]. - **Policy - Financial Bonds**: Since 2020, the issuance scale of policy - financial bonds has basically remained in the range of 5 - 6 trillion yuan. As of June 30, 2025, the cumulative issuance of policy - financial bonds was 34968 billion yuan, with a cumulative issuance progress of 58%, generally higher than the same - period level in the past five years [36]. 3.2 Issuance Rhythm in the Second Half of the Year - **Treasury Bonds**: The net issuance scale in the second half of the year remains relatively high. The issuance of ordinary treasury bonds may be more evenly distributed monthly, with a slower rhythm but a high net issuance scale. For special treasury bonds, as of July 7, 2025, there were still 10 bonds to be issued, with a remaining quota of 6220 billion yuan, and the average issuance scale per bond was about 622 billion yuan. August - September may be the peak issuance months [40][44]. - **Local Bonds**: In the case of new local bonds, two scenarios are considered. In both scenarios, the third quarter may see a supply peak. If 2 trillion yuan of debt - resolution quota for next year is advanced to this year's fourth quarter, the supply pressure in October may increase significantly, and the pressure in November - December will decrease. The issuance of policy - financial bonds is expected to maintain a balanced rhythm, with the total issuance amount remaining in the range of 5 - 6 trillion yuan, and the rhythm tends to be front - loaded [3][4][48]. - **Policy - Financial Bonds**: The total issuance amount is expected to remain in the range of 5 - 6 trillion yuan since 2020. The rhythm tends to be front - loaded, estimated by referring to the average issuance in the same period from 2020 - 2024 [72]. 3.3 Impact Assessment It is expected that the central bank will use various tools to maintain the stability of the capital market. If there is a reserve requirement ratio cut, the third quarter may be a good observation period. If not, the central bank may increase the investment of outright reverse repurchases and MLF or restart treasury bond trading operations. Referring to the situation in the fourth quarter of 2024, if special refinancing bonds are issued in advance in the fourth quarter of this year, the overall impact is expected to be controllable [5][77].

一、国际金融中心赋能债券市场的发展现状 我国债券市场在规模、创新和基础设施建设方面成绩斐然，正逐步迈向更高水平的发展阶段。在市场规 模与国际影响力上，截至2024年底，中国债券市场托管余额达158.8万亿元，规模全球第二，品种齐 全。同时，开放进程加速，借助"债券通""QFII/RQFII"等渠道，境外机构持有中国债券规模升至4.1万亿 元，较2017年大幅增长，彰显国际投资者对我国充满着信心。 文/上海金融业联合会专家、上海首席经济学家金融发展中心离岸金融研究所所长 景建国 在全球金融格局重构的背景下，国际金融中心的发展水平已成为衡量一国金融国际竞争力的关键因素。 债券市场作为现代金融体系的核心支柱，不仅是政府与企业的核心融资渠道，更是国际资本流动的重要 通道。 上海通过创新债券机制极大激发了市场活力，绿色债券、SLB和熊猫债等品种频出，2024年中国绿色债 券发行规模约1.2万亿元、处于全球领先地位。上海自贸试验区先行先试，2023年助力中东主权基金发 行50亿元SLB，用于中国新能源项目，为债券市场的国际化树立了标杆。上海还通过完善基础设施提升 了债券市场的效率，上海清算所跨境清算服务缩短结算周期，20 ...

上交所推出的高成长产业债是什么？"市场需要一款既有收益，又能让投资机构买得放心的特殊产品， 这就是我们目前提出的高成长产业债。"面对市场的疑问，上交所债券业务中心有关负责人近日这样向 记者解释。 高成长产业债的诞生源于市场投融双方长期存在隔离。在利率中枢明显下行的过程中，投资机构收益率 同步下降，长期遵循的"重城投、轻产业"的投资逻辑无法继续，甚至形成所谓"资产荒"的结构性欠配。 与此同时，急需资金助力的产业类企业难以获得资金支持，融资渠道不够畅通，融资难、融资贵的情形 仍然存在。 债券市场投融风格亟待变革。在这样的背景下，高成长产业债2024年应运而生。截至6月30日，上交所 累计已有53只高成长产业债成功落地，多地区、多类型企业相继完成创新性发行，金额合计373亿元； 同时年内已有80余家非银机构参与该产品投资，高成长产业债已成为各类投资机构增厚收益的重要选 择。 具体来看，上交所一方面推动中介机构优化产业企业立项标准，鼓励证券公司积极承销产业企业债券； 另一方面设计了多层次投融对接支持机制，帮助投资机构增加对企业的了解，挖掘产业企业的投资价 值，努力为产业企业营造更友好的融资环境。 有效打消投资机构顾虑 ...

本报讯(记者毛艺融)数据显示，截至6月30日，上交所累计已有53只高成长产业债成功落地。目前多家 企业相继完成高成长产业债的发行，发行规模合计373亿元，在债券市场中小发行人、民营企业间迅速 引发热议。同时，年内已有80余家非银机构参与该产品投资，高成长产业债已成为各类投资机构增厚收 益的重要选择。 高成长产业债的蓬勃发展吸引了市场参与者的关注。据悉，上交所建立了全链条的高成长产业债服务团 队，对有良好的偿债意愿和信用记录，无财务造假的实体企业，创设"交易所搭台，市场主体唱戏"的服 务模式。一方面，上交所推动中介机构优化产业企业立项标准，鼓励证券公司积极承销产业企业债券； 另一方面，上交所建立了上证路演、投融交流会、组织调研等多层次投融对接支持机制，帮助投资机构 增进对企业的认识，挖掘产业企业的投资价值，努力为企业营造更友好的融资环境。 上交所债券部相关负责人介绍，在信息披露方面，高成长产业债要求发行人以偿债能力为核心，提高信 息披露的及时性、针对性，鼓励发行人通过高频次披露核心财务数据指标、强化行业特定信息披露等， 使投资者能够及时掌握企业经营动态与偿债能力。 在投资者保护方面，前述负责人介绍，企业在发行高 ...

7月10日，山东证监局通报了多起债券市场违规事件。其中包括对威海蓝创建设投资有限公司、潍坊滨 城建设集团有限公司、山东如意科技集团有限公司及其相关人员采取出具警示函措施。 从通报内容来看，部分公司未按照规定时间披露2024年年度报告，还有的涉及非市场化发行的情形。 今年以来，各地监管部门对辖内债市监管力度持续加码，福建证监局、浙江证监局等多地监管部门对辖 内债券发行人的违规行为进行了通报，涉及未及时披露多笔债务逾期、信披违规、有关责任人履职违规 等诸多问题。 又有债券发行人违规，部分涉及非市场化发行 7月10日，山东证监局通报了多起债券市场违规事件。其中，包括对威海蓝创建设投资有限公司、潍坊 滨城建设集团有限公司、山东如意科技集团有限公司及其相关人员采取出具警示函措施。 通报内容显示，潍坊滨城建设集团有限公司作为企业债券发行人，未在规定期限内披露2024年年度报 告。对时任董事长兼信息披露事务负责人的周强，以及时任总经理的王文智、时任财务负责人的赵进 富，山东证监局依规采取出具警示函的行政监管措施，并记入证券期货市场诚信档案数据库。 类似情况还有山东如意科技集团有限公司，该公司作为债券发行人没有在规定期限内披 ...