Investment Strategy Overview - The report emphasizes two main investment themes for the chemical industry: anti-involution policies and domestic substitution, which are expected to drive recovery and growth in the sector [4][5][6] Anti-Involution and Cycle Recovery - The report suggests that the chemical industry is at a turning point, with anti-involution measures leading to a recovery in the cycle. Key areas include the peak of new capacity in organic silicon, the end of PTA capacity expansion, and a rebound in prices for certain chemicals due to supply chain disruptions [4][5] - The China Chemical Product Price Index (CCPI) has decreased significantly, dropping to 3865 points by November 30, 2025, down 16.37% from early 2024 and 10.71% from the beginning of 2025 [4][20] Domestic Substitution as a Growth Driver - Domestic substitution is highlighted as a key growth driver, with significant support from national policies for bio-based materials and advancements in technology leading to a more robust domestic supply chain [4][6] - The report identifies several companies positioned to benefit from these trends, including KaiSai Bio and RuiFeng New Materials, which are making strides in bio-based materials and lubricant additives, respectively [5][6] Market Dynamics and Price Recovery - The report notes that while the chemical market is experiencing a downturn, certain segments are expected to see price recovery due to improved supply-demand dynamics and reduced capacity expansion [4][22] - Specific chemical products have shown varied price movements, with some experiencing significant declines while others are stabilizing or recovering [22] Manufacturing Sector Recovery - The manufacturing sector is showing signs of recovery, which is anticipated to support the chemical industry. The report mentions that the real estate market is stabilizing, and automotive production has increased, indicating a potential uptick in demand for chemical products [25][33] Capital Expenditure Trends - Capital expenditure growth in the chemical industry is slowing, with a notable decline in new projects. The report indicates that the total construction in progress for the chemical sector was 327.57 billion yuan in Q3 2025, down 17.64% year-on-year [34][39] Inventory and Consumption Trends - High inventory levels in the chemical sector are being addressed as consumer demand begins to recover. The report suggests that the inventory-to-revenue ratio for the basic chemical industry was 0.62 in Q3 2025, indicating a slight increase from the previous year [41][42] Profitability and Financial Performance - The report highlights a recovery in profitability for the chemical industry, with gross margins and return on equity (ROE) showing improvement in Q3 2025 compared to previous periods [56][60] - Specific sub-sectors, such as agrochemicals and fluorochemicals, have demonstrated significant profit growth, with some exceeding 100% year-on-year increases [55][56]

制冷剂配额约束下供给刚性，看好制冷剂景气周期 2026年三代制冷剂生产配额总量为797844吨，内用配额394082吨，相较于2025年，2026年三代制冷剂生 产配额总量增加5962吨，内用配额增加4502吨。2026年生产配额增量主要是R32增加1171吨，R134a增 加3242吨，R245fa增加2918吨；配额减少的有R143a减少1255吨、R227ea减少517吨以及R152a减少63 吨。 三代制冷剂价格延续涨势 根据百川盈孚，截止2025年12月12日，主流三代制冷剂及混配品种R134a/R125/R32/R410价格为 57500/45500/62500/54000元/吨，周涨幅+1.77%/+1.11%/0.00%/+0.93%，月涨幅 +6.48%/+1.11%/+0.00%/+0.93%，季涨幅+11.65%/+1.11%/+2.46%/+6.93%，年涨幅 +43.75%/+19.74%/+56.25%/+42.11%。 制冷需求延续增长，根据国家统计局，2025年1-10月国内空调产量累计值23034万台，同比+3.00%，出 口延续高基数，出口数量5243万台，同比-1.10% ...

周期论剑｜解读重要会议对周期的方向指引 20251214 很多投资者对跨周期调控存在误解，认为政策不够积极。然而，从去年（2024 年）的经济工作会议可以看到，当时由于尾部风险暴露，需要超常规政策，例 如 10 万亿化债举措。而今年（2025 年）则不同，在尾部风险得到基本管控后， 需要进一步巩固和拓展经济稳中向好的势头。因此，本次会议明确提出要巩固 和拓展经济稳中向好的势头，并强调财政政策更加积极，同时提出内需主导和 推动投资止跌回稳等新概念。 对于明年的财政政策有哪些具体预期？ 摘要 中国市场有望迎来转型牛市，预计春节前达到新高，市场流动性将因再 配置和机构资金回流而改善，中证 800 代表的大盘风格预计在春节前占 优。 预计明年财政赤字率维持在 4%左右，总规模约 5.9 万亿人民币，地方 政府专项债券预计 4.6-4.8 万亿，超长期特别国债增加至 1.5-1.6 万亿， 以旧换新计划扩围至 3,500 亿，刺激耐用消费品消费。 预计明年初中国央行可能降息，以应对经济活动转淡和房地产销售下滑， 推动经济回稳和价格合理回升。 年初具有较强景气度并可能推动估值切换的行业包括出口、制造业全球 扩张和人工智能 ...

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive (Maintain)" [5] Core Viewpoints - The production quota for third-generation refrigerants in 2026 is expected to remain relatively stable compared to 2025, with a total production quota of 797,844 tons, an increase of 5,962 tons from 2025. The internal use quota will increase by 4,502 tons [8] - The prices of third-generation refrigerants continue to rise, with significant annual increases observed, such as R134a increasing by 43.75% year-on-year [8] - The supply of refrigerants is expected to remain rigid due to quota constraints, while demand continues to grow, driven by increasing production of air conditioning units and automobiles [8] Summary by Sections Production Quota - The total production quota for third-generation refrigerants in 2026 is 797,844 tons, with internal use quota at 394,082 tons. The main increases are in R134a (3,242 tons) and R245fa (2,918 tons), while R143a, R227ea, and R152a see reductions [8] Price Trends - As of December 12, 2025, the prices for major third-generation refrigerants are as follows: R134a at 57,500 CNY/ton, R125 at 45,500 CNY/ton, R32 at 62,500 CNY/ton, and R410 at 54,000 CNY/ton, with notable monthly and annual growth rates [8] Demand and Supply Dynamics - Domestic air conditioning production from January to October 2025 reached 23,034 million units, a year-on-year increase of 3.00%. The automotive sector also saw a production increase of 11.00% during the same period, indicating a robust demand for refrigerants [8]

Industry Overview - The chemical sector's overall performance ranked 16th this week (2025/12/01-2025/12/05) with a fluctuation of 0.13%, underperforming compared to the Shanghai Composite Index and the ChiNext Index, which had fluctuations of 0.37% and 1.86% respectively [1] - The chemical industry is expected to continue its differentiated trend in 2025, with a focus on synthetic biology, pesticides, chromatography media, sweeteners, vitamins, light hydrocarbon chemicals, COC polymers, and MDI [1] Synthetic Biology - The arrival of a pivotal moment in synthetic biology is anticipated, driven by the adjustment of energy structures, which may disrupt fossil-based materials and favor low-energy products [1] - Traditional chemical companies are expected to compete based on energy consumption and carbon tax costs, with successful firms leveraging green energy alternatives and integrated advantages to reduce costs [1] - Companies to watch in the synthetic biology field include Kasei Bio and Huaheng Bio [1] Refrigerants - The quota policy for third-generation refrigerants is set to be implemented, leading to a high prosperity cycle for this segment [2] - The supply of refrigerants is expected to decrease due to the "quota + continuous reduction" phase starting in 2024, while demand remains stable due to market expansions in heat pumps and cold chains [2] - Companies benefiting from this trend include Juhua Co., Sanmei Co., Haohua Technology, and Yonghe Co. [2] Electronic Specialty Gases - Electronic specialty gases are critical for the electronics industry, characterized by high technical barriers and added value [3] - The domestic market faces a mismatch between rapid upgrades in wafer manufacturing and insufficient high-end electronic specialty gas capacity, presenting opportunities for domestic replacements [3] - Key players in this sector include Jinhong Gas, Huate Gas, and China Shipbuilding Gas [3] Light Hydrocarbon Chemicals - The trend towards light raw materials in the global olefin industry is notable, with a shift from heavy naphtha to lighter low-carbon alkanes like ethane and propane [4] - Light hydrocarbon chemicals are favored for their low carbon emissions, low energy consumption, and low water usage, aligning with global carbon neutrality goals [4] - Companies to focus on in this area include Satellite Chemical [4] COC Polymers - The industrialization of COC/COP (cyclic olefin copolymer) is accelerating in China, driven by domestic companies overcoming previous R&D challenges [5] - The demand for COC/COP is increasing in various applications, including mobile camera lenses and medical packaging, with a strong push for domestic alternatives due to supply chain security concerns [5] - Acelor is a notable company in the COC polymer production segment [5] Potash Fertilizers - Potash fertilizer prices are expected to rebound as the industry enters a destocking cycle, with supply constraints from major producers like Canpotex and Nutrien [6] - The demand for potash is anticipated to rise due to increased planting intentions among farmers, driven by higher grain prices [6] - Key companies in the potash sector include Yara International, Salt Lake Potash, Zangge Mining, and Dongfang Iron Tower [6] MDI Market - The MDI market is characterized by oligopoly, with demand steadily increasing due to the expansion of polyurethane applications [7] - The market is currently experiencing price stabilization at low levels, but profitability remains strong, with future supply dynamics expected to improve [7] - Wanhu Chemical is a key player to watch in the polyurethane sector [7] Chemical Price Tracking - The top five price increases this week included liquid chlorine (21.43%), butadiene (10.29%), and nitric acid (8.33%) [8] - The top five price decreases included trichloroethylene (-10.64%) and phenol (-6.17%) [8] Supply Side Tracking - This week, 166 chemical companies reported changes in production capacity, with five new repairs and five restarts [9]

Industry Overview - The chemical sector's overall performance ranked 13th this week (2025/11/24-2025/11/28) with a change of 2.98%, positioned in the upper-middle of the market. The Shanghai Composite Index rose by 1.40%, while the ChiNext Index increased by 4.54%. The Shenwan Chemical sector outperformed the Shanghai Composite by 1.58 percentage points but underperformed the ChiNext by 1.56 percentage points [1]. Key Insights - The chemical industry is expected to continue its trend of divergence in 2025, with recommendations to focus on synthetic biology, pesticides, chromatography media, sweeteners, vitamins, light hydrocarbon chemicals, COC polymers, and MDI [1]. Synthetic Biology - A pivotal moment for synthetic biology is anticipated, driven by energy structure adjustments. Traditional chemical companies will face competition based on energy consumption and carbon tax costs. Companies that adopt green energy alternatives and leverage integrated and scaled advantages are likely to reduce energy costs and expand into larger overseas markets. The demand for bio-based materials is expected to surge, leading to potential profitability and valuation increases. Key companies to watch include Kasei Bio and Huaheng Bio [1]. Refrigerants - The implementation of quota policies is expected to usher in a high-growth cycle for third-generation refrigerants. Starting in 2024, the supply of these refrigerants will enter a "quota + continuous reduction" phase, while second-generation refrigerants will be phased out more rapidly. The demand for refrigerants is projected to grow steadily due to the development of heat pumps, cold chain markets, and the expansion of the air conditioning market in Southeast Asia. Companies with high quota shares, such as Juhua Co., Sanmei Co., Haohua Technology, and Yonghe Co., are expected to benefit significantly [2]. Electronic Specialty Gases - Electronic specialty gases are critical to the electronics industry and represent a core component of domestic industrialization. The domestic market is experiencing rapid upgrades in wafer manufacturing, but there is a mismatch with the fragmented and insufficient capacity of high-end electronic specialty gases. Companies that establish high-end capacity and possess substantial technical reserves are likely to seize opportunities for growth. Demand is driven by integrated circuits, displays, and photovoltaics. Key players include Jinhong Gas, Huate Gas, and China Shipbuilding Gas [3]. Light Hydrocarbon Chemicals - The trend towards light raw materials in the global olefin industry has been significant over the past decade, with a shift from heavy naphtha to lighter low-carbon alkanes like ethane and propane. This transition is characterized by shorter processes, higher yields, and lower costs. Light hydrocarbon chemicals also align with global low-carbon and energy-saving initiatives. Companies in this sector, such as Satellite Chemical, are expected to see their values reassessed [4]. COC Polymers - The industrialization of COC/COP (cyclic olefin copolymer) is accelerating in China, driven by domestic companies achieving breakthroughs after years of R&D. The shift of downstream industries, such as consumer electronics and new energy vehicles, to domestic sources is increasing the demand for these materials. The market is currently constrained by high prices, but domestic companies are expected to break through and expand market space. Key company to watch is Acolyte [5]. Potash Fertilizers - Potash fertilizer prices are expected to rebound as the industry enters a destocking cycle. Canpotex has withdrawn new quotes, and Nutrien has announced production cuts, leading to a short-term decline in supply. The termination of the Black Sea Grain Export Agreement has increased the prices of wheat and corn, boosting the demand for potash fertilizers. Companies like Yara International, Salt Lake Potash, and Zangge Mining are positioned to benefit from this trend [6]. MDI Market - The MDI market is characterized by oligopoly, with demand steadily improving due to the expansion of polyurethane applications. The global MDI production capacity is concentrated among five major chemical giants, which account for 90.85% of total capacity. Despite current price fluctuations, MDI remains a high-margin product. Companies like Wanhua Chemical are expected to benefit from a favorable supply structure as demand recovers [7]. Price Tracking - The top five price increases this week included methanol (East China) at 6.27%, NYMEX natural gas (futures) at 5.90%, and caprolactam (East China CPL) at 5.49%. The top five price decreases included liquid chlorine (East China) at -7.82% and propylene oxide (East China) at -5.85% [8]. Supply Side Tracking - This week, 168 chemical enterprises had their production capacities affected, with 9 new repairs and 3 restarts reported [9].

2025 年 12 月 03 日 晨会纪要 研究所： 证券分析师： 余春生 S0350513090001 yucs@ghzq.com.cn [Table_Title] 晨会纪要 ——2025 年第 205 期 观点精粹: 最新报告摘要 丘钛科技（1478.HK）公司深度报告：摄像头与指纹识别模组结构优化，可持续发展能力向好--丘钛科技/光 学光电子(01478/212703) 公司 PPT 报告（港股美股） 三代制冷剂仍是未来长期主流，供需缺口有望进一步扩大--行业动态研究 舜宇光学科技(2382.HK)深度报告：坚定深化高端产品布局与价值挖掘，盈利能力结构性改善--舜宇光学科技 /光学光电子(02382/212703) 公司 PPT 报告（港股美股） 证券研究报告 1、最新报告摘要 1.1、丘钛科技（1478.HK）公司深度报告：摄像头与指纹识别模组结构优化， 可持续发展能力向好--丘钛科技/光学光电子(01478/212703) 公司 PPT 报告 （港股美股） 分析师：陈重伊 S0350525010002 分析师：陈梦竹 S0350521090003 本报告重点解决了以下几个核心问题：丘钛科技如何进行产 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the refrigerant industry, indicating a positive outlook based on supply-demand dynamics and industry performance [2][12]. Core Insights - The third-generation refrigerants are expected to remain the long-term mainstream due to their efficiency and cost advantages over fourth-generation refrigerants, which face higher production costs and lower efficiency [9][10]. - The supply-demand gap for refrigerants is anticipated to widen further, driven by increasing demand from the air conditioning and automotive sectors, alongside supply constraints from production quotas [10][11]. Summary by Sections Industry Performance - The refrigerant industry has shown a significant price increase for major refrigerants due to quota restrictions, with R32 priced at 63,000 CNY/ton, R134a at 55,500 CNY/ton, and R22 at 16,000 CNY/ton as of December 1, 2025 [4][10]. Production Quotas - High utilization rates for R32 and R134a production quotas were reported, with R32 at 96.71% and R134a at 94.17% for the first ten months of 2025 [5][6]. - The 2026 production quotas for HFCs remain unchanged, but companies with flexible quota allocations are expected to benefit from the adjustments [6][7]. Demand Growth - The domestic air conditioning market has seen a production increase of 2.46% year-on-year, with a total of approximately 230 million units produced from January to October 2025 [10]. - The automotive sector is also recovering, with a 10.80% increase in production during the same period, further driving demand for refrigerants [11]. Future Projections - The internal demand gap for R32 and R134a is projected to increase from -1.24 million tons in 2025 to -2.39 million tons by 2027, indicating a tightening supply situation [11][15]. - The report emphasizes the importance of monitoring individual companies such as Juhua Co., Sanmei Chemical, and others for potential investment opportunities [12][13].

Summary of Conference Call on Chemical Industry Investment Opportunities Industry Overview - The chemical industry is currently experiencing historically low gross margins per ton due to rapid domestic capacity expansion leading to oversupply, while demand has not significantly decreased, indicating potential improvement in supply-demand dynamics in the future [1][2][3] - Companies are proactively reducing capital expenditures, with expectations of continued negative growth in capital expenditures for chemical listed companies from 2024 to 2026 [1][2] Supply and Demand Dynamics - Both domestic and international supply sides are showing signs of contraction. Domestically, companies are reducing capital expenditures due to poor profitability, while internationally, the Russia-Ukraine conflict has increased energy costs in Europe and led to operational difficulties for global chemical leaders, accelerating the shutdown of production lines [1][3] - The demand side is expected to recover, with the U.S. entering a rate-cutting cycle, followed by China and the UK, which may lead to a resonance in demand between China and the U.S. [1][3] Emerging Opportunities - New industries such as renewable energy, energy storage, photovoltaics, and AI are expected to drive incremental demand for chemical products, with the industry projected to enter an upward cycle from 2026 to 2027 [1][3] - Recommended sectors include: - **Bottom Elastic Products**: Organic silicon and industrial silicon benefiting from high energy consumption characteristics and energy-saving trends (e.g., Hengsheng Silicon, Xin'an Chemical, Xingfa Group) [1][4] - **Soda Ash**: Benefiting from anti-dumping policies despite expansion (e.g., Boyuan Chemical) [1][4] - **PTA and Polyester Filament**: Stable growth in end-user demand (e.g., Tongkun, Xinfengming) [1][4] Investment Recommendations - Focus on quality stocks with bottom valuations and potential volume growth, such as Wanhua Chemical, Hualu Hengsheng, Longbai Group, and Huahong New Materials [2][4][7] - Growth companies in tires and new materials are also worth attention, such as Sailun Tire, Xin Nuobang, and Shengquan Group, which benefit from AI, new energy development, and domestic substitution [5] Strategic Outlook for 2026 - The strategy for the petrochemical industry in 2026 will adopt a top-down framework due to prolonged low margins (10%-20%) and the completion of capital expenditures in 2023 and 2024 [6][7] - Anticipation of three rate cuts by the Federal Reserve in 2026, reducing rates to around 3%, is expected to support a soft landing for the global economy [6] Key Focus Areas in Petrochemical Sector - The PTA sector is highlighted as a key area of focus, with optimism regarding market corrections and support from national policies [7][8] - Attention should also be given to cyclical sectors, including private refining companies like Satellite Chemical, Baofeng Energy, and Hengli Petrochemical, which are expected to experience reversals [8] Additional Investment Opportunities - Other notable investment opportunities include the POE market and Xinjiang coal chemical stocks, which are expected to perform well due to stable operations and significant profit margin potential [11] - Companies like Aerospace Engineering and 3D Chemical are highlighted for their safety margins and potential valuation recovery due to supportive policies [11]

Core Viewpoint - The company is actively responding to market changes brought by the third-generation refrigerant quota policy by implementing multiple strategies to enhance its competitive edge and ensure sustainable development [1] Group 1: Strategic Initiatives - The company is leveraging its entire industry chain to maintain cost advantages [1] - It is closely monitoring the market to dynamically optimize its quota usage plans [1] - The company is accelerating the construction of production capacity for fourth-generation refrigerants [1] Group 2: Project Development - The company's Baotou Yonghe New Energy Materials Industrial Park project for fourth-generation refrigerants is progressing as planned, with a capacity of 20,000 tons/year for HFO-1234yf and 23,000 tons/year for HFO-1234ze, co-producing HCFO-1233zd [1] - This project is expected to significantly enhance the company's core competitiveness and provide strong support for long-term sustainable development [1]