Variety Views - On July 22, A-share's three major indexes continued to rise, hitting new highs for the year. The Shanghai Composite Index rose 0.62% to 3,581.86, the Shenzhen Component Index rose 0.84% to 11,099.83, and the ChiNext Index rose 0.61% to 2,310.86. The trading volume of the two markets reached 1.893 trillion yuan, an increase of 193.1 billion yuan from the previous day. The CSI 300 Index was strong, closing at 4,118.96, up 33.35 [1] - On July 22, the weighted coke index remained strong, closing at 1,711.6, up 128.3. The weighted coking coal index also maintained its strength, closing at 1,084.9 yuan, up 94.5 [1][2] Factors Affecting Futures Prices Coke and Coking Coal - The spot price of coke at ports remained stable, with the price of quasi-primary metallurgical coke at Rizhao Port at 1,270 yuan/ton. After the first price increase by coke enterprises was implemented, they quickly initiated a second one. Coke enterprises are currently at the break-even point in production. The continuous rebound of coking coal prices has put pressure on coking enterprises, so they raised the price of coke, and steel mills have a relatively high willingness to accept it. The profitability rate of steel mills is maintained at around 60%, the profit of blast furnace rebar is about 200 yuan/ton, and the reduction of crude steel production has led to a rebound in steel prices, giving some room for the rebound of raw material prices [3] - The price of prime coking coal in Linfen, Shanxi (A10, S0.45, G70) was raised by 70 yuan to the ex-factory price of 1,210 yuan/ton. The Mongolian coal market is running strongly. The price of Mongolian No. 5 raw coal at Ganqimao Port increased by 54 to 850 yuan/ton, and the price of Mongolian No. 3 cleaned coal increased by 35 to 950 yuan/ton. As of July 18, the inventory of upstream coal mines has dropped to 3.3907 million tons, returning to a relatively reasonable level. Previously shut-down coal mines have gradually resumed production, especially after the price increase, the enthusiasm of coal mines for production is high [3] Zhengzhou Sugar - Early signs indicate that the global sugar market may face a supply surplus in the 2025/26 season due to strong monsoons increasing production in India and Thailand. Affected by this and the failure of the futures price to break through the key technical level of 17 cents, long positions were liquidated, causing the US sugar price to fall sharply on Monday. Affected by the decline of US sugar and the reduction of spot quotes, long positions were liquidated, causing the Zhengzhou sugar 2509 contract to decline on Tuesday. Due to short-selling pressure, the contract continued to decline slightly at night. In June 2025, China imported 420,000 tons of sugar, a month-on-month increase of about 70,000 tons and a year-on-year increase of 1,434.9%. From January to June 2025, China's cumulative sugar imports were 1.04 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 19.7%. In June 2025, China imported a total of 115,500 tons of syrup and premixed powder, a year-on-year decrease of 103,500 tons. From January to June 2025, the total imports were 459,100 tons, a year-on-year decrease of 492,400 tons [3] Rubber - Heavy rainfall in the Thai rubber-producing area has raised concerns about supply, leading to continuous increases in Southeast Asian spot prices. Affected by this, short positions were liquidated, pushing up the Shanghai rubber futures price on Tuesday. Due to the large short-term increase, the price adjusted at night. In June 2025, China's rubber tire production was 102.749 million pieces, a year-on-year decrease of 1.1%. From January to June, the production increased by 2% year-on-year to 591.668 million pieces. In the first half of 2025, China's rubber tire exports reached 4.71 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 4.5% [4][6] Palm Oil - On July 22, palm oil maintained a high-level wide-range oscillation, with the overall average price gradually increasing. The K-line closed as a positive line with a long upper shadow. The highest price of the day was 9,012, the lowest was 8,868, and it closed at 8,926, up 0.18% from the previous day. According to SPPOMA data, from July 1 to 20, 2025, the palm oil production in Malaysia increased by 6.19% compared with the same period last month. United Plantations said that in the second quarter, the production of palm oil and palm kernels increased by 13.8% and 20.5% year-on-year respectively; the average price of palm oil increased by 5.6% to 4,361 Malaysian ringgit per ton [6] Shanghai Copper - The anti-involution trading in China continued, with strong long sentiment boosting the copper price. Technically, the moving averages are in a bullish arrangement, and the MACD and KDJ indicators all give bullish signals, providing support for price increases. On the supply side, the strike at a copper mine in Peru has raised concerns about supply, which also supports the copper price. However, attention should be paid to the increase in bonded warehouse inventories and the uncertainty of downstream demand. If the price fails to break through the resistance level of 81,200 yuan/ton, it may face a correction risk [7] Iron Ore - On July 22, the main contract of iron ore 2509 oscillated and rose, with a gain of 2.49%, closing at 823 yuan. The shipments of Australian and Brazilian iron ore decreased slightly this period, and the arrivals dropped significantly. The pig iron production stopped falling and rebounded to a high level again. Currently, the market sentiment is boosted by the anti-involution and the policy expectations of important meetings, and the short-term trend of iron ore prices will continue to oscillate slightly stronger [7] Asphalt - On July 22, the main contract of asphalt 2509 oscillated and fell, with a decline of 1.42%, closing at 3,609 yuan. Last week, the operating rate of asphalt plants decreased month-on-month. The low social inventory has led to an increase in the sales volume of refineries, and downstream demand has improved. Overall, it fluctuates narrowly following the cost of crude oil [7] Cotton - The main contract of Zhengzhou cotton closed at 14,235 yuan/ton on Tuesday night. On July 23, the minimum basis price of Xinjiang designated delivery (supervision) warehouses in the National Cotton Trading Market was 430 yuan/ton, and the cotton inventory decreased by 65 lots compared with the previous day. The growth period of cotton in Xinjiang this year is about 5 - 7 days earlier than last year [8] Logs - On July 22, the 2509 contract of logs opened at 843.5, with a minimum of 835, a maximum of 846.5, and closed at 838, with a daily reduction of 2,264 lots. After reaching a four-month high of 856.5, the market declined, with increased trading volume and significant position reduction, increasing market pressure. Attention should be paid to the support level of 800 - 820 and the resistance level of 850. The spot price of 3.9-meter medium A radiata pine logs in Shandong was 740 yuan/cubic meter, unchanged from the previous day, and the price of 4-meter medium A radiata pine logs in Jiangsu was 750 yuan/cubic meter, also unchanged. There is no major contradiction in the supply-demand relationship, and spot trading is weak. Attention should be paid to the spot price, import data, and the support of macro expectations for the spot market [8] Steel - On July 22, rb2510 closed at 3,307 yuan/ton, and hc2510 closed at 3,477 yuan/ton. Currently, the favorable factors in the industrial aspect of "anti-involution" and "promoting the orderly withdrawal of backward production capacity" are being traded again in the market. The trading logic of the black chain has switched to the dual-drive of industrial benefits and valuation repair, coupled with the support of real estate policies. The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology has issued a work plan for stabilizing the growth of the steel industry. Attention should be paid to the matching degree between the marginal change of pig iron production and the implementation rhythm of policies [9] Alumina - On July 22, ao2509 closed at 3,513 yuan/ton. The bullish sentiment in the market mainly comes from three aspects: the continuous fermentation of the expectation of eliminating backward production capacity, the limited supply of spot goods in the market, and the extremely low inventory in delivery warehouses; and the strong support from the demand side due to the expansion of electrolytic aluminum production capacity. In terms of trading, although the inquiries from spot-futures traders for hedging purposes are active, due to the tight supply of spot goods and the quotes of holders not meeting the expectations of buyers, actual transactions are limited. Most holders choose to postpone sales and adopt a wait-and-see attitude [10] Shanghai Aluminum - On July 22, al2509 closed at 20,900 yuan/ton. In China, a new plan for stabilizing the growth of the non-ferrous metal industry is about to be released, providing support for copper and aluminum. The world's largest hydropower project has also ignited the enthusiasm of the capital market. During the off-season of consumption, the amount of ingot casting has increased, and the recent arrival of spot goods in the market has increased, replenishing market supply. The increase in aluminum prices has significantly suppressed consumption, highlighting the weakness of actual terminal demand, and there is still pressure for aluminum ingot inventory accumulation [10]

Group 1 - The third China International Supply Chain Promotion Expo (Chain Expo) opened on July 16, showcasing Swire Group's diverse businesses in the quality life section [1] - Swire Group's China Chairman, Cheung Yat Tak, emphasized the company's commitment to sustainable practices and collaboration with partners in China's industrial chain to promote high-quality development [1] - Swire Properties presented the future development blueprint of Beijing Taikoo Li through a model, highlighting standards for high-quality commercial communities [1] Group 2 - Swire Coca-Cola is embedding sustainability into its entire research, production, and operation chain to achieve its net-zero emissions target by 2050 [2] - Swire Sugar is leading a new trend in healthy consumption with innovative products like natural sweeteners and tremella soup [2] - Cathay Pacific aims to enhance global aviation through improved route planning, service quality, and passenger experience, reaching 100 global passenger destinations in the first half of this year [2] Group 3 - Swire Group's various businesses are focused on deepening supply chain collaboration through innovation and sustainable practices, aligning with the new development pattern of "dual circulation" [2] - The company is committed to contributing value to China's economic and social development while responding to diverse consumer demands for a better life [2]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating Most of the industries in the report are rated as "oscillating", with the exception of the log industry which is rated as "oscillating weakly", and the sugar industry which is expected to "oscillate weakly" in the long - term and "oscillate" in the short - term [7][8][9][10][12][14][16][17][18]. 2. Core View of the Report The report analyzes multiple agricultural and related industries, finding that most industries are currently in an oscillating state. Some industries face supply - demand imbalances, such as the oversupply in the hog industry; others are affected by factors like weather, policies, and trade relations, such as the possible weather - related speculation in natural rubber and the impact of trade agreements on protein meal [1][7][8]. 3. Summary by Variety 3.1 Oils and Fats - **View**: Oscillating and differentiating, with soybean and rapeseed oils oscillating strongly yesterday. - **Logic**: Good growth of US soybeans, a decrease in US soybean oil inventory, an increase in the expected demand for soybean oil in biodiesel, and the Brazilian biodiesel blending ratio increase. However, there is also pressure from the increase in palm oil production and the high inventory of domestic rapeseed oil [7]. 3.2 Protein Meal - **View**: Due to the signing of the Sino - Australian trade memorandum of understanding, the double - meal oscillated and slightly declined. - **Logic**: Abroad, the growth of US soybeans is smooth, but the export prospects are worrying; Brazil's exports are still high. Domestically, the signing of the Sino - Australian memorandum implies new Australian seed imports, with supply pressure leading to weak spot prices, but concerns about Sino - US trade support the futures prices. It is expected to oscillate in the short - term and be strong in the long - term [8]. 3.3 Corn/Starch - **View**: Spot transactions are light, and futures and spot prices oscillate weakly. - **Logic**: Futures prices rebounded slightly during the day and then fell back. On the spot side, supply at ports and deep - processing plants decreased, and there were price adjustments at some deep - processing plants. Deep - processing production and consumption data changed slightly, and there is a risk of supply shortage before the new grain is listed in large quantities [9][10]. 3.4 Hogs - **View**: Upstream slaughtering puts pressure on hog prices. - **Logic**: In the short - term, large hogs are being slaughtered at an accelerated pace, but the average weight has bottomed out and rebounded, and farmers are still reluctant to sell standard hogs. In the medium - term, the number of new - born piglets has been increasing, and there is room for an increase in hog slaughter in the second half of the year. In the long - term, the current production capacity is still high. The demand for pork has increased week - on - week, and the weight - reduction trend is blocked. In the short - term, the market has positive sentiment, but in the medium - and long - term, there is supply pressure in the third quarter [1][10]. 3.5 Natural Rubber - **View**: There may be weather - related speculation, but the expected increase is limited. - **Logic**: The rubber price rose rapidly at the end of trading yesterday, possibly due to weather - related speculation about a typhoon landing in Hainan Island or external capital. The trading logic follows the macro - sentiment, and the fundamentals are currently stable. The supply is affected by the rainy season, and the demand is relatively stable [12][13]. 3.6 Synthetic Rubber - **View**: The futures price rebounded after a decline. - **Logic**: The futures price followed the commodity adjustment and then rebounded due to the impact of natural rubber. The upward driving force is not obvious, but there is support from the macro - environment and the improvement in butadiene trading. It is expected to oscillate within a range [14]. 3.7 Cotton - **View**: Cotton prices increased with increased positions, breaking through the 14,000 - yuan mark. - **Logic**: In the medium - and long - term, the cotton market is loose, and the new cotton in Xinjiang is expected to increase in production. The demand is in the off - season, but the current commercial inventory is low. Yesterday, the futures price increased with increased positions, but there are multiple factors restricting further increases, and there is a risk of decline when new cotton is listed in large quantities [14]. 3.8 Sugar - **View**: Sugar prices fluctuated within a narrow range. - **Logic**: In the medium - and long - term, sugar prices are under downward pressure due to the expected supply surplus in the 25/26 sugar - making season. In the short - term, the decline in Brazilian sugar production and high domestic sales rates support sugar prices, but the increase in Brazilian production and exports and domestic imports will increase supply pressure [16]. 3.9 Pulp - **View**: The trend is dominated by the macro - environment, with a stalemate - type fluctuation. - **Logic**: The futures price fluctuated horizontally, and the supply - demand relationship is in a stalemate. The upward driving force comes from the macro - environment, but there is pressure at 5200 - 5300 yuan. In the short - term, there is a slight rebound space, and in the medium - term, there may be a phased increase, but the height is limited [17]. 3.10 Logs - **View**: There are few fundamental contradictions, and the short - term futures price oscillates. - **Logic**: Spot prices are weak due to the impact of delivery products, and the cost of importers has increased. Although it is the off - season, the overall demand is stable, and the market is in the bottom - building stage. There is no clear driving force for upward or downward movement in the short - term [18][19].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - The report does not provide an overall industry investment rating. However, it gives individual outlooks for different agricultural products, including "oscillating" for most products, "oscillating and declining" for corn and starch, and "oscillating weakly" for logs [5][6][7]. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Most agricultural products are expected to oscillate in the short - term, with different influencing factors for each product. The market is affected by various factors such as weather, supply and demand, trade relations, and macro - economic conditions [5][6][7]. 3. Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Views 3.1.1 Oils and Fats - **View**: The growth of US soybeans is good, and market sentiment has weakened. - **Logic**: As of July 13, 2025, the good - to - excellent rate of US soybeans was 70%, higher than expected. The US foreign trade tension has increased, and the US dollar rose on Monday. The expected increase in US biodiesel demand for US soybean oil and the increase in the biodiesel blending ratio in Brazil are positive factors. However, the large arrival volume of imported soybeans in China and the expected increase in palm oil production in Malaysia are negative factors. - **Outlook**: The oil market is expected to continue to oscillate and differentiate in the near future [5]. 3.1.2 Protein Meals - **View**: The good - to - excellent rate of US soybeans is higher than expected, and US soybeans are weaker than Dalian soybean meal. - **Logic**: International trade tensions are high. US soybeans are growing smoothly, but the export prospects are worrying. Brazilian soybean exports are still high. In China, the supply pressure dominates the weakness of the spot market, but concerns about Sino - US trade support the futures price. - **Outlook**: The domestic double - meal futures are stronger than US soybeans, and the domestic futures market is stronger than the spot market. The basis is expected to weaken. In the short - term, it will oscillate within a range, and in the long - term, it will be bullish [6]. 3.1.3 Corn/Starch - **View**: Pay attention to the risk of a periodic rebound. - **Logic**: The supply of ports and deep - processing enterprises has decreased slightly. The futures price rebounded slightly during the day and then fell back. The cumulative auction volume of imported corn is 137 million tons, and the transaction volume is about 82 million tons. - **Outlook**: It is expected to oscillate and decline in the short - term [7]. 3.1.4 Pigs - **View**: Supply and demand are stable, and pig prices oscillate. - **Logic**: In the short - term, large pigs are still being sold off, but the average weight has bottomed out and rebounded. The planned slaughter volume of group farms in July has decreased. In the medium - term, the number of new - born piglets from January to May 2025 has increased, and the slaughter volume is expected to increase in the second half of the year. In the long - term, the production capacity is still high. - **Outlook**: The reform expectation on the supply side boosts the sentiment of pig futures. The price is expected to oscillate, but there is still supply pressure in the medium - and long - term [9]. 3.1.5 Natural Rubber - **View**: It runs oscillating and strongly. - **Logic**: It is affected by capital sentiment at night and then adjusts with the market during the day. The trading logic follows the macro - sentiment. The supply in Asian producing areas is limited due to the rainy season, and the demand from tire enterprises has recovered. - **Outlook**: It may follow the overall commodity fluctuations before the fundamental situation provides guidance [11][13]. 3.1.6 Synthetic Rubber - **View**: The futures price oscillates within a range. - **Logic**: It follows the movement of natural rubber and the overall commodity market, but the amplitude is limited. There is no obvious upward driving force, but there is support from the macro - environment and the improvement of butadiene trading. - **Outlook**: It is expected to continue to oscillate within a range, and attention should be paid to device changes [14]. 3.1.7 Cotton - **View**: Cotton prices fluctuate within a narrow range. - **Logic**: According to the USDA's static balance sheet for the 25/26 season, the global, Chinese, and US cotton markets are all loose. The expected increase in Xinjiang's cotton production and the weak demand in the off - season are negative factors. However, the low inventory before the new cotton is listed provides support. - **Outlook**: It is expected to oscillate in the short - term, with a reference range of 13,500 - 14,300 yuan/ton. There is a risk of price decline when a large amount of new cotton is listed [15]. 3.1.8 Sugar - **View**: Pay attention to import changes. - **Logic**: In the medium - and long - term, sugar prices are weak and under downward pressure due to the expected oversupply in the 25/26 season. In the short - term, the decline in Brazil's sugar production and the high sales - to - production ratio in China support the price, but the increase in Brazil's production and exports and China's imports will increase the supply pressure. - **Outlook**: In the long - term, sugar prices are expected to oscillate weakly; in the short - term, they are expected to oscillate [17]. 3.1.9 Pulp - **View**: The macro - environment dominates the trend, and pulp prices are rising within a range. - **Logic**: The futures price rises with the macro - atmosphere. The supply and demand are in a stalemate, and the upward driving force comes from the macro - environment. The low US dollar price, high overseas pulp mill inventory, and weak downstream demand limit the upward space. - **Outlook**: The pulp futures are expected to oscillate due to the warm macro - atmosphere, weak supply - demand guidance, and low absolute valuation [18]. 3.1.10 Logs - **View**: The outbound volume has declined, and the inventory has increased. - **Logic**: The new - week outbound volume of logs has decreased, and the inventory has increased. The spot price is weak due to the impact of deliverable goods. The cost of both buyers and sellers has increased during the 07 delivery. The overall demand for logs this year is stable, and the inventory - reduction rhythm is slow. - **Outlook**: It is expected to oscillate weakly around the delivery cost in the short - term [19]. 3.2 Variety Data Monitoring - The report mentions variety data monitoring for oils and fats, corn and starch, pigs, cotton and yarn, sugar, pulp, and logs, but no specific data content is provided in the given text.

Market Review - ICE raw sugar October contract rose by 1.85% last Friday, while the overnight white sugar 2509 contract increased by 0.21% [1] Fundamental Summary - According to UkrAgroConsult, the Indian sugar industry, which previously benefited from ethanol blending policies, is now facing new challenges due to policy adjustments [2] - The Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs reported that the supply and demand forecast for the 2025/26 sugar season remains consistent with last month. The drought in Guangxi has negatively impacted sugarcane sprouting and growth, resulting in shorter and fewer sugarcane compared to the same period last year [2] - For the 2024/25 crushing season, Guangxi has processed 48.5954 million tons of sugarcane, a decrease of 2.5847 million tons year-on-year. The mixed sugar production reached 6.465 million tons, an increase of 283,600 tons or 4.59% year-on-year, with a sugar extraction rate of 13.30%, up by 1.22 percentage points year-on-year [2] Institutional Perspectives - Changjiang Futures noted that Brazil's Central-South region is expected to maintain high sugar production for the 2025/26 season, alongside increased production in India and slight growth in Thailand, leading to an oversupply situation that may suppress ICE sugar prices. However, as the crushing season peaks, actual production data from Brazil's main producing areas may not meet expectations [3] - Domestic market factors are mixed, with faster production and sales this season, ongoing summer consumption, and improved purchasing willingness from downstream sectors, particularly in the food and beverage industry. This has led to a significant reduction in industrial inventory, providing some support for sugar prices. However, long-term pressures from import profits and supply remain, with short-term stability expected due to low inventory levels [3] - Southwest Futures indicated that while Brazil's crushing is set to accelerate, production increase expectations have been adjusted downward. With low current inventory and anticipated high imports in the next two months, supply-demand conflicts are not acute, suggesting a neutral valuation after short-term basis adjustments, recommending a wait-and-see approach [3]

Group 1 - The U.S. Department of State announced sanctions against Cuban President Díaz-Canel and other senior officials, which may affect their ability to attend international events in the U.S. [2][3] - The sanctions are part of a broader strategy to strengthen economic sanctions against Cuba, including updating the list of restricted entities [3][4] - Cuba's Foreign Minister Rodríguez stated that U.S. sanctions have caused annual economic losses of billions of dollars, with cumulative losses exceeding $164.1 billion due to decades of economic and financial blockades [1][6] Group 2 - Cuba's economy is heavily reliant on key sectors such as nickel mining, sugar production, and tourism, with significant mineral resources including nickel, cobalt, and iron [5][6] - The country faces severe shortages of essential goods due to U.S. sanctions, which cover nearly all aspects of daily life, leading to a significant decline in living standards [6][7] - In 2023, Cuba's GDP was reported at 51.237 billion Cuban pesos (approximately $1.9 billion), with major exports including nickel, seafood, and tobacco [6]

Group 1: Core Achievements in Science and Technology - The 2024 Guangxi Science and Technology Awards recognized 160 achievements across various fields, showcasing Guangxi's robust development in scientific innovation [1] - Notable breakthroughs include the establishment of the world's first gene-edited primary liver cancer monkey model and the development of the first intravenous super-sensitive oncolytic virus, marking significant advancements in cancer treatment [2] - Enterprises played a crucial role, completing 106 of the awarded projects, which accounted for 66.3% of the total, indicating a shift from being "technology followers" to "innovation sources" [4] Group 2: Economic Impact and Contributions - The achievements from enterprises led to a substantial economic impact, generating an additional sales revenue of 420.3 billion, profits of 69.82 billion, foreign exchange earnings of 1.16 billion, and total cost savings of 16.34 billion over the past three years [4] - The innovation efforts of young scientists, such as those from Guangxi Liugong Machinery Co., Ltd. and Liuzhou Oweim Machinery Co., Ltd., have contributed significantly to the local economy, with new product sales reaching 200 million [3] Group 3: Policy and Strategic Initiatives - Guangxi has implemented several policies to enhance scientific innovation, including the "Several Measures for Deepening Scientific and Technological System Reform" and the "14th Five-Year Plan for Scientific and Technological Innovation," aimed at fostering high-quality development [5] - The establishment of the Fangchenggang International Medical Open Experimental Zone exemplifies Guangxi's strategy to create an international scientific cooperation platform, attracting numerous domestic and foreign research institutions and enterprises [5] Group 4: Future Outlook - The 2025 Guangxi Science and Technology Awards Conference serves as a starting point for future innovations, emphasizing the importance of collaboration between top scientists, emerging young talents, research institutions, and enterprises [6] - Guangxi aims to deepen open cooperation with ASEAN, positioning itself as a technological innovation hub that contributes to both regional and global development [6]

Group 1: Cotton Report Industry Investment Rating - Neutral [3] Core View - The actual sown area of U.S. cotton in the new year is higher than expected, and the supply may not show positive signs. The domestic cotton market has a tight supply-demand situation in the later stage of this year, but the new-year cotton production is expected to increase, and the demand is in the off-season [1][2]. Summary by Related Catalogs - **Market News and Important Data**: The closing price of the cotton 2509 contract was 13,745 yuan/ton, up 5 yuan/ton (+0.04%) from the previous day. The Xinjiang arrival price of 3128B cotton was 15,187 yuan/ton, up 70 yuan/ton, and the national average price was 15,212 yuan/ton, up 58 yuan/ton. The new-year actual sown area of U.S. cotton was 10.12 million acres, a year-on-year decrease of 9.5% [1]. - **Market Analysis**: The Zhengzhou cotton futures price fluctuated narrowly. Internationally, the supply-side positive factors may not appear, and attention should be paid to the weather and new cotton growth in major producing countries. Domestically, the supply-demand situation is tight in the later stage, but the new-year cotton production is expected to increase, and the demand is weak [2]. - **Strategy**: Maintain a neutral strategy. The macro uncertainty still exists, and the continuous upward space of cotton prices is restricted [3] Group 2: Sugar Report Industry Investment Rating - Neutral [6] Core View - The Zhengzhou sugar futures price followed the external market and weakened. The supply increase expectation in the Brazilian 25/26 sugar season has not changed, and the new-season production in India and Thailand is expected to increase, suppressing the ICE raw sugar price. However, the downside space of raw sugar is limited [5]. Summary by Related Catalogs - **Market News and Important Data**: The closing price of the sugar 2509 contract was 5,775 yuan/ton, down 32 yuan/ton (-0.55%) from the previous day. The spot price of sugar in Nanning, Guangxi was 6,090 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan/ton. In the first half of June, the sugarcane crushing volume in the central-southern region of Brazil decreased by 21.49% year-on-year, and the sugar production decreased by 22.12% year-on-year [4]. - **Market Analysis**: The Zhengzhou sugar futures price followed the external market and weakened. The supply pressure has been largely reflected, and the downside space of raw sugar is limited. The upside space of Zhengzhou sugar is restricted, and attention should be paid to the arrival rhythm of imported sugar and the substitute import policy [5][6]. - **Strategy**: Maintain a neutral strategy, focusing on the Brazilian sugar production estimate and the domestic import rhythm [6] Group 3: Pulp Report Industry Investment Rating - Neutral [9] Core View - The pulp futures price continued to be weak. The change in the delivery rules has little impact, and the supply is loose in the short term, while the demand is weak [8][9]. Summary by Related Catalogs - **Market News and Important Data**: The closing price of the pulp 2509 contract was 5,026 yuan/ton, down 38 yuan/ton (-0.75%) from the previous day. The spot price of Chilean Silver Star softwood pulp in Shandong was 5,950 yuan/ton, down 15 yuan/ton, and the price of Russian needles was 5,085 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan/ton [6]. - **Market Analysis**: The pulp futures price continued to be weak. The change in the delivery rules has little impact, and the supply is loose in the short term, while the demand is weak. The domestic port inventory is at a high level, and the downstream demand is weak [8]. - **Strategy**: Maintain a neutral strategy. The 09 contract is mainly priced by Russian needles and Uzbek needles, and the pulp price may be difficult to break away from the bottom in the short term [9]

品种观点 股指期货 - 6月24日A股三大指数集体走强，沪指涨1.15%收报3420.57点，深证成指涨1.68%收报10217.63点，创业板指涨2.30%收报2064.13点，沪深两市成交额达14146亿，较昨日大幅放量2920亿 [1] 焦炭 焦煤 - 6月24日焦炭加权指数震荡趋弱，收盘价1355.6元，环比下跌26.5；焦煤加权指数弱势，收盘价792.7元，环比下跌13.0 [2] - 焦炭受环保检查及焦化利润收紧等因素影响开工降低，钢厂原料备货低库存，刚需及采购需求走弱，河北及山东主流钢厂落实第四轮50 - 55元/吨提降 [3] - 焦煤因安全生产及环保检查放缓生产节奏，原煤供给环比走低，但矿山累库压力不减，库存处历史高位，钢焦企业放缓补库，中长期过剩格局难改 [3] 郑糖 - 美糖周一窄幅震荡小幅收低，受原油价格下跌影响多头平仓打压，郑糖2509月合约周二小幅走低，夜盘波动不大窄幅震荡 [3] - 2025年5月我国成品糖产量37.7万吨，同比增长59.1%；1 - 5月累计产量906.6万吨，同比增长4.9% [3] - 截止6月17日当周，对冲基金及大型投机客持有的原糖净空头仓位47141手，触及近年来高位，较之前一周增加27626手 [3] 胶 - 受原油价格大幅走低与东南亚现货报价下调等因素影响，沪胶周二震荡下行，夜盘因短线跌幅大受技术面影响震荡整理 [4] - 2025年5月中国橡胶轮胎外胎产量10199.3万条，同比下降1.2%；1 - 5月产量4.88962亿条，同比增2.8% [4] - 2025年5月中国合成橡胶产量69.9万吨，同比增加3.7%；1 - 5月累计产量353.4万吨，同比增加6.2% [4] 豆粕 - 国际市场6月24日CBOT大豆期货偏弱运行，美国中西部有利天气改善作物收成前景令价格承压，截止6月22日当周大豆优良率66%，低于预期和去年同期 [4] - 巴西全国谷物出口商协会预估6月大豆出口量达1499万吨，高于前一周预估值 [6] - 国内市场6月24日豆粕主力M2509收于3037元/吨，较前一交易日持平，5月中国从巴西进口大豆1211万吨，较去年同期激增37.5%，创下单月进口新高 [6] 生猪 - 6月23日生猪主力LH2509合约收于13905元/吨，跌幅0.29% [6] - 养殖端出栏情绪分化，中大猪认卖积极性提升，标猪认卖意愿一般，二育有滚动入场现象 [6] - 居民消费疲软，气温升高、饮食结构调整致鲜品猪肉走货差，商品猪出栏处于恢复期，猪源供应逐月递增，市场供需宽松，期货盘面上行空间受限 [6] 棕榈油 - 6月24日因中东局势缓和原油大幅回落，棕榈油期价跌2.28%，当日最高价8500，最低价8306，收盘8326 [7] - 印尼4月棕榈油出口量178万吨，较去年同期的218万吨下降，4月毛棕榈油产量448万吨，较3月增加，截至4月末库存量304万吨 [7] 沪铜 - 美联储金融监管副主席鲍曼对7月降息持开放态度，表态偏鸽，市场对降息预期提升，短暂提振铜价 [7] - 铜库存不断刷新阶段性低位，为铜价提供支撑，短期内沪铜在供应收缩预期和需求可能回暖作用下，价格下方空间有限，但需求端疲软，上方空间或受限 [7] 铁矿石 - 6月24日铁矿石2509主力合约震荡收跌，跌幅0.42%，收盘价703元 [8] - 本期铁矿海外发运量环比回升，国内到港量同步增加，供应环比宽松，钢厂高炉利润尚可按需补库，铁水产量止跌回升，短期呈震荡走势 [8] 沥青 - 6月24日沥青2509主力合约震荡下跌，跌幅5.01%，收盘价3580元 [8] - 沥青产能利用率环比回落，库存下滑，供应维持低位，出货情况改善，因中东地缘局势缓和原油价格调整，成本端上行驱动消失，短期价格震荡运行 [8] 棉花 - 周二夜盘郑棉主力合约收盘13565元/吨，6月25日全国棉花交易市场新疆指定交割（监管）仓库基差报价最低430元/吨，棉花库存较上一交易日减少74张 [8] 原木 - 6月24日2507开盘816、最低802.5、最高818.5、收盘806.5、日减仓2093手，关注806 - 820区间波动 [9] - 6月24日山东3.9米中A辐射松原木现货价格750元/方，江苏4米中A辐射松原木现货价格760元/方，较昨日持平 [9] - 1 - 5月原木进口量同比减少13.4%，5月进口量同比减少18.5%，港口原木库存逼近5个月新低，需求弱，供需无大矛盾，现货成交弱 [9] 钢材 - 6月24日rb2510收报2977元/吨，hc2510收报3099元/吨 [9] - 螺纹钢供应回升，需求季节性弱势，供增需弱基本面延续弱稳，钢价承压，但库存低位，现实矛盾有限，预计钢价维持低位震荡运行态势 [9] 氧化铝 - 6月24日ao2509收报2903元/吨 [10] - 矿端无较大扰动，国内前期停产检修企业复产，但氧化铝价格走软利润下行，对供应形成压制，利润空间或继续缩窄，底部有成本支撑 [10] 沪铝 - 6月24日al2508收报于20315元/吨 [10] - 国内电解铝生产稳定，交易所 + 社会库存小幅累库，现货升水状态维持，未锻轧铝及铝材出口量走增，下游需求进入淡季，压铸企业开工率下行，价格运行上下有限 [10]

Core Viewpoint - The company is focusing on the beverage sector by acquiring a significant stake in Asian Foods, aiming to enhance its market presence and address declining revenues in its food and beverage business [2][3]. Group 1: Acquisition Details - On June 23, the company announced plans to invest 90.28 million yuan to acquire 39.9996% of Asian Foods, gaining 100% voting rights [2]. - The acquisition is part of a strategy to strengthen its position in the beverage market, particularly with Asian Foods' flagship product, Asian Soda, which is a well-known brand in Southern China [3]. Group 2: Financial Performance - The company has faced revenue declines for two consecutive years, with a 0.29% decrease in 2023 and a projected 21.91% decrease in 2024 [3]. - In Q1 2025, the company reported a revenue of 484 million yuan, reflecting a 10.14% year-on-year decline [3]. Group 3: Business Segmentation - The largest revenue source for the company is the sugar industry, accounting for 73.14% of total revenue, while the beverage sector contributes only 14.93% [4]. - Despite the lower revenue share, the beverage segment has a significantly higher gross margin of 44.64%, compared to the sugar segment's 2.43% [4]. Group 4: Challenges and Market Position - Asian Foods is also experiencing performance pressures, with a reported revenue of 175 million yuan in 2024, down 11.17% year-on-year [4]. - The brand has struggled to maintain its market influence since the 1990s and faces challenges in product innovation and market penetration [4].