Morning session notice 更多精彩内容请关注格林大华期货官方微信 格林大华期货研究院 证监许可【2011】1288 号 2025 年 6 月 6 日星期五 早盘提示 分品种观点详述 评级预测说明："+"表示：当日收盘价>上日收盘价；"-"表示：当日收盘价<上日收盘价。 数字代表当日涨跌幅度范围（以主力合约收盘价计算）。0.5 表示：0≤当日涨跌幅<0.5%； 1 表示：0.5%≤当日涨跌幅<1%；2 表示：1%≤当日涨跌幅<2%；3 表示：2%≤当日涨跌幅<3%； 4 表示：3%≤当日涨跌幅<4%；5 表示：4%≤当日涨跌幅。评级仅供参考，不构成任何投资建 议。 研究员：李方磊 从业资格：F03104461 交易咨询资格：Z0021311 联系方式：19339940612 | 板块 | 品种 | 多（空） | 推荐理由 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 【行情复盘】 | 昨日 ...

Group 1 - The research emphasizes leveraging resource endowments to strengthen characteristic industries in Chongzuo, aiming for high-quality economic and social development [1] - The Shuxiang Mendi China Wood Industry Ecological City project in Chongzuo is the first mass production line for solid wood composites in the region, exporting products to Southeast Asia [2] - COFCO Chongzuo Sugar Industry Co., Ltd. is recognized as a national high-tech enterprise, leading in sugar quality and focusing on high-end sugar product development [3] Group 2 - The Shuikou Port in Longzhou County is highlighted as a key international trade port, facilitating cross-border industrial cooperation and enhancing customs efficiency [4] - The local government is encouraged to attract more enterprises for import processing, transitioning from "tunnel economy" to "industrial economy" to boost border trade [4] - The importance of completing economic and social development goals for the first half of the year is stressed, alongside enhancing investment attraction and supporting enterprises [5]

策略早餐 主要品种策略早餐 （2025.06.03） 养殖、畜牧及软商品板块 品种：生猪 核心逻辑： 1、供应方面，截至 2025 年 4 月，据农业农村部数据，全国能繁母猪存栏量为 4038 万头，环比持平，同比增长 1.3%。这一数据反映出自 2024 年 4 月以来，产能 累计上升 1.3%，处于较为平稳的格局，暂未出现产能下滑的情况。而根据第三方机 构钢联数据及涌益咨询的数据显示，2025 年 4 月能繁母猪存栏量环比小幅上升，尽 管第三方机构与官方数据在统计口径上存在一定的差异，但环比上涨在一定程度上 体现了市场上暂无去产能的驱动，甚至部分企业开始缓慢恢复产能。5 月份看来， 生猪市场情绪支撑因素仍存，叠加仔猪价格暂未明显下跌，预计上有能繁母猪存栏 量或仍然稳中有增。根据产能数据推算的生猪供应量仍然充足，暂未看到供应量下 降的格局。 2、需求方面，从投机性需求来看，据钢联数据统计，5 月 23 日当周国内重点 屠宰企业的冻品库容率为 17.28%，与上一周持平，处于历史低位。当前由于需求表 现疲软，冻品市场需求暂未改善，出库维持缓慢节奏。而部分屠宰企业现品销售困 难，存在被动分割入库的情况，综合导致 ...

Core Viewpoint - The event aimed to enhance communication between listed companies in Xinjiang and investors, focusing on financial reports, operational planning, risk management, investor protection, and sustainable development [1][8]. Group 1: Event Overview - The online collective reception day for investors was held on May 22-23, 2024, with participation from over 200 staff from 61 listed companies in Xinjiang [1]. - The event featured expert lectures and discussions under the theme "Compliance Foundation, Technology Empowerment" [1][11]. Group 2: Regulatory and Governance Insights - Zhao Peng, Deputy Director of the Xinjiang Securities Regulatory Bureau, emphasized the importance of investor relations management and the need for listed companies to enhance governance, information disclosure, and core competitiveness [3][10]. - The event served as a platform for listed companies to showcase their commitment to transparency and investor engagement [3][6]. Group 3: Performance Metrics - As of the end of 2024, Xinjiang's listed companies had a total share capital of 115.575 billion shares and a total market value of 777.81 billion yuan, with total assets of 34,310.92 billion yuan and net assets of 8,796.15 billion yuan [7]. - The companies collectively raised over 760 billion yuan through equity and debt financing, significantly contributing to the region's economic development [7]. Group 4: Investor Engagement - During the event, investors posed 1,518 questions, with companies responding to 1,341, resulting in an overall response rate of 88.34% [8]. - The high engagement level reflects the commitment of Xinjiang's listed companies to maintain open communication with investors [8]. Group 5: Awards and Recognition - The Xinjiang Listed Company Association announced that three companies were recognized in the "2024 Best Practices in Investor Relations Management" by the China Listed Company Association [12]. - Awards were also given to individuals and companies for excellence in governance and ESG disclosures, highlighting the region's focus on improving corporate governance standards [12].

Morning session notice | 板块 | 品种 | 多（空） | 推荐理由 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | 【行情复盘】 昨日 SR509 合约收盘价 5835 元/吨，日涨幅 0.03%。夜盘收于 5809 元/吨。SR601 合 约收盘价 5699 元/吨，日涨幅 0.11%，夜盘收 5678 元/吨。 | | | | | 【重要资讯】 | | | | | 1.昨日英美金融市场适逢假期休市，外盘无报价。 | | | | | 2.昨日广西白糖现货成交价6069元/吨，下跌24元/吨；广西制糖集团报价6110~6190 | | | | | 元/吨，部分下调 10 元/吨；云南制糖集团报价 5890~5940 元/吨，下调 10~20 元/ | | | | | 吨；加工糖厂主流报价区间 6360~6940 元/吨，调整区间为 10~20 元/吨，涨跌不一。 | | | | | 3.美国农业部（USDA）近日发布报告，预计 2025/26 榨季全球食糖产量增长 860 万 | | | | | 吨至 1.893 亿吨，巴西和印度产量提升将抵消欧盟减产。港口等 ...

Group 1: Overall Information - The report is from Green Grand Futures Research Institute on May 8, 2025 [1] - The researcher is Li Fanglei with qualification F03104461 and trading consultation qualification Z0021311, contact number 19339940612 [1] Group 2: Sugar Market Market Review - SR509 contract closed at 5868 yuan/ton yesterday with a daily decline of 0.37%, and 5825 yuan/ton at night. SR601 contract closed at 5730 yuan/ton with a daily decline of 0.21%, and 5695 yuan/ton at night [1] - ICE raw sugar July contract closed at 17.14 cents/pound yesterday with a daily decline of 1.55%. London white sugar August contract closed at 485.3 dollars/ton with a daily decline of 1.52% [1] Important Information - As of May 5, 2025, Russia sowed 1.00985 million hectares of sugar beets [1] - Brazil's central - southern region produced 731,000 tons of sugar in the first half of April, a 1.25% increase from last year. The cane crushing volume was 16.59 million tons, a 3% year - on - year increase [1] - As of April 30, 2025, in the 2024/25 sugar season in India, there were 19 sugar mills still in production, 4 less than last year. The crushed cane was 275.857 million tons, a decrease of 35.655 million tons (11.44%) from last year, and the sugar production was 25.695 million tons, a decrease of 5.77 million tons (18.33%) [1] - In Hainan, as of the end of April in the 2024/24 sugar season, the sugar sales rate was 27.59% with an inventory of 39,900 tons [1] - Yesterday, the spot price of Guangxi white sugar was 6079 yuan/ton, down 2 yuan/ton. Guangxi Sugar Group quoted 6130 - 6260 yuan/ton with a few down 10 yuan/ton. Yunnan Sugar Group quoted 5940 - 5980 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan/ton. The mainstream quotation of processing sugar factories was 6360 - 6920 yuan/ton, adjusted by 10 - 30 yuan/ton with mixed changes [1] - The previous trading day, the Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange's white sugar warehouse receipts were 30,301, a daily increase of 1672 [1] - The previous trading day, the SR9 - 1 spread was 138 yuan, a decrease of 10 yuan from the previous day [1] Market Logic - For the external market, ICE raw sugar futures fell again and basically gave back recent gains. Overseas sugar supply is expected to be good and there is insufficient capital buying intention, so the external market may test the 17 - cent/pound support and trade in a low - level oscillation [1] - For the domestic market, Zhengzhou sugar fell slightly yesterday and opened and moved lower at night affected by the external market. There is limited domestic trading information, and the import ban on syrup and premixed powder makes the domestic and foreign sugar prices more closely linked. The key is whether the downward space of raw sugar can be opened, and the strengthening basis will also support the sugar price [1] Trading Strategy - Hold the previous long positions for now. If it breaks below 5800 yuan/ton, exit and wait for the market sentiment to subside, then look for support at 5750 yuan/ton. Hold the SR9 - 1 calendar spread long position [1] Group 3: Jujube Market Market Review - CJ509 contract closed at 9050 yuan/ton with a daily increase of 0.06% [3] Important Information - The physical inventory of 36 sample points was 10,505 tons, a 0.15% decrease from the previous period and a 52.96% increase year - on - year [3] - Yesterday, 8 trucks of jujubes arrived at Guangzhou Ruyifang, an increase of 3 from the previous day [3] - The previous trading day, the jujube warehouse receipts were 8513, an increase of 15 [3] - The previous trading day, the CJ9 - 1 spread was - 960 yuan/ton, an increase of 30 yuan from the previous day [3] Market Logic - Jujubes are in the traditional off - season, and market demand is still weak. There is limited trading information, and whether the supply side can provide upward momentum remains to be seen. In the short term, jujube futures prices lack upward drivers, and in the long - term, attention should be paid to the impact of upstream weather [3] Trading Strategy - For the CJ509 contract, consider a small - scale long position after the current negative factors are digested, waiting for the weather - related market to develop. In the short term, it is recommended to wait and see [3] Group 4: Rubber Market Market Review - As of May 7, RU2509 contract closed at 14,810 yuan/ton with a daily decline of 0.03%. NR2506 contract closed at 12,575 yuan/ton with a daily increase of 0.16%. BR2506 contract closed at 11,375 yuan/ton with a daily increase of 0.53% [4] Important Information - Thailand's raw material glue price was 59.5 Thai baht/kg, and cup rubber price was 53.55 Thai baht/kg. In Yunnan, the price of glue for producing whole milk was 13,800 yuan/ton, and for producing concentrated milk was 14,000 yuan/ton, with a price difference of 200 yuan/ton. Yunnan's rubber block price was 13,100 yuan/ton. In Hainan, the price of glue for producing whole milk was 13,100 yuan/ton, and for producing concentrated latex was 14,100 yuan/ton, with a price difference of 1000 yuan/ton [4] - As of May 4, 2025, the total inventory of natural rubber in Qingdao's bonded and general trade was 614,200 tons, a 0.9% increase from the previous period. The bonded area inventory was 85,000 tons, a 4.3% increase, and the general trade inventory was 529,200 tons, a 0.38% increase [4] - As of April 30, the capacity utilization rate of China's semi - steel tire sample enterprises was 66.69%, a decrease of 5.67 percentage points from the previous period and 12.29 percentage points lower year - on - year. The capacity utilization rate of China's full - steel tire sample enterprises was 59.54%, a decrease of 6.25 percentage points from the previous period and 11.74 percentage points higher year - on - year [4] - Yesterday, the price of whole milk was 14,700 yuan/ton, unchanged. The price of 20 - grade Thai standard rubber was 1760 dollars/ton, down 10 dollars (- 0.56%), equivalent to 12,673 yuan/ton in RMB. The price of 20 - grade Thai mixed rubber was 14,400 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan (- 0.35%) [4] - Yesterday, the basis of whole milk and the RU main contract was - 110 yuan/ton, narrowing by 5 yuan/ton. The price difference between mixed standard rubber and the RU main contract was - 410 yuan/ton, widening by 45 yuan/ton [4] - Yesterday, the price of Shandong market's Daqing cis - butadiene BR9000 was stable at 11,550 yuan/ton, and the price of Shandong market's Qilu styrene - butadiene 1502 was stable at 12,100 yuan/ton [4] - Yesterday, the domestic butadiene industry's capacity utilization rate was 69.25%, a slight decrease of 0.62 percentage points from the previous day [4] - Yesterday, the butadiene delivery price in Shandong's central region was 9300 - 9500 yuan/ton, and the ex - tank self - pick - up price in East China was about 9000 yuan/ton [4] Market Logic - Natural rubber: It strengthened slightly and then fell again yesterday, and continued to decline at night. The previous small positive news did not boost the market continuously, and the domestic macro - environment did not meet expectations, calming market sentiment. The phenological conditions of rubber plantations at home and abroad are good, and tire factory sales are still not optimistic. So the upward space of the market is limited, and the price may oscillate to find a direction [4] - Synthetic rubber: The supply of butadiene is still abundant, but demand - side support is limited and has little impact on BR rubber. The spot price of cis - butadiene rubber in Shandong remained stable, and terminal procurement is mainly for rigid demand. The weak fundamentals of BR remain unchanged, and it may continue to oscillate at a low level without new news [4] Trading Strategy - For RU, focus on the support range of 14,400 - 14,550 yuan/ton and the resistance range of 15,000 - 15,200 yuan/ton. For NR, focus on the support range of 12,000 - 12,100 yuan/ton and the resistance range of 12,800 - 13,000 yuan/ton. Given the limited drivers, high - selling and low - buying short - term operations are the main strategy. For the BR main contract, the lower support range is 10,900 - 11,000 yuan/ton, and the resistance range is 11,600 - 11,800 yuan/ton. Take a bearish attitude in the short term [4]

Report Summary 1. Investment Ratings - No specific industry - wide investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Views - The current supply - demand situation of the main varieties in the market shows different characteristics. For the livestock and soft commodities sectors, the supply of pigs is strong and demand is weak in the short - term, while the sugar market is in a state of weak oscillation. In the energy - chemical sector, the oil price has a complex supply - demand relationship and is expected to be under pressure in the medium - term, and the PVC market has marginal improvement in fundamentals but lacks a strong upward drive [1][2][4][5]. 3. Summary by Variety Livestock and Soft Commodities Sector - **Pig**: The short - term supply pressure is large, and the demand is not significantly boosted. The supply - demand pattern of strong supply and weak demand remains unchanged. The pig price center is moving down, and the 07 and 09 contracts on the futures market are still bearish. It presents a volatile pattern with limited upside and a bottom for downside. It is recommended that the breeding side sell out - of - the - money put options or participate in the cumulative sales option products [1][2]. - **Sugar**: Both the short - term and medium - term trends are weakly oscillating. International factors such as Brazil's new - season sugar supply increase and India's production reduction co - exist. Domestically, the production increase expectation has been fulfilled, and there may be additional imports. It is recommended to wait and see [3][4]. Energy - Chemical Sector - **Crude Oil**: In the short - term, pay attention to the phased rebound, and in the medium - term, it will run under pressure. The supply side has certain supporting factors, and the demand side has some positive signals, but the inventory situation is complex. It is recommended to buy futures contracts and buy put options for protection [4][5]. - **PVC**: It shows a range - bound oscillation in the short - term, and lacks an upward drive in the medium - term. The cost has rebounded, supply has increased slightly, demand has some speculative factors, and inventory has decreased. It is recommended to sell out - of - the - money put options on PVC at an appropriate time [6][7].

Group 1 - The celebration of the 100th anniversary of the All-China Federation of Trade Unions took place on April 28, highlighting the recognition of labor models and advanced workers across various sectors in Guangxi [1] - A total of 58 individuals from Guangxi were honored, including 39 national labor models and 19 advanced workers, showcasing a diverse representation from government, enterprises, and various professional fields [1] - The selection process for the awards emphasized transparency, fairness, and public participation, reflecting the importance of recognizing contributions to economic and social development in Guangxi over the past five years [1] Group 2 - The list of national labor models includes professionals from different industries, such as engineering, healthcare, and agriculture, indicating a broad spectrum of expertise and contributions [2][3][4] - Notable awardees include managers and engineers from prominent companies like Guangxi Nannan Aluminum Processing Co., Ltd. and SAIC-GM Wuling Automobile Co., Ltd., highlighting the role of industry leaders in driving innovation and productivity [2][3] - The recognition of advanced workers also features individuals from various sectors, including education, law enforcement, and healthcare, emphasizing the critical roles these professionals play in their communities [4][5]

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - Consolidated adjusted EBITDA for Q4 reached $103 million, with a total of $444 million for 2024, marking an 8% year-over-year increase [4][9] - Gross sales totaled $368 million in Q4, with annual revenues reaching almost $1.5 billion, a 2% increase year-over-year [9] - Net cash from operations for 2024 was $161 million, allowing for a minimum distribution of $64 million in 2025 [7][25] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - Record results were achieved in the Rice and Dairy segments, while the Sugar, Ethanol, and Energy business saw operational records despite challenges [4][10] - Total crushing volume in the Sugar, Ethanol, and Energy business reached 12.8 million tonnes in 2024, a new record, although down 12% year-over-year for the quarter [11][12] - Adjusted EBITDA for the Farming business totaled $4 million in Q4 and $103 million for the year, consistent with the previous year [21][24] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - The average selling price for sugar was $0.226 per pound, down from $0.232 per pound in 2023, reflecting lower global sugar prices [13] - Ethanol prices have been recovering due to strong domestic consumption, although still below the previous year due to the depreciation of the Brazilian Real [14][56] - Carbon credits generated over 600,000 SEVAILOS at an average price of $14 per SEVAILO, totaling $9 million in net sales [15] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company is focusing on maximizing sugar production due to its attractive premium over ethanol, with a strategy to gradually increase hedges if prices rise above $0.19 per pound [33] - Investments are being made in expanding sugarcane plantations and developing biomethane production in Brazil, alongside enhancing rice and dairy operations in Argentina and Uruguay [7][26] - The company is also committed to ESG initiatives, including training programs for women in agribusiness and leadership development for employees [7] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management noted that the sugar market is expected to see price increases due to disappointing crops in the Northern Hemisphere and a smaller Brazilian crop anticipated for the upcoming season [32][33] - The company expects a slight increase in annual crushing figures for 2025, assuming normal weather conditions, while acknowledging the challenges posed by dry weather in 2024 [18][19] - Management emphasized the importance of weather conditions for crop yields and the potential benefits from ongoing trade dynamics affecting South American agriculture [35] Other Important Information - The company distributed $102 million in 2024, exceeding its distribution policy by $32 million, with a 9.4% distribution yield [24] - The unsolicited proposal from TETA Investments to acquire a majority stake in the company is under evaluation, with discussions ongoing but no assurance of a definitive agreement [27][28] Q&A Session Summary Question: What are the main triggers for positive price action on sugar? - Management highlighted disappointing crops in the Northern Hemisphere and a smaller Brazilian crop as key factors influencing sugar prices [32][33] Question: How will import tariffs affect the company's operations? - Management noted potential benefits for South American soy and corn production due to tariffs, while also seeing opportunities in rice and dairy markets [35] Question: What is the outlook for sugarcane crushing and potential constraints? - Management indicated that weather conditions are a significant factor, with expectations for improved crushing in the second half of the year [45][46] Question: Can you elaborate on the dynamics of ethanol prices and expected parity? - Management expects ethanol prices to recover due to high demand and limited supply, with a potential increase in the blend ratio soon [56][60] Question: What are the expectations for production costs in 2025? - Management anticipates production costs to remain similar in real terms, with a slight decrease in dollar terms due to various cost components [64][66] Question: How are expansion costs impacting the company's outlook? - Management noted that strategic leasing of high-quality farms is expected to lower planting costs in the future [78]