Core Viewpoint - A successful subsidy campaign should not only benefit consumers but also create a win-win situation for platforms, merchants, and delivery personnel [1][3] Group 1: Impact of Subsidy Campaigns - The recent subsidy war in the tea and coffee industry led to a significant increase in orders, with brands experiencing substantial revenue growth despite a slight decrease in profit margins per item [1][2] - The sudden influx of orders has exposed underlying industry issues such as quality fluctuations, service delays, and supply chain pressures [1][2] - Some stores extended their operating hours to accommodate the surge in orders, but staff morale and service quality are at risk due to overwork and fatigue [2] Group 2: Challenges for Brands - The unexpected nature of the subsidy campaigns has forced merchants to quickly adjust inventory and staffing, testing their operational resilience [2] - The subsidy war has intensified the "Matthew effect" in the industry, where larger brands with better resources can more effectively handle increased demand, while smaller brands may struggle [2][3] - The long-term sustainability of brands will depend on their ability to maintain consumer loyalty and market share once the subsidies are removed [2][3] Group 3: Importance of Quality and Supply Chain - As consumer preferences evolve rapidly, brands must focus on product quality and operational excellence to survive beyond price wars [3] - Some brands have recognized the importance of supply chain management, investing in self-owned farms and improving cold chain logistics to enhance product quality and reduce costs [3] - Ultimately, brands that invest in their core competencies and build genuine competitive advantages will be better positioned for long-term success [3]

Core Viewpoint - The ice cream market is undergoing significant changes, with premium brands like Magnum and Häagen-Dazs facing challenges due to shifting consumer preferences towards affordable options and local brands [1][2][5]. Company Overview - Unilever's ice cream business has been separated and will operate as Magnum Company, planning to go public in Q4 2023 in major cities [1]. - Magnum Company holds a strong market position, with a retail value of €8.3 billion in 2024, showing a 4.5% year-on-year growth [1]. - Häagen-Dazs is struggling in China, with reports of declining revenue and foot traffic, leading to potential store closures [2][4]. Market Dynamics - The ice cream market is experiencing a shift towards lower-priced products, with premium ice creams becoming less popular in retail channels [5][16]. - In China, the average ice cream consumption per person reached 3.1 kg in 2024, indicating significant growth potential despite current market challenges [12][13]. - The competitive landscape is intensifying, with local brands like Yili and Mengniu posing strong challenges to established players [4][16]. Consumer Behavior - Consumers are increasingly price-sensitive, especially in the current economic climate, leading to a decline in high-end ice cream sales [14][15]. - The trend towards affordable ice cream is evident, with over 70% of ice cream orders on platforms like Meituan priced below 3 yuan [16]. - Young consumers aged 18-35 are driving the demand for ice cream, emphasizing the need for innovative flavors and healthier options [19]. Industry Trends - The ice cream industry is evolving to become a year-round product, with brands exploring new consumption scenarios beyond summer [20]. - The competition in the ice cream market is becoming similar to that in the coffee and tea sectors, with price wars and flavor innovations becoming common strategies [21][22]. - Major ice cream brands are experiencing revenue declines, with Yili's ice cream business down 18.41% and Mengniu's down 14.12% in 2024 [22].

Core Viewpoint - The recent massive subsidy war between Alibaba's Taobao and Meituan has led to a significant increase in order volumes, with Meituan experiencing server overload due to unprecedented demand [2][4]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - On July 5, Meituan's daily orders exceeded 1.2 billion, with over 1 billion being food orders, indicating a surge in user engagement due to the subsidy campaigns [2]. - Taobao's flash purchase platform initiated a subsidy plan worth 500 billion yuan, resulting in a 170% and 140% increase in orders for restaurant chains and small businesses, respectively [2][4]. - The competition is expected to extend into the instant retail sector, benefiting third-party delivery platforms amid oversaturation of orders [4][6]. Group 2: Impact on Specific Sectors - The coffee and tea beverage sector is anticipated to benefit significantly from the ongoing subsidy war, with brands like Luckin Coffee and others expected to see strong same-store sales growth [4]. - The tea beverage industry, particularly brands such as Cha Bai Dao and Gu Ming, has already seen stock prices rise significantly, with some stocks increasing by over 15% [4]. Group 3: Financial Implications - Goldman Sachs predicts that the current price war will reshape the industry landscape, with total investments by the major players reaching 250 billion yuan in a single quarter [6]. - The competition is expected to last longer than previous price wars, with a potential peak in investment by September 2025, followed by a possible turning point in the second half of 2025 [6]. Group 4: Company Strategies - Meituan's CEO has indicated a commitment to increasing subsidy investments despite the potential for reduced profit margins in the core local business segment [5]. - All major players are vying for a position as a "daily application" in consumers' lives, leveraging high-frequency delivery services to cross-sell other services [6].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on the virtual asset sector and trading platforms, indicating a sustained focus on these areas [1][8]. Core Insights - The report highlights the ongoing trend of virtual assets, with increasing regulatory frameworks and institutional involvement, suggesting a favorable long-term outlook for the sector [1][8]. - The Hong Kong government has released a new digital asset development policy, reinforcing its commitment to becoming a global innovation center for digital assets [48]. - The report emphasizes the importance of quality assets in the Hong Kong stock market, particularly in light of the influx of mainland Chinese companies going public [8]. Industry Summary Education - The K12 education sector remains robust, with leading institutions like New Oriental showing positive enrollment feedback for summer programs [3][18]. - The education index rose by 7.41% during the week, outperforming major indices [9][11]. Luxury Goods - The luxury goods sector is experiencing slight pressure due to macroeconomic factors, but brands with strong innovation capabilities are still seeing growth [3][22]. - Notable stock movements include a 6.10% increase for Samsonite and a slight decline for Prada [22][29]. Coffee and Tea - The coffee sector continues to thrive, with net increases in store numbers and positive same-store sales growth for leading brands [3][31]. - The tea beverage sector faces increased competition due to supply growth driven by delivery platform subsidies [3]. E-commerce - The e-commerce sector is under pressure, with a slowdown in overall growth and intense competition, particularly in instant retail [3][30]. - Key players like JD.com and Pinduoduo have shown positive stock performance during the week [30]. Streaming Platforms - Music streaming platforms are highlighted as quality internet assets driven by domestic demand, with continued profitability growth [3][37]. - The report notes a 4.5% decline in the media index, with Spotify and Netflix showing significant gains [37]. Virtual Assets & Trading Platforms - The report emphasizes the positive trend in virtual assets, supported by regulatory developments and institutional interest [1][8]. - The global cryptocurrency market capitalization reached $337.24 billion, with Bitcoin and Ethereum prices increasing [41][48]. Automotive Services - The automotive maintenance sector is monitored, with key players identified and ongoing changes in the aftermarket ecosystem [3][50]. - The report notes a 3.10% increase in the automotive services index, with mixed performances among key companies [50].

Core Viewpoint - The intense competition in the food delivery market in 2025 is leading to significant pressure on both store staff and delivery riders, resulting in conflicts and operational challenges [1][2][4]. Group 1: Industry Dynamics - The food delivery market is experiencing a surge in demand, particularly for beverages, driven by promotional strategies such as discounts and red envelopes [1]. - The operational model of many coffee and tea brands, including Tims, emphasizes strict control over labor costs, often resulting in insufficient staffing during peak hours [5][10]. - The shift towards "made-to-order" food items, such as Tims' warm food offerings, complicates the workflow and increases the likelihood of delays, leading to customer dissatisfaction [10][14]. Group 2: Staff and Rider Conflicts - Conflicts between store staff and delivery riders are common, often stemming from delays in food preparation and the pressure to meet delivery times [2][8][19]. - Staff members report feeling overwhelmed during peak hours, with insufficient time to manage both food preparation and customer service, leading to a tense work environment [6][14]. - Delivery riders face financial penalties for late deliveries, which exacerbates tensions with store staff who are also under pressure to fulfill orders quickly [18][22]. Group 3: Operational Challenges - The increase in order volume during peak times can lead to "order bottlenecks," where the time to prepare food significantly exceeds expectations, causing frustration for both staff and riders [8][9]. - Many stores operate with minimal staff, which can lead to operational breakdowns during busy periods, affecting overall service quality [7][14]. - The complexity of the order system, including pre-scheduled orders, can create confusion and further delays, impacting the efficiency of both staff and riders [19][22]. Group 4: Employee Experience - Employees express dissatisfaction with their working conditions, citing high stress levels and inadequate compensation for the workload they manage [5][15]. - The high turnover rate among staff is attributed to the demanding nature of the job and the lack of adequate training and support from management [15][20]. - The emotional labor involved in customer service, combined with the repetitive nature of the tasks, contributes to a challenging work environment for employees [16][20].

Group 1: Economic Indicators - The US Markit Manufacturing PMI for June remains at 52, indicating continued expansion and is the highest level since February, surpassing expectations of 51 [1] - The Markit Services PMI for June is at 53.1, lower than the previous value of 53.7 but higher than the expected 52.9, marking a two-month low [1] - The Manufacturing Materials Purchasing Price Index has surged by 5.4 points to 70, the largest increase in four years, attributed to tariff impacts [1] Group 2: Tax Regulations - New regulations for tax reporting by internet platform companies have been implemented, requiring platforms like Douyin and JD to report income data quarterly [3][4] - The regulations aim to enhance oversight of improper business practices and ensure compliance among various internet business entities [3][4] Group 3: Automotive Industry - Changan Automobile Group has officially changed its name to Chen Zhi Automotive Technology Group, indicating a shift in focus towards automotive components [5][6] - The restructuring of Changan Automobile signifies its elevation to a central enterprise level, comparable to other major automotive companies [5] Group 4: Coffee Market - Gu Ming Coffee has expanded its presence to over 7,600 stores nationwide, positioning itself among the top five in the fresh coffee market [7] - The company reported a net profit of 10.80 billion yuan in 2023, with projections of 14.79 billion yuan for 2024, indicating strong growth [7] Group 5: Investment Plans - Amazon plans to invest 540 billion USD in the UK over the next three years, creating thousands of jobs and enhancing its logistics infrastructure [9][10] - This investment reflects Amazon's commitment to the UK market, which is its third-largest after the US and Germany [9] Group 6: Copper Market - LME copper inventories have decreased by approximately 80% this year, leading to significant price increases and a tight market situation [11][12] - The rapid decline in inventory is attributed to increased demand and potential tariff impacts on copper imports [12][13] Group 7: Stock Market Outlook - Goldman Sachs maintains an overweight recommendation for Chinese stocks, projecting a target of 4,600 points for the CSI 300 index, indicating a potential upside of about 10% [14] - The firm has raised ratings for the banking and real estate sectors, benefiting from domestic policy support [14][15]

Core Viewpoint - The company Kudi Coffee is facing challenges in its expansion into the convenience store sector, with mixed results observed in its existing stores and concerns about profitability and operational efficiency [4][11][14]. Group 1: Business Model and Strategy - Kudi Coffee's new franchise policy allows for a full refund of initial investment costs if the business does not perform well within six months, reducing the financial risk for franchisees [3]. - The company aims to integrate coffee sales with convenience store offerings, creating a "coffee-themed convenience store" that includes a variety of food and retail products [9][10]. - Kudi's expansion strategy is driven by a goal to reach 50,000 stores, necessitating new revenue streams beyond coffee sales to achieve this target [8][22]. Group 2: Market Position and Competition - The convenience store market in China is highly fragmented, with significant opportunities for Kudi to differentiate itself and target lower-tier markets [22][23]. - Kudi's approach of combining coffee with convenience store products may attract customers who are already familiar with coffee consumption in convenience settings [23]. - However, Kudi's supply chain and operational efficiency are currently lacking compared to established competitors, which may hinder long-term success [11][23]. Group 3: Operational Challenges - Franchisees have reported inefficiencies in Kudi's support system, including delays in providing necessary materials for store setup, leading to some opting out of partnerships [12]. - There are issues with product availability and mismatches in inventory, which could negatively impact customer satisfaction and sales [13]. - The company is heavily reliant on promotional discounts and external subsidies to drive sales, raising concerns about the sustainability of its current growth model [18][19]. Group 4: Recent Performance and Future Outlook - Kudi Coffee has seen a significant increase in sales through online platforms, with over 40 million orders reported on JD.com and a tenfold increase in sales on Taobao within 24 hours [16][18]. - Despite recent growth, the company faces a critical challenge in maintaining momentum and profitability as external subsidies decrease [18][24]. - The ongoing competition in the coffee and convenience store sectors will require Kudi to adapt quickly to market demands and improve its operational capabilities to avoid potential setbacks [25].

Group 1: Virtual Assets and Stablecoins - The trend of virtual assets is continuously improving due to the enhancement of regulatory frameworks and increased institutional participation, with expectations of liquidity easing [2][18][25] - The global stablecoin market is projected to grow significantly, from approximately $5 billion in 2020 to around $200 billion by the end of 2024, indicating a clear expansion path for trading scenarios [25][26] - Various regions are implementing stablecoin policies, such as the U.S. passing the "Genius Act" and Hong Kong enacting the "Stablecoin Ordinance," which will take effect on August 1, 2025 [25][29] Group 2: Streaming Platforms - Music streaming platforms are identified as high-quality internet assets driven by domestic demand, with continuous scale effects driving profit leverage [2] - The market for music subscriptions is expected to grow, with major players like Spotify and Tencent Music holding significant market shares [33] Group 3: O2O Service Platforms - The trend of strong players becoming stronger is evident, with major platforms like Beike and Tuhu expected to increase market share amid a shrinking real estate and automotive aftermarket demand [2][39] - The used housing transaction volume in key cities showed a month-on-month decline, indicating a buyer's market, which may benefit established platforms [39] Group 4: Coffee, Tea, and E-commerce Delivery Platforms - The online retail sales of physical goods grew by 6.3% year-on-year from January to May 2025, indicating a competitive landscape where marketing expenses are rising [2][56] - The coffee and tea segment is highlighted as a key beneficiary in the delivery battle, with significant growth in order volumes and city coverage [68][75] Group 5: K12 Education and Training - The K12 education sector is experiencing a resurgence in non-subject training demand, with a significant reduction in subject-based training institutions, leading to a scarcity of quality compliant products [2][86] - Major players in the K12 sector, such as New Oriental and TAL Education, are showing strong performance with revenue growth exceeding 20% year-on-year [91]

风险提示 本周观点 关注海外资产的季报变化： 投资逻辑 法律框架逐步完善，虚拟资产趋势向上。1）港股整体观点：今年港股整体表现突出，各种板块、概念层出不穷， 底层逻辑来自于便宜资产的长期低估，大量内地优质资产在港 IPO，提升了港股的资产质量，吸引了全球流动资 金的关注、加持。另外，去美元化的全球投资策略和美国降息预期对港股的流动性利好。据此我们对港股的未来 趋势持续乐观。短期层面，由于估值、国际环境等问题，港股不排除震荡或者回调的风险，特别是对于前期涨幅 较大&估值较高的个股，短期回调属于健康调整。2）目前我们持续看多虚拟资产（含稳定币）的发展，近期包括 蚂蚁、META、贝莱德在内的传统互联网、金融机构向虚拟资产和稳定币延申的趋势明显。我们认为，稳定币政策 只是虚拟资产大趋势下的一环，未来还会有更多政策制度出台，持续看好。美国、香港的虚拟资产相关法律框架 逐步完善，虚拟资产趋势向上。 后续政策不及预期风险；中美关系变化风险；内容上线及表现不及预期风险；宏观经济运行不及预期风险；AI 技 术迭代和应用不及预期风险；政策监管风险。 敬请参阅最后一页特别声明 1 教育：K12 教培行业高景气维持，非学科产品合规优 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on the Hong Kong stock market, particularly in sectors such as AI, new consumption, and innovative pharmaceuticals, indicating a rising risk appetite among investors [2][9]. Core Insights - The Hong Kong stock market has shown significant improvement in risk appetite, with notable performance in sectors like AI, new consumption, and innovative pharmaceuticals, leading to increased investor interest, especially in small and mid-cap stocks [2][9]. - The report suggests active participation in A+H shares due to observed discount phenomena in IPOs, with a focus on new consumption and manufacturing sectors [2][9]. - There is a sustained bullish outlook on virtual assets and the Web 3.0 market, driven by stablecoin policies and IPOs, with expectations for more regulatory developments in the future [2][9]. - The valuation of overseas Chinese assets remains influenced by US-China trade relations and the broader economic environment, highlighting the need to monitor changes in US tariff policies and domestic economic strategies [2][9]. Industry Tracking Summary 1. Education - The education index decreased by 0.98% from June 9 to June 13, underperforming compared to major indices, with 51talk rising by 12.09% and Thinking Education falling by 11.55% [10][14]. 2. Luxury Goods - The luxury goods sector faced slight pressure, with key stocks like Prada declining by 6.01% while new brands like Shiseido rose by 2.02% during the same period [18][21]. 3. Coffee and Tea - The sector showed stable growth, with individual stocks like Luckin Coffee increasing by 1.87%, while others like Bawang Tea experienced declines [23][27]. 4. E-commerce - The e-commerce sector saw a slight decline, with major players like Alibaba and JD.com facing competitive pressures, while the Hang Seng Internet Technology Index rose by 3.46% [29][34]. 5. Streaming Platforms - The streaming sector outperformed, with Tencent Music and NetEase Cloud Music showing significant gains, while Netflix experienced a decline [35][38]. 6. Virtual Assets & Internet Brokers - The global cryptocurrency market capitalization increased by 5.9%, with Bitcoin and Ethereum prices showing slight fluctuations, indicating ongoing interest in virtual assets [42][43].