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传媒互联网产业行业周报:法律框架逐步完善,虚拟资产趋势向上-20250622
SINOLINK SECURITIES· 2025-06-22 12:00
风险提示 本周观点 关注海外资产的季报变化: 投资逻辑 法律框架逐步完善,虚拟资产趋势向上。1)港股整体观点:今年港股整体表现突出,各种板块、概念层出不穷, 底层逻辑来自于便宜资产的长期低估,大量内地优质资产在港 IPO,提升了港股的资产质量,吸引了全球流动资 金的关注、加持。另外,去美元化的全球投资策略和美国降息预期对港股的流动性利好。据此我们对港股的未来 趋势持续乐观。短期层面,由于估值、国际环境等问题,港股不排除震荡或者回调的风险,特别是对于前期涨幅 较大&估值较高的个股,短期回调属于健康调整。2)目前我们持续看多虚拟资产(含稳定币)的发展,近期包括 蚂蚁、META、贝莱德在内的传统互联网、金融机构向虚拟资产和稳定币延申的趋势明显。我们认为,稳定币政策 只是虚拟资产大趋势下的一环,未来还会有更多政策制度出台,持续看好。美国、香港的虚拟资产相关法律框架 逐步完善,虚拟资产趋势向上。 后续政策不及预期风险;中美关系变化风险;内容上线及表现不及预期风险;宏观经济运行不及预期风险;AI 技 术迭代和应用不及预期风险;政策监管风险。 敬请参阅最后一页特别声明 1 教育:K12 教培行业高景气维持,非学科产品合规优 ...
传媒互联网产业行业周报:港股风险偏好持续上行,且逐步向中小盘延伸-20250615
SINOLINK SECURITIES· 2025-06-15 13:31
Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on the Hong Kong stock market, particularly in sectors such as AI, new consumption, and innovative pharmaceuticals, indicating a rising risk appetite among investors [2][9]. Core Insights - The Hong Kong stock market has shown significant improvement in risk appetite, with notable performance in sectors like AI, new consumption, and innovative pharmaceuticals, leading to increased investor interest, especially in small and mid-cap stocks [2][9]. - The report suggests active participation in A+H shares due to observed discount phenomena in IPOs, with a focus on new consumption and manufacturing sectors [2][9]. - There is a sustained bullish outlook on virtual assets and the Web 3.0 market, driven by stablecoin policies and IPOs, with expectations for more regulatory developments in the future [2][9]. - The valuation of overseas Chinese assets remains influenced by US-China trade relations and the broader economic environment, highlighting the need to monitor changes in US tariff policies and domestic economic strategies [2][9]. Industry Tracking Summary 1. Education - The education index decreased by 0.98% from June 9 to June 13, underperforming compared to major indices, with 51talk rising by 12.09% and Thinking Education falling by 11.55% [10][14]. 2. Luxury Goods - The luxury goods sector faced slight pressure, with key stocks like Prada declining by 6.01% while new brands like Shiseido rose by 2.02% during the same period [18][21]. 3. Coffee and Tea - The sector showed stable growth, with individual stocks like Luckin Coffee increasing by 1.87%, while others like Bawang Tea experienced declines [23][27]. 4. E-commerce - The e-commerce sector saw a slight decline, with major players like Alibaba and JD.com facing competitive pressures, while the Hang Seng Internet Technology Index rose by 3.46% [29][34]. 5. Streaming Platforms - The streaming sector outperformed, with Tencent Music and NetEase Cloud Music showing significant gains, while Netflix experienced a decline [35][38]. 6. Virtual Assets & Internet Brokers - The global cryptocurrency market capitalization increased by 5.9%, with Bitcoin and Ethereum prices showing slight fluctuations, indicating ongoing interest in virtual assets [42][43].
星巴克首次直接降价,并非放弃“咖位”
财富FORTUNE· 2025-06-13 13:19
图片来源:视觉中国 星巴克中国正在采取与其他国家市场不同的战术。 去年9月正式上任的星巴克董事长、首席执行官Brian Niccol,主张从根本上改变公司战略。他上任后的 计划是——精简菜单、减少折扣、慢而有序的创新、缩减下一财年的新店数量以释放资金支持转型。 而星巴克未把中国市场放在该调整计划之中。当时Niccol坦言,中国市场竞争非常激烈,星巴克需要想 清楚如何在当下和未来实现增长。 近期的消息表明,星巴克中国正在走一条与全球市场不同的路。 财报或许是指引这家全球最大咖啡连锁品牌做出选择的关键因素——根据星巴克中国4月30日发布的 2025财年第二财季业绩报告,当季公司营业收入为7.397亿美元,同比增长5%。中国同店交易量增长 4%,止住了2024年以来持续的下跌趋势。作为对比,北美市场第二财季同店交易量下降4%。 中国市场的表现对这家公司而言愈发重要。而这片市场由于其独特之处,注定无法与其他市场采取相似 的战术。 6月11日消息,据英国《金融时报》报道,星巴克首席执行官Brian Niccol表示,星巴克可能出售中国业 务的股权,并称此事引起了"极大兴趣"。该公司正在寻找有兴趣将该连锁门店从约8000 ...
2.9元咖啡坑惨了库迪店员
36氪· 2025-06-13 10:08
低廉的单价在前,即便单量再大,也并不足以给库迪"脱胎换骨"。 文 | 边程 编辑 | 董雨晴 来源| 凤凰网科技《风暴眼》 (ID:ifeng_tech) 封面来源 | unsplash 在库迪咖啡工作的小余,最近很忙。 "库迪的员工们你们还好吗?" 进入5月以来,社交媒体上有关库迪爆单的控诉多了起来,"史无前例的爆单",一位库迪员工如此形容。 但让库迪员工感到棘手的不是做不完的单子,而是"沟通"。"每天都要在骑手和顾客之间斡旋"。一位库迪员工表示,每天可能面临的窘迫包括骑手打架、顾 客催命,以及一大批沟通无果的退单。 "以前最害怕周末班进行周盘点,现在害怕每一个工作日早晨"。 门店营业的时间是9点40,她至少要提前半个小时进行开店准备。待到接单外卖的机器开始运作,小余便开始了一天的工作。 3月份开始,京东掀起了一场外卖大战,单杯冰美式价格降至1.68元,小余门店里的单量直接上升至日均500杯的水准。对于同时段只有两个人的店中店来 说,500杯的日单量确实"忙不过来"。 小余还记得最忙的那天,早上是两个人在岗,晚上闲时留了一个人,但仍旧没能顶住一天700杯的单量。"我从9点40开始吭哧吭哧,直到外卖小哥问了我 ...
2.9元咖啡坑惨了库迪店员
36氪· 2025-06-13 10:01
Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the surge in sales for Kudi Coffee due to aggressive pricing strategies and external subsidies, while highlighting the operational challenges faced by employees and the potential risks associated with low profit margins and reliance on subsidies [2][12][22]. Group 1: Sales Surge and Operational Challenges - Kudi Coffee has seen a significant increase in daily orders, with some stores reporting up to 700 orders in a single day, leading to overwhelming workloads for staff [2][5][11]. - Despite the increase in sales volume, employees report that their working conditions and earnings have not improved significantly, with many only receiving minimal bonuses or hourly wages that do not correlate with the increased workload [7][12][17]. - The operational intensity has led to employee burnout, particularly during peak hours, with reports of staff working long hours without breaks [11][12]. Group 2: Profitability and Cost Structure - The cost of materials for a cup of Kudi Coffee is approximately 5-6 yuan, while the selling price on platforms like JD is around 6.9 yuan, indicating low profit margins [13][16]. - The average annual cost of operating a Kudi store ranges from 510,000 to 660,000 yuan, with a typical payback period of 1 to 1.5 years under current subsidy conditions [14][16]. - The reliance on external subsidies from platforms like JD, estimated at around 200 million yuan per month, raises concerns about long-term sustainability once these subsidies are reduced or eliminated [22][23]. Group 3: Competitive Landscape - Kudi Coffee operates in a highly competitive environment, closely following the strategies of Luckin Coffee, which has established a strong market presence with significant revenue growth [19][20]. - The article notes that while Kudi has expanded its store count, many stores may be closing, indicating challenges in maintaining profitability and operational efficiency [20][22]. - The future success of Kudi Coffee may depend on its ability to enhance its supply chain, product offerings, and overall profitability model beyond the current subsidy-driven growth [23].
“外卖七块九,自取九块九,最近一天三杯美式!”大额补贴下外卖订单剧增,商家担忧→
第一财经· 2025-06-11 09:56
Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the intense competition among food delivery platforms, particularly focusing on the significant subsidies being offered by companies like JD.com, Alibaba, and Meituan, which have led to a surge in orders and changes in consumer behavior [1][2]. Group 1: Impact of Subsidies on Orders - JD.com launched a 10 billion yuan subsidy campaign in April, resulting in daily orders exceeding 10 million by April 22 and reaching 25 million by June 1 [3]. - Alibaba's Ele.me also increased its subsidies, with the combined daily orders from Taobao and Ele.me surpassing 40 million, where non-tea drink orders accounted for 75% [3]. - The coffee and tea categories have seen significant price reductions, with JD.com's Kudi coffee selling for as low as 5.9 yuan and sales exceeding 100 million units [3][4]. Group 2: Merchant Experiences and Concerns - Merchants have reported increased orders and revenue due to the subsidies, with one merchant noting a 50% increase in daily orders since April [5][6]. - However, there are concerns about the sustainability of these subsidies, with merchants fearing a drop in orders once the subsidies are removed [9][10]. - Some merchants are experiencing pressure from the subsidy competition, leading to a situation where they must bear a larger share of the subsidy costs, which could impact their profitability [10]. Group 3: Regulatory and Market Dynamics - Regulatory bodies have begun to take notice of the competitive practices in the food delivery industry, urging platforms to adhere to fair competition and consumer protection standards [11]. - Analysts predict that the current subsidy war may not last beyond 1-2 years, as both merchants and consumers will likely return to more rational behaviors, reducing the effectiveness of subsidies [10][11]. - The competition is expected to shift from price wars to brand marketing, technological innovation, and rider rights protection, emphasizing the need for a more sustainable and balanced market environment [11].
大额补贴刺激外卖订单剧增,“被卷”商家盼行业回归理性
Di Yi Cai Jing· 2025-06-11 05:58
Group 1 - Starbucks announced a price reduction for the first time in 25 years in response to intense competition in the coffee and tea beverage market [1] - The competition among delivery platforms has intensified, with JD.com launching a 10 billion yuan subsidy and Alibaba increasing its subsidies, leading to significant changes in consumer behavior [1][2] - The order volume for JD.com exceeded 10 million on April 22 and reached 25 million by June 1, indicating a substantial increase in demand driven by subsidies [2] Group 2 - The coffee and tea beverage categories are key focus areas for the current subsidy wars, with prices for products like coffee being significantly reduced [2][3] - Merchants are experiencing a surge in orders, with some reporting a 50% increase in daily orders due to the ongoing subsidy promotions [5] - Concerns about the sustainability of these subsidies are rising, as merchants fear that once the subsidies end, consumer demand may drop sharply [7][8] Group 3 - The competitive landscape is shifting towards larger brands, with smaller merchants facing increased pressure and potential profit erosion due to rising subsidy costs [8] - Regulatory bodies are taking notice of the competitive practices in the food delivery industry, emphasizing the need for fair competition and consumer protection [9] - Analysts predict that the current subsidy-driven competition may not last beyond 1-2 years, as both consumers and merchants will likely return to more rational behaviors [8][9]
星巴克入华25年首降价,更多调整在路上
经济观察报· 2025-06-10 14:01
此次星巴克对星冰乐、冰摇茶、茶拿铁三大非咖系列产品实施降价,最高降幅达6元。调整后,多 款饮品价格进入20元区间。星巴克希望以价换量,打开下午茶市场,并适配下沉市场开店战略。 餐饮连锁专家王冬明指出,咖啡茶饮行业"内卷"已十分严重,星巴克不得不被动卷入竞争。但作为 头部品牌需维持形象,因此选择先对非咖啡产品降价,这是相对体面的价格调整方式。他预判,未 来星巴克很可能会对咖啡产品进行降价。 咖啡茶饮行业"内卷"已十分严重,星巴克不得不被动卷入竞 争。但作为头部品牌需维持形象,因此选择先对非咖啡产品降 价,这是相对体面的价格调整方式。他预判,未来星巴克很可 能会对咖啡产品进行降价。 作者:郑淯心 封图:图虫创意 6月10日是星巴克非咖产品降价的首日,这也是星巴克进入中国25年来首次主动下调产品价格。 早上9点多,北京望京凯德MALL商场尚未正式营业,商场一层的星巴克门店已有不少顾客。工作 人员在询问点单需求时,会主动提及非咖产品降价信息,并帮助顾客累计积分、查看优惠券。 店里一位工作人员说,当天早上客流量不错,点非咖产品的消费者明显增多。她预计下午单量提升 会更显著,通常早上以咖啡类消费为主,下午则是非咖饮品的消 ...
星巴克入华25年首降价,更多调整在路上
Jing Ji Guan Cha Wang· 2025-06-10 13:34
店里一位工作人员说,当天早上客流量不错,点非咖产品的消费者明显增多。她预计下午单量提升会更显著,通常早上以咖啡类消费为主,下午则是非咖饮 品的消费高峰。 此次星巴克对星冰乐、冰摇茶、茶拿铁三大非咖系列产品实施降价,最高降幅达6元。调整后,多款饮品价格进入20元区间。星巴克希望以价换量,打开下 午茶市场,并适配下沉市场开店战略。 餐饮连锁专家王冬明指出,咖啡茶饮行业"内卷"已十分严重,星巴克不得不被动卷入竞争。但作为头部品牌需维持形象,因此选择先对非咖啡产品降价,这 是相对体面的价格调整方式。他预判,未来星巴克很可能会对咖啡产品进行降价。 首次产品直降 6月10日是星巴克非咖产品降价的首日,这也是星巴克进入中国25年来首次主动下调产品价格。 早上9点多,北京望京凯德MALL商场尚未正式营业,商场一层的星巴克门店已有不少顾客。工作人员在询问点单需求时,会主动提及非咖产品降价信息, 并帮助顾客累计积分、查看优惠券。 6月10日,星巴克中国门店的价签迎来历史性变化:星冰乐、冰摇茶、茶拿铁三大系列共10款产品集体降价,以大杯规格计算,消费者平均每杯能省下5元。 这是星巴克入华25年来首次直接下调产品价格,打破以往仅通过 ...
星巴克中国数十款饮品降价:战略调整背后的市场博弈与消费逻辑
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-06-09 15:14
Core Viewpoint - Starbucks China has announced a collective price reduction for several non-coffee beverages starting June 10, with an average price drop of 5 yuan, reaching a minimum price of 23 yuan, marking the first systematic price cut for non-coffee drinks, reflecting significant changes in the Chinese coffee and tea market [1][26] Market Pressure and Consumer Behavior - Structural changes in the consumer demographic are reshaping consumption logic, with a projected 13 million college graduates by 2025 facing limited job opportunities, leading to income disparity and a decline in Starbucks' traditional customer base [3] - Starbucks' average transaction price has declined for eight consecutive quarters, with a 6% drop in same-store sales in Q1 2025 and a drastic reduction in transaction volume growth from 48% in 2023 to just 4% [3] Competitive Landscape - Local brands like Luckin and Kudi are leveraging supply chain efficiency to restructure pricing, with Luckin achieving a stock turnover of 18 days and a single-cup cost of 10.16 yuan, while Starbucks faces higher operational costs due to insufficient local production capacity [5] - Starbucks' same-store average price is expected to drop by 8% in 2024, with comparable transaction volume decreasing by 6%, creating a negative cycle of declining volume and price [5] Brand Positioning and Strategy - The brand's premium image, established through the "third space" model, is deteriorating as new store expansions face rental pressures and reduced foot traffic, leading to a retreat from prime locations [6] - Starbucks' pricing strategy has shifted to a dual-track approach, maintaining a premium price range of 30-40 yuan for coffee while offering non-coffee drinks at 23-35 yuan to attract a broader market [11] Cost Management and Supply Chain - Starbucks is working on localizing its supply chain to reduce costs, achieving over 90% local sourcing, but still faces a 30% higher single-cup cost compared to competitors [12] - The company plans to reduce store sizes and increase the use of self-service kiosks to lower operational costs [12] Short-term Gains and Long-term Risks - Initial results from the price reduction show a 30% increase in non-coffee drink sales in the first week, with a significant rise in younger consumers, but the loyalty of price-sensitive customers remains low [15] - The price cut has led to a loss of some high-end customers, with 22% of Starbucks Gold Card members feeling the brand has lost its premium appeal [16] Profitability Challenges - Following the price reduction, Starbucks' operating profit margin has decreased from 18% to 15%, nearing the breakeven point, necessitating strategies to enhance member spending and increase sales of high-margin products [19] - Future strategies include transforming stores into community spaces and deploying AI for inventory management to improve operational efficiency [20] Cultural and Product Localization - Starbucks is introducing localized products and plans to collaborate with cultural heritage IPs to enhance brand appeal while being cautious of over-localization that may dilute brand identity [23]