Report Industry Investment Rating - Unilateral: Neutral; Inter - period: 01 - 05 reverse spread; Inter - variety: None [4] Core View - Recently, the cost - end oil price has rebounded, and the external propane price has risen strongly. With the support of macro - sentiment, polyolefins have rebounded slightly with fluctuations. Some upstream petrochemical plants have shut down for maintenance, and the capacity utilization rate has decreased slightly. There is an expectation of new capacity from ExxonMobil, and Daxie Petrochemical is continuously increasing production, so the supply is still under pressure. The downstream demand is in the "Golden September" seasonal improvement stage, with the overall downstream factory operating rate rising slightly. However, the downstream mainly maintains rigid procurement, and the demand fulfillment rate is still slow. PP production profit has shrunk significantly, and the cost - end support is strong [3] Summary by Related Catalogs Market News and Important Data - **Price and Basis**: L main contract closed at 7,245 yuan/ton (+11), PP main contract at 6,982 yuan/ton (+12). LL North China spot was 7,200 yuan/ton (+0), LL East China spot was 7,170 yuan/ton (+0), PP East China spot was 6,780 yuan/ton (+0). LL North China basis was - 45 yuan/ton (-11), LL East China basis was - 75 yuan/ton (-11), and PP East China basis was - 202 yuan/ton (-12) [2] - **Upstream Supply**: PE operating rate was 78.0% (-2.5%), PP operating rate was 76.8% (-3.1%) [2] - **Production Profit**: PE oil - based production profit was 170.9 yuan/ton (-70.8), PP oil - based production profit was - 459.1 yuan/ton (-70.8), and PDH - based PP production profit was - 303.0 yuan/ton (-12.1) [2] - **Import and Export**: LL import profit was - 92.1 yuan/ton (+10.2), PP import profit was - 482.1 yuan/ton (-9.8), and PP export profit was 29.1 US dollars/ton (+1.2) [2] - **Downstream Demand**: PE downstream agricultural film operating rate was 24.1% (+3.9%), PE downstream packaging film operating rate was 51.3% (+0.8%), PP downstream plastic weaving operating rate was 43.1% (+0.4%), and PP downstream BOPP film operating rate was 61.6% (+0.1%) [2] Market Analysis - Cost - end factors and macro - sentiment have driven polyolefins to rebound slightly. Supply is under pressure due to potential new capacity and production increases. Downstream demand is in a seasonal improvement stage, but the demand fulfillment is slow, and PP cost - end support is strong [3] Strategy - Unilateral strategy is neutral; inter - period strategy is 01 - 05 reverse spread; no inter - variety strategy [4]

Core Viewpoint - The polypropylene (PP) market has shown signs of stabilization in a weak overall trend since September, with futures contracts experiencing a rebound after hitting a three-month low [1] Supply and Demand Analysis - The supply-side support for the PP market is weakening, although maintenance activities are providing some support; however, the expected rebound in prices may be limited [1] - As of mid-September, there has been a noticeable increase in unplanned maintenance of PP facilities, with nearly 40 plants currently offline, affecting over 9 million tons of capacity [1] - By September 15, the domestic PP plant shutdown ratio rose to 20.74%, an increase of 7.82 percentage points from the beginning of the month, indicating some relief in supply-side pressure [1] Future Market Outlook - There are no new capacity additions planned for PP in the latter half of September, but several facilities, including those from Shenhua Xinjiang, Daqing Refining, and Zhongjing Petrochemical, are expected to restart, which may reduce the intensity of maintenance activities [1] - Considering the need for inventory reduction before the National Day holiday, the supply-side support for the PP market may weaken, leading to a limited duration for any short-term price rebound [1]

Report Industry Investment Rating - The trend strength of LLDPE is rated as 1, indicating a "偏强" (relatively strong) outlook, with a range of [-2, 2] where -2 is most bearish and 2 is most bullish [3] Report's Core View - LLDPE is expected to be short - term strong and mid - term range - bound. The short - term strength is due to macro sentiment, improving demand, and relatively low inventory. The mid - term may see a range - bound situation considering factors like supply changes [1][2] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Fundamental Tracking - **Futures Data**: The L2601 contract had a closing price of 7232, a daily increase of 0.81%, trading volume of 264,026, and a decrease in open interest of 6135 [1] - **Basis and Spread**: The 01 contract basis was - 152 (previous day: - 89), and the 01 - 05 contract spread was - 20 (previous day: - 12) [1] - **Spot Prices**: In the North China region, the price was 7080 yuan/ton (unchanged); in the East China region, it was 7160 yuan/ton (up from 7140); in the South China region, it was 7300 yuan/ton (unchanged) [1] Spot News - LLDPE market prices had small fluctuations of 10 - 50 yuan/ton. Linear futures rose, but while coal - chemical enterprises raised prices, some prices of Sinopec and PetroChina were lowered. Downstream demand was slow, leading to cautious purchasing and poor sales, and no obvious increase in the spot market [1] Market Condition Analysis - Affected by macro sentiment, PE is short - term strong. Demand for PE is improving as the agricultural film industry starts seasonal stockpiling. In September, the maintenance volume is similar to August, and the maintenance of Zhenhai Refining & Chemical at the end of September may relieve the supply pressure of LLDPE in the East China region. Polyethylene social inventory is lower year - on - year, with a slight reduction this week and overall low pressure [2]

2012 31 | 1 | PVC | PVC | 2 | PVC | | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 79.94% | 2.81% | 1.40% | 79.39% | 2.66% | 1.09% | 81.31% | 3.18% | 2.10% | 3 | PVC | 5.10 | 0.68 | | 1 | 2 | PVC | 37.61% | 4.13% | 1.77% | 3 | PVC | | | | | | | 0.61% | 23 | 39% | 4 | PVC | 40.88% | PVC | 5 | 2025 | 7 | PVC | | | | 33.06 | 606 | / | 1-7 | 229.10 | 26.17% | 112.82% | 56.91% | PVC | | | | | | 1 | 9 | 11 | PVC | 1.75% | 93.42 | 8.63% | 87.25 | 2.33% | 6.56% | | ...

市场情绪转弱，盘面继续走弱 中泰期货聚乙烯产业链周报 2025年9月14日 姓名：芦瑞 从业资格号：F3013255 交易咨询从业证书号：Z0013570 联系电话： 18888368717 公司地址：济南市市中区经七路86号证券大厦15、16层 客服电话：400-618-6767 公司网址：www.ztqh.com 投资咨询资格号：证监许可[2012]112 交易咨询资格证号（证监许可〔2012〕112） 目录 1 近期市场主要矛盾 4 总结及展望 3 基差及价差 2 聚乙烯产业情况 请务必阅读正文之后的声明部分 聚乙烯市场情况 投资咨询资格号：证监许可[2012]112 交易咨询资格证号（证监许可〔2012〕112） 1、聚乙烯综述 | | | 上 | 周 | 本 | 周 | | 周环比 | | 下 | 周 | 下下周 | | 综 述 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 产 量 （万吨） | 国产量 检修损失量 | 63 . | 25 | 61 . | 28 | ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core View of the Report - Currently, the self - driving force of PE is still weak. It is in a pattern of decreasing supply and increasing demand, but the slow recovery of downstream demand limits the upward push on PE. It is expected to be in a volatile pattern, waiting for a significant demand recovery signal on the spot side to drive PE up [3]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Price Forecast and Hedging Strategy - The monthly price range forecast for polyethylene is 7150 - 7400 yuan/ton, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 6.09% and a 3 - year historical percentile of 0.8% [2]. - For inventory management with high finished - product inventory, it is recommended to short plastic futures (L2601) with a 25% hedging ratio at 7300 - 7350 yuan/ton and sell call options (L2601C7400) with a 50% hedging ratio at 70 - 100 [2]. - For procurement management with low standing inventory, it is recommended to buy plastic futures (L2601) with a 50% hedging ratio at 7150 - 7200 yuan/ton and sell put options (L2601P7100) with a 75% hedging ratio at 70 - 100 [2]. Core Contradiction - Although PE supply is expected to decrease in September due to high - volume device maintenance and demand is expected to increase as downstream moves from the off - season to the peak season, the slow recovery of demand and weak base - strengthening trend limit the upward push on PE [3]. 利多 and 利空 Factors - **Liduo Factors**: Demand is expected to improve month - on - month; the commissioning of ExxonMobil's 500,000 - ton LDPE new device is expected to be postponed; there are still many device overhauls in September, leading to a de - stocking pattern in the balance sheet [4]. - **Likong Factors**: The current demand recovery speed is slow; the current LLDPE inventory is at a high level [5]. Daily Data Table - **Futures Prices and Spreads**: Plastic main base - spread was - 16 yuan/ton on September 10, 2025, with a daily change of 3 yuan/ton and a weekly change of - 14 yuan/ton. L01, L05, and L09 contracts had different price changes [6]. - **Spot Prices and Regional Spreads**: Prices in North China, East China, and South China showed different trends, and regional spreads also changed [8]. - **Non - standard and Standard Product Spreads**: Spreads between different HDPE products and LLDPE film, as well as LDPE film and LLDPE film, had different changes [8]. - **Upstream Prices and Processing Profits**: Brent crude oil price, US ethane price, coal price, and methanol price had different trends, and processing profits of different PE production methods also changed [8].

Report Industry Investment Rating - The report does not provide an industry investment rating. Core Viewpoint - The polyolefin market continued to decline, with weak demand. The market returned to fundamental trading. The overall operating rate increased as previously shut - down plants resumed operations and there were few planned shutdowns. New production capacity was continuously released, leading to a significant increase in supply. The upstream inventory was transferred downstream, with a slight decrease in producers' inventory and an increase in intermediate - link inventory. The cost - side support was weak, while the demand side was slowly rising as it entered the seasonal demand transition period [3]. Summary by Directory I. Polyolefin Basis Structure - Figures related to this section include the plastic futures main contract trend, LL East China - main contract basis, polypropylene futures main contract trend, and PP East China - main contract basis [10][13] II. Production Profit and Operating Rate - For PE, the operating rate was 80.5% (+1.9%), and the oil - based production profit was 218.2 yuan/ton (+111.1). For PP, the operating rate was 79.9% (-0.3%), the oil - based production profit was - 361.8 yuan/ton (+111.1), and the PDH - based production profit was - 253.7 yuan/ton (-102.2) [1][21][27] III. Polyolefin Non - Standard Price Difference - This section involves price differences such as HD injection - LL East China, HD blow molding - LL East China, etc. [32][39][40] IV. Polyolefin Import and Export Profits - LL import profit was - 246.2 yuan/ton (+34.0), PP import profit was - 586.2 yuan/ton (+14.0), and PP export profit was 35.9 US dollars/ton (+3.6) [1] V. Polyolefin Downstream Operating Rate and Downstream Profits - PE downstream agricultural film operating rate was 20.2% (+2.7%), PE downstream packaging film operating rate was 50.5% (+0.9%), PP downstream woven bag operating rate was 42.7% (+0.4%), and PP downstream BOPP film operating rate was 61.4% (+1.0) [2] VI. Polyolefin Inventory - The report does not provide specific inventory data analysis, but mentions that upstream inventory was transferred downstream, with a slight decrease in producers' inventory and an increase in intermediate - link inventory [3] Strategies - Unilateral: Neutral - Inter - period: Reverse spread of 01 - 05 - Cross - variety: Long L - P [4]

Group 1: Methanol and Polyolefins Overall - The report is a methanol polyolefins morning report from the energy and chemical team of the research center on September 5, 2025 [1][2] Group 2: Methanol Market - The trading logic is that port pressure is transmitted to the inland. The inland has seasonal stocking demand and new device stocking increment from Lianhong, but ports will cause continuous backflow impact. The current price is based on inland prices, and the inland situation is crucial later [2] - Xingxing is expected to start operation in early September, but inventory is still accumulating. Backflow can relieve port pressure but will affect inland valuation. Currently, valuation and inventory are average, and the driving force is weak. It's necessary to wait before bottom - fishing [2] - Import variables include India's purchase of Iranian products and unplanned maintenance [2] Group 3: Polyethylene Market - Two - oil inventory is neutral year - on - year. Upstream two - oil and coal chemical industries are destocking, social inventory is flat. Downstream raw material and finished product inventories are neutral. Overall inventory is neutral. The 09 basis is about - 110 in North China and - 50 in East China [3] - External markets in Europe, America, and Southeast Asia are stable. Import profit is around - 200 with no further increment for now. Non - standard HD injection molding prices are stable, other spreads are volatile, and LD is weakening [3] - September maintenance is flat compared to the previous month. Recently, domestic linear production has decreased month - on - month. Attention should be paid to LL - HD conversion and US quotations. New device pressure in 2025 is large, and the commissioning of new devices should be monitored [3] Group 4: Polypropylene Market - Polypropylene upstream two - oil and mid - stream are destocking. In terms of valuation, the basis is - 60, non - standard spreads are neutral, and import profit is around - 700. Exports have been good this year [3] - Non - standard spreads are neutral. European and American markets are stable. PDH profit is around - 400, propylene is volatile, and powder production start - up is stable. Drawstring production scheduling is neutral [3] - Future supply is expected to increase slightly month - on - month. Current downstream orders are average, and raw material and finished product inventories are neutral. Under the background of over - capacity, the 01 contract is expected to have a slightly excessive supply pressure. If exports continue to increase or there are many PDH device maintenance, the supply pressure can be alleviated to a neutral level [3] Group 5: PVC Market - The basis of 01 contract is maintained at - 270, and the factory - delivery basis is - 480. Downstream start - up is seasonally weak, and the willingness to hold goods at low prices is strong. Mid - and upstream inventories are continuously accumulating [3] - Summer seasonal maintenance of northwest devices has a load center between the spring maintenance and the high production in Q1. Pay attention to production commissioning and export continuity in Q4. Near - term export orders have slightly declined [3] - Coal sentiment is positive, blue - carbon cost is stable, and calcium carbide profit is under pressure due to PVC maintenance. The counter - offer for caustic soda exports is FOB380. Pay attention to whether subsequent export orders can support high - level caustic soda. PVC comprehensive profit is - 100 [3] - Currently, the static inventory contradiction is accumulating slowly, cost is stable, downstream performance is average, and the macro situation is neutral. Pay attention to exports, coal prices, commercial housing sales, terminal orders, and start - up [3]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - The polyolefin market is mainly in a narrow - range oscillation. The overall operating rate has increased due to the resumption of previously shut - down units and fewer planned shutdowns. New production capacity is continuously being released, leading to a significant increase in supply. There is pressure on the supply side as upstream inventory is transferred downstream, with a slight decrease in producers' inventory and an increase in mid - stream inventory. The cost - side support is weak, while the demand side is slowly rising but lacks new orders in the short term [3] Summary by Directory 1. Polyolefin Basis Structure - Figures related to the plastic futures main contract trend and the LL East China - main contract basis are presented, as well as those for the polypropylene futures main contract trend and the PP East China - main contract basis [9][12] 2. Production Profit and Operating Rate - PE operating rate is 78.7% (+0.0%), and PP operating rate is 80.2% (+2.0%). PE oil - based production profit is 202.8 yuan/ton (- 112.4), PP oil - based production profit is - 377.2 yuan/ton (- 112.4), and PDH - based PP production profit is - 76.1 yuan/ton (- 78.3) [1] 3. Polyolefin Non - Standard Price Spread - Figures show the price differences between HD injection - LL East China, HD blow - molding - LL East China, HD film - LL East China, LD East China - LL, PP low - melt copolymer - drawn East China, and PP homopolymer injection - drawn East China [29][36][37] 4. Polyolefin Import and Export Profits - LL import profit is - 260.1 yuan/ton (- 110.1), PP import profit is - 600.1 yuan/ton (- 50.1), and PP export profit is 32.4 US dollars/ton (+6.2) [1] 5. Polyolefin Downstream Operating Rate and Downstream Profits - PE downstream agricultural film operating rate is 17.5% (+2.9%), PE downstream packaging film operating rate is 49.6% (- 0.3%), PP downstream plastic weaving operating rate is 42.3% (+0.3%), and PP downstream BOPP film operating rate is 60.4% (- 0.3%) [2] 6. Polyolefin Inventory - Upstream inventory is transferred downstream, with a slight decrease in producers' inventory and an increase in mid - stream inventory, indicating certain pressure on the supply side [3] Strategies - Unilateral: Neutral; - Inter - period: 01 - 05 reverse spread; - Inter - variety: Long L - P [4]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - The polyolefin market shows a narrow - range downward trend. The restart of previously overhauled devices and new capacity releases lead to an obvious increase in supply. The supply side has certain pressure as upstream inventory transfers downstream, with a slight decrease in producers' inventory and an increase in mid - stream inventory. The cost - side support is weak, and the demand side is slowly rising but lacks new orders in the short term, resulting in limited upward - driving force [3] Summary by Directory 1. Polyolefin Basis Structure - The closing price of the L main contract is 7270 yuan/ton (-17), and the closing price of the PP main contract is 6965 yuan/ton (-9). The LL North China spot price is 7180 yuan/ton (-50), the LL East China spot price is 7190 yuan/ton (-110), and the PP East China spot price is 6850 yuan/ton (-50). The LL North China basis is -90 yuan/ton (-33), the LL East China basis is -80 yuan/ton (-93), and the PP East China basis is -115 yuan/ton (-41) [1] 2. Production Profit and Operating Rate - PE operating rate is 78.7% (+0.0%), and PP operating rate is 80.2% (+2.0%). PE oil - based production profit is 315.2 yuan/ton (+17.8), PP oil - based production profit is -324.8 yuan/ton (+17.8), and PDH - based PP production profit is 2.2 yuan/ton (-59.9) [1] 3. Polyolefin Non - Standard Price Difference - Not elaborated in the content 4. Polyolefin Import and Export Profit - LL import profit is -150.0 yuan/ton (-20.6), PP import profit is -550.0 yuan/ton (-50.6), and PP export profit is 26.2 US dollars/ton (+6.3) [2] 5. Polyolefin Downstream Operating Rate and Downstream Profit - PE downstream agricultural film operating rate is 17.5% (+2.9%), PE downstream packaging film operating rate is 49.6% (-0.3%), PP downstream plastic weaving operating rate is 42.3% (+0.3%), and PP downstream BOPP film operating rate is 60.4% (-0.3%) [2] 6. Polyolefin Inventory - Upstream inventory transfers downstream, producers' inventory decreases slightly, and mid - stream inventory accumulates [3] Strategies - Unilateral: Neutral; - Inter - period: 01 - 05 reverse spread; - Inter - variety: Long L - P [4]