Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. Core Viewpoints - PE continues its weak pattern due to high supply, limited demand support from downstream sectors like agricultural film, and a lack of significant macro - level boosts. The cost support from oil - based production is weakening, and inventory clearance under high supply remains challenging [2]. - PP remains in a weak pattern in the short term, with its upward movement suppressed by supply - demand factors and weak cost support. However, as PDH profits are currently low, attention should be paid to upstream device production cut dynamics and macro trends [3]. Summary by Directory 1. Polyolefin Basis Structure - The report presents figures related to the plastic main contract, LL East China basis, polypropylene main contract, and PP East China basis [8][9] 2. Production Profit and Operating Rate - PE production profit from crude oil and PE capacity utilization are presented. The PE operating rate is 82.6% (+1.7%), and the PE oil - based production profit is 288.7 yuan/ton (+41.3) [17][1][20] - PP production profit from crude oil, PDH - based PP production profit, polypropylene capacity utilization, and PP weekly output are shown. The PP operating rate is 77.8% (+0.7%), the PP oil - based production profit is - 351.3 yuan/ton (+41.3), and the PDH - based PP production profit is - 121.6 yuan/ton (-46.7) [20][1][21] 3. Polyolefin Non - Standard Price Difference - Figures related to HD injection - LL East China, HD hollow - LL East China, HD film - LL East China, and LD East China - LL are provided [30][33] 4. Polyolefin Import and Export Profits - LL import profit, LL export profit, and various price differences related to LL import and export are presented. The LL import profit is - 12.7 yuan/ton (+57.1) [45][1][53] - PP import profit, PP export profit (to Southeast Asia), and various price differences related to PP import and export are shown. The PP import profit is - 284.1 yuan/ton (+34.1), and the PP export profit is - 7.0 dollars/ton (+1.1) [60][1][52] 5. Polyolefin Downstream Operating Rate and Downstream Profits - PE downstream agricultural film operating rate, packaging film operating rate, and PP downstream plastic weaving operating rate, BOPP film operating rate, and injection molding operating rate are presented. The PE downstream agricultural film operating rate is 50.0% (+0.4%), the PE downstream packaging film operating rate is 50.8% (-0.5%), the PP downstream plastic weaving operating rate is 44.5% (+0.3%), and the PP downstream BOPP film operating rate is 62.5% (+0.9%) [66][1][65] - PP downstream plastic weaving production profit and BOPP production profit are also shown [72] 6. Polyolefin Inventory - Figures related to PE oil - based enterprise inventory, PE coal - chemical enterprise inventory, PE trader inventory, and PE port inventory are provided [77][80] - PP oil - based enterprise inventory, PP coal - chemical enterprise inventory, PP trader inventory, and PP port inventory are presented [86][83] Strategies - Unilateral: Cautiously short LLDPE and PP at high prices [4] - Inter - period: Conduct reverse arbitrage on L01 - 05 and PP01 - 05 at high prices [4] - Inter - variety: No strategy provided [4]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core Views - For methanol, the current situation remains poor, with Iranian plant shutdowns slower than expected, high imports likely in November, difficult resolution of the 01 contract contradictions, expected resolution of port sanctions before the end of gas restrictions, difficult inventory reduction, limited upward momentum for methanol, and the downward space depending on the inland situation. Recent coal price increases do not affect profits [1] - For polyethylene, overall inventory is neutral, the 09 contract basis is around -110 in North China and -50 in East China, external markets in Europe, America, and Southeast Asia are stable, import profit is around -200 with no further increase for now, non - standard HD injection molding prices are stable, other price differences are volatile, LD is weakening, domestic linear production has decreased recently, and attention should be paid to LL - HD conversion and new device commissioning [6] - For PP, upstream and mid - stream inventories are decreasing, the basis is -60, non - standard price differences are neutral, import profit is around -700, export is good, PDH profit is around -400, propylene price is volatile, powder material operation rate is stable,拉丝 production ratio is neutral, future supply is expected to increase slightly, downstream orders are average, and attention should be paid to export volume and PDH device maintenance [6] - For PVC, the basis is maintained at 01 - 270, factory - delivery basis is -480, downstream operation rate is seasonally weakening, low - price inventory holding willingness is strong, mid - and upstream inventories are continuously accumulating, attention should be paid to new device commissioning and export sustainability in Q4, recent export orders have slightly decreased, coal sentiment is positive, and attention should be paid to export, coal price, housing sales, terminal orders, and operation rate [6] Group 3: Summary by Commodity Methanol - From October 30 to November 5, 2025, the power coal futures price remained at 801, while the prices of methanol in various regions showed different degrees of decline. The daily change on November 5 showed a 5 - unit increase in the Lunan converted - to - futures price and a 15 - unit increase in the main contract basis [1] Polyethylene (PE) - From October 30 to November 5, 2025, the price of Northeast Asian ethylene remained at 740 on some days, and the prices of various PE products in different regions generally declined. The daily change on November 5 showed a 20 - unit decrease in the North China LL price and a 65 - unit decrease in the main futures price, with a 60 - unit increase in the basis [6] Polypropylene (PP) - From October 30 to November 5, 2025, the prices of Shandong propylene and Northeast Asian propylene decreased, and the prices of various PP products in different regions also declined. The daily change on November 5 showed an 80 - unit decrease in the Shandong propylene price and a 69 - unit decrease in the main futures price [6] Polyvinyl Chloride (PVC) - From October 30 to November 5, 2025, the price of Northwest calcium carbide decreased from 2500 to 2400, and the prices of various PVC products in different regions also declined. The daily change on November 5 showed a 50 - unit decrease in the Northwest calcium carbide price and a 30 - unit decrease in the calcium - carbide - based East China PVC price, with a 10 - unit increase in the basis [6]

截至10月30日，中国PVC生产企业厂库库存可产天数在5.65天，环比增加0.89%，上游开工陆续恢复， 叠加内外贸销售一般，短期在库略增加。 【PVC行情展望】 pvc供大于求的矛盾观点未有改善。需求端，银十传统旺季的提振力度不及预期，房地产等主要下游领 域表现依然疲软，型材、管材等制品企业新增订单有限，多以刚需采购为主，难以对市场形成持续支 撑。整体来看，PVC在供需压力下价格下跌。11-12月份供应端来自新增产能的冲击依然存在，浙江嘉 化30万吨/年、甘肃耀望30万吨/年装置预计量产，市场货源继续增加，进口量预计波动有限，且按照惯 例，11、12月份也是PVC行业开工较高的月份，计划性检修基本结束，PVC供应压力仍将持续；需求 端，11月至次年1月处于传统需求淡季，北方进入冬季室外施工逐渐减少，整体地产需求减量仍形成利 空影响。供需仍处过剩格局，价格难言乐观，虽然绝对价格偏低但难以形成向上驱动，预计延续底部偏 弱震荡，交易思路反弹短空操作。 免责声明：本报告中的信息均来源于被广发期货有限公司认为可靠的已公开资料，但广发期货对这些信 息的准确性及完整性不作任何保证。在任何情况下，报告内容仅供参考，报告中的 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core View of the Report The report anticipates that polyolefins will experience weak and volatile trends in the near term. Although the previous cost increase and macro - economic improvement have driven the rebound of polyolefins, their own upward momentum is insufficient. Currently, the peak - season demand is below expectations, and there is a lack of large - scale centralized procurement in the market. Additionally, the anti - involution policies for the polyolefin industry have not been implemented yet [3]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs a. Market Trend - Plastic and PP prices first rose and then declined [4]. b. Production Rate - Plastic production rate dropped by 1.5 percentage points to around 85%, at a neutral level. New maintenance devices such as those in Zhongyuan Petrochemical's full - density production were added [15]. - PP production rate remained at around 80%, at a neutral - low level. New maintenance devices like those in CNOOC Daxie's new first - line were added, while some devices such as Yulong Petrochemical's second - line restarted [15]. c. Downstream Production Rate - As of the week ending October 31, PE downstream production rate decreased by 0.38 percentage points to 45.37% week - on - week. Although the agricultural film sector is in the peak season with increasing orders and raw material inventory, reaching a neutral level in recent years, packaging film orders decreased slightly, and the overall PE downstream production rate is still at a relatively low level in the same period in recent years [21]. - As of the week ending October 31, PP downstream production rate increased by 0.24 percentage points to 52.61% week - on - week, at a relatively low level in the same period over the years. However, the plastic - weaving production rate decreased by 0.2 percentage points to 44.2%, and plastic - weaving orders decreased slightly compared with the previous week and were slightly lower than the same period last year [21]. d. Basis - Spot prices were stable, while futures prices declined. The basis of the 01 contract rose to 201 yuan/ton, at a neutral - low level [24]. e. Inventory - On Friday, the early petrochemical inventory decreased by 20,000 tons week - on - week to 675,000 tons, 45,000 tons lower than the same period last year. Near the end of the month, petrochemical inventory reduction accelerated slightly, and the current petrochemical inventory is at a neutral level in the same period in recent years [28]. f. Cost and New Capacity - Recently, the market digested the news of Russian oil sanctions. The meeting between Chinese and US leaders basically met market expectations, and the relationship between the two countries did not change fundamentally. OPEC+ decided to increase production by 137,000 barrels per day in December but suspend production increase in the first quarter of next year. Crude oil prices fluctuated within a narrow range [3]. - New production capacity includes the trial operation of ExxonMobil (Huizhou)'s 500,000 - ton/year LDPE and the recent commissioning of PetroChina Guangxi Petrochemical's 800,000 - ton/year PE and 400,000 - ton/year PP [3].

发布时间：2025年11月03日 投资有风险，入市需谨慎，本公司具备期货交易咨询业务资格，请务必阅读最后一页免责声明。 冠通期货研究报告 --PVC周报 研究咨询部苏妙达 执业资格证号：F03104403/Z0018167 分析师苏妙达：F03104403/Z0018167 投资有风险，入市需谨慎。 行情分析 上游西北地区电石价格下跌25元/吨。目前供应端，PVC开工率环比增加1.69个百分点至78.26%，PVC开工率有所增加，仍处于 近年同期偏高水平。PVC下游开工率小幅提升，超过过去两年同期，只是仍是偏低水平。印度将BIS政策再次延期六个月至2025年12 月24日执行，中国台湾台塑11月份报价下调30-40美元/吨，8月14日，印度公示最新的进口PVC反倾销税，其中中国大陆地区上调50 美元/吨左右，四季度中国PVC出口预期减弱。不过，近期出口价格下降后，反倾销税还未执行，9月出口仍较好，目前出口签单暂 未明显走弱。上周社会库存略有减少，目前仍偏高，库存压力仍然较大。2025年1-9月份，房地产仍在调整阶段，投资、新开工、 竣工面积同比降幅仍较大，投资、销售、施工等同比增速进一步下降。30大中城市商品 ...

研究报告 聚烯烃月报 11 月聚丙烯基本面稍好，但关注重点仍在宏观面 华龙期货投资咨询部 期货从业资格证号：F0295717 投资咨询资格证号：Z0011567 电话：15693075965 邮箱：2463494881@qq.com 本报告中所有观点仅供参 考，请投资者务必阅读正文之后 的免责声明。 摘要： 【行情复盘】 投资咨询业务资格： 证监许可【2012】1087 号 能化研究员：宋鹏 聚乙烯方面，10 聚乙烯进口量环比上升 7.61%，国内检修装 置减少，总供应显著增加 6.88%至 398.51 万吨；需求方面跟进不 足，传统"银十"旺季效应减弱，下游工厂开工率虽维持高位， 但新单增长乏力，下游整体开工率环比增幅 2.35%，但农膜开工 缓慢抬升，包装膜需求受电商节提振有限。综合看，受供应压力 及需求抬升有限影响，聚乙烯价格重心下移。 聚丙烯方面，10 月聚丙烯跌后弱反弹，节后归来供需依旧疲 软，并且节后库存累积，市场承压快速下行。临近月底，中美贸 易态度缓和对市场情绪带来一定修复，市场寄希望于四中全会政 策利好，同时临时检修企业增多缓和市场供需矛盾，且新增扩能 接近尾声，市场供需略有改善，市场弱反 ...

供需压力仍大，继续偏弱震荡 中泰期货聚丙烯产业链周报 2025年11月02日 1 近期市场主要矛盾 4 总结及展望 3 聚丙烯基差价差 2 聚丙烯供需情况 请务必阅读正文之后的声明部分 聚丙烯市场情况 投资咨询资格号：证监许可[2012]112 交易咨询资格证号（证监许可〔2012〕112） 1、聚丙烯综述 姓名：芦瑞 从业资格号：F3013255 交易咨询从业证书号：Z0013570 联系电话： 18888368717 客服电话：400-618-6767 公司网址：www.ztqh.com 投资咨询资格号：证监许可[2012]112 交易咨询资格证号（证监许可〔2012〕112） 目录 | | | 上周 | 本周 | 周环比 | 下周 | 下下周 | 综述 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 国产量 | 77.76 | 78.92 | 1.15 | 81.39 | 83.07 | 本周检修装置较少，产量小幅度增 加，未来两周装置检修减少，产量可 | | 产量 | | | | | | | 能继续增加。 | | （万吨） | 检修损失量 ...

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating - For L and PP, the rating is neutral [4]. 2. Core View - The downstream demand for polyolefins is still slowly increasing, and both PE and PP are under pressure. The short - term trends of PE and PP are mainly influenced by the cost side. The supply of both is under pressure, and the demand is slowly recovering. The price of PE is in short - term shock consolidation, and the price of PP continues to be weak [2][3]. 3. Section Summaries Market News and Important Data - **Price and Basis**: L main contract closed at 6,968 yuan/ton (-41), PP main contract at 6,651 yuan/ton (-34). LL North China spot was 6,950 yuan/ton (-10), LL East China spot 7,060 yuan/ton (+0), PP East China spot 6,580 yuan/ton (-30). LL North China basis was -18 yuan/ton (+31), LL East China basis 92 yuan/ton (+41), PP East China basis -71 yuan/ton (+4) [2]. - **Upstream Supply**: PE开工率 was 80.9% (-0.6%), PP开工率 was 77.1% (+1.1%) [2]. - **Production Profit**: PE oil - based production profit was 343.2 yuan/ton (-39.1), PP oil - based production profit was -346.8 yuan/ton (-39.1), PDH - based PP production profit was 45.6 yuan/ton (-8.9) [2]. - **Imports and Exports**: LL import profit was 69.8 yuan/ton (+86.1), PP import profit was -294.7 yuan/ton (+0.7), PP export profit was -21.7 dollars/ton (-5.1) [2]. - **Downstream Demand**: PE downstream agricultural film开工率 was 49.5% (+2.4%), PE downstream packaging film开工率 was 51.3% (-1.3%), PP downstream plastic weaving开工率 was 44.2% (-0.2%), PP downstream BOPP film开工率 was 61.6% (+0.2%) [2]. Market Analysis - **PE**: OPEC+ has a production increase plan, the supply surplus expectation is strengthened, and the demand is expected to remain weak. The cost support of PE is weakened. The supply is expected to increase, and the downstream demand is still limited. The PE price is in short - term shock consolidation, and the upside space may be limited [3]. - **PP**: The oil - based cost support is weakened, but the supply - demand contradiction still exists. The supply pressure continues, and the demand is slowly recovering. The price of PP continues to be weak [3]. Strategy - **Unilateral**: Neutral for L and PP [4]. - **Inter - delivery Spread**: L01 - L05 reverse spread; PP01 - PP05 reverse spread [4]. - **Inter - commodity Spread**: None [4].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Report's Core View - Methanol: The current situation remains poor. Iran's plant shutdown is slower than expected, and high imports are expected in November. The contradiction in the 01 contract is difficult to resolve. The port sanctions issue is expected to be resolved before the end of gas restrictions, and inventory reduction is difficult. Methanol has limited upward momentum, and the downward space depends on the inland market. Although coal prices have strengthened recently, it has no impact on profits [1]. - Polyethylene: The inventory of Sinopec and PetroChina is neutral year - on - year. Upstream Sinopec and PetroChina and coal - chemical enterprises are reducing inventory, while social inventory remains flat. Downstream raw material and finished - product inventories are neutral. Overall inventory is neutral. The 09 contract basis is around - 110 in North China and - 50 in East China. The import profit is around - 200 with no further increase for now. The price of non - standard HD injection molding is stable, and other price differentials are fluctuating. LD is weakening. Domestic linear production has decreased recently. Attention should be paid to the LL - HD conversion and US quotes. The pressure from new plants in 2025 is significant [5]. - Polypropylene: The upstream and mid - stream of polypropylene are reducing inventory. In terms of valuation, the basis is - 60, the non - standard price differential is neutral, and the import profit is around - 700. Exports have been good this year. The non - standard price differential is neutral. The PDH profit is around - 400, propylene is fluctuating, and the powder production start - up rate is stable. The拉丝 production ratio is neutral. Future supply is expected to increase slightly. Downstream orders are average, and raw material and finished - product inventories are neutral. Under the background of over - capacity, the 01 contract is expected to face moderate to excessive pressure. If exports continue to increase or there are many PDH plant overhauls, the supply pressure can be alleviated to a neutral level [5]. - PVC: The basis remains at 01 - 270, and the factory - pickup basis is - 480. Downstream operating rates are seasonally weakening, and the willingness to hold goods at low prices is strong. Mid - and upstream inventories are continuously accumulating. In summer, Northwest plants have seasonal overhauls, and the load center is between the spring overhaul and the high production in Q1. Attention should be paid to the commissioning of new plants and the sustainability of exports in Q4. Recent export orders have declined slightly. Coal sentiment is positive, the cost of semi - coke is stable, and the profit of calcium carbide is under pressure due to PVC overhauls. The FOB price of caustic soda exports is 380. PVC comprehensive profit is - 100. Currently, the static inventory contradiction is accumulating slowly, costs are stable, downstream performance is average, and the macro - environment is neutral. Attention should be paid to exports, coal prices, commercial housing sales, terminal orders, and operating rates [5]. 3. Summary by Commodity Methanol - **Price Data**: From October 22 to October 28, the power coal futures price remained at 801. The Jiangsu spot price decreased from 2252 to 2217, and the South China spot price decreased from 2243 to 2213. The Runan converted price increased from 2470 to 2475 and then decreased to 2450. The Southwest converted price increased from 2490 to 2495. The Hebei converted price remained at 2435, and the Northwest converted price increased from 2620 to 2640 and then decreased to 2638. The CFR China price increased from 262 to 264 and then decreased to 262. The import profit increased from 325 to 326 and then decreased to 324. The main contract basis decreased from - 14 to - 50 [1]. Polyethylene - **Price Data**: From October 22 to October 28, the Northeast Asia ethylene price decreased from 780 to 765. The North China LL price decreased from 6860 to 6880, and the East China LL price increased from 7025 to 7125. The East China LD price increased from 9100 to 9175, and the East China HD price increased from 7200 to 7230. The LL import profit decreased from - 127 to - 156 (estimated based on the trend). The main futures price decreased from 6936 to 6985, and the basis decreased from - 50 to - 100. The two - oil inventory decreased from 78 to 76, and the warehouse receipts decreased from 12964 to 12745 [5]. Polypropylene - **Price Data**: From October 22 to October 28, the Shandong propylene price remained at 6000. The Northeast Asia propylene price decreased from 740 to 730. The East China PP price increased from 6500 to 6560, and the North China PP price decreased from 6468 to 6525. The Shandong powder price remained at 6490, and the East China copolymer price increased from 6820 to 6896. The PP export profit decreased from - 18 to - 29. The main futures price decreased from 6619 to 6657, and the basis decreased from - 100 to - 130. The two - oil inventory decreased from 78 to 76, and the warehouse receipts decreased from 14586 to 14573 [5]. PVC - **Price Data**: From October 22 to October 28, the Northwest calcium carbide price remained at 2500, and the Shandong caustic soda price decreased from 822 to 802. The calcium - carbide - based East China price remained at 4680, and the calcium - carbide - based Northwest price remained at 4300. The import price (CFR China) remained at 690, and the basis remained at - 90 [5].

Group 1: Report Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints - The listing of the monthly average price futures of three chemical products fills the gap in domestic average price risk management tools. The prices of polyethylene and polypropylene are in a bearish pattern, showing a trend of rising first and then falling, and the monthly average price will also show the same trend. PVC monthly average price futures are expected to operate in the bottom range [1][6][8] Group 3: Summary by Directory 1. New Product Listing - The monthly average price futures of linear low - density polyethylene, polyvinyl chloride, and polypropylene will be listed for trading starting at 21:00 on October 28, 2025, with night trading. The listing benchmark price is the settlement price of the corresponding contract on that day [1] 2. Continuation of the Bearish Pattern in Plastics and Polypropylene - The decline in plastic and polypropylene futures prices is driven by three factors: weak cost support, new supply capacity release, and insufficient demand. The prices have been in a downward trend since late November and early December 2024, with a short - term rebound in the middle. In the fourth quarter, the supply - demand pressure of polyethylene and polypropylene is difficult to ease, and the prices are expected to rise first and then fall. The recommended strategies include short - selling at high levels, inter - period arbitrage (long L2602F and short L2604F; long PP2602F and short PP2604F), and different delivery method arbitrage (long L2602F and short L2602; long PP2602F and short PP2602) [3][4][6] 3. PVC Monthly Average Price Futures May Operate in the Bottom Range - PVC is in a pattern of high supply and low demand, with continuous inventory accumulation and high social inventory. The supply pressure is still large, and the production is expected to increase in the fourth quarter. The domestic demand is insufficient, and the export may face pressure due to anti - dumping policies. It is expected that the monthly average price futures will operate in the bottom range [7][8]