1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core View of the Report - The supply - demand pattern of polyolefins remains unchanged, with a weak trading atmosphere. It is expected that polyolefins will fluctuate weakly in the near term. Due to the possible new capacity of plastics coming into operation this year and the gradual end of the peak season for agricultural films, the L - PP spread is expected to continue to decline [3] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Plastic and PP开工率 (Plastic and PP Operating Rates) - Plastic operating rate dropped 4 percentage points to around 86% due to new maintenance devices such as Qilu Petrochemical LDPE, currently at a neutral level [10] - PP operating rate dropped 2 percentage points to around 83% due to new maintenance devices such as Yulong Petrochemical's fifth line, at a slightly below - neutral level [10] 3.2 Plastic and PP下游开工率 (Plastic and PP Downstream Operating Rates) - As of the week of December 19, PE downstream operating rate decreased by 0.55 percentage points to 42.45%. Agricultural film is gradually exiting the peak season, and orders continue to decline. The overall PE downstream operating rate is still at a relatively low level in the same period in recent years [16] - As of the week of December 19, PP downstream operating rate decreased by 0.19 percentage points to 53.80%, at a relatively low level in the same period over the years. The operating rate of the plastic weaving industry, the main downstream of drawn yarn, decreased by 0.06 percentage points to 44.00%, and orders continued to decline slightly, slightly lower than the same period last year [16] 3.3 Plastic基差 (Plastic Basis) - The decline of the spot price is smaller than that of the futures price. The basis of the 05 contract rose to 330 yuan/ton, at a neutral level [20] 3.4 Plastic and PP库存 (Plastic and PP Inventories) - On Friday, the petrochemical early - morning inventory decreased by 10,000 tons to 660,000 tons, 75,000 tons higher than the same period last year. Recently, petrochemical inventory reduction is slow, and the current petrochemical inventory is at a relatively high level in the same period in recent years [24]

2020年后，国内聚乙烯扩能进入快车道，2020-2021年，产能年增长率18%以上，之后2022-2023年扩能 步伐减缓，2024年国内产能增长11%，2025年产能增长16%，疫情导致全球物流中断、部分工厂停产， 供应是被动、暂时性减少。2025年，以埃克森美孚、巴斯夫等外资巨头在国内的独资项目，以及国内大 型炼化一体化项目的投产为代表，新增供应是主动、永久性增加。 从目前来看，聚乙烯产能扩张仍在继续，2026年的扩能潮将高于2025年，而旧产能的退出则需要一个相 对漫长的时期，在产能快速增长期，价格的底部需要进一步确认。（金联创聚乙烯分析师：周瑞侠） 进入2025年，聚乙烯市场供需失衡的泥潭中持续探底。当前主流价格已无限接近2020年疫情初期的极端 低点，市场情绪陷入冰点。截止到2025年12月19日，金联创价格指数，LLDPE价格指数6470，2020年4 月1日LLDPE价格指数5934，LDPE价格指数8271，2020年4月1日6889，HDPE价格指数7057，2020年4 月4日6474，PE价格总指数7365，2020年4月1日6511。然而，与四年前的"黑天鹅"冲击不同，本轮下跌 背后 ...

机构观点 消息面 周三，华东PVC市场价格上调，电石法5型料4380-4470元/吨，乙烯料主流参考4450-4650元/吨左右。 本周PVC社会库存样本统计环比增加0.03%至105.93万吨，同比增加27.63%。 上周PVC开工率78.4%(-0.6%)，结束三连升，乙烯法装置复产，电石法降负现象增多，减产规模相当于一套50万吨左右的产能停车，尚难以推动 当下库存转为去化。 广州期货： 新增产能供应压力仍存，市场面临高开工、高库存与弱需求，期价反弹空间受限，近期政策支撑下低估值期价小幅反弹，但整体仍处于低位震荡 格局。 中辉期货： 主力移仓换月，盘面延续走强。反内卷情绪再起，国内商品普遍走强，当前上中游库存仍处高位，内外需求处于季节性淡季，在上中游未出现集 中性检修前，供需过剩矛盾尚难缓解。不过近期氯碱齐跌，西北自备电石法装置已亏现金流，关注装置动态。策略：短期多单轻仓持有；中长期 等待库存持续去化，回调试多。V【4600-4800】。 ...

聚烯烃日报 | 2025-12-18 供需两端持续承压，价格反弹乏力 市场要闻与重要数据 价格与基差方面，L主力合约收盘价为6479元/吨（-64），PP主力合约收盘价为6254元/吨（-2），LL华北现货为6450 元/吨（-50），LL华东现货为6580元/吨（+0），PP华东现货为6200元/吨（+0），LL华北基差为-29元/吨（+14），LL 华东基差为101元/吨（+64）， PP华东基差为-54元/吨（+2）。 进出口方面，LL进口利润为-100.0元/吨（+5.1），PP进口利润为-268.1元/吨（+4.9），PP出口利润为-12.1美元/吨（-0.6）。 下游需求方面，PE下游农膜开工率为46.4%（-1.7%），PE下游包装膜开工率为49.6%（-0.6%），PP下游塑编开工率 为44.1%（+0.0%），PP下游BOPP膜开工率为62.9%（+0.3%）。 市场分析 PE方面，供应端12月PE总体检修量级不高，后期计划检修量亦相对有限，PE开工预期持续回升，且巴斯夫50万吨 FDPE新装置预期年底投产，供应宽松压力持续；需求端，PE下游整体开工继续下滑，其中农膜开工进入淡季，棚 膜需求 ...

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目 录 1 每日观点 2 基本面/持仓数据 交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 PVC期货早报 2025年12月18日 大越期货投资咨询部 金泽彬 从业资格证号：F3048432 投资咨询证：Z0015557 联系方式：0575-85226759 1 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议 。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 供给端来看，据隆众统计，2025年11月PVC产量为207.926万吨，环比减少2.29%；本周样本企业产能利 用率为79.43%，环比减少0.01个百分点；电石法企业产量34.376万吨，环比减少3.21%,乙烯法企业产 量14.531万吨，环比增加7.43%；本周供给压力有所减少；下周预计检修有所减少，预计排产少量增加 需求端来看，下游整体开工率为48.89%，环比减少0.18个百分点，高于历史平均水平；下游型材开工率 为35.13%，环比减少0.73个百分点，高于历史平均水平；下游管材开工率为37.6%，环比增加0.200个 百分点，低于历史平均水平；下游薄 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core View - The overall supply - demand pattern of PP remains unchanged, there is no further macro - level positive news, the spot trading atmosphere is light, and it is expected that the upward space of PP will be limited in the near future. Due to the possibility of new PP production capacity coming on - stream this year and the gradual exit of the peak season for agricultural films, the L - PP price spread is expected to narrow [1] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Analysis - As of the week ending December 12, the downstream operating rate of PP increased by 0.06 percentage points to 53.99% week - on - week, which is at a relatively low level in the same period of previous years. However, the operating rate of plastic weaving, the main downstream of drawstring PP, decreased by 0.04 percentage points to 44.06% week - on - week, and plastic weaving orders continued to decline slightly, slightly lower than the same period last year [1] - On December 16, there were few changes in maintenance devices, the operating rate of PP enterprises remained at around 84%, at a neutral level, and the production ratio of standard drawstring PP dropped to around 24% [1] - Recently, the inventory reduction of petrochemicals has been slow, and the current petrochemical inventory is at a relatively high level in the same period of recent years. On the cost side, some previously faulty oil fields in Iraq have resumed production. The United States is still actively promoting peace talks between Russia and Ukraine, and Ukraine has made certain compromises on security guarantees. The crack spread of refined oil products in Europe and the United States has continued to decline, and crude oil prices have fallen [1] - In terms of supply, the 400,000 - ton/year new production capacity of PetroChina Guangxi Petrochemical was put into operation in mid - October. Recently, the number of maintenance devices has slightly decreased. The downstream is at the end of the peak season, orders for plastic weaving continue to decline, the price of BOPP film has dropped again, the market lacks large - scale centralized procurement, which has limited support for the market, and traders generally offer discounts to stimulate transactions [1] Futures and Spot Market Conditions - Futures: The PP2605 contract fluctuated with increasing positions, with a minimum price of 6,230 yuan/ton, a maximum price of 6,278 yuan/ton, and finally closed at 6,256 yuan/ton, below the 20 - day moving average, with a decline of 0.13%. The open interest increased by 11,398 lots to 497,942 lots [2] - Spot: The spot prices of PP in most regions have declined. The drawstring PP is quoted at 5,980 - 6,330 yuan/ton [3] Fundamental Tracking - Supply side: On December 16, new maintenance devices such as the second - phase HDPE of Sinopec - SK Wuhan Petrochemical were added, and the operating rate of plastics dropped to around 87%, currently at a neutral level [4] - Demand side: As of the week ending December 12, the downstream operating rate of PP increased by 0.06 percentage points to 53.99% week - on - week, which is at a relatively low level in the same period of previous years. However, the operating rate of plastic weaving, the main downstream of drawstring PP, decreased by 0.04 percentage points to 44.06% week - on - week, and plastic weaving orders continued to decline slightly, slightly lower than the same period last year [4] - On Tuesday, the early - morning inventory of petrochemicals decreased by 30,000 tons to 720,000 tons week - on - week, 65,000 tons higher than the same period last year. Recently, the inventory reduction of petrochemicals has been slow, and the current petrochemical inventory is at a relatively high level in the same period of recent years [4] Raw Material End - Brent crude oil contract 02 dropped to $60/barrel, and the CFR propylene price in China remained flat at $745/ton week - on - week [6]

Report Overview - Report Title: Guantong Futures Research Report - Polyolefin Weekly Report - Analyst: Su Miaoda - Release Time: December 15, 2025 - Reported Company: Guantong Futures Co., Ltd. Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided Core Viewpoints - The overall supply - demand pattern of polyolefins remains unchanged, the trading atmosphere is weak, and the upward space of polyolefins is expected to be limited in the near future [4]. - Due to the possibility of new plastic production capacity coming on - stream within the year and the gradual exit of the agricultural film peak season, the L - PP spread is expected to continue to decline [4]. - Plastics and PP are oscillating downward [5]. Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Plastic and PP开工率 - Plastic开工率 increased by 2.5 percentage points to around 90%, at a neutral level, due to the restart of maintenance devices such as Ningxia Baofeng HDPE Phase II [14]. - PP企业开工率 rose 3.5 percentage points to around 85%, also at a neutral level, as maintenance devices like Zhong'an United's single - line restarted [14]. 2. Plastic and PP下游开工率 - As of the week of December 12, PE下游开工率 decreased by 0.76 percentage points to 43.00% week - on - week. The agricultural film is gradually exiting the peak season, with orders and raw material inventory decreasing, and the overall PE downstream开工率 is at a relatively low level in recent years [20]. - As of the week of December 12, PP下游开工率 increased by 0.06 percentage points to 53.99% week - on - week, at a relatively low level over the years. However, the weaving开工率 of the drawing main downstream decreased by 0.04 percentage points to 44.06%, and orders continued to decline slightly, slightly lower than last year [20]. 3. Plastic基差 - The decline of the spot price is smaller than that of the futures price, and the basis of the 01 contract rose to 214 yuan/ton, at a neutral level [23]. 4. Plastic and PP库存 - On Friday, the petrochemical early inventory decreased by 10,000 tons week - on - week to 680,000 tons, 60,000 tons higher than the same period last year. Recently, petrochemical inventory reduction has been slow, and the current petrochemical inventory is at a relatively high level in recent years [27].

张国才 从业资格证号：F03133773 本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅供参考，不构成任何投资建议；期市有风险，投资需谨慎 01 PART ONE 主要观点及策略概述 PVC:国资委发文抵制内卷，盘面价格止跌反弹 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】31号 【PVC 周报（PVC ）】 国资委发文抵制内卷，盘面价格止跌反弹 国贸期货 能源化工研究中心 2025-12-15 叶海文 从业资格证号：F3071622 投资咨询证号：Z0014205 | 影响因素 | 驱动 | 主要逻辑 | | --- | --- | --- | | 供给 | 偏空 | （1）本周国内PVC现货市场窄幅调整，基本面难改供大于求格局，PVC供应受检修影响小幅上升，市场需求维持平淡。（2）本周PVC生产企业产能利用 | | | | 率在79.43%环比减少0.46%，同比减少0.07%；其中电石法在79.66%环比减少2.99%，同比减少0.54%，乙烯法在78.90%环比增加5.46%，同比增加1.39%。 | | | | （1）下游需求进入淡季，下游开工下滑。（2）国内PVC管材样本企业开工在37.60%，环 ...

研究中心能化团队 2025/12/15 甲醇聚烯烃早报 | 甲 醇 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 日期 | 动力煤期 | | 江苏现货 华南现货 | 鲁南折盘 | 西南折盘面 | 河北折盘 | 西北折盘 | CFR中国 | CFR东南 | | 进口利润 主力基差 | 盘面MTO | | | 货 | | | 面 | | 面 | 面 | | 亚 | | | 利润 | | 2025/12/0 8 | 801 | 2088 | 2068 | 2425 | 2465 | 2435 | 2595 | 243 | 317 | -10 | 0 | -1092 | | 2025/12/0 9 | 801 | 2090 | 2053 | 2423 | 2465 | 2385 | 2590 | 243 | 317 | -15 | 5 | -1106 | | 2025/12/1 0 | 801 | 2095 | 2048 | 2435 | 2465 ...