创业板指涨超1%，沪指涨0.33%，深成指涨0.51%，黄金、煤炭、医药、大金融等方向领涨，沪深京三 市上涨个股超1600只，宁德时代涨逾5%。 ...

资金从何而起 [Table_Authors] 吴信坤(分析师) ——港股资金跟踪新范式 1 本报告导读： ①基于属地来源和历史交易行为的"两步法"核心框架将港股资金面拆分为长短线 外资、内资、港资等各类资金。②拆分后资金存量规模显著分化，过去以来外资占 比虽下滑但仍延续主导，南向定价权边际提升。③长短线外资在交易的换手频率和 方向变动上存在差异，南向通常会逆势买入，近期外资流出而南向流入的格局仍延 续。 投资要点： 登记编号 S0880525040084 陆嘉瑞(研究助理) 021-38676666 登记编号 S0880125042248 风险提示：部分资金数据为估算值，与真实情况或有出入。 策 略 研 究 策略研究 /[Table_Date] 2025.05.17 2025-05-18 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 海 外 策 略 研 究 证 券 研 究 报 告 021-38676666 登记编号 S0880525040061 余培仪(分析师) 021-38676666 [Table_Summary] 基于历史交易行为辨别外资属性的核心框架。通常而言，微观资金 面的跟踪源自各类投资者资金流动的汇总，港股 ...

Market Overview - The market is currently experiencing a volume contraction and a retreat in the large financial sector, with key indices at critical support levels that will determine future trends [1][2][3] Key Indices Analysis - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at the zero axis on the 15-minute chart, which is crucial for determining whether it will continue its upward trend or undergo a larger adjustment [1] - The CSI 500 and CSI 1000 indices have dropped below the zero axis on the 30-minute chart, indicating potential weakness if they continue to decline [1][2] - The ChiNext and Shenzhen Component indices are also near the zero axis on the 30-minute chart, with the potential for increased adjustment strength [2] Support Levels - The ability of the Shanghai Composite Index to hold above the 60-day moving average on the daily chart is critical; maintaining this level would suggest that adjustments are acceptable [3] Market Sentiment and Volume - There is skepticism regarding a significant upward breakout driven by large-cap stocks due to insufficient trading volume, which has not reached 2 trillion [4] - The market sentiment may see a temporary recovery, but the quality of this recovery is questionable given the low trading volume and the approaching weekend, which may dampen trading enthusiasm [4] Sector Performance - Key sectors such as military, robotics, and semiconductors have not yet shown signs of reaching a low point or buy signal, indicating a need for patience [5] ETF Performance - Food and Beverage ETF (Code: 515170) has seen a slight increase of 1.17% over the past five days, with a market cap of 5.6 billion and a PE ratio of 21.91 [7] - Gaming ETF (Code: 159869) has decreased by 3.93% in the last five days, with a PE ratio of 53.54 and a market cap of 5.94 billion [7] - Semiconductor ETF (Code: 588170) has dropped by 3.95%, with a market cap of 230 million and a net outflow of 390.7 thousand [7] - Cloud Computing ETF (Code: 516630) has decreased by 3.62%, with a PE ratio of 97.31 and a market cap of 5.5 billion [8]

Market Overview - A-shares experienced a trading volume of 11,524 billion, with all three major indices declining, indicating a potential end to the recent upward trend [1][2] - The market is currently facing a significant selling pressure as it approaches the 3,400-point level, which coincides with previous high points, leading to increased hesitation among investors [1] Sector Performance - The synthetic biology and beauty care sectors showed resilience, with notable gains, while the port and shipping sector remained active despite some internal differentiation [1][2] - The food and beverage sector rebounded, supported by government initiatives aimed at boosting consumer spending [2] Economic Influences - The cautious sentiment in the market is influenced by upcoming speeches from Federal Reserve officials, particularly Jerome Powell, and recent comments from Jefferson regarding potential economic slowdowns and inflation concerns in the U.S. [1] - The financial and technology sectors collectively adjusted, contributing to a bearish market atmosphere, as the indices lacked support [2] Future Outlook - The current market adjustment is viewed as a normal part of an upward trend, with expectations of a potential rebound as the market has not yet breached the 5-day moving average [2] - The market is anticipated to experience a pullback, but the overall sentiment remains optimistic for the future [2]

机构观点 深圳高平聚能资本基金经理谢爱民认为，大盘又处于上方有阻力位的位置，两市再度缩量，显示出主 力选择观望的情绪。当前阶段，A股行情仍将以震荡为主。 东方证券投顾汪啸骅认为，海外风险扰动落定，美国通胀未见上行压力，市场重回全球财政扩张的经 济修复期。避险资金大幅退潮，资产端风险偏好逐步修复。市场反复轮动预期改善，但总量流动性可 能受海外弹性分流影响。在指数横向整理背景下，板块可能维持分化表现。聚焦出口链、消费电子以 及稀土磁材、精细化工等资源品的修复轮动。 微信编辑 | 生产队的驴（不午休版） 2025.05. 14 作者 | 第一财经 截至午间收盘，沪指涨0.19%，深成指跌0.26%，创业板指跌0.22%。 港口航运板块延续涨势，大金融股走强，化工化纤、物流、稀土永磁板块涨幅居前；光伏、贵金属、 消费电子、机器人等板块下挫。 个股跌多涨少，全市场超3800只个股下跌。 | 全A | 涨 1318 | 平 201 | 跌 3892 | A股成? | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 序号代码 | 名称 | 现价 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 | | 1 | 000001 上证指 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles highlights the active trading of the Dividend Low Volatility ETF (512890) and the supportive policies from the China Securities Regulatory Commission (CSRC) aimed at enhancing market stability and investor confidence [1][2] - The CSRC's new action plan includes 25 measures to shift the focus of the public fund industry from "scale" to "returns," which is expected to have a medium to long-term impact on the A-share market ecosystem [2] - The recent economic data, including resilient inflation and export figures, suggests a short-term favorable outlook, although the risk-reward ratio may decline, leading to a more structural market trend [1] Group 2 - The new regulations are expected to accelerate the trend towards indexation of public fund products and emphasize the performance benchmark constraints for fund products, potentially increasing allocations to low-risk equity funds and dividend assets [2] - Investment firms recommend maintaining current positions in the market while adjusting the portfolio structure, favoring sectors like large financials and dividend stocks over previously high-performing technology and growth sectors [1] - The MACD golden cross signal indicates positive momentum in certain stocks, suggesting potential investment opportunities [4]

Group 1 - The A-share market is expected to maintain a strong oscillating trend in the short term, driven by increased market attention and the effectiveness of "stabilization funds" [1] - Focus areas include the AI industry chain, self-controllable sectors, and consumption sectors benefiting from domestic demand expansion, particularly in service consumption [1] - High dividend sectors are expected to continue attracting investment, especially in banking, coal, public utilities, and transportation [1] Group 2 - The market has recovered from previous negative impacts, but underlying negative factors have not been completely eliminated, suggesting a period of consolidation ahead [2] - It is recommended to adjust the current portfolio by reducing exposure to high-growth technology sectors and reallocating to financial, state-owned enterprises, and dividend-paying sectors [2] Group 3 - The technology sector is likely to continue its strong performance in the short term, with TMT (Technology, Media, and Telecommunications) expected to outperform the market [3] - Supportive policies and industry trends are driving the technology sector, with liquidity conditions also becoming more favorable [3] - Historical trends indicate that TMT typically shows strong performance relative to the market in May, driven by policy and industry catalysts [3]

华金证券：聚焦科技，部分消费可能也有配置机会。 关于5月行业配置，华金证券认为： （1）5月科技和消费可能是配置主线。 一是复盘历史，5月消费旺季下消费、大金融行业相对占 优，同时政策导向和产业趋势上行的行业也表现偏强。 二是今年5月来看，消费和科技可能相对占 优： 首先，"五一"假期期间出行和消费火爆，相关的社服、 食品饮料 等表现可能相对偏强； 其 次，当前政策支持的方向是提振消费、科技创新，相关的消费和科技表现可能相对占优。 （2）5月科技可能有超额收益。一是历史经验上，5月科技行业大概率有超额收益，且主要受产业和政 策催化驱动。二是今年来看，5月科技可能相对偏强：首先，5月科技产业大会密集召开，DeepSeek R2 发布，科技相关产业趋势不断上行；其次，政治局会议再次强调支持科技创新。 （3）5月一季报较好的行业可能表现占优。 （4）5月建议逢低配置：一是一是政策和产业趋势向上的计算机（国产软件、AI大模型）、机器人、 传媒（AI应用）、通信（算力）、电子（半导体）、创新药、电新等；二是政策和旺季催化下的食 品、社服（旅游、酒店、餐饮）、商贸零售、家电、建材等；三是大金融、电力等低估值红利行业。 展 ...

2025 年 05 月 04 日 策略类●证券研究报告 节后开启震荡反弹，五月震荡偏强 定期报告 投资要点 假期期间担忧的风险基本未发生，节后可能开启震荡反弹。（1）假期期间海外风 险事件并未发生，国内政策继续偏积极。一是假期期间中国商务部表示中方正在对 美方主动要求谈判进行评估，中美谈判可能性增大。二是假期期间国内积极的政策 进一步落地实施。（2）假期期间海外流动性宽松预期未有变化。一是美国 4 月份 制造业 PMI、新增非农就业人数环比、平均时薪同比增速等均有所回落；二是美联 储继续降息概率仍较大，美元维持低位。（3）假期期间国内出行和消费数据火爆。 复盘历史，影响 5 月 A 股走势的主要因素是政策和外部事件、基本面和流动性。 （1）5 月 A 股表现多偏弱：2010 年以来的 15 年中上证综指仅有 6 次 5 月上涨。 （2）影响 5 月 A 股走势的主要因素是政策和外部事件、基本面和流动性。一是政 政策宽松或外部事件积极则上证综指 5 月可能上涨，如 2014 年"新国九条"发布、 2015 年央行调降 LPR、2021 "双碳"目标确立等；否则 A 股表现可能偏弱，如 2010、2011 年欧债 ...

以下文章来源于36氪财经 ，作者范亮 郑怀舟 36氪财经 . 36氪旗下官方账号。洞见市场，比99%的投资者更聪明。 交易过热是主因。 文 ｜ 范亮 编辑 ｜ 郑怀舟 来源｜ 36氪财经（ID：krfinance） 封面来源 ｜ 视觉中国 2月最后一个交易日，此前一路走强的中国权益市场遭遇春节后的最大跌幅。 具体来看，A股市场中，上证指数单日下跌1.98%，年内收益翻绿，创业板指下跌3.82%；港股市场中，恒生指数下跌3.28%， 恒生科技指数下跌5.32%。板块方面，近期大火的AI、机器人板块也均大幅回调，红利、消费板块相对坚挺。 那么，市场因何大幅回调？本轮市场行情是否会就此结束？ 交易过热是主因 消息面上，对2月28日市场影响最大的，无疑是特朗普表示将在2月1日已生效的额外10%关税基础上，继续在3月4日对中国进口 商品再额外征收10%的关税，二者合计20%。这个关税加征幅度虽然与此前高盛中性预测的20%，大摩的约15%较为接近， 但 加征节奏却快于外资机构的预期，因此资金出于避险需求，引发市场回调 。 另外，2月份以来A股市场AI、机器人相关的板块涨幅巨大，如万得人工智能、机器人指数最高涨幅超过20% ...