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研究所晨会观点精萃-20250821
Dong Hai Qi Huo· 2025-08-21 00:44
Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core View of the Report The overall market sentiment has shown a mixed picture. Overseas, the global risk appetite has cooled to some extent, while in China, the risk appetite has increased due to policy stimulus expectations and the extension of the tariff truce period. Different asset classes have different short - term trends and investment suggestions, and various commodity sectors also face different supply - demand and price situations. [2] Summary by Related Catalogs Macro - finance - Overseas, the US dollar reduced its decline after the Fed meeting minutes showed only two policymakers supported last month's rate cut, and the global risk appetite cooled. In China, the economic data in July slowed down and fell short of expectations. The Chinese Premier indicated measures to boost consumption and stabilize the real estate market, and the Sino - US tariff truce was extended by 90 days, increasing domestic risk appetite. For assets, the stock index is expected to oscillate strongly at a short - term high, and it is advisable to be cautious when going long; the treasury bond is expected to oscillate and correct at a high level, and it is advisable to wait and see; for the commodity sector, black metals are expected to correct in the short term, non - ferrous metals to oscillate, energy and chemicals to oscillate weakly, and precious metals to oscillate at a high level, all requiring cautious observation. [2] Stock Index - Driven by sectors such as liquor, semiconductors, and small metals, the domestic stock market rose significantly. The economic data in July was weak, but policy stimulus expectations increased, and the short - term macro - upward driving force strengthened. The market's trading logic focuses on domestic incremental stimulus policies and trade negotiation progress. It is advisable to be cautious when going long in the short term. [3] Precious Metals - Precious metals rose on Wednesday. The Fed meeting minutes showed only two policymakers advocated rate cuts, and the probability of a 25 - basis - point rate cut in September was 83%. Weak employment data and a weakening US dollar index led to the rise of precious metals. The long - term positive logic of precious metals remains unchanged, and attention should be paid to entry opportunities at key points. [4] Black Metals - **Steel**: On Wednesday, the domestic steel futures and spot markets were flat, with prices slightly falling and low trading volume. Demand weakened, and inventories in some areas increased. Supply of rebar was relatively low, and that of plates was stable. There were rumors of production control in Cangzhou, and iron - water production may further decline. It is advisable to view the steel market with a weak - oscillation mindset in the short term. [4][5] - **Iron Ore**: On Wednesday, the futures and spot prices of iron ore continued to be weak. Although steel mill profits were high and iron - water production rebounded slightly last week, with the approaching of important events in early September, production - restriction policies may be further strengthened, and port transportation and ore handling volumes will be affected. The supply side increased, and port inventories were accumulating. Iron ore prices may weaken in the short term. [5] - **Silicon Manganese/Silicon Iron**: On Wednesday, the spot and futures prices of silicon iron and silicon manganese fell. Manganese ore prices continued to decline. Manufacturers were actively starting production, and some had plans to increase production. The开工 rate and daily output of both silicon manganese and silicon iron increased. It is advisable to view the ferroalloy market with a weak - oscillation mindset in the short term. [6] - **Soda Ash**: On Wednesday, the main soda - ash contract was weak. The supply - surplus pattern remained unchanged, with new installations expected to be put into operation in the fourth quarter. Demand was weak, and profits decreased week - on - week. Soda ash is likely to fall rather than rise due to high supply, high inventory, and weak demand. [7] - **Glass**: On Wednesday, the main glass contract was weak. Supply changes were small, demand was still weak in the real - estate industry, and although downstream deep - processing orders increased in mid - August, overall demand remained stable. Profits decreased as prices fell. Glass prices follow the real - world logic due to near - month delivery. [7] Non - ferrous Metals and New Energy - **Copper**: With the approaching of the Jackson Hole central bank meeting, the expectation of a rate cut has increased, which is short - term positive for copper prices. However, high tariffs and the slowdown of the US economy pose risks. Copper mine production is growing faster than expected, and domestic demand will weaken marginally. The strong copper price is hard to sustain. [8][9] - **Aluminum**: On August 19, the US added 407 product categories to the steel and aluminum tariff list. Aluminum prices fell slightly on Wednesday. The fundamentals of aluminum have weakened, with domestic social inventories increasing significantly and LME inventories also rising. Aluminum prices are expected to oscillate in the short term, with limited medium - term upside. [9] - **Aluminum Alloy**: The supply of scrap aluminum is tight, increasing production costs and causing losses for some regenerative aluminum plants. Demand is weak as it is the off - season. Aluminum alloy prices are expected to oscillate strongly in the short term, but the upside is limited. [10] - **Tin**: The combined开工 rate of Yunnan and Jiangxi decreased slightly. The supply of tin ore is tight but improving, and refined tin production has not decreased significantly. Demand is weak, and although inventory decreased this week, downstream procurement is still cautious. Tin prices are expected to oscillate in the short term, and the upside is restricted. [10] - **Lithium Carbonate**: On Wednesday, lithium carbonate futures hit the daily limit down. The prices of lithium carbonate and lithium ore decreased. The industry's profit situation has improved, and production enthusiasm is high. Lithium carbonate prices are expected to oscillate at a high level. [11] - **Industrial Silicon**: On Wednesday, the main industrial - silicon contract fell. The spot price decreased, and the futures price was at a discount. With the weakening of black metals and the oscillation of polysilicon, industrial silicon is expected to oscillate within a range. [11] - **Polysilicon**: On Wednesday, the main polysilicon contract fell slightly. Spot prices were stable, and the number of warehouse receipts increased, indicating increased hedging pressure. The photovoltaic industry is expected to regulate the market, and polysilicon prices are expected to oscillate at a high level, with a possibility of weakening later. [12][13] Energy and Chemicals - **Crude Oil**: EIA data showed a significant decrease in US crude oil and gasoline inventories last week, leading to a rebound in oil prices. However, Cushing inventory has increased for 7 consecutive weeks. Due to the uncertainty of the Russia - Ukraine peace talks and long - term supply increases, the long - term outlook for oil prices is still bearish, and short - term stability is expected. [14] - **Asphalt**: The processing margin of asphalt is approaching the previous low, but the crude - oil processing margin has rebounded slightly, providing some price support. The spot price has slightly recovered, but inventory de - stocking is limited. With the expected decline of crude oil prices due to OPEC+ production increases, asphalt is expected to remain in a weak - oscillation pattern. [14] - **PX**: The adjustment of upstream refinery capacity in China has strengthened the support for downstream chemicals. Although PX is in a tight supply situation in the short term, it is expected to oscillate as PTA device recovery is limited. [15] - **PTA**: The polyester sector rebounded due to capacity adjustment, and PTA was also lifted. Downstream demand has slightly rebounded, but processing margins are low, limiting supply. PTA prices are expected to oscillate narrowly, with the upside restricted by crude oil prices and terminal orders in September. [15] - **Ethylene Glycol**: The restriction on new capacity and excess raw - material capacity has supported ethylene glycol prices. Although port inventory has decreased slightly, factory inventory is still high, and supply is expected to increase slightly. With the recovery of terminal orders in August, ethylene glycol is expected to maintain an oscillation pattern. [16] - **Short - fiber**: The short - fiber price rose slightly due to sector resonance. Terminal orders have increased slightly, but inventory accumulation is limited. It is advisable to short on rallies in the medium term. [16] - **Methanol**: The price of methanol in Taicang followed the futures and strengthened, while the basis weakened. Inland demand increased as some methanol plants restarted, but port inventory increased due to imports and plant overhauls. The price is expected to oscillate and rise in the short term and maintain a weak - oscillation pattern in the medium term. [17] - **PP**: The supply pressure of PP has increased as device开工 rates have risen and new capacity is to be put into operation. Although downstream demand has increased slightly, there is no obvious peak - season stocking. With policy support, PP prices are expected to oscillate weakly in the 09 contract and attention should be paid to the 01 contract for peak - season stocking. [17] - **LLDPE**: The supply pressure of LLDPE remains high, and demand has shown a turning point. The 09 contract is expected to oscillate weakly, while the 01 contract is supported by policy expectations, and attention should be paid to demand, stocking, and policy implementation. [18] Agricultural Products - **US Soybeans**: The November soybean contract on the CBOT rose slightly. US soybean growers urged the government to reach a trade agreement with China, and the results of the Midwest crop inspection were mixed. [19] - **Soybean and Rapeseed Meal**: The pressure of full - stockpiling of soybeans and soybean meal in domestic oil mills has been relieved. Canadian rapeseed imports are restricted, but China's purchase of Australian rapeseed has eased the supply risk. The price of soybean and rapeseed meal has risen, and there is still a risk preference for rapeseed meal. [19] - **Soybean and Rapeseed Oil**: ICE rapeseed rebounded after two days of decline. The supply of domestic rapeseed oil is expected to shrink as port inventory decreases and imports are low. The cost of soybean oil is expected to be strong, with high short - term inventory pressure but improved supply - demand in the fourth quarter. [20] - **Palm Oil**: The prices of CBOT soybeans, soybean meal, Malaysian palm - oil futures, and international crude oil rose. The export of Malaysian palm oil in August 1 - 20 increased significantly, but the inverted soybean - palm oil price spread may affect future demand. [20] - **Corn**: The national corn price is slightly weak. With the listing of spring corn, sufficient supply, and the potential impact of state - reserve auctions and rice auctions, the corn market remains weak. [20] - **Pigs**: Pig prices may have a seasonal rebound from late August to September, but the amplitude is limited. The cost of secondary fattening has increased due to stricter transportation inspections. The spot price has stabilized, and attention should be paid to the consumption peak during the start of the school term. [21]
有色和贵金属每日早盘观察-20250820
Yin He Qi Huo· 2025-08-20 12:45
Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core View of the Report The report analyzes the market conditions of various metals including precious metals, copper, alumina, electrolytic aluminum, and others. It provides market reviews, important information, logical analyses, and trading strategies for each metal. Overall, due to factors such as geopolitical conflicts, Fed policies, and supply - demand fundamentals, the market is in a state of flux, and different trading strategies are recommended for different metals, mainly including temporary observation, waiting for new entry opportunities, and specific operations like high - selling and low - buying in certain ranges [2][6][11]. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Precious Metals - **Market Review**: London gold closed down 0.5% at $3316.035 per ounce, London silver down 1.8% at $37.32 per ounce. Affected by the external market, Shanghai gold and silver futures also declined. The US dollar index rose 0.1% to 98.26, the 10 - year US Treasury yield fell slightly to 4.3038%, and the RMB exchange rate against the US dollar rose 0.03% to 7.183 [2]. - **Important Information**: There are considerations for a Russia - Ukraine leaders' summit, and the probability of the Fed cutting interest rates is high. For example, in September, the probability of a 25 - basis - point rate cut is 86.1% [2]. - **Logical Analysis**: The unexpected rise in US PPI and strong retail data have dampened the market's expectations of interest rate cuts. Geopolitical tensions are expected to ease. However, the US may face "stagflation - like" situation, so it's advisable to wait and see for new entry opportunities [2]. - **Trading Strategy**: Temporarily observe in unilateral, arbitrage, and option trading [2][4]. Copper - **Market Review**: The night - session of Shanghai copper 2509 contract closed at 78,550 yuan per ton, down 0.23%. The LME copper closed at $9,684.5 per ton, down 0.69%. The LME inventory decreased by 450 tons to 155,100 tons, and the COMEX inventory increased by 873 tons to 269,900 tons [6]. - **Important Information**: Two US copper manufacturers raised prices by 5%, and First Quantum Mining started a $1.25 - billion expansion project in Zambia [6]. - **Logical Analysis**: The ore supply shortage has been temporarily alleviated, the LME inventory increase has slowed down, and domestic imports may increase, putting pressure on prices. Downstream demand shows different trends, with improved acceptance of prices [8]. - **Trading Strategy**: Temporarily observe in unilateral, arbitrage, and option trading [4][10]. Alumina - **Market Review**: The night - session of alumina 2509 contract fell to 3,087 yuan per ton. Spot prices in different regions showed declines or remained flat [11]. - **Important Information**: An electrolytic aluminum plant in Xinjiang tendered for alumina, and some alumina enterprises have maintenance plans. Alumina exports and ore imports increased [11][12]. - **Logical Analysis**: Market speculation has cooled, and the alumina market is in a state of oversupply. However, short - term supply is not significantly excessive due to maintenance plans [14]. - **Trading Strategy**: The price may be in a high - level consolidation in unilateral trading; observe in arbitrage and option trading [13][15]. Electrolytic Aluminum - **Market Review**: The night - session of Shanghai aluminum 2509 contract fell to 20,500 yuan per ton. Spot prices in different regions rose [17]. - **Important Information**: The US expanded the steel and aluminum tariff list, and there are considerations for a Russia - Ukraine - US leaders' summit. Aluminum inventory remained stable [17][19]. - **Logical Analysis**: The resolution of the Russia - Ukraine issue may lead to changes in sanctions on Russian aluminum. The domestic inventory pressure has decreased, and the downstream has shown more active inventory - building [21]. - **Trading Strategy**: In unilateral trading, the price may decline with the external market; in arbitrage, short - term long Shanghai aluminum and short LME aluminum, and exit if the talks are not successful; observe in option trading [21]. Casting Aluminum Alloy - **Market Review**: The night - session of casting aluminum alloy 2511 contract fell to 20,055 yuan per ton. Spot prices in different regions were mostly flat or slightly increased [24]. - **Important Information**: Four - ministry policy affects the recycled aluminum industry, and the industry's profit has improved in July. The social inventory of recycled aluminum alloy ingots decreased [24][25]. - **Logical Analysis**: The supply of scrap aluminum is tight, and some factories have reduced production. The demand from downstream die - casting enterprises is weak [25]. - **Trading Strategy**: The price may decline with aluminum prices in unilateral trading; observe in arbitrage and option trading [26]. Zinc - **Market Review**: The LME zinc fell 0.5% to $2,770 per ton, and the Shanghai zinc 2510 fell 0.29% to 22,180 yuan per ton. The spot market trading was mainly among traders [28]. - **Important Information**: A zinc smelter in the northwest has a maintenance plan, and Tianjin has transportation restrictions [28]. - **Logical Analysis**: The domestic supply has increased, the terminal consumption is weak, and the inventory has been accumulating, putting pressure on prices [29]. - **Trading Strategy**: Hold profitable short positions in unilateral trading; observe in arbitrage and option trading [30]. Lead - **Market Review**: The LME lead fell 0.33% to $1,974 per ton, and the Shanghai lead 2510 fell 0.56% to 16,720 yuan per ton. The spot market trading was light [32][34]. - **Important Information**: A small - scale recycled lead smelter in the south plans to resume production [35]. - **Logical Analysis**: The consumption has not improved significantly, but the cost provides some support for the price [35]. - **Trading Strategy**: Try high - selling and low - buying within a range in unilateral trading; observe in arbitrage and option trading [36]. Nickel - **Market Review**: The LME nickel fell to $15,060 per ton, and the Shanghai nickel NI2510 fell to 120,320 yuan per ton. The spot premiums of different types of nickel changed [38]. - **Important Information**: There are plans for a Russia - Ukraine - US leaders' summit [38]. - **Logical Analysis**: No detailed logical analysis provided in the text. - **Trading Strategy**: The price may fluctuate widely in unilateral trading; observe in arbitrage trading; sell out - of - the - money put options [40]. Stainless Steel - **Market Review**: The main SS2509 contract fell to 12,825 yuan per ton. The spot prices of cold - rolled and hot - rolled stainless steel are in a certain range [42]. - **Important Information**: A German company proposed a tariff exemption for SMEs' steel imports, and the US expanded the steel and aluminum tariff list. A nickel - iron factory sold high - nickel iron at a certain price [42]. - **Logical Analysis**: Global economic prospects, tariff policies, and Fed decisions affect the market. The price is expected to fluctuate widely due to lack of demand drive and cost support [43][44]. - **Trading Strategy**: The price may fluctuate widely in unilateral trading; observe in arbitrage trading [45]. Industrial Silicon - **Market Review**: The industrial silicon futures main contract closed at 8,625 yuan per ton, down 1.26%. Most spot prices remained stable [47]. - **Important Information**: Six - department held a photovoltaic industry symposium [47]. - **Logical Analysis**: The core contradiction lies in market sentiment and fundamental change expectations. The market is expected to fluctuate in the short - and medium - term [49]. - **Trading Strategy**: The futures price may decline during the day; consider reverse arbitrage for the 11th and 12th contracts [50]. Polysilicon - **Market Review**: The polysilicon futures main contract closed at 52,260 yuan per ton, down 0.53%. The spot prices were stable and showed a slight increase [52]. - **Important Information**: Six - department held a photovoltaic industry symposium [52]. - **Logical Analysis**: The supply is in excess in August, but the cost provides support. The price is expected to fluctuate within a certain range, and there may be future policy benefits [53]. - **Trading Strategy**: Buy on dips within a certain price range in unilateral trading; conduct positive arbitrage for the 2511 and 2512 contracts; sell out - of - the - money put options [53]. Lithium Carbonate - **Market Review**: The lithium carbonate 2511 fell to 87,540 yuan per ton. The spot prices of electric and industrial carbonates increased [55]. - **Important Information**: There are developments in lithium - battery raw material imports, corporate production resumptions, and expansions. The US included lithium in the key enforcement industries [55]. - **Logical Analysis**: The spot market supply is tight, and the supply - demand gap may widen in September, supporting the price. The price may decline due to market sentiment and then rise again [56]. - **Trading Strategy**: Buy on dips in unilateral trading; observe in arbitrage trading; sell out - of - the - money put options for the 2511 contract [56]. Tin - **Market Review**: The Shanghai tin 2509 closed at 268,850 yuan per ton, up 0.88%. The spot prices adjusted downwards, and the trading was not active [58]. - **Important Information**: Peru and Indonesia released export data of tin [58][59]. - **Logical Analysis**: The LME tin inventory decreased, and the tin ore supply is tight. The industry is in a state of tight balance, and attention should be paid to the resumption of production in Myanmar and consumption recovery [59]. - **Trading Strategy**: The price may continue to fluctuate in unilateral trading; observe in option trading [59].
供应扰动风险仍存,新能源金属整体延续强势
Zhong Xin Qi Huo· 2025-08-20 10:57
Report Industry Investment Ratings - Industrial silicon: Oscillating [5] - Polysilicon: Oscillating [6] - Lithium carbonate: Oscillating and bullish [10] Core Viewpoints of the Report - Supply disruption risks still exist, and new energy metals as a whole continue to be strong. Lithium supply disruptions are expected to push up lithium prices in the short and medium term, and a bullish view on lithium prices is advisable. Silicon prices are showing an oscillating trend, and there is a risk of decline in the long term [1]. - For industrial silicon, coal prices are fluctuating, leading to continuous volatility in silicon prices. For polysilicon, market sentiment is fluctuating, resulting in wide - range price volatility. For lithium carbonate, the battle between bulls and bears continues, and the price is oscillating and correcting [2]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Market Views Industrial Silicon - **Information Analysis**: As of August 19, the spot price of industrial silicon fluctuated. The latest domestic inventory decreased by 0.02% month - on - month. In July 2025, the monthly output increased by 3.2% month - on - month and decreased by 30.6% year - on - year. From January to July, the cumulative output decreased by 20.0% year - on - year. In June, exports increased by 22.8% month - on - month and 11.6% year - on - year. From January to June, cumulative exports decreased by 6.6% year - on - year. In June, domestic photovoltaic new installations decreased by 38.45% year - on - year, and from January to June, cumulative installations increased by 107.07% year - on - year [5]. - **Main Logic**: The supply of industrial silicon continues to rise. In August, the supply pressure may continue to increase. Demand shows some improvement signs, but the inventory is expected to accumulate further [5]. - **Outlook**: Silicon prices will continue to oscillate in the short term, and the resumption of production by large factories will be the key [5]. Polysilicon - **Information Analysis**: The成交 price of N - type re - feedstock ranges from 45,000 to 49,000 yuan/ton, with an average price of 47,400 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 0.42%. The number of polysilicon warehouse receipts increased. In June, exports increased by 5.96% month - on - month and decreased by 39.67% year - on - year. From January to June, cumulative exports decreased by 7.23% year - on - year. In June, imports increased by 40.3% month - on - month. From January to June, cumulative imports decreased by 47.59% year - on - year. From January to June 2025, domestic photovoltaic new installations increased by 107% year - on - year [6]. - **Main Logic**: Macro factors and coal price fluctuations lead to wide - range price oscillations. Supply is expected to increase in August, and demand may weaken in the future [6][8]. - **Outlook**: Anti - cut - throat competition policies have a significant impact on prices, and attention should be paid to policy implementation [8]. Lithium Carbonate - **Information Analysis**: On August 19, the closing price of the lithium carbonate main contract decreased by 1.9%, and the total position decreased by 16,876 lots. The spot price of battery - grade lithium carbonate increased by 1,100 yuan/ton, and the price of industrial - grade lithium carbonate also increased by 1,100 yuan/ton. The average price of lithium spodumene concentrate was 1,045 US dollars/ton. The warehouse receipts increased by 60 tons [9]. - **Main Logic**: The supply shortage caused by mine shutdowns will gradually emerge, but high prices may stimulate supply. The current domestic supply and demand are generally balanced [10]. - **Outlook**: The supply - demand gap caused by shutdowns is expected to keep prices oscillating and bullish [10]. 2. Market Monitoring - The report only lists the headings for industrial silicon, polysilicon, and lithium carbonate under market monitoring but does not provide specific content [11][17][28]. 3. Commodity Index - **Comprehensive Index**: On August 19, 2025, the commodity index was 2,223.20, a decrease of 0.36%; the commodity 20 index was 2,469.40, a decrease of 0.26%; the industrial products index was 2,256.94, a decrease of 0.47% [50]. - **New Energy Commodity Index**: On August 19, 2025, the index was 430.14, with a daily decrease of 0.80%, a 5 - day increase of 1.93%, a 1 - month increase of 7.23%, and a year - to - date increase of 4.30% [52].
【安泰科】工业硅价格(2025年8月20日)
Core Viewpoint - The article provides an overview of the current pricing trends and transportation costs for industrial silicon in various regions of China, highlighting fluctuations in prices and the involvement of multiple companies in the industry [1][2]. Pricing Summary - The comprehensive national average price for industrial silicon is reported at 8,874 yuan/ton, with fluctuations noted across different regions such as Xinjiang, Yunnan, Fujian, and Sichuan [1]. - Specific price ranges for industrial silicon in Xinjiang are between 8,400-10,000 yuan/ton, while Yunnan shows a range of 8,900-10,300 yuan/ton [1]. - The FOB price for industrial silicon is noted to be between 1,630-1,760 yuan/ton [1]. Transportation Costs - The transportation cost from Ili to Tianjin Port is 500 yuan/ton, and from Kunming to Huangpu Port is 350 yuan/ton [3]. Participating Companies - A list of companies involved in the industrial silicon market is provided, including major players from Xinjiang, Yunnan, Fujian, and Sichuan regions, indicating a diverse participation in the industry [3].
整体库存高位 工业硅期价短期内将转入偏弱震荡
Jin Tou Wang· 2025-08-20 06:10
8月20日,国内期市有色金属板块跌幅居前。其中,工业硅期货主力合约开盘报8500.0元/吨,今日盘中 低位震荡运行;截至午间收盘,工业硅主力最高触及8510.0元,下方探低8180.0元,跌幅达4.05%。 目前来看,工业硅行情呈现震荡下行走势,盘面表现偏弱。对于工业硅后市行情将如何运行,相关机构 观点汇总如下: 华联期货指出,上周供应变动不大,西南硅厂仍有陆续增加开炉,暂未复产企业并无较强开工意向。下 游备货情绪一般,市场成交多以刚需为主。多晶硅企业陆续增产,对工业硅采购计划增加;部分地区铝 合金有减产,铝棒产量降低,综合来看预计本周铝棒产量减少。多晶硅需求增加填补有机硅、铝合金降 低的需求,工业硅需求端变化不大。目前标准仓单持稳,但行业库存仍持续累库,整体库存高位。综合 来看,短期盘面易受政策市场情绪波动,长期来看供需矛盾未有明显改善。操作上建议si2511逢低做 多,参考支撑位8000元/吨,或卖出虚值看跌期权。 铜冠金源期货分析称,基本面上,新疆地区开工率升至57%,川滇地区开工率环比回升,供应端呈现边 际宽松态势;从需求侧来看,多晶硅企业挺价氛围浓厚,但临近签单末期成交相对有限;硅片市场库存 大幅下 ...
永安期货有色早报-20250820
Yong An Qi Huo· 2025-08-20 02:36
Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Views - This week, the macro - sentiment continued to show an increase in risk appetite. Although domestic economic and financial data were poor, the stock market sentiment remained high. In the copper market, downstream orders had support around 7.8, and there were some disturbances in the scrap copper and recycled copper markets. An 8 - month supply - full pattern was expected to lead to a small inventory build - up, but the market might focus more on the tight - balance pattern after the off - season [1]. - For aluminum, supply increased slightly, and the demand in August was in the seasonal off - season, with a possible slight improvement in the middle and late stages. An inventory build - up was expected in August. Attention should be paid to demand and low - inventory situations [2]. - Zinc prices fluctuated widely this week. Supply - side issues included difficulties in the increase of domestic TC and an increase in imported TC. Demand was seasonally weak but had some resilience. Overseas, there might be a phased supply shortage. Short - term strategy was to wait and see, long - term was a short - position configuration, and there were opportunities for positive spreads in different aspects [3]. - Nickel's supply remained high, demand was weak, and inventories were stable. Opportunities for narrowing the nickel - stainless steel price ratio could be continuously monitored [6]. - Stainless steel's supply decreased due to some passive production cuts, demand was mainly for rigid needs with some increased restocking, costs were stable, and inventories decreased slightly. Attention should be paid to future policies [9]. - Lead prices fluctuated this week. Supply - side issues included weak scrap production and high recycled lead costs. Demand was not strong enough to cover the supply increase, and lead prices were expected to remain low and volatile next week [10]. - Tin prices fluctuated widely. Supply - side saw domestic smelter production cuts and uncertain overseas复产. Demand was weak in some areas and there was a risk of squeezing stocks in the LME. Short - term strategy was to short at high prices, and long - term was to hold at low prices near the cost line [12]. - Industrial silicon's production in Xinjiang was less than expected, while that in Sichuan and Yunnan increased slightly. In the short term, there was a small inventory reduction, and in the long term, it was expected to oscillate at the cycle bottom [13]. - Carbonate lithium prices were strong this week due to factors such as inventory reduction and production disturbances. The core contradiction was the long - term over - capacity and short - term resource - side disturbances. In the short term, prices had a large upward elasticity and strong downward support [15]. Summaries by Metals Copper - The spot price, premium, inventory, and import profit data of copper from August 13th to 19th were presented, showing changes in these indicators. The macro - sentiment and fundamental conditions of the copper market were analyzed, and the inventory situation was predicted [1]. Aluminum - Data on aluminum prices, inventory, and import profit from August 15th to 19th were provided. Supply, demand, and inventory trends in August were analyzed [2]. Zinc - Zinc price data from August 13th to 19th were given, including spot price, inventory, and import profit. Supply - side and demand - side situations were analyzed, and strategies for different time horizons were proposed [3]. Nickel - Nickel price data from August 13th to 19th were shown, including spot price, premium, and inventory. Supply, demand, and inventory conditions were analyzed, and investment opportunities were mentioned [6]. Stainless Steel - Price data of different types of stainless steel from August 13th to 19th were provided. Supply, demand, cost, and inventory conditions were analyzed, and policy attention was emphasized [9]. Lead - Lead price data from August 13th to 19th were presented, including spot price, inventory, and import profit. Supply - side and demand - side situations were analyzed, and price trends were predicted [10]. Tin - Tin price data from August 13th to 19th were given, including import and export profits, inventory, and position. Supply - side and demand - side situations were analyzed, and investment strategies were proposed [12]. Industrial Silicon - Industrial silicon price data from August 13th to 19th were provided, including basis and warehouse receipts. Production and inventory situations were analyzed, and short - term and long - term trends were predicted [13]. Carbonate Lithium - Carbonate lithium price data from August 13th to 19th were shown, including spot price, basis, and warehouse receipts. Market factors affecting prices were analyzed, and price trends were predicted [13][15]
国泰君安期货商品研究晨报:绿色金融与新能源-20250820
Guo Tai Jun An Qi Huo· 2025-08-20 01:26
Report Overview - The report is a commodity research morning report on green finance and new energy by Guotai Junan Futures, dated August 20, 2025 [1] 1. Industry Investment Ratings - Not provided in the report 2. Core Views - Nickel: The fundamentals suggest a narrow - range oscillation, and attention should be paid to news - related risks [2][4] - Stainless steel: There is a game between macro - expectations and reality, and steel prices will oscillate [2][4] - Lithium carbonate: It will oscillate within a range, and attention should be paid to supply disturbances [2][10] - Industrial silicon: Market sentiment has weakened [2][14] - Polysilicon: Market news has boosted sentiment [2][15] 3. Summary by Commodity Nickel and Stainless Steel - **Fundamental Data**: The closing price of the Shanghai nickel main contract was 120,330 yuan, down 10 yuan from T - 1. The closing price of the stainless - steel main contract was 12,885 yuan, down 125 yuan from T - 1. There were also detailed data on trading volume, prices of related products in the industrial chain, and profit margins [4] - **News**: Multiple events in the nickel industry, such as potential export restrictions from Canada, new production in Indonesia, environmental issues in Indonesian industrial parks, changes in mining quotas, production suspensions due to losses, and production cuts in Chinese steel mills [4][5][6][7] - **Trend Intensity**: Both nickel and stainless - steel trend intensities are 0, indicating a neutral outlook [9] Lithium Carbonate - **Fundamental Data**: The closing price of the 2509 contract was 87,580 yuan, down 1,720 yuan from T - 1. There were also data on trading volume, open interest, basis, and prices of related products in the lithium - salt industry chain [11] - **News**: The SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate index price increased, and Jiangte Motor's subsidiary resumed production [12][13] - **Trend Intensity**: The trend intensity of lithium carbonate is 0, indicating a neutral outlook [13] Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon - **Fundamental Data**: The Si2511 closing price was 8,625 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan from T - 1. The PS2511 closing price was 52,280 yuan/ton, down 460 yuan from T - 1. There were also data on trading volume, open interest, basis, prices, profits, and inventories of related products [15] - **News**: T1 Energy signed an agreement to purchase purified polysilicon and solar wafers from Corning, with expected deliveries starting in the second half of 2026 [15][17] - **Trend Intensity**: The trend intensity of industrial silicon is - 1 (weak), and that of polysilicon is 1 (strong) [17]
工业硅、多晶硅日评:高位整理-20250820
Hong Yuan Qi Huo· 2025-08-20 01:19
Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Core Viewpoints - Industrial silicon prices are expected to maintain high-level consolidation due to supply increases and mixed demand, with continued attention to silicon enterprise production dynamics [1] - Polysilicon prices are also expected to stay at a high level with large market fluctuations, and it is necessary to continuously monitor macro - sentiment changes and warehouse receipt registration [1] Summary by Related Content Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon Price Changes - The average price of non - oxygenated 553 (East China) industrial silicon remained flat at 9,200 yuan/ton, and the 421 (East China) average price was flat at 9,750 yuan/ton. The futures main contract closing price rose 0.23% to 8,625 yuan/ton [1] - N - type dense material price was flat at 46 yuan/kg, N - type re -投料 price was flat at 47 yuan/kg, N - type mixed material price was flat at 45 yuan/kg, N - type granular silicon price was flat at 44.5 yuan/kg, and the futures main contract closing price fell 0.04% to 52,260 yuan/ton [1] Supply and Demand Analysis - Industrial Silicon - Supply: As silicon prices rise, some previously - overhauled silicon plants in Xinjiang have resumed production. In the southwest, with the arrival of the wet season, power costs have decreased, and enterprise start - up rates are steadily increasing. It is expected that some silicon furnaces will restart in August, and supply will increase steadily [1] - Demand: Polysilicon enterprises continue to reduce production, but some silicon material plants plan to resume production, which will bring some demand increments. An organic silicon plant stopped production for rectification due to an accident, and the recent supply pressure of monomer plants has increased, and prices may be under pressure again. Silicon - aluminum alloy enterprises purchase as needed, and downstream low - level inventory - building willingness is insufficient [1] Supply and Demand Analysis - Polysilicon - Supply: Silicon material enterprises maintain a production - reduction state, but some new production capacity may be put into operation. After offsetting, it is expected that production will increase slightly, reaching nearly 110,000 tons in July and about 130,000 tons in August [1] - Demand: The photovoltaic market is weak, with rising inventories of silicon wafers and silicon materials. Recently, due to the expected increase in polysilicon prices, silicon wafer prices have risen, and the trading atmosphere has improved. However, the terminal market is still weak due to the large - scale pre - installation in the first half of the year [1] Industry News - On August 19, TBEA Co., Ltd. announced that it plans to issue up to 8 billion yuan of convertible corporate bonds to unspecified objects, and the funds will be used for a coal - to - natural - gas project with a total investment of 17.039 billion yuan [1] - From January to June 2025, Shandong Province issued 53.83 million green certificates, a 130.4% increase year - on - year, covering various renewable energy types [1]
瑞达期货工业硅产业日报-20250819
Rui Da Qi Huo· 2025-08-19 09:02
整体而言,三大下游行业对工业硅总需求依旧呈现持平。今日工业硅整体收跌,对于工业硅来说,目前底 研究员: 黄闻杰 期货从业资格号F03142112 期货投资咨询从业证书号Z0021738 工业硅产业日报 2025-08-19 部成本支撑迹象明显,但顶部库存压力依旧,操作上建议,若后期跌破8000元,可以考虑中长线逢低布局多 免责声明 单。 本报告中的信息均来源于公开可获得资料,瑞达期货股份有限公司力求准确可靠,但对这些信息的准确性及完整性不做任 何保证,据此投资,责任自负。本报告不构成个人投资建议,客户应考虑本报告中的任何意见或建议是否符合其特定状况。本 报告版权仅为我公司所有,未经书面许可,任何机构和个人不得以任何形式翻版、复制和发布。如引用、刊发,需注明出处为 瑞达期货股份有限公司研究院,且不得对本报告进行有悖原意的引用、删节和修改。 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货市场 | 主力合约收盘价(日,元/吨) | 8625 | 20 主力合约持仓量(日,手) | 286605 | ...
有色金属周报(工业硅、多晶硅):走势坚挺-20250819
Hong Yuan Qi Huo· 2025-08-19 08:51
Report Industry Investment Rating No information about the report industry investment rating is provided in the content. Core Viewpoints - The fundamentals of industrial silicon show both increasing supply and demand, but the inventory pressure remains significant. Recently, driven by macro - sentiment, the silicon price has been relatively strong and is expected to maintain a high - level consolidation in the short term, with an operating range of 8,000 - 10,000 yuan/ton [2]. - For polysilicon, the supply side has a strong incremental expectation, the demand side has no significant change, the number of warehouse receipts is gradually increasing, but the bullish sentiment is still strong. It is expected that the price will maintain a high - level consolidation in the short term, with an operating range of 44,000 - 55,000 yuan/ton [2]. Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Industrial Silicon Cost & Profit - The prices of silicon coal, petroleum coke, and electrodes have rebounded due to anti - involution sentiment and increased demand. However, as the southwestern production areas enter the wet season, the electricity cost has significantly decreased, weakening the cost support for silicon prices [2]. - In July, the average profit of national industrial silicon 553 was - 1,329 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 1,032 yuan/ton; the average profit of 421 was - 988 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 1,061 yuan/ton [32]. Supply - The number of open furnaces of silicon enterprises has increased overall this week. Northern large factories have gradually resumed supply, and after the cost in the southwestern production areas has decreased, the resumption of production has continued, with the number of open furnaces increasing. The overall supply shows an incremental trend [2]. - On the week of August 14, the number of open furnaces of silicon enterprises increased by 10 compared with the previous week [33]. Demand - The incremental demand mainly comes from the polysilicon sector. As the polysilicon price has reached a high level and the southwestern production areas have entered the wet season, the enthusiasm of enterprises to start work has greatly increased. The polysilicon production in July increased to around 110,000 tons and is expected to increase to about 130,000 tons in August. The organic silicon industry has gradually recovered after some enterprises resumed work after accident - related rectification, with rigid demand for industrial silicon. The demand for silicon - aluminum alloy is weak, with no incremental demand for industrial silicon for the time being [2]. Inventory - The futures price has remained at a high level, and the number of warehouse receipts has been increasing. As silicon enterprises in the southwestern production areas have gradually resumed production, the factory inventories of silicon factories have gradually accumulated [2]. - As of August 14, the social inventory of industrial silicon (social inventory + delivery warehouse) was 545,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 2,000 tons; the total factory inventories of Xinjiang, Yunnan, and Sichuan were 171,200 tons, a month - on - month increase of 1,100 tons. As of August 15, the registered warehouse receipts on the exchange were 50,599 lots, equivalent to 253,000 tons of spot [120]. Market Outlook The fundamentals of industrial silicon show both increasing supply and demand, and the inventory pressure remains significant. Recently, driven by macro - sentiment, the silicon price has been relatively strong and is expected to maintain a high - level consolidation in the short term, with an operating range of 8,000 - 10,000 yuan/ton [2]. 2. Polysilicon Supply - In July, some polysilicon enterprises increased production, mainly concentrated in the southwestern region and Qinghai region, and some enterprises carried out maintenance. After offsetting the increase and decrease, the monthly output is expected to increase to about 110,000 tons. In August, the wet season and high prices will further stimulate the start - up of polysilicon bases, and the monthly output is expected to increase to about 130,000 tons [2]. - The polysilicon production last week was 29,300 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 100 tons. As of August 14, the polysilicon inventory was 242,000 tons, an increase of 9,000 tons [63]. Demand Based on the current latest silicon material price, the silicon wafer quotation still cannot cover the full cost. Considering the weak demand and the gradual stabilization of upstream raw material prices, the silicon wafer price lacks upward momentum. Some battery cell enterprises have accumulated inventory due to reduced orders, and the price has loosened. The end - market has a low acceptance of high prices, and the overseas component export tax - refund stockpiling is basically completed, with components continuing to weaken [2]. Inventory As of August 14, the total polysilicon inventory was 242,000 tons, and the silicon wafer inventory was 19.8 GW. As of August 15, the total number of polysilicon futures warehouse receipts was 5,600 lots, and the number of warehouse receipts increased significantly [2]. Market Outlook The supply side of silicon materials has a strong incremental expectation, the demand side has no significant change, the number of warehouse receipts is gradually increasing, but the bullish sentiment is still strong. It is expected that the price will maintain a high - level consolidation in the short term, with an operating range of 44,000 - 55,000 yuan/ton. Attention should be paid to the macro - sentiment and the implementation of policies [2]. 3. Organic Silicon Supply In July, the operating rate of China's DMC was 67.73%, a month - on - month decrease of 3.22 percentage points, and the DMC output was 199,800 tons, a month - on - month decline [89]. Demand The demand for organic silicon is weak, and the price is declining. As of August 8, the average price of DMC was 11,400 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 6.17%; the average price of 107 glue was 12,250 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 3.92%; the average price of silicone oil was 13,900 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 1.42%. New orders are weak, and monomer factories are selling at reduced prices [95]. 4. Silicon - Aluminum Alloy Supply On the week of August 14, the operating rate of primary aluminum alloy was 56.6%, a month - on - month increase of 1 percentage point; the operating rate of recycled aluminum alloy was 53%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.1 percentage point [104]. Price The price of silicon - aluminum alloy has rebounded. As of August 15, the average price of ADC12 was 20,350 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 0.49%; the average price of A356 was 21,150 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 0.24% [107].