证券研究报告：金融工程报告 发布时间：2025-10-27 研究所 分析师:黄子崟 SAC 登记编号:S1340523090002 Email:huangziyin@cnpsec.com 研究助理:李子凯 SAC 登记编号:S1340124100014 Email:lizikai@cnpsec.com 近期研究报告 《上证强于双创调整空间不大，ETF 资 金持续配置金融地产与 TMT 方向——行 业轮动周 20251019》 – 2025.10.20 《预先调整下大盘很难再现四月波动， 融资资金净流出通信——行业轮动周 报 20251012》 - 2025.10.13 《融资资金持续净流入电子，主板趋势 上行前需耐住寂寞——行业轮动周报 20250928》 - 2025.09.28 《指数震荡反内卷方向领涨，ETF 持续 净流入金融地产——行业轮动周报 20250921》 - 2025.09.22 《成长风格占优，小盘股活跃——中邮 因子周报 20250914》 - 2025.09.15 《金融地产获 ETF 持续净流入，连板情 绪偏修复等待合力方向——行业轮动 周报 20250914》 - 2025.09. ...

中信证券研报指出，二十届四中公报指出，要建设现代化产业体系，巩固壮大实体经济根基，凸显了政 策层对于现代化产业体系和新质生产力的高度关注。本篇报告以此为切入点，重点梳理了近些年我国现 代化体系建设的重要成就以及对于"十五五"时期现代化产业体系发展重点的展望。第一，"十四五"期间 新质生产力对经济贡献明显提升，2023年以来战略性新兴产业对我国经济的贡献已超出地产链。展 望"十五五"时期，预计新能源、新材料、航空航天等战略性新兴产业集群和量子科技等未来产业或迎来 新的政策支持。第二，2021年以来制造业在国民经济占比保持在合理区间。展望"十五五"时期，预计政 策层对于制造业的发展将更为聚焦，化工、机械、造船等传统行业将进一步提质升级，航空航天、生物 制造等领域先进制造业集群或迎来新的发展机遇。第三，近年来科技进步对我国经济增长的贡献率持续 提升。展望"十五五"时期，实现高水平科技自立自强的重要性和紧迫性进一步凸显，预计将强化基础研 究投入，进一步支持"原始创新和关键核心技术攻关"。 ...

带着疑问看德国工业4.0 l = 工业4.0的科学发展观 日 工业4.0对全球制造业的冲击 三 四 对未来制造业的探讨 中国版工业4.0畅想 I 点击 最 下方 关注《材料汇》 ， 点击"❤"和" "并分享 添加 小编微信 ，寻 志同道合 的你 正文 第四次工业革命 信息物理系统 第三次工业革命 基于信息技术实 第二次工业革命 现自动化生产 电力为大规模生 信息物理系统对生产制造以及生产 产提供动力 管理信息系统造成巨大影响，引发 第一次工业革命 1784年第一台 新的工业革命 水和蒸汽为机械 机械织布机 生产提供动力 信息物理系统 = 信息系统 物理系统 + 1700 1750 |1800 1950 2000 2020 带着疑问看德国工业4.0 工业1.0 带着疑问看德国工业4.0 . 工业2.0 带着疑问看德国工业4.0 出台过程 工业4.0平台发布 白皮书(实施计划) 德国科学-产业经济研究联盟与德 国国家科学与工程院(Acatech) 2014年 共同制定工业4.0发展战略 4月 2013年 4月 2012年 管保房发现引礼-郑深固建设 盟 （Forschungsunion 4~10月 2012年 W ...

汉钟精机（002158.SZ） 光伏真空泵有望触底，积极布局 AIDC 业务 中游制造/机械 Q1-Q3 业绩：收入 22.65 亿元，同比-20.7%；归母净利润 3.92 亿元，同比 -45.69%；扣非归母净利润 3.75 亿元，同比-45.61%。 Q3 单季度业绩：收入 7.77 亿元，同比-23.99%，环比-12%；归母净利润 1.34 亿元，同比-50.34%，环比-3.8%；扣非归母净利润 1.27 亿元，同比-51.97%。 ❑ 风险提示：行业需求波动、客户相对集中、市场竞争风险、经营管理风险。 财务数据与估值 | 会计年度 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业总收入(百万元) | 3852 | 3674 | 2989 | 3123 | 3436 | | 同比增长 | 18% | -5% | -19% | 4% | 10% | | 营业利润(百万元) | 1020 | 1012 | 592 | 713 | 792 | | 同比增长 | 32% | -1% | -4 ...

中共中央于10月24日举行新闻发布会，介绍和解读党的二十届四中全会精神。 10月20日至23日，中国共产党第二十届中央委员会第四次全体会议在北京召开。这次全会是在我国即将胜利完成"十四五"主要目标任 务，进入基本实现社会主义现代化夯实基础、全面发力的关键时期召开的一次重要会议。 全会审议通过了《中共中央关于制定国民经济和社会发展第十五个五年规划的建议》（以下简称《建议》），圆满完成了各项议程。 打造新兴支柱产业 国家发展改革委党组书记、主任郑栅洁在新闻发布会上表示，《建议》对"十五五"经济社会发展作出了全面部署。 产业方面，《建议》明确把"建设现代化产业体系，巩固壮大实体经济根基"摆在战略任务的第一条，部署了4方面重点任务，可以 从"固本升级、创新育新、扩容提质、强基增效"4个方面来把握。 《建议》提出推动重点产业提质升级，巩固提升化工、机械、造船等行业在全球产业分工中的地位和竞争力，发展先进制造业集群等 举措，初步估计未来5年会新增10万亿元左右的市场空间，释放出巨大的发展动能和民生红利。 《建议》提出打造新兴支柱产业，加快新能源、新材料、航空航天、低空经济等战略性新兴产业集群发展，这将催生出数个万亿元级 ...

Group 1 - The market is transitioning back to a performance-driven structure, with active funds completing their position adjustments and a shift in understanding of trade disputes [2] - Two new investment themes are emerging: supply chain security benefiting manufacturing companies in China and the expansion of AI from cloud to edge [2] - The "15th Five-Year Plan" indicates a shift from a defensive to an offensive economic strategy, focusing on rapid economic development and high-level technological self-reliance [3][4] Group 2 - The "15th Five-Year Plan" is expected to enhance market risk appetite and provide a clear growth path for A-shares through technological breakthroughs and industrial upgrades [4][6] - Key sectors to focus on include AI, chips, robotics, batteries, innovative pharmaceuticals, and military technology [4][5] - The market is likely to maintain a strong performance due to multiple favorable factors, including new policy deployments and improved corporate earnings [6][7] Group 3 - The "15th Five-Year Plan" optimizes the path for China's economic transformation, making long-term optimistic expectations more feasible [5][10] - The focus on strategic emerging industries such as AI, robotics, and semiconductors is expected to drive market opportunities [5][11] - The upcoming economic policies and the emphasis on modern industrial systems are likely to attract long-term capital inflows, supporting market stability [8][10] Group 4 - The market is expected to continue its upward trend in the coming months, driven by policy catalysts and stabilizing corporate earnings [9][10] - The "slow bull" trend in A-shares is anticipated to persist, with a focus on large technology sectors and AI applications [11] - The recovery of global manufacturing and the potential for domestic demand improvement are seen as key opportunities for investment [12]

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the importance of building a modern industrial system and strengthening the foundation of the real economy as a primary task in China's 14th Five-Year Plan, with a focus on high-quality development and innovation-driven growth [2][3]. Group 1: Modern Industrial System - The construction of a modern industrial system is prioritized in the 14th Five-Year Plan, with a focus on solidifying and expanding the real economy [2][3]. - Key tasks include upgrading traditional industries, fostering new and future industries, and enhancing the quality and efficiency of the manufacturing sector [3][5]. - The manufacturing sector is projected to contribute significantly to global manufacturing growth, with an expected increase in value added from 26.6 trillion yuan to 33.6 trillion yuan during the 14th Five-Year Plan [4]. Group 2: Traditional Industries - Traditional industries account for approximately 80% of the manufacturing sector's value added, serving as the foundation of China's industrial system [5]. - The government aims to enhance the competitiveness of key traditional industries such as chemicals, machinery, and shipbuilding, with an estimated market space increase of around 10 trillion yuan over the next five years [5]. Group 3: Emerging Industries - The plan includes the development of strategic emerging industries such as new energy, new materials, and aerospace, which are expected to create several trillion-yuan markets [7]. - The focus on innovation and reform is crucial for the growth of emerging industries, which currently represent only about 13.4% of GDP compared to traditional industries [8]. Group 4: State-Owned Enterprises - Central enterprises have invested approximately 8.6 trillion yuan in strategic emerging industries since the beginning of the 14th Five-Year Plan, with a projected revenue of over 11 trillion yuan in 2024 [9]. - The government encourages state-owned enterprises to concentrate capital in emerging industries to enhance competitiveness and ensure strategic security in critical areas [10][11].

量化周报 市场站稳支撑线 2025 年 10 月 26 日 ➢ 风险提示：量化结论基于历史统计，如若未来市场环境发生变化不排除失效 可能。 [Table_Author] | 分析师 | 叶尔乐 | | --- | --- | | 执业证书： S0100522110002 | | | 邮箱： | yeerle@glms.com.cn | | 分析师 | 关舒丹 | | 执业证书： S0100524060004 | | | 邮箱： | guanshudan@glms.com.cn | | 分析师 | 祝子涵 | | 执业证书： S0100525030005 | | | 邮箱： | zhuzihan@glms.com.cn | | 研究助理 裴钰琪 | | | 执业证书： S0100124060004 | | | 邮箱： | peiyuqi@glms.com.cn | 相关研究 ➢ 择时观点：市场站稳支撑线。当下流动性处下行趋势，分歧度处上行趋势， 景气度保持稳中有升，三维择时框架继续保持震荡下跌判断。从技术形态来看， 沪深 300 跌破上升趋势线后两次测试 4500 附近支撑线成功，或将继续横盘整 理。威科夫形态 ...

今年以来，厦门市全面贯彻落实党的二十大和二十届历次全会精神，深入学习贯彻习近平总书记在福建、厦门考察时的重要讲话精神，持续深化拓展"三 争"行动，奋力拼搏、奋勇争先，着力稳就业、稳企业、稳市场、稳预期，前三季度全市经济保持稳中向好态势，实现地区生产总值6418.1亿元，同比增 长5.7%，结构持续优化，新质生产力加快培育，民生福祉持续提升，经济实现质的有效提升和量的合理增长。 点击查看 增长势头稳固 发展根基持续夯实 聚焦稳增长、促发展 全面落实一揽子存量和增量政策 精准帮扶受冲击行业和企业 深入实施提振消费专项行动 全力稳外贸稳投资 今年来兑现惠企资金超130亿元 有力支撑我市经济稳增长 鹭江两岸风光。（本报记者 王火炎 摄） 我市经济增势良好 主要体现"三个稳"： 一是运行态势稳 三是经济支撑稳 1-9月，全市工业用电同比增长8.3%，空港旅客吞吐量同比增长5.9%，航空货运量同比增长8.3%，企业中长期贷款同比增长8.1%，人流、物流、资金流高 活跃度表明我市经济增长基础不断夯实。 创新动能强劲 新质生产力加快发展 聚焦培育壮大新质生产力 持续优化产业结构 出台深化拓展科技创新引领工程12条措施 前三季 ...

Group 1 - The "14th Five-Year Plan" optimizes the path for China's economic transformation, enhancing long-term market expectations and making them easier to develop [3][5][8] - Clear recognition of China's advantages includes the "socialist system advantage," "super-large market advantage," "complete industrial system advantage," and "rich talent resource advantage" [3][5][6] - The importance of external circulation for China's economic transformation has been further confirmed, emphasizing a "high-level opening up" strategy [6][7] Group 2 - Internal circulation governance optimization is focused on increasing the resident consumption rate and optimizing resource allocation [7][8] - Future regional industrial layouts may show significant differentiation, allowing for targeted talent strategies and urbanization efforts [8] - The internal governance approach aims to enhance total factor productivity through technological advancements [8] Group 3 - Short-term market judgment remains that technology growth adjustments are nearing completion, with expectations for technology to lead the market in Q4 2025 [9][10] - The structural characteristics of the A-share market in the five-year planning year highlight AI, robotics, and semiconductors as key directions [11][12] - The "14th Five-Year Plan" presents opportunities in emerging industries and future industries, including new energy, quantum technology, and integrated circuits [12]