宏观研究 证 券 研 究 报 告 【宏观专题】 宽松过峰，股债重估 ❖ 核心观点 1、由于总量政策"摆脱超常规"叠加央行"优化供给，做优增量、盘活存量" 的表述，我们预计短期政府债增速和贷款增速或边际回落，这一过程或带来一 季度 M2 同比的持续下行。 2、考虑到近期市场波动率的小幅提升，居民存款加速搬家的概率不高的前提 下，M2 同比的回落会引致宏观流动性最宽松的时刻正在过去，历史经验来看， 这会对资产估值造成冲击。 3、但是本轮宏观流动性最宽松时段过去与历史相比存在三点不同： ①从基本面来看，当下基本面景气最确定的是中游，由于中游需求更依赖海外， 其景气相对独立，因此国内流动性的松紧对其需求影响不大，反而有助于其供 给侧的加速收缩。在这个视角下，国内流动性收缩对中游利润预期冲击不大。 ②从资产配置来看，绝对视角下，国际经验展示当下十债收益率仍低于国际合 理空间，相对视角下，我们的股债比价指标（股债夏普比率差值）仍显示当下 股票更具配置优势。因此如果流动性收缩冲击偏"贵"的资产的话，只要经济 循环仍在边际改善，那么债券反而是当下"偏贵"的资产。 ③如果经济遭遇突发事件打破循环，国内政策有望随时加码改善流动性 ...

Market Overview - The A-share market experienced a slight increase, with the Shanghai Composite Index rising by 0.04% to close at 3965.28, marking a "nine consecutive days" upward trend [1][4] - The Shenzhen Component Index and the ChiNext Index fell by 0.49% and 0.66%, respectively, indicating mixed performance across major indices [2][4] Sector Performance - The top-performing sectors included Oil & Petrochemicals (1.48%), Defense & Military (1.43%), and Banks (1.03%), while the worst-performing sectors were Nonferrous Metals (-1.95%) and Utilities (-1.24%) [3][4] - Concept indices showed strong performance in PEEK Materials (3.23%) and Carbon Fiber (2.52%), while Dairy (-1.90%) and Lithium Extraction (-1.89%) lagged behind [3][4] Future Outlook - The market is expected to continue its upward trend following a phase of adjustment, with a focus on improving liquidity and trading activity as year-end institutional reallocation occurs [6] - Key factors influencing the market include the selection of the new Federal Reserve chair and the implementation of domestic monetary and fiscal policies [6] - A balanced allocation strategy is recommended, with attention to sectors such as Nonferrous Metals, Technology Growth, New Energy, and Dividend Stocks [6] Fiscal Policy Insights - The Ministry of Finance announced a continuation of a more proactive fiscal policy in 2026, emphasizing the need to boost consumption through increased fiscal spending and optimized government bond tools [5] - Specific actions include enhancing the effectiveness of transfer payment funds and improving expenditure structures to support key areas [5]

Market Performance - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3959.62, up by 0.47% with an increase of 18.67 points [2] - The Shenzhen Component Index closed at 13531.41, up by 0.33% with an increase of 44.99 points [2] - The CSI 300 Index closed at 4642.54, up by 0.18% with an increase of 8.48 points [2] - The ChiNext Index closed at 3239.34, up by 0.30% with an increase of 9.77 points [2] - The STAR 50 Index closed at 1349.06, down by 0.23% with a decrease of 3.07 points [2] Sector Rankings - The top five sectors by growth include Defense and Military Industry (2.91%), Light Industry Manufacturing (1.59%), Machinery Equipment (1.51%), Automotive (1.46%), and Non-Bank Financials (1.08%) [3] - The bottom five sectors by decline include Comprehensive (-1.12%), Nonferrous Metals (-0.77%), Retail (-0.47%), Coal (-0.24%), and Banking (-0.18%) [3] Market Outlook - The market showed a collective rise with the Shanghai Composite Index achieving seven consecutive days of gains [4] - The People's Bank of China emphasized the continuation of a moderately loose monetary policy and the importance of maintaining capital market stability [5] - The trading volume in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets reached 1.92 trillion, an increase of 443 billion from the previous trading day [5] - The offshore RMB against the USD broke the 7.0 mark for the first time since September 2024, which is expected to enhance the attractiveness of RMB assets [5] - Key sectors to focus on include dividends, TMT (Technology, Media, and Telecommunications), and consumer sectors [5]

Group 1: Core Views - The article emphasizes the importance of central enterprises as the main force in technological innovation, focusing on overcoming key technological challenges and enhancing the country's strategic capabilities in science and technology [3][4][5]. Group 2: Technological Innovation - Central enterprises have made significant investments in R&D, exceeding 1 trillion yuan annually for three consecutive years, targeting critical technologies such as industrial mother machines and software [3]. - The focus is on increasing high-quality technological supply and achieving breakthroughs in areas where other enterprises lack the capability or willingness to invest [4]. Group 3: Results Transformation - There is a strong emphasis on accelerating the transformation of technological achievements into practical applications, with initiatives to establish major pilot platforms and enhance procurement of first models and batches [5]. - The goal is to help more innovative results enter the market and create tangible productivity [5]. Group 4: Innovation Ecosystem - The article discusses the need to build a high-level innovation ecosystem by promoting deep integration of industry, academia, and research, and enhancing international cooperation [5]. Group 5: State-Owned Enterprise Reform - The article outlines the necessity for further reform of state-owned enterprises (SOEs) to enhance their core functions and competitiveness, focusing on strategic security and public service [7]. - It highlights the importance of clarifying the functional positioning of various SOEs and concentrating capital in key industries related to national security and public welfare [7]. Group 6: Economic Layout Optimization - Central enterprises are encouraged to focus on upgrading traditional industries and nurturing emerging sectors, with an average annual investment growth rate of over 20% in new industries during the "14th Five-Year Plan" period [10]. - The article stresses the need for a digital transformation of traditional industries and the integration of advanced technologies such as AI and big data [10]. Group 7: Future Industry Development - The article calls for targeted actions in key areas such as new energy, aerospace, and platform economy, while also planning for future technologies like quantum science and 6G [11]. Group 8: Investment and Financing System - There is a focus on building a professional and market-oriented investment and financing system to support the development of the real economy, utilizing various financial tools and establishing a comprehensive investment decision-making mechanism [12].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights the strong continuation of the Hainan Free Trade Zone concept, with multiple stocks such as Hainan Development, Hainan Airlines Group, and others reaching their daily price limits [1] - Since the official launch of the Hainan Free Trade Port's full island closure operation on December 18, the duty-free sales in Sanya have exceeded 100 million yuan for four consecutive days, with sales figures of 118 million, 105 million, 108 million, and 102 million yuan respectively [1] - On December 19, the cumulative sales for the year in Sanya surpassed 20 billion yuan [1]

据交易所数据显示，12月23日，截至伦交所收盘（伦敦时间16:30），英国富时100指数下跌0.37%，知 名英股多数上涨。 涨幅居前的个股包括： 作者：行情君 洛克霍普勘探上涨8.22%，报76.4便士/股，成交额3.04亿，总市值493.71亿便士（约4.94亿英镑）。 泛非资源上涨5.54%，报118.2便士/股，成交额5.74亿，总市值2396.28亿便士（约23.96亿英镑）。 西班牙对外银行上涨3.96%，报20.2便士/股，成交额367.55万，总市值0.0便士（约23.96亿英镑）。 威严葡萄酒上涨3.51%，报70.8便士/股，成交额1116.05万，总市值50.78亿便士（约0.51亿英镑）。 阿斯顿马丁上涨3.39%，报64.05便士/股，成交额3597.84万，总市值648.48亿便士（约6.48亿英镑）。 跌幅居前的个股包括： 兰科集团下跌5.5%，报99.6便士/股，成交额9062.43万，总市值466.56亿便士（约4.67亿英镑）。 帝亚吉欧(UK)下跌3.46%，报1620.5便士/股，成交额69.98亿，总市值36079.02亿便士（约360.79亿英 镑）。 DCI AD ...

Core Viewpoint - The Chinese government is prioritizing the expansion of domestic demand and strengthening the domestic circulation to stabilize economic growth, with consumer spending playing a crucial role in this strategy [1]. Group 1: Economic Growth and Consumer Contribution - In the first three quarters of 2025, China's GDP grew by 5.2% year-on-year, with final consumption expenditure contributing 53.5% to economic growth, an increase of 9 percentage points compared to the previous year [1]. - The Central Economic Work Conference emphasized the importance of expanding domestic demand and optimizing supply as key tasks for economic work in the coming year [1]. Group 2: Consumer Demand and Retail Performance - From January to November 2025, the total retail sales of consumer goods increased by 4.0% year-on-year, surpassing the 3.5% growth rate of 2024 [2]. - The service retail sector saw a year-on-year growth of 5.4%, indicating a stable growth trend [2]. - The "old-for-new" policy for consumer goods has been expanded, leading to over 2.5 trillion yuan in sales and benefiting more than 360 million people [2]. Group 3: New Consumption Trends - New types of service consumption, such as travel, culture, entertainment, and health, have become popular, with significant increases in domestic travel during holidays [3]. - The online retail of physical goods grew by 5.7% year-on-year, accounting for 25.9% of total retail sales, indicating a shift towards e-commerce [3]. - The retail sales of new energy passenger vehicles increased by 33.3%, with a penetration rate of 50.2% in the first half of 2025 [3]. Group 4: Supply-Side Innovations and CPI Trends - The Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose by 0.7% year-on-year in November 2025, reflecting improvements in product and service quality due to innovation [4]. - The number of new consumer goods registered in 2024 exceeded 21.63 million, marking a significant increase in supply-side innovation [4]. Group 5: Challenges in Consumer Market - Despite the potential and resilience of the consumer market, there are structural contradictions, such as consumer spending growth lagging behind income growth [6]. - The growth rate of service consumption spending has slowed, which may hinder the upgrading of consumption structure [7]. - The consumer market is increasingly segmented, with distinct consumption patterns emerging among different income groups [7]. Group 6: Policy Recommendations for Consumption Growth - To boost consumption, policies should focus on enhancing employment, increasing income, and stabilizing expectations [9]. - The "old-for-new" policy should be optimized to stimulate service consumption, particularly in sectors like tourism and elderly care [10]. - A supportive mechanism combining policy support, digital empowerment, and industrial fund support should be established to foster innovation in consumption [11].

Core Viewpoint - The consumer market in Beijing showed improvement in the first eleven months of the year, with total consumption increasing by 1.4% year-on-year, reflecting a slight recovery in the market [3]. Group 1: Service Consumption - Service consumption in Beijing grew steadily, with a year-on-year increase of 4.8% from January to November. The integration of digital technology into consumer services has led to double-digit growth in information services, driven by internet live streaming, gaming, and lifestyle services [4]. - The tourism sector remained active, with significant increases in air and rail passenger volumes, and revenues from travel agencies and related services grew by over 10% [4]. - The cultural and entertainment services sector saw a richer supply, with box office revenues from movies and performances achieving double-digit growth [4]. Group 2: Retail Sales - The total retail sales of consumer goods in Beijing reached 12,492.9 billion yuan, representing a year-on-year decline of 3.1%, but the decline was narrowed by 0.1 percentage points compared to the previous month [5]. - Among major retail categories, sales of gold and silver jewelry and cosmetics grew by 40.5% and 12.3%, respectively. Sales of home appliances and audio-visual equipment increased by 1.3% due to the old-for-new consumption policy [5]. - Basic living goods such as grain and oil saw retail sales increase by 6.9%, while daily necessities grew by 1.2%. However, sales of communication equipment and cultural office supplies declined by 17.4% and 0.8%, respectively [5]. - The automotive market faced challenges, with sales of traditional fuel vehicles declining by 14.8% and petroleum products down by 16.9%. In contrast, sales of new energy vehicles increased by 8.3%, supported by the old-for-new policy and local consumption vouchers [5]. Group 3: Market Outlook - Overall, the Beijing consumer market maintained growth, and the trend of upgrading consumption structure remains unchanged. Future actions will focus on implementing measures to boost consumption, stabilize employment, and expand the supply of quality goods and services to stimulate new consumption vitality [6].

Summary of Key Points Core Viewpoint - As of December 11, the latest market financing balance is 24,901.46 billion yuan, showing a decrease of 62.60 billion yuan compared to the previous trading day. Industry Analysis - **Industries with Increased Financing Balance**: - The agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry, and fishery sector saw the largest increase, with a financing balance up by 4.59 billion yuan, totaling 301.18 billion yuan, reflecting a growth rate of 1.55% [1] - Other sectors with notable increases include retail trade (up 3.88 billion yuan), light industry manufacturing (up 1.92 billion yuan), and real estate (up 1.70 billion yuan) [1] - **Industries with Decreased Financing Balance**: - A total of 21 industries experienced a decrease, with the communication sector seeing the largest drop of 16.52 billion yuan, followed by non-ferrous metals (down 13.26 billion yuan) and automotive (down 8.93 billion yuan) [2] - The latest financing balances for the sectors with the most significant decreases are 1,163.46 billion yuan for communication, 1,213.02 billion yuan for non-ferrous metals, and 1,184.14 billion yuan for automotive, with respective declines of 1.40%, 1.08%, and 0.75% [2] Detailed Financing Balance Changes - **Top Increasing Industries**: - Agriculture, Forestry, Animal Husbandry, and Fishery: 301.18 billion yuan, +4.59 billion yuan, +1.55% [1] - Retail Trade: 283.37 billion yuan, +3.88 billion yuan, +1.39% [1] - Light Industry Manufacturing: 150.81 billion yuan, +1.92 billion yuan, +1.29% [1] - Real Estate: 363.71 billion yuan, +1.70 billion yuan, +0.47% [1] - **Top Decreasing Industries**: - Communication: 1,163.46 billion yuan, -16.52 billion yuan, -1.40% [2] - Non-Ferrous Metals: 1,213.02 billion yuan, -13.26 billion yuan, -1.08% [2] - Automotive: 1,184.14 billion yuan, -8.93 billion yuan, -0.75% [2]

Group 1 - The core view of the report indicates that the convertible bond market is expected to maintain a trend of oscillation and upward movement in 2026, with equity markets experiencing a "slow bull" market, leading to continued activity in equity and balanced convertible bonds [5][8] - The supply-demand situation for convertible bonds in 2026 is projected to be tight, with new bonds being issued to meet corresponding allocation needs after some bonds are redeemed or mature [5][14] - Institutional investors' holdings of convertible bonds have increased, indicating strong demand for allocation in a market characterized by asset scarcity [5][30] Group 2 - The report highlights that the domestic bond interest rates are expected to exhibit an "N" shaped trend in 2026, with a moderate impact on convertible bonds [47][48] - The report suggests that the funding side is likely to become the main driver of the stock market in 2026, with policies aimed at increasing the entry of long-term funds into the market [59][60] - The report recommends focusing on convertible bonds related to emerging pillar industries, future industries, and the construction of a new energy system, in line with the "14th Five-Year Plan" [61][62]