Core Viewpoint - The Reducing Volatility Dividend ETF (512890) has seen significant inflows and growth in fund size, driven by the performance of major banks and a favorable investment environment for dividend assets [1][3]. Fund Performance - On July 11, the Reducing Volatility Dividend ETF (512890) closed down 0.89% with a trading volume of 914 million yuan, while the overall weekly performance was up 0.66% with a total trading volume of 2.54 billion yuan [1]. - The fund has attracted over 520 million yuan in net inflows over four consecutive trading days, reaching a record high in fund size of 20.535 billion yuan as of July 10 [1][3]. Market Context - The banking sector continues to rise, with the stock prices of the four major banks breaking previous highs and setting historical records [1]. - Current dividend assets are considered valuable in a declining interest rate environment, with recommendations to focus on stocks with a dividend yield above 3% and low ROE volatility [1][3]. Fund Characteristics - The Reducing Volatility Dividend ETF (512890) was established on December 19, 2018, and has consistently achieved positive returns every full year since its inception, making it one of the few ETFs in the A-share market with such a track record [3]. - As of June 30, the fund ranked first in its category for five-year returns [3]. Holdings Overview - The fund's top holdings include Chengdu Bank, Yagor, and Shanghai Bank, with significant increases in their respective positions [4]. - The total market value of the top holdings amounts to approximately 3.722 billion yuan, representing 25.19% of the fund's net value [4]. Investment Opportunities - There are opportunities for rebound in sectors that have seen declines of over 4% since the beginning of the year, such as refining trade, white goods, and infrastructure [1]. - Financial stocks are transitioning from being undervalued to becoming a dynamic benchmark, with their low volatility and dividend yields exceeding 6% making them a core investment direction [1].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint emphasizes that Russian oil companies are required to promptly resume refinery production after completing repairs [1]

Core Viewpoint - Digital transformation and intelligent development are essential for companies to adapt to the digital economy, enhancing core functions and competitiveness Group 1: Intelligent Value Chain - The company focuses on maximizing overall efficiency through the development of an "intelligent value chain" that emphasizes data-driven and AI-enabled production management [1] - It aims to optimize the enterprise resource planning (ERP) system and improve financial decision-making processes to ensure better resource allocation and faster performance improvement [1] - The company is enhancing its marketing strategies by improving market information systems and customizing production to meet specific demands [1] Group 2: Intelligent Product Chain - The company is committed to creating an "intelligent product chain" that enhances production efficiency through smart scheduling and command systems [2] - It aims to achieve a self-control rate of over 99.5% for its equipment and over 80% coverage of advanced control systems [2] - The company is expanding the use of industrial robots and AR technology to improve operational efficiency and reduce costs and risks [2] Group 3: Intelligent Asset Chain - The company is enhancing equipment management through intelligent systems, aiming for 100% predictive maintenance coverage for critical equipment [3] - It is implementing advanced online monitoring and corrosion prevention strategies to optimize maintenance planning and reduce costs [3] - The company is automating its power systems and transitioning from manned to unmanned operations [3] Group 4: Intelligent Innovation Chain - The company is focusing on technology innovation by leveraging AI and large models to assist in research and development processes [4] - It aims to create a comprehensive management system for intellectual property and enhance the efficiency of technology service capabilities [4] - The company is targeting the development of high-value products that meet domestic needs while aligning with international standards [4] Group 5: Intelligent Governance Chain - The company is modernizing its management mechanisms by establishing an AI management application matrix across all business lines [5] - It is promoting smart office solutions and creating a comprehensive application matrix for various business scenarios [5] - The company is enhancing data security measures and establishing a robust network to protect sensitive information [5]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" [2][9]. Core Insights - The company is investing a total of 6.144 billion in the construction of the Changcaodong open-pit coal mine in Xinjiang, which will have an annual coal production capacity of 5 million tons, enhancing its integrated layout in the region [9]. - The project is expected to generate an average annual output value of approximately 1.8 billion and an average annual after-tax profit of 442 million, with a payback period of 10.42 years [9]. - The company aims to improve the supply of raw materials for its polyester fiber business and ensure stable fuel supply for local production facilities in Xinjiang [9]. - The company has strategically positioned itself in the Xinjiang market, leveraging the region's abundant and low-cost raw material resources to enhance its polyester industry chain [9]. - Revenue forecasts for the company are projected to be 110.68 billion, 119.58 billion, and 131.51 billion for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, with net profits expected to reach 2.095 billion, 3.606 billion, and 4.698 billion in the same years [7][9]. Financial Metrics Summary - The company’s revenue for 2023 is reported at 82.64 billion, with a projected increase to 101.31 billion in 2024 and 110.68 billion in 2025 [10]. - The earnings per share (EPS) are expected to grow from 0.33 in 2023 to 0.87 in 2025, and further to 1.95 by 2027 [7][10]. - The price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio is projected to decrease from 32.07 in 2023 to 12.20 in 2025, indicating a potential increase in valuation attractiveness [7][10]. - The book value per share (BPS) is expected to rise from 14.75 in 2023 to 16.03 in 2025, reflecting a strengthening financial position [7][10].

证券研究报告 大炼化周报：长丝价格继续下跌，库存增加 能源化工首席证券分析师：陈淑娴，CFA 执业证书编号：S0600523020004 联系方式：chensx@dwzq.com.cn 能源化工研究助理：周少玟 执业证书编号：S0600123070007 联系方式：zhoushm@dwzq.com.cn 2025年7月6日 请务必阅读正文之后的免责声明部分 投资要点 2 ◼ 【国内外重点炼化项目价差跟踪】国内重点大炼化项目本周价差为2673元/吨，环比+0元/吨（环比+0%）；国外 重点大炼化项目本周价差为1124元/吨，环比-117元/吨（环比-9%）。 ◼ 【聚酯板块】本周POY/FDY/DTY行业均价分别为6989/7250/8268元/吨，环比分别-186/-229/-161元/吨， POY/FDY/DTY行业周均利润为64/-29/50元/吨，环比分别+1/-27/+18元/吨，POY/FDY/DTY行业库存为 21.7/22.4/28.6天，环比分别+4.5/+3.5/+3.3天，长丝开工率为90.9%，环比+0.4pct。下游方面，本周织机开工 率为58.1%，环比-0.9pct，织造企业原料库 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on the oil and petrochemical industry, indicating a "Buy" rating for specific companies within the sector [4][5]. Core Insights - OPEC has announced an unexpected production increase of 548,000 barrels per day for August, but the actual impact of this increase remains to be observed [4][5]. - The upstream sector is experiencing a downward trend in oil prices, with Brent crude oil futures closing at $68.3 per barrel, reflecting a week-on-week increase of 0.78% [4][18]. - The refining sector is seeing mixed results, with overseas refined oil crack spreads declining, while olefin price spreads show varied trends [4][47]. - The polyester sector is facing profitability challenges, but there are expectations for recovery as supply and demand improve [4][13]. Summary by Sections Upstream Sector - OPEC's actual production increase has been lower than expected, with April's total production at approximately 31.1 million barrels per day, a decrease of 210,000 barrels from the previous month [4][8]. - The U.S. oil rig count decreased to 539, down 8 from the previous week and down 46 year-on-year [31][32]. - The report anticipates a widening supply-demand trend in crude oil, with potential downward pressure on prices, but expects prices to stabilize at mid-high levels due to OPEC's production cuts and shale oil cost support [4][18]. Refining Sector - The Singapore refining margin for major products was $14.01 per barrel, down $2.46 from the previous week [51]. - The U.S. gasoline RBOB-WTI spread was $22.37 per barrel, up $0.53 from the previous week, with a historical average of $24.86 per barrel [56]. - The report suggests that refining profitability may improve as economic recovery progresses, despite current low levels [4][47]. Polyester Sector - The PTA price has seen a decline, with the average price in East China at 4,971.4 yuan per ton, down 3.26% week-on-week [4][13]. - The report highlights a potential recovery in the polyester industry, with expectations for improved profitability as supply-demand dynamics shift positively [4][13]. Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on leading companies in the polyester sector such as Tongkun Co. and Wankai New Materials, as well as top refining companies like Hengli Petrochemical and Sinopec [4][13]. - It also suggests that the upstream exploration and development sector remains robust, with high capital expenditure expected to continue, particularly for offshore oil service companies [4][13].

Group 1: Coal Industry - In June 2025, coal prices are lower than the same period last year, leading to a forecast of a year-on-year decline in industry profits for July 2025, maintaining a neutral outlook for the coal industry [3]. Group 2: Livestock Farming - As of the end of May 2025, the number of breeding sows is 40.42 million, showing a slight month-on-month increase. It is predicted that the supply and demand for pigs will balance in Q4 2025, with pork prices expected to stabilize at the bottom while waiting for a significant reduction in production capacity [4]. Group 3: Steel Industry - A forecast for June 2025 indicates a year-on-year negative growth in profits for the general steel industry. The rolling average of PMI has not exceeded the threshold, maintaining a neutral signal for the steel industry [5]. Group 4: Construction Materials and Engineering - In June 2025, the gross profit of float glass is expected to decline year-on-year, maintaining a neutral signal for the glass industry. The cement industry is predicted to see year-on-year profit growth in June 2025, awaiting positive signals from new housing starts, also maintaining a neutral outlook for the cement industry [5]. - The manufacturing PMI rolling average is stabilizing, while year-on-year data for commercial housing sales shows a slight decline. Economic data remains stable, and expectations for infrastructure support are unlikely to materialize, maintaining a neutral signal for the construction and decoration industry [5]. Group 5: Fuel Refining and Oil Services - A forecast for June 2025 suggests that profits in the fuel refining industry will remain roughly flat year-on-year, maintaining a neutral outlook. Oil prices have not yet formed an upward trend year-on-year, and new drilling activities are also stable year-on-year, leading to a neutral outlook for oil services [6].

2025 年 7 月 2 日 总量研究 能繁母猪存栏微增，炼化行业景气度同比持稳 ——金融工程行业景气月报 20250702 要点 行业景气度信号追踪 煤炭：25 年 6 月，煤价低于上年同期，我们预测 25 年 7 月行业利润同比下降， 维持煤炭行业中性观点。 畜牧养殖：25 年 5 月底能繁母猪存栏为 4042 万头，环比微增。据此我们预测 25Q4 生猪供需平衡，猪肉价格底部震荡，等待产能明显去化阶段。 普钢：我们预测 25 年 6 月普钢行业利润同比负增长。PMI 滚动均值环比未超阈 值，维持普钢行业中性信号。 结构材料与建筑工程：我们测算 25 年 6 月浮法玻璃毛利同比下降，维持玻璃行 业中性信号；我们预测水泥行业 25 年 6 月利润同比正增长，等待房屋新开工面 积出现积极信号，维持水泥行业中性观点；制造业 PMI 滚动均值企稳，商品房 销售数据同比微降，经济数据维持企稳态势，预计基建托底预期难以发酵，维持 建筑装饰行业中性信号。 燃料型炼化与油服：我们预测燃料型炼化行业 25 年 6 月利润同比大体持平，维 持中性观点。油价尚未形成同比上行趋势，新钻井同比大体持平，维持油服中性 观点。 风险分 ...

Core Viewpoint - The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) reported a significant decrease in U.S. oil imports from Saudi Arabia in April, attributed to maintenance at the Motiva Port Arthur refinery [1] Group 1: Import Data - U.S. oil imports from Saudi Arabia fell to approximately 174,000 barrels per day in April [1] - This represents a month-over-month decline of about 11% [1] - Year-over-year, the imports decreased sharply by 49% [1] Group 2: Contributing Factors - The decline in imports is primarily due to maintenance activities at the Motiva Port Arthur refinery [1]

Group 1 - Fengcai Technology is conducting an H-share issuance with a maximum price of 120.50 HKD per share, aiming to raise funds for its specialized chip business [1] - The global offering consists of 16.3 million shares, with 1.63 million shares available for public offering in Hong Kong [1] - Zijin Mining plans to acquire the Raygorodok gold mine project in Kazakhstan for 1.2 billion USD, enhancing its resource portfolio [1][2] Group 2 - Mindray Medical's shareholder plans to reduce holdings by up to 5 million shares, approximately 0.41% of the total share capital, due to personal funding needs [3] - Degute is planning to acquire control of Haowei Technology through a combination of cash and share issuance, leading to a temporary suspension of its stock [4] - New Dairy's controlling shareholder intends to reduce its stake by up to 3% of the total share capital, also for funding purposes [5] Group 3 - Yueyang Xinchang has resumed production after completing maintenance on its main production facilities, positively impacting its operations [6] - Chengdu Xian Dao has terminated its major asset restructuring plan due to failure to reach agreement on key terms [7] - Maglev Technology's shareholder plans to reduce its stake by up to 3% of the total share capital for personal financial arrangements [9] Group 4 - Zhongyan Dadi announced a cash dividend of 2.82 CNY per 10 shares and a capital increase of 3.99 shares per 10 shares [10] - Yunda Co. plans to distribute a cash dividend of 0.6 CNY per 10 shares, totaling approximately 47.22 million CNY [12] - Victory Co. intends to distribute a cash dividend of 0.42 CNY per 10 shares, amounting to around 36.06 million CNY [13] Group 5 - Shagang Group has invested 2.67 billion CNY in financial products while planning to use up to 8 billion CNY of idle funds for further investments [14] - Jiuyuan Yinhai's subsidiary won an 8.43 million CNY project contract, constituting a related party transaction [15] - China Railway Signal & Communication has announced the resignation of a board member due to personal reasons [16] Group 6 - China Rare Earth clarified that recent management changes have not affected its operations, ensuring stability in production [17] - Qixiang Tengda plans to conduct routine maintenance on its 60,000-ton acetone plant for 60 days to enhance operational safety [19] - ST King Kong's subsidiary signed a 399 million CNY contract for computing power services, indicating growth in its service offerings [20] Group 7 - Ziguang Guowei repurchased 775,500 shares for approximately 49.62 million CNY, reflecting confidence in its market position [22] - Qin Port's major shareholder plans to reduce its stake by up to 2% of the total share capital for development needs [22] - Longqi Technology has submitted an application for H-share issuance and listing on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange, expanding its market presence [24]