| 零售 分时 最新: 2157.181 | | --- | | 2154 | | 2150 | | 2147 | | 2143 | | 2140 | | 2136 | | 2132 | | 2129 | | 2125 | | 2121 | | 2117 | | 2114 | | 2110 | | 2106 里: 521112 J 8994 128994 | | 87071 | | 43535 | | X10 | 盘面上，摩尔线程、CPO、存储器、锂矿、算力、消费电子、半导体概念跌幅靠前。 09:34 零售板块直线拉升，百大集团涨停，茂业商业、东百集团、赫美集团、爱婴室、永辉超市等纷纷走高。 09:30 存储芯片板块多股低开，香农芯创跌超8%，江波龙跌超6%，迈为股份、德明利等跟跌。 | | 761.00 -53.88 -6.61% | | | 警不线程-U① 立即 | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | | 688795 交易 | | | | | SSE CNY 9:25:02 交易中 查看L2全景 | | | 疑似减持受限 成 融 ...

Report 1: Steel Industry 1. Industry Investment Rating No investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core View The steel market shows a trend of mills reducing production and destocking, with iron - water production decreasing and raw material inventory accumulating, which drags down steel prices. The market's concern about export bottlenecks also affects steel prices. The prices of rebar and hot - rolled coils are expected to move within a range. Consider closing the short position on the hot - rolled coil to rebar spread in the January contract and re - participating in shorting the rebar to iron ore ratio in the January contract [1]. 3. Summary by Directory Steel Prices and Spreads - Rebar and hot - rolled coil prices in different regions and contracts all declined. For example, rebar spot prices in East China, North China, and South China decreased by 10, 20, and 40 yuan/ton respectively. Rebar 05, 10, and 01 contracts dropped by 48, 46, and 30 yuan/ton respectively [1]. - Hot - rolled coil spot prices in East China, North China, and South China decreased by 30, 0, and 40 yuan/ton respectively. Hot - rolled coil 05, 10, and 01 contracts dropped by 44, 44, and 37 yuan/ton respectively [1]. Cost and Profit - Steel billet price decreased by 20 yuan/ton, while slab price remained unchanged. - The cost of Jiangsu electric - arc furnace rebar decreased by 3 yuan/ton, and the cost of Jiangsu converter rebar increased by 9 yuan/ton. - Profits of rebar and hot - rolled coil in different regions showed different changes. For example, East China rebar profit increased by 31 yuan/ton, and North China hot - rolled coil profit increased by 11 yuan/ton [1]. Production - Daily average iron - water production decreased by 30,000 tons to 2.293 million tons, a decline of 1.3%. - The output of five major steel products decreased by 227,000 tons to 8.062 million tons, a decline of 2.7%. - Rebar output decreased by 105,000 tons to 1.788 million tons, a decline of 5.6%. - Hot - rolled coil output decreased by 56,000 tons to 3.087 million tons, a decline of 1.8% [1]. Inventory - The inventory of five major steel products decreased by 335,000 tons to 13.321 million tons, a decline of 2.5%. - Rebar inventory decreased by 243,000 tons to 4.795 million tons, a decline of 4.8%. - Hot - rolled coil inventory decreased by 33,000 tons to 3.971 million tons, a decline of 0.8% [1]. Transaction and Demand - Building materials trading volume decreased by 22,000 tons to 92,000 tons, a decline of 19.3%. - The apparent demand of five major steel products decreased by 245,000 tons to 8.397 million tons, a decline of 2.8%. - The apparent demand of rebar decreased by 139,000 tons to 2.031 million tons, a decline of 6.4%. - The apparent demand of hot - rolled coil decreased by 29,000 tons to 3.12 million tons, a decline of 0.9% [1]. Report 2: Iron Ore Industry 1. Industry Investment Rating No investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core View The iron ore futures market is expected to be volatile and bearish. With mills continuing to reduce production, iron - water production declining, and the market weakening, the iron ore valuation is likely to decline. It is recommended to short the Iron Ore 2605 contract on rallies, with an operating range of 730 - 780 yuan/ton [3]. 3. Summary by Directory Iron Ore - related Prices and Spreads - The warehouse - receipt costs of various iron ore powders decreased. For example, the warehouse - receipt cost of PB powder decreased by 7.7 yuan/ton, a decline of 0.9%. - The basis of 01 contract for different iron ore powders showed different changes. The 1 - 5 spread increased by 4.5 yuan/ton, a rise of 24.3% [3]. Spot Prices and Price Indexes - Spot prices of iron ore at Rizhao Port decreased. For example, the price of PB powder at Rizhao Port decreased by 7 yuan/ton, a decline of 0.9%. - The Singapore Exchange 62% Fe swap and the Platts 62% Fe index increased slightly [3]. Supply - The 45 - port weekly arrival volume decreased by 2.188 million tons to 24.805 million tons, a decline of 8.1%. - The global weekly shipping volume increased by 454,000 tons to 33.686 million tons, a rise of 1.4%. - The national monthly import volume decreased by 5.006 million tons to 111.309 million tons, a decline of 4.3% [3]. Demand - The daily average iron - water production of 247 mills decreased by 31,000 tons to 2.292 million tons, a decline of 1.3%. - The 45 - port daily average port clearance volume decreased by 85,000 tons to 3.185 million tons, a decline of 2.6%. - The national monthly pig iron output decreased by 49,700 tons to 65.549 million tons, a decline of 0.8%. - The national monthly crude steel output decreased by 1.493 million tons to 71.997 million tons, a decline of 2.0% [3]. Inventory - The 45 - port inventory increased by 482,000 tons to 153.4898 million tons, a rise of 0.3%. - The imported iron ore inventory of 247 mills increased by 42,300 tons to 89.847 million tons, a rise of 0.5%. - The inventory available days of 64 mills increased by 1 day to 20 days, a rise of 5.3% [3]. Report 3: Coke and Coking Coal Industry 1. Industry Investment Rating No investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core View - Coke: The coke market is weakening, with supply and demand turning unfavorable. The coke futures are expected to be volatile and bearish, with a recommended operating range of 1450 - 1600 yuan/ton. It is recommended to go long on coke and short on coking coal for arbitrage [4]. - Coking Coal: The coking coal market is also facing downward pressure. The coking coal futures are expected to be volatile and bearish, with a recommended operating range of 950 - 1100 yuan/ton. It is also recommended to go long on coke and short on coking coal for arbitrage [4]. 3. Summary by Directory Coke - related Prices and Spreads - Coke prices in different regions and contracts decreased. For example, the 01 contract of coke decreased by 36 yuan/ton, a decline of 2.3%, and the 05 contract decreased by 44 yuan/ton, a decline of 2.6%. - The coking profit calculated by the Steel Union decreased by 11 yuan/ton on a weekly basis [4]. Coking Coal - related Prices and Spreads - Coking coal prices in different regions and contracts decreased. For example, the 01 contract of coking coal decreased by 29 yuan/ton, a decline of 3.0%, and the 05 contract decreased by 35 yuan/ton, a decline of 3.3%. - The profit of sample coal mines decreased by 16 yuan/ton on a weekly basis [4]. Supply - Coke production: The daily average output of all - sample coking plants decreased by 0.6 tons to 64 tons, a decline of 0.9%. The daily average output of 247 mills remained unchanged at 46.6 tons. - Coking coal production: The weekly output of Fenwei sample coal mines decreased. The raw coal output decreased by 2.7 tons to 853.4 tons, a decline of 0.3%, and the clean coal output decreased by 0.6 tons to 438.2 tons, a decline of 0.1% [4]. Demand - Coke demand: The iron - water production of 247 mills decreased by 3.1 tons to 229.2 tons, a decline of 1.3%. - Coking coal demand: The coke production of all - sample coking plants and 247 mills showed a slight decline [4]. Inventory - Coke inventory: The total coke inventory increased by 20.8 tons to 903.8 tons, a rise of 2.4%. The inventories of all - sample coking plants, 247 mills, and ports showed different changes. - Coking coal inventory: The inventories of Fenwei coal mines, all - sample coking plants, and ports increased, while the inventory of 247 mills decreased [4]. Supply - demand Gap - The coke supply - demand gap increased from - 2.5 tons to - 1.9 tons, a change of 31.3% [4].

1. Report Investment Ratings - No investment ratings provided in the report 2. Core Views - **Steel**: Affected by the news that Vanke might be bailed out, the real estate industry's expectations are being restored, and the prices of the black series have risen from their lows. After the Fed cut interest rates and expanded its balance - sheet last night, the overall sentiment is dovish, which is expected to boost the market. The previous decline in steel prices was mainly due to the fall of raw material coking coal prices. The steel fundamentals show a trend of production cut and inventory reduction. The downward driving force is not strong, but the overall demand is average with a year - on - year decline, and the falling iron - water production cycle suppresses raw material prices. Steel will maintain a volatile trend, with the focus on the 3000 - 3200 yuan and 3200 - 3350 yuan ranges for May contracts of rebar and hot - rolled coil respectively. Considering the differentiation in inventory reduction between hot - rolled coil and rebar, the convergence arbitrage of the January hot - rolled coil - rebar spread can be continued, and the long - rebar and short - ore arbitrage should be exited [2] - **Iron Ore**: Stimulated by real estate利好 news, iron ore futures rebounded yesterday. On the supply side, the global iron ore shipment volume increased week - on - week last week, while the arrival volume at 45 ports decreased. On the demand side, steel mills continued to cut production, iron - water production declined, steel mill maintenance increased, steel prices fluctuated at a low level, and the profitability of steel mills improved. From the data of the five major steel products, steel production, inventory decreased, and apparent demand declined seasonally. In terms of inventory, iron ore port inventory increased, the port clearance volume decreased, and the equity inventory of steel mills increased. Looking ahead, as steel mills' iron - water production decreases and steel prices fluctuate at a low level, the market will gradually weaken, and iron ore valuation will decline. For strategies, hold a bearish view on iron ore futures with a volatile trend, and short the iron ore 2605 contract on rallies, with the operating range of 730 - 780 [6] - **Coke**: Coke futures rebounded yesterday. On the spot side, the second round of coke price cuts started on December 10 and is expected to be implemented on the 12th, with short - term price cut expectations still remaining, and port prices have fallen in advance. On the supply side, the price cut range of coking coal in the Shanxi market has expanded, the auction prices of various coal types have continued to fall back, the adjustment of coke prices lags behind that of coking coal, coking profits have been restored, and the start - up rate has increased. On the demand side, steel mills have increased maintenance due to losses, iron - water production has declined, steel prices have rebounded, steel mill profits have been restored, and there is an intention to suppress coke prices. In terms of inventory, coking plants have increased inventory, while ports and steel mills have reduced inventory, and the overall inventory has slightly increased at a medium level. Coke futures have fallen in advance, and the spot price decline refers to the downward space of coking coal and is still in the bottom - finding stage. For strategies, hold a bearish view on coke futures with a volatile trend, with the range of 1450 - 1600, and recommend long - coke and short - coking - coal arbitrage [8] - **Coking Coal**: Coking coal futures declined yesterday. On the spot side, the auction prices of Shanxi coking coal continued to fall, Mongolian coal quotes decreased, and the recent auction failure rate has remained at 30 - 50%. The power coal market has continued to decline, and the coal spot market has become more relaxed again. On the supply side, coal mine shipments have worsened, daily output has slightly decreased, coal mines have accumulated inventory again due to poor sales, and coal mine production may continue to decline near the end of the year. In terms of imports, port inventory has continued to increase, Mongolian coal quotes have followed the futures down, and the recent customs clearance volume has rebounded to a high level. On the demand side, steel mills have increased maintenance due to losses, iron - water production has declined, coking plants' start - up rate has slightly increased after profit recovery, and the market's inventory replenishment demand has weakened. In terms of inventory, coking plants and steel mills have reduced inventory, while coal mines, coal - washing plants, ports, and ports of entry have increased inventory, and the overall inventory has slightly increased at a medium level. In terms of policies, ensuring the long - term coal supply for power plants remains the main theme, and the over - capacity pattern continues. For strategies, coking coal spot prices continue to fall, the futures market has declined significantly, the main contract has shifted to coking coal 2605. Hold a bearish view on coking coal futures with a volatile trend, with the range of 1000 - 1150, and recommend long - coke and short - coking - coal arbitrage [8] 3. Summary by Category Steel - **Prices and Spreads**: Rebar and hot - rolled coil spot and futures prices generally rose. For example, rebar spot in East China increased from 3260 yuan/ton to 3280 yuan/ton, and the rebar 05 contract rose from 3079 yuan/ton to 3117 yuan/ton. The cost of steel billets increased by 20 yuan/ton to 2960 yuan/ton, and the profit of hot - rolled coil in East China decreased by 44 yuan to - 71 yuan [2] - **Production**: The daily average iron - water production decreased by 2.4 to 232.3 tons, a decline of 1.0%. The production of the five major steel products decreased by 26.8 tons to 829.0 tons, a decline of 3.1%. Rebar production decreased by 16.8 tons to 189.3 tons, a decline of 8.1%, and hot - rolled coil production decreased by 4.7 tons to 314.3 tons, a decline of 1.5% [2] - **Inventory**: The inventory of the five major steel products decreased by 35.2 tons to 1365.6 tons, a decline of 2.5%. Rebar inventory decreased by 27.7 tons to 503.8 tons, a decline of 5.2%, and hot - rolled coil inventory decreased by 0.5 tons to 400.4 tons, a decline of 0.1% [2] - **Trading and Demand**: Building material trading volume increased by 2.2 to 11.4 tons, an increase of 23.5%. The apparent demand of the five major steel products decreased by 23.8 tons to 864.2 tons, a decline of 2.7%. The apparent demand of rebar decreased by 11.0 tons to 217.0 tons, a decline of 4.8%, and the apparent demand of hot - rolled coil decreased by 5.4 tons to 314.9 tons, a decline of 1.7% [2] Iron Ore - **Prices and Spreads**: The warehouse - receipt costs of various iron ore powders all increased slightly. For example, the warehouse - receipt cost of PB powder increased from 830.4 yuan/ton to 835.9 yuan/ton. The 01 - contract basis of various iron ore powders decreased. The 5 - 9 spread remained unchanged at 24.0, the 9 - 1 spread increased by 4.0 to - 42.5, and the 1 - 5 spread decreased by 4.0 to 18.5 [6] - **Supply**: The 45 - port arrival volume (weekly) decreased by 218.8 tons to 2480.5 tons, a decline of 8.1%. The global shipment volume (weekly) increased by 45.4 tons to 3368.6 tons, an increase of 1.4%. The national monthly import volume decreased by 500.6 tons to 11130.9 tons, a decline of 4.3% [6] - **Demand**: The daily average iron - water production of 247 steel mills (weekly) decreased by 2.4 tons to 232.3 tons, a decline of 1.0%. The 45 - port daily average port clearance volume (weekly) decreased by 8.5 tons to 318.5 tons, a decline of 2.6%. The national monthly pig - iron production decreased by 49.7 tons to 6554.9 tons, a decline of 0.8%, and the national monthly crude - steel production decreased by 149.3 tons to 7199.7 tons, a decline of 2.0% [6] - **Inventory**: The 45 - port inventory (weekly) increased by 48.2 tons to 15348.98 tons, an increase of 0.3%. The imported - ore inventory of 247 steel mills (weekly) increased by 42.3 tons to 8984.7 tons, an increase of 0.5%. The inventory - available days of 64 steel mills (weekly) decreased by 1.0 to 19.0 days, a decline of 5.0% [6] Coke - **Prices and Spreads**: The prices of Shanxi and Rizhao Port quasi - first - grade wet - quenched coke (warehouse - receipt) remained unchanged. The coke 01 contract increased by 13 to 1527, and the 05 contract increased by 24 to 1701. The coking profit (weekly) decreased by 11 to - 54 [8] - **Supply**: The daily average production of all - sample coking plants increased by 0.8 tons to 64.5 tons, an increase of 1.2%, and the daily average production of 247 steel mills increased by 0.3 tons to 46.6 tons, an increase of 0.6% [8] - **Demand**: The iron - water production of 247 steel mills decreased by 2.4 tons to 232.3 tons, a decline of 1.0% [8] - **Inventory**: The total coke inventory decreased by 1.7 tons to 883.0 tons, a decline of 0.2%. The coke inventory of all - sample coking plants increased by 4.7 tons to 76.4 tons, an increase of 6.5%, and the coke inventory of 247 steel mills decreased by 0.3 tons to 625.3 tons, a decline of 0.0%. The port inventory decreased by 6.1 tons to 181.3 tons, a decline of 3.3% [8] - **Supply - Demand Gap**: The coke supply - demand gap increased by 2.2 tons to - 1.3 tons, an increase of 166.8% [8] Coking Coal - **Prices and Spreads**: The prices of Shanxi medium - sulfur main - coking coal (warehouse - receipt) and Mongolian 5 raw coal (warehouse - receipt) decreased. The coking coal 01 contract decreased by 21 to 983, and the 05 contract decreased by 13 to 1070. The 01 - contract basis increased by 16 to 197, and the 05 - contract basis increased by 8 to 90. The sample coal - mine profit (weekly) decreased by 16, a decline of 2.9% [8] - **Supply**: The raw - coal production decreased by 2.7 tons to 853.4 tons, a decline of 0.3%, and the clean - coal production decreased by 0.6 tons to 438.2 tons, a decline of 0.1% [8] - **Demand**: The daily average production of all - sample coking plants increased by 0.8 tons to 64.5 tons, an increase of 1.2%, and the daily average production of 247 steel mills increased by 0.3 tons to 46.6 tons, an increase of 0.6% [8] - **Inventory**: The Fenwei coal - mine clean - coal inventory increased by 20.1 tons to 127.6 tons, an increase of 18.7%. The all - sample coking - plant coking - coal inventory decreased by 1.1 tons to 1009.2 tons, a decline of 0.1%. The 247 - steel - mill coking - coal inventory decreased by 3.0 tons to 798.3 tons, a decline of 0.4%. The port inventory increased by 2.0 tons to 296.5 tons, an increase of 0.7% [8]

| 材产业期现日报 | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 投资咨询 务资格:证监许可 [2011] 1292号 2025年12月8日 | | | 問敏波 | Z0010559 | | | 钢材价格及价差 | | | | | | | 品种 | 现值 | 副值 | 涨跌 | 基差 | 单位 | | 螺纹钢现货(华东) | 3290 | 3300 | -10 | 153 | | | 螺纹钢现货(华北) | 3200 | 3210 | -10 | 63 | | | 螺纹钢现货(华南) | 3330 | 3340 | -10 | 193 | | | 螺纹钢05合约 | 3157 | 3175 | -18 | 133 | | | 螺纹钢10合约 | 3192 | 3209 | -17 | ರಿ8 | | | 螺纹钢01合约 | 3137 | 3148 | -H | 153 | | | 热卷现货(华东) | 3300 | 3310 | -10 | -12 | 元/吨 | | 热卷现货(华北) | 3240 | 3240 | O | -72 | | | 热卷现 ...

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Bullish: Polysilicon, Lithium Carbonate [1] - Bearish: Fuel Oil [1] - Volatile: Equity Index, Treasury Bonds, Copper, Aluminum Oxide, Zinc, Nickel, Stainless Steel, Tin, Precious Metals, Industrial Silicon, Carbonate, Rebar, Hot Rolled Coil, Iron Ore, Manganese Ore, Silicomanganese, Ferrosilicon, Coke, Coking Coal, Black Metal, Soda Ash, Glass, Jiao Coal, Palm Oil, Cotton, Sugar, Soybean, Pulp, Log, Live Pig, Crude Oil, BR Rubber, PTA, Ethylene Glycol, Short Fiber, Styrene, Urea, Propylene, PVC, Caustic Soda, LPG [1] Core Viewpoints - The market divergence is expected to gradually be digested during the index's volatile adjustment, and the index is expected to rise further with the emergence of new mainlines. The market adjustment provides an opportunity to lay out for the index's further upward movement next year [1]. - Asset shortage and weak economy are beneficial to bond futures, but the central bank has recently warned about interest - rate risks, suppressing the upward space [1]. - For various commodities, their prices are affected by factors such as macro - economic conditions, supply - demand relationships, and cost supports, showing different trends of rise, fall, or volatility [1]. Summary by Category Macro - Financial - Equity Index: Market divergence will be digested during adjustment, with potential for further upward movement. Central Huijin's support limits downside risk. Market adjustment provides a layout opportunity, and traders can build long positions during the adjustment and use the stock - index futures' discount structure to increase the probability of long - term investment success [1]. - Treasury Bonds: Asset shortage and weak economy are favorable, but short - term interest - rate risks are warned by the central bank, suppressing the upward space [1]. Non - Ferrous Metals - Copper: There is a risk of price decline after the digestion of short - term positive sentiment [1]. - Aluminum Oxide: Domestic production and inventory are both increasing, the fundamental situation is weak, and prices are under downward pressure. Attention should be paid to the price changes at the mine end [1]. - Zinc: After the digestion of short - term macro - positive factors and with oversupply, there is a risk of price decline. Pay attention to short - selling opportunities at high prices [1]. - Nickel: Fed's interest - rate cut expectation has risen, and the macro sentiment has improved. Indonesia's restrictions on nickel - related smelting projects have limited impact. Short - term nickel prices may fluctuate with the macro situation. It is recommended to go long at low levels in the short - term range, and the medium - to - long - term supply of nickel will remain in surplus [1]. - Stainless Steel: The macro sentiment has improved, and raw materials have stopped falling. The stainless - steel futures will fluctuate and rebound in the short term. Pay attention to the actual production situation of steel mills [1]. - Tin: After the digestion of macro - positive sentiment, due to the tense situation in Congo and the short - term supply not being restored, tin prices have strengthened. However, beware of the risk of short - term over - rise and fall. The medium - to - long - term outlook is bullish [1]. - Precious Metals: Gold may fluctuate within a range. Silver's short - term price will continue to fluctuate sharply. Platinum is expected to fluctuate in the short term. For palladium, the short - term strategy is to short at high levels, and the medium - term [long platinum, short palladium] arbitrage strategy can continue to be held [1]. - Industrial Silicon: Northwest production is increasing while Southwest production is decreasing. The production schedules of polysilicon and organic silicon in December are decreasing [1]. - Polysilicon: There is an expectation of capacity reduction in the medium - to - long - term. Terminal installations are increasing marginally in the fourth quarter. Large manufacturers are reluctant to sell and are strong in price support [1]. - Lithium Carbonate: The traditional peak season for new energy vehicles is approaching, and the energy - storage demand is strong. The supply side is resuming production and increasing output [1]. Black Metals - Rebar and Hot Rolled Coil: The macro - driving force is increasing in December, providing some rebound momentum. After the futures price rises, it is beneficial for basis positive - arbitrage positions to enter. Do not chase high in single - side trading [1]. - Iron Ore: Direct demand is okay, with cost support, but supply is high, inventory is accumulating, and the price rebound space is limited [1]. - Manganese Ore and Silicomanganese: The short - term production profit is poor, with cost support, but supply is high, and the price rebound is limited [1]. - Ferrosilicon: Supply and demand provide support, and the valuation is low, but short - term sentiment dominates, and price fluctuations are strong [1]. - Soda Ash: Follows glass, but with average supply and demand, there is great resistance to price increase [1]. - Coke and Coking Coal: From a valuation perspective, the decline is close to the end. From a driving perspective, downstream replenishment may start around mid - December. For now, use a short - term strategy for single - side trading and wait and see for the medium - to - long - term [1]. Agricultural Products - Palm Oil: The impact of floods on production is limited, and the near - month inventory pressure is large. The domestic arrival in December is expected to be large, and the basis is expected to be weak [1]. - Cotton: There is support but no driving force in the short term. Future attention should be paid to policies, planting intentions, weather, and demand in the peak season [1]. - Sugar: There is a consensus on short - selling due to global surplus and increased domestic supply. If the price continues to fall, there is strong cost support, but there is a lack of continuous driving force in the short - term fundamentals [1]. - Soybean: China's purchases support the US market. Brazilian weather lacks obvious speculation themes, and the short - term price is expected to fluctuate [1]. - Pulp: There are cancellations of old warehouse receipts and registrations of new ones. The recovery of demand remains to be verified, and the short - term price will fluctuate [1]. - Log: The fundamental situation has weakened but has been priced in the market. The risk - reward ratio of short - selling after a sharp decline is low. It is recommended to wait and see [1]. - Live Pig: The spot price is stabilizing, with demand support, and the production capacity still needs to be further released [1]. Energy and Chemicals - Crude Oil: OPEC + has suspended production increase until the end of 2026, the Russia - Ukraine peace agreement is postponed, and the US has increased sanctions on Russia [1]. - Fuel Oil: Bearish due to factors such as OPEC + policies, the Russia - Ukraine situation, and US sanctions [1]. - Asphalt: Short - term supply - demand contradiction is not prominent, following crude oil. The demand during the 14th Five - Year Plan may be falsified, and supply is sufficient. The profit is high [1]. - BR Rubber: The price support of butadiene is limited. Refinery overhauls may bring a positive expectation. High inventory restricts price increase, but the synthetic valuation is low [1]. - PTA: OPEC's production increase has slowed down, and there are positive factors such as domestic PTA export improvement [1]. - Ethylene Glycol: Inventory is increasing, prices are falling, and cost support is weakening [1]. - Short Fiber: The price follows cost closely, and the basis has strengthened [1]. - Styrene: The cost support is weakening due to factors such as weak Asian benzene prices and reduced US gasoline demand [1]. - Urea: There is limited upward space due to insufficient domestic demand, but there is support from cost and anti - dumping [1]. - Propylene: Supply pressure is large, downstream improvement is less than expected, but cost support is strong [1]. - PVC: Supply pressure is increasing, and demand is weakening [1]. - Caustic Soda: There are factors such as delivery from Guangxi alumina plants, high - load operation, and potential squeezing risks [1]. - LPG: The international oil and gas market returns to a loose fundamental situation. The CP/FEI has rebounded. The price will fluctuate within a range after a decline [1].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No specific industry investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Views of the Report - The A - share market is in a state of continuous volume contraction and low volatility, with pro - cyclical sectors showing a structural upward trend. For different futures products, there are various trends and influencing factors, including macro - economic data, policy expectations, and supply - demand fundamentals [2][3][4]. - The bond market has a fragile trading sentiment, with ultra - long bonds leading the decline. The market is affected by expectations of monetary and fiscal policies, as well as institutional behaviors [5][6][7]. - The precious metals market lacks clear direction due to a dull macro - news background. Gold is oscillating at a high level, while silver is in a corrective phase [8][9][11]. - The shipping index of container transportation to Europe is expected to show a short - term oscillating pattern, with the spot market stabilizing and the peak - season expectation slightly recovering [12]. - In the non - ferrous metals sector, different metals have different market situations. For example, copper prices are strongly supported, while alumina is expected to have limited short - term decline space [17][19]. - In the black metals sector, steel mills are reducing production, and the iron ore market is expected to oscillate. Coke and coking coal markets are facing supply - demand imbalances and price fluctuations [49][52][60]. - In the agricultural products sector, different products have different outlooks. For example, the soybean meal market is waiting for the USDA report, and the pig market is in a tug - of - war between upstream and downstream [64][66]. - In the energy and chemical sector, different products such as PX, PTA, and short - fibers have different supply - demand relationships and price trends [82][84][86]. 3. Summaries by Relevant Catalogs Financial Derivatives - Financial Futures Stock Index Futures - Market situation: A - share major indices were narrowly oscillating. The CSI 300, SSE 50, etc. rose, while the Shanghai Composite Index slightly declined. The four major stock index futures contracts also rose [2][3]. - News: Domestically, the market regulatory authority issued a standard for take - out platform services. Overseas, the Bank of Japan officials made statements about monetary policy [3][4]. - Capital flow: A - share trading volume decreased by over 100 billion yuan, and the central bank had a net cash withdrawal of 175.6 billion yuan [4]. - Operation suggestion: Be cautious and wait and see in the short term. Consider a bull spread of put options on the CSI 1000 when there are pull - backs [4]. Treasury Futures - Market performance: Treasury futures closed down across the board, with the 30 - year contract leading the decline. Bond yields generally rose [5][6]. - Capital flow: The central bank had a net cash withdrawal of 175.6 billion yuan, and the inter - bank market liquidity remained loose [6]. - Operation suggestion: Temporarily wait and see. Pay attention to the Politburo meeting and the new regulations on bond fund redemption fees. Consider participating in varieties within 10 - year if the market sentiment improves. The curve strategy may tend to steepen [7]. Financial Derivatives - Precious Metals - Market review: As of the week of November 29, US employment data showed a pattern of low lay - offs and low recruitment. Gold oscillated at a high level, while silver corrected. Platinum and palladium also declined [8][9]. - Outlook: Gold may face resistance at high levels, and short - term trading can consider selling out - of - the - money put options. Silver may see a strong short - term price trend, but attention should be paid to the improvement of scrap aluminum supply and inventory reduction. Platinum is expected to oscillate upward in the medium - to - long term [11]. Financial Derivatives - Container Shipping Index to Europe - Index: As of December 1, the SCFIS European line index and the SCFI composite index declined [12]. - Fundamentals: The global container shipping capacity increased year - on - year, and the demand in the eurozone and the US showed different situations [12]. - Logic: The futures market oscillated, and the spot market stabilized. It is expected to show a short - term oscillating pattern [12]. Commodity Futures - Non - Ferrous Metals Copper - Spot: Copper prices rose, and the discount of electrolytic copper increased. The overall trading was poor [13]. - Macro: The US manufacturing PMI was in a contraction range, and the ADP employment data was lower than expected, increasing the expectation of Fed rate cuts [13]. - Supply: The spot TC of copper concentrate was at a low level, and the 2026 long - term premium proposed by Codelco was significantly higher. The production of electrolytic copper in November increased [14][15]. - Demand: The weekly operating rates of copper rod processing decreased, but the downstream demand showed strong resilience [16]. - Inventory: LME and COMEX copper inventories increased, while domestic social inventories decreased [16]. - Logic: With the significant increase in LME cancelled warrants, copper prices are strongly supported. In the long - term, the supply - demand contradiction will support the upward movement of the bottom price [17]. - Operation suggestion: Adopt a strategy of buying on dips, with the main support level at 88,500 - 89,500 [17]. Alumina - Spot: Alumina prices were stable or slightly declined, and the supply pattern was gradually becoming looser [18]. - Supply: In November, the production of metallurgical - grade alumina decreased slightly month - on - month, mainly due to the phased production reduction in the north [18]. - Inventory: Alumina inventories increased [19]. - Logic: The market is in a state of high supply, high inventory, and cost support. It is expected to maintain a bottom - oscillating pattern [19]. - Operation suggestion: The main contract is expected to operate in the range of 2,575 - 2,775 yuan/ton, with limited short - term decline space [19]. Other Non - Ferrous Metals Similar analysis methods are used for other non - ferrous metals such as aluminum, zinc, tin, etc., considering factors such as spot prices, supply - demand relationships, and inventory changes [20][28][33]. Commodity Futures - Black Metals Steel - Spot: Steel prices were stable, and the basis of the main contracts of rebar and hot - rolled coil changed differently [47]. - Cost and profit: The cost of coking coal and coke decreased, and steel mill profits slightly recovered [48]. - Supply: Iron ore production increased slightly year - on - year, and steel production decreased slightly [48]. - Demand: Domestic demand was weak, and exports remained at a high level. The apparent demand in December was expected to decline seasonally [49]. - Inventory: Steel inventories decreased [49]. - View: Steel prices are expected to oscillate in a range. Consider a long - rebar and short - iron - ore arbitrage [49]. Iron Ore - Spot: Iron ore prices declined [50]. - Futures: The main iron ore futures contract declined slightly [50]. - Basis: The basis of different iron ore varieties changed [50]. - Demand: Steel mill production reduction continued, and iron ore demand decreased [51]. - Supply: The global iron ore shipment increased, and the port arrival volume decreased [51]. - Inventory: Port inventories increased, and steel mill inventories decreased [52]. - View: Iron ore futures are expected to oscillate in the range of 750 - 820 [52]. Coking Coal and Coke Similar analysis methods are used for coking coal and coke, considering factors such as spot prices, supply - demand relationships, and inventory changes [54][57]. Commodity Futures - Agricultural Products Soybean Meal - Spot market: Domestic soybean meal prices were stable or slightly declined, and trading volume decreased [61]. - Fundamental news: Analysts expected changes in US soybean export sales, and the soybean sowing progress in Brazil was high [61][62]. - Market outlook: The soybean meal market is expected to oscillate, and attention should be paid to domestic soybean procurement [64]. Other Agricultural Products Similar analysis methods are used for other agricultural products such as pigs, corn, and sugar, considering factors such as spot prices, supply - demand relationships, and policy impacts [65][67][70]. Commodity Futures - Energy and Chemicals PX - Spot: PX prices continued to correct, and the market trading atmosphere was average [82]. - Profit: PX profit margins changed [82]. - Supply - demand: PX supply may contract in the first quarter, and demand was relatively strong [82]. - Market outlook: PX is expected to oscillate at a high level in the short term [82]. Other Energy and Chemical Products Similar analysis methods are used for other energy and chemical products such as PTA, short - fibers, and ethylene glycol, considering factors such as spot prices, supply - demand relationships, and inventory changes [83][86][89].

Group 1: Steel Industry Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core View - The steel market is expected to maintain a range - bound oscillation. The rebar is expected to fluctuate between 3000 - 3200 yuan/ton, and hot - rolled coils between 3250 - 3400 yuan/ton. The spread between hot - rolled coils and rebar is expected to continue narrowing in January. The long - position rebar and short - position iron ore arbitrage in the January contract can be held [1]. Summary by Directory - **Steel Prices and Spreads**: Rebar and hot - rolled coil prices in different regions and contracts showed various changes. For example, the spot price of rebar in East China remained at 3300 yuan/ton, while the 01 contract price increased by 11 yuan/ton to 3148 yuan/ton. The spot price of hot - rolled coils in East China increased by 10 yuan/ton to 3310 yuan/ton [1]. - **Cost and Profit**: The cost of steel billets remained unchanged at 2990 yuan/ton, while the cost of Jiangsu electric - arc furnace rebar increased by 2 yuan/ton to 3247 yuan/ton. The profit of East China hot - rolled coils decreased by 5 yuan/ton to - 29 yuan/ton [1]. - **Production**: The daily average pig iron output decreased by 2.0 tons to 232.0 tons, a decline of 0.9%. The output of five major steel products decreased by 26.8 tons to 829.0 tons, a decline of 3.1% [1]. - **Inventory**: The inventory of five major steel products decreased by 35.2 tons to 1365.6 tons, a decline of 2.5%. The rebar inventory decreased by 27.7 tons to 503.8 tons, a decline of 5.2% [1]. - **Transaction and Demand**: The building materials trading volume increased by 0.4 to 9.4, a rise of 4.5%. The apparent demand for five major steel products decreased by 23.8 tons to 864.2 tons, a decline of 2.7% [1]. Group 2: Iron Ore Industry Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core View - The iron ore futures are expected to oscillate between 750 - 820 yuan/ton. Although the supply has increased and the demand has decreased, with the improvement of market expectations and the support of downstream restocking and basis repair, the price will not drop significantly [3]. Summary by Directory - **Iron Ore - related Prices and Spreads**: The warehouse receipt cost of various iron ore types decreased slightly. For example, the warehouse receipt cost of Carajás Fine decreased by 6.6 yuan/ton to 796.7 yuan/ton. The 9 - 1 spread increased by 5.0 yuan/ton to - 41.5 yuan/ton, a rise of 10.8% [3]. - **Spot Prices and Price Indexes**: The spot prices of various iron ore types at Rizhao Port decreased slightly. For example, the price of Carajás Fine at Rizhao Port decreased by 6.0 yuan/ton to 877.0 yuan/ton [3]. - **Supply**: The 45 - port arrival volume decreased by 117.8 tons to 2699.3 tons, a decline of 4.2%, while the global shipment volume increased by 44.8 tons to 3323.2 tons, a rise of 1.4% [3]. - **Demand**: The daily average pig iron output of 247 steel mills decreased by 2.4 tons to 232.3 tons, a decline of 1.0%. The 45 - port daily average desulfurization volume increased by 3.6 tons to 330.6 tons, a rise of 1.1% [3]. - **Inventory Changes**: The 45 - port inventory increased by 27.3 tons to 15237.39 tons, a rise of 0.2%. The imported iron ore inventory of 247 steel mills decreased by 58.8 tons to 8942.5 tons, a decline of 0.7% [3]. Group 3: Coke Industry Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core View - The coke futures are expected to oscillate between 1550 - 1700 yuan/ton. The supply - demand relationship has weakened, but the futures have basically over - discounted the spot price cut expectations, and the downward space is limited. The 1 - 5 reverse arbitrage can be recommended [5]. Summary by Directory - **Coke - related Prices and Spreads**: The prices of Shanxi quasi - first - grade wet - quenched coke (warehouse receipt) and Rizhao Port quasi - first - grade wet - quenched coke (warehouse receipt) remained unchanged. The 01 contract price of coke increased by 27 yuan/ton to 1652 yuan/ton [5]. - **Supply**: The daily average output of all - sample coking plants increased by 0.8 tons to 64.5 tons, a rise of 1.2%. The daily average output of 247 steel mills increased by 0.3 tons to 46.6 tons, a rise of 0.6% [5]. - **Demand**: The pig iron output of 247 steel mills decreased by 2.4 tons to 232.3 tons, a decline of 1.0% [5]. - **Inventory Changes**: The total coke inventory decreased slightly by 1.7 tons to 883.0 tons. The inventory of all - sample coking plants increased by 4.7 tons to 76.4 tons, a rise of 6.5% [5]. - **Supply - Demand Gap**: The coke supply - demand gap increased by 1.8 tons to - 2.5 tons, a rise of 74.2% [5]. Group 4: Coking Coal Industry Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core View - The coking coal futures are expected to oscillate between 1050 - 1150 yuan/ton. The market is in a weak state, with supply and demand both showing certain changes, and the 1 - 5 reverse arbitrage can be recommended [5]. Summary by Directory - **Coking Coal - related Prices and Spreads**: The prices of Shanxi medium - sulfur primary coking coal (warehouse receipt) and Mongolian 5 raw coal (warehouse receipt) remained unchanged. The 01 contract price of coking coal increased by 21 yuan/ton to 1092 yuan/ton [5]. - **Supply**: The raw coal output of Fenwei sample coal mines decreased by 2.7 tons to 853.4 tons, a decline of 0.3%. The clean coal output decreased by 0.6 tons to 438.2 tons, a decline of 0.1% [5]. - **Demand**: The demand for coking coal is affected by the decline in pig iron output and the weakening of market restocking demand [5]. - **Inventory Changes**: The clean coal inventory of Fenwei coal mines increased by 9.6 tons to 107.6 tons, a rise of 9.8%. The coking coal inventory of all - sample coking plants decreased by 1.1 tons to 1009.2 tons, a decline of 0.1% [5].

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2) Core Viewpoints - The short - term trading opportunities for A - share index futures are limited due to low trading volume and volatility [2]. - The current interest rate is approaching the high level before the end of September, and the allocation value of bonds within 10 years is relatively improved. The 30 - year bonds may be oversold under emotional drive. It is recommended to wait and see for the unilateral strategy and focus on the Politburo meeting and the new regulations on bond fund redemption fees [2]. - Gold is in a consolidation phase near $4200, and it is advisable to be cautious about chasing long positions unilaterally. Silver is oscillating strongly and may reach $60. Investors are advised to lock in profits after accumulating floating profits [2]. - The container shipping index is expected to fluctuate in the short - term [2]. - For steel, it is recommended to focus on the long - rebar and short - iron ore arbitrage. Iron ore is in high - level consolidation, and coking coal and coke are also in a consolidation state [2]. - Copper prices are rising again, and aluminum prices are rising with increased positions. Different trading strategies are recommended for various non - ferrous metals [2][3]. - For new energy and chemical products, different products have different market trends and corresponding trading suggestions, such as PX having strong support in the medium - term, while PTA's rebound space is limited [3]. - In the energy and chemical industry, different products have different market situations, such as LLDPE's trading volume weakening significantly and PP's supply having an upward expectation [3]. - In the agricultural products market, different products have different trends, such as palm oil falling due to potential inventory growth and sugar oscillating weakly [3]. 3) Summary by Related Catalogs Financial Sector - **Stock Index Futures**: A - share index futures have low trading volume and volatility, and the short - term trading space is limited. The dividend sector is firm, and the index futures are trading weakly [2]. - **Treasury Bonds**: The current interest rate is approaching the high level before the end of September. The 30 - year bonds are relatively weak, and the short - term market driver may come from the policy expectation difference. It is recommended to wait and see for the unilateral strategy and focus on the Politburo meeting and the new regulations on bond fund redemption fees. The positive arbitrage strategy for the 2603 contract is recommended for the spot - futures strategy [2]. - **Precious Metals**: Gold is in a consolidation phase near $4200, and it is advisable to sell out - of - the - money put options to earn time value. Silver is oscillating strongly and may reach $60. Investors are advised to lock in profits after accumulating floating profits. Platinum and palladium should be traded with a short - term high - selling and low - buying strategy, and the long - platinum and short - palladium hedge should take profits at high levels [2]. Black Sector - **Steel**: Steel mills are reducing production. It is recommended to focus on the long - rebar and short - iron ore arbitrage and narrow the spread between hot - rolled coil and rebar [2]. - **Iron Ore**: The shipment is increasing, the arrival is decreasing, and the port inventory is increasing. It is in high - level consolidation, with the range from 750 to 820 [2]. - **Coking Coal**: The price reduction range of coal in the production area is expanding, and the price of Mongolian coal is stable. The futures price is falling again, with the range from 1050 to 1150, and the 1 - 5 reverse spread is recommended [2]. - **Coke**: The first round of price cuts in December has been implemented, and the port trading price is falling. It is in a consolidation state, with the range from 1550 to 1700, and the 1 - 5 reverse spread is recommended [2]. Non - Ferrous Sector - **Copper**: The LME cancelled warehouse receipts are increasing significantly, and copper prices are rising again. The short - term decline space is limited [2]. - **Aluminum**: Aluminum prices are rising with increased positions. Different trading strategies are recommended for aluminum, waste aluminum, and aluminum alloy, with corresponding price ranges [2][3]. - **Other Non - Ferrous Metals**: For zinc, supply reduction and interest - rate cut expectations provide support, but the spot trading is dull [4]. For other non - ferrous metals such as tin, nickel, and stainless steel, different market trends and trading suggestions are provided [3]. New Energy and Chemical Sector - **New Energy**: Different new energy products such as polysilicon and lithium carbonate have different market trends and corresponding trading suggestions, such as polysilicon futures rising while the spot price is stable [3]. - **Chemical Products**: Different chemical products have different market situations, such as PX having strong support in the medium - term, while PTA's rebound space is limited. Different trading strategies are recommended for each product [3]. Energy and Chemical Sector - Different energy and chemical products such as LLDPE, PP, and methanol have different market trends and corresponding trading suggestions, such as LLDPE's trading volume weakening significantly and PP's supply having an upward expectation [3]. Agricultural Products Sector - Different agricultural products such as palm oil, sugar, and cotton have different market trends and corresponding trading suggestions, such as palm oil falling due to potential inventory growth and sugar oscillating weakly [3].

钢材产业期现日报 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可 【2011】1292号 2025年12月3日 周敏波 Z0010559 | 钢材价格及价差 | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 品种 | 现值 | 前值 | 涨跌 | 基差 | 单位 | | 螺纹钢现货(华东) | 3300 | 3290 | 10 | 167 | | | 螺纹钢现货(华北) | 3220 | 3220 | O | 87 | | | 螺纹钢现货(华南) | 3350 | 3350 | O | 217 | | | 螺纹钢05合约 | 3169 | 3167 | 2 | 131 | | | 螺纹钢10合约 | 3208 | 3206 | 2 | 92 | | | 螺纹钢01合约 | 3133 | 3134 | -1 | 167 | | | 热卷现货(华东) | 3310 | 3310 | 0 | -15 | 元/吨 | | 热卷现货(华北) | 3240 | 3240 | 0 | -85 | | | 热卷现货(华南) | 3350 | 3350 | 0 | 12 | | | 热卷05合 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - No industry - wide investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Views of the Report - The report comprehensively analyzes various sectors including financial derivatives, precious metals, shipping, and multiple commodities, presenting market conditions, influencing factors, and future outlooks for each. It suggests different trading strategies based on the characteristics of each sector, such as short - term trading, long - term investment, and arbitrage opportunities [1] 3. Summary by Directory Financial Derivatives Financial Futures - **Stock Index Futures**: A - share market declined with reduced trading volume on Tuesday. Major indices and four major stock index futures contracts all fell. There are preparations for commercial real - estate REITs and new regulations on infrastructure REITs. A - share market trading volume decreased, and there was a net capital withdrawal. Short - term strategies include lightly selling December put options and gradually building long - spread positions on dips [2][3][4] - **Treasury Futures**: Treasury futures closed down across the board, with bond yields generally rising. The central bank's bond - buying scale was less than expected, and the bond market sentiment was weak. Although there was a net capital withdrawal in the open market, the inter - bank funds were still relatively loose. It is recommended to reduce left - side operations, temporarily wait and see, and pay attention to the implementation of the bond - fund redemption fee new regulations. Also, consider the positive - spread strategy for the 2603 contract [5][6] Precious Metals - **Gold, Silver, Platinum, Palladium**: Global central banks' expectations of monetary easing have decreased. Gold weakened, while silver continued to rise due to tight inventory. Platinum was dragged down by gold, and palladium rose due to industrial support. In the long - term, the bull market in precious metals is expected to continue, but there are short - term fluctuations. Different trading strategies are recommended for each metal [7][9][10] Shipping Index (European Line) - The SCFIS European line index and related routes' indices declined. The global container shipping capacity increased year - on - year, and the demand in the eurozone and the US showed different trends. The futures market is expected to be volatile in the short term [11][12] Commodity Futures Non - ferrous Metals - **Copper**: The US manufacturing PMI was lower than expected, and the spot premium stabilized. There are concerns about potential supply shortages, and copper prices are expected to remain high in the long - term. Short - term trading should focus on December interest - rate cut expectations. It is recommended to take profits on rallies and pay attention to support levels [12][13][16] - **Alumina**: The visible inventory continued to increase, and the market supply was still abundant. The price is expected to remain in a bottom - range oscillation, and the main contract's reference range has shifted downwards [17][18][19] - **Aluminum**: Driven by both macro and micro factors, the aluminum price is expected to remain strong in the short - term. It is necessary to pay attention to the Fed's monetary policy and domestic inventory reduction [19][20][21] - **Aluminum Alloy**: The supply of scrap aluminum is tight, and the demand maintains resilience. The price is expected to have strong short - term performance, and an arbitrage strategy can be considered [21][22][24] - **Zinc**: The supply reduction expectation provides support, but the spot trading is dull. The price is expected to oscillate, and attention should be paid to the TC inflection point and refined - zinc inventory changes [24][25][27] - **Tin**: There are disturbances on the supply side, and the tin price is oscillating at a high level. It is recommended to hold existing long positions and buy on dips, while paying attention to macro changes [27][29][31] - **Nickel**: The price is oscillating within a range, and the upward driving force is limited due to fundamental pressure. It is expected to oscillate in the short - term, and attention should be paid to macro expectations and Indonesian industrial policies [31][32][33] - **Stainless Steel**: The price oscillated slightly higher, but the fundamental pressure has not improved significantly. It is expected to oscillate weakly in the short - term, and attention should be paid to steel mills' production - cut implementation and nickel - iron prices [33][34][36] - **Lithium Carbonate**: The price is oscillating, and market differences may increase in the future. It is recommended to wait and see, as the market faces issues such as large - scale factory resumption and off - season demand [37][38][40] - **Polysilicon**: The futures price opened lower and fell. The supply is expected to exceed demand in December, and it is recommended to wait and see in the futures market and take profit on put options [40][41][42] - **Industrial Silicon**: The demand is poor, and the futures price oscillated downwards. It is expected to oscillate at a low level, and the price range is estimated [43][44][44] Ferrous Metals - **Steel**: Steel mills are reducing production. The steel price is expected to oscillate within a range, and a long - rebar and short - iron - ore arbitrage strategy can be considered [45][46][47] - **Iron Ore**: The shipping volume increased, the arrival volume decreased, and the port inventory increased. The iron - ore price is expected to oscillate strongly, and the operating range is given [48][50][51] - **Coking Coal**: The price of domestic coking coal decreased, and the price of Mongolian coal stabilized. The futures price rebounded after an oversold situation. It is recommended to view it as an oscillation and consider an inverse - spread strategy [52][53][55] - **Coke**: The first - round price cut in December has been implemented, and the port trading price has declined. The futures price is expected to oscillate, and an inverse - spread strategy is recommended [56][57][58] Agricultural Products - **Meal**: The market lacks guidance, and both domestic and international markets are mainly oscillating. It is recommended to continue to pay attention to China's soybean - purchasing trends [59][60][61] - **Pigs**: The spot price pressure remains, and the month - to - month inverse - spread position can be held. The pig price is expected to oscillate weakly [63][64][64] - **Corn**: The spot price shows a differentiated trend, and the futures price is oscillating. It is necessary to pay attention to the rhythm of corn supply [65][66][66] - **Sugar**: The raw - sugar price is in a bearish pattern, and the domestic sugar price is oscillating at the bottom. It is recommended to maintain a bottom - oscillation mindset [67][68][70] - **Cotton**: The US cotton price is oscillating at the bottom, and the domestic cotton price is oscillating within a range. It is necessary to wait for the global agricultural supply - demand forecast report [70][71][72] - **Eggs**: The egg price is stable with a slight increase, but the pressure is still high. The futures price is expected to oscillate at the bottom [73][74][74] - **Oils and Fats**: The Malaysian palm - oil price rose, and the domestic palm - oil price followed suit. The domestic soybean - oil price is oscillating narrowly. Different outlooks and strategies are provided for each [75][76][77] - **Jujubes**: The price in the production area has weakened, and the futures price is oscillating weakly. It is necessary to pay attention to the terminal consumption during the peak season [78][79][79] - **Apples**: The demand for stored apples is average, and the sales are slow. The market situation is relatively stable [80][80][80] Energy and Chemicals - **PX**: The medium - term supply - demand expectation has improved, and the short - term oil price is strong. The short - term support for PX is relatively strong, and attention should be paid to the pressure around 7000 [80][81][81] - **PTA**: The supply - demand pattern is strong in the near - term and weak in the long - term. The rebound space for PTA is limited. It is recommended to view it as a high - level oscillation and consider a low - level positive - spread strategy [82][83][83] - **Short - Fiber**: The supply - demand expectation is weak, and the processing fee is mainly compressed. The price follows the raw - material fluctuations, and the processing fee should be shorted on rallies [84][85][85] - **Bottle - Chip**: The supply - demand situation in December remains loose. The price follows the raw - material fluctuations, and the processing fee is expected to be compressed. It is recommended to short the processing fee [86][87][87] - **Ethylene Glycol**: Due to expected device maintenance, the inventory - building amplitude in December will narrow, but the supply - demand pattern remains loose. It is expected to oscillate within a range [88][88][88] - **Pure Benzene**: The port inventory is increasing, the supply - demand is weak, and the price is under pressure. It is recommended to short on rebounds [89][90][90] - **Styrene**: The supply - demand is in a tight - balance state, and the profit has improved, but the upward space is limited. It is recommended to view it as a wide - range oscillation [91][92][92] - **LLDPE**: The overall trading is weak, and the spot price has little change. It is expected to oscillate within a range [93][93][94] - **PP**: There are many unexpected device maintenance events, and the downward space is limited. It is recommended to wait and see [94][94][94] - **Methanol**: The spot price is strong, and the trading is acceptable. It is recommended to short the 05MTO spread [95][95][95] - **Caustic Soda**: The supply - demand still has pressure, and the price is expected to run weakly [95][96][96] - **PVC**: The short - term futures price has rebounded, but the supply - demand contradiction has not improved. The price is expected to remain weak at the bottom [98][98][98] - **Soda Ash and Glass**: Soda - ash production has rebounded after a decline, and the futures price is oscillating. The glass sales have declined, and the spot price has fallen. Different strategies are recommended for each [99][100][101] - **Natural Rubber**: The overseas raw - material price has stopped rising and started to fall, and the rubber price is mainly oscillating. It is recommended to wait and see [102][104][104] - **Synthetic Rubber**: Driven by butadiene export news, the BR price has risen strongly. It is expected to oscillate in the short - term, and attention should be paid to the pressure around 10800 [104][106][106]