2025.11. 25 本文字数：1866，阅读时长大约3分钟 作者 | 第一财经 樊志菁 美股延续上周五涨势走高。市场预期美联储12月下调联邦基金利率的概率上升，投资者暂时搁置了 对科技股估值过高的担忧。 截至收盘，道指涨202.86点，涨幅0.44%，报46448.27点，纳指涨2.69%，报22872.01点，标 普500指数涨1.55%，报6705.12点。 科 技 股 全 线 拉 升 ， 特 斯 拉 涨 6.8% ， 亚 马 逊 涨 2.5% ， Meta 涨 3.2% ， 苹 果 涨 1.6% ， 英 伟 达 涨 2.0%，甲骨文涨0.7%，微软涨0.4%。 计百度云收入增速2026年将加快至约61%。阿里巴巴涨5.1%，网易涨4.2%，京东涨0.4%，拼多 多涨0.2%。 经济数据方面，达拉斯联储11月制造业指数从10 月的-5.0跌至-10.4，表明工厂活动收缩幅度扩 大。 近期为期六周的政府停摆结束后，一系列延迟发布的经济数据暗示劳动力市场疲软，这进一步增强了 投资者的乐观预期，即美联储将在12 月货币政策会议结束时实施2025年第三次降息。 美联储理事沃勒和纽约联储主席威廉姆斯的鸽派言论为 ...

Group 1 - The Nasdaq 100 index futures rose nearly 1%, with major tech stocks mostly up in pre-market trading, including Google (GOOGL.US) up nearly 4%, indicating a potential record high at market open [1] - Other notable tech stocks such as Tesla (TSLA.US) and Broadcom (AVGO.US) increased over 2%, while Amazon (AMZN.US) and Meta (META.US) rose over 1%, and Nvidia (NVDA.US) and Microsoft (MSFT.US) also saw positive movement [1] Group 2 - Google AI has made significant advancements with the new image generation model NanoBanana Pro and the latest large model Gemini 3, which have made a strong impact in the global AI technology sector [1] - OpenAI CEO Altman indicated that Google's Gemini could pose serious challenges for OpenAI, highlighting the competitive landscape in AI development [1] Group 3 - Federal Reserve Governor and potential next chair candidate Waller expressed concerns about the labor market and advocated for interest rate cuts [1] - Goldman Sachs' latest report suggests that a rate cut by the Federal Reserve in December is highly likely, with no significant obstacles in the current schedule [1] - The report anticipates rate cuts in March and June of next year, based on core PCE inflation nearing the 2% policy target and rising unemployment rates among recent college graduates, indicating increasing economic downside risks [1]

Economic Overview - The A-share market has shown a decline in sectors such as energy metals, power equipment, and electronics, while defensive sectors like agriculture, home appliances, and banking have performed relatively better [1] - Fixed asset investment has decreased by 1.7% year-on-year from January to October, with a notable decline in real estate investment by 14.7% [2] - Industrial production has slowed down, with a year-on-year growth of 6.1% for the first ten months, and a drop to 4.9% in October compared to the previous month [2] Financial Data - In October, new RMB loans amounted to 220 billion, a decrease of 280 billion compared to the same month last year, while the social financing scale increased by 816.1 billion, down by 595.9 billion year-on-year [3] - M2 growth has slowed to 8.2%, down from 8.4%, and M1 growth has decreased to 6.2%, reflecting a cautious approach from enterprises towards investment [3] Market Sentiment - The Federal Reserve's hawkish signals have raised concerns about persistent inflation, leading to a decrease in expectations for interest rate cuts in December [4] - The domestic economic data has shown a downward trend, suggesting that the stock index may enter a phase of adjustment in the short term [4]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The rating for the US dollar is "oscillating" [5] 2. Core View of the Report - The release of the September non - farm payroll data in the US after the government ended the shutdown showed that the job market continued to cool but without significant deterioration. The data did not strengthen the Fed's rate - cut expectation, and the stock market was significantly suppressed. The Fed's stance on a December rate cut is uncertain, and the market's expectation of liquidity tightening has changed, with the probability of a December rate cut exceeding 50% [2][33] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Global Market Overview This Week - Market risk appetite declined, most stocks fell, bond yields mostly decreased, and the US bond yield dropped to 4.06%. The US dollar index rose 0.89% to 100.2, non - US currencies depreciated, gold fell 0.5% to $4065 per ounce, the VIX index rose to 23.4, and the spot commodity index declined, with Brent crude oil dropping 2.2% to $62.33 per barrel [1][5][9] 3.2 Market Trading Logic and Asset Performance 3.2.1 Stock Market - Global stock markets mostly declined, with significant drops in US and A - shares. The September non - farm payroll report did not strengthen the Fed's rate - cut expectation, and the Fed's internal differences intensified. The stock market was suppressed, and it is expected that the stock market will continue to oscillate weakly [10][11][13] 3.2.2 Bond Market - Global bond yields mostly declined, with the 10 - year US bond yield dropping to 4.06%. The decline was driven by the inflow of funds from the falling stock market. However, the Fed's hawkish stance limited the downward space of long - term bond yields. The domestic bond market in China oscillated weakly [14][17][20] 3.2.3 Foreign Exchange Market - The US dollar index rose 0.89% to 100.2, and all non - US currencies depreciated. The offshore RMB gained 0.08%, the euro fell 0.94%, the pound fell 0.55%, the yen fell 1.2%, and others also declined [23][24][26] 3.2.4 Commodity Market - Gold fell 0.5% to $4065 per ounce, and it is in an oscillating pattern with a risk of decline. Brent crude oil fell 2.2% to $62.33 per barrel, and the commodity spot index declined due to the weak supply - demand pattern of oil and the strong US dollar [27][29][32] 3.3 Hotspot Tracking - The September US non - farm payroll data exceeded expectations, with the number of new jobs being 119,000, higher than the expected 50,000. The unemployment rate rose to 4.4%, and the wage growth rate remained high at 3.8% year - on - year [2][31][33] 3.4 Next Week's Important Event Tips - Monday: US November Dallas Fed Business Activity Index - Tuesday: US September retail sales, PPI, housing price index; US November Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index - Wednesday: US weekly initial jobless claims, September durable goods orders and new home sales; US November Chicago PMI - Thursday: Eurozone November economic sentiment index; Fed releases the Beige Book; ECB October interest rate meeting minutes - Friday: France and Germany October CPI [35]

Group 1 - Japan's Prime Minister, Taro Kono, made erroneous statements leading to heightened tensions in Sino-Japanese relations, prompting China to implement countermeasures such as suspending multiple exchanges and restricting Japanese seafood imports, which indirectly affects Japan's manufacturing supply chain [1] - Market risk aversion has surged, with investors concerned about regional stability, resulting in accelerated capital withdrawal from the Japanese market. Invesco strategist Kinoshita noted that the deterioration of Sino-Japanese relations is a significant driver of the "sell Japan" trend [1] Group 2 - On November 21, Kono's cabinet announced a 21.3 trillion yen (approximately 140 billion USD) economic stimulus plan aimed at revitalizing the sluggish economy, which has raised fears of worsening Japan's fiscal situation [3] - Japanese government bonds have faced sell-offs, with bond yields rising for several consecutive days, and the 30-year bond yield reaching a historic high, indicating a potential collapse risk for the world's third-largest bond market [3] - The yen is under devaluation pressure, nearing the 160 mark, which approaches the intervention threshold set by the Bank of Japan [3] - The Nikkei 225 index experienced a significant drop of over 2,500 points in a single week, erasing all gains since Kono took office [3] Group 3 - Investors are worried that Japan may repeat the "mini-budget crisis" seen during former UK Prime Minister Liz Truss's tenure, where aggressive fiscal policies led to a collapse in market confidence [4] Group 4 - Japan's GDP contracted at an annualized rate of 1.8% in the third quarter, marking a return to negative growth after the first quarter of 2024, primarily due to weak domestic demand and export challenges from U.S. tariffs [6] - High valuations in technology stocks have led to correction pressures, compounded by fiscal risks, creating a vicious cycle of "sell-off in stocks, bonds, and currency" [6] - Analysts warn that if Kono loses policy credibility, the sell-off could extend to all Japanese assets, indicating that the current "sell Japan" trend is still in its early stages [6] - There is a critical need for the Kono administration to balance fiscal expansion with debt management; otherwise, prolonged diplomatic stalemates could lead to systemic crises [6] - Bloomberg analysis suggests Japan must find a balance between policy credibility and market stability to avoid a repeat of the "lost decade" [6]

Group 1 - The core conclusion indicates that since November, the US stock market has continued to weaken, with increased volatility in the A-share market. The main reasons for the recent volatility in the US market include a cooling expectation of interest rate cuts in December, a decline in market risk appetite, and significant concerns regarding the degree of AI bubble. The S&P 500's price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio is at a high level, approaching the peak during the dot-com bubble, while the Nasdaq index's P/E ratio is also high but still has a considerable distance from the dot-com bubble peak [2][8][9] - The financial pressure on major US tech companies is rapidly increasing, with some financial pressure indicators nearing levels seen during the dot-com bubble. The capital expenditure to revenue ratio for the seven major US tech companies has risen to 19% as of Q3 2025, compared to a peak of 10% during the dot-com bubble. Additionally, the capital expenditure to free cash flow ratio has exceeded 100%, indicating significant financial strain [3][16][20] - The report emphasizes that the core factors influencing the magnitude and duration of overseas market volatility are liquidity and inflation, rather than earnings. Historical examples show that liquidity tightening due to interest rate hikes has led to valuation corrections in high-valuation sectors. The most critical factor for the sustainability of a slow bull market in the US is persistent low inflation [3][23][28] Group 2 - The report suggests that the current valuation levels of the US stock market indicate a bubble-like state, with the S&P 500's P/E ratio exceeding the average by more than one standard deviation since 2000. The peak P/E ratio was approximately 29.8 times at the end of October, close to the 30 times peak during the dot-com bubble [11][12][14] - The report also notes that the potential for the Federal Reserve to continue cutting interest rates in 2026 is higher, with a low probability of aggressive rate hikes leading to a valuation bubble burst. The ongoing strength of the US stock market since October 2022 is attributed more to easing inflation than to changes in earnings [28][29] - The report highlights tactical and strategic views on the market, indicating that while the foundation for a bull market remains solid, there may be wide fluctuations due to weak economic data and adjustments in overseas markets. There are opportunities for upward movement in the A-share market if there are positive policy or funding changes by the end of the year [29][34]

纽约联储主席威廉姆斯暗示年内仍有降息空间。 *三大股指全面走高 *纽约联储主席释放降息信号 *CPI、非农数据双双缺席 美国三大股指周五集体反弹，纽约联储主席释放年内进一步降息信号，推动市场情绪改善。不过，在科 技板块承压的背景下，三大指数本周仍录得明显跌幅。 根据CME FedWatch工具，市场预期美联储12月降息25个基点的概率已升至70%以上，较前一天不到 40%大幅上升。 美国劳工统计局宣布取消原定11月13日发布的10月消费者物价指数（CPI）报告，原因是拨款中断导致 无法采集数据，且无法补采。同时，原定12月10日公布的11月CPI将推迟至12月18日发布，即晚于美联 储12月决议。这意味着美联储将在缺少关键通胀数据的情况下作出下一步政策决定。 InfrastructureCapitalAdvisors创始人兼CEO杰伊·哈特菲尔德称，是否降息最终仍取决于"下一份就业报告 是否足够疲弱"。 个股方面，美国制药巨头礼来公司上涨1.57%，市值突破1万亿美元，成为全球首家达到这一里程碑的 制药企业，今年以来累计涨幅达37%。 甲骨文大跌5.66%，为当日表现最弱的大型科技股之一。潜在的网络安全漏洞、 ...

美东时间周五，纽约联储主席威廉姆斯出面"安抚市场"的鸽派言论发表之后，美联储12月降息预期有所回温，市场信 心受到提振，美股三大指数最终集体收涨。截至收盘，道指涨1.08%，标普500指数涨0.98%，纳指涨0.88%。 美国劳工统计局取消了其10月份的消费者价格指数（CPI）报告，而11月份的报告将于12月18日发布。这意味着美联 储官员在12月议息会议前无法获得关键的11月CPI报告及非农就业报告。 美国密歇根大学周五公布的数据显示，11月消费者信心终值降至历史新低。 美股三大指数集体收涨 美东时间周五，美股三大指数集体收涨，其中道指涨幅最大。截至收盘，道指涨1.08%，报46245.41点；标普500指数 涨0.98%，报6602.99点；纳指涨0.88%，报22273.08点。 但周五的反弹仍不足以弥补本周之前的大跌。周线来看，纳指累计跌2.74%，标普500指数跌1.95%，道指跌1.91%。 大型科技股涨跌不一，英伟达跌0.96%，微软跌1.32%，苹果涨1.97%，谷歌涨3.53%，亚马逊涨1.63%，Meta涨 0.87%，特斯拉跌1.05%，博通跌1.91%，甲骨文跌5.66%。 热门中概股 ...

Market Performance - US stock indices reversed their downward trend, with all three major indices closing up by approximately 1% on November 21 [4][3] - The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose by 1.08% to 46,245.41 points, the S&P 500 increased by 0.98% to 6,602.99 points, while the Nasdaq Composite fell by 0.88% to 22,273.08 points [4] - Weekly performance showed all three indices had declined, with the Nasdaq down 2.74%, the Dow down 1.91%, and the S&P 500 down 1.95% [4] Technology Sector - The decline in technology stocks narrowed, with the US Technology Seven Giants Index rising by 0.71% [5] - Nvidia's stock fluctuated, initially dropping over 4% before recovering to a gain of 1.9%, while Google surged by 3.35% [5] - Year-to-date performance for major tech stocks showed Nvidia down 0.94%, Apple up 1.97%, and Google up 3.35% [6] Chinese Stocks - The Nasdaq Golden Dragon China Index rose by 1.23%, with notable gains in NIO (over 3%), Beike, Li Auto, and Tencent Music (over 2%) [5] - Year-to-date performance for key Chinese stocks included Alibaba down 0.20%, Netease down 0.28%, and JD.com up 1.94% [7] Gold Market - Spot gold prices rebounded above $4,100 per ounce, closing at $4,064.279 per ounce [2][9] - The gold market experienced volatility, with a weekly decline of 0.44% [9] Federal Reserve Signals - Federal Reserve officials indicated a potential interest rate cut in December, with the probability of a 25 basis point cut rising from 39.1% to approximately 70% [2][14] - Comments from Fed officials, including Williams, suggested a dovish stance, supporting the notion of a rate cut due to current economic conditions [13][16] - The upcoming Federal Reserve meeting in December is expected to be contentious, with differing opinions among officials regarding the necessity of a rate cut [17][18]

2025.11. 22 本文字数：1163，阅读时长大约2分钟 作者 | 第一财经 胡弋杰 *三大股指全面走高 *威廉姆斯释放降息信号 纽约联储主席威廉姆斯在智利圣地亚哥的讲话中称，当前货币政策仍处于"温和限制性水平"，但紧缩 力度已较此前有所缓和，未来仍有空间将政策立场向中性靠拢，以平衡美联储"双重使命"。作为美联 储决策核心成员，他的言论被市场视为12月继续降息的明确信号。 根据CME FedWatch工具，市场预期美联储12月降息25个基点的概率已升至70%以上，较前一天不 到40%大幅上升。 美国劳工统计局宣布取消原定11月13日发布的10月消费者物价指数（CPI）报告，原因是拨款中断导 致无法采集数据，且无法补采。同时，原定12月10日公布的11月CPI将推迟至12月18日发布，即晚于 美联储12月决议。这意味着美联储将在缺少关键通胀数据的情况下作出下一步政策决定。 InfrastructureCapitalAdvisors创始人兼CEO杰伊·哈特菲尔德称，是否降息最终仍取决于"下一份就 业报告是否足够疲弱"。 个股方面，美国制药巨头礼来公司上涨1.57%，市值突破1万亿美元，成为全球首家达到这一里 ...