1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The core driver of current oil price valuation is the development of the Israel - Iran conflict, which has intensified concerns about the supply side of the oil market. Overall, the center of oil prices will continue to move upward with large amplitude [1][3]. - For fuel oil, the supply - demand situation of high - sulfur fuel oil is stronger than that of low - sulfur fuel oil, and the LU - FU spread still has downward space [3]. - For asphalt, the short - term cost - end crude oil price fluctuates greatly, and BU is restricted by the demand side, with limited upward space and smaller increases than crude oil and fuel oil [3][4]. - For polyester, PX is expected to fluctuate with the cost side, TA has a situation of increasing supply and weak demand, and EG prices will fluctuate in the short term [4]. - For rubber, the rubber price will fluctuate under the situation of increasing supply and weak demand [6]. - For methanol, the price is expected to fluctuate strongly with increased volatility [6]. - For polyolefins, short - term price fluctuations will increase, and investors are advised to avoid risks in the short term [6][7]. - For PVC, the fundamentals still have pressure, and it is not recommended to continue short - selling before the market provides obvious space [7]. 3. Summaries According to Related Catalogs 3.1 Research Views Crude Oil - On Tuesday, the WTI July contract closed up $3.07 to $74.84 per barrel, a 4.28% increase; the Brent August contract closed up $3.22 to $76.45 per barrel, a 4.40% increase; SC2507 closed at 552.5 yuan per barrel, up 31.9 yuan per barrel, a 6.13% increase [1]. - The Israel - Iran conflict is intensifying. The IEA has lowered the average oil demand growth forecast for 2025 to 720,000 barrels per day and for 2026 to 740,000 barrels per day. It is expected that the global oil supply will increase by 1.8 million barrels per day in 2025 [1]. - In the week ending June 13, the US API crude oil inventory decreased by 10.133 million barrels, the largest single - week decline since the week ending August 25, 2023 [1]. Fuel Oil - On Tuesday, the main fuel oil contract FU2509 on the SHFE closed up 0.03% at 3,247 yuan per ton; the low - sulfur fuel oil contract LU2508 closed down 1.25% at 3,806 yuan per ton [3]. - In May, the average commercial inventory level of crude oil and fuel oil at Shandong coastal ports was 8.7 million tons, a slight 0.91% decline month - on - month [3]. Asphalt - On Tuesday, the main asphalt contract BU2509 on the SHFE closed down 0.03% at 3,644 yuan per ton [3]. - Next week, refinery resumption is expected to drive a slight increase in production, but overall supply will remain low. Northern demand is relatively stable, while southern demand is weak due to rain [3][4]. Polyester - TA509 closed at 4,782 yuan per ton on the previous day, up 0.34%; EG2509 closed at 4,400 yuan per ton, up 0.59% [4]. - A 400,000 - ton/year synthetic gas - to - ethylene glycol plant in Shaanxi is restarting, and a 500,000 - ton PX plant in Japan has stopped for maintenance [4]. Rubber - On Tuesday, the main natural rubber contract RU2509 closed down 40 yuan per ton to 13,870 yuan per ton; the NR main contract closed down 20 yuan per ton to 12,140 yuan per ton [4]. - Increased rainfall in the producing areas has led to不畅 raw material output at the beginning of tapping, and downstream demand is weak [6]. Methanol - On Tuesday, the Taicang spot price was 2,615 yuan per ton, and the Inner Mongolia northern line price was 1,987.5 yuan per ton [6]. - The inland inventory is rising, but the MTO plant operating rate remains high, and the port inventory increase will slow down [6]. Polyolefins - On Tuesday, the mainstream price of East China PP was 7,150 - 7,280 yuan per ton. Due to high geopolitical uncertainty, short - term price fluctuations will increase [6][7]. Polyvinyl Chloride (PVC) - On Tuesday, the East China PVC market fluctuated and consolidated. With the downstream entering the off - season, the fundamentals are under pressure [7]. 3.2 Daily Data Monitoring - The report provides the basis, futures prices, spot prices, basis rates, and other data of various energy and chemical products such as crude oil, liquefied petroleum gas, asphalt, etc. on June 17 and 16 [8]. 3.3 Market News - On June 17, the Middle East geopolitical situation was tense. Israel's Defense Minister Katz said the Israeli military had destroyed the central area of Iran's Natanz nuclear facility [10]. - The IEA has lowered the average oil demand growth forecast for 2025 and 2026 and expects sufficient oil supply in the market until 2030 [10]. 3.4 Chart Analysis 4.1 Main Contract Prices - The report presents the closing price charts of main contracts of various energy and chemical products from 2021 to 2025, including crude oil, fuel oil, etc. [12][14][16][18][20][22]. 4.2 Main Contract Basis - It shows the basis charts of main contracts of various energy and chemical products from 2021 to 2025, such as crude oil, fuel oil, etc. [25][27][33][36]. 4.3 Inter - period Contract Spreads - The report provides the spread charts of inter - period contracts of various energy and chemical products, including fuel oil, asphalt, etc. [39][41][44][47][49][52][55]. 4.4 Inter - variety Spreads - It presents the spread charts of inter - variety contracts of various energy and chemical products, such as crude oil internal - external spreads, fuel oil high - low sulfur spreads, etc. [57][58][59][62][63]. 4.5 Production Profits - The report shows the production profit charts of various energy and chemical products, including ethylene - based ethylene glycol, PP, etc. [64][65][67]. 3.5 Team Member Introduction - The report introduces the members of the Everbright Futures Energy and Chemical Research Team, including the assistant director and energy and chemical director Zhong Meiyan, and analysts Du Bingqin, Di Yilin, and Peng Haibo [71][72][73][74]. 3.6 Contact Information - The company's address is Unit 703, 6th Floor, No. 729 Yanggao South Road, China (Shanghai) Pilot Free Trade Zone. The company phone is 021 - 80212222, and the customer service hotline is 400 - 700 - 7979 [76].

光大期货能化商品日报 光大期货能化商品日报（2025 年 6 月 13 日） 一、研究观点 | 品种 | 点评 | 观点 | | --- | --- | --- | | | 周四油价重心小幅回落，其中 WTI 7 月合约收盘下跌 0.11 美元至 | | | | 68.04 美元/桶，跌幅 0.16%。布伦特 8 月合约收盘下跌 0.41 美元/ | | | | 桶，至 69.36 美元/桶，跌幅 0.59%。SC2507 以 494.4 元/桶收盘， | | | | 上涨 3.3 元/桶，涨幅为 0.67%。地缘风险仍在持续，美国国务院 | | | | 和军方表示，由于中东地区可能发生动荡，美国政府正在将非必 | | | | 要人员从该地区撤离。根据最新的审查结果和"确保美国人在国 | | | | 内外的安全"的承诺，已下令撤出美国驻巴格达大使馆的所有非 | 震荡 | | 原油 | 必要人员。该大使馆此前已实行人员限制，所以此命令不会影响 | | | | 大量人员。此外，美国国务院也批准非必要人员及其家属离开巴 | 偏强 | | | 林和科威特。随着油价的上行，成品油市场情绪积极，山东地炼 | | | | ...

光大期货能化商品日报 光大期货能化商品日报（2025 年 6 月 12 日） 一、研究观点 | 品种 | 点评 | 观点 | | --- | --- | --- | | | 周三油价再现突破式反弹，其中 WTI 7 月合约收盘上涨 3.17 美元 | | | | 至 68.15 美元/桶，涨幅 4.88%。布伦特 8 月合约收盘上涨 2.90 美 | | | | 元至 69.77 美元/桶，涨幅 4.34%。SC2507 以 497.4 元/桶收盘，上 | | | | 涨 16.2 元/桶，涨幅为 3.37%。昨天凌晨突发，中东地缘动荡进一 | | | | 步加剧，油价凌晨大幅拉高。美媒称，美国防长下令美军家属可 | | | | 从中东各地自愿撤离。美国军方正在与国务院及其在该地区的盟 | | | | 友合作，"保持持续的战备状态"。EIA 数据，上周美国原油库存 | 震荡 | | 原油 | 下降，因炼油活动增加，推高汽油和馏分油库存。截至 6 月 6 日 | 偏强 | | | 当周，美国商业原油库存减少 360 万桶至 4.324 亿桶，此前市场 | | | | 预期为减少200万桶。当周俄克拉荷马州的库欣 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating Not provided in the given content. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Crude oil is expected to rebound in the short - term, although the EIA monthly report has increased supply expectations, putting pressure on oil prices [1]. - Fuel oil is expected to show an oscillating trend. With cost - end rebounds, the absolute prices of FU and LU are expected to be oscillating and slightly stronger. Consider long spreads when the spread is low [2]. - Asphalt is expected to oscillate. Although there is bottom - support in the short - term, the upward space is limited, and there is a large downward pressure in the medium - term [2]. - Polyester is expected to oscillate. PX follows cost fluctuations, TA is under price pressure, and EG shows an oscillating trend [2][4]. - Rubber is expected to rebound, but the rebound space is limited due to high downstream tire inventory [4][5]. - Methanol is expected to oscillate. MTO device operation is at a high level, but port and inland inventories are rising [5]. - Polyolefins are expected to oscillate. Although short - term fundamental contradictions are not significant, inventory and supply are at high levels [5]. - PVC is expected to oscillate weakly. As the downstream enters the off - season, there is pressure on the fundamentals [7]. Summary by Directory 1. Research Views - **Crude Oil**: On Tuesday, WTI 7 - month contract closed down $0.31 to $64.98 per barrel, a 0.47% decline; Brent 8 - month contract closed down $0.17 to $66.87 per barrel, a 0.25% decline; SC2507 closed up 2.6 yuan to 481.5 yuan per barrel, a 0.54% increase. EIA expects 2025 global oil production to be 104.4 million barrels per day, up 300,000 barrels per day from the previous forecast, and global oil demand to be 103.5 million barrels per day, down 200,000 barrels per day. US oil production in June averaged 13.42 million barrels per day, down from 13.56 million barrels per day in May. API reported a 370,000 - barrel decrease in US crude inventory, a 3 - million - barrel increase in gasoline inventory, and a 3.7 - million - barrel increase in distillate inventory for the week ending June 6 [1]. - **Fuel Oil**: On Tuesday, the main fuel oil contract FU2507 on the SHFE closed up 0.85% at 2,966 yuan per ton, and the low - sulfur fuel oil contract LU2507 closed up. The Asian low - sulfur fuel oil market structure strengthened slightly due to expected supply tightness in June. The high - sulfur market structure was relatively stable, but the month - spread and spot premium declined from previous highs [2]. - **Asphalt**: On Tuesday, the main asphalt contract BU2507 on the SHFE closed down 0.85% at 3,507 yuan per ton. June asphalt supply in North China is low, and there is an expected supply reduction in Shandong. However, increased rainfall in the South is hindering demand. The expected 2025 January - June asphalt production in China is about 13.1 million tons [2]. - **Polyester**: TA509 closed up 0.22% at 4,612 yuan per ton, EG2509 closed up 0.31% at 4,269 yuan per ton, and PX futures contract 509 closed up 0.12% at 6,502 yuan per ton. The average sales of polyester yarn in Jiangsu and Zhejiang were estimated at 50 - 60%. A 1.2 - million - ton PTA device in East China is shut down, and the ethylene glycol main port is expected to receive 128,000 tons from June 9 - 15. PX is in a de - stocking pattern, TA fundamentals are weak, and EG shows an oscillating trend [2][4]. - **Rubber**: On Tuesday, the main rubber contract RU2509 closed up 80 yuan at 13,805 yuan per ton, and NR closed up 105 yuan at 12,155 yuan per ton. In May, the national passenger car retail volume reached 1.932 million, a 13.3% year - on - year increase. The first typhoon may land in Hainan, and Thai raw material supply has been affected by rainfall [4]. - **Methanol**: On Tuesday, the spot price in Taicang was 2,380 yuan per ton. MTO device operation is at a high level, but port and inland inventories are rising [5]. - **Polyolefins**: On Tuesday, the mainstream price of East China drawn polypropylene was 7,020 - 7,230 yuan per ton. With the arrival of the off - season, downstream demand has declined, but short - term fundamental contradictions are not significant [5]. - **PVC**: On Tuesday, the East China PVC market was firm. Domestic real estate construction is stable, but demand is expected to weaken as the off - season approaches [7]. 2. Daily Data Monitoring - Provides data on the basis, spot price, futures price, basis rate, and their changes for various energy - chemical products such as crude oil, liquefied petroleum gas, asphalt, and fuel oil on June 11, 2025 [8]. 3. Market News - On June 10, the EIA released a monthly energy outlook report, adjusting the 2025 global oil production and demand forecasts, and also providing forecasts for US oil production and demand [10]. - On June 10, the first - day meeting of the China - US economic and trade consultation mechanism was held. After the high - level talks, both sides suspended some tariffs for 90 days and agreed to establish a consultation mechanism [10]. - On June 10, the API reported that US crude inventory decreased, while gasoline and distillate inventories increased for the week ending June 6 [11]. 4. Chart Analysis - **4.1 Main Contract Prices**: Displays the closing price trends of main contracts for various energy - chemical products from 2021 - 2025, including crude oil, fuel oil, asphalt, etc. [13][14][15] - **4.2 Main Contract Basis**: Shows the basis trends of main contracts for various products, such as crude oil, fuel oil, and asphalt [29][31] - **4.3 Inter - period Contract Spreads**: Presents the spread trends between different contracts for products like fuel oil, asphalt, and PTA [44][46][49] - **4.4 Inter - product Spreads**: Displays the spread trends between different products, such as the spread between high - and low - sulfur fuel oil, and the ratio of fuel oil to asphalt [61][63] - **4.5 Production Profits**: Shows the cash - flow trends of ethylene - based ethylene glycol production and the production profit trends of PP and LLDPE [70][72][75] 5. Team Member Introduction - Introduces the members of the research team, including their positions, educational backgrounds, honors, and research areas [77][78][79]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - All products in the report are rated as "oscillating" [1][2][3][4][6] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The oil price center continued to move up on Monday, but the increase in OPEC production and the slowdown in China's import growth may put pressure on high oil prices, and the sustainability of the rebound should be monitored [1] - The Asian low - sulfur fuel oil market structure has strengthened slightly, and the high - sulfur market structure is relatively stable, but the spread and spot premium have declined. The absolute prices of FU and LU are expected to oscillate strongly, and long spreads can be considered [2] - The supply of asphalt in North China is low, and there is an expectation of supply reduction in Shandong, which provides bottom support. However, rainfall in the South restricts demand, and the upward space is limited [2] - The fundamentals of TA are weak, and the price is expected to be under pressure. The EG price is expected to oscillate, and attention should be paid to port shipments and polyester production cuts [3] - Short - term weather disrupts rubber production, and downstream tire demand declines slightly, so the rubber rebound space is limited [4] - The MTO device operation rate remains high, but the port and inland inventories are rising, and the methanol price is expected to oscillate [6] - The short - term fundamentals of polyolefins have few contradictions, but high inventory and supply put pressure on valuation, and the price is expected to oscillate weakly [6] - The PVC downstream is entering the off - season, and the fundamentals are under pressure, and the price is expected to oscillate weakly [7] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Research Views - **Crude Oil**: WTI 7 - month contract closed up $0.71 to $65.29/barrel, Brent 8 - month contract closed up $0.57 to $67.04/barrel, and SC2507 closed up 5.5 yuan to 479.3 yuan/barrel. OPEC production increased, China's imports decreased in May, and the overall macro - atmosphere is optimistic, but the refinery profit may be under pressure [1] - **Fuel Oil**: The main contracts of FU2507 and LU2507 fell on Monday. The low - sulfur market structure strengthened slightly, and the high - sulfur market was relatively stable. The short - term cost rebound may lead to an oscillating - upward trend of absolute prices [2] - **Asphalt**: The main contract BU2507 rose on Monday. The supply in North China is low, and there is a supply reduction expectation in Shandong. However, rainfall in the South restricts demand, and the upward space is limited [2] - **Polyester**: TA509 and EG2509 closed down, and PX also fell. The production and operation of some devices changed, and the overall fundamentals of TA are weak, while EG is expected to oscillate [3] - **Rubber**: The main contracts of RU2509 and NR rose, and BR fell. The inventory in Qingdao decreased, and Myanmar has an export target. Short - term weather and demand factors limit the rebound space [4] - **Methanol**: The spot and international prices are given. The MTO device operation rate is high, but inventory is rising, and the price is expected to oscillate [6] - **Polyolefins**: The prices and production profits of different types of polyolefins are presented. The short - term fundamentals have few contradictions, but high inventory and supply put pressure on valuation [6] - **Polyvinyl Chloride (PVC)**: The prices in different regions are stable or adjusted. The real - estate construction is stable, but the downstream is entering the off - season, and the price is expected to oscillate weakly [6][7] 3.2 Daily Data Monitoring - Provides the basis data (including spot price, futures price, basis, basis rate, etc.) of various energy - chemical products on June 10, 2025, and also gives the basis change and the quantile of the latest basis rate in historical data [8] 3.3 Market News - The first meeting of the China - US economic and trade consultation mechanism was held in London, aiming to implement the strategic communication between the two heads of state and promote the healthy development of bilateral economic and trade relations [10] - In May, OPEC's crude oil production increase was lower than the target, with some countries under - producing [10] - In May 2025, China imported 46.6 million tons of crude oil, a month - on - month decrease of 3.0% and a year - on - year decrease of 0.8%. From January to May, the cumulative import was 229.615 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 0.3% [11] 3.4 Chart Analysis - **4.1 Main Contract Prices**: Displays the closing price charts of main contracts of various energy - chemical products from 2021 to 2025, including crude oil, fuel oil, etc. [13][14][15][17][20][22][24][25][27] - **4.2 Main Contract Basis**: Presents the basis charts of main contracts of various energy - chemical products from 2021 to 2025, such as crude oil, fuel oil, etc. [28][33][34][37][40][42] - **4.3 Inter - period Contract Spreads**: Shows the spread charts of different contracts of various energy - chemical products, including fuel oil, asphalt, etc. [44][46][49][52][55][57] - **4.4 Inter - variety Spreads**: Displays the spread and ratio charts between different varieties, such as crude oil internal - external spreads, fuel oil high - low sulfur spreads, etc. [59][61][63][66] - **4.5 Production Profits**: Presents the cash - flow and profit charts of some energy - chemical products, such as ethylene - based ethylene glycol and PP [68][69][71] 3.5 Team Member Introduction - **Zhong Meiyan**: Assistant to the director and director of energy - chemical research at Everbright Futures Research Institute. With over a decade of experience in futures and derivatives market research, she has won many awards and has rich experience in serving enterprises [73] - **Du Bingqin**: Analyst for crude oil, natural gas, fuel oil, asphalt, and shipping at Everbright Futures Research Institute. She has in - depth industry research experience and has won multiple awards [74] - **Di Yilin**: Rubber and polyester analyst at Everbright Futures Research Institute. She has won several awards and is good at data analysis [75] - **Peng Haibo**: Analyst for methanol, PE, PP, and PVC at Everbright Futures Research Institute. He has experience in energy - chemical spot - futures trading and has passed the CFA Level III exam [76]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - The overall view of the energy - chemical products market is that most varieties are expected to show a volatile trend. For example, crude oil, fuel oil, asphalt, polyester, rubber, methanol, polyolefins, and polyvinyl chloride are all rated as "volatile" [1][3]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Research Views - **Crude Oil**: On Wednesday, the price center of oil rose. WTI July contract closed up $0.95 to $61.84 per barrel, a 1.56% increase; Brent July contract closed up $0.81 to $64.9 per barrel, a 1.26% increase; SC2507 closed at 457.4 yuan per barrel, up 3.8 yuan per barrel, a 0.84% increase. OPEC+ did not adjust production policy on Wednesday but agreed to set a benchmark for 2027 oil production. There is a possibility of accelerated production increase in July. API data showed that US crude and gasoline inventories decreased last week while distillate inventories increased [1]. - **Fuel Oil**: On Wednesday, the main fuel oil contract FU2507 on the Shanghai Futures Exchange rose 0.13% to 2986 yuan per ton, and the low - sulfur fuel oil contract LU2507 fell 1.03% to 3469 yuan per ton. In April 2025, China's fuel oil production was 3.563 million tons, down 8.73% month - on - month and up 2.86% year - on - year. In May, sales are expected to rise steadily. The Asian high - sulfur market will remain strong in the short term, but the demand for high - sulfur raw materials from refineries is still suppressed [3]. - **Asphalt**: On Wednesday, the main asphalt contract BU2507 on the Shanghai Futures Exchange fell 0.91% to 3481 yuan per ton. This week, the total inventory level of domestic refineries was 30.39%, up 0.08% from last week; the social inventory rate was 34.59%, down 0.24% from last week; the total operating rate of domestic asphalt plants was 30.49%, up 1.49% from last week. The short - term supply pressure of refineries is limited, but production may increase. The demand in the south is expected to be lower than expected due to the rainy season [3]. - **Polyester**: TA509 closed at 4672 yuan per ton, down 1.43%; EG2509 closed at 4311 yuan per ton, down 1.73%. A 400,000 - ton/year synthetic gas - to - ethylene glycol plant in Shaanxi reduced production for maintenance. The expected arrival volume at the main port of ethylene glycol this week is low. Downstream polyester manufacturers plan to cut production, and polyester prices are expected to fluctuate with the cost [5]. - **Rubber**: On Wednesday, the main rubber contract RU2509 fell 690 yuan per ton to 13805 yuan per ton, NR fell 670 yuan per ton to 12245 yuan per ton, and butadiene rubber BR fell 495 yuan per ton to 11150 yuan per ton. From January to April, Vietnam's total exports of natural rubber and mixed rubber decreased by 5.9% year - on - year. The rubber market shows a volatile trend [5]. - **Methanol**: The supply of methanol has decreased due to increased domestic plant maintenance but remains at a high level in the past five years. Overseas plant operation rates have decreased, but short - term arrivals are recovering. MTO plant operation rates have increased, and port and inland inventories are at low levels. Methanol prices are expected to remain volatile [7]. - **Polyolefins**: The mainstream price of East China drawn wire is 7000 - 7250 yuan per ton. The upstream is under maintenance, and the overall supply pressure is not large. Downstream enterprises are increasing raw material purchases, and inventories are decreasing. However, both inventory and supply are at relatively high levels, and polyolefin prices are expected to remain volatile [7]. - **Polyvinyl Chloride**: On Wednesday, PVC prices in East, North, and South China decreased. Supply is expected to increase as maintenance devices resume operation. Domestic real estate construction is stable, and the operating rates of pipes and profiles remain relatively stable. PVC prices are expected to be volatile and weak [9]. 3.2 Daily Data Monitoring - The report provides the spot price, futures price, basis, basis rate, and other data of various energy - chemical products on May 29, 2025, including crude oil, liquefied petroleum gas, asphalt, fuel oil, methanol, etc. [10] 3.3 Market News - API data showed that last week, US crude and gasoline inventories decreased while distillate inventories increased. As of the week of May 23, US crude inventories decreased by 4.24 million barrels, gasoline inventories decreased by 528,000 barrels, and distillate inventories increased by 1.3 million barrels [12]. - The Iraqi oil minister urged member states to comply with the agreement reached at the OPEC meeting, emphasizing the importance of unity for market stability [12] 3.4 Chart Analysis - **4.1 Main Contract Prices**: The report presents the historical closing price charts of the main contracts of various energy - chemical products from 2021 to 2025, including crude oil, fuel oil, LPG, PTA, etc. [14][15] - **4.2 Main Contract Basis**: It shows the historical basis charts of the main contracts of various energy - chemical products, such as crude oil, fuel oil, and asphalt [31] - **4.3 Inter - period Contract Spreads**: The report provides the historical spread charts of different contracts of various energy - chemical products, including fuel oil, asphalt, PTA, etc. [47] - **4.4 Inter - variety Spreads**: It presents the historical spread and ratio charts between different varieties of energy - chemical products, such as crude oil internal and external spreads, fuel oil high - low sulfur spreads, etc. [63] - **4.5 Production Profits**: The report shows the historical production profit charts of some energy - chemical products, such as ethylene - to - ethylene glycol and PP [72] 3.5 Team Member Introduction - The report introduces the members of the energy - chemical research team, including the director, analysts for different product categories, and their educational backgrounds, honors, and professional experiences [77][78][79]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The overall oil price will continue to fluctuate weakly in the short - term, and attention should be paid to the latest developments of the OPEC meeting [1]. - The fuel oil market will fluctuate. The Asian high - sulfur market will remain firm in the short - term, but the demand for high - sulfur raw materials from refineries is still suppressed. The previous positions of the LU - FU spread can be gradually closed for profit [3]. - The asphalt market will fluctuate. The upward space of asphalt is limited, and there is a risk of inventory accumulation. A strategy of shorting the far - month cracking spread can be considered [3][5]. - The polyester market will fluctuate. The PX price and PXN have support at the bottom, and attention should be paid to the supply pressure relief brought by the increase in PX restart. The short - term PTA basis is strongly volatile, and the ethylene glycol price can be considered to be in a strong - oscillating trend [5][7]. - The rubber market will fluctuate. The rubber price shows a weakly - oscillating trend, and the butadiene rubber price is under pressure [7]. - The methanol market will fluctuate. The methanol price is expected to maintain an oscillating trend [8]. - The polyolefin market will fluctuate. The polyolefin is expected to maintain an oscillating trend, but there is still pressure on the valuation [8]. - The PVC market will fluctuate weakly. As the devices gradually resume production, the PVC price is expected to fluctuate weakly [9]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Research Views - **Crude Oil**: On Tuesday, the oil price center declined. OPEC + may agree to further accelerate oil production increases. The US - Iran nuclear negotiation has no obvious progress, and the market's concern about supply has eased. The short - term oil price will continue to fluctuate weakly [1]. - **Fuel Oil**: On Tuesday, the main fuel oil contracts showed different trends. The Singapore marine fuel sales in April had a certain change. In May, the sales are expected to rise steadily. The Asian high - sulfur market is strong in the short - term, but the refinery's demand for high - sulfur raw materials is restricted [3]. - **Asphalt**: On Tuesday, the main asphalt contract rose slightly. The domestic asphalt production in June is expected to decline slightly month - on - month and increase year - on - year. The short - term supply pressure of refineries is limited, but the demand may be lower than expected [3]. - **Polyester**: On Tuesday, the polyester - related contracts had different price changes. Multiple PX devices have plans for load increase or restart. The polyester start - up rate is high, and the PX price and PXN have support at the bottom [5]. - **Rubber**: On Tuesday, the rubber - related contracts rose. The Sino - Thai zero - tariff negotiation has not reached a final result, the supply - side raw material price has fallen, and the butadiene rubber price is under pressure [7]. - **Methanol**: On Tuesday, the methanol - related prices are given. The domestic methanol supply has decreased due to increased device maintenance, but it is still at a high level in the past 5 years. The methanol price is expected to oscillate [8]. - **Polyolefin**: On Tuesday, the polyolefin - related prices and profits are provided. The upstream maintenance is high, the supply pressure is not large, and the downstream inventory is decreasing. The polyolefin is expected to oscillate [8]. - **Polyvinyl Chloride**: On Tuesday, the PVC market prices in different regions decreased. The supply is expected to increase as the maintenance devices resume, and the demand is relatively stable. The PVC price is expected to fluctuate weakly [9]. 3.2 Daily Data Monitoring - The report provides the spot price, futures price, basis, basis rate, and their changes of various energy - chemical varieties on May 27 and May 26, 2025, as well as the historical data of basis rate changes and other information [10]. 3.3 Market News - A preliminary survey shows that the US crude oil, distillate, and gasoline inventories may increase last week [12]. - Norway's oil and gas industry investment will reach a record high this year, with an estimated total investment of $26.6 billion, a 6% increase from the previous quarter's forecast [12]. 3.4 Chart Analysis - **4.1 Main Contract Prices**: The report presents the closing price charts of main contracts of various energy - chemical varieties from 2021 to 2025, including crude oil, fuel oil, etc. [14][15][18] - **4.2 Main Contract Basis**: It shows the basis charts of main contracts of various energy - chemical varieties from 2021 to 2025, such as crude oil, fuel oil, etc. [31][36][43] - **4.3 Inter - period Contract Spreads**: The report provides the spread charts of different contracts of various energy - chemical varieties, including fuel oil, asphalt, etc. [46][48][54] - **4.4 Inter - variety Spreads**: It presents the spread charts of different varieties of energy - chemical products, such as crude oil internal and external markets, fuel oil high - low sulfur, etc. [61][63][65] - **4.5 Production Profits**: The report shows the production profit charts of some energy - chemical products, such as ethylene - based ethylene glycol, PP, etc. [70]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The current oil prices will continue to fluctuate due to factors such as OPEC+ production increase discussions, non - compliance of some member countries, and the deadlock in US - Iran nuclear negotiations [1]. - The absolute price volatility of fuel oil (FU and LU) is expected to increase in the short term, and the strategy of narrowing the LU - FU spread can be continued [3]. - The absolute price volatility of asphalt (BU) is expected to increase in the short term. BU may be a relatively weak variety among oil products, and a strategy of shorting the cracking spread can be considered [3][5]. - PTA and ethylene glycol should be treated with a short - term oscillatory mindset [5]. - The price of natural rubber will oscillate in the short term [5][7]. - The price fluctuation of methanol may increase, and attention should be paid to MTO device复产 plans and Iranian device changes [7]. - Polyolefins are expected to maintain an oscillatory trend [7][9]. - The price of PVC is expected to oscillate weakly [9]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Research Views - **Crude Oil**: On Thursday, international oil prices fell for the third consecutive day. OPEC+ is discussing a possible large - scale production increase in July. Saudi Arabia warned non - compliant members. The US - Iran nuclear negotiation is at a deadlock, and the market is in a wait - and - see mood. The oil price will oscillate [1]. - **Fuel Oil**: On Thursday, the main contracts of fuel oil (FU2507) and low - sulfur fuel oil (LU2507) fell. Singapore and Fujeirah fuel oil inventories increased. The supply of low - sulfur fuel oil may be tight before June, and high - sulfur fuel oil inventory is being digested. The absolute price volatility of FU and LU is expected to increase, and the LU - FU spread has shown an inflection point [3]. - **Asphalt**: On Thursday, the main asphalt contract (BU2507) rose. This week, the shipment volume of domestic asphalt enterprises increased, and the capacity utilization rate of modified asphalt enterprises increased. Supply may rise in June, but some refineries may reduce production next week. Demand is supported in the north but weak in the south. The absolute price volatility of BU is expected to increase, and it may be a relatively weak variety [3][5]. - **Polyester**: TA509, EG2509, and PX futures contracts fell. The sales of polyester yarn in Jiangsu and Zhejiang were light. An EO - EG联产 device stopped working, and two synthetic gas - to - ethylene glycol devices in Henan will be shut down for maintenance. PX supply supports PXN, and PTA devices are restarting. Polyester operating load is high, and ethylene glycol port inventory is expected to decrease. Both PTA and ethylene glycol should be treated with an oscillatory mindset [5]. - **Rubber**: On Thursday, the main rubber contracts (RU2509, NR, BR) showed different trends. The operating load of domestic tire enterprises decreased. The low production at the beginning of rubber tapping and rainfall in overseas production areas support raw material prices. Rubber imports increased, and Qingdao inventory decreased slightly. The price of natural rubber will oscillate [5][7]. - **Methanol**: Supply has decreased due to domestic device maintenance but is still at a high level in the past five years. Iranian device load has dropped, and the expected arrival volume in the far - month is expected to decrease, but the short - term arrival volume is recovering. MTO device operation has not changed much, and port and inland inventories are low. The price fluctuation of methanol may increase [7]. - **Polyolefins**: The prices of polypropylene (PP) and polyethylene (PE) showed different trends. There are many upstream maintenance activities, and supply pressure is not large. Demand has increased due to tariff reduction, and inventory has decreased. However, both inventory and supply are at high levels, and polyolefins are expected to maintain an oscillatory trend [7][9]. - **Polyvinyl Chloride (PVC)**: On Thursday, the PVC market prices in East, North, and South China showed different trends. Maintenance devices will resume production, and new maintenance is limited, so production is expected to increase. Domestic real - estate construction is stable, but demand will weaken in the off - season. The price of PVC is expected to oscillate weakly [9]. 3.2 Daily Data Monitoring - The report provides the basis data of various energy - chemical products on May 23, 2025, including spot price, futures price, basis, basis rate, price change rate, and the quantile of the latest basis rate in historical data [10]. 3.3 Market News - OPEC+ is discussing a possible large - scale production increase in the June 1 meeting, and a daily production increase of 411,000 barrels in July is one of the options under discussion [13]. - Turkey's imports of Urals crude oil will increase in May as its top refinery Tupras has resumed purchasing Russian crude oil, which is traded below the Western price cap of $60 per barrel [13]. 3.4 Chart Analysis - **4.1 Main Contract Prices**: The report presents the closing price charts of main contracts of various energy - chemical products from 2021 to 2025, including crude oil, fuel oil, low - sulfur fuel oil, asphalt, LPG, PTA, ethylene glycol, etc. [15][16][17] - **4.2 Main Contract Basis**: The report shows the basis charts of main contracts of various energy - chemical products, such as crude oil, fuel oil, low - sulfur fuel oil, asphalt, etc. [30][32][39] - **4.3 Inter - period Contract Spreads**: The report provides the spread charts of inter - period contracts of various energy - chemical products, including fuel oil, asphalt, PTA, ethylene glycol, etc. [45][47][50] - **4.4 Inter - variety Spreads**: The report presents the spread and ratio charts of different varieties of energy - chemical products, such as crude oil internal - external spreads, fuel oil high - low sulfur spreads, BU/SC ratio, etc. [60][62][65] - **4.5 Production Profits**: The report shows the production profit charts of various energy - chemical products, including ethylene - based ethylene glycol, PP, LLDPE, etc. [68][72] 3.5 Team Member Introduction - **Zhong Meiyan**: Assistant Director of the Research Institute and Director of Energy - Chemical Research, with a master's degree from Shanghai University of Finance and Economics. She has won multiple awards and has over ten years of experience in futures derivatives market research [74]. - **Du Bingqin**: Analyst for crude oil, natural gas, fuel oil, asphalt, and shipping, with a master's degree in applied economics from the University of Wisconsin - Madison. She has won multiple awards and has in - depth research on the energy industry [75]. - **Di Yilin**: Analyst for natural rubber and polyester, with a master's degree in finance. She has won multiple awards and is good at data analysis [76]. - **Peng Haibo**: Analyst for methanol, PE, PP, and PVC, with a master's degree in engineering from China University of Petroleum (East China) and a mid - level economist title [77]. 3.6 Contact Information - Company address: Unit 703, 6th Floor, No. 729 Yanggao South Road, China (Shanghai) Pilot Free Trade Zone - Company phone: 021 - 80212222 - Fax: 021 - 80212200 - Customer service hotline: 400 - 700 - 7979 - Zip code: 200127 [79]

光大期货能化商品日报 光大期货能化商品日报（2025 年 5 月 20 日） 一、研究观点 | 品种 | 点评 | 观点 | | --- | --- | --- | | | 周一油价先跌后反弹，其中 WTI 6 月合约收盘上涨 0.2 美元至 | | | | 62.69 美元/桶，涨幅 0.32%。布伦特 7 月合约收盘上涨 0.13 美元 | | | | 至 65.54 美元/桶，涨幅 0.2%。SC2507 以 465.4 元/桶收盘，上涨 | | | | 4 元/桶，涨幅 0.87%。特朗普周一与俄罗斯总统普京通话后表示， | | | | 俄乌将"立即"开始就结束冲突进行谈判。克里姆林宫表示，两 | | | | 人并没有讨论俄方与乌克兰停火的潜在时间表。伊朗计划在 | | | | Kharg Island 出口码头增加了 200 万桶的原油储存能力，自 5 月 17 | | | 原油 | 日起生效。美伊核谈判的不确定性加剧市场波动。G7 于 2022 年 | 震荡 | | | 12 月达成价上限机制，禁止油轮运输交易价格高于每桶 60 美元 | | | | 的俄罗斯原油，并禁止相关实体为俄石油运输提供保 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - All the energy and chemical products in the report are rated as "oscillating" [1][3][4][6][8] 2. Core Views of the Report - **Crude Oil**: On Wednesday, oil prices declined slightly. The EIA data showed an increase in US crude oil inventories last week. Saudi Arabia's production increased in April, but the decline in production from some OPEC countries offset the growth. Russia is considering extending gasoline export restrictions. Oil prices are under pressure and oscillating after a continuous rebound [1]. - **Fuel Oil**: On Wednesday, fuel oil futures rose. In May, the volume of low - sulfur arbitrage cargo shipped from the European market to Singapore is expected to decrease, while the inventory in Singapore is increasing due to more low - sulfur fuel oil blending components from the Middle East and South America. The demand for high - sulfur fuel oil is expected to be strongly supported by the increase in summer power generation demand. The absolute prices of FU and LU may remain stable, and it is advisable to consider a strategy of narrowing the LU - FU spread later [3]. - **Asphalt**: On Wednesday, asphalt futures rose. This week, the total inventory of domestic refinery asphalt increased, the social inventory decreased, and the total operating rate of asphalt plants increased. Supply is expected to continue to increase, and market demand will increase slightly in the north but be affected by rainfall in the south. The absolute price of BU may remain stable, but the upside space is limited [3]. - **Polyester**: On Wednesday, polyester futures rose. The production and sales of polyester yarn in Jiangsu and Zhejiang were weak. Some MEG devices were under maintenance, and some polyester devices were restarted or newly put into operation. Crude oil prices strengthened, PTA device maintenance continued, and downstream inventory and operation rates were high. PTA futures may oscillate strongly, and the supply of ethylene glycol tightened in the short term, leading to a stronger price [4]. - **Rubber**: On Wednesday, rubber futures rose. As of May 11, 2025, China's natural rubber social inventory increased slightly. The shortage of butadiene and the strengthening of crude oil prices led to an obvious rebound in butadiene rubber prices. The performance of natural rubber was relatively weak, and the Sino - US joint statement had limited impact on rubber prices [6]. - **Methanol**: On Wednesday, methanol prices showed certain fluctuations. The domestic methanol supply is at a high level due to good producer profits, while the Iranian device load has declined, and the arrival volume is lower than expected. The MTO device maintenance has been implemented, and the operation of traditional downstream industries is relatively stable. Methanol prices will recover, but there is still pressure on the upside [6]. - **Polyolefins**: On Wednesday, polyolefin prices showed certain trends. Refinery maintenance is increasing, and supply pressure is being relieved. The Sino - US trade negotiation has made important progress, and there may be an intention to rush for exports in the short term, so polyolefin prices will recover [8]. - **Polyvinyl Chloride (PVC)**: On Wednesday, PVC market prices increased. The supply is at a high - level oscillation, and the demand is relatively stable. Although the Sino - US trade negotiation has made significant progress, the upside space for PVC is expected to be limited [8] 3. Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Research Views - **Crude Oil**: WTI June contract closed down $0.52 to $63.15 per barrel, a decline of 0.82%. Brent July contract closed down $0.54 to $66.09 per barrel, a decline of 0.81%. SC2506 closed at 484.6 yuan per barrel, down 2.9 yuan per barrel, a decline of 0.59%. US crude oil inventories increased by 3.5 million barrels to 441.8 million barrels in the week ending May 9 [1]. - **Fuel Oil**: On Wednesday, the main contract of fuel oil on the SHFE, FU2507, rose 1.12% to 3057 yuan per ton; the main contract of low - sulfur fuel oil, LU2507, rose 3.08% to 3647 yuan per ton. The low - sulfur arbitrage cargo volume from Europe to Singapore is expected to decrease in May, but the inventory in Singapore is increasing [3]. - **Asphalt**: On Wednesday, the main contract of asphalt on the SHFE, BU2506, rose 1.24% to 3521 yuan per ton. This week, the total inventory level of domestic refinery asphalt was 30.50%, up 1.12% from last week; the social inventory rate was 35.32%, down 0.41% from last week; the total operating rate of domestic asphalt plants was 35.73%, up 3.62% from last week [3]. - **Polyester**: TA509 closed at 4874 yuan per ton, up 2.61%; EG2509 closed at 4506 yuan per ton, up 3.61%. Some MEG devices were under maintenance, and some polyester devices were restarted or newly put into operation [4]. - **Rubber**: On Wednesday, the main contract of natural rubber, RU2509, rose 240 yuan per ton to 15235 yuan per ton; the main contract of 20 - number rubber, NR, rose 180 yuan per ton to 13035 yuan per ton; the main contract of butadiene rubber, BR, rose 175 yuan per ton to 12380 yuan per ton [6]. - **Methanol**: On Wednesday, the spot price in Taicang was 2505 yuan per ton, the price in Inner Mongolia's northern line was 2137.5 yuan per ton, the CFR China price was between 258 - 262 US dollars per ton, and the CFR Southeast Asia price was between 337 - 342 US dollars per ton [6]. - **Polyolefins**: On Wednesday, the mainstream price of East China拉丝 was between 7200 - 7350 yuan per ton. The profit of oil - based PP was - 87.11 yuan per ton, and the profit of coal - based PP was 1096.2 yuan per ton [8]. - **Polyvinyl Chloride (PVC)**: On Wednesday, the market price of PVC in East China, North China, and South China increased. The supply is at a high - level oscillation, and the demand is relatively stable [8] 3.2 Daily Data Monitoring - The report provides the spot price, futures price, basis, basis rate, and other data of various energy and chemical products on May 14 and May 13, including crude oil, liquefied petroleum gas, asphalt, etc. [9] 3.3 Market News - OPEC reported that the crude oil production of all OPEC + member countries decreased by 106,000 barrels per day in April compared with March. Although eight OPEC + oil - producing countries vowed to start relaxing production cuts, the actual increase in supply was less than expected [11]. - The EIA data showed that as of the week ending May 9, the inventory of the US Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) increased by 528,000 barrels to 399.7 million barrels, reaching the highest level since the week ending October 28, 2022 [11] 3.4 Chart Analysis - **4.1 Main Contract Prices**: The report presents the closing price charts of the main contracts of various energy and chemical products from 2021 to 2025, including crude oil, fuel oil, low - sulfur fuel oil, etc. [13][14][15] - **4.2 Main Contract Basis**: The report shows the basis charts of the main contracts of various energy and chemical products from 2021 to 2025, such as crude oil, fuel oil, low - sulfur fuel oil, etc. [29][34][35] - **4.3 Inter - period Contract Spreads**: The report provides the spread charts of inter - period contracts of various energy and chemical products, including fuel oil, asphalt, PTA, etc. [45][47][50] - **4.4 Inter - variety Spreads**: The report shows the spread and ratio charts between different varieties of energy and chemical products, such as crude oil internal and external spreads, fuel oil high - low sulfur spreads, etc. [61][65][66] - **4.5 Production Profits**: The report presents the production profit charts of some energy and chemical products, such as ethylene - based ethylene glycol cash flow and PP production profit [69]