来源：市场资讯 近期资金在贵金属板块内部出现轮动迹象。在黄金价格企稳、白银维持高位震荡的背景下，兼具金融与 工业属性且前期相对滞涨的铂族金属成为新的关注焦点。世界铂金投资协会（WPIC）此前发布的数据 显示，全球铂金市场预计将连续第三年出现实物短缺。 供应端的结构性紧张是支撑铂族金属价格的重要因素。南非作为全球主要的铂金生产国，其矿山长期面 临电力供应不稳定等运营挑战。在需求侧，除了传统汽车催化剂的稳定需求外，氢能产业的发展被视为 铂金未来需求的新增长点。（市场有风险，投资需谨慎。本文为AI基于第三方数据生成，仅供参考， 不构成个人投资建议。） 12月15日纽约市场交易时段，国际贵金属市场呈现显著分化格局。现货钯金价格大幅上扬，日内涨幅达 到6.00%，收于每盎司1583.16美元。同日，现货白银上涨3.28%，报收于每盎司63.99美元；COMEX白 银期货上涨3.25%，收于每盎司64.020美元。现货铂金上涨2.48%，收于每盎司1790.52美元。相比之 下，黄金价格在当日交易中冲高回落，最终仅录得微幅上涨。 同日，国际原油市场表现疲软。美国WTI原油主力合约收盘下跌1.32%，报每桶56.68美元， ...

美联储降息利好兑现，贵金属市场应声冲高。 现货白银今日一举突破62美元/盎司，再度刷新历史纪录；现货黄金盘中触及4240美元/盎司高位，随后 有所回落。 截至发稿，现货白银报62美元/盎司，涨幅0.35%。现货黄金跌0.27%，报4217.2美元/盎司。 此外，加拿大皇家银行认为未来两年黄金仍有上涨空间，指出央行购金和投资需求从根本上强化了黄金 作为"非主权资产"的价值，最新预期2026年平均金价为4600美元/盎司，到2026年年末金价将达到4800 美元/盎司，2027年平均金价为5100美元/盎司。 美联储如期降息 此次贵金属价格上涨的核心驱动力在于美联储降息。宽松的货币环境显著提升了贵金属的资产配置价 值，叠加市场避险情绪的持续推动，共同促成了黄金、白银价格走高。 当地时间12月10日，美联储宣布再次降息25个基点，将联邦基金利率目标区间下调25个基点到3.50%至 3.75%之间，这是美联储继今年以来的第三次降息。 美联储主席鲍威尔在随后的讲话中提到，当前政策利率已处于"中性利率"区间的上端（即接近既非刺激 也非抑制经济的水平），并暗示明年1月可能暂时保持利率不变。 中金公司指出，鉴于经济与就业仍面 ...

今日市场探底回升，三大指数涨跌不一，深成指、创业板指盘中先后翻红，创业板指此前一度跌超 2%。上证指数收跌0.23%，深证成指收涨0.29%，创业板指收跌0.02%。沪深两市成交额1.78万亿，较上 一个交易日缩量1254亿。盘面上，地产股午后异动上涨，贵金属等板块涨幅居前，CPO、半导体题材午 后走强；银行、电力设备、计算机等板块调整。 【热点1】 据摩根大通首席中国股票策略师表示，预计随着估值正常化以及遏制产能过剩的举措提振关键行业的盈 利能力，MSCI中国指数将进一步反弹。到2026年底，MSCI中国指数将上涨约18%，沪深300指数将上 涨约12%。MSCI香港指数在资本流动和房地产市场情绪最终复苏的支撑下，涨幅可达18%。 近期国内政策积极表态为市场构建支撑，且大盘已经进行较长时间的震荡，有望迎来跨年行情的布局窗 口期。据信达证券统计，2010 年以来，每年年底到第二年春季的跨年阶段，大多会出现一段跨年行 情。行情通常持续 1-2 个月，启动时间集中在 12 月-次年 1 月。从历史经验来看，如果指数处在低位， 则跨年行情启动的时间较早，幅度较大，有正收益的概率较高。但如果指数处在高位，则跨年行情启 ...

（来源：SMM小金属） 2026 SMM 铂族金属供需交易峰会 【时间】2026年1月15日~16日 【地点】浙江·宁波 在全球能源转型加速、高端制造升级的当下，铂族金属（铂、钯、钌、铑、铱）作为"工业维生素"，正迎来供需格局的深度重构。 需求端，混动汽车催化器等战略性领域需求增速受关注，传统化工需求有变化；供应端，全球铂族金属资源集中，地缘政治导致供应链波动，中国部分资 源潜力待释放；政策与竞争方面，美欧清单、国内再生政策及跨境新规重塑市场规则。 值此机会，在美丽的浙江宁波，未泰铂业将作为鸣谢单位参与到SMM举办的2026 SMM铂族金属供需交易峰会，并由亚太区铂族金属首席分析师 曲艺女 士出席，围绕混动汽车触媒用量增加、氢能电极材料需求增长等趋势同大家展开深入探讨与分享。 鸣谢单位及嘉宾介绍 未泰铂业 （Valterra Platinum Limited） 未泰铂业（前身为英美铂业有限公司）是一家南非矿业公司。它是全球领先的铂族金属综合生产商之一，在约翰内斯堡证券交易所和伦敦证券交易所上 市。 该公司拥有世界级、长寿命的矿山组合以及业内最高效的加工资产，负责任地从其位于南非和津巴布韦的业务中开采、冶炼和精 ...

与此同时，铂族金属股票当前按1220美元/盎司篮子价格计价，较现货价格折价超过20%，估值吸引力明显。历史数据显示，贵 金属股票价格与基础商品表现密切相关，黄金股票在过去5年中与金价的拟合优度（R²）超过82%。 分析师指出，如果现货价格保持当前水平，股票价格有望出现重估驱动的上涨空间。这为投资者在当前折价水平进入市场提供 了机会。 投资者情绪分化明显，铂族金属板块潜在反转空间加大 2026年，花旗研究团队对全球贵金属股票持偏积极态度，明确看好铂族金属（PGMs）优于黄金。 据追风交易台，花旗银行在最新研究报告中表示，相比黄金，2026年铂族金属具备更优的风险回报特征。该投行认为，黄金价 格已在每盎司4000美元附近企稳，风险回报相对均衡，而铂金和钯金则具备向上倾斜的潜力。 花旗指出，铂族金属在过去三年中明显落后于黄金价格表现，铂金相对黄金交易价格大幅折价，这在历史上并不常见。该行分 析师认为，工业需求中黄金向铂金的边际替代可能进一步支撑铂金和钯金价格。 报告预测，当前黄金股票价格反映约3200美元/盎司的金价预期，较现货价格折价超过25%，而铂族金属股票价格反映约1220美 元/盎司的一篮子价格，较现货折价 ...

文 |无言 隔夜白银直接"疯"了！内外盘期货价格一起刷新历史纪录，看傻不少做投资的朋友。 纽约COMEX白银主力合约最高冲到57.245美元一盎司，这是这合约上市以来头一回这么高，盘中最多 涨了6个多百分点。 伦敦现货白银也没示弱，涨了5个多点破高点。 国内更不用说，沪银主力合约夜盘最高到13239元一千克，涨幅也有5个多百分点，一样站上历史新高。 这波涨势比黄金猛多了，近十年白银都涨了3倍，今年直接成了贵金属里的"黑马"。 降息预期点燃行情 白银能涨这么疯，最直接的推手就是美联储要降息的消息。 现在芝商所"美联储观察"的数据显示，12月降息25个基点的概率已经超八成。 美联储理事沃勒最近也说，支持12月降息，还说现在的数据没大变化，通胀虽然有点上升，但之后会降 下来，这话一出，机构马上行动。 美国银行直接把2026年的白银、铂金这些金属目标价都上调了。 高盛也跟着凑热闹，把年底白银目标价提到58美元一盎司，说降息的时候白银弹性比黄金大。 本来想觉得机构也就是说说而已，后来发现真不是，之前黄金一直是"老大"，但今年白银涨幅直接超过 黄金。 就是因为大家都赌美联储会放水，白银的金融属性虽然没黄金强，但架不住它弹 ...

Core Viewpoint - The precious metals sector is experiencing significant price increases, with silver and gold reaching historical highs due to rising expectations of a Federal Reserve interest rate cut in December, leading to a decline in the US dollar index and a surge in precious metal prices [1][5]. Precious Metals Market - As of December 1, spot silver has reached a historic high of $57 per ounce, with a year-to-date increase of over 98%. COMEX silver has also surpassed $58 per ounce, while SHFE silver has risen over 6% [1]. - Gold prices are also on the rise, with New York futures gold breaking through $4260 per ounce and spot gold reaching $4228 per ounce [1][2]. Cryptocurrency Market - Bitcoin has dropped to around $87,312, with a decline of over 4% in the day, while Ethereum has fallen to approximately $2,847, down over 5% [2][3]. - In the last 24 hours, a total of 180,325 individuals have been liquidated in the cryptocurrency market, with a total liquidation amount of $537 million [3][4]. Market Sentiment and Economic Indicators - The market is currently pricing in an 80% probability of a 25 basis point rate cut by the Federal Reserve in December, as indicated by CME Federal Funds futures [5]. - The focus is shifting to the upcoming release of the US September Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index report, which is a key inflation indicator for the Federal Reserve [5].

Core Insights - Palladium prices surged from $870 per ounce in early April 2025 to nearly $1,700 by October, marking an increase of over 95%, with a simultaneous rise in gold, silver, and platinum prices during the same period [1] - The global inflationary environment driving this surge is attributed to three main factors: significant budget deficits in multiple countries with limited control measures, core inflation rates exceeding target levels and trending upwards, and the easing of monetary policies by most central banks despite rising inflation [1] Price Correlation and Trends - Palladium typically shows a positive correlation with other precious metals, but this correlation is weaker compared to the relationships among gold and silver, which are primarily driven by jewelry demand [4] - The second strongest correlation among precious metals is between palladium and platinum, reflecting their applications in automotive catalytic converters, with palladium used in gasoline engines and platinum in diesel engines [4][8] Supply Dynamics - Palladium is rarely used in jewelry, with its primary application in the automotive industry, highlighting its price trend independence compared to other metals [10] - The supply of palladium is highly concentrated, particularly in Russia and South Africa, with overall global palladium production showing a declining trend since 2003 [15] - The demand for palladium surged due to stricter automotive emission laws and concerns over supply disruptions from Russia, leading to a parabolic price increase in the late 1990s [15] Market Shifts - Since 2021, palladium prices have returned to historical price ratio ranges relative to gold, silver, and platinum, coinciding with peak palladium usage per vehicle and a surge in electric vehicle sales [18] - In the U.S., electric vehicle sales are projected to account for 11.4% of total vehicle sales in 2024, while in China, the share is expected to approach 50% [20][18] Investment Considerations - Palladium presents research value as a potential diversification tool for investors looking to allocate precious metals, given its limited supply and the inability of central banks to print or digitally create such assets [23]

Market Overview - The A-share market opened higher on November 25, with the ChiNext Index rising by 3% at one point [1] - By midday, the Shanghai Composite Index was at 3880.22 points, up 1.13%, while the Shenzhen Component rose by 2.04% and the ChiNext Index increased by 2.6% [2] Trading Volume and Market Sentiment - The trading volume in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets reached 1.17 trillion yuan, a significant increase of 149.3 billion yuan compared to the previous trading day [3] - A total of 4888 stocks rose, with 77 hitting the daily limit up, while only 458 stocks declined [3] Sector Performance - The technology growth sector showed strong performance, particularly in computing hardware and AI applications, with significant rebounds in communication equipment and electronic components [3] - The optical module (CPO) sector surged by 9%, with multiple stocks hitting the daily limit up, including Dekoli, Changguang Huaxin, and Guangku Technology [7] - Precious metals and education sectors also saw gains, while the aquaculture sector experienced a notable decline [3][18] Notable Stocks - Key stocks in the optical module sector included: - Dekoli: 20% increase, market cap of 22.6 billion yuan, year-to-date increase of 104.7% [8] - Guangku Technology: 20% increase, market cap of 36.6 billion yuan, year-to-date increase of 203.19% [8] - Changguang Huaxin: 20% increase, market cap of 15.7 billion yuan, year-to-date increase of 129.01% [8] - In the precious metals sector, notable performers included: - Huaxi Nonferrous: 9.33% increase, market cap of 25.6 billion yuan, year-to-date increase of 137.62% [14] - Shengda Resources: 6.25% increase, market cap of 16.3 billion yuan, year-to-date increase of 98.44% [14] Hong Kong Market Performance - The Hang Seng Technology Index rose over 1.4%, with notable increases in stocks such as Bilibili (nearly 6% increase) and Xiaomi Group (over 4% increase) [4]

Market Overview - On November 17, major A-share indices collectively declined, with the Shanghai Composite Index falling by 0.46% to 3972 points, the Shenzhen Component Index down by 0.11%, and the ChiNext Index decreasing by 0.2% [1][2] - The trading volume in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets was 1.91 trillion yuan, a decrease of 47.3 billion yuan compared to the previous trading day [1] Sector Performance - The military equipment and military information sectors saw significant gains, with Zhongfu Information hitting the daily limit up of 20% [4] - The Fujian and free trade zone sectors experienced a surge, with multiple stocks including Hongxiang Co., Zhongfutong, and Haixia Innovation also reaching the daily limit up of 20% [6] - The lithium carbonate futures contract hit the daily limit up, boosting the salt lake lithium extraction sector, with Shengxin Lithium Energy and Jinyuan Co. also reaching the daily limit up [8] - The aquaculture sector was active, with stocks like Zhongshui Fishery and Kaichuang International hitting the daily limit up [12] - AI application concepts were prominent, with stocks like BlueFocus and Jiechuang Intelligent seeing significant increases [10] Notable Stocks - Zhongfu Information rose by 20% to 17.82 yuan, while Beifang Changlong increased by 19.57% to 175.77 yuan [5] - Hongxiang Co. and Zhongfutong both saw a 20% increase, reaching 8.69 yuan and 22.54 yuan respectively [7] - Shengxin Lithium Energy increased by 10.01% to 35.93 yuan, while Jinyuan Co. rose by 9.98% to 6.28 yuan [9] Declining Sectors - The precious metals sector declined, with stocks like Zhaojin Gold and Hunan Silver dropping over 3% [14] - The pharmaceutical sector experienced a downturn, with stocks such as Kexing Pharmaceutical and Shutaishen falling over 7% [16] Market Sentiment - Recent geopolitical tensions, including remarks from Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida and military exercises in the Yellow Sea, have heightened uncertainty in the market [4][12] - The U.S. government shutdown resolution has reduced the short-term appeal of gold as a safe-haven asset, contributing to the decline in precious metals [14]