Group 1 - The industrial metal sector increased by 0.43% on September 26, with Jingyi Co., Ltd. leading the gains at 10% [1] - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3828.11, down 0.65%, while the Shenzhen Component Index closed at 13209.0, down 1.76% [1] - Key stocks in the industrial metal sector showed significant price movements, with Jingyi Co., Ltd. closing at 14.85 and a trading volume of 285,000 shares, resulting in a transaction value of 409 million yuan [1] Group 2 - The industrial metal sector experienced a net outflow of 293 million yuan from institutional investors, while retail investors saw a net outflow of 60.1 million yuan [2] - The sector attracted a net inflow of 354 million yuan from speculative funds [2] - Specific stocks like Luoyang Aluminum and Baiyin Nonferrous Metals had notable net inflows from institutional investors, while others like Lida New Materials faced significant outflows from retail investors [3]

Investment Chain - Prices of copper, aluminum, zinc, lead, gold, and silver have risen since September 2025. Fixed asset investment growth rate has decreased to 0.50%, with real estate development investment declining by 12.90% and manufacturing fixed asset investment growth at 5.10% [1] - Infrastructure investment growth rate has also decreased to 5.42%. Prices of tin and nickel have fallen, while the price of thermal coal has slightly increased to 676 RMB per ton [1] Consumption Chain - In August 2025, automobile sales growth rate increased to 16.44%, while home appliance retail sales growth rate decreased to 19.90%. The nominal growth rate of social consumption fell to 3.40% [2] - The cumulative nominal growth rate has decreased by 4.60%, and the sales area of commercial housing has seen a decline of 5.44% [2] Export Chain - In August 2025, export growth rate to the US decreased, while it increased for the EU, Japan, and ASEAN. The overall export growth rate rose to 25.52% [3] - Exports of furniture, refined oil, coke, ships, plastics, and auto parts have seen an increase, while agricultural products, toys, lighting, coal, steel, and aluminum exports have decreased [3] Price Chain - Oil prices have risen to 63.41 USD per barrel as of September 23, 2025. Prices for PVC have increased to 4695 RMB per ton, while prices for MDI have decreased [4] - Pork prices have dropped to 13.71 RMB per kilogram, and the price of domestic urea has also decreased compared to July 2025 [4]

Group 1 - The industrial metal sector increased by 3.55% on September 25, with Jingyi Co., Ltd. leading the gains [1] - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3853.3, down 0.01%, while the Shenzhen Component Index closed at 13445.9, up 0.67% [1] - Key stocks in the industrial metal sector showed significant price increases, with Jingyi Co., Ltd. rising by 10.02% to a closing price of 13.50 [1] Group 2 - The industrial metal sector saw a net inflow of 713 million yuan from main funds, while retail investors experienced a net outflow of 184 million yuan [2] - Major stocks like Luoyang Aluminum and Northern Copper experienced varying levels of net inflow and outflow from different investor categories [3] - The data indicates a mixed sentiment among retail and institutional investors within the industrial metal sector [3]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Overseas Fed's rate - cut will drive a new round of global liquidity easing, opening policy space for China's reserve - requirement ratio and interest - rate cuts. Liquidity easing trading dominates the market, and the risk of Fed's independence may increase the potential long - term rate - cut elasticity. The next Fed meeting is on October 29, and the market fully expects a 25 - bps rate cut. Attention should be paid to US September non - farm and inflation data released in early - mid October. The transmission of Fed's preventive rate cuts to the US real economy takes about 2 - 3 months [6]. - In Q3, China's economic growth slowed down continuously. The funds of existing pro - growth policies are expected to be in place faster. Attention should be paid to the implementation of 500 billion yuan in financial policy tools and new directions in the "15th Five - Year Plan". Investment data from July to August slowed down significantly, especially infrastructure investment. There is a risk that infrastructure funds in Q4 may fall short of expectations. However, the expected GDP growth rates in Q3 and Q4 are 4.9% and 4.7% respectively, and the annual 5% target can still be achieved. If investment and exports continue to decline in September, the probability of the implementation of existing funds and incremental policies in Q4 will increase [6]. - After the domestic and overseas uncertainties are resolved, risk assets may enter a short - term adjustment phase. In the next 1 - 2 quarters, the global loose liquidity and economic recovery expectations driven by fiscal leverage will support risk assets. In the medium - term from Q4 to H1 next year, the expected performance order is equities > commodities > bonds. In Q4, the stock market is expected to be volatile, domestic commodities depend on policies, overseas commodities such as gold and non - ferrous metals are favored, the weak - dollar trend will continue but at a slower pace. The allocation value of bonds increases after the rise of domestic interest rates, and bonds should be allocated equally with equities in Q4. Gold is for long - term strategic allocation, and rate cuts are the main logic in Q4, with the risk of premature trading of recovery expectations [6]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Macro Highlights - **Overseas Macro**: After the Fed's decision, a new round of global liquidity easing is expected, providing policy space for China's rate cuts. The market is dominated by liquidity - easing trading. The risk of the Fed's independence may increase the potential long - term rate - cut elasticity. Attention should be paid to the impact of rate cuts on the US real economy. The next Fed meeting is on October 29, and market expectations for a 25 - bps rate cut are high. Pay attention to US September non - farm and inflation data. Historically, the transmission of Fed's preventive rate cuts to the US real economy takes 2 - 3 months [6]. - **Domestic Macro**: Q3 economic growth slowed. Existing pro - growth policy funds are expected to be in place faster. Pay attention to 500 billion yuan in financial policy tools and new "15th Five - Year Plan" directions. July - August investment data slowed, especially infrastructure investment. There is a risk of insufficient infrastructure funds in Q4. However, the annual 5% GDP growth target can still be achieved. If September investment and exports decline, the probability of policy implementation in Q4 will increase [6]. - **Asset Views**: After uncertainties are resolved, risk assets may adjust in the short - term. In the next 1 - 2 quarters, loose liquidity and economic recovery expectations will support risk assets. In the medium - term from Q4 to H1 next year, equities > commodities > bonds. In Q4, the stock market is volatile, domestic commodities depend on policies, overseas gold and non - ferrous metals are favored, the weak - dollar trend continues but slows. The allocation value of bonds increases, and they should be allocated equally with equities. Gold is for long - term strategic allocation, with rate cuts as the main Q4 logic and the risk of premature recovery - expectation trading [6]. 3.2 Viewpoint Highlights - **Financial**: For stock index futures, use a dumbbell structure to deal with market divergence; for stock index options, continue the hedging and defensive strategy; for treasury bond futures, the stock - bond seesaw may continue in the short - term. All are expected to be volatile [7]. - **Precious Metals**: Driven by dovish expectations, the prices of gold and silver are expected to rise with a volatile trend, as the Fed restarted the rate - cut cycle in September and the risk of its independence has increased [7]. - **Shipping**: For the container shipping route to Europe, as the peak season in Q3 fades and loading is under pressure, it lacks upward momentum and is expected to be volatile. Attention should be paid to the rate of freight - price decline in September and policy dynamics [7]. - **Black Building Materials**: After the "anti - involution" sentiment cools down, the fundamentals still provide support. Products such as steel, iron ore, coke, coking coal, etc. are expected to be volatile, with different influencing factors for each [7]. - **Non - ferrous Metals and New Materials**: Driven by a weak dollar and the fermentation of reverse - invoicing issues, base metals tend to strengthen. Most products are expected to be volatile, with some showing an upward - trending volatility [7]. - **Energy and Chemicals**: The supply - demand situation of crude oil has weakened significantly, and the decline of coking coal has affected the chemical industry. Most chemical products are expected to be volatile, with different market logics and influencing factors [9]. - **Agriculture**: Affected by Argentina's tariff policy changes, oilseeds and meals have been hit hard. Most agricultural products are expected to be volatile, with different influencing factors for each [9].

Group 1 - The oil market is experiencing a significant surge, with WTI crude oil rising 2.5% to surpass $64 per barrel, driven by geopolitical risks and potential supply disruptions [3] - Copper prices have also seen a notable increase, with London copper rising 3.6% to reach $10,336 per ton, influenced by supply interruptions at Freeport's Grasberg mine in Indonesia [3] - In contrast, gold prices have declined by 1.11% to $3,722 per ounce, primarily due to a strengthening dollar and reduced demand for safe-haven assets following strong U.S. new home sales data [3] Group 2 - The current market dynamics reflect two main themes: geopolitical risks driving up prices of strategic resources like oil, and the long-term demand for green metals like copper supported by the energy transition [3] - For medium to long-term investors, it is suggested to focus on commodities with solid fundamental support, such as copper, which is essential for electric vehicles and grid construction [3] - Investors are advised to consider indirect participation through stocks or funds related to these sectors to mitigate the high risks associated with direct futures trading [4]

Group 1: Stock Market Performance - The three major U.S. stock indices closed lower, with the Dow Jones down 0.19% at 46,292.78 points, the S&P 500 down 0.55% at 6,656.92 points, and the Nasdaq down 0.95% at 22,573.47 points, ending a three-day streak of record highs [1] - In Europe, the FTSE 100 index in London closed at 9,223.32 points, down 0.04%, while the CAC 40 index in Paris rose 0.54% to 7,872.02 points, and the DAX index in Frankfurt increased by 0.36% to 23,611.33 points [2] Group 2: Corporate Developments - OpenAI, Oracle, and SoftBank announced plans to build five new data centers across the U.S. as part of the government-supported AI project "Stargate," with three centers to be built by OpenAI and Oracle in Texas and New Mexico, and two centers in collaboration with SoftBank in Ohio and Texas [3] - American Antimony Corporation received a five-year exclusive contract from the U.S. Department of Defense worth up to $245 million to supply antimony metal ingots, leading to a more than 13% increase in the company's stock price [4] - Micron Technology reported a 46% year-over-year increase in adjusted revenue for Q4, reaching $11.32 billion, with an adjusted EPS of $3.03, and projected Q1 revenue between $12.2 billion and $12.8 billion, driven by AI demand and tightening DRAM supply [5] Group 3: Economic Outlook - The OECD raised its global economic growth forecast for 2025 to 3.2%, an increase of 0.3 percentage points from its June prediction, while growth is expected to slow to 2.9% in 2026 [8]

Company Overview - Shanghai Niatong Material Qi Industrial Co., Ltd. has been established with a registered capital of 500,000 RMB [1] - The legal representative of the company is Niao Zhaonian [1] Business Scope - The company operates in various sectors including wholesale and retail of hardware products, sales of metal materials and products, and sales of coatings and chemical products (excluding hazardous chemicals) [1] - Additional activities include sales of daily chemical products, construction materials, and gifts and flowers [1] - The company is also involved in landscaping engineering, urban greening management, and conference and exhibition services [1] Technical and Consulting Services - The company provides a range of technical services including development, consulting, exchange, transfer, and promotion [1] - It offers consulting planning services and information consulting services (excluding licensed information consulting services) [1] Real Estate and Logistics - The company engages in non-residential real estate leasing and general cargo warehousing services (excluding hazardous chemicals) [1] - It also provides loading and unloading services and domestic cargo transportation agency [1] Licensing and Regulatory Compliance - The company is involved in licensed projects such as construction engineering and residential interior decoration [1] - It is required to obtain approval from relevant departments before conducting certain business activities [1]

Core Insights - The "anti-involution" policy has shown a differentiated catalytic effect on the market, with significant excess returns in most industries like batteries relative to the CSI 300 index, while the coal industry has not outperformed the index [2][5][15] - The implementation of the "anti-involution" policy has led to a recovery in factory prices from the supply side, but this has not yet translated to consumer prices at the residential level [2][22] - Since July, prices of polysilicon and thermal coal have stabilized and rebounded significantly, indicating the impact of the "anti-involution" policy on price recovery [2][34] Market Performance - From July 1 to September 19, 2025, the battery sector saw a 41.13% increase, while the coal sector only increased by 7.36%, compared to a 14.38% rise in the CSI 300 index [15][16] - The coal production in August was 390 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 3.2%, while coal prices have stabilized, contributing to the coal sector's recent performance [5][14] Policy Developments - Since June, new "anti-involution" policies have been introduced, emphasizing self-discipline and legal norms to promote capacity optimization, with more noticeable effects in quantifiable areas [6][16] - The effectiveness of these policies may vary, with some sectors lacking quantitative policy support, leading to temporary inefficiencies in supply contraction [6][16] Inflation Data - The Producer Price Index (PPI) has shown signs of recovery, with an August year-on-year decline of 2.9%, a narrowing of 0.7 percentage points from the previous month [22][27] - The Consumer Price Index (CPI) has seen an expanded year-on-year decline, primarily due to a drop in consumer goods prices, with food and beverage prices down by 2.5% [27][31] Industry Price Recovery - Since July, polysilicon prices have shown a significant upward trend, reaching an average price of 50 yuan per kilogram by September 19, 2025 [34][38] - Other materials have experienced short-term price increases followed by a return to a downward trend, indicating a mixed recovery across sectors [34][36] Future Outlook - The market is expected to continue on a "slow bull" trend, driven by a revaluation of Chinese assets, with a focus on sectors benefiting from supply-side improvements and policy expectations [7][45] - Key sectors to watch include metals, transportation, chemicals, lithium batteries, photovoltaic, and pig farming, which are anticipated to benefit from the "anti-involution" policies [7][41][45]

证券之星消息，9月22日工业金属板块较上一交易日上涨0.57%，盛达资源领涨。当日上证指数报收于 3828.58，上涨0.22%。深证成指报收于13157.97，上涨0.67%。工业金属板块个股涨跌见下表： 从资金流向上来看，当日工业金属板块主力资金净流出4.38亿元，游资资金净流入2375.63万元，散户资 金净流入4.14亿元。工业金属板块个股资金流向见下表： | 代码 | 名称 | 主力净流入(元) | 主力净占比 游资净流入 (元) | | 游资净占比 散户净流入 (元) | | 散户净占比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 601899 紧蛋矿业 | | 1.34 Z | 2.74% | -8729.77万 | -1.78% | -4656.36万 | -0.95% | | 000603 盛达资源 | | 1.11亿 | 12.57% | -5517.85万 | -6.25% | -5577.02万 | -6.32% | | 600531 豫光金铅 | | 1.02亿 | 9.45% | -2698.97万 | -2.49% ...

自本月初与日本达成的贸易协议正式生效以来，美国政府正探讨如何利用日本承诺的5500亿美元投资重 振本国制造业。 目前特朗普政府正与日本团队讨论过使用部分5500亿美元帮助在美建厂，但情况依旧变化多端，已有十 余个提案仍在考虑。比如，美国总统特朗普与美商务部部长卢特尼克提出在美建设燃气轮机及仿制药生 产设施、投资新建核电站与能源管道等选项。 当前，美国制造业整体表现疲软。本周最新数据显示，美国9月纽约联储制造业指数从11.9大幅下滑 至-8.7。新订单与发货量显著减少，企业资本支出意愿持续低迷，招聘活动与投资意向仍未复苏，消费 者信心亦未见明显改善。 牛津经济研究院高级经济学家帕莱什（Nico Palesch）此前对第一财经记者表示，当前很难有信心预测 美国制造业或所谓再工业化的实质性回归。 "一方面，制造商作为潜在投资主体，普遍对销售前景持悲观态度，因此不太可能大规模扩建产能。另 一方面，近年来的工厂建设热潮主要得益于拜登政府时期的《通胀削减法案》和《芯片与科学法案》， 而特朗普政府削减了相关补贴，仅靠关税难以支撑广泛的制造业复兴。"帕莱什说。 用关税威胁投资 本月初，特朗普签署行政命令，正式实施美日贸易协议 ...