编者按 辞蛇岁，迎马年。在2026年新春佳节之际，期货日报邀请各大机构研究大咖及相关专家，盘点当前大类资产市场态势，掘金新一年核心配置机会与优质投 资赛道。 2026年，全球金融市场站在新旧周期交替的关键路口——长期债务周期尾部承压，全球秩序与储备资产重构，政策转向发力。多重变量交织下，投资者该 如何布局？ 近日，期货日报记者就马年宏观格局、各类资产走势及差异化配置策略采访了平安期货研究所所长李晨阳，为投资者拆解周期密码、布局方向。 宏观底色：债务尾部与秩序重构 理解马年资产配置，必须先看清当下市场所处的周期位置。李晨阳表示，当前全球处于长期债务周期尾部，政府债务占GDP的比重普遍处于历史高位，传 统货币政策边际效应递减。与此同时，美元主导的国际货币体系正面临多元挑战，国际贸易从全球化走向区域化，关键技术和资源品保护加剧。 "全球秩序与储备资产的重构将是马年金融市场走势的关键背景。"他说。 李晨阳表示，2026年欧美央行仍处于降息周期，且通胀尚未形成明显的上行压力。经济有韧性，货币与财政政策相对友好，这种组合对权益市场和大宗商 品市场形成支撑。 大宗商品市场：下行压力缓解，价格重心或逐步上移 在李晨阳看来，马 ...

（文章来源：21世纪经济报道） 中信证券金属行业首席分析师敖翀在接受南方财经全媒体记者采访时表示，高 PE 买入低 PE卖出是有 色板块投资逻辑。 ...

Core Viewpoints - The current A-share market is characterized as a "confidence bull," driven by improved expectations of national governance and enhanced expectations of technology leading the economy, with the movement of residents' deposits being a result rather than a cause [2][5] - The outlook for A-shares in 2026 is expected to be a "sideways fluctuation with slight strengthening," emphasizing the pursuit of a long-term, slow, and healthy bull market while being cautious of rapid bull markets that may lead to sharp declines [2][6] - The previous "dumbbell" market trend has ended, shifting investment opportunities from "high-growth technology + low-volatility high-dividend" extremes to a focus on mid-cap blue chips, particularly in the cyclical and manufacturing sectors [2][6] Investment Opportunities - Opportunities in cyclical industries are not in the real estate chain but are related to national strategies in three sectors: chemicals, metals, and agriculture [3][7] - AI remains a core focus in technology, with long-term potential, but is currently in a phase of expectation verification, requiring careful stock selection [3][9] - The investment focus for the next 3 to 6 months should be on cyclical and manufacturing sectors, as these align with national strategies and economic transformation [7][8] Market Dynamics - The core drivers of the current market uptrend are improvements in national governance and stronger expectations for technology-led economic growth, with significant achievements in diplomacy, defense, and trade contributing to economic resilience [4][5] - The market is currently at a critical juncture around the 4100-point level, with the need for new drivers to support further upward movement, as previous gains have largely reflected the core drivers [6][12] - The transition from a "dumbbell" market structure to a focus on mid-cap blue chips indicates a shift in risk appetite, with low-volatility, high-dividend stocks losing their appeal [11][12] Future Outlook - The AI sector is expected to experience a period of consolidation and differentiation, with the potential for long-term growth remaining intact despite short-term fluctuations [9][10] - The public fund commission rate reform is prompting a strategic shift in brokerage research departments, moving towards comprehensive service for institutional clients beyond just public funds [17] - The securities research industry is seen as a field of continuous learning and growth, with a call for new talent to join and contribute to the evolving landscape [18]

Core Insights - The current A-share market is characterized as a "confidence bull," driven primarily by improved expectations of national governance and enhanced technological leadership in the economy, with the movement of residents' deposits being a result rather than a cause [2][5][23] - The outlook for 2026 indicates a market pattern of "sideways fluctuations with slight strengthening," emphasizing the pursuit of a long-term, slow, and healthy bull market while cautioning against overly high index targets [2][6][24] - The previous "dumbbell" market trend has ended, shifting investment opportunities from "high-growth technology and low-volatility high-dividend" extremes to a focus on mid-cap blue chips, particularly in the cyclical and manufacturing sectors [2][19][25] Investment Opportunities - Opportunities in cyclical industries are not found in the real estate chain but are linked to national strategies in three key sectors: chemicals, metals, and agriculture [3][20][25] - The AI sector remains a core focus for technology, with long-term potential, but is currently in a phase of expectation verification, requiring careful stock selection [5][28][29] - The manufacturing sector is highlighted as a key area, with China being a manufacturing powerhouse, focusing on equipment across various fields such as machinery, new energy, robotics, military, and semiconductor manufacturing [25][26] Market Dynamics - The market is transitioning from a "two ends" structure to a focus on mid-cap blue chips, with a shift in risk appetite towards more stable investments [30][31] - The core drivers of the market's performance are rooted in changes in expectations rather than liquidity factors, emphasizing the importance of political, economic, and technological developments [31][32] - The upcoming period is expected to see a verification and correction phase for the AI sector, with overall market volatility likely to decrease [28][29] Industry Evolution - The public fund commission rate reform is significantly impacting the securities research industry, prompting a strategic shift towards providing comprehensive services across investment banking, institutional business, and wealth management [35][36] - The future of securities research will involve deeper integration with the core business areas of securities firms, expanding the client base to include enterprises, institutions, and individual clients [35][36]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "看好" (positive outlook), indicating a relative performance stronger than the market benchmark index by over 5% [21]. Core Insights - The global rubidium salt market is entering a new structural expansion cycle, driven by the increasing penetration of perovskite batteries, which may lead to a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 115% in rubidium salt demand over the next five years [1][6]. - The penetration rate of perovskite solar cells is expected to rise significantly, from approximately 1.3% in 2025 to 30% by 2030 in the photovoltaic market, driven by their low cost and high efficiency [2][6]. - The flexible perovskite solar cells are anticipated to find applications in various fields, including building-integrated photovoltaics (BIPV), wearable devices, and vehicle power generation, enhancing industry expansion [3][5]. Summary by Sections Rubidium Salt Demand - The demand for rubidium salt is projected to increase from 37 tons in 2025 to 1696 tons by 2030, with a CAGR of 115%, driven by the growth in perovskite solar cell production [6][7]. - The perovskite battery industry is expected to see a significant increase in installed capacity, from 20 GW in 2026 to 281.7 GW by 2030, leading to a corresponding rise in rubidium salt demand from 146.7 tons to 2065.7 tons, with a CAGR of 94% [7][8]. Perovskite Battery Characteristics - Perovskite solar cells have achieved efficiencies exceeding 25%, significantly higher than other flexible solar cells, and maintain high performance under low light conditions, making them suitable for various applications [4][5]. - The lightweight and flexible nature of perovskite solar panels allows for seamless integration with building materials, positioning them as a mainstream choice in the BIPV sector [5]. Market Growth Projections - The global BIPV market is expected to grow from $16.66 billion in 2026 to $47.02 billion by 2031, with a CAGR of 23.06%, as perovskite solar cells continue to evolve and gain market share [5]. - The demand for perovskite batteries in emerging applications is projected to account for approximately 20% of total demand by 2024, driven by their unique advantages [4].

Group 1 - The three major indices experienced a decline, while individual stocks showed a broad increase, leading to disappointment as it was the last trading day before the Spring Festival [1][3] - Trading volume decreased significantly, with around 120 billion yuan, indicating a lack of market activity as participants prepared for the holiday [3] - The performance of the securities sector was underwhelming, with no support for the market, while sectors like liquor saw a rise [1][3] Group 2 - There is speculation about a potential rebound in the A-share market, as the current position is seen as promising for future gains [5] - The market is characterized by a lack of selling pressure, suggesting that patience may be rewarded post-holiday [5][7] - The overall sentiment is that holding onto stocks through the holiday may be beneficial, as the market could surprise with upward movement after the break [7]

Market Overview - The three major indices opened lower, with the Shanghai Composite Index down 0.44%, the Shenzhen Component down 0.66%, and the ChiNext Index down 0.56% [1] - The FTSE China A50 Index futures fell sharply, dropping over 1.5% during the session [1] Sector Performance - The precious metals, oil and gas, and optical communication sectors experienced the largest declines [3] - The oil and gas extraction and services sector fell by 2.10%, while energy metals dropped by 1.90% [3] - In contrast, sectors related to digital watermarking, intellectual property protection, and data rights saw positive performance, with digital watermarking up by 1.79% [4] Hong Kong Market - The Hong Kong stock market opened lower, with the Hang Seng Index down 1.45% and the Hang Seng Technology Index down 1.59% [5] - Notable declines were observed in tech stocks, with Tencent Music falling over 6% and Baidu Group down over 3% [5] - The newly listed company, Haizhi Technology Group, saw its stock price increase by over 200%, with more than 5000 times subscription during the public offering phase [6]

敖翀进一步分析称，随着流动性的持续释放，中国和全球经济有望在未来6-12个月内出现阶段性回暖，带动市场需求回升。在叠加供给刚性的 情况下，可能使金属价格在调整后重获支撑，并存在再创新高的可能。 除金银外，敖翀认为铜因其兼具流动性驱动与潜在的供需格局改善潜力，中长期更为看好。而对于部分已累计一定涨幅的小金属品种，则需警 惕其因投机需求主导而可能面临的价格波动风险。 记者丨冯紫彤 金珊 编辑丨刘雪莹 2月12日，黄金白银深夜重挫，现货 黄金跌超3%，现货白银日内跌幅一度扩大至11%。 13日开盘，黄金白银延续跌势，现货黄金一度向下跌 破4900美元，最新报4912.5美元/盎司。现货白银跌超0.6%，最新报74.7美元/盎司。 | W | | | 伦敦金现 SPTAUUSDOZ.IDC | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 4912.527 | | 昨结 | 4924.304 | 总量 | | | O | | -11.777 | -0.24% 开盘 | | 4927.743 | 现手 | | | 0 | | 最高价 | 4930 ...

日经225均指数开盘下跌0.8%，报57197.33点，受银行和金属类股拖累。韩国综合股价指数（KOSPI） 开盘下跌0.2%，报5513.71点。 责任编辑：王永生 日经225均指数开盘下跌0.8%，报57197.33点，受银行和金属类股拖累。韩国综合股价指数（KOSPI） 开盘下跌0.2%，报5513.71点。 责任编辑：王永生 ...

Group 1: Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints - The market trend of the non-ferrous sector from the second half of 2025 to early 2026 followed the logic of the leading stock strategy in the stock market, with lithium carbonate as the core leader, followed by gold, platinum-palladium as followers, and finally silver taking over as the new leader [2][7][9] - There is a two-way feedback mechanism between the commodity and stock markets, where the futures market acts as a "weather vane" and the stock market as an "amplifier" [10][12] - When facing a strong commodity trend driven by sentiment and capital, investors should establish a systematic strategy that combines core cognition, operational tools, and mindset management [17][20] Group 3: Summary by Sections 1. Market Summary - Lithium carbonate became the core leader in the early "anti-involution" market due to its unique "leading gene", and its "first negative" feature provided an opportunity for off-market funds to enter [2] - After lithium carbonate entered a high-level shock, some funds flowed to gold as a "catch-up" choice, while platinum-palladium played a "follower" role [2][4] - In early January 2026, silver started an independent upward wave, taking over as the new market leader due to its strong fundamentals and price ratio effect [7] 2. Futures-Stock Linkage Mechanism - The commodity market's profit-making effect can be transmitted to the stock market, and vice versa, with the futures market reacting first and the stock market showing greater sensitivity and price elasticity [10] - The difference in trading rules between futures (T+0) and stocks (T+1) leads to different behaviors, and stock price fluctuations can sometimes be an "early warning signal" for the futures market [11][12] - To select stocks in a futures trend, investors should use data tools to identify market-recognized targets and look for stocks with resonance in technical, capital, and fundamental aspects [15][16] 3. Investment Insights - Accept the new reality that "sentiment is the fundamental factor" and follow the trend instead of trying to predict the top [17] - Use mobile stop-loss and options tools to manage risks and enhance returns [19] - Manage mindset by accepting that it's impossible to sell at the highest point, focusing on realized returns, and adhering to trading discipline [19][20]