Report Industry Investment Rating - Absolute price: Neutral [3] - Option strategy: Hold off [4] Core View - The domestic mine supply remains relatively tight, and smelters have a low willingness to purchase high-silver mines. The market is currently in a situation of weak supply and demand. Since the National Day, downstream demand has been better than expected, leading to a significant reduction in domestic inventories. However, with the overall adjustment of the non-ferrous sector, the lead price may temporarily enter a volatile pattern [3] Summary by Related Catalogs Market News and Important Data Spot Market - On October 30, 2025, the LME lead spot premium was -$35.12/ton. The SMM 1 lead ingot spot price remained unchanged at 17,200 yuan/ton compared to the previous trading day. The SMM Shanghai lead spot premium remained unchanged at 30 yuan/ton, the SMM Guangdong lead spot price remained unchanged at 17,275 yuan/ton, the SMM Henan lead spot price remained unchanged at 17,225 yuan/ton, and the SMM Tianjin lead spot premium remained unchanged at 17,275 yuan/ton. The lead concentrate scrap price difference remained unchanged at -50 yuan/ton, the waste electric vehicle battery price remained unchanged at 10,025 yuan/ton, the waste white shell price remained unchanged at 10,150 yuan/ton, and the waste black shell price remained unchanged at 10,425 yuan/ton [1] Futures Market - On October 30, 2025, the main contract of Shanghai lead opened at 17,360 yuan/ton and closed at 17,350 yuan/ton, down 5 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The trading volume was 39,452 lots, down 6,873 lots from the previous trading day, and the position was 69,287 lots, down 4,231 lots from the previous trading day. The price fluctuated during the day, reaching a high of 17,405 yuan/ton and a low of 17,335 yuan/ton. In the night session, the main contract of Shanghai lead opened at 17,355 yuan/ton and closed at 17,375 yuan/ton, up 25 yuan/ton from the afternoon close [2] Inventory - On October 30, 2025, the total SMM lead ingot inventory was 30,000 tons, down 50 tons from the same period last week. As of October 30, the LME lead inventory was 224,175 tons, down 700 tons from the previous trading day [2]

Group 1: Report Summary - The report provides a daily analysis of the non - ferrous metals market on October 30, 2025, covering copper, alumina, electrolytic aluminum, cast aluminum alloy, zinc, lead, nickel, stainless steel, tin, industrial silicon, polysilicon, and lithium carbonate [1]. - It includes market reviews, important information, logical analyses, and trading strategies for each metal [1][2][3]. Group 2: Market Reviews Copper - The main contract of Shanghai copper 2512 closed at 87,960 yuan/ton, down 0.1%, and the Shanghai copper index increased positions by 2,982 lots to 620,000 lots. LME closed at $11,090/ton, up 0.55%. Shanghai copper spot was at a discount of 55 yuan/ton [1]. Alumina - The alumina 2601 contract decreased by 28 yuan to 2,816 yuan/ton. The northern spot comprehensive price of alumina was 2,840 yuan, up 5 yuan [8]. Electrolytic Aluminum - The Shanghai aluminum 2512 contract decreased by 10 yuan to 21,245 yuan/ton. Spot prices in East China, South China, and Central China were 21,190 yuan (up 30), 21,070 yuan (flat), and 21,050 yuan (up 10) respectively [16]. Cast Aluminum Alloy - The cast aluminum alloy 2512 contract increased by 100 yuan to 20,750 yuan/ton. The spot price of ADC12 aluminum alloy ingots in various regions remained flat [24]. Zinc - The Shanghai zinc 2512 contract fell 0.13% to 22,365 yuan/ton, and the Shanghai zinc index increased positions by 4,449 lots to 214,800 lots. The spot price in Shanghai was 22,300 - 22,425 yuan/ton [31]. Lead - The Shanghai lead 2512 contract fell 0.06% to 17,350 yuan/ton, and the Shanghai lead index decreased positions by 2,688 lots to 119,800 lots. The average price of SMM1 lead was flat at 17,200 yuan/ton [37]. Nickel - The main contract of Shanghai nickel NI2512 decreased by 40 to 120,980 yuan/ton, and the index increased positions by 3,185 lots. The premium of Jinchuan nickel, Russian nickel, and electrowinning nickel changed to varying degrees [42]. Stainless Steel - The main contract of stainless steel SS2512 decreased by 50 to 12,725 yuan/ton, and the index decreased positions by 8,627 lots. The spot price of cold - rolled was 12,550 - 12,850 yuan/ton, and hot - rolled was 12,450 - 12,500 yuan/ton [50]. Tin - The main contract of Shanghai tin 2512 closed at 283,600 yuan/ton, down 2,650 yuan/ton or 0.93%, and the position decreased by 2,185 lots to 72,249 lots. The average spot price of tin ingots in Shanghai was 284,000 yuan/ton, down 1,300 yuan/ton [55]. Industrial Silicon - The main contract of industrial silicon decreased. The spot prices of different grades in various regions remained stable [89]. Polysilicon - The main contract of polysilicon increased. The spot prices of different types of polysilicon and related downstream product prices had minor changes [90]. Lithium Carbonate - The lithium carbonate 2601 contract increased by 980 to 83,400 yuan/ton, and the index increased positions by 36,888 lots. The spot prices of battery - grade and industrial - grade lithium carbonate increased [76]. Group 3: Important Information Macro - level - The Fed cut interest rates by 25 basis points and ended quantitative tightening, but Powell's hawkish remarks on December's interest - rate cut prospects reduced the market's expectation of a December rate cut from 95% to 65% [2]. - The Sino - US economic and trade teams reached a consensus, with the US canceling a 10% "fentanyl tariff" on Chinese goods and suspending a 24% reciprocal tariff for another year [16][24][56]. Industry - level - Chile's state - owned mining company ENAMI obtained environmental approval for a new $1.7 - billion copper smelter [2]. - Some zinc mines in Southwest, North, and Central China have production adjustments such as maintenance and resumption of production [32]. - A large alumina enterprise in North China has two roasting furnaces under maintenance due to heavy pollution weather [9]. - Some electrolytic aluminum plants overseas and in China have production cuts [17]. - Some stainless steel mills plan to cut production to relieve the supply - demand contradiction in the fourth quarter [51]. - Indonesia closed 1,000 illegal mining sites [57]. - The production of some polysilicon plants in Southwest China will be reduced in November [69]. - China will suspend the implementation of lithium - battery and its material export control measures for one year [78]. Group 4: Logical Analysis Copper - Macroscopically, the dollar strengthened due to Powell's hawkish remarks, and the Sino - US leaders' meeting was slightly disappointing. Fundamentally, the supply of copper mines is tight, and the production of electrolytic copper in October is expected to decline. The consumption is weak, and the spot has turned to a discount [3][4]. Alumina - The supply and demand of alumina are still significantly in surplus. The market expects production cuts in the future, which drives the price to rebound slightly at a low level. However, the non - implementation of production cuts and the open import window suppress the rebound [11]. Electrolytic Aluminum - Macroscopically, the market's expectation of a December Fed rate cut has decreased, and the Sino - US economic and trade consensus eases the risk - aversion sentiment. Fundamentally, overseas production cuts intensify the supply - demand tension, and the domestic consumption has resilience [18]. Cast Aluminum Alloy - Macroscopically, the Fed's hawkish remarks increase uncertainty, but the Sino - US trade negotiation is positive. Fundamentally, the supply of scrap aluminum is tight, the supply of the regenerative aluminum alloy industry is shrinking, and the demand is resilient, supporting the price [26]. Zinc - Domestically, the winter storage of smelters has increased, the processing fees have decreased, and some smelters may cut production in November. The consumption is expected to weaken. Overseas, the inventory is relatively low, and the LME zinc price is strong. The domestic export window is open [33]. Lead - Some lead - storage enterprises' orders have improved, but they have reduced production due to high lead prices. The supply side may increase production as the price of lead scrap has not risen significantly. The lead price may decline [39]. Nickel - The Fed's interest - rate cut and hawkish remarks have an impact. The LME nickel inventory is slowly increasing, and the supply - demand is loose. The price is supported by cost, and it will fluctuate widely [45]. Stainless Steel - The terminal demand in October is not optimistic, and it is the end of the peak season. The supply side has production cuts, the cost support is not strong, and the price has encountered resistance [51]. Tin - The Sino - US leaders' meeting result is slightly disappointing. The supply of tin mines is still tight, and the production of smelters in September decreased. The demand is slowly recovering, and the downstream procurement is cautious [57]. Industrial Silicon - The start - up rate of silicon plants in Northwest China is at a high level, and those in Southwest China will stop production at the end of the month. The demand for organic silicon and aluminum alloy is stable, and the production of polysilicon will be reduced in November. There may be inventory reduction [62]. Polysilicon - The production in Southwest China will be reduced in November. The demand is expected to be poor, but there is still resilience. The market will be in a tight - balance state in November. The old warehouse receipts' negative impact on the market is weakening [69]. Lithium Carbonate - The weekly production has decreased, and the inventory is being reduced. The fundamentals are healthy, attracting bullish funds. The price is expected to continue rising [78]. Group 5: Trading Strategies Copper - Unilateral: The medium - term upward trend continues. Adopt a strategy of buying on dips, but be cautious of short - term pullbacks when chasing high [5]. - Arbitrage: Hold cross - market positive arbitrage and arrange cross - period positive arbitrage after the domestic inventory starts to decline [6]. - Options: Wait and see [7]. Alumina - Unilateral: There is an expectation of further production cuts in November. The price will bottom out in the short term [12]. - Arbitrage: Wait and see [13]. - Options: Wait and see [13]. Electrolytic Aluminum - Unilateral: The aluminum price is expected to fluctuate upward after the market sentiment stabilizes [19]. - Arbitrage: Wait and see [20]. - Options: Wait and see [21]. Cast Aluminum Alloy - Unilateral: The aluminum alloy price will follow the aluminum price to adjust due to macro - sentiment and then maintain a strong trend after stabilizing [27]. - Arbitrage: Consider a long - AD short - AL arbitrage [27]. - Options: Wait and see [27]. Zinc - Unilateral: Buy on dips. Pay attention to the export volume and the commissioning of new smelters in the North [34]. - Arbitrage: Advance the operation of buying SHFE and selling LME according to the export situation [34]. - Options: Wait and see [34]. Lead - Unilateral: Partially close profitable short positions. If the resumption and increase of production of regenerative lead smelters accelerate, the lead price may fall further [40]. - Arbitrage: Wait and see [40]. - Options: Exit the position by taking profit on selling out - of - the - money call options [40]. Nickel - Unilateral: Fluctuate widely [46]. - Arbitrage: Wait and see [47]. - Options: Sell a wide - straddle combination of the 2512 contract [48]. Stainless Steel - Unilateral: Recommend short - selling on rebounds [52]. - Arbitrage: Wait and see [53]. Tin - Unilateral: Fluctuate at a high level. Pay attention to the Sino - US trade relationship [58]. - Options: Wait and see [59]. Industrial Silicon - Unilateral: Hold short - term long positions and exit near the previous high [63]. - Arbitrage: None [63]. - Options: Sell out - of - the - money put options [63]. Polysilicon - Unilateral: Partially reduce long positions to take profit and buy on dips later [72]. - Arbitrage: Reverse arbitrage on far - month contracts [73]. - Options: Hold long call options [74]. Lithium Carbonate - Unilateral: Buy on dips [80]. - Arbitrage: Wait and see [80]. - Options: Sell out - of - the - money put options [80].

Group 1: Investment Rating - Absolute price: Neutral [3] - Option strategy: On hold [4] Group 2: Core View - The domestic lead ore supply remains relatively tight, but smelters have low willingness to purchase high-silver ores. The market is in a situation of weak supply and demand. Since the National Day, downstream demand has been better than expected, leading to significant inventory reduction in China. However, with the overall adjustment of the non-ferrous metals sector, lead prices may temporarily enter a volatile pattern [3] Group 3: Market News and Key Data Spot - On October 29, 2025, the LME lead spot premium was -$35.54/ton. The SMM 1 lead ingot spot price decreased by 25 yuan/ton to 17,200 yuan/ton compared to the previous trading day. The SMM Shanghai lead spot premium remained unchanged at 20.00 yuan/ton, the SMM Guangdong lead spot price decreased by 25 yuan/ton to 17,275 yuan/ton, the SMM Henan lead spot price decreased by 75 yuan/ton to 17,225 yuan/ton, and the SMM Tianjin lead spot premium decreased by 75 yuan/ton to 17,275 yuan/ton. The lead concentrate scrap price difference remained unchanged at -50 yuan/ton, the price of waste electric vehicle batteries remained unchanged at 10,025 yuan/ton, the price of waste white shells remained unchanged at 10,150 yuan/ton, and the price of waste black shells remained unchanged at 10,425 yuan/ton [1] Futures - On October 29, 2025, the main SHFE lead contract opened at 17,315 yuan/ton and closed at 17,355 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous trading day. The trading volume was 46,325 lots, a decrease of 10,850 lots from the previous trading day, and the open interest was 73,518 lots, a decrease of 4,117 lots from the previous trading day. The intraday price fluctuated, with a high of 17,410 yuan/ton and a low of 17,315 yuan/ton. In the night session, the main SHFE lead contract opened at 17,360 yuan/ton and closed at 17,360 yuan/ton, up 5 yuan/ton from the afternoon close. According to SMM, the SMM 1 lead price decreased by 25 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. In Henan, holders quoted at a discount of 110 - 150 yuan/ton to the SHFE lead 2512 contract for ex-factory sales. In Hunan, some smelters with low inventories raised prices for sales, quoting at a premium of 20 - 50 yuan/ton to the SMM 1 lead for ex-factory sales, while traders actively lowered premiums for sales, quoting at a premium of 0 - 40 yuan/ton to the SMM 1 lead. Downstream battery enterprises maintained rigid demand procurement, and the trading of scattered goods remained light [2] Inventory - On October 29, 2025, the total SMM lead ingot inventory was 30,000 tons, a decrease of 1,600 tons compared to the same period last week. As of November 28, the LME lead inventory was 224,875 tons, a decrease of 4,800 tons from the previous trading day [2]

Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. Core Views of the Report - The stock index futures are expected to continue their upward trend with fluctuations, while the central bank's restart of treasury bond trading has sparked enthusiasm for going long on treasury bond futures [5][18][21]. - In the agricultural products market, the prices of some products such as soybeans and sugar are affected by factors like trade relations and supply - demand changes, showing different trends [7][26][28]. - The steel market is showing a trend of continued strengthening, while the double - coking market has support at the bottom but faces resistance in upward movement [9][59][61]. - The precious metals market has broken through important support levels due to the easing of risk factors, and is expected to continue to adjust [11][69][71]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Financial Derivatives - **Stock Index Futures**: On Monday, the stock index opened higher and closed higher. All major indices and futures contracts rose. The market is expected to continue its upward trend with fluctuations. Trading strategies include going long on dips, conducting IM/IC 2512 long + ETF short cash - and - carry arbitrage, and buying call options on the Sci - tech Innovation 50, Science and Technology Innovation Board 50, and ChiNext at low prices [18][19][20]. - **Treasury Bond Futures**: On Monday, treasury bond futures opened lower but closed higher. The central bank's restart of treasury bond trading is expected to continue the "moderately loose" monetary policy. It is recommended to maintain a long - biased mindset for unilateral trading, and consider flattening the yield curve or shorting the inter - delivery spread for arbitrage [21][22][24]. Agricultural Products - **Soybean Meal**: The improvement in the macro - environment has driven up the US soybean price, but the international soybean supply pressure is still high. Domestic soybean meal has also risen, but the upward space is limited. It is recommended to wait and see for both unilateral and arbitrage trading, and use the strategy of selling wide - straddle options [26][27][28]. - **Sugar**: Internationally, the sugar market is bearish due to increased production in major producing areas. In China, the suspension of pre - mixed powder and syrup imports has a short - term bullish impact. The trading strategy includes short - term oscillation for unilateral trading, shorting US raw sugar and going long on domestic Zhengzhou sugar for arbitrage, and waiting and seeing for options [28][29][31]. - **Oilseeds and Oils**: The short - term disk is expected to oscillate slightly weakly. It is recommended to wait and see for unilateral trading and wait for the price to stabilize on dips before going long. For arbitrage and options, it is recommended to wait and see [32][33][35]. - **Corn/Corn Starch**: The US corn futures rebounded, but the production is expected to be high. In China, the supply of corn is increasing, and the spot price is falling. It is recommended to go long on the 12 - month US corn on dips, wait and see for the 01 - month contract, and wait for dips to go long on the 05 - and 07 - month contracts [36][37][38]. - **Hogs**: The short - term slaughter pressure has eased, but the overall supply is still high. It is recommended to wait and see for unilateral and arbitrage trading, and use the strategy of selling wide - straddle options [39][40][41]. - **Peanuts**: The peanut price is in short - term bottom - range oscillation. It is recommended to go long on the 01 - and 05 - month contracts on dips, wait and see for arbitrage, and sell the pk601 - P - 7600 option [41][42][43]. - **Eggs**: The supply of laying hens is still high, and the demand is average. It is recommended to close out previous short positions and wait and see for unilateral trading, and wait and see for arbitrage and options [43][44][47]. - **Apples**: The quality of new - season apples is poor, but the purchase enthusiasm of merchants is high. The price is expected to oscillate slightly strongly in the short term. It is recommended to go long on dips for unilateral trading, and wait and see for arbitrage and options [48][49][51]. - **Cotton - Cotton Yarn**: The acquisition is at its peak, and the price is expected to oscillate slightly strongly. It is recommended to expect the US cotton to oscillate, and the Zhengzhou cotton to oscillate slightly strongly in the short term. Wait and see for arbitrage and options [53][54][57]. Ferrous Metals - **Steel**: The steel price is expected to continue to strengthen. It is recommended to maintain a long - biased mindset for unilateral trading, continue to hold the long - spread position of hot - rolled coil and rebar for arbitrage, and wait and see for options [59][60][61]. - **Double - Coking**: The double - coking market has support at the bottom but faces resistance in upward movement. It is recommended to gradually take profits on long positions and look for opportunities to go long on dips for unilateral trading, and wait and see for arbitrage and options [61][62][64]. - **Iron Ore**: The iron ore price is expected to face pressure at high levels. It is recommended to wait and see for both unilateral and arbitrage trading, and for options [64][65][66]. - **Ferroalloys**: The macro - environment has driven a rebound, but the supply - demand pressure still exists. It is recommended to use the strategy of shorting after the low - valuation repair for unilateral trading, wait and see for arbitrage, and sell out - of - the - money straddle option combinations [66][67][68]. Non - Ferrous Metals - **Precious Metals**: The precious metals market has broken through important support levels due to the easing of risk factors. It is recommended that conservative investors wait and see, while aggressive investors can conduct short - term intraday trading [69][70][71]. - **Copper**: The macro - environment has improved, and the supply is relatively tight. It is recommended to go long on dips for unilateral trading, continue to hold the long - position in cross - market arbitrage, and wait and see for options [73][74][76]. - **Alumina**: There is an expectation of production cuts on the supply side, and the price is expected to rebound slightly. It is recommended to go long on the short - term price rebound for unilateral trading, and wait and see for arbitrage and options [77][78][80]. - **Electrolytic Aluminum**: The macro - environment and fundamentals are in resonance, and the price is expected to strengthen in the medium term. It is recommended to expect the price to strengthen with fluctuations for unilateral trading, and wait and see for arbitrage and options [81][82][83]. - **Cast Aluminum Alloy**: The global trade situation has eased, and the price is in an upward - oscillation channel. It is recommended to expect the price to strengthen with fluctuations for unilateral trading, and wait and see for arbitrage and options [84][85][86]. - **Zinc**: It is recommended to go long on dips for unilateral trading, consider long - SHFE and short - LME arbitrage according to export conditions, and sell out - of - the - money put options [87][88][93]. - **Lead**: The lead price may fall from high levels. It is recommended to go short on rallies for unilateral trading, wait and see for arbitrage, and sell out - of - the - money call options [93][94][95]. - **Nickel**: The nickel price is expected to maintain range - bound trading due to macro - benefits and loose supply - demand. No specific trading strategies are provided [98].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No specific industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In the short - to - medium term, against the backdrop of tight scrap and ore supplies, there is a high risk of contraction in the smelting sector, and the supply - demand balance of base metals is expected to tighten, which supports base metal prices. However, weak demand limits the upside potential of prices. In the long term, there are still expectations of potential incremental stimulus policies in China, and supply disruptions in copper, aluminum, and tin remain, so the prices of copper, aluminum, and tin are expected to rise [3]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1行情观点 3.1.1 Copper - **Viewpoint**: After the release of the communiqué of the Fourth Plenary Session of the 20th Central Committee, copper prices are showing a strong trend. - **Logic**: Macroeconomic sentiment has warmed up with the release of the communiqué and the resumption of Sino - US trade negotiations. On the supply - demand side, copper ore supply disruptions are increasing, and the cost and difficulty of scrap copper recycling have risen, leading to a decline in electrolytic copper production. Although the peak demand season has arrived, high prices have suppressed demand to some extent. - **Outlook**: Copper supply constraints remain, and considering the improved macro - sentiment, copper prices are expected to be oscillating with an upward bias [8]. 3.1.2 Alumina - **Viewpoint**: As the operating capacity of smelters declines, alumina prices are oscillating. - **Logic**: High - cost production capacity has reduced output, but the reduction is insufficient, and China still maintains a strong inventory build - up trend. Ore prices have shown a slight decline, so there is still pressure on the upside of the disk price. - **Outlook**: Alumina is expected to oscillate in the short term. It is recommended to wait and see or conduct short - term trading, and pay attention to the potential increase in volatility [10]. 3.1.3 Aluminum - **Viewpoint**: The risk of Mozal's shutdown has intensified, and aluminum prices have slightly rebounded. - **Logic**: The macro - tone at home and abroad is positive. On the supply side, some replacement capacities are being put into production, and the operating capacity and utilization rate are at a high level. On the demand side, orders in the peak season have improved marginally, and social inventories have started to decline. The current copper - aluminum price ratio is above 4.0, and the valuation of aluminum is relatively low. - **Outlook**: In the short term, aluminum prices are expected to be oscillating with an upward bias. In the medium term, the supply increase is limited, and demand remains resilient, so the center of aluminum prices is expected to rise [11]. 3.1.4 Aluminum Alloy - **Viewpoint**: With strong cost support, the disk is oscillating upward. - **Logic**: The tight supply of scrap aluminum is difficult to change in the short term, providing strong cost support. Although some enterprises have slightly reduced production due to unclear policies and weak demand, the overall reduction is not large. Demand has improved marginally, and social inventories and warehouse receipts have continued to rise. - **Outlook**: In the short term, prices are expected to oscillate within a range. In the medium term, due to unclear policy implementation and potential raw material disruptions, prices are expected to continue to oscillate [12]. 3.1.5 Zinc - **Viewpoint**: With optimistic macro - expectations and an open export window, pay attention to short - selling opportunities at high zinc prices. - **Logic**: Macroeconomic sentiment is optimistic. In the short term, zinc ore supply has become looser, and smelters' profitability is good, so their production willingness is strong. Domestic consumption is in the transition period between peak and off - peak seasons, and demand expectations are average. The overall fundamentals are in surplus, but the "soft squeeze" of LME zinc has not ended. - **Outlook**: In October, zinc ingot production will remain high, and demand recovery is limited, so inventories may continue to accumulate. Zinc prices are expected to oscillate [14]. 3.1.6 Lead - **Viewpoint**: Due to supply disruptions in recycled lead and low social inventories, lead prices have risen significantly. - **Logic**: On the spot side, the spot discount has narrowed slightly, and the price difference between primary and recycled lead has increased. On the supply side, the profitability of recycled lead smelters has improved, and production has increased slightly. On the demand side, the operating rate of lead - acid battery factories has recovered, and demand remains high. - **Outlook**: After the Fed's interest rate cut, the US dollar may still decline. After the holidays, lead supply growth has been slightly lower than expected, and demand is in the peak season. Lead prices are expected to be oscillating with an upward bias [15]. 3.1.7 Nickel - **Viewpoint**: With LME nickel inventories exceeding 250,000 tons, nickel prices are oscillating widely. - **Logic**: Market sentiment still dominates the disk. The industrial fundamentals are weakening marginally. Ore supply is relatively loose, and the reality of excess electrolytic nickel is serious, with significant inventory accumulation. - **Outlook**: In the short term, nickel prices are expected to oscillate widely [18]. 3.1.8 Stainless Steel - **Viewpoint**: With low warehouse receipts, the stainless - steel disk is rising. - **Logic**: Nickel - iron prices have weakened, and chromium prices are relatively stable. Stainless - steel production has increased in September, but the sustainability of demand in the "Golden September and Silver October" peak season needs to be monitored. Social inventories have decreased slightly, and warehouse receipts have continued to decline. - **Outlook**: Downstream demand is slightly lower than expected, and cost support has a certain boosting effect on steel prices. Stainless - steel prices are expected to oscillate within a range in the short term [22]. 3.1.9 Tin - **Viewpoint**: With supply constraints remaining, tin prices are oscillating. - **Logic**: There have been continuous supply disruptions in tin. Indonesia has taken measures to restrict supply, and the resumption of production in the Wa State's Manxiang mining area is slow. The domestic tin ore supply is tight, and the processing fee for tin concentrate remains low. - **Outlook**: With tight supply at the mine end, tin prices are expected to oscillate [23]. 3.2行情监测 - **Comprehensive Index**: The commodity index increased by 0.70% to 2250.50, the commodity 20 index increased by 0.58% to 2546.54, the industrial products index increased by 1.12% to 2229.03, and the PPI commodity index increased by 0.86% to 1342.15 [148]. - **Plate Index**: The non - ferrous metals index on October 23, 2025, increased by 0.70% on the day, 1.60% in the past 5 days, 3.15% in the past month, and 7.08% since the beginning of the year [149].

Core Viewpoint - The lead market is experiencing a significant price increase due to limited supply and low social inventory, despite concerns about downstream demand as temperatures drop [1] Supply and Demand Dynamics - Lead prices on the Shanghai Futures Exchange rose sharply, with the main contract increasing by over 3% at one point and closing with a gain of 2.68% [1] - Supply constraints are exacerbated by new regulations in Hebei, restricting the entry of certain vehicles into factories, impacting the transportation of raw materials and finished products [1] - The production of recycled lead is expected to recover as companies resume operations, but current supply remains limited, with social inventory still at low levels [1] Market Sentiment and Price Forecast - According to Guotou Futures, there is a coexistence of reduced primary lead production and insufficient recovery in recycled lead production, leading to a strong performance in Shanghai lead prices [1] - Market concerns about weakening consumption due to colder weather and expectations of overseas lead supply additions are creating pressure on the rebound of lead prices, resulting in increased market divergence [1] - The forecast for lead prices is expected to oscillate within the range of 16,500 to 17,300 yuan per ton [1]

Group 1: Report Summary - Report industry investment ratings: Not provided - Core view: The report analyzes the market conditions of various non - ferrous metals including copper, aluminum, zinc, lead, nickel, etc., and provides corresponding trading strategies based on macro - economic factors, supply - demand fundamentals, and relevant news events [4][7][12] Group 2: Copper Market Review - Futures: The Shanghai Copper 2511 contract closed at 85,800 yuan/ton, up 0.11%, and the Shanghai Copper Index increased positions by 5,047 lots to 556,300 lots [2] - Spot: The spot premium of Shanghai electrolytic copper rebounded to 90 yuan/ton, up 40 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The Guangdong inventory increased for 5 consecutive days, and the consumption was poor, with a premium of 40 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan/ton. The North China spot market remained sluggish, with a discount of 150 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan/ton [2] Important Information - Freeport McMoRan plans to exit the benchmark pricing system for global copper ore sales to protect smelter profitability due to the historically low benchmark TC/RC fees in 2025 [3] Logic Analysis - Macro: The US employment market cooled, and Powell hinted at a possible rate cut and an end to balance - sheet reduction. Fundamentals: Multiple mines reduced production, and the supply of copper mines tightened. The consumption was weak, but the purchase demand might increase after price corrections [4] Trading Strategy - Unilateral: Adopt a "buy on dips" strategy and be cautious about chasing high prices. - Arbitrage: Hold inter - market positive spreads and arrange inter - period positive spreads after domestic inventory starts to decline. - Options: Wait and see [7] Group 3: Alumina Market Review - Futures: The Alumina 2601 contract decreased by 10 yuan to 2,797 yuan/ton. - Spot: The spot prices in various regions showed a downward trend [9] Relevant Information - Some aluminum plants made procurement, and the production of some alumina enterprises was affected by factors such as ore shortage and strikes [10][11] Logic Analysis - The static surplus of alumina was absorbed by downstream stockpiling, but the surplus trend remained. The price was expected to be volatile and weak before the supply - demand pattern improved [12] Trading Strategy - Unilateral: The price is expected to be weak. - Arbitrage: Wait and see. - Options: Wait and see [15][16] Group 4: Electrolytic Aluminum Market Review - Futures: The Shanghai Aluminum 2511 contract decreased by 20 yuan to 20,910 yuan/ton. - Spot: The spot prices in different regions showed different trends [18] Relevant Information - Trump's tariff policy upgrade and Powell's speech on the economy and monetary policy, and the export and inventory data of electrolytic aluminum [18] Trading Logic - The impact of the US tariff policy upgrade on aluminum prices was expected to be less severe than in April. The medium - term upward trend of aluminum prices remained unchanged, and the consumption showed resilience [19] Trading Strategy - Unilateral: The short - term decline due to panic does not change the medium - term upward trend. Wait and see in the short term. - Arbitrage: Wait and see. - Options: Wait and see [19] Group 5: Cast Aluminum Alloy Market Review - Futures: The Cast Aluminum Alloy 2511 contract decreased by 15 yuan to 20,365 yuan/ton. - Spot: The spot prices in various regions were mostly stable [21] Relevant Information - Trump's tariff policy upgrade and the inventory data of recycled aluminum alloy ingots [21] Trading Logic - The impact of the tariff policy upgrade on aluminum - based products was expected to be less severe. The global aluminum supply - demand remained in a shortage pattern after re - balancing, and the fundamentals provided some support [23] Trading Strategy - Unilateral: The short - term decline due to panic does not affect the medium - term upward trend. The price is expected to be volatile in the short term. - Arbitrage: Wait and see. - Options: Wait and see [24] Group 6: Zinc Market Review - Futures: The Shanghai Zinc 2511 decreased by 1.17% to 22,015 yuan/ton, and the position of the Shanghai Zinc Index increased by 675 lots to 210,700 lots. - Spot: The trading volume did not improve significantly [26] Relevant Information - The domestic zinc ingot inventory increased, and the international organization predicted the supply - demand situation of refined zinc [28] Logic Analysis - The supply in China increased significantly, while the consumption did not improve. The price of LME zinc was strong. The pattern of strong overseas and weak domestic was expected to continue [28] Trading Strategy - Unilateral: The price may fluctuate more violently. Short positions can be arranged at high prices. - Arbitrage: Wait and see. - Options: Wait and see [27][31] Group 7: Lead Market Review - Futures: The Shanghai Lead 2511 increased by 0.15% to 17,110 yuan/ton, and the position of the Shanghai Lead Index increased by 886 lots to 84,500 lots. - Spot: The downstream demand was for rigid replenishment, and the trading was average [30] Relevant Information - The domestic lead ingot inventory decreased, and the international organization predicted the supply - demand situation of lead [31] Logic Analysis - The current supply - demand of lead was weak, but the supply was weaker. The price was expected to be strong in the short term, but there was a risk of a decline in the future [33] Trading Strategy - Unilateral: The price may decline from high levels. - Arbitrage: Wait and see. - Options: Sell out - of - the - money call options [34] Group 8: Nickel Market Review - Futures: The main contract of Shanghai Nickel NI2511 increased by 100 to 121,180 yuan/ton, and the position of the index increased by 5,896 lots. - Spot: The premiums of different types of nickel remained unchanged [36] Relevant Information - A fire occurred in an Indonesian nickel processing plant, and the Indonesian nickel - iron market was under pressure [37] Logic Analysis - The fire had no impact on production. The supply - demand of refined nickel was basically flat, and the LME nickel inventory increased. The nickel price was under pressure [37] Trading Strategy - Unilateral: The price is expected to be weak and volatile. - Arbitrage: Wait and see. - Options: Sell a wide - straddle combination of the 2511 contract [38][39][41] Group 9: Stainless Steel Market Review - Futures: The main contract of stainless steel SS2512 decreased by 30 to 12,560 yuan/ton, and the position of the index increased by 174 lots. - Spot: The spot prices of cold - rolled and hot - rolled products were reported [43] Important Information - Thailand imposed anti - dumping duties on stainless steel cold - rolled products from Vietnam [44] Logic Analysis - The production of stainless steel increased in October, but the demand was restricted. The price was under pressure, and attention should be paid to inventory digestion and production plans [44] Trading Strategy - Unilateral: The price is expected to be weak and volatile. - Arbitrage: Wait and see [45][46] Group 10: Tin Market Review - Futures: The main contract of Shanghai Tin 2511 closed at 281,710 yuan/ton, decreased by 430 yuan/ton or 0.15%, and the position increased by 632 lots to 65,742 lots. - Spot: The spot price decreased, and the trading was average [48] Relevant Information - The global semiconductor sales increased, and the production of domestic tin smelters changed [49][50] Logic Analysis - The Fed hinted at a rate cut, the supply of tin mines was still tight, and the demand was slowly recovering. Attention should be paid to Myanmar's resumption of production and electronic consumption [52] Trading Strategy - Unilateral: The price is expected to be high and volatile in the short term. Pay attention to Myanmar's resumption of production. - Options: Wait and see [53][54] Group 11: Industrial Silicon Important Information - A South Korean company will acquire a stake in a Vietnamese silicon wafer factory [55] Logic Analysis - The production of industrial silicon was affected by power plant maintenance and factory shutdowns. The demand was strong in the short term, but there might be a slight surplus in November. The price was expected to be range - bound [57] Strategy Suggestion - Unilateral: Avoid long positions. - Arbitrage: None. - Options: None [58][59][60] Group 12: Polysilicon Important Information - The magazine emphasized the importance of stabilizing market expectations and introducing favorable policies [62] Logic Analysis - The production of polysilicon increased in October, but the demand weakened. The price was expected to break through new highs in the medium - to - long term, and long positions could be held in the short term [63] Strategy Suggestion - Unilateral: Hold long positions. - Arbitrage: Hold the reverse spread of the 2511 and 2512 contracts with a target range of (- 3500, - 3300). - Options: Adjust the previous double - buying strategy, stop - profit and exit the put option, and continue to hold the call option [64][65][66] Group 13: Lithium Carbonate Market Review - Futures: The Lithium Carbonate 2511 contract decreased by 220 to 72,940 yuan/ton, and the position of the index increased by 7,780 lots, and the Guangzhou Futures Exchange warehouse receipts decreased by 2,104 to 33,076 tons. - Spot: The spot prices remained unchanged [69] Important Information - Tesla's factory increased production, and China's new - energy vehicle sales increased [70] Logic Analysis - The supply of lithium carbonate was uncertain, and the demand was strong. The price was expected to be strong and volatile in the current range [71] Trading Strategy - Unilateral: Treat the price as strong and volatile. - Arbitrage: Wait and see. - Options: Sell a wide - straddle combination of the 2601 contract [72]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - The US officially imposed restrictions such as port fees on China's maritime, logistics, and shipbuilding sectors. China strongly opposed this and announced counter - measures against 5 US - related subsidiaries of Hanwha Ocean Co., Ltd., highlighting China's determination to counter in key areas [7]. - For LPG, the price of domestic propane at the cost of arrival (tax - included) is basically below 4,000 yuan/ton. The demand has increased significantly, but it has not rebounded under speculative demand. The short - term pattern of strong domestic and weak foreign is clear, which is bullish for the long - short spread on the futures market, but the impact of Sino - US trade disputes and crude oil price trends should be noted [9][10]. - For cotton, the short - term trend is stable. Before mid - November, attention should be paid to the development of international economic and trade situations. The short - term trend of cotton futures is expected to be weakly volatile [11]. - For the container shipping index (European line), it will be volatile in the short term. Attention should be paid to the change in shipping capacity in November. The recent sharp rise was affected by China's counter - measures against Hanwha Ocean, but it has no substantial impact on the European line. The fundamentals show that most shipping companies are expected to be fully loaded in week 43, and the no - show rate needs further observation [12]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Metal Products - **Gold**: Continues to reach new highs. The Fed Chairman Powell hinted at another interest rate cut and that the balance - sheet reduction is nearing the end, which is favorable for gold prices [21]. - **Silver**: The contradiction in the spot market has eased, and the price has risen and then fallen [21]. - **Copper**: The market is cautious, and the price is volatile. The production of Codelco in Chile has decreased, and China's copper imports in September have shown different trends [25][27]. - **Zinc**: The trend is weakly volatile. The Fed's attitude towards interest rates affects the market, and inventory and price data show certain changes [28]. - **Lead**: The inventory has increased, and the price is under pressure. The Fed's interest - rate policy also has an impact on the lead market [31]. - **Tin**: Attention should be paid to the macro - impact. The price of tin has declined, and inventory and price differences have changed [34]. - **Aluminum**: Ranges within a certain interval. Alumina's price center moves down, and cast aluminum alloy follows the trend of electrolytic aluminum. Market data such as inventory and price differences have changed [38]. - **Nickel**: The macro - sentiment has turned bearish, and the nickel price is oscillating at a low level. Stainless steel is under pressure from both the macro - environment and the actual situation, but the cost limits the downward space [41]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: The demand is improving, and the warehouse receipts are being cleared. The short - term trend is relatively strong [44]. - **Industrial Silicon**: The supply - demand pattern is weak [47]. - **Polysilicon**: Meetings are being held this week, and the futures market is expected to rise [48]. 3.2 Building Materials and Energy - **Iron Ore**: The price fluctuates widely. Market data such as inventory and price differences have changed, and relevant policies have an impact on the market [52]. - **Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil**: The current situation is weak, and the expectation has also weakened. Steel prices may decline slightly [54]. - **Silicon Ferroalloy and Manganese Ferroalloy**: The quotations in the main production areas are unstable, and the prices fluctuate widely. The prices of manganese ore at ports have moved down [58]. - **Coke and Coking Coal**: The expectations are fluctuating, and the prices fluctuate widely. Market data such as inventory and price differences have changed [61][62]. - **Log**: The price oscillates repeatedly [64]. 3.3 Chemical Products - **Para - Xylene and PTA**: The medium - term trend remains weak [17]. - **MEG**: The spread between January and May contracts is in a reverse - arbitrage situation [17]. - **Rubber**: The price oscillates [17]. - **Synthetic Rubber**: The trend is weak [17]. - **Asphalt**: The price has declined following the oil price [17]. - **LLDPE and PP**: The trends are weak [17]. - **Caustic Soda**: Do not short in the short term [17]. - **Pulp**: The price oscillates [17]. - **Glass**: The price of raw glass is stable [17]. - **Methanol**: The price is under pressure and oscillates [17]. - **Urea**: The short - term trend is oscillating, and the medium - term trend is under pressure [17]. - **Styrene**: Stop loss on short positions [17]. - **Soda Ash**: The spot market has not changed much [17]. 3.4 Agricultural Products - **Palm Oil**: The driving force from the origin is limited. Attention should be paid to the support at the lower level [20]. - **Soybean Oil**: The price moves within a certain range. Attention should be paid to Sino - US economic and trade relations [20]. - **Soybean Meal and Soybean**: The trade concerns have resurfaced, and the prices may rebound and oscillate [20]. - **Corn**: The price has rebounded [20]. - **Sugar**: The price oscillates within a certain range [20]. - **Egg**: The price oscillates [20]. - **Live Pig**: The bottom of the spot price has not been reached [20]. - **Peanut**: Attention should be paid to the weather in the producing areas [20].

Group 1: Report Summary - The report focuses on the daily performance of various non - ferrous metals on October 14, 2025, including copper, alumina, aluminum, zinc, lead, nickel, stainless steel, tin, industrial silicon, polysilicon, and lithium carbonate, with analysis of market trends, relevant information, trading logic, and strategies [2]. Group 2: Market Review Copper - The Shanghai Copper 2511 contract closed at 84,410 yuan/ton, down 0.47%, and the Shanghai Copper Index reduced its position by 14,799 lots to 551,300 lots. The spot market showed different trends in different regions [2]. Alumina - The Alumina 2601 contract fell 20 yuan to 2,805 yuan/ton. Spot prices in different regions showed a general downward trend [10]. Aluminum - The Shanghai Aluminum 2511 contract remained unchanged at 20,860 yuan/ton. Spot prices in different regions increased [18]. Zinc - The Shanghai Zinc 2511 fell 0.29% to 22,220 yuan/ton, and the Shanghai Zinc Index reduced its position by 2,545 lots to 210,000 lots. The spot market had high - price quotes but poor trading volume [30]. Lead - The Shanghai Lead 2511 fell 0.61% to 17,050 yuan/ton, and the Shanghai Lead Index increased its position by 874 lots to 83,600 lots. The spot price of lead decreased [35]. Nickel - The main contract of Shanghai Nickel NI2511 fell 820 to 120,830 yuan/ton, and the index position increased by 10,910 lots. The spot premiums of different types of nickel changed [41]. Stainless Steel - The main contract of stainless steel SS2512 fell 120 to 12,565 yuan/ton, and the index position increased by 5,815 lots. The spot market prices were stable [49]. Tin - The main contract of Shanghai Tin 2511 closed at 280,430 yuan/ton, down 3,120 yuan/ton or 1.10%, and the position decreased by 1,121 lots to 65,110 lots. The spot price decreased [56]. Industrial Silicon - The main contract of industrial silicon fell. Spot prices of different grades and downstream product prices showed different trends [88]. Polysilicon - The main contract of polysilicon fell. Spot prices of different types of polysilicon and related photovoltaic product prices changed [89]. Lithium Carbonate - The Lithium Carbonate 2511 contract rose 240 to 72,760 yuan/ton, and the index position decreased by 16,830 lots. The spot price decreased [74]. Group 3: Relevant Information Copper - Grasberg has been shut down for nearly a month due to an accident, and its copper concentrate supply may only last until the end of this month. Rio Tinto's Q3 2025 copper production increased year - on - year but decreased quarter - on - quarter [3]. Alumina - There were multiple spot transactions in different regions. The national alumina production capacity and operation situation were reported, and the production of an enterprise in Shanxi was affected by ore shortages [11]. Aluminum - Trump planned to impose additional 100% tariffs on Chinese goods from November 1. China implemented export controls on rare - earth items. China's aluminum exports in September 2025 and the cumulative exports from January to September decreased year - on - year [18]. Zinc - The domestic zinc inventory increased. The International Lead and Zinc Research Group predicted the global refined zinc supply and demand situation for 2025 and 2026 [31]. Lead - The domestic lead inventory decreased. The International Lead and Zinc Research Group predicted the global lead supply and demand situation for 2025 and 2026 [36]. Nickel - A copper - nickel ore exploration right in Gansu was put up for auction. The LME planned to launch a new mechanism for low - carbon metal trading [42]. Stainless Steel - The EU planned to implement a trade policy on stainless steel, and Mexico launched an anti - dumping sunset review investigation on Chinese cold - rolled stainless steel [50]. Tin - A Fed official supported two 25 - basis - point interest rate cuts this year. Peru's tin exports in August and Indonesia's tin exports in September were reported [57]. Industrial Silicon - A South Korean company planned to acquire a stake in a Vietnamese silicon wafer factory [61]. Polysilicon - A South Korean company planned to acquire a stake in a Vietnamese silicon wafer factory. The polysilicon production and demand situation in October was reported [68]. Lithium Carbonate - A company in Qinghai resumed lithium resource development. BYD's battery installation volume in September 2025 increased year - on - year. A company responded to the battery export control policy. CATL refuted rumors about solid - state battery production [76]. Group 4: Trading Logic Copper - Trump's tariff statement and subsequent easing signals affected the market. The supply of copper mines was tight, and the consumption showed a weakening trend [4]. Alumina - The static surplus of alumina was absorbed by downstream inventory, but the surplus trend remained. The profit of alumina factories was affected, and the production dynamics needed attention [13]. Aluminum - The impact of Trump's tariff policy on aluminum prices was expected to be less severe than in April. The global aluminum supply - demand balance was not significantly affected [20]. Zinc - The domestic zinc supply increased, and the consumption was weak. The overseas market was strong, and the pattern of strong overseas and weak domestic was expected to continue [32]. Lead - The current lead supply - demand was weak, but the supply was weaker. The lead price was expected to rise and then fall due to the expected increase in supply in the second half of October [38]. Nickel - The LME nickel inventory increased, and the domestic nickel enterprises had high export enthusiasm. The nickel price was in a shock range, and the Sino - US situation needed attention [43]. Stainless Steel - The stainless steel production in October increased, but the demand was restricted. The social inventory increased slightly, and the price was under pressure [51]. Tin - The market was waiting for the development of Trump's tariff threat. The supply of tin mines was still tight, and the demand was slowly recovering [58]. Industrial Silicon - The production in Xinjiang was affected, and the production in the southwest was expected to decrease in November. The demand was strong in the short term, and the price was expected to fluctuate in the medium term [63]. Polysilicon - The polysilicon production increased in October, and the demand was weak. The cancellation of warehouse receipts in November was the core driving factor for the price adjustment [69]. Lithium Carbonate - The trading volume of lithium carbonate was low, and the price was expected to fluctuate in the current range. The Sino - US situation needed attention [76]. Group 5: Trading Strategies Copper - Unilateral: Short - term consolidation was needed, and a long - at - low strategy was recommended. Arbitrage: Hold the inter - market positive arbitrage and arrange the inter - period positive arbitrage after the domestic inventory starts to decline. Options: Wait and see [7]. Alumina - Unilateral: The price was expected to fluctuate weakly. Arbitrage: Wait and see. Options: Wait and see [16]. Aluminum - Unilateral: The medium - term upward trend remained after the short - term panic - driven decline. Wait and see in the short term. Arbitrage: Wait and see. Options: Wait and see [21]. Zinc - Unilateral: Pay attention to the opening of the export window and arrange short positions at high prices. Arbitrage: Wait and see. Options: Wait and see [33]. Lead - Unilateral: The lead price was expected to rise due to inventory reduction but may fall due to increased supply. Arbitrage: Wait and see. Options: Sell out - of - the - money call options [39]. Nickel - Unilateral: Maintain a wide - range shock. Arbitrage: Wait and see. Options: Sell the wide - straddle combination of the 2511 contract [45]. Stainless Steel - Unilateral: The price was expected to decline in a shock. Arbitrage: Wait and see [52]. Tin - Unilateral: Short - term high - level shock, pay attention to the resumption of production in Myanmar. Options: Wait and see [59]. Industrial Silicon - Unilateral: Buy at the lower end of the range and hold previous long positions. Arbitrage: None. Options: Sell out - of - the - money put options [64]. Polysilicon - Unilateral: Try long positions near the low point of the PS2512 contract in August. Arbitrage: Hold the reverse arbitrage of the 2511 and 2512 contracts. Options: Adjust the previous double - buy strategy, stop profit on the put option and hold the call option [70]. Lithium Carbonate - Unilateral: Fluctuate between 70,000 and 75,000 yuan. Arbitrage: Wait and see. Options: Sell the wide - straddle combination of the 2601 contract [77].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - After continuous gains, high - flying sectors like AI have shown divergence recently, while sectors such as nuclear fusion, chips, and non - ferrous metals have emerged. Although short - term index fluctuations have increased, the long - term strategy is to go long on dips due to policy support for the capital market [4]. - In the fourth quarter, the supply - demand pattern of the bond market may improve. The market is likely to remain volatile under the intertwined bull - bear background of weak domestic demand recovery and improved inflation expectations. Pay attention to the stock - bond seesaw effect [7]. - With the weakening of the US dollar credit and the expectation of the Fed's interest rate cut, maintain a medium - term bullish view on precious metals. However, there is a significant risk of price correction in the short term [9]. - For most metals, factors such as supply - demand changes, cost fluctuations, and market sentiment affect their prices. For example, copper is supported by supply tightening and Fed rate - cut expectations; aluminum is expected to be volatile and strong; zinc is expected to be strong in the short term; and nickel may have a short - term downward exploration but is supported in the long term [12][14][16][18]. - For black building materials, although the current real - world demand for steel is weak, the market's expectation of demand recovery is rising. The price of iron ore may adjust if the downstream situation weakens. Glass is recommended to be treated bullishly in the short term, and soda ash is expected to be range - bound [31][33][35]. - For energy and chemical products, rubber is recommended to go long on dips; for crude oil, wait and see in the short term; methanol and urea can be considered for short - term long positions after a decline; and for some chemical products like PVC and ethylene glycol, the supply - demand situation is weak, and short - term waiting and seeing is recommended [53][55][56][58]. - For agricultural products, the prices of live pigs and eggs are expected to be weak in the short term; soybean meal is expected to be weak and volatile; oils are expected to be strong; sugar is recommended to be shorted on rallies; and cotton is likely to be weak in the short term [77][79][82][84][87][89]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Macro - financial Category Stock Index - **Market News**: The Ministry of Commerce and the General Administration of Customs have imposed export controls on certain items; some foreign entities have been included in the unreliable entity list; some securities firms have adjusted the margin conversion ratios of certain stocks; and the price of spot gold remains high, with some banks adjusting their related businesses [2]. - **Basis Ratio of Stock Index Futures**: The basis ratios of IF, IC, IM, and IH in different contract periods are provided [3]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: After the previous continuous rise, the high - flying sectors have shown divergence, and the short - term index fluctuations have increased. However, the long - term strategy is to go long on dips [4]. Treasury Bonds - **Market News**: The prices of TL, T, TF, and TS main contracts have changed; the daily average sales revenue of the national consumption - related industries during the National Day and Mid - Autumn Festival holidays has increased year - on - year; and export controls have been imposed on some medium - heavy rare earth - related items [5]. - **Liquidity**: The central bank conducted 6120 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, with a net withdrawal of 14513 billion yuan on the day [6]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The manufacturing PMI has rebounded, but the follow - up social financing and money growth may be under pressure. The bond market is expected to be volatile, and pay attention to the stock - bond seesaw effect [7]. Precious Metals - **Market News**: The prices of Shanghai gold and silver have declined, while the prices of COMEX gold and silver have increased. The US government shutdown has affected the release of economic data, and the Fed's meeting minutes show differences in the outlook for interest rates [8][9]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Maintain a medium - term bullish view on precious metals, but pay attention to short - term price corrections [9]. Non - ferrous Metals Category Copper - **Market News**: After the National Day, the copper price continued to be strong. The LME copper inventory increased, and the domestic electrolytic copper social inventory also increased. The spot import loss expanded, and the scrap copper substitution advantage increased [11]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Supply tightening and Fed rate - cut expectations support the copper price, but the short - term upward pace may slow down [12]. Aluminum - **Market News**: On the first day after the National Day, non - ferrous metals generally strengthened. The LME aluminum price rose, and the domestic aluminum inventory increased. The market atmosphere was warm, but the trade situation was still volatile [13]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The aluminum price is expected to be volatile and strong [14]. Zinc - **Market News**: The Shanghai zinc index rose, and the LME zinc price fell. The domestic social inventory increased slightly, and the zinc export window opened [15]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The Shanghai zinc is expected to be strong in the short term [16]. Lead - **Market News**: The Shanghai lead index rose, and the LME lead price also rose. The domestic social inventory decreased slightly [17]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The Shanghai lead is expected to be in a wide - range low - level shock in the short term [17]. Nickel - **Market News**: The nickel price rose significantly. The nickel ore price was stable, the nickel iron price was stable, and the MHP coefficient price increased slightly [18]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The short - term nickel price may decline, but it is supported in the long term. It is recommended to wait and see in the short term and go long on dips [18]. Tin - **Market News**: The tin price was strong. The supply was expected to increase slightly, and the demand in the traditional consumer electronics and home appliance sectors was still weak [21]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The tin price is expected to be high - level volatile in the short term. It is recommended to wait and see [21]. Carbonate Lithium - **Market News**: The carbonate lithium price was stable. The social inventory decreased, and a company obtained mining rights [22]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The supply - demand mismatch has led to a decrease in inventory. Pay attention to the supply and demand situation and the market atmosphere [22]. Alumina - **Market News**: The alumina index rose. The domestic and overseas prices changed, and the import window opened [23]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The alumina market is expected to be volatile. Wait and see for the macro - mood resonance [24]. Stainless Steel - **Market News**: The stainless steel price rose. The raw material prices were stable, and the social inventory decreased slightly [25]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The stainless steel price is expected to be range - bound. Pay attention to the RKAB approval progress [26]. Cast Aluminum Alloy - **Market News**: The cast aluminum alloy price rose. The trading volume increased, and the inventory increased slightly [27]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The downstream consumption is in the peak season, but the delivery pressure of the near - term contract is large, and the upside space is limited [28]. Black Building Materials Category Steel - **Market News**: The prices of rebar and hot - rolled coil rose. The inventory of rebar decreased, and the inventory of hot - rolled coil remained unchanged [30]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The current real - world demand for steel is weak, but the market's expectation of demand recovery is rising. Pay attention to policy signals [31]. Iron Ore - **Market News**: The iron ore price rose. The overseas shipment decreased, and the domestic arrival increased. The steel mill's profit rate continued to decline [32]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The iron ore price may adjust if the downstream situation weakens. Pay attention to the "Silver October" performance after restocking [33]. Glass and Soda Ash - **Market News**: The glass price rose, and the inventory increased. The soda ash price fell, and the inventory decreased [34][36]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Glass is recommended to be treated bullishly in the short term, and soda ash is expected to be range - bound [35][37]. Manganese Silicon and Ferrosilicon - **Market News**: The manganese silicon price rose slightly, and the ferrosilicon price fell slightly. The prices are in a shock range [38]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The black sector may first decline and then rise. Manganese silicon and ferrosilicon are likely to follow the black sector's trend [39][40][41]. Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon - **Market News**: The industrial silicon price was stable, and the polysilicon price fell. The supply and demand of industrial silicon changed little, and the polysilicon inventory was limited [42][44]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Industrial silicon is expected to be range - bound in the short term, and polysilicon may improve if the leading enterprises conduct maintenance [43][46]. Energy and Chemical Category Rubber - **Market News**: The rubber price stabilized. The tire production rate decreased, and the inventory decreased slightly. The spot price changed [48][50][52]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Go long on dips and partially build a hedging position [53]. Crude Oil - **Market News**: The crude oil price fell, and the inventories of related products changed. The US EIA data showed inventory changes [54]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Wait and see in the short term and verify the OPEC's export - price - support intention [55]. Methanol - **Market News**: The methanol price fell, and the inventory increased. The supply was high, and the demand was weak [56]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Consider short - term long positions after a decline [56]. Urea - **Market News**: The urea price fell, and the inventory increased. The supply was high, and the demand was weak [57]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Consider long positions at a low price [58]. Pure Benzene and Styrene - **Market News**: The pure benzene price was stable, and the styrene price fell. The supply and demand changed, and the inventory increased [59]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The styrene price may stop falling due to the seasonal peak season [60]. PVC - **Market News**: The PVC price fell, and the inventory increased. The supply was strong, and the demand was weak [61]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The PVC market is bearish in the medium term. Consider short positions [63]. Ethylene Glycol - **Market News**: The ethylene glycol price fell, and the inventory increased. The supply was high, and the demand was weak [64]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Wait and see in the short term [65]. PTA - **Market News**: The PTA price fell, and the inventory increased. The supply was affected by maintenance, and the demand was stable [66]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Wait and see in the short term [67]. Para - Xylene - **Market News**: The para - xylene price rose, and the inventory increased. The supply was high, and the demand was affected by PTA maintenance [68]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Wait and see in the short term and pay attention to the terminal and PTA valuation [69]. Polyethylene (PE) - **Market News**: The PE price fell, and the inventory decreased. The supply was limited, and the demand was expected to increase [70]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The PE price may rise in the long term [71]. Polypropylene (PP) - **Market News**: The PP price fell, and the inventory was high. The supply was large, and the demand was weak [72]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The PP market is in a weak supply - demand situation, and the inventory pressure is high [74]. Agricultural Products Category Live Pigs - **Market News**: The live pig price continued to fall. The slaughtering and sales situation was not good [76]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The live pig price is expected to be weak in the short term. Short the near - term contract and conduct reverse hedging [77]. Eggs - **Market News**: The egg price generally fell. The supply was greater than the demand, and the market confidence was low [78]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The egg price is expected to be weak in the short term. Wait for the bottom - building [79]. Soybean and Rapeseed Meal - **Market News**: The CBOT soybean price fell slightly. The domestic soybean meal price was stable, and the import cost was affected by multiple factors [80][81]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The domestic soybean meal supply pressure is large. It is expected to be weak and volatile in the short term [82]. Oils - **Market News**: Indonesia is promoting the B50 biodiesel plan. The domestic oil price rose, and the inventory may decrease [83]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The oil price is expected to be strong. Go long on dips [84]. Sugar - **Market News**: The sugar price rebounded slightly. The Brazilian sugar production data was released, and the port waiting quantity increased [85][86]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The sugar price is expected to be bearish in the long term. Short on rallies in the fourth quarter [87]. Cotton - **Market News**: The cotton price rebounded slightly. The spot price fell, and the acquisition price was lower than last year [88]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The cotton price is likely to be weak in the short term. There is cost support at the bottom [89].