Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints of the Report - The supply side of lead is affected by price uncertainty, resulting in a decline in the operating rate and output of primary lead smelters. The continuous decline in lead prices has expanded the loss pressure of secondary lead, and secondary lead smelters have been forced to lower their operating rates due to losses and raw material constraints. The demand side has weak support for lead prices, with overall light market transactions. Overseas inventories are decreasing, but the decline is small, and demand is significantly affected by tariffs. Domestic inventories are slightly increasing, and overseas prices are suppressing the upward space of domestic prices. The lead concentrate processing fee remains low, which has an impact on the resumption of production of secondary and primary lead. It is recommended to short on rallies [2]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of the main Shanghai lead contract is 16,860 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan; the LME 3 - month lead quotation is 2,000 US dollars/ton, down 4.5 US dollars. The 06 - 07 month contract spread of Shanghai lead is - 25 yuan/ton, down 25 yuan. The Shanghai lead open interest is 68,494 lots, an increase of 835 lots. The net position of the top 20 in Shanghai lead is - 1,875 lots, an increase of 3 lots. The Shanghai lead warehouse receipts are 49,921 tons, an increase of 502 tons. The SHFE inventory is 55,472 tons, an increase of 5,968 tons, and the LME lead inventory is 248,850 tons, a decrease of 1,825 tons [2]. 现货市场 - The spot price of 1 lead in Shanghai Non - ferrous Metals Network is 16,725 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan; the spot price of 1 lead in Yangtze River Non - ferrous Metals Market is 16,890 yuan/ton, down 60 yuan. The basis of the lead main contract is - 135 yuan/ton, down 40 yuan. The LME lead premium (0 - 3) is - 4.45 US dollars/ton, an increase of 0.38 US dollars. The price of lead concentrate (50% - 60%) in Jiyuan is 16,078 yuan, an increase of 149 yuan. The price of domestic secondary lead (≥98.5%) is 16,630 yuan/ton, down 80 yuan [2]. Upstream Situation - The WBMS lead supply - demand balance is - 18,700 tons, an increase of 7,100 tons. The number of secondary lead production enterprises is 68, an increase of 3. The capacity utilization rate of secondary lead is 54.41%, an increase of 18.29 percentage points. The monthly output of secondary lead is 224,200 tons, a decrease of 67,500 tons. The average operating rate of primary lead is 74.66%, a decrease of 2.85 percentage points, and the weekly output of primary lead is 34,500 tons, a decrease of 800 tons. The processing fee of lead concentrate (60%) at major ports is - 20 US dollars/kiloton, unchanged. The ILZSG lead supply - demand balance is 16,400 tons, an increase of 48,800 tons. The global lead ore output is 399,700 tons, a decrease of 3,700 tons. The monthly lead ore import volume is 119,700 tons, an increase of 24,800 tons [2]. Industrial Situation - The monthly refined lead import volume is 815.37 tons, a decrease of 1,021.76 tons. The domestic average processing fee of lead concentrate to the factory is 720 yuan/ton, unchanged. The monthly refined lead export volume is 2,109.62 tons, an increase of 223.33 tons. The average price of waste batteries in the market is 10,082.14 yuan/ton, down 46.43 yuan [2]. Downstream Situation - The monthly export volume of batteries is 41.45 million, a decrease of 425,000. The average price of lead - antimony alloy (for batteries, containing 2% antimony) is 20,750 yuan/ton, down 125 yuan. The Shenwan industry index of batteries is 1,647.12 points, an increase of 2.61 points. The monthly automobile output is 3.0446 million, a decrease of 454,000. The monthly new - energy vehicle output is 1.647 million, an increase of 73,000 [2]. Industry News - In April 2025, the added value of the non - ferrous metal smelting and rolling processing industry increased by 7.5% year - on - year, and the cumulative added value from January to April increased by 6.9% year - on - year. The output of ten non - ferrous metals in April was 6.76 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 3.1%; the cumulative output from January to April was 26.6 million tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 2.3%. Among them, the output of electrolytic aluminum in April was 3.75 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 4.2%; the output of electrolytic aluminum from January to April was 14.79 million tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 3.4%. Moody's downgraded the US sovereign credit rating from Aaa to Aa1 and adjusted the outlook from "negative" to "stable" [2].

沪铅产业日报 2025-05-15 | | | 原生铅复工起到了部分影响。综上所述，沪铅价格短期可能受到去库影响小幅反弹，但反弹高度预计有限 免责声明 ，后续依旧受到需求影响高位回落，注意关税政策变化带来的新增影响。操作上建议，逢高空为主。 本报告中的信息均来源于公开可获得资料，瑞达期货股份有限公司力求准确可靠，但对这些信息的准确性及完整性不做任 何保证，据此投资，责任自负。本报告不构成个人投资建议，客户应考虑本报告中的任何意见或建议是否符合其特定状况。本 报告版权仅为我公司所有，未经书面许可，任何机构和个人不得以任何形式翻版、复制和发布。如引用、刊发，需注明出处为 瑞达期货股份有限公司研究院，且不得对本报告进行有悖原意的引用、删节和修改。 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货市场 | 沪铅主力合约收盘价(日,元/吨) | 16975 | 40 LME3个月铅报价(日,美元/吨) | 1996.5 | 7.5 | | | 06-07月合约价差:沪铅(日,元/吨) | 0 | 15 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the lead industry is Neutral [3] 2. Core View of the Report - Post - holiday, the terminal consumption of lead - acid batteries remains weak, and some manufacturers continue to consume inventory. With the current off - season, lead prices may stay relatively weak. However, due to the improved market sentiment from the progress in Sino - US trade negotiations, lead prices may be relatively resistant to decline under the influence of the non - ferrous metals sector. The recommended operation strategy is to buy low and sell high [3] 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Market News and Important Data Spot Market - On May 12, 2025, the LME lead spot premium was $4.69 per ton. The SMM1 lead ingot spot price rose by 125 yuan/ton to 16,750 yuan/ton. SMM Shanghai lead spot premium changed by 25 yuan/ton to - 15.00 yuan/ton, SMM Guangdong lead price rose by 150 yuan/ton to 16,800 yuan/ton, SMM Henan lead price rose by 225 yuan/ton to 16,800 yuan/ton, and SMM Tianjin lead price rose by 225 yuan/ton to 16,875 yuan/ton. The lead refined - scrap price difference remained unchanged at - 25 yuan/ton. The price of waste electric vehicle batteries rose by 25 yuan/ton to 10,275 yuan/ton, waste white shells rose by 25 yuan/ton to 10,175 yuan/ton, and waste black shells remained unchanged at 10,525 yuan/ton [1] Futures Market - On May 12, 2025, the main contract of Shanghai lead opened at 16,900 yuan/ton, closed at 16,995 yuan/ton, up 190 yuan/ton. The trading volume was 42,622 lots, an increase of 13,667 lots. The holding volume was 33,309 lots, a decrease of 145 lots. The intraday price fluctuated between 16,800 - 17,015 yuan/ton. In the night session, it opened at 16,940 yuan/ton and closed at 16,920 yuan/ton, a 0.03% decline from the afternoon close. After the basis widened, some Henan suppliers' discount to the SHFE lead 2506 contract slightly expanded to 180 - 160 yuan/ton. Hunan smelters maintained a 30 - yuan/ton discount to the SMM1 lead price, and traders' discount was about 50 yuan/ton. Market transactions improved compared to last Friday, with downstream buyers mainly for rigid demand and some enterprises restocking slightly [2] Inventory - On May 12, 2025, the SMM lead ingot inventory was 47,000 tons, a decrease of 40 tons from last week. As of May 12, the LME lead inventory was 251,800 tons, a decrease of 1,725 tons from the previous trading day [2]

Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the lead industry is neutral [3] Core Viewpoints - In the short - term, the lead market has weak supply and demand, with significant upward pressure, but the downside space for lead prices is not expected to be large. It is expected to trade in a range. Battery companies, especially large ones, still have room to replenish inventory, which provides support when prices fall. In the second quarter, the supply of waste batteries is in a low - season. As long as demand does not collapse, the cost support of waste batteries remains significant. In the medium - to - long - term, buying at low levels can be considered, as subsequent consumption growth is expected to provide support [4] Summary by Directory Trading Aspects (Price, Spread, Inventory, Capital, Transaction, Position) - **Price**: The closing price of SHFE Lead Main Contract last week was 16,805 yuan, with a weekly increase of 0.21%. The closing price of LmeS - Lead 3 was 1,950, with a decrease of 0.36%. The night - session closing price of SHFE Lead Main Contract was 16,880, with a night - session increase of 0.45% [7] - **Transaction and Position Changes**: The trading volume of SHFE Lead Main Contract last Friday was 28,955 lots, a decrease of 5,479 lots from the previous week. The position was 33,454 lots, a decrease of 2,652 lots. The trading volume of LmeS - Lead 3 was 4,140 lots, an increase of 1,325 lots from the previous week. The position was 149,724 lots, an increase of 2,660 lots [7] - **Spread Changes**: The LME lead premium changed from - 15.21 to 4.69, an increase of 19.9. The spread between nearby and first - continuous contracts changed from - 40 to 20, an increase of 60 [7] - **Inventory Changes**: SHFE lead warrant inventory increased by 291 to 38,966 lots. SHFE total lead inventory increased by 2,718 to 49,504 lots. Social inventory increased by 2,200 to 47,500 tons. LME lead inventory decreased by 10,700 to 253,425 tons, and the proportion of cancelled warrants was 52.40%, a decrease of 2.50% [7] Lead Supply (Lead Concentrate, Waste Battery, Primary Lead, Recycled Lead) - **Lead Concentrate**: The import volume, production, inventory, and processing fees of lead concentrate are presented in the data. The profit of imported and domestic lead concentrates is also shown [24][25] - **Primary Lead**: Some smelters in Jiangxi, Guangxi, and Shandong are under maintenance. The weekly production and operating rate of primary lead are provided in the historical data [6][26] - **Recycled Lead**: Recycled lead smelters are in a loss - making situation, with a loss of about 600 yuan/ton. Due to tight raw material supply and losses, most recycled lead smelters reduce production through maintenance, and the weekly production has further decreased [6] - **Waste Battery**: The supply of waste batteries is tight during the consumption low - season, and the price is firm [6] Lead Demand (Lead - Acid Battery, End - User) - **Lead - Acid Battery**: The battery market has entered the consumption low - season, with continuous accumulation of finished - product inventory and pressure on the downstream operating rate. It is expected that the low - season consumption will last throughout May, and there may be a possibility of a mid - year sales rush in June [6] - **End - User**: Data on the production of automobiles, motorcycles, and the actual consumption of lead are presented, reflecting the demand situation of the end - user market [33]

Report Industry Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Weak" [3] Core Viewpoints of the Report - In the short - term, demand is significantly weak, and prices are expected to run weakly. In the medium - term, lead prices will be under pressure in the second quarter, but the downside space is not expected to be large. It is advisable to adopt a strategy of decreasing high - points in range operations. [7] Summary According to Related Catalogs Trading Aspects (Price, Spread, Inventory, Funds, Transaction, Position) - **Price and Spread**: The closing price of SHFE Lead Main Contract last week was 16,945 yuan, with a weekly increase of 0.30%. The closing price of LmeS - Lead 3 was 1,870 dollars, with a decrease of -1.79%. The night - session closing price of SHFE Lead Main Contract was 16,855 yuan, with a decrease of -0.53%. The LME lead cash - to - three - month spread was -17.91 dollars last Friday, a decrease of 2.7 dollars compared to the previous week. The near - month to continuous - first contract spread was 5 yuan last Friday, a decrease of 35 yuan compared to the previous week. [8] - **Inventory**: The SHFE lead warehouse receipt inventory decreased by 9,849 tons, the total SHFE lead inventory decreased by 11,406 tons, the social inventory decreased by 16,700 tons, and the LME lead inventory decreased by 7,550 tons. The LME lead cancellation warrant ratio was 57.45%, an increase of 14.32% compared to the previous week. [8] - **Transaction and Position**: The trading volume of SHFE Lead Main Contract last week was 37,979 lots, an increase of 20,126 lots compared to the previous week. The position was 38,733 lots, an increase of 12,312 lots. The trading volume of LmeS - Lead 3 was 2,178 lots, a decrease of 154 lots, and the position was 148,527 lots, a decrease of 2,971 lots. [8] Lead Supply (Lead Concentrate, Waste Battery, Primary Lead, Recycled Lead) - **Lead Concentrate**: The import volume of lead concentrate, the production of Chinese lead concentrate, and the import volume of silver ore sand and its concentrates are presented in the historical data from 2021 - 2025. The inventory of lead concentrate in Lianyungang, the operating rate of lead concentrate, the domestic and imported lead concentrate treatment charges (TC), and the profit of lead concentrate are also shown. [24][25] - **Primary Lead**: The production of primary lead has increased due to the end of maintenance at a smelter in Henan. The historical production and weekly operating rate data from 2021 - 2025 are provided. [7][26] - **Recycled Lead**: There are significant losses in recycled lead production, and the output has continued to decline marginally. Due to the low output of waste batteries in the off - season and tight raw material supply, the raw material inventory is low. Recently, the production reduction area has expanded, and smelters in many places such as Anhui and Jiangxi have reduced their operations. [7] Lead Demand (Lead - Acid Battery, End - User) - **Lead - Acid Battery**: Consumption is gradually transitioning to the off - season. The inventory of end - user dealers' batteries is at a seasonal high, and restocking is generally restricted, leading to a seasonal increase in the finished - product inventory of battery enterprises. The export volume, operating rate, and inventory days of lead - acid batteries from 2021 - 2025 are presented. [7][32] - **End - User**: The production of automobiles and motorcycles from 2021 - 2025 is shown, and the actual consumption of lead is also presented. [34]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report. 2. Core View - The supply - side production of lead has increased, while the demand side shows weakness. The downstream manufacturers are still waiting and watching. The high foreign inventory restricts the upward movement of lead prices. The short - term rebound of Shanghai lead is expected to end. It is recommended to lightly short the Shanghai lead main contract 2505 at around 17,000 yuan/ton with a stop - loss at 17,300 yuan/ton [2]. 3. Summary by Directory Futures Market - The closing price of the Shanghai lead main contract was 16,825 yuan/ton, down 25 yuan; the LME 3 - month lead quote was 1,916.5 dollars/ton, up 2.5 dollars. The 05 - 06 month contract spread of Shanghai lead was 20 yuan/ton, unchanged. The Shanghai lead open interest was 80,572 lots, up 701 lots. The net position of the top 20 in Shanghai lead was 1,540 lots, down 458 lots. The Shanghai lead warehouse receipts were 58,378 tons, down 145 tons. The SHFE inventory was 62,646 tons, down 3,150 tons; the LME lead inventory was 257,325 tons, up 9,900 tons [2]. Spot Market - The spot price of 1 lead in Shanghai Non - ferrous Metals Network was 16,725 yuan/ton, down 100 yuan; in the Yangtze River Non - ferrous Metals Market, it was 16,910 yuan/ton, down 100 yuan. The basis of the lead main contract was - 100 yuan/ton, down 75 yuan; the LME lead spread (0 - 3) was - 21.91 dollars/ton, up 1.16 dollars [2]. Upstream Situation - The price of lead concentrate (50% - 60%) in Jiyuan was 16,004 yuan, down 275 yuan. The domestic recycled lead price (≥98.5%) was 16,640 yuan/ton, down 130 yuan. The number of recycled lead production enterprises was 68, up 3. The capacity utilization rate of recycled lead was 54.41%, up 18.29 percentage points. The monthly output of recycled lead was 22.42 tons, down 6.75 tons. The average weekly operating rate of primary lead was 72.61%, down 9.58 percentage points; the weekly output of primary lead was 3.21 tons, down 0.23 tons. The processing fee of lead concentrate (60%) at major ports was - 20 dollars/kiloton, unchanged. The global lead mine output was 399.7 kilotons, down 3.7 kilotons. The lead ore import volume was 11.97 tons, up 2.48 tons [2]. Industry Situation - The monthly import volume of refined lead was 815.37 tons, down 1,021.76 tons; the export volume was 2,109.62 tons, up 223.33 tons. The average domestic processing fee of lead concentrate at the factory was 720 yuan/ton, unchanged. The average price of waste batteries in the market was 9,978.57 yuan/ton, down 3.57 yuan [2]. Downstream Situation - The monthly export volume of batteries was 41,450,000, down 425,000. The average price of lead - antimony alloy (for batteries, with 2% antimony) was 20,750 yuan/ton, down 75 yuan. The Shenwan industry index of batteries was 1,586.97 points, up 14.02 points. The monthly automobile output was 3.4986 million, up 51,000; the monthly new - energy automobile output was 1.647 million, up 73,000 [2]. Industry News - The US Treasury Secretary said there was no evidence of sovereign investors selling US assets. The EU trade commissioner was in talks in Washington, and progress was made in US - EU tariff negotiations. The New York Fed's 1 - year inflation expectation rose to 3.58%, and the 3 - year expectation remained at 3%. The Fed governor said in a large - scale tariff scenario, earlier and larger - scale interest rate cuts were preferred in case of significant economic slowdown. There were still differences in reaching a Gaza cease - fire agreement. OPEC adjusted down the global crude oil demand growth rate and economic growth rate expectations. JPMorgan Chase lowered the 2025 Brent crude oil price forecast from 73 dollars/barrel to 66 dollars/barrel [2]. View Summary - The supply of recycled refined lead and electrolytic lead increased. The price of 1 lead dropped 100 yuan/ton, and the price of waste batteries in some areas was adjusted by 50 - 200 yuan/ton. The willingness of refined lead holders to sell increased, but most held firm quotes and few sold. The price of recycled refined lead was 100 yuan/ton lower than that of primary lead. Downstream battery manufacturers preferentially purchased primary lead for rigid demand, and the transaction of recycled refined lead was light. In the traditional off - season of April, new orders decreased, and enterprises adopted a production - based - on - sales strategy [2].